Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
US dollar cycles are long.
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
Checking your 401(k) account balance is a little less painful these days.
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
It’s big news that Envestnet is moving into the RIA custodial space and will soon be competing head-to-head with its biggest integration partners: an expanded Schwab platform, Fidelity and Pershing. I suspect that this is just the first of many so-called software “platforms” that will jump into the custody competition.
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy?
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Cathie Wood is back to selling JD.com Inc. shares after a hiatus of about six months as Chinese technology stocks see a historic rebound helped by regulatory easing.
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
A common mistake that investors make regarding dividend portfolio construction is not having a well-thought-out plan.
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
Nearly seven years have passed since the publication of our 2016 paper “How Can ‘Smart Beta’ Go Horribly Wrong?”
It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.
Advisors must redesign their entire approach, starting from the client's point of view.
Home prices have started to correct as interest rates rose sharply in 2022.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
Our 2022 ESG manager survey findings reinforced our belief that the integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment processes is here to stay.
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Demand for Europe’s debt sales has topped half a trillion euros already this year as investors seek to put money to work in bonds offering some of the highest yields in years.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is making a $1 billion wager that small private equity firms without the heft of the biggest buyout institutions can boost the pension giant’s returns and clout.
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
At KCR, we believe in the Quantamental Investment approach–a strategy that leverages the most useful aspects of both quantitative investing and fundamental investing.
With the aggressive pace of rate hikes in 2022 and inflation slowly starting to come down, we are optimistic that we are in the later stages of the tightening cycle.
Deep value offers a compelling opportunity within U.S. equities.
Meta Platforms Inc. is expected to be the top-performing megacap internet stock this year, according to a JPMorgan survey of investors, suggesting a rebound for the Facebook parent after its worst year on record.
Tens of thousands of tech sector job cuts may not be enough to reverse the collapse in share prices, given the looming economic downturn could slash companies’ revenues far more than the cost savings they make via layoffs.
Asia’s benchmark stock index was on track to enter a bull market, as China’s reopening and a weakening dollar lure investors back to the region.
Investors are bracing for a miserable stretch of earnings reports that will likely extend the dominance of value shares as Corporate America grapples with high inflation and rising borrowing costs, the latest MLIV Pulse survey shows.
U.S. consumers did not slow their spending over the holidays.
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
Countless investment practitioners and academics have unsuccessfully searched for the metric that can successfully identify future mutual fund outperformers. What follows is the saga of the latest failed attempt.
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
Learn trading techniques to better control pricing when buying or selling ETFs.
The $6.5 trillion US ETF industry boomed in 2022 as innovative product debuts and market volatility fueled a near-record number of launches. But the fanfare revealed a major flaw in the space: the lack of women helming the funds.
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
This is my least favorite time of the year.
In the rough year ahead, bonds might be one of the only bright spots. It would mark a dramatic turnaround from 2022, when bonds fell alongside almost every other asset class, posting their worst year in a generation.
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
The US stock market will bottom by the middle of 2023 as the Federal Reserve tamps down inflation without causing anything worse than a “mild” economic recession, according to Byron Wien’s annual list of surprises.
In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we illustrate the relative attractiveness of select developed international sectors.
Let's examine the three paths the Fed might take in 2023 and what they mean for stock prices.
Bob Doll, CIO at Crossmark Global Investments, provides his annual 10 predictions for financial markets.
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Tesla Inc. is expected to announce record quarterly deliveries in early January but that may not be enough to satisfy investors as the electric-vehicle leader grapples with inflation, rising interest rates, crimped production in China and concerns about softening demand.
Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.
Much ink has been spilled over the death of the 60/40 portfolio.
The US Treasury Department signaled some imported cars will qualify for electric-vehicle tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, a move that could assuage Asian and European allies’ concerns about the sweeping climate legislation.
Bear markets end with widespread capitulation while a chorus of the stock trader’s prayer (God, if you get me out of this mess, I swear I will never buy another stock) spreads through out the land.
Enjoy the latest Newsletter from Harold Evensky.
