Join VettaFi and the investment team from Motley Fool Asset Management as they explore how market dynamics have changed in recent decades—holding periods, active/passive split, trading frequency, and availability of information—and how they believe investors should adapt their mental framework to improve long-term results.
The markets behave differently at night, making the overnight sessions a compelling opportunity for savvy investors looking to enhance their equity returns. In this upcoming LiveCast, NightShares and VettaFi will explore the benefits of tilting to the Night using the NightShares 500 1x/1.5x ETF (NSPL).
The artificial intelligence hype that has propelled US technology stocks in the past few weeks is showing signs of fatigue.
The UK has a complicated, punitive, badly constructed, and all-around dysfunctional tax system.
Spare a thought for the other AT1 crowd — not investors in Additional Tier 1 securities extinguished in Credit Suisse Group AG’s rescue, but shareholders in Aroundtown SA, the Frankfurt-listed property firm with the same stock-market ticker.
The Fed’s refusal to pause rates through the first five months of 2023 raises the odds of a hard landing. The magnitude of the yield-curve inversion has increased the risk inherent in the US banking and financial systems. The impending recession is unnecessary and self-inflicted.
The debt ceiling crisis has been averted—but this short-term relief might come at the cost of greater future peril. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai analyzes the debt-ceiling resolution and delves into the potential longer-term risks that rising public debt poses to financial markets.
International Deep Value: Extreme cheapness ignores relative fundamentals.
With stocks struggling to break out of their range, rates climbing, and valuations stretched investors are rightly asking whether it’s time to sell.
Transitioning into the post-COVID investment environment shifts the foundations of portfolio construction that investors relied on in recent decades. On full display in 2022, inflation and recession risk punished both bonds and stocks together to historic declines.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Nick Peters-Golden and Karrie Gordon discussed the fundamentals for and against investing in Japan ETFs.
The first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt.
Despite market headwinds, investors remain bullish on real estate. As traditional sectors, like office and retail, continue to underperform, farmland presents an opportunity for investors seeking capital preservation and downside protection.
Relative rotation entails shifting among stocks, sectors, and stock factors. The strategy adds significant value to portfolio management if done well.
Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained at Martin Currie, discusses the recent positive earnings reports from large U.S. banks and explains why their firm has no plans to invest in the banking sector.
Investors have had a lot to contend with thus far in 2023. Moderating economic growth, persistent inflation, volatile interest rates, falling profits, stress in the banking sector, war in Ukraine, and the debt ceiling debate all combined to weigh on sentiment.
The once-hot Wall Street trades of 2023 are all falling apart, in a fresh blow to market pros blindsided again and again ever since the pandemic broke out.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 31, 2023 close.
The first step in winning the “war for talent” is understanding what your potential employees want.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
There are no immutable paradigms in our profession. Some outcomes are more likely than others, but declaring that something will “never” happen is dangerous.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Portfolio Manager Alex Zarechnak identifies six key themes from the COVID years—some new, some familiar—to help anchor investors in today’s emerging markets.
Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 5, 2023. Nikkei 225 continued to climb, finishing in the top spot with a YTD gain of 23.46%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 11.76% while Germany's DAXK jumped into third with a YTD gain of 9.09%.
The empirical evidence supports Seigel’s general assertion that stocks beat inflation in the long run. But the inflation-hedging benefits of stocks aren’t perfect.
History suggests that a soft landing might be difficult, as the U.S. has entered a recession following the last five periods when inflation peaked above 5%.
I will analyze the pros and cons of three funds to access the reinsurance market.
The May US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 54.9, which was just below the 55.1 forecast. This morning's reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the fourth straight month and is the strongest reading in over a year.
As fast as it went up for value managers, it’s coming down. The culprit is the all-consuming craze for artificial intelligence.
A robust implementation strategy and real-world implementation capabilities are both necessary in order to achieve your portfolio’s preferred position.
The industry group Airlines for America predicts that approximately 257 million people will travel on U.S. commercial airlines this summer, representing a 9.5% increase from last year. That would also set a new record, as volumes are projected to surpass the summer 2019 levels by around 2 million passengers.
The AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ) has garnered attention recently, but not for positive reasons. Despite using artificial intelligence to make investment decisions, the ETF has struggled to perform well, with a disappointing one-year return of -13.92%.
Structural changes in the world’s energy systems represent significant investment potential across an array of sectors. Analysts on our equity research team offer insights into the impact and opportunities.
Managing substantial wealth often requires specialized capabilities and expertise.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 2, 2023 at 3.69%, the 2-year note ended at 4.50%, and the 30-year at 3.88%.
The employment report for May showed a 339,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The addition is well above expectations of 180,000 new obs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.
The artificial intelligence boom is handing a big win to hedge funds angling for an edge.
A core concern for investors contemplating taking advantage of the incredible cheapness of deep value stocks today is the potential for a near-term recession.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 23.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 28.7.
Truist Financial Corporation is a purpose-driven financial services company committed to inspiring and building better lives and communities. Truist has a leading market share in many high-growth markets in the country.
Choppiness in the equity market continues as investors look to see a debt limit deal approved.
David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.
In the five months prior to U.S. recessions dating to the 1920s, the equity Momentum factor was the top performer, with an annualized cumulative excess market return of +6.7%, on average.
Nick Goetze discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The private equity (PE) industry has been all the rage over the past 10 years.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.41, unchanged from April.
As of May 31, 2023, the 10-year note was 312 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
A quick PSA from RBA: Beware of the coming credit crunch. The key goal of tightening monetary policy is to reduce the flow of credit. It is also important to note that the weakest links always default first. This cycle is so far no different.
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
While markets are often efficient, the current market environment exposes a number of select areas within the bond market that exhibit less efficient behavior. Investors taking a value-oriented bond management approach may find ways to exploit the inefficiencies.
I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had the biggest drawdown since 1786.
This week, the VettaFi Voices come together for an abbreviated chat about an important topic: the debt ceiling.
As an advisor-growth solution, SmartAdvisor™ continuously focuses on helping advisors grow their practices. Last month, in April 2023, it acquired DeftSales, a leading prospect engagement company for financial professionals. DeftSales and SmartAsset™ will combine to offer a robust user interface that is fully compliant, including automated campaigns and analytics, which allow advisors to spend more time honing their communications and improving their skills.
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2023
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.25%, after a gain of 1.46% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final double "cash" signal.
A two-day M&A conference highlighted the growing influence of private-equity investors in the RIA business.
Stock investors who planned for one thing in 2023 are getting something else entirely. Now, with the tech-obsessed market at risk of running away from them, the race is on to catch up.
Some of the most common questions clients ask advisors revolve around retirement:
New research from Dimensional addresses these questions. The study found that investors who tilt towards size, value, and profitability in their equity allocation are likely to enter retirement with significantly more assets, sustain their retirement spending longer, and to leave behind larger bequests than with a standard, broad-market-index portfolio. Given the popularity of broad market indexing, the findings have implications for advisors. Joining us to talk about the research is Mathieu Pellerin.
A range-bound VIX between 20-35 has common markers and dynamics which signal a “crisis gateway” that deserves a defensive posture.
When Jamie Dimon takes center stage at JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s China summit Wednesday, he’ll be confronting a business landscape that looks vastly different from his visit four years ago.
In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Elle Caruso and Karrie Gordon discussed the pros and cons of investing in fossil fuels.
We've described the past several years' stock market as a seesaw in which the "market" was the fulcrum of the seesaw. On one side of the seesaw sit the highly speculative growth sectors and on the other side, sit virtually everything else in the global equity markets.
Swiss money manager Felix Zulauf is a crowd favorite at SIC. His 2022 presentation was right on target, so I asked him back to tell us what he expects for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Unfortunately, he thinks a slowdown is coming that will hit markets hard.
If you were doubting whether the age of AI has arrived, NVIDIA’s stock performance this week may have given you second thoughts.
