Changes in Asset Allocation

Asset allocations changed significantly during the first quarter of 2009, as fixed income positions increased and equity positions decreased.  Although some of these shifts were attributable to market movements (US equities declined approximately 11% and foreign equities declined by approximately 14% during the quarter, while the Lehman AGG was down 0.3%), these shifts were attributable to proactive decisions or rebalancing by advisors.   Cash positions remained unchanged during the quarter.

Shifts occurred within US equity allocations, as assets moved out of large and mid-cap and into small cap (reversing movements in the prior quarter), as well as out of blend and into value and growth.  These shifts, particularly at the style level, reflect changes in classifications due to rapidly changing market dynamics, and not due to proactive shifts by advisors.

In the fixed income markets, advisors contracted maturities in the taxable and municipal markets, increasing short and medium term holdings and decreasing long term holdings.

Here are some of the more significant movements during the quarter:

  • Cash positions increased by 0.1%, continuing a trend that has been evident since August of 2007.  Since that time, cash holdings have increased from 7.9% to 12.3% of total assets.  During the first quarter, equity holdings (US and non-US) decreased by 6.8%, while the SPY declined by 11.0%, and developed non-US markets (based on EFA) declined by 14.0%.  Fixed income positions increased by 6.8%, while the benchmark performance (the Lehman AGG) was down 0.3%.  If advisors had not rebalanced during the quarter, equity allocations would have decreased by approximately 3.1% and bond positions would have increased by 2.1% due to market movements, and cash would have increased by 0.9%.  Since the actual movements exceed these approximations, we can infer that, in the aggregate, advisors rebalanced and/or made proactive re-allocations during the fourth quarter.
  • Continuing a trend from the third quarter, assets shifted into US equity and fixed income markets (+1.4%), as non-US positions decreased (-0.8%).  This is partly attributable to market movements and not due to rebalancing by advisors.  Since our analysis began in May of 2007, there has been a shift in assets out of US markets (from 71.4% to 68.3%) and non-US markets (from 9.8% to 8.5%), as cash positions have increased from 8.4% to 12.3%.  This is largely the result of market movements rather than proactive decisions or rebalancing by advisors.
  • Within the US equity markets, there was a shift into large cap (+3.4%) and mid cap (+0.4%) and out of small cap (-3.8%), as well as into value (+4.7%) and growth (+1.6%) and out of blend (-6.1%).  Over the past three quarters, allocations to growth have decreased by 25.5%, from 31.0% to 7.1%.  This shift in style allocations is not due to market movements, and instead is explained by changes in classifications of funds and individual stock positions (i.e., more stocks and funds are now classified as value than in the previous quarter).
  • Within fixed income allocations, muni bond assets increased by 7.8% and taxable bond assets decreased by 4.1%.  More significantly, taxable and municipal maturities contracted, after having extended over the last several quarters.  On the taxable side, maturities shortened considerably, with short term assets increasing by 3.2%, medium term assets increasing by 0.7% and long term assets decreasing by 3.9%.  On the municipal side, short term assets decreased by 0.6%, while medium term assets increased by 2.6%, and long term assets decreased by 1.9%.  Investment grade taxable bond holdings decreased by 1.6% and medium grade holdings increased by almost the same amount.  Municipal bond holdings exhibited the same pattern, with investment grade holdings increasing by 0.1%, medium grade holdings increasing by 0.8%, and high yield holdings decreasing by 0.8%.  These changes in quality are mitigated by the fact that ratings are generally being downgraded, so a lack of rebalancing or proactive decisions would have the same effect on allocations. 

Methodology

Every quarter we review changes in Asset Allocation in the Advisor Perspectives (AP) Universe.  Previous analyses were done:

January 6, 2009
October 8, 2008
July 22, 2008
May 13, 2008
February 19, 2008
November 15, 2007
August 15, 2007
May 27, 2007

This week we look at changes from December 31, 2008 to March 31, 2009.

Our analysis looks at changes across the entire AP Universe.  The AP Universe consists of assets from high net worth (HNW) and ultra-high net worth (UHNW) investors being managed by Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs).  The AP Universe is divided into three tiers based on account size.  In the tier containing the Largest Accounts, the average account size is approximately $3.7 million (and this remained constant over the 12 week period).  Approximately 94% of the assets (by market value) are in the Largest Accounts, so this analysis is primarily indicative of shifts in this account tier.

