The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?
I wrote this article in 2030 after I interviewed several retirees whose income plans were designed by ChatRET.
The Fed’s refusal to pause rates through the first five months of 2023 raises the odds of a hard landing. The magnitude of the yield-curve inversion has increased the risk inherent in the US banking and financial systems. The impending recession is unnecessary and self-inflicted.
Andy Rothman provides a first-hand perspective from his first trip to Shanghai and Beijing since the start of COVID in 2019.
I've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 339K.
Let's take a close look at May's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.6% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 16.4% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Let’s change the language for how we help employees make behavioral shifts.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Top Silver Mining CEO: "On the demand side, it’s pretty phenomenal…"
Two years after inflation surged, the Federal Reserve has made limited progress tamping it down. A coterie of investors in the bond market is betting not only that policymakers will win, but that they’re right in anticipating the era of low long-term interest rates will return.
The measure ends weeks of negotiation and unease about a potentially catastrophic government default.
At of the start of this year, Rick Pitcairn took on a new position as the chief global strategist at Pitcairn, a 100-year-old multi-family office with $7bn in client assets. In this position, he is focusing on macro-economic trends and is searching for new global initiatives that will add to the firm’s growth.
Rick recently journeyed to India where he met with some of the wealthiest local families to discuss multi-generational wealth transfer. He saw that people all around the world want the same things, including economic security and a safe environment to raise their children. But the investing and business environments differ significantly. Rick knows that U.S. investors have a home bias, but he saw substantial economic growth is happening outside our borders. Rick is here to discuss if an international allocation appropriate or too risky.
The empirical evidence supports Seigel’s general assertion that stocks beat inflation in the long run. But the inflation-hedging benefits of stocks aren’t perfect.
Financial decisions that are not based on personal integrity are risky in many ways. Making sound, ethical financial choices – and teaching our children to do the same – is essential for financial wellbeing.
I will analyze the pros and cons of three funds to access the reinsurance market.
While tuition is the main qualified expense you think of when you get a 529, there are other tangential education expenses that will also qualify.
The latest last-minute deal to raise the US debt limit does not solve the underlying political problem. On the contrary, with the country on track for a Biden-Trump rematch next year – a contest that Trump just might win – the truce is likely to be short-lived.
529 plan benefits abound no matter which type of plan you choose. Read on to get a full understanding of what 529 plans can do for you.
After a continued rally in April, markets largely pulled back in May. Exceptions here were the Nasdaq, which rose, and the S&P 500, which was essentially flat.
The G7 countries may have set out to deter China without escalating the new cold war, but the perception in Beijing suggests that they failed to thread the needle at their recent summit in Hiroshima.
Humanity is sitting on a time bomb.
The US Federal Reserve is adrift, and it has only itself to blame. Regardless of whether its policy-setting committee announces another interest-rate hike in June, its top priority now should be to address the structural weaknesses that led it astray in the first place.
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
Investors have been loading up on T-bills and money market funds this year, but according to our Total Return team, that is not a sustainable strategy as it exposes investors to both reinvestment risk and inflation while creating an asset/liability mismatch.
Without understanding people – how they think and act, and what they believe – you can’t effectively help them, no matter how good you are at planning or asset allocation.
The concentration of gains up the cap spectrum isn't itself a precursor to weakness; it's the lack of participation from the "average stock" that warrants some caution.
The latest artificial intelligence hype is powering a massive surge in the stock market on bets that a new era of innovation is nigh.
Some of the most common questions clients ask advisors revolve around retirement:
New research from Dimensional addresses these questions. The study found that investors who tilt towards size, value, and profitability in their equity allocation are likely to enter retirement with significantly more assets, sustain their retirement spending longer, and to leave behind larger bequests than with a standard, broad-market-index portfolio. Given the popularity of broad market indexing, the findings have implications for advisors. Joining us to talk about the research is Mathieu Pellerin.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index ® slipped to 102.3 in May from April's upwardly revised reading of 103.7. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 99.0 forecast. The latest figure is the index's lowest reading in the past six months.
As the debt ceiling fight in Washington heads down to the wire with the risk of a technical default looming, investors are growing nervous.
