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The Philosophy of Tops
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Everyone kept saying a top is not in place yet. They persistently pointed to the normally reached levels of this or that statistic that were not yet there to reinforce their desire to remain bullish...I have used this quote from Justin Mamis (historian, author, and stock market guru), many times during the years. I use it again this week since we have arrived at my major timing point of July 19th, which for months I have suggested represents the best potential for the first meaningful decline of the year.
Rosebud?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Produced in 1941, the movie Citizen Kane is heralded as one of the best movies ever made. It was one of the first to depict the American Dream, and materialism, as less than desirable and therefore causes one to contemplate what actually constitutes a life? Indeed, as a child the central character, Charles Foster Kane, is living in rural Colorado in a boarding house run by his mother (Mary).
Jobs, the Fed, and Long-Term Interest Rates
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The June Employment report showed a labor market that is far from fully recovered, but appears to be well on its way. Federal Reserve policymakers are not going to react to any one report, but the trend in nonfarm payrolls has remained strong. Is that enough to ease up on the gas pedal? Perhaps. However, it should still be some time before the Fed has to hit the brakes.
Failure to Communicate, Part 2
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The financial markets have begun to reassess Fed Chairman Bernankes monetary policy comments. Several Fed officials spoke last week, each echoing Bernankes key messages: 1) policy will remain data-dependent, 2) tapering is not tightening, and 3) a rise in the federal funds target rate is a long time off. With an emphasis on data-dependence, the economic figures should get more scrutiny from the markets. Still, theres a sense that hope plays a major role the Feds economic outlook.
T-i-m-b-e-r-r-r!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Many investors have stepped into the bucket, or left the game altogether. Recall that stepping into the bucket is when a batter steps away from home plate on his forward swing, usually in response to the fear of getting hit in the head by the ball. The Wall Street parallel is that it seems one of the hardest things to do is something you may not have been trained in at an early age.
Welcome Back, Mr. Bond
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Weve been expecting you Mr. Bond. The phrase is itself a variant and joins the phrase Play it again Sam as a phrase attributed to a film or TV series. I have used said quip over the past few years, having been wrong-footedly expecting a backup in interest rates. While I did finally target the yield low of last July, the ensuing rate rise has been far slower than I would have thought, that is until the past few weeks.
What We've Got Here is (a) Failure to Communicate
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
In his press briefing following the June 19 FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Bernanke outlined how the evolution of the economic outlook will drive policy decisions in the months ahead. The key messages are that monetary policy will remain data-dependent, that tapering is not tightening, and that higher short-term interest rates are still a long way off.
The Game of Risk
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Ten years ago the COMP was changing hands around 5132. It is now trading at 3423 for a 13-year loss of some 33.3%. Meanwhile, over that same timeframe, the earnings of the S&P 500 are up 83%, nominal GDP is better by some 57.6%, and interest rates are substantially below where they were back then. If you are a college professor such statistics do not foot with your teachings because professors tend to believe stock returns are all about earnings and interest rates. I concur, but would add the caveat, That is if you live long enough.
Dialing Down
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The financial markets have gyrated in recent weeks on fears that Federal Reserve policymakers will taper the rate of asset purchases. The rise in long-term interest rates and increased market volatility are hard to justify based on the discussion of possible changes in the Fed asset purchase program alone. No change in monetary policy is expected at this weeks Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Thinking About Thinking?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
I think a lot about thinking in an attempt to improve my ability to make good decisions. I also work hard to avoid linear thinking, which tends to extend present conditions linearly into the future. Such thinking caused investors to ignore the Dow Theory sell signal of September 1999 with portfolio consequences that are now legend. That same thinking occurred in November of 2007, concurrent with another Dow Theory sell signal, with similar portfolio consternations. Ladies and gentlemen, economic changes, and for that matter stock market changes, tend t
Never on a Friday
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Over the past 10 years there have been many Hindenburg Omens triggered, but to my knowledge only one of them has actually worked (The Wall Street Journal 8/23/2010 article states the accuracy is only 25%, looking at the period from 1985). Actually, the last Hindenburg signal (December 2012) proved to be an exceptionally good point to buy stocks. I expect this Omen will prove to be yet another false signal because the McClellan Oscillator is just about as oversold as it ever gets.
