Stocks are far from cheap. Based on Buffett’s preferred valuation model and historical data, return expectations for the next ten years are as likely to be negative as they were for the ten years following the late ’90s.
Asset bubbles have been prevalent throughout history.
Recently, the Biden Administration started taking victory laps on deficit reduction.
At the Jackson Hole Summit, Jerome Powell made it clear the Federal Reserve remains focused on combatting inflation despite recession signals rising in tandem.
Last year, I wrote an article discussing that 2022 earnings estimates were too optimistic given the impending reversal of the economic “Sugar Rush” of massive liquidity injections.
Small business sales are the lifeblood of the economy.
The “Rule Of 20” says the “bear market” may just be resting despite much commentary to the contrary.
Buy stocks in a bear market.
The bear market is over.
Jerome Powell isn’t Paul Volker, and this isn’t 1982.
Economic slowdown but no recession!
Pulling forward growth over the last decade remains the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for keeping financial markets stable while economic growth rates and inflation remained weak.
Jim Cramer recently stated it will be time to buy stocks when the Fed pivots.
Every investor must learn the one investing lesson in surviving the long game: how math works.
As expected, Wall Street wins again.
ESG underperformance will be the strategy’s eventual undoing.
MMT Policy (Modern Monetary Theory), the grand experiment, was tried following the pandemic-driven shutdown of the economy.
Basic economics says that companies can only set prices at a level where the current supply will meet demand. Moreover, looking at prices in a vacuum is also very misleading because it doesn’t account for changes in the firm’s input or operating costs.
The “Bullwhip Effect” has gotten the media’s attention as of late. However, the causes, effects, and consequences to the market and monetary policy are not well discussed.
The “Fear Of Missing Out,” or “F.O.M.O.” is a centuries-old behavioral trait that began to get studied in 1996 by marketing strategist Dr. Dan Herman.
An earnings recession is coming as the Fed hikes rates which accelerates an economic recession.
“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and 2021.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
Investors are terrified.
Social Security has a problem.
When will the bear market end?
Will the Fed pause its rate hikes as markets correct?
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets?
High inflation has captured the headlines as of late particularly as CPI recently hit the highest levels since 1981.
The disinflationary impact of Fed policy on equities is coming.
Investing during a recession can be a very difficult, and often dangerous, prospect.
Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish.
“Don’t be bearish.” That was the message delivered by a Wall Street Journal article in August 2021.
A bull market in bonds is set to return with a vengeance as the Fed once again makes a policy mistake.
Buying stocks is easy; the hard part is knowing when to sell.
Recession warnings are clearly on the rise. Much of the initial media fervor focuses on the inversion of the yield curve.
Is there a bear market lurking in the shadows?
Is it still a “bear market rally?”
The “wisdom of the crowd” isn’t always wise to follow. A recent article by Scott Nations via MarketWatch made an excellent point.
Did Goldman Sachs destroy a persistent myth about investing in stocks? Sam Ro recently suggested such was the case for the “sacred CAPE ratio.”
“Anatomy of a Bear Market” by Russell Napier is a “must-read” manuscript. Given current market dynamics, a review seems timely.
Yield curve inversion conversations are dominating the media to the point it almost sounds like the start of a bad joke.
The surge in bond yields suggests that we are nearing the ideal entry point to buy longer-duration bonds for capital appreciation and portfolio protection.
Bailouts are the root cause of the dysfunction of capitalism and the demise of free markets.
“Cash Is Trash” is a common theme as of late as inflation rages from the massive monetary interventions of 2020 and 2021.
Recession risk is rising rapidly. In fact, it is possible that we may already be in one.
The Fed’s QE is officially over.