Goodbye and good riddance to 3Q11, which has been the worst performing quarter for the SPX since 4Q08. Welcome to 4Q11, and the month of October, which has been termed the Bear Killer since many downtrends have found their nadir in the Halloween month. Indeed, recall that after being bearish since the Dow Theory sell signal of November 21, 2007, we turned bullish in October 2008 when 93% of all the stocks traded on the NYSE made new annual lows. Hopefully, this month will prove as kind for stocks as 2008.

As expected, the FOMC opted for Operation Twist, and will sell short-term Treasuries out of its portfolio and buy longer-term Treasuries. However, the size of the Feds operation was larger than anticipated and more out-the-curve, sending yields on long-term Treasuries tumbling sharply. In addition, to further aid the housing market, the FOMC voted to recycle is maturing mortgage-backed securities and agency debt back into mortgage-backed securities. So whats not to like? By themselves, the Feds latest moves arent going to lead to strong GDP growth anytime soon, but they should help.

Its 11:01 p.m., do you know where your children are? is a phrase that haunted me reminding my parents that I was out past my curfew. Similarly, investors asked themselves last week, Its 1101, do you know where your stocks are? as on Wednesday the Dow dove through last Mondays intraday low of 1188.36 and headed below the August 9th selling climax low of 1101.54. For 7 weeks I have discussed the importance of holding above the 1100 level, if our analogue to the October 1978 and October 1979 bottoming sequence is going to hold. So far, the correlation between then and now is remarkable.

Fed policymakers meet this week at a critical juncture. Growth has slowed in the last few months no recession, but well below potential, leading to some softening in the labor market. Consumer price inflation has picked up in 2011 and August CPI figures were on the high side of expectations. In their public comments, Fed officials have been divided on the potential benefits and risks of additional policy accommodation. However, some action is expected on Wednesday. The only question is which tool the Fed will pull out of its kit.

Over the past 41 years I have observed a few comparisons that have had fairly good correlations to what was occurring at the time and have used them to help allay panic among investors at inappropriate times. Most recently, I have suggested the panic lows of August 4th and 8th showed such extreme panic-selling readings that participants had to go back to May 13, 1940, when the Germany Army broke through the Maginot Line and invaded France, to find similar panic levels. That observation was consistent with the analogue I have been using for two months.

Over the weekend Greece did not default, although for over a year I have expressed the view that Greece has to default; a stance I continue to embrace. This morning, however, rumors are swirling again about a Greek default along with hints that Germany is not going to prevent it. That leaves the pre-opening futures down over 20 points, which would represent a retest of the selling-climax lows. While I am hopeful this will be a successful retest, consistent with the October 1978/1979 bottoming sequence, if 1100 is decisively broken it would imply the rally from the March 2009 lows is over.

While Fed officials appear to be divided the hawks are a minority. More monetary stimulus is coming but its unclear whether this will include another round of asset purchases or a lengthening of maturities in the Feds asset holdings. Looking at Europe, its difficult to quantify the probability of a banking crisis, the exit of one or more countries from the monetary union, or a complete breakup. The political environment is difficult in a different sort of way than in the U.S. Fiscal and monetary policy efforts in the U.S. may not lead to a strong recovery anytime soon, but at least we try.

In last weeks verbal strategy comments I cautioned to not pay up for stocks since the NYSE McClellan Oscillator was about as short-term overbought as it ever gets. Additionally, I stated that if this is a replay of the October 1978/1979 bottoming sequence we will have opportunities over the coming weeks to buy select stocks at lower prices. Given the European news over the weekend, and yesterdays Euroland equity markets meltdown, it should come as no surprise that the S&P 500 preopening futures are sharply lower this morning.

In a week or so, President Obama will announce proposals to boost job growth and shore up the housing sector. These efforts, even if they could make it through Congress, would help somewhat, but wouldnt boost economic growth substantially. Bernankes Jackson Hole speech showed that the Fed chairman remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for the economy. Current difficulties are unlikely to affect the long-term growth potential, but he stressed that is if our country takes the necessary steps to secure that outcome.

Just like the surfer interviewed over the weekend who grabbed a board and leapt into the Irene-induced waves, investors need to grab a board and catch a wave if they want to achieve success. But to do that, first you need to get into the water! The time to stand on-shore was months ago, not after a ~20% decline in the S&P 500 (SPX/1176.80) from its intraday high on May 2 to its intraday low on August 9. While we have been pretty conservative in our stock recommendations over the past three weeks, we would become more aggressive if the SPX can break out above the recent rally-high of ~1208.