The asset management arm of BNP Paribas SA said using a different interpretation of “sustainable investment” than some of its peers has allowed it to keep the European Union’s top ESG tag attached to about $20 billion worth of funds.
Crypto is squarely in the cross hairs of Washington regulators, with fresh calls for stricter controls before the industry can get big enough to affect the broader financial system.
Extremely harsh weather conditions from winter storm Elliot resulted in thousands of flight cancellations last weekend.
The end of 2022 can’t come soon enough for many in the banking industry. Sputtering capital markets, job cuts, raging inflation, the crypto meltdown and rising interest rates marked a year of upheaval.
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
Investors ready to turn the page on the worst year for equities since the global financial crisis should brace for more pain heading into 2023.
It appears to us at Smead Capital Management that investors are behaving in a way that will damage their capital and cause them to suffer stock market failure.
In 2023, the math of valuations suggests returns will likely be challenging as markets remain difficult to navigate.
The credit cycle and the economic cycle are excellent leading indicators of volatility.
A handful of giant firms are gaining dominance over the hottest corners of the hedge fund industry. This year showed why.
“I have never seen so much bearishness in the market,” Jeremy Siegel said, “which is a great sign for stock investors.”
The economic tea leaves suggest that 2023 could be another challenging year for both stocks and bonds. However, the outlook is more balanced given that equity valuations are much lower and bond yields much higher.
When a society embraces cognitive diversity, powerful outcomes can result. In this episode of The Active Share, Hugo sits down with Matthew Syed, a best-selling author, highly acclaimed speaker, and award-winning journalist, to discuss what it means to think in complex ways; the implications of moving away from group think; and how investors can benefit from diverse cultures and voices.
This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. That means we will touch on a variety of topics, kind of a snapshot into where my mind is today. Get ready to travel the world but let’s start at home with the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
The key takeaway from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting: despite encouraging inflation news, the Fed believes they have a long inflation fight ahead.
Active Management
Performance Persistence Matters
Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Why Have Equal-Weighted Portfolios Outperformed the Market?
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
The “Pain Trade” Is Higher For Now
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
Popular 401(k) Funds Rebound After Tanking in 2022
Checking your 401(k) account balance is a little less painful these days.
Selecting the Best Dividend Growth Stocks for Total Return: Part 2
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.
China Reopening an Insignificant Factor for Germany So Far
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
Municipal Bonds: Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
The Perversion Afflicting Value Investors
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
Recession Fear Investing
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
From Inflation Reduction To Trade Friction
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
IG Outlook: Positive Technicals, Deteriorating Fundamentals
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
World Markets Update: January 20, 2023
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
The Crypto Crackdown Is Just Getting Started
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Fortune Doesn’t Always Favor the Bold: The Perils of Concentrated Stock Positions
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
How Custodial Competition Will Transform the Advisor Space
It’s big news that Envestnet is moving into the RIA custodial space and will soon be competing head-to-head with its biggest integration partners: an expanded Schwab platform, Fidelity and Pershing. I suspect that this is just the first of many so-called software “platforms” that will jump into the custody competition.
Monetary Policy. Is The Fed Trying To Wean Markets Off Of It?
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy?
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Cathie Wood Resumes Selling in JD.com for First Time Since July
Cathie Wood is back to selling JD.com Inc. shares after a hiatus of about six months as Chinese technology stocks see a historic rebound helped by regulatory easing.
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Constructing a Dividend Growth Stock Portfolio for Total Return
A common mistake that investors make regarding dividend portfolio construction is not having a well-thought-out plan.
Mid-Cap ETFs’ Moment
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
Macro Hedge Funds Had a Banner Year. Can They Stage an Encore?
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
Revisiting Our “Horribly Wrong” Paper: That Was Then, This Is Now
Nearly seven years have passed since the publication of our 2016 paper “How Can ‘Smart Beta’ Go Horribly Wrong?”
Areté Market Review Q422: Cash is King-ish
It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.
To Deliver a Transformative Experience Think Like a Client
Advisors must redesign their entire approach, starting from the client's point of view.
