The stock market sell-off appears to be signaling a recession. However, we believe the bond market disagrees.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.
The U.S. economy remains structurally productive. American Economic Exceptionalism is powered by innovation and labor flexibility.
Long maturity treasuries can provide downside protection to offset equity risk, in our view.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
Riverfront's stock selection team performs analysis on individual equities that provides useful insights into how we position our portfolios.
The Fed could be ‘slower to lower,' while the Trend continues to rise, with an overly optimistic Crowd due to seasonality and post-election trends.
In Europe, the ECB stimulates a sluggish economy while in the UK, the problem is inflation. In contrast, the US responds to stronger growth.
The period from 1956-1966 offers lessons we can apply to today's bull market, regarding technological progress, market fundamentals and more.
We are excited to release our October 2024 Chart Pack, our visual quarterly designed to walk investors through what’s happening in markets.
Quarterly recap: Fed rate cut and Chinese stimulus take the spotlight.
Flashing green light – crowd will determine path forward.
The bond market is overextrapolating recession risk.
What history can tell us about seasonal returns.
In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.
With US payroll and unemployment data surprising to the downside two Fridays ago, Treasury markets quickly repriced the probability of impending recession, helping set off a volatility spike in stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg, economists’ consensus probability of a US recession in the next twelve months is now approximately 30%.
Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.
We expect inflation and rates to remain higher than the last decade. We favor tech within growth and cyclicals within value.
Since World War II, the US Dollar (USD) has served as the world’s preeminent ‘reserve currency’ – the means of exchange for most of the rest of the world to do business.
