The calendar shows a fair amount of economic data in the coming week, but attention is likely to be focused abroad. After many years (some would say decades) of percolating, the issue of Greece and the Eurozone is coming to a conclusion.

While few expect a change in Fed policy at this week’s FOMC meeting, it will still be the center of attention. With last week’s interest rate jump, I expect the theme to be: Is the market sending the Fed a message?

This week’s economic calendar includes the most important housing data, but the market context will prove irresistible to the pundits. Stocks continue at the top of the trading range, and even broke through for a few minutes. Even more interesting is the bond market. Interest rates decisively broke their trading range and also showed a lot of volatility.

This week’s economic news is mostly jobs-related. The Fed has cited employment as the most important factor in future rate decisions. There is plenty of FedSpeak on tap. Pundits love to talk about the Fed. Voila!

We have the makings of a volatility cocktail! It is a huge week for economic data. It is the heart of earnings season, with Apple’s report leading off the week. The Fed has a two-day meeting culminating with a policy announcement. Global economic threats continue. Which of these will be the theme?

I expect the supposed worries of Friday to prove unwarranted – an idea supported by late-day Friday trading. The real focus will quickly turn to earnings and housing data.

The year-over-year growth rate for forward earnings has once again turned positive. We can and should be on the watch for a true recession – the source of major earnings declines. The talk about an “earnings recession” should not be a source of worry.

After a week loaded with economic data there are plenty of fresh economic worries. In addition, the Fed seems ready to act in spite of some weak data. This means that good news is (finally) good news, and bad news will be bad. For economic and market skeptics, it signals a market shift that they see as long overdue.

No one has a good, verifiable, real-time track record at predicting small corrections. Meanwhile, many investors get sidelined because they read an article or saw a chart suggesting that “the big one” was right ahead. Some people have been waiting for years for the correction so that they can get back in the stock market. Even when the correction finally comes they will be losers – and that assumes the ability to pull the trigger when things look bad!

In the absence of real data it is easy and tempting to speculate. Unlike last week, the week ahead features an avalanche of data – more in both quantity and importance than we have seen in a month. With some recent significant reports showing economic improvement we expect a change of focus.

Anyone who wants to speculate on what the Fed is thinking must include some actual evidence from past transcripts. If, for example, you want to suggest that the Fed “wants a market correction” (you can’t make this stuff up) then you have to find at least one historical example where some participant raised that idea. Otherwise, shut up!

The exact timing of the first Fed rate increase does not matter. There is a difference between tight monetary policy and slightly less accommodative policy. Markets do quite well in the early stages of rising rates, especially when starting from a low initial point. This will be ignored by many who will invoke “Don’t fight the Fed.” This will be the fundamental battleground between traders and investors, bears and bulls, and various political types – perhaps lasting for years. The end of the business or stock market cycle is not imminent. Bull markets do not die of old age.

The economic calendar includes much more housing data than we normally see in a single week. With Fed Chair Yellen’s Congressional testimony and the GDP revisions also on tap, I expect many observers to be linking these topics. They will ask:

I do not know whether we have reached a bottom in energy prices, but I have identified two important themes.

With a modest schedule of data releases, we can expect more analysis of last week’s news. Trading in several markets changed course rather abruptly. With traders poised to spot any change in trend, the question will be whether this shift is for real.

This is a landslide week for economic data, and earnings season is in full swing. Last week’s Q4 GDP report and overall market tone has revived deflation concerns. I expect market participants to be watching each economic release closely, asking: Are there signs of incipient economic weakness?

This week?s potential themes all defy prediction. I do not know what will happen in Greece. I question the preliminary analysis of the ECB moves. The earnings stories have been a bit better than market forecasts, but with little reaction.

I do not know how earnings season will play out this week. My list of things to watch is good, but the market seems to be demanding a parlay of positive indications: Beating the whisper number for earnings; Beating the revenue expectations; Business growth ?organic, not from mergers or purchases; Solid ?quality of earnings? with no gimmicks or accounting moves; A credible, positive outlook.

There are many reasons for some to own bonds, but the extremely low interest rates suggest something beyond that. I suggest a leveraged arbitrage with Europe and Japan. Please note: This is basically the opposite of the 1998 carry trade.

I am not a big fan of seasonal effects unless there is a logical underlying reason. The Presidential cycle logic rests upon taking unpopular actions early in the term while emphasizing economic stimulus later. That does not have much relevance in the current environment. The January tax loss effect is more persuasive, especially in years where there are some clear losers to sell. That was true in many sectors this year.

With little fresh news during the holidays and many pros on vacation, I expect a time of reflection and prediction. Publications hungry for content and TV producers needing to fill slots will highlight forecasts of any and all flavors. This happens every year, but the mid-week holidays are pushing it a little earlier than usual,

The investment conclusion is opportunity in non-energy cyclical stocks, including basic materials, technology, and consumer discretionary. There are also energy names that are part of the knee-jerk reaction, but which do not necessarily suffer from lower oil prices. These include refiners and some of the large integrated oil companies that need to replace reserves. (Barrons also suggests oil tanker stocks storage needed!)

