As we look at today’s economy and financial markets, we are at a crossroads: Will it be a long straight highway to a soft landing, or will it be a bumpy road to recession?
September is typically the weakest month of the year for stocks, but thanks to the much-anticipated federal funds rate cut, the S&P 500 turned in its first positive performance in a September since 2019
For many investors, the fixed income portion of their portfolio is intended to be the ballast of the portfolio.
The economy reached an inflection point, with labor market conditions squarely in focus.
After the first rate cut in two years went according to market expectations as the Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 50 bps, markets have continued to run with the Fed’s ball and seem to have a ‘sugar rush.'
Explore fixed-income tools that generate income and infrastructure.
Fixed income strategy and opportunities have remained relatively unchanged over the past few months. However, the much-talked-about monetary policy change has commenced.
The seasons are changing. This weekend marks the autumn equinox—a time of year when the days get shorter, the weather gets cooler, and the leaves start to turn (at least for our friends in the north). While our calendars will show that fall has officially arrived, it may not feel like it as much of the nation will be enjoying unseasonably warm weather.
After more than six months of indicating that it lacked conviction regarding the path of inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) seems to have gotten a conviction boost so large that it pushed it to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
More than two years after first taking steps to contain swelling inflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has taken a step back, suggesting monetary policy decision-makers have confidence that inflation will continue to move closer to the Fed’s target, allowing them to turn some attention to economic growth.
The half-percentage point reduction at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting represents the largest non-COVID era cut by the Fed since 2008.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The Federal Reserve (Fed), and markets, overreacted to the slightly higher inflation seen during the first quarter of the year. After that scare, the Fed went from expecting three cuts in the federal funds rate in 2024 to just one cut during its June dot plot release.
The time has come! After the most aggressive tightening cycle in modern history, the Fed is ready to turn the page and begin dialing back its policy restraint after the second longest ‘on hold’ period (14 months) in history. Barring any surprises, the Fed should lower interest rates at its meeting next week—the first rate cut in over four years—in the hopes of preserving a soft landing for the economy.
Fed officials must recalibrate their policy stance to ensure the economy stays on solid footing to achieve that elusive soft landing they have been aiming for after their quest to quash inflation.
Investors may find themselves prognosticating about future rates relative to current rates in an attempt to optimize their portfolio.
August’s employment report, which was weaker than markets were expecting but stronger than our call, cements our view that the easing cycle will begin during the next FOMC meeting, September 17-18.
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
Happy National Cheap Flight Day! Yes, you heard that right—there is a national celebration day to mark the start of a lull in travel demand. Who knew this would be a day to celebrate? Regardless, it’s good news for consumers as airfares should continue their recent downward trend!
As a businessman and ex-business owner, the idea of firms ‘hoarding’ workers never made sense. As an economist, the idea of firms hoarding workers never made sense either.
As recently as the beginning of this year the market pundits were predicting up to six Federal Reserve rate cuts to the short-term Federal Funds Rate. Shockingly, the pundits’ expectations have not come to fruition. Predictions based on the sentiment of the day fill the twenty-four-hour news cycle on multiple outlets.
This week marks the ‘unofficial’ end to 2Q24 earnings season – and aside from a few wobbles, it has been reasonably good. S&P 500 earnings growth came in at a solid 11.2% YoY pace – its best quarterly performance since 4Q21.
June’s rate of inflation showed, for the first time in several years, an important slowdown in shelter costs, something that economists, us included, have been expecting for a very long time but had not materialized.
Your portfolio can be the key to managing cash and maintaining flexibility.
The flexibility offered through individual bonds translates well for tailoring individual financial goals and needs.
During volatile times, it is important to maintain perspective, stay focused on your long-term objectives, and avoid knee-jerk reactions based on the latest twists and turns in the market.
When the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mortgage rates fell below 3% in 2021 and many households refinanced or obtained new loans.
Hastily, investors have turned their worry about inflation into worry about a recession. The catalyst was Friday’s unexpectedly disappointing unemployment number.
Take the market narrative with a grain of salt and look at the fundamentals in determining your outlook for the economy and financial markets. We ultimately believe this soft patch of data will prove to a be a ‘growth scare,’ not a ‘recession reality.’
The relative weakness in July’s nonfarm payroll employment number and the increase in the rate of unemployment from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in July, triggering the Sahm Rule is a reminder of the difficult tasks ahead for the Federal Reserve.
While election news dominated July's headlines, small-cap stocks had their best monthly performance relative to large-cap stocks since December 2000.
The Federal Reserve noted that inflation is moving closer to its 2% target after electing to hold rates steady at its July FOMC meeting.
We are approaching a turning point in policy decisions as the FOMC attempts to walk the fine line of hitting their inflation targets while maintaining a healthy labor market.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) doesn’t like to spook markets, that is the reason why it has crafted its communication on monetary policy to give indications way in advance and nothing has been pointing to a change of heart that could lead to a surprise move next week.
Following the historic decision by President Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam provides insight into his team's economic and market outlook.
There are many advantages and risks associated with any investment. Whether you are buying a stock, a house, a business, or a bond, each investment has unique characteristics that allow an investor to gain from particular investment features with varying risks.
As we start the second half of 2024 and we approach next week’s release of the preliminary report on real GDP for 2Q, we continue to expect 2H economic growth and inflation to downshift versus what we saw during 1H of this year.
Artificial intelligence is set to become a game changer for the electric power industry, notes Pavel Molchanov, Managing Director, Energy Analyst, Equity Research.
The dilemma that all Fed committees and chairpersons face when the economic cycle nears a turn but then repeats itself can be summed up with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s recent references: “Easing too soon, too much could harm inflation progress.” “Easing too little, too late could unduly weaken the economy.”
This week marks the official start to 2Q24 earnings season, with the big banks among the first to report. While much of the last six weeks has been dominated by the softening macro backdrop, the S&P 500 looked past the weakening data – notching 37 record closes already this year.
We want to repeat what we have said in the past: “One data point doesn’t a trend make.” However, the June data, after weaker than expected readings for April and May, confirm our suspicion that inflation numbers during the first quarter of the year were a fluke.
After a fruitful career and plenty of practice paying taxes, you may feel prepared for the tax man in retirement. But a review of your post-retirement taxable income may yield some surprising insights.
It’s an election year, which means you can expect to hear presidential candidates being asked about their plan for preventing Social Security from going bankrupt.
The global population has surpassed 8 billion and according to the United Nations, it is projected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050.¹ However, the rate of population growth is slowing and is expected to continue to decline. Seems counterintuitive, no?
It’s inevitable. A recession is coming. Whether it gets here next month, next quarter, next year, or next decade will be continuously debated until it arrives. Yet, one thing that everyone will agree on is that we will have another recession eventually.
Having hit 31 record highs since January and up more than 15% year to date, the S&P 500 is off to its best start to the year since 2019 and the best start to an election year ever, driven by mega-cap tech stocks and artificial intelligence (AI) tailwinds.
We’re borrowing from the upcoming Paris Summer Olympics for our quarterly theme – with a twist. Instead of using the most popular events (like gymnastics, swimming, and track & field) to express our views, we’ll go beyond the spotlight.
Key Takeaways