I have been pounded with questions about the Dow Theory sell signal I spoke of; and, that occurred three weeks ago. The ubiquitous question has been Hey Jeff, how can you tell people to buy in light of the signal? My response has been that such a huge amount of energy had been used up in rendering the Dow Theory sell signal that the market, at least on a short-term trading basis, is likely a buy. Reinforcing that view are numerous oversold readings of epic proportions.

The Kansas City Feds annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is attended by central bankers from around the world. For U.S. investors, the focus will be on Bernankes speech on Friday 8/26. Many market participants are hoping for a repeat of last year, when the Fed Chairman signaled the possibility of a second round of asset purchases QE2. However, while the August 9 Federal Open Market Committee indicated that its members were discussing a range of policy tools to promote growth, the FOMC is unlikely to pull the trigger on another round of asset purchases anytime soon.

While people who live in glass houses should not throw rocks, I have to observe how the media has trotted out super-bear Robert Prechter at every major stock market low for the past decade. They featured him again last week. Combine such anecdotal gleanings with the aforementioned market valuation metrics and it suggests a downside inflection point may have been reached. And while the bottoming process should take weeks, many individual stocks have likely already bottomed.

When asked how he made his money, Mr. Rogers answered, I sell euphoria and buy panic. Currently, gold and Treasuries are gapping on the upside; and, stocks are gapping on the downside. The implication, though I believe gold is in a secular bull market, suggests positions should be sold in metals and the freed-up cash should be used to buy sound stocks with decent dividend yields. The weeks ahead will determine if this is the correct strategy. All said, IMO it is too late to panic. The time raise cash, was months ago. Now it is time to selectively redeploy that cash into select equities.

Fiscal policy in the U.S. and abroad is going the wrong way, weakening the prospects for global growth. What about monetary policy? In the U.S., Fed policymakers meet this week. As Chairman Bernanke testified in mid-July, even with the federal funds rate close to zero, we have a number of ways in which we could act to ease financial conditions further. The Fed could provide more explicit guidance on how long short-term interest rate would remain low and how long the balance sheet would be maintained at its current elevated level.

We have many great campaigners inside the D.C. Beltway, but far too few have the ability to govern given that their main concern is to get reelected. Maybe Warren Buffet had the right idea when he said, I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than three percent of GDP all sitting members of congress are ineligible for reelection. As for the Nations AAA rating status, I think we are in for a downgrade no matter what happens inside the Beltway as the pendulum always swings too far in each direction.

The advance estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in somewhat lower than expected. Some of the second quarter's softness was transitory, but is there a danger of hitting stall speed? Will the debt ceiling crisis contribute to weaker growth? Real GDP growth rose at a 1.3% annual rate in the advance estimate for 2Q11. It's important to remember that these are preliminary figures. However, we don't expect the story to change very much. Annual benchmark revisions delivered downward adjustments to growth to 4Q10 and 1Q11 GDP. The revised 1Q11 GDP figure looked like a misprint. No such luck.

Last week saw the U.S. Dollar Index decline by ~2.6% and gold tag a new all-time high of $1610.70. The real star of the week, however, was Sugars Surge of 7.87%. I cant imagine the President would want to go down in history as the Captain whose watch saw America lose its AAA status. Accordingly, I would continue to cautiously favor the upside, on a risk-adjusted basis, for if the debt ceiling is not raised we see another downside "hit." And this morning it looks like another hit, at least on a short-term basis, as our elected leaders continue to talk to the wind.

Last Monday proved to be a 90% Downside Day whereby 90% of the total volume traded came on the downside, while 90% of total points were likewise negative. Typically, 90% Downside Days are followed by rally attempts lasting five to seven sessions. Obviously, that wasnt the case last week and it concerns me. Also concerning is the fact the often mentioned 1320 level was violated and despite the three separate rally attempts that were staged to recapture 1320, it was all of no avail. This brings us to this week, where 2Q11 earnings reports will be Wall Streets focus.

Some think that by not raising the debt ceiling the government will be prevented from spending more than it takes in. Thats a failure to understand the budget process. The money has been allocated. If the debt ceiling is not raised, interest payments would likely be made, but Medicare payments, Social Security payments, and veterans benefits may be delayed. Government workers may be sent home, but eventually paid (whether they work or not). Government contractors may not be paid on time. If this sounds like madness, well, as Forest Gumps momma said, stupid is as stupid does.