Home Prices Will Likely Fall Further
Home prices have started to correct as interest rates rose sharply in 2022.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
Global Credit Outlook: Cautious on Turbulence & Technicals
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
2022 ESG Survey Deep Dive: Active Ownership Review
Our 2022 ESG manager survey findings reinforced our belief that the integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment processes is here to stay.
The Fed Wants Lower Stock Prices
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
Top US Banks Slash Bond Sales, a Bright Spot for Investors
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Europe Debt Demand Is Already at Half a Trillion Dollars in 2023
Demand for Europe’s debt sales has topped half a trillion euros already this year as investors seek to put money to work in bonds offering some of the highest yields in years.
Equities Are Searching for Clarity
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
3 Investment Themes for 2023
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
Calpers Makes $1 Billion Bet on Small Funds as New CIO Reshapes Pension
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is making a $1 billion wager that small private equity firms without the heft of the biggest buyout institutions can boost the pension giant’s returns and clout.
Gundlach: Bonds are Much Cheaper than Stocks
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
Quantamental Investing: A Brief Primer on KCR’s Toolkits
At KCR, we believe in the Quantamental Investment approach–a strategy that leverages the most useful aspects of both quantitative investing and fundamental investing.
The Back Half of the Hike Cycle
With the aggressive pace of rate hikes in 2022 and inflation slowly starting to come down, we are optimistic that we are in the later stages of the tightening cycle.
Memo To The Investment Committee: A Hidden Gem
Deep value offers a compelling opportunity within U.S. equities.
Meta Named Favorite Internet Stock for 2023 in JPMorgan Survey
Meta Platforms Inc. is expected to be the top-performing megacap internet stock this year, according to a JPMorgan survey of investors, suggesting a rebound for the Facebook parent after its worst year on record.
Amazon, Salesforce Job Cuts Are Warning Signs for Stock Prices
Tens of thousands of tech sector job cuts may not be enough to reverse the collapse in share prices, given the looming economic downturn could slash companies’ revenues far more than the cost savings they make via layoffs.
Asia Stocks on Track to Enter Bull Market as China Rally Extends
Asia’s benchmark stock index was on track to enter a bull market, as China’s reopening and a weakening dollar lure investors back to the region.
Value Stocks to Lure Investors During Grim Earnings Season
Investors are bracing for a miserable stretch of earnings reports that will likely extend the dominance of value shares as Corporate America grapples with high inflation and rising borrowing costs, the latest MLIV Pulse survey shows.
Holiday Shopping Season: What Recession?
U.S. consumers did not slow their spending over the holidays.
When Old Rules Break Down, Consider a New Investing Approach
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
The Never-Ending Failure to Identify Future Mutual Fund Outperformers
Countless investment practitioners and academics have unsuccessfully searched for the metric that can successfully identify future mutual fund outperformers. What follows is the saga of the latest failed attempt.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Stay High Quality in 2023
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
Understanding “Guaranteed” Market-on-Close
Learn trading techniques to better control pricing when buying or selling ETFs.
Women Rarely Manage ETFs. Meet the Team Looking to Change That
The $6.5 trillion US ETF industry boomed in 2022 as innovative product debuts and market volatility fueled a near-record number of launches. But the fanfare revealed a major flaw in the space: the lack of women helming the funds.
Is It Time To Rethink The 60/40 Portfolio?
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
I Hate New Years
This is my least favorite time of the year.
Here Are the Top ETFs for Retail Investors in 2023
In the rough year ahead, bonds might be one of the only bright spots. It would mark a dramatic turnaround from 2022, when bonds fell alongside almost every other asset class, posting their worst year in a generation.
JPMorgan’s Smash-Hit ‘Income’ ETF Seen Battling Off Bond Market
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Alternative Investments: The Case for Real Estate
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
Byron Wien Sees Market Bottom by Mid-Year, Positive Real Rates
The US stock market will bottom by the middle of 2023 as the Federal Reserve tamps down inflation without causing anything worse than a “mild” economic recession, according to Byron Wien’s annual list of surprises.
Quarterly Strategy Report: Global Equity Opportunities
In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we illustrate the relative attractiveness of select developed international sectors.