Filling in the 2Q13 Picture and Looking Ahead
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Were now two-thirds of the way through 2Q13. However, the second quarter economic picture is still sketchy. We have some data for April, which is subject to revision. Figures for May will begin arriving this week. Despite the cloudy near-term economic picture, the financial markets are looking ahead to better growth in the second half of the year.
The Week in Fiscal and Monetary Policy
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The financial markets were more than a bit confused by the minutes of the April 30 May 1 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Some Fed officials wanted to begin tapering the rate of asset purchases as early as June. However, that wasnt a majority opinion. Fed Chairman Bernankes testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress was balanced, but strongly suggested that monetary policy is unlikely to be tightened anytime soon. In his testimony, Bernanke also lectured congress on fiscal policy, which has been completely wrong-footed this year.
Buying Stampede
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Over the long weekend I decided to type the words buying stampede into Google to see what popped up. To my surprise there were more than 2,000,000 hits on the phrase buying stampede and many of them were attributed to me. While that was a pretty humbling experience, it also was surprising because I would have thought more investors would have used that phrase in connection with the many upside rally skeins that have occurred over the past dozen years.
Bernanke's JEC Testimony
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
On Wednesday, May 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify on The Economic Outlook. The next monetary policy meeting is four weeks away, but Bernanke is likely to provide a preview of what will be discussed at that time specifically, on the issue of when to begin reducing the rate of asset purchases. The short answer may be it depends.
Alpha, Beta!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
I had a somewhat lengthy conversation with Rich Bernstein last Friday. I have been on TV with Rich over the years, but have never really had a one-on-one talk with him. Recall that Richard Bernstein was the Chief U.S. Strategist at Merrill Lynch for years before becoming the eponymous captain of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). I was speaking with Rich because I have developed an interest in a few of the funds he manages for various entities. Rich began by stating he is extremely bullish, believing we are in one of the biggest bull markets ever.
The Budget Deficit
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The Monthly Treasury Statement showed a large budget surplus for April. Some of that may prove to be temporary. Income was pulled forward into 2012 ahead of expected tax increases in 2013 and that was reflected in higher tax payments in April. Some of it is payback from the bailouts of a few years ago (for example, earnings from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). However, much of the improvement reflects a rebound from a severe recession. Tax revenues are recovering and recession-related expenses are trending lower.
Who is Henry Singleton?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
The year was 1974 and Teledyne (TDY/$77.56/Outperform), on a split-adjusted basis, was trading at about $0.05 per share. By 1986 it was changing hands around $75 per share. Unfortunately, back in 1974 I didnt have enough money to buy more than 10 shares, having lived through the devastating bear market of 1973 1974 where the D-J Industrial Average (INDU/15118.49) lost 47% of its value.
That Was the Week That Was
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Informally the TV show, That Was The Week That Was, is referred to as TW3and was a satirical comedy program first aired in the early 1960s. The program was considered a lampooning of the establishment. At the time it was considered a radical departure from legitimate television, but it set the stage for many more such radical departures. I revisit TW3 this morning because I have had so many requests for a formal repartee of a number of last weeks Morning Tacks woven into a more formal strategy letter.
All's Well That Ends Well
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The economic data reports were decidedly mixed last week. However, the April Employment Report exceeded expectations, which provided a good excuse for share prices to move higher. Bonds were whipsawed, encouraged by the view that the Fed was less likely to taper its asset purchases, but then hit hard by the better-than-expected payroll figures.
1Q13 GDP Growth and Beyond
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The initial estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter was lower than expected. Details were mixed, and surprising relative to what was anticipated at the start of the quarter. Government remained a drag on overall GDP growth, which is a major difference between the current recovery and rebounds from previous recessions. The first quarter figures dont tell us much about the pace of growth in the current quarter and beyond, but most economist have lowered their GDP forecasts for 2Q13.
Zebras?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
We saw many outside zebras gorging themselves on stocks in late 2007 as the D-J Industrial Average (DJIA) made a new all-time high and then registered a Dow Theory sell signal in November 2007. Subsequently, those outside zebras ended up as lion lunch when the senior index shed an eye-popping 53% over the ensuing 17 months.
The End of “Expansionary Austerity?”
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
A few years ago, an economic paper by Harvard professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff helped fuel the push for austerity. It was met with some criticism from economists, but was widely embraced by the press and by politicians on both sides of the Atlantic. The study has now been demonstrated to have had serious flaws, but will those in power fold? Or will they double down on bad economic policy?
