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Weekly Market Commentary
This particular time of year is often a time of contemplation and reflection. As families and friends gather for the holidays, many pause to consider the year almost past, and perhaps the year to come. Whether its tax-lot accounting for securities bought and sold, or healthcare issues left unattended, or simply holding ourselves accountable for goals unmet, we tackle these issues as an annual right of passage each year.
Weekly Market Commentary
Here in the United States, we had local and regional elections last Tuesday. Several of the ballot initiatives, and many of the candidates, addressed what has commonly been phrased as the inequality gap. To be sure, in an ideal world, everyone has access to, and participation in, the bounty that this country has to offer. From sea to shining sea we do have a plentitude of idea-makers and resources available.
Weekly Market Commentary
With most of the political wrangling and debate nearly over, one hopes, we are left to deal with the residue of their cacophony. Politically, Im not astute enough to try and unravel the truths and un-truths spoken during the government budget debate and shutdown. But as an economic scientist, the numbers reveal an extraordinary landscape of congruent trendlines, missed opportunities, and plausible strategies for safely navigating the next 3 months.
Weekly Market Commentary
If youre like most of us, the continuum of political discourse is, by now, becoming (a) boring (b) laughable (c) shameful (d) disgusting. Let Washington worry about Washington, the markets are churning based upon rumor, innuendo, and hyperbole. It doesnt matter from which side of the circle one enters this maze, all that matters is finding an exit door.
Weekly Market Commentary
October 17th looms large as a critical inflection point in our economic/political discourse. On that date the U.S. Congress is supposed to raise the debt limit, which simply means allocating the funds to cover debts already incurred by the Federal government. The date is being held hostage by both political parties in order to relegitimize the previous election (2012) and to dial-up the rhetoric of disparate political ideology.
Quarterly Market Commentary
Many of us bear emotional scars from the excesses of a debt-driven, casino-like mid-2000 decade. The last recession was punctuated by lost jobs, lowering wages, diminishing portfolio valuations, putrid returns on cash savings, and a total decimation of confidence in the so-called Titans who drove the Wall Street bus during that period.
Weekly Market Commentary
Depending upon where you reside, or on which side of the issues you fall, it was a good week last week. We averted a military strike on Syria by the U.S., at least temporarily; we had reasonable adjustments to economic growth statistics; and most made some money in their portfolios. While cyclical dynamics are relatively benign, the broader secular outlook continues to build a solid foundation for recovery.
Weekly Market Commentary
The Syrian war crisis has prompted another moment in time for the markets to reflect and digest both the near-term and long term consequences of our response from a political and economic perspective. Whats most worrisome is the precedent of previous actions the U.S. has taken in global conflicts, and the potential catalysts for negative consequences for the markets.
Weekly Market Commentary
Despite the markets jittery, almost daily, responses to the Federal Reserves inferences about taking their foot off the pedal, the reality is that secular changes, like the kind considered, occur very slowly and give us enough time to prepare for, and analyze, the consequences real and imagined.Most importantly, we need to see significant changes in data, and perception of that data, over the long term in order to corroborate the Feds decision.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Throughout the 1980s, we heard talk from the investment community to go global, invest worldwide, perhaps driven by true globalization of corporate exchange and balance sheets, and perhaps also by the need by firms to create new products for their consumers to devour. Mutual funds, brokerages, and private equity companies alike saturated the media with product offerings from every corner of the globe and every possible market sector, including telecom, basic materials, energy and industrial development.
Weekly Market Commentary
After having had a tremendous first half of the year, what direction might the market take into the next few quarters? On the one hand, trend analysis has indeed turned positive and would suggest that the throttle is in full go mode. However, we know from historical and economic analysis that markets cannot sustain linear acceleration indefinitely, and that even the most robust trend is susceptible either to linear reversion or cyclical unraveling.
Weekly Market Commentary
With the markets trading at all time highs and investors scurrying to find alpha, much is being made about the demise of the bond market. Analysts and economists are in accord that the age of bond appreciation is over. The cause? Global austerity and national treasuries forcing (holding) interest rates down to their lowest levels in generations.
Weekly Market Commentary
Recent history has shown us that when investors feel prosperous their spending habits become more robust. Sometimes they even throw caution to the wind and splurge on discretionary purchases they previously sought to avoid or postpone. Such is the nature of a rapidly changing landscape that what previously had been a vulnerability now becomes a necessity. The impact of financial decision-making can have a manic effect upon virtually any part of the world. This is why crises become epidemics, and cures become panacea.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Despite recent gains in portfolio valuations, I question whether we are really profiting from the upward surge. To be sure, there is more money in your account, according to your last three monthly statements. And whos to argue that doesnt translate to real dollars, real well-being.