The June Employment Report, while disappointing, doesnt really tell us much about what to expect in the second half of the year. Its possible that seasonal job gains were shifted a bit forward this year-or perhaps higher gas prices are extracting a greater-than-expected toll in spending-or perhaps the job numbers will be revised. The June jobs data fit into the overall pattern of a slow patch. Thats also likely to be apparent in the advance GDP report released later this month. However the economy appears to have enough positive momentum to continue to grow in the second half of the year

Indeed, I visited 10 European cities over the last two weeks, and spoke with roughly 200 PMs, most of which were bearish and/or very bearish on U.S. equities. Their fears centered on our countrys debt situation, the dollar, and the debt ceiling. It seems there is a genuine belief in Europe that the U.S. debt ceiling wont be increased, leading to a default with an attendant rating downgrade. The Europeans dont understand the political gamesmanship currently being played that will be resolved with a debt ceiling increase at the last minute.

The recent data have been mixed, consistent with a slower rate of economic growth in the near term. The economy faced a number of headwinds in the first half of the year. Some of those headwinds are likely to be temporary. Others will linger. Growth should pick up in the second half of the year, but the pace seems unlikely to be especially strong. The markets showed little reaction to the May figures on personal income and spending. Real consumer spending appears to be on track for an annual rate of growth of 1% or less in 2Q11.

For the past few weeks I have been suggesting the equity markets were in the process of bottoming. While my ideal pattern was for a downside selling-climax into the 1230 1250 zone, it just doesnt look like that is going to happen since the SPX tested, and held, its 200-DMA three times over the last few weeks. Yesterday our nation celebrated its 235th birthday. I commemorated the day by re-reading the lyrics from the Star-Spangled Banner in honor of our forefathers courage. While most citizens know the first stanza of said anthem, few know the other three. Nor do they know it's history.

The Federal Open Market Committee policy statement and Chairman Bernankes post-meeting press conference held few surprises. Monetary policy is still accommodativeand still on hold. Theres also apparently little will at the Fed to do more to help the recovery along. Fortunately for the Fed and the consumer, we can catch a break if oil prices continue to decline. The Fed lowered its GDP forecast for this year to a range of 2.7%-2.9%. In January, the Fed was expecting 3.4% to 3.9%. Growth has slowed due to temporary factors, still the Fed lowered it's outlook.

It is depressing that the equity market couldnt build on its 90% Upside Day of June 21. It is also depressing that the NASDAQ broke below its 200-DMA (COMP/2652.89), since we like leadership from the NASDAQ. Importantly, the recent decline is all about the fact that Selling Pressure has increased modestly, rather than a significant decline in Buying Power. Nevertheless, we are in defensive mode until the SPX can close above the 1292 1296 level, followed by a close bettering the 1316 1320 zone. To get really bullish would require a close above 1346. Until then, we remain circumspect ...

In last weeks comments I noted the SPX had been down for six consecutive weeks for only the 17th time since 1928. As Bespoke Investment Group wrote early last week, If there is any consolation for the bulls, it is that there have only been three weekly losing streaks of seven or more (weeks) for the index. (After six consecutive weeks down) in week seven, the SPX has risen an average of 1.03%. While last weeks gain of 0.52% fell short of that average, the SPX did manage to avoid its seventh weekly wilt. Not so for the NASDAQ, which recorded its seventh down week with a loss of 1.03%

Senior Fed officials meet next week amid what is widely seen as a slow patch in economic growth. A key question for investors, as well as for monetary policymakers, is whether this slowing will be temporary. Most likely, growth should pick up in the second half of the year. However, there are downside risks in the near term. Moreover, monetary policy appears to be handcuffed and fiscal policy is set to go in the wrong direction. The wide range of data have been consistent with a near-term slowing in economic activity.

While equity markets can certainly do anything, if the SPX declines to the lows registered in March of 2009, which is what Walter Zimmerman thinks, and if the current earnings estimates are anywhere near the mark, it would leave the S&P 500 trading at less than 6x earnings with a dividend yield (excluding any dividend increases) approaching 5%. I just dont believe this is in the cards, given my assumption the economy is NOT going to double dip. Amid such market machination I think investors should keep their heads screwed-on straight and begin compiling their buying lists.