Exchange-traded funds tracking companies that are linked to artificial intelligence may see their assets grow three-fold to $35 billion by 2030, a report by Bloomberg Intelligence shows.
Republican and White House negotiators are moving closer to an agreement to raise the debt limit and cap federal spending for two years, according to people familiar with the matter, as time grows short to avert a catastrophic US default.
First-quarter earnings largely surprised to the upside, but expectations also had been guided down. What does the latest earnings news mean for stock investors? Carrie King, Global Deputy CIO of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, offers three observations.
An end-of-week feeding frenzy in options of the world’s biggest companies has emerged as two of the hottest trends on Wall Street collide.
Rick Rieder and team argue that a series of small, but more probable, wins in fixed income can pave the way for portfolios to outperform benchmarks in 2023.
The semiconductor cycle is dead, long live the super cycle!
War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, and recession are among the challenges facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term return prospects of equities.
Stocks are having a great year, but gold is doing even better. Year-to-date global equities are up roughly 9% in dollar terms; gold has advanced more than 10%.
Over the past decade or so, there has been a broad trend in the industry toward closing and freezing defined benefit plans.
The two primary styles of dividend investing are growth and yield. In the latter, investors embrace stocks with what are deemed above-average yields — often from slower-growth sectors, such as utilities and real estate.
Investors should rely on the wisdom of crowds as expressed through bond yields, not credit rating agencies, to judge fixed-income credit risk.
In 2011, markets were relatively flat during the year before Congress and the White House (temporarily) buried the hatchet with the passage of the Budget Control Act on August 2, 2011.
The tension around the US debt-limit negotiations ratcheted up after Fitch Ratings warned the nation’s AAA rating was under threat from a political standoff that’s preventing a deal.
The 60/40 portfolio – and diversification in general – is undeniably justified.
Most of us spent moments of our childhood, crayon in hand, connecting numbered dots that gradually revealed a picture that we couldn’t deduce simply by looking at the separate dots. With experience, we got better at looking at those isolated dots and mentally connecting them into a coherent “gestalt.”
The terms private credit and private debt are often used interchangeably to describe direct origination credit strategies. But, the business is also known by another name: non-bank lending.
We prefer private to public credit long term on better return potential. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks as risks fade in the medium term.
One of the advantages of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) compared to other investment vehicles is their relative liquidity. But what is liquidity for an ETF? How does that liquidity actually give ETF investors the upper hand, compared to other assets?
The deadline for the #debtceiling is quickly approaching. Where does each side stand? What does each side have to lose? Will a deal get done despite the hardening of partisan lines? Check out what it all means for investors.
The Fed failed to recognize the danger of its loose monetary policy in 2021. We are seeing its pernicious effect, as the money supply and velocity combined to inflict non-transitory inflation.
We must understand our clients’ purposes and how they fit together in their lives. We need to take the initiative when rebalancing is in order.
Bond-market titans BlackRock Inc., Pacific Investment Management Co. and Vanguard Group Inc. are warning that recent violent swings in US Treasuries are only the beginning of a new era of volatility that’s here to stay until central banks conquer inflation.
Some previously steadfast bears are showing signs of giving in after a seven-month advance put the S&P 500 on the edge of a key chart line.
Diversification is a cornerstone of thoughtful, long-term focused investing. Incorporating assets and asset classes that don’t always move in tandem – that is, their returns aren’t strongly correlated – can help temper stock and bond market risk.
Tax-loss harvesting is one of the direct indexing’s biggest benefits. The automation that direct indexing provides greatly increases the strategy’s potential benefits.
The worst may be over for residential investment.
Mutual Funds
How Long is Long Term for Equity Investors?
Join VettaFi and the investment team from Motley Fool Asset Management as they explore how market dynamics have changed in recent decades—holding periods, active/passive split, trading frequency, and availability of information—and how they believe investors should adapt their mental framework to improve long-term results.