Weekly Market Commentary
The deadly bombings in Boston last week, along with a spate of senseless killings in Newtown and Aurora, should highlight for those consumed by economics and financial market statistics the fragility of life and a sense of perspective about helping those in need at their darkest hour. How noble that on the day of the U.S. equity markets most damaging point collapse in years, our focus was on Boston and not on our wallets or portfolios.
Again and Again.
My work has always been predicated upon using quantitative modifiers to enhance portfolio value through greater efficiency of information processing and the creation of momentum-driven asset allocation models. But because so many investors quizzically suffer from a herd mentality, they find it difficult to digest common sense solutions to diffuse problems. And yet, our methodology and its consistent point of view has enabled clients to benefit without compromising investment expectations.
Weekly Market Commentary
Even after a global market surge that virtually wiped away the four year bear market, equities still seem to be the best game in town. Corporate and individual investors are flocking back to a haven they had abandoned in favor of bonds when, in an era long ago, yields and credit rating offered them a secure place to park money.
Weekly Market Commentary
Although ecstasy reigned supreme last Tuesday as the Dow crossed into record territory, not everyone felt as if they shared in the bounty. It's at times like these that we must be mindful of the distinction between economic recovery and market recovery. Two phenomena which fly in tandem, on parallel tracks, are not always inextricably linked, and in this case the parallel disconnect is wide and obvious.
Weekly Market Commentary
The single biggest predictor of financial growth is not how much money we have stashed away in secret savings accounts, but how much confidence we feel about a fair return for the deployment of those dollars. In that sense, corporations and individuals alike uniformly adhere to a quid pro quo matrix. Investing must be fair; it must be reasonable; and, win or lose, it must be swathed in aspiration that makes us feel worth making the investment in the first place.
Weekly Market Commentary
For many months I have been commenting that the critical element most lacking from our rebound in economic development has been "consumer confidence." Wouldn't it be nice if we could not only quantify confidence but also to define it, accurately? After all, something so nebulous as one's opinion about something, also has the power to shape behavior and consequences for a myriad of financial and economic events. Besides, one man's opinion might not be shared by a multiplicity of others
Grin and Bear It.
Without question, the financial markets yielded better in 2012 than what most had believed possible at the beginning of the calendar year. At that time, embroiled in a U.S. Presidential election and ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, many analysts would have been happy if we simply avoided catastrophe.
Weekly Market Commentary
It's not surprising that the markets responded with a resounding "so what" to Fiscal Cliff negotiations in Congress, and a Federal Reserve pronouncement that it intends to tie low interest rates to low unemployment for the foreseeable future, in order to maintain whatever stimulus effect low-cost borrowing might be having upon economic development.
Weekly Market Commentary
Now that the election is over, and the markets are oversold, the Mideast is again volatile, and the fiscal cliff is fast approaching, most market concern rests with whos going to be the first one in the pool? Interestingly, although the stars are aligned once again to make money in the equities markets, it is still a psychological, not financial, component that governs peoples capital deployment considerations.
Weekly Market Commentary
Fortunately, no one is compelled to invest money. They do so in a climate of tranquility, or turmoil, in an attempt to utilize their specific discipline, their risk/reward tolerances, and their expectations in order to achieve capital gains. There is no "one size fits all" system, nor is everyone suited for an all-in, win or lose, paradigm.
Weekly Market Commentary
And so, we move on. Not simply the collective "we" of the markets, nor the political parties, nor any special agenda groupings, but, really, the global tapestry which can now divert its attention from American politics and focus once again on capitalism, peace-making and common ground solutions.
Weekly Market Commentary
Instinct tells us that a heightened focus upon negative influences yields a self-fulfilling prophecy, a result which is either negative or perceived to be negative. Conversely, an inordinate predisposition with "good news" yields a new normal, a world where everything piggy-backs upon unrealistic expectations. Unfortunately, markets fall victim, too, to this kind of either/or thinking and sometimes rupture the performance of investment portfolios built upon an "all-in" methodology
Weekly Market Commentary
Active investors like to think that it's alright to take risk as long as commensurate reward is a possibility. Further, they base this analysis upon whatever methodology they employ as long as the data, the systems and the game are fair for all who play. Thus, it is no surprise that last year more money was withdrawn from global equity markets than committed, and that more investors operate upon a short-term trading mentality than a longer macro-themed expression.
