Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
“We have production bottlenecks and supply shortages in every economic recovery,” says Raymond James Chief Economist Scott Brown, but those issues – and inflation – are expected to ease with time.
From school bells to the bells of New York Stock Exchange—the ringing of bells often signifies the beginning and/or conclusion of an event.
Optimism around GDP growth, employment and earnings has, for now, outweighed worries related to COVID-19 variants.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam examines the current investing environment through the lens of classic games.
The CPI rose more than expected in April, adding to inflation worries.
The markets continue their upward trend, supported by accommodative fiscal policy from the Federal Reserve, strong gross domestic product (GDP) numbers and solid earnings reports.
Today marks 100 days since President Biden was sworn into office, a time often referred to as the ‘honeymoon period’ for a new president’s tenure.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.
On Monday, the Treasury Department is expected to report a March budget deficit of about $658 billion, bringing the 12-month total to nearly $4.1 trillion, about 19% of GDP. Proponents argue that the added spending, with more to come, will help to ensure the recovery.
As a backdrop, we’ll bring a bit of scientific language to our analysis this quarter as we celebrate the amazing feats of our scientific brothers and sisters.
As the pandemic recedes and the economy reopens, we can expect strong job growth in the months ahead.
Economic data rarely follow a smooth path. Weather and external events have effects.
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged and did not alter its monthly pace of asset purchases.
What sustained low interest rates could mean for the economy and your wallet.
In an online discussion, Fed Chair Powell repeated that the central bank is a long way from achieving its inflation and employment goals (implying no change in short-term rates or the money pace of asset purchases anytime soon).
Long-term interest rates have continued to rise. While part of the increase has been fed by inflation fears, those concerns are overdone.
Though rising yields may be indicative of an economic recovery, market volatility and inflationary fear could produce future hurdles.
Despite the recent weakness in equities, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam expects positive stock growth over the next 12 months.
The details of the January Producer Price Index showed a further surge in prices of raw materials. Breakeven inflation rates (the yield spread between inflation-adjusted Treasuries and fixed-rate Treasuries) have continued to move higher.
For a variety of reasons, many investors are worried about higher inflation. While we may see reflation (a pickup in prices that were restrained due to the pandemic), a significant increase in underlying inflation appears unlikely.
The U.S. economy lost 2.77 million jobs in the initial estimate for January, which is on par with what we saw a year ago (-2.79 million). Seasonally adjusted, this was recorded as a 49,000 gain (with private-sector payrolls up just 6,000).
With the previous week’s short-squeeze headlines behind us, investors remained optimistic about a fiscal support package, which passed the Senate by a vote of 51-50, with Vice President Harris breaking the tie.
February begins with a stack of important economic scorecards. Among them are the last of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports, last week’s assessment of the 2020 gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment figures, consumer spending, as well as all the other regular reports that give us a snapshot of our recent economic history.
Real GDP rose at a 4.0% annual rate in the advance estimate for 4Q20, a much more moderate pace of recovery than was seen in the third quarter. Details were mixed, but consumer spending showed a significant loss of momentum and monthly figures reflected weakness in November and December.
As expected, the new administration has hit the ground running. In his first two days in office, President Biden issued executive orders which rescinded a number of previous directives or were aimed at ending the pandemic and easing the pandemic’s economic impact.
Judging by recent phone calls and email queries, inflation is a serious concern among investors this year.
For stock market participants, weak economic data has often been taken as a positive, since that implies more fiscal stimulus. However, investors have grown more concerned about possible stumbling blocks. Democratic majorities in the House and Senate are very narrow, some lawmakers are worried about running up the debt, and the window for bipartisan agreement may be short.
What can investors expect this year? Positive (but unsteady) economic growth, a powerful boost in earnings and continued success for information technology stocks, says Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
The December Employment Report reflected an impact from the pandemic surge and further job losses in state and local government, but wasn’t bad otherwise.
Raymond James Chief Economist Dr. Scott Brown reflects on the trials and tribulations of 2020 and discusses his outlook for the new year.
The holiday shopping season is critical for most retailers. For some, the season is make or break for the whole year. The November retail sales report was weaker than expected, although amplified by the seasonal adjustment. No surprise, consumers are increasingly shopping online.