VettaFi’s financial futurist Dave Nadig spoke at length with Reverend Michael Tuck on the topic of finding meaning for this video. The pair discussed community as a central pillar of meaning and how the community has changed before and after the pandemic.
While we don't expect the U.S. government to default, the uncertainty may heighten market volatility in coming days. Here are answers to some of the questions we're hearing most often.
Why not take a break from working in the world of finance by immersing yourself in the eleven best finance films of all time?
I was a math major in college. My favorite class was Probability and Statistics, taught by Dr. Wolcin. He warned us from the beginning that the final exam was the grandaddy of final exams—that it was really hard, and he would probably end up curving it.
If you’ve been to a high school or college commencement lately, then you know the drill: at some point at least one speaker will urge the graduates to be “agents of change,” suggesting they’d like to see these students make the world a better place through some sort of social activism.
The most famous “Hail Mary” in American football history happened in 1984. On the very last play of the Boston College football game, an undersized quarterback named Doug Flutie threw a bomb into the end zone to teammate Gerald Whelan. Boston College had won the game!
I am struggling with best ways to organize my thoughts and prepare something our advisors will validate and be willing to send.
The Fed failed to recognize the danger of its loose monetary policy in 2021. We are seeing its pernicious effect, as the money supply and velocity combined to inflict non-transitory inflation.
We must understand our clients’ purposes and how they fit together in their lives. We need to take the initiative when rebalancing is in order.
Many investors view real estate as an attractive long-term investment opportunity that plays an important role in portfolio diversification. With that in mind, Columbia Threadneedle Investments recently announced the expansion of its exchange-traded fund offerings with the launch of the Columbia Research Enhanced Real Estate ETF (Ticker: CRED). The fund offers investors and allocators an accessible, research-driven way to gain exposure to the real estate asset class. REITS have a history of low correlations and attractive long-term returns and have a strong historical performance record in high inflation. According to a recent Columbia Threadneedle survey, 93% of financial advisors plan to maintain or increase their real estate allocations over the next 12 to 24 months.
Social Security has always been born from political rather than financial necessity. The initial retirement age was not based on life expectancy but rather on the political and social realities of the time.
We propose a golf-inspired advisor assessment framework with a scorecard, fairway average and handicap as performance measures to quantitatively assess an advisors’ investment performance.
No piece of technology is more crucial than the microchip. Its supply was central to the cause of the post-COVID-19 inflation, and the stability of the U.S.-China relationship hinges on its manufacture.
We often talk about technology’s influence on the economy. After the Strategic Investment Conference, though, I’ve decided that isn’t strong enough. It’s more correct to say technology is the economy.
Factor investing has seen increased popularity in the US. Investors may also want to consider increasing their opportunity set by considering factors abroad.
Advisors are looking ahead to the policy and tax changes impacting their high-net-worth clients. Those include changes stemming from the passage of Secure 2.0 Act.
Despite economic uncertainty, we see compelling value in high-quality, liquid assets that we view as more resilient in the face of a potential recession.
The paradox that this marriage potential created at the college was that the odds are good, but the goods are odd. This is the statement that can be made for common stock investing today.
The future of money is uncertain, and speculation about what comes next is all over the place. The Federal Reserve note "dollar" is the world's reserve currency, but its seat on that throne is no longer secure.
Equita Financial Network is helping women build independent financial advisory firms efficiently with tangible, meaningful support.
Our older advisors (four of them in their 60s) are not comfortable bringing the younger team members into their client meetings.
What if I told you that future returns could approach zero? Such seems hard to believe, considering young investors piling back into the markets since the beginning of the year
Household debt increased by $148 billion (0.9%) to $17.05 trillion in Q1 2023. Mortgage balances climbed the highest to $12.04 trillion while auto loan and student loan balances increased to $1.56 trillion and $1.60 trillion, respectively. Credit card balances remained flat at $986 billion.
Technological progress in the last two centuries, and especially in the recent past, has been nothing short of amazing. So why are we so unhappy? Why aren’t we all rich?
The economy co-exists and interacts with broader society, including government. Public policies—and the political processes that determine them—can change the economy in deep and lasting ways. We may not like them, but we can’t ignore them.
This week’s inflation numbers were mostly positive and benign for the U.S. economy as well as for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and confirms our view that, at least for now, the Fed is done increasing interest rates for this monetary tightening cycle.
