The current Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) tightening cycle is approaching an end. This has been one of the most forceful as well as the fastest tightening cycle in history. However, because the federal funds rate was well below the neutral federal funds rate, the time it has been above that neutral level has not been that long.
Over the last week, the market saw volatility pick up after approaching the upper end of what we believe is the near-term trading range.
Short-term Treasury yields skyrocketed throughout 2022 reaching levels not seen in almost 15 years. In early October, the yield of the 6-month T-bill topped 4% for the first time since 2007 and by the end of the month had topped 4.5%.
Over the next few weeks, the exciting professional hockey playoffs will determine this year’s Stanley Cup winner! The NHL’s fast-paced playoff games will be sure to keep fans on edge as momentum constantly changes as players skate to a puck that travels up to 100 mph.
Getting lost in the moment is easy to do. When planning and executing your fixed income portfolio, looking long term is more likely to get you to your goal. Fixed income portfolio allocations are often meant to first protect principal and second, to optimize income and cash flow per your specific circumstances.
Start me up! This iconic Rolling Stones song keeps racing through our minds as we glance across the investing landscape. Why? Because it feels like the drivers of this turbulent market – Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, inflation, recession worries, geopolitical fears – will never stop.
Markets have been very positive this week on better-than-expected inflation numbers. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) printed a better than expected 0.1% in March with the year-over-year rate declining to 5.0% compared to a 6.0% year-over-year rate reported in February of this year.
The stakes are high, and it appears likely that our deeply divided government is headed for another debt-ceiling showdown. Divided governments have typically been good for the markets; however, they often spell trouble when it comes to negotiating fiscal matters.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
CIO Larry Adam shares why his team's market and economic views are tracking more optimistic in light of current volatility.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
In many ways, the process of filling out a bracket is like investing. It requires balancing risk and reward, while maintaining discipline.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
When markets react, consider a broader historical perspective before changing your financial course.
Regulators' prompt response and the creation of a new lending facility should limit broader market fallout from recent bank failures, notes Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Recently, many market commentators have been preaching the message that fixed income investors should stick to a low duration strategy.
Markets this month were unable to build upon January's momentum following speculation that the central bank will continue with interest rate hikes.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Changes for investors include RMD age increases, higher catch-up contribution limits and a new 529 transferal option.
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills outlines key components of the new legislation.
The latest adjustment snaps a four-month run of 75 bps interest rate increases by the Fed.
Many have been asking this question since earlier this year, a question that has no easy answer. As economists – us included – continue to forecast the most ‘telegraphed’ recession in history, it is important to point to those things that make this economic cycle very different from past economic cycles.
While economists have been lowering their employment forecast month over month over month, the U.S. labor market has continued to disappoint those forecasts and has remained relatively strong as well as relatively stable, with jobs growing at an average of 392,000 per month during 2022.