The tables below show the complete data for the AP Universe for each of the prior measurement periods.  The number in parentheses is the total AUM as of 3/31/09.

Mary Pitek, Operations Manager for Advisor Perspectives, contributed to this article.

By Asset Class ($45,522,151,751)

By Asset Class

Asset Class

5/27/07

8/15/07

11/15/07

1/31/08

4/26/08

6/30/08

10/3/08

12/31/08

3/31/09

Bonds

27.7%

29.2%

28.9%

28.1%

24.8%

24.6%

26.7%

30.4%

37.21%

Cash

8.4%

7.9%

9.0%

9.8%

10.7%

11.1%

11.2%

12.2%

12.26%

Equities

63.5%

62.1%

60.9%

60.9%

62.7%

62.4%

60.4%

56.0%

49.17%

Other

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

1.2%

1.8%

1.9%

1.7%

1.4%

1.36%



Asset Class

Change From

5/27 to
8/15

8/15 to
11/15

11/15 to
1/31

1/31 to
4/26

4/26 to
6/30

6/30 to
10/3

10/3 to
12/31

12/31 to
3/31

Bonds

1.5%

-0.3%

-0.8%

-3.4%

-0.2%

2.1%

3.7%

6.81%

Cash

-0.5%

1.1%

0.8%

0.9%

0.4%

0.1%

1.0%

0.06%

Equities

-1.4%

-1.2%

0.0%

1.8%

-0.3%

-2.0%

-4.4%

-6.83%

Other

0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

0.6%

0.1%

-0.2%

-0.3%

-0.04%

 

By Domicile  ($45,522,151,751)

By Domicile

Domicile

5/27/07

8/15/09

11/15/09

1/31/09

4/26/09

6/30/09

10/3/09

12/31/09

3/31/09

Cash

8.4%

7.9%

9.0%

9.8%

10.7%

11.1%

11.2%

12.2%

12.26%

Foreign

9.8%

11.5%

12.1%

11.7%

13.3%

12.7%

11.1%

9.1%

8.5%

Unknown

10.4%

11.2%

11.3%

10.6%

10.6%

11.4%

11.1%

11.8%

10.96%

US

71.4%

69.4%

67.5%

67.9%

65.4%

64.7%

66.7%

66.9%

68.29%



Domicile

Change From

 

5/27 to 8/15

8/15 to 11/15

11/15 to 1/31

1/31 to 4/26

4/26 to 6/30

6/30 to 10/3

10/3 to 12/31

12/31 to
3/31

Cash

-0.5%

1.1%

0.8%

0.9%

0.4%

0.1%

1.0%

0.06%

Foreign

1.7%

0.6%

-0.4%

1.6%

-0.6%

-1.6%

-2.0%

-0.6%

Unknown

0.8%

0.1%

-0.7%

0.0%

0.8%

-0.3%

0.7%

-0.84%

US

-2.0%

-1.9%

0.4%

-2.6%

-0.7%

2.0%

0.2%

1.39%

 

Non-US Assets ($3,868,037,202)

Non-US Assets

Non-US
Assets

5/27/07

8/15/07

11/15/07

1/31/08

4/26/08

6/30/08

10/3/08

12/31/08

3/31/09

Foreign
Developed
Equities

88.4%

73.2%

75.1%

78.2%

77.6%

77.9%

75.6%

72.7%

70.81%

Foreign
Emerging
Equities

8.7%

23.9%

21.8%

18.6%

18.9%

18.7%

19.8%

23.3%

25.19%

Foreign
Bonds

2.9%

2.9%

3.1%

3.3%

3.5%

3.5%

4.7%

4.0%

4.0%


Non-US Assets

Change From

5/27 to
8/15

8/15 to
11/15

11/15 to
1/31

1/31 to
4/26

4/26 to
6/30

6/30 to
10/3

10/3 to
12/31

12/31 to
3/31

Foreign Developed
Equities

-15.2%

1.9%

3.1%

-0.5%

0.3%

-2.3%

-2.9%

-1.89%

Foreign Emerging
Equities

15.2%

-2.1%

-3.2%

0.3%

-0.2%

1.1%

3.5%

1.89%

Foreign Bonds

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.1%

1.2%

-0.7%

0.0%