Using NightShares’ NSPL to Tilt to the Night
The markets behave differently at night, making the overnight sessions a compelling opportunity for savvy investors looking to enhance their equity returns. In this upcoming LiveCast, NightShares and VettaFi will explore the benefits of tilting to the Night using the NightShares 500 1x/1.5x ETF (NSPL).
The US Big Tech Bull Case Is Starting to Show Signs of Fatigue
The artificial intelligence hype that has propelled US technology stocks in the past few weeks is showing signs of fatigue.
The Case for Getting Rid of Inheritance Taxes
The UK has a complicated, punitive, badly constructed, and all-around dysfunctional tax system.
Aroundtown Has No Easy Options for $21 Billion of Real Estate Debt
Spare a thought for the other AT1 crowd — not investors in Additional Tier 1 securities extinguished in Credit Suisse Group AG’s rescue, but shareholders in Aroundtown SA, the Frankfurt-listed property firm with the same stock-market ticker.
Odds of a Hard Landing Are Increasing
The Fed’s refusal to pause rates through the first five months of 2023 raises the odds of a hard landing. The magnitude of the yield-curve inversion has increased the risk inherent in the US banking and financial systems. The impending recession is unnecessary and self-inflicted.
Debt Ceiling to Markets—I’ll Be Back!
The debt ceiling crisis has been averted—but this short-term relief might come at the cost of greater future peril. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai analyzes the debt-ceiling resolution and delves into the potential longer-term risks that rising public debt poses to financial markets.
Jump In The Deep End
International Deep Value: Extreme cheapness ignores relative fundamentals.
Will Selling in May Work This Year? Maybe Not
With stocks struggling to break out of their range, rates climbing, and valuations stretched investors are rightly asking whether it’s time to sell.
A New Playbook for Portfolio Diversification
Transitioning into the post-COVID investment environment shifts the foundations of portfolio construction that investors relied on in recent decades. On full display in 2022, inflation and recession risk punished both bonds and stocks together to historic declines.
Bull vs. Bear: Is The Hype for Japan ETFs Justified?
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Nick Peters-Golden and Karrie Gordon discussed the fundamentals for and against investing in Japan ETFs.
The Aftershock Economy
The first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt.
Farmland – The New Frontier of Real Estate Investing
Despite market headwinds, investors remain bullish on real estate. As traditional sectors, like office and retail, continue to underperform, farmland presents an opportunity for investors seeking capital preservation and downside protection.
Relative Rotation – Unlocking the Hidden Potential (Part 1)
Relative rotation entails shifting among stocks, sectors, and stock factors. The strategy adds significant value to portfolio management if done well.
Big U.S. Banks Had A Good Quarter. We Still Have No Plans to Invest in Them.
Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained at Martin Currie, discusses the recent positive earnings reports from large U.S. banks and explains why their firm has no plans to invest in the banking sector.
Mid-Year Market Outlook
Investors have had a lot to contend with thus far in 2023. Moderating economic growth, persistent inflation, volatile interest rates, falling profits, stress in the banking sector, war in Ukraine, and the debt ceiling debate all combined to weigh on sentiment.
Wall Street’s Once-Hot Trades of 2023 Are Unraveling in Markets
The once-hot Wall Street trades of 2023 are all falling apart, in a fresh blow to market pros blindsided again and again ever since the pandemic broke out.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 31, 2023 close.
How to Recruit Top Talent
The first step in winning the “war for talent” is understanding what your potential employees want.
A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Ask Brad: Beware False Prophets and Pundits
There are no immutable paradigms in our profession. Some outcomes are more likely than others, but declaring that something will “never” happen is dangerous.
Important Individual Bond Product Points
Doug Drabik discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
What Changed with the Pandemic (And What Didn’t)
Portfolio Manager Alex Zarechnak identifies six key themes from the COVID years—some new, some familiar—to help anchor investors in today’s emerging markets.
World Markets Watchlist: June 5, 2023
Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 5, 2023. Nikkei 225 continued to climb, finishing in the top spot with a YTD gain of 23.46%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 11.76% while Germany's DAXK jumped into third with a YTD gain of 9.09%.