Three Paths for 2023
Let's examine the three paths the Fed might take in 2023 and what they mean for stock prices.
10 Predictions for 2023
Bob Doll, CIO at Crossmark Global Investments, provides his annual 10 predictions for financial markets.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Tesla Poised for Delivery Record Despite Demand Concerns
Tesla Inc. is expected to announce record quarterly deliveries in early January but that may not be enough to satisfy investors as the electric-vehicle leader grapples with inflation, rising interest rates, crimped production in China and concerns about softening demand.
Moving Averages: S&P Down 5.9% in December, Down 19.4% in 2022
Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.
60/40 Portfolio Set to Outperform Over the Next Decade
Much ink has been spilled over the death of the 60/40 portfolio.
US Treasury Signals Opening for Foreign Carmakers on EV Subsidy
The US Treasury Department signaled some imported cars will qualify for electric-vehicle tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, a move that could assuage Asian and European allies’ concerns about the sweeping climate legislation.
The 70% Solution
Bear markets end with widespread capitulation while a chorus of the stock trader’s prayer (God, if you get me out of this mess, I swear I will never buy another stock) spreads through out the land.
NewsLetter - December 2022
Enjoy the latest Newsletter from Harold Evensky.
BNP Defends $20 Billion ESG Call as Downgrades Feed Controversy
The asset management arm of BNP Paribas SA said using a different interpretation of “sustainable investment” than some of its peers has allowed it to keep the European Union’s top ESG tag attached to about $20 billion worth of funds.
From Crypto to ESG, These Are US Regulators' Top Priorities in 2023
Crypto is squarely in the cross hairs of Washington regulators, with fresh calls for stricter controls before the industry can get big enough to affect the broader financial system.
Southwest Airlines Struggles after Holiday Cancellations
Extremely harsh weather conditions from winter storm Elliot resulted in thousands of flight cancellations last weekend.
Recession, Rate Hikes, Diversity- What's Ahead for Banks in 2023
The end of 2022 can’t come soon enough for many in the banking industry. Sputtering capital markets, job cuts, raging inflation, the crypto meltdown and rising interest rates marked a year of upheaval.
The Federal Reserve is Killing Capitalism
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
Wall Street Strategists Say 2023 Equity Recovery Won't Be Easy
Investors ready to turn the page on the worst year for equities since the global financial crisis should brace for more pain heading into 2023.
Unreliable Contrarianism
It appears to us at Smead Capital Management that investors are behaving in a way that will damage their capital and cause them to suffer stock market failure.
Valuation Math Suggests Difficult Markets In 2023
In 2023, the math of valuations suggests returns will likely be challenging as markets remain difficult to navigate.
Why We Should Expect Higher Volatility For Longer
The credit cycle and the economic cycle are excellent leading indicators of volatility.
Bigger Was Better in 2022: Global Hedge-Fund Industry Sees Split
A handful of giant firms are gaining dominance over the hottest corners of the hedge fund industry. This year showed why.
Jeremy Siegel: The Excessive Bearishness is Great for Equity Investors
“I have never seen so much bearishness in the market,” Jeremy Siegel said, “which is a great sign for stock investors.”
Fourth Quarter 2022 Economic Review and Outlook
The economic tea leaves suggest that 2023 could be another challenging year for both stocks and bonds. However, the outlook is more balanced given that equity valuations are much lower and bond yields much higher.
Diverse Thought, Endless Possibilities
When a society embraces cognitive diversity, powerful outcomes can result. In this episode of The Active Share, Hugo sits down with Matthew Syed, a best-selling author, highly acclaimed speaker, and award-winning journalist, to discuss what it means to think in complex ways; the implications of moving away from group think; and how investors can benefit from diverse cultures and voices.
Higher for Longer
This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. That means we will touch on a variety of topics, kind of a snapshot into where my mind is today. Get ready to travel the world but let’s start at home with the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
New York Manufacturing Survey Validates The Fed
The key takeaway from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting: despite encouraging inflation news, the Fed believes they have a long inflation fight ahead.