Its well known that recessions that are caused by financial crises are much more severe, are longer lasting, and are followed by gradual recoveries. Another lesson from history is that during these recoveries, policies are often tightened too soon. In 1937, efforts to balance the budget led to a recession within the Great Depression. Its said that those who dont remember the past are doomed to repeat it. Following the financial crisis, consumers and nonfinancial businesses deleveraged. However, that paydown in debt pales in comparison to the deleveraging seen in the financial sector.

Last Wednesday was a 90% Downside Day, meaning 90% of the total points lost, and 90% of the total volume came on the downside. Typically, such Downside Days are followed by upside rebounds. Clearly, that did not happen, bringing into view the SPXs April intraday reaction low of 1294.70. Violating that would imply 1250 and then 1230. While I dont think that is what will happen, the stock market doesnt care much about what I think. Hence, the SPX had better hold above the April reaction lows or we will be forced to raise even more cash.

The recent economic data have been disappointing, but hardly a disaster. The broad range of indicators suggest a slowing in the pace of growth not a contraction. One month does not a trend make, but the data have generated some anxieties about whether the current slow patch could be a lot longer lasting or turn into something more severe. We started this year with a good deal of positive momentum. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose at a 4.0% annual rate in 4Q10. The economy still faced a number of headwinds. However, the positive momentum was expected to offset these headwinds.

For decades, GDP growth has averaged a little over 3% per year, and most of the time, the level of GDP has been within 3% of this long-term trend. Theres some debate about whether this trend will continue. If it does, then we may see much stronger growth in the next several years (as we catch up). If not, then we have something to worry about. Its unclear exactly why 3% should be the norm. GDP is simply the amount of labor input times the productivity of labor. Growth in labor input and growth in productivity vary over time. Theres no special reason that they should sum to 3%.

I am writing this Monday night without the benefit of seeing Tuesday mornings pre-opening futures because I will be on a plane. Still, I am optimistic given last weeks backdrop. While it is clear economic statistics have softened, we believe this is largely attributable to Japan (Fukushima), the European debt debacle, the Middle East, and our continuing weird weather. That optimism is reinforced by another all-time high in corporate profits (before tax and adjusted for inventory valuation adjustment and capital allowance adjustment), which is good for capex and employment.

Last week, the federal government breached the current debt ceiling, $14.284 trillion. The Treasury had begun taking evasive action the week before, but warned that it couldnt do so beyond early August and Congress would have to raise the debt ceiling before then. Will the government default? The strong betting is that it wont. The bond market doesnt seem to be worried. However, the increased rhetoric could have a bigger impact on the equity and currency markets. Why does the government have a debt ceiling? For the most part, its an historical artifact.

To begin, commodities are likely on summer vacation before they resume their secular bull market, however, I continue to like a number of special situations. Williams Company (WMB/$30.76/Outperform) reported a solid 1Q11 quarter. Our bullish thesis on Williams is supported by (1) we believe the companys E&P assets will garner a higher valuation in the market place as a stand-alone entity when the company splits itself into two parts; (2) we believe the market is undervaluing Williams ownership of the Williams Partner GP, and (3) we expect strong growth from the Canadian midstream assets.

Despite rampant hysterics about "runaway inflation" in recent months, core inflation has remained at a moderate level, inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and there is little inflation pressure coming through the labor market. Is it time to declare victory? Not just yet, but the inflation outlook still does not appear to be particularly troublesome.

In past missives I have opined that China is slowly revaluing its currency in an attempt to create more domestic demand, dampen its inflation rate, and placate U.S. leaders. To be sure, the Chinese realize in the long-run the manufacturing/export driven economic model will eventually morph to the lower cost of labor, which is quickly becoming the Vietnams of the world. Accordingly, they are following what Brazil did with its currency (the Real) a few years ago. To wit, Brazil raised interest rates and increased the value of its currency.

While the intermediate/long-term internal stock market energy remains fully charged for a move higher, the markets short-term energy still needs some time to rebuild. This probably means another week, or two, of consolidation and/or attempts to sell stocks down before we begin another leg to the upside. Even so, I dont think any selling will gain much downside traction, implying the zone between the S&P 500s (SPX/1340.20) 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1320 and the 1340 level should provide support for stocks.

The April Employment Report was better than expected, reflecting a strong trend in private-sector job growth. However, the economy continues to face a number of headwinds, which should restrain the pace of growth in the near term. The establishment survey data typically show large unadjusted increases in payrolls each spring. Prior to seasonal adjustment, the private sector added 1,159,000 jobs last month, the largest April gain since 2005. Last year, the rate of job destruction trended to very low levels. This year, new hiring finally appears to be picking up.