Is Jeremy Siegel Right About Stocks for the Long Run?
The empirical evidence supports Seigel’s general assertion that stocks beat inflation in the long run. But the inflation-hedging benefits of stocks aren’t perfect.
Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing at All?
History suggests that a soft landing might be difficult, as the U.S. has entered a recession following the last five periods when inflation peaked above 5%.
Which Fund to Choose for Exposure to the Reinsurance Risk Premium
I will analyze the pros and cons of three funds to access the reinsurance market.
S&P Global Services PMI: Strongest Expansion in Over a Year
The May US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 54.9, which was just below the 55.1 forecast. This morning's reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the fourth straight month and is the strongest reading in over a year.
How the Value Trade Has Been Smoked by the AI Frenzy
As fast as it went up for value managers, it’s coming down. The culprit is the all-consuming craze for artificial intelligence.
Know How To Get There: Three Implementation Capabilities You Should Demand From Your OCIO Provider
A robust implementation strategy and real-world implementation capabilities are both necessary in order to achieve your portfolio’s preferred position.
Airlines Are Bracing For Record Summer Travel. A Golden Opportunity For Investors?
The industry group Airlines for America predicts that approximately 257 million people will travel on U.S. commercial airlines this summer, representing a 9.5% increase from last year. That would also set a new record, as volumes are projected to surpass the summer 2019 levels by around 2 million passengers.
Assessing the AIEQ ETF: Implications for AI Investing
The AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ) has garnered attention recently, but not for positive reasons. Despite using artificial intelligence to make investment decisions, the ETF has struggled to perform well, with a disappointing one-year return of -13.92%.
Energy Transition Generates Potential Investment Opportunities
Structural changes in the world’s energy systems represent significant investment potential across an array of sectors. Analysts on our equity research team offer insights into the impact and opportunities.
Complex, Significant Wealth Warrants Elevated Support
Managing substantial wealth often requires specialized capabilities and expertise.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 2, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 2, 2023 at 3.69%, the 2-year note ended at 4.50%, and the 30-year at 3.88%.
Employment Report: 339K Jobs Added in May
The employment report for May showed a 339,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The addition is well above expectations of 180,000 new obs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.
Goldman’s Hedge Fund ETF Is Crushing the S&P 500 With AI Bets
The artificial intelligence boom is handing a big win to hedge funds angling for an edge.
Value Does Just Fine in Recessions
A core concern for investors contemplating taking advantage of the incredible cheapness of deep value stocks today is the potential for a near-term recession.
P/E10 Unchanged in May
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 23.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 28.7.
Can you Bank On Truist Financial’s 6.69% Dividend?
Truist Financial Corporation is a purpose-driven financial services company committed to inspiring and building better lives and communities. Truist has a leading market share in many high-growth markets in the country.
Conflicting Signals Add Uncertainty to Fed’s Rate Path
Choppiness in the equity market continues as investors look to see a debt limit deal approved.
Macro Tailwinds for Emerging Markets
David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.
Factor Investing and U.S. Recessions: How Have Key Equity Factors Performed on a Historical Basis?
In the five months prior to U.S. recessions dating to the 1920s, the equity Momentum factor was the top performer, with an annualized cumulative excess market return of +6.7%, on average.
What Are You Waiting For?
Nick Goetze discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Private Equity Has a Problem
The private equity (PE) industry has been all the rage over the past 10 years.
Q-Ratio Unchanged in May
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.41, unchanged from April.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2023, the 10-year note was 312 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
Defaults Accelerating: Beware the Coming Credit Crunch
A quick PSA from RBA: Beware of the coming credit crunch. The key goal of tightening monetary policy is to reduce the flow of credit. It is also important to note that the weakest links always default first. This cycle is so far no different.
The Far-Reaching Effects of Commercial Real Estate’s Downward Spiral
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
Value Oriented Bond Management Amid Economic Chaos
While markets are often efficient, the current market environment exposes a number of select areas within the bond market that exhibit less efficient behavior. Investors taking a value-oriented bond management approach may find ways to exploit the inefficiencies.