Surf's Up!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Last month I was reminded of Surfs Up! while rereading said report from my departed friend Stan Salvigsen of Comstock Partners fame. While that is the organization Stan, Michael Aronstein, and Charles Minter formed in the late 1980s, Stans investment career actually began in 1964 as an analyst with the Value Line Investment Survey. Subsequently, he was an equity strategist at a succession of firms, including Dreyfus, Oppenheimer, C. J. Lawrence, and Merrill Lynch.
Inflation and Interest Rates
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The Federal Reserve began its first asset purchase program in the fall of 2008, during the depth of the financial panic. Some observers feared that the Feds actions would fuel higher inflation. However, the Fed is now well along in its third asset purchase program and inflation (as measured by the PCE Price Index) has remained low. In fact, Fed officials expect that inflation will trend at or below the 2% target for the next couple of years. That hasnt stopped the inflation worrywarts from predicting that inflation is still just around the corner.
Fortune's Formula
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
I reflected on mathematics, probabilities, and odds over the weekend after again reading the book Fortunes Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, by William Poundstone. The book centers on Claude Shannon, who in the late 1940s had the idea computers should compute using the now familiar binary digits 0s and 1s such that 1 means on and 0 means off.
The Great Secret
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
When I was a young boy, I remember my father coming home looking very ashen from a visit with a dear friend dying in the hospital. His name was Dell Zink and he was one of my fathers closest friends. Mr. Z, as we kids affectionately called him, was a very religious man; a man who was regarded by his friends as intelligent and philosophical.
March Jobs Report: Disappointing, But Not Terrible
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The economic added 759,000 jobs in March before seasonal adjustment, that is. That translated into a disappointing 88,000 gain in the seasonally-adjusted number. Figures for January and February were revised higher. The slower March figure could reflect a lagged impact from the payroll tax hike or February may have simply borrowed some strength from March.
A Fresh Milestone
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Last Thursday the S&P 500 (SPX/1569.19) notched a new all-time causing Ms. Scaggs to pen the aforementioned story in Fridays Wall Street Journal. I was particularly interested in a sentence further down in the article that read, The rally in stocks comes as investors warm up to stocks for the first time in years. That prose sparked memories of an era gone by.
The Arithmetic on Consumer Spending
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The 3rd estimate of 4Q12 GDP growth showed a downward revision to consumer spending growth. Less momentum heading into 1Q13, right? Guess again. Revisions to the monthly data actually showed better growth heading into the new year. Moreover, figures for January and February suggest a much stronger rate of growth in spending (and hence GDP) than was anticipated just a short time ago.
Voyager
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
According to Wikipedia, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is a 1,590 pound space probe launched by NASA on September 5, 1977 to study our solar system and interstellar space. Operating for more than 35 years, the spacecraft receives commands and transmits data back to the Deep Space Network. At a distance of more than 11 billion miles it is the farthest human-made object from Earth and is traveling in a previously unknown region of space. Similarly, the D-J Industrial Average is traveling in a previously unknown region of space as it boldly goes where no man has been before.
Fed Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic or Just Hopeful?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The Federal Open Market Committees latest policy meeting generated few surprises. The FOMC maintained its forward guidance on the federal funds rate target, which is still not expected to start rising until 2015, and did not alter its asset purchases plans ($40 billion per month in agency mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion in longer-term Treasuries). However, in his press briefing, Bernanke indicated that the pace of asset purchases could be varied as progress is made toward the Feds goals or if the assessment of the benefits and potential costs of the program were to cha
Gamblers Fallacy
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
My luck has gotta change is a famous lament that has buried many a player on the crap tables. But as shown in the aforementioned coin toss quote, The outcomes in different tosses are statistically independent and the probability of any outcome is still 50%. While thats true in gambling, it is not so true in the stock market. The fact is, there are certain historic precedents in the stock market that can tilt the odds of success decidedly in your favor.
How Strong?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The recent economic reports have been mixed. The stock market seems to have embraced the strength and ignored the weakness. The bond market typically approaches the information in a more balanced way. How might the differences between the two markets be resolved?
The Ambergris Factor!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Investing is a lot like whaling. Investors are constantly searching for that whale of a stock with the "ambergris factor." And, that is what investors were doing last week at the Raymond James 34th Annual Institutional Investors Conference in Orlando, Florida. In attendance were nearly 800 professional investors that were listening to presentations from CEOs and CFOs of more than 300 companies. As stated, just like the portfolio managers were there looking for stocks with the right stuff, so was I.