Depending on your financial situation, you may qualify for a subsidized loan or an unsubsidized loan. Here’s the breakdown of subsidized and unsubsidized loans, along with how to get each of them.
Saving for college can be daunting. Many parents don’t know how prepared they will be for college costs in the future. Parents face the question of how much to save and which funding vehicles to use.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Cboe's new 1-Day Volatility Index, launched on April 24, and was built to measure the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next day of trading. VIX1D is a response to a surge in the use of extremely short-dated options.
On May 3, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court heard arguments on whether Massachusetts citizens will get a state-level fiduciary rule. The Fiduciary Institute submitted an amicus brief that said, emphatically, “Yes!” This is why.
When March’s bank failures ignited a historic bond rally, few, if any, made more money than Josh Barrickman. His army of funds gained roughly $26 billion, the equivalent of more than $1 billion in paper profits every single trading session.
I’m tired of working for someone who is always angry. Nothing we do is good enough.
Here’s why I started the Externship and why it matters.
Investments in a selection of private markets – also known as “alternatives” – reduced the volatility of portfolios in 2022.
If there was a message the Federal Reserve (Fed) wanted to make clear after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 3, it was that it reserves the right to remain hawkish.
If you act quickly, you can prevent your mistake from ruining your credit score and jeopardizing your financial future.
Japan’s business and government leaders have undertaken efforts to revitalize the country’s economy. Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, discusses some of these positive developments.
The federal Pell grant provides financial assistance to low-income students. Since it’s a grant instead of a loan, it’s essentially free money that students can use to cover their college costs.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon made a bold call on Monday: his firm’s rescue of First Republic Bank ended the initial phase of the turmoil engulfing banks.
Whether you are a potential borrower or just trying to understand the modern economy, student loans are essential to understand.
The odds of a “hard” recession are 99%, according to David Rosenberg, and it will start in the second quarter. Indeed, he said, it may have already started.
It is frustrating for us to try and add to our great team when there are so few “good” people in the market from which to choose.
Lending standards are a lot like carbon monoxide since they operate in the back ground. When the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOOS) showed that banks significantly increased lending standards in the third quarter, no one on Wall Street noticed.
What would you do with a million-dollar windfall?
Investors who base their beliefs about the distribution of possible stock returns on historical data from their home country underestimate the probability of experiencing a significant crash.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s plan to link spending cuts to an increase in the US debt limit would result in fewer teachers and more expensive college educations, the Biden administration warned...
There have been glimmers of hope in 2023 that the inflation fixation of 2022 was a transitory phenomenon. In particular, the market has begun to more closely monitor jobs market data releases to try to spot signs of a labor market and wage slowdown.
Key Takeaways
The current Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) tightening cycle is approaching an end. This has been one of the most forceful as well as the fastest tightening cycle in history. However, because the federal funds rate was well below the neutral federal funds rate, the time it has been above that neutral level has not been that long.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey will give us more information on US consumers’ inflation expectations. The survey respondents’ inflation expectations, as other analysts have pointed out, are highly correlated with gasoline prices, which rose in March by 3.7%.
My grandmother always had something witty or wise to share. One of her favorites had me imagining vivid pictures of pounds of medicine in bottles and spoonfuls of colorful liquids.
“Be careful in the equity markets,” warned Larry Summers. The bond market is predicting a recession but, he said, the equity market has not priced that in.
We hope you enjoy the latest NewsLetter from Harold Evensky.
The fiercest adversary of investing based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) is Aswath Damodaran. ESG is a failure, its advocates are to blame, and the concept should be retired, according to Damodaran.
While we cannot manufacture more time, there are some things to consider that will ease the frenetic rush to get things done. In this week’s article, I’ll share some best practices.
The vast “cash hoard of 2023” has the bullish media salivating about what it means for the future of equities. That cash hoard in money market funds now exceeds $5.2 trillion.
529/College Planning
Baby Boomer Employment Across Time
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?
Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?
The Year 2030: My Conversation with ChatRET Clients
I wrote this article in 2030 after I interviewed several retirees whose income plans were designed by ChatRET.