The Treasury Bond. It’s Time Has Likely Come.
I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had the biggest drawdown since 1786.
VettaFi Voices On: Debt Ceiling Investing
This week, the VettaFi Voices come together for an abbreviated chat about an important topic: the debt ceiling.
How SmartAsset Connects Advisors to Prospects
As an advisor-growth solution, SmartAdvisor™ continuously focuses on helping advisors grow their practices. Last month, in April 2023, it acquired DeftSales, a leading prospect engagement company for financial professionals. DeftSales and SmartAsset™ will combine to offer a robust user interface that is fully compliant, including automated campaigns and analytics, which allow advisors to spend more time honing their communications and improving their skills.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes May Up 0.25%
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2023
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.25%, after a gain of 1.46% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final double "cash" signal.
More RIA Consolidation Ahead
A two-day M&A conference highlighted the growing influence of private-equity investors in the RIA business.
Stock Traders Turn to Options for Desperate Chase to Catch the Tech Rally
Stock investors who planned for one thing in 2023 are getting something else entirely. Now, with the tech-obsessed market at risk of running away from them, the race is on to catch up.
Size, Value and Factor Exposures Improve Retirement Outcomes
Some of the most common questions clients ask advisors revolve around retirement:
New research from Dimensional addresses these questions. The study found that investors who tilt towards size, value, and profitability in their equity allocation are likely to enter retirement with significantly more assets, sustain their retirement spending longer, and to leave behind larger bequests than with a standard, broad-market-index portfolio. Given the popularity of broad market indexing, the findings have implications for advisors. Joining us to talk about the research is Mathieu Pellerin.
The Time is Now for a Systemic Market Hedge
A range-bound VIX between 20-35 has common markers and dynamics which signal a “crisis gateway” that deserves a defensive posture.
Dimon Confronts New China Reality in First Visit Since Covid
When Jamie Dimon takes center stage at JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s China summit Wednesday, he’ll be confronting a business landscape that looks vastly different from his visit four years ago.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Rebound Continued in March
In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.
Bull vs. Bear: Is There a Future for Fossil Fuel Investments?
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Elle Caruso and Karrie Gordon discussed the pros and cons of investing in fossil fuels.
The Seesaw Becomes Extreme
We've described the past several years' stock market as a seesaw in which the "market" was the fulcrum of the seesaw. On one side of the seesaw sit the highly speculative growth sectors and on the other side, sit virtually everything else in the global equity markets.
SIC Mix
Swiss money manager Felix Zulauf is a crowd favorite at SIC. His 2022 presentation was right on target, so I asked him back to tell us what he expects for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Unfortunately, he thinks a slowdown is coming that will hit markets hard.
The AI Era Unleashed: How NVIDIA’s Stock Boom Reflects The Future Of Tech
If you were doubting whether the age of AI has arrived, NVIDIA’s stock performance this week may have given you second thoughts.
AI-Focused ETF Assets Could Triple to $35 billion by 2030
Exchange-traded funds tracking companies that are linked to artificial intelligence may see their assets grow three-fold to $35 billion by 2030, a report by Bloomberg Intelligence shows.
Emerging US Debt Deal Would Raise Limit, Cap Spending for Two Years
Republican and White House negotiators are moving closer to an agreement to raise the debt limit and cap federal spending for two years, according to people familiar with the matter, as time grows short to avert a catastrophic US default.
Thank You, Consumer, and Other Sentiments From Q1 Earnings
First-quarter earnings largely surprised to the upside, but expectations also had been guided down. What does the latest earnings news mean for stock investors? Carrie King, Global Deputy CIO of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, offers three observations.
Friday Is Now an Options Feeding Frenzy as Big Tech Meets Zero-Day Options
An end-of-week feeding frenzy in options of the world’s biggest companies has emerged as two of the hottest trends on Wall Street collide.
It’s Time to Start Playing Investment “Small Ball” in Portfolios
Rick Rieder and team argue that a series of small, but more probable, wins in fixed income can pave the way for portfolios to outperform benchmarks in 2023.