Moral Hazard.
Overall, equity market risk is dissipating. There appears to be a stronger momentum ameliorating a global tapestry of "ills." What may have been a domino effect when the credit crisis began has stopped short of a cataclysm and turned closer to equilibrium. As a result, equities might be poised to perform. The question is when?
Weekly Market Commentary
Certain studies commissioned by the securities industries governing bodies have recently concluded that terrible things happen to people who are too ignorant to know better. It's amazing that your confidence and trust could be so obfuscated as to propose that an economic tailspin was your fault.
Weekly Market Commentary
Does a powerful upcycle necessarily have to be followed by a downcycle? Well, yes, if one believes in the notion of parabolic quantitative market theory. Given that you can't fill up a phenomenon greater than 100%, nor empty it more than zero, what happens when you reach a statistical "saturation point", when the laws of probability no longer engender positive outcomes?
Weekly Market Commentary
For many weeks, I have received feedback from readers of my commentary that I am "too negative," "too pessimistic" in my views about the markets. While it is true that my objective quantitative science leaves little room for interpretation, let me dispel the notion that it is I, not my data, that is contemptuous of the "next move."
De, In, or Stag?"
So far, key data has been unable to answer conclusively whether we are in deflation, stagflation, or targeted inflation. I wrote several weeks ago that I saw no empirical statistics indicating inflation. I was partly right...and partly wrong. Indeed, I had been early in identifying targeted inflation in tuition, foodstuffs, energy and healthcare. These demographic price hikes are systemic, and mostly driven by consumer demand or ecological/climatological influences.
Weekly Market Commentary
Markets are so fixated on anecdotal and factual imagery like jobs' reports and sentiment meters that they are experiencing mania and panic over the least things. While reaction to hype tends to lead to price exaggerations, I also see a "so what?" response to data that sometimes borders on boredom. I prefer to believe that analytics can be useful in cutting through the ambient noise, to place an identity upon sectors' trends and their probability of trend maintenance.
Weekly Market Commentary
I want to dispel the notion that I am an investment bear. There is nothing wrong with expressing an opinion, bullish or bearish, particularly when the consensus says its alright. Proof of one's courage, though, lies at the margins, during undetectable inflection points, before the consensus has arrived. My track record versus the benchmarks demonstrates a successful delineation between bearishness and being opportunistic.
Weekly Market Commentary
In order to achieve optimal portfolio returns, particularly in un-optimal market periods, it is vital to adopt an ongoing strategy/methodology that is consistent. Attention to details, without capitulation, is the hallmark of a professional portfolio manager. Ideally, one is seeking durable results over the course of a long-term, and not a reflex change to short cycle events.
This film is rated "R"
This is not your fathers stock market. Nor really is it yours, the one you envisioned two decades ago. Instead we may have leveraged, in a literal sense, all the financial details to our heirs. The bad news is that we have become marginalized. Our goals and expectations have been sequestered, postponed, for another time.
Weekly Market Commentary
While the Dow Jones, S&P, and global bourses initially followed the EUs announcements about Spain and Greece with a rebound, the rally stalled last week because facts trumped suspicion. Short sellers and profit takers took control of the markets averting a weekend of being long in the face of more bad news.
Weekly Market Commentary
The big problem last week was in trying to distinguish between macroeconomic factors and underlying stock performance. The resulting decoupling made some equities more vulnerable than aggressive weekly gains might otherwise have one believe. As we muddle through the disappointment of global austerity packages and downwards earning revisions, too many stocks have spurted up simply on traders dreams for a new bull cycle.
Weekly Market Commentary
Each week produces a newer round in global woes, this past being highlighted by Spain and a verbal, if not political, battle over whether austerity trumps spending. We will not know how the debate concludes, but we can see its effects. Manufacturing slowed and consumer confidence went with it. The unknown consequences of a global economic paralysis is, nevertheless, having specific impact upon our markets. Most notably, the stock market is morphing into a roller coaster ride.
Weekly Market Commentary
More importantly than not, it is vital to focus upon a bigger broader landscape when evaluating the condition of ones portfolio, than to focus upon tinier exogenous noise as those factors which indicate the probability of outperformance. Too often, and with more frequency, I have seen micro-analysis paralyze investors decision-making, rendering them incapable of reasonable response.
Results 1–50
of 206 found.