The Magic of Compound Interest
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
When compound interest works in your favor, it is a blessing. When it works against you, it's a curse! That is a "Jeffreism" I learned the hard way back in the bear market of the early 1970s when I was working for a $100 per week in this business and consequently had my credit cards levered to the "max." The interest rate at the time was 18%.
A Permanent Investment
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
The Buying Power, and Selling Pressure, indicators continue to suggest no major top is in the works. Ditto the Advance/Decline line traded to a new high before the mid-week pullback, also confirming the upside. The major averages continue to reside above their respect 50-DMAs and 200-DMAs; and, those moving averages are rising, another bullish sign. Then there is Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/$152,009/Not Covered), which is somewhat of a proxy for the stock market, as it traded to a new all-time last Friday.
Sudden Discomfort
by Scott J. Brown of Raymond James,
Minutes of the January 29-30 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed a growing discomfort with the Feds Large-Scale Asset Purchase program (QE3). Thats not all that surprising. Even those who strongly favor the program arent exactly happy with it. However, thats a far cry from wanting to end the program anytime soon. We should learn more this week as Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers his semiannual monetary policy testimony (Tuesday and Wednesday).
Jesse Livermore
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
"There were times when my plans went wrong and my stocks did not run true to form, but did the opposite of what they should have done if they had kept regard for precedent." So said Jesse Livermore, as chronicled in the brilliant book Reminiscence of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefever; and, stock market historians will recall that Jesse Livermore is still considered one of the most colorful market speculators of all time.
On Competitive Devaluations
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Aggressive monetary policy moves in recent years have been accompanied by a growing fear of a currency war. In a currency war, or competitive devaluation, countries attempt to weaken their currencies to boost exports, but each devaluation leads to counter devaluations. That's not what's going on now. However, whether a country is purposely devaluing its currency or is merely pursuing accommodative monetary policy is irrelevant, the consequences are the same. The recent meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers highlights the lack of coherent policies to boost growth.
The Budget Outlook Why the Hysteria?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
President Obama will deliver his fifth State of the Union Address on Tuesday evening. These speeches tend not to be of much significance for the financial markets, although the topics discussed may be important for certain industries (healthcare, energy, defense). Obama is expected to repeat his request that the sequester, due March 1, be postponed to next year. Doing so would not result in less deficit reduction. Such a move would have to be "paid for" through an increase in tax revenues and cuts in other forms of spending. However, it would limit the economic damage that would follow.
The January Barometer
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
It's that time of year again when the media is abuzz with that old stock market saying, "so goes the first week of the new year, so goes the month and so goes the year." With the S&P 500 (SPX/1513.17) better by 2.17% over the first five trading sessions of this year, and up 6.10% for the month of January, it is worth revisiting the January Barometer. Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer states that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year.
The Job Market Data and the Fed
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 2.8 million in January before seasonal adjustment, that is. Adjusted, payrolls advanced 157,000, about as expected. However, annual benchmark revisions showed a more rapid pace of job growth over the last two years a pace at odds with the Household Survey data. How might the Fed view the range of job market data?
Moving the Hurdles
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The ink of my weekly piece was not even dry last Friday, when the House announced that it would vote on a three-month delay in the debt ceiling showdown. Congress now has until May 19 to raise the debt ceiling. So, the most dangerous hurdle has been moved down the track. Other hurdles remain in place.
For All the Sad Words of Tongue and Pen...
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
"For all the sad words of tongue and pen, the saddest are these: It might have been." ... John Whittier; an influential American Quaker poet. Certainly, American poet John Greenleaf Whittier's apothegm has stood the test of time, serving as a universal lament for what "might have been." I was reminded of this maxim last week as Wall Street heard increasing laments from investors on the Street of Dreams.
The Washington Hurdles
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
While President Obama is now beginning his second term, the new Congress isn't expected to "get down to business" until next month. There are three hurdles for Washington, which are likely to have significant implications for the financial markets.
It's What You Learn After You Know It All That Counts.
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
January is the time of year when strategists, economists, gurus, etc. all join in on the annual nonsense of predicting "What's going to happen in the markets for 2013?" For many, this ritual is an ego trip, yet as Benjamin Graham inferred forecasting where the markets will be a year from now is nothing more than rank speculation. Or as I have noted, "You might as well flip a lucky penny."
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