The schedule for data releases is lighter than usual. The calendar year is about to end. The market continues to set records. The stage is set for the annual question: Will there be a Santa Claus rally in stocks?

There is no investment edge from repeating what you read in the morning paper. Here was my list still worth watching: Geo-political that is not on the current radar a true black swan. An increase in the PCE index that was not accompanied by strong economic growth. Wage increases that were not accompanied by strong economic growth. Declining profit margins that were not accompanied by strong economic growth and increased revenues. An increase in the chances for a business cycle peak (the official definition of a recession). Remote at this point. An increase in financial stress t

It may not be the exact bottom for energy stocks, but they are among the cheapest on a P/E basis. There is a lot of bad future news in current commodity prices, so the risk/reward balance has shifted. Many seem to start with the commodity prices and infer future economic weakness. This method is unreliable with a lot of false signals. I prefer to begin with economic data and then find the most attractive stocks. I provide more detail in Circular Reasoning about Commodities, including why I favor ESV and FCX.

Pulling this all together, Abnormal Returns explains what the individual investor should do create a personal margin of safety. Tadas uses his broad knowledge and experience to pull together advice from several leading sources. If you had followed this approach over the last few years, you would have been able to stick with your program during the tough times. It will be of equal help in the future.

Was that the bottom? Nearly everyone is trying to time the market, so the financial media will focus on remaining risk versus signals of a bottom.

Last week featured a low signal to noise ratio speech after speech, but little fresh information. This week heralds the start of earnings season. While we have a normal measure of government data, market participants will carefully parse the announcements and conference calls. This week will be all about earnings.

Last week was all about data. This week will be the opposite. The calendar already dished up the big news, and the major earnings reports are still a week away. Meanwhile, we have more conferences and speeches than I can remember seeing for many months. For those of us who think of data as the signal and politicians and pundits as noise, we must get ready for a low ratio! This week will emphasize commentary rather than data, with world leaders, Fed types, and pundits all joining in.

Most potential stock investors have been bruised by events over the last decade. They are receptive to a message of fear, and many pundits are happy to satisfy their urges. Calling for a major market turn can be very profitable for the pundit. This is true even if the prediction is very early and the pundit never signals when to shift back.

If you could know one thing about stocks in the coming year, it would be what to expect from corporate earnings. The Q4 2013 reports will provide a preview, with attention starting this week.

Suppose you knew -- right now, at the start of the week -- that the payroll employment report would show an extreme number. With 200K jobs expected, suppose it were to be 350K? Or 50K? If you had advance information from Mr. Beeks would you even know what to do?

Regular readers of my "Weighing the Week Ahead" series know that I occasionally give the Silver Bullet Award. This recognizes writers who take it upon themselves to debunk dangerously misleading financial analysis. Their often thankless work reminds me of the Lone Ranger, whose adventures often upheld the notion that "...that all things change but truth, and that truth alone, lives on forever."

Sometimes the calendar of news and events makes it easy to predict what will grab our attention in the week ahead. In the last few weeks leading up to the Fed tapering announcement, I highlighted the following.

You might think that considering money supply data would be easy and non-controversial. You would be wrong! Michael Pento, most recently affiliated with Euro Pacific, well known as an aggressive advocate in both print and broadcast media. That is probably an understatement given his controversial nature and style of engagement. Most people would view him as an aggressive advocate for the viewpoint that inflation is spiraling and the Fed is responsible. To set the stage, he compares the US Dollar to Enron shares in 2001.

We are currently at the unusual tipping point. The emerging consensus about improving economic prospects is having two effects: higher long-term bond yields and more confidence in earnings. The implication is that stocks will get a higher multiple in 2011 as confidence improves. This is not merely speculation, but a conclusion based upon the data cited.

Buying stocks today has more upside than at the bottom in the Spring of 2009. Since many of the major issues are off of the table, there is even less risk. Since many issues remain, stocks are still cheap. Successful investment advisors who have beaten these averages over a long time period may do even better. There is an extra kicker: The political dynamic has changed for the better.

Both David Rosenberg and Doug Short have used the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading index as a justification for their predictions of another recession. The problem is that the WLI itself is, by the design of the makers, a black box. Prieur du Plessis identified some of the index's likely elements in a recent series of articles. He concluded that much of the forecast is based upon the stock market, the bond market and the money supply. If someone told you that these three factors suggested 80 percent odds of a recession, would you be convinced?

In the economic blogosphere, errors in fact or analysis persist indefinitely. This is especially true when the erroneous statement reinforces existing perceptions, or when the writer adds a table or chart or includes a lot of data to create a false sense of authority. A recent newsletter from Millennium Wave president and prominent financial blogger John Mauldin, for instance, makes several fundamental errors with regards to unemployment statistics that make labor markets seem much worse than they really are.