Since last June my unencumbered observation has been, You can get cautious from time to time, but dont get bearish. That mantra has served us well, especial since last September, because beginning on September 1, 2010 the senior index has not experienced anything more than a one- to three-session pause/pullback making today the 174th session in its upside skein. Such a stampede is unprecedented in my notes of over 40 years. Still, It looks like its going up to me.

There were no fireworks at Bernankes first post-FOMC press briefing. All five Fed governors and 12 district bank presidents contributed revised forecasts of growth, unemployment, and inflation last week. The central tendency forecasts exclude the three highest and three lowest projections. Fed officials lowered their outlook for GDP growth this year, reflecting a slower than anticipated rate of growth in the first quarter. Unemployment is expected to decline gradually. Inflation will be higher this year, but the Fed continues to expect that commodity price pressures will be transitory.

Oil that is, black gold, Texas Tea; yet, rude crude still feels a bit stretched in the short-term given that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is ~30% above its 200-day moving average (DMA). Indeed, over the past few weeks oil has become almost as extended above its 200-DMA as it was in July 2008, and we all know how that ended. Not that I am predicting a similar collapse in the price of Texas Tea, but rather that a consolidation/pullback period is likely, which could provide the backdrop for another leg up in stocks (even the energy stocks).

I love New York City! Still, as I walked from the airplane into the terminal last Monday, I got the feeling I was traveling back in time, La Guardia is in need of a refresh. All in all, I felt like I was in a third-world country, not the greatest city in the world. Nonetheless, my trip started with a couple of hedge funds. At noon a segment on Breakout." From there, it was off to see some PMs before the next media hit at Fox Business with, Brian Sullivan. While I am kindred spirits with these media anchors, by far the highlight of last Monday was dinner with President Bill Clinton.

There may be an increase in the carry trade in both dollars and yen, but I dont think this is the main factor behind the rise in commodity prices and demand for risk assets. Bank policies matter a lot for currencies. However, the U.S. is not going to raise rates anytime soon, implying a somewhat softer dollar. Youre hearing inflation concerns among some of the district bank presidents, but that is a minority view. The Fed sees higher oil prices as bad for growth, not a catalyst for a higher trend in underlying inflation; but officials will be watching the trend in core inflation, and wages.

Later this month, Bernanke will hold his first post-FOMC press conference. The press conference is meant to present the Federal Open Market Committee's current economic projections and to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions. The real goal is to reclaim the narrative. The Fed was caught off guard by the criticism and second guessing it received in 2010. These press conferences should help clear things up regarding monetary policy not that well receive clear signals of future Fed policy moves rather, well get information on how the Fed will decide what to do.

Since the 1980s I have read articles by Shad in Forbes, Fortune, Barrons, etc. and always found them insightful. Moreover, I have often used his sagacious comments in these missives to emphasize those gleanings in an attempt to help investors profit from them. This morning is no exception. Shad outlined why he is a steadfast bull on the American stock market. Said bullishness does not stem from his nature, for a couple of decades ago he enjoyed great success as a short seller. Nope, Shads bullishness is based on the belief that innovation is thriving in America.

Happy days are here again. The job market is now adding jobs at a pace stronger than population growth however, not by much. Its been clear for some time that large-scale job losses are far behind us. The problem in the labor market has been weakness in hiring. Small and medium-size firms have begun to add jobs in recent months. Yet, with so many jobs lost in the downturn, there is a huge amount of ground to make up. The private sector shed a net 8.8 million jobs during the Great Recession (starting in December 2007 and bottoming in February 2010).

Whether the March 16 ?low? gets retested is now doubtful. Still, a partial pullback to 1275 on the S&P 500 cannot be ruled out because the recent rally has occurred due to more of a decline in Selling Pressure rather than enthusiastic buying. The decline from February 18 into the March 16 ?low? was accompanied by two 90% Downside Days. As well, there were two nearly 90% Downside Days during the decline. Typically it takes at least one Upside Day to conclude that a correction is over and so far we have not seen that. Still, I think a lot of the price risk has been removed from select stocks.

Over the last year, the level of job destruction has trended very low. The problem has been a lack of job creation. Normally we look to small, newer firms to account for the bulk of new hiring in an expansion. However, small firms have been constrained by a variety of forces, the most significant being tight credit. That may be starting to change. The job market has a strong seasonal component. The next couple of months will be key to the outlook for jobs and the overall economy.