Live at the Sub-ICs
The semiconductor cycle is dead, long live the super cycle!
The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World
War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, and recession are among the challenges facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term return prospects of equities.
An End To Tightening Supports Gold
Stocks are having a great year, but gold is doing even better. Year-to-date global equities are up roughly 9% in dollar terms; gold has advanced more than 10%.
$20 Billion Club Strategy Series – Benefits Policy
Over the past decade or so, there has been a broad trend in the industry toward closing and freezing defined benefit plans.
Examining the Importance of Dividend Growth
The two primary styles of dividend investing are growth and yield. In the latter, investors embrace stocks with what are deemed above-average yields — often from slower-growth sectors, such as utilities and real estate.
The Bond Market Knows More than the Credit Rating Agencies
Investors should rely on the wisdom of crowds as expressed through bond yields, not credit rating agencies, to judge fixed-income credit risk.
Investors Only Have Eyes for Cash
In 2011, markets were relatively flat during the year before Congress and the White House (temporarily) buried the hatchet with the passage of the Budget Control Act on August 2, 2011.
US Credit Rating at Risk of Fitch Cut on Debt-Limit Impasse
The tension around the US debt-limit negotiations ratcheted up after Fitch Ratings warned the nation’s AAA rating was under threat from a political standoff that’s preventing a deal.
Long Live the 60/40 Portfolio
The 60/40 portfolio – and diversification in general – is undeniably justified.
Money, Banking, and Markets – Connecting the Dots
Most of us spent moments of our childhood, crayon in hand, connecting numbered dots that gradually revealed a picture that we couldn’t deduce simply by looking at the separate dots. With experience, we got better at looking at those isolated dots and mentally connecting them into a coherent “gestalt.”
Opportunity From Crisis: How Private Credit Stands to Benefit From Recent Tumult in the Banking System
The terms private credit and private debt are often used interchangeably to describe direct origination credit strategies. But, the business is also known by another name: non-bank lending.
Public or Private? A Strategic Question
We prefer private to public credit long term on better return potential. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks as risks fade in the medium term.
ETF Liquidity: What Is It and How Does It Benefit Investors?
One of the advantages of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) compared to other investment vehicles is their relative liquidity. But what is liquidity for an ETF? How does that liquidity actually give ETF investors the upper hand, compared to other assets?
A Look at the Debt Ceiling
The deadline for the #debtceiling is quickly approaching. Where does each side stand? What does each side have to lose? Will a deal get done despite the hardening of partisan lines? Check out what it all means for investors.
The Fed Was Dead Wrong
The Fed failed to recognize the danger of its loose monetary policy in 2021. We are seeing its pernicious effect, as the money supply and velocity combined to inflict non-transitory inflation.
Rebalancing Your Clients’ “Purpose Portfolio”
We must understand our clients’ purposes and how they fit together in their lives. We need to take the initiative when rebalancing is in order.
Pimco, BlackRock Call End to Era of Stable Borrowing Costs
Bond-market titans BlackRock Inc., Pacific Investment Management Co. and Vanguard Group Inc. are warning that recent violent swings in US Treasuries are only the beginning of a new era of volatility that’s here to stay until central banks conquer inflation.
Hedge Funds Rush to Buy Stocks on S&P 500’s Momentum
Some previously steadfast bears are showing signs of giving in after a seven-month advance put the S&P 500 on the edge of a key chart line.
Wheat, Gold and the Pursuit of a Zero-Correlation Investment
Diversification is a cornerstone of thoughtful, long-term focused investing. Incorporating assets and asset classes that don’t always move in tandem – that is, their returns aren’t strongly correlated – can help temper stock and bond market risk.
How Direct Indexing Automation Aids Tax-Loss Harvesting
Tax-loss harvesting is one of the direct indexing’s biggest benefits. The automation that direct indexing provides greatly increases the strategy’s potential benefits.
A Constructive Outlook
The worst may be over for residential investment.