Odds of a Hard Landing Are Increasing
The Fed’s refusal to pause rates through the first five months of 2023 raises the odds of a hard landing. The magnitude of the yield-curve inversion has increased the risk inherent in the US banking and financial systems. The impending recession is unnecessary and self-inflicted.
Sinology On-the-Ground in China
Andy Rothman provides a first-hand perspective from his first trip to Shanghai and Beijing since the start of COVID in 2019.
U.S. Workforce Analysis: May 2023 Update
I've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 339K.
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a close look at May's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.6% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 16.4% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Train Dogs – Not Employees
Let’s change the language for how we help employees make behavioral shifts.
Debt Ceiling: Common Sense Prevailed
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Asset Managers, Industry Aggressively Snap Up Silver
Top Silver Mining CEO: "On the demand side, it’s pretty phenomenal…"
Bond Bulls Bet Fed Is Right in Anticipating Low Rates to Return
Two years after inflation surged, the Federal Reserve has made limited progress tamping it down. A coterie of investors in the bond market is betting not only that policymakers will win, but that they’re right in anticipating the era of low long-term interest rates will return.
Congress Clears Debt Deal, Averting Default
The measure ends weeks of negotiation and unease about a potentially catastrophic government default.
The Case for Non-U.S. Allocations
At of the start of this year, Rick Pitcairn took on a new position as the chief global strategist at Pitcairn, a 100-year-old multi-family office with $7bn in client assets. In this position, he is focusing on macro-economic trends and is searching for new global initiatives that will add to the firm’s growth.
Rick recently journeyed to India where he met with some of the wealthiest local families to discuss multi-generational wealth transfer. He saw that people all around the world want the same things, including economic security and a safe environment to raise their children. But the investing and business environments differ significantly. Rick knows that U.S. investors have a home bias, but he saw substantial economic growth is happening outside our borders. Rick is here to discuss if an international allocation appropriate or too risky.
Is Jeremy Siegel Right About Stocks for the Long Run?
The empirical evidence supports Seigel’s general assertion that stocks beat inflation in the long run. But the inflation-hedging benefits of stocks aren’t perfect.
The Slippery Slope to Unethical Financial Choices
Financial decisions that are not based on personal integrity are risky in many ways. Making sound, ethical financial choices – and teaching our children to do the same – is essential for financial wellbeing.
Which Fund to Choose for Exposure to the Reinsurance Risk Premium
I will analyze the pros and cons of three funds to access the reinsurance market.
What are 529 Plan Qualified Expenses?
While tuition is the main qualified expense you think of when you get a 529, there are other tangential education expenses that will also qualify.
The US Debt Ceiling Debacle Is Not Over
The latest last-minute deal to raise the US debt limit does not solve the underlying political problem. On the contrary, with the country on track for a Biden-Trump rematch next year – a contest that Trump just might win – the truce is likely to be short-lived.
A Primer on 529 Plan Benefits
529 plan benefits abound no matter which type of plan you choose. Read on to get a full understanding of what 529 plans can do for you.
Looking Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June 2023
After a continued rally in April, markets largely pulled back in May. Exceptions here were the Nasdaq, which rose, and the S&P 500, which was essentially flat.
America and China Are on a Collision Course
The G7 countries may have set out to deter China without escalating the new cold war, but the perception in Beijing suggests that they failed to thread the needle at their recent summit in Hiroshima.
The Return of El Niño
Humanity is sitting on a time bomb.
Why the Fed Is Hard to Predict
The US Federal Reserve is adrift, and it has only itself to blame. Regardless of whether its policy-setting committee announces another interest-rate hike in June, its top priority now should be to address the structural weaknesses that led it astray in the first place.
The Far-Reaching Effects of Commercial Real Estate’s Downward Spiral
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
The Risk of Playing It Safe
Investors have been loading up on T-bills and money market funds this year, but according to our Total Return team, that is not a sustainable strategy as it exposes investors to both reinvestment risk and inflation while creating an asset/liability mismatch.
How to Incorporate Behavioral Factors into Planning Discussions
Without understanding people – how they think and act, and what they believe – you can’t effectively help them, no matter how good you are at planning or asset allocation.
Total Concentration: Mega Caps Reign
The concentration of gains up the cap spectrum isn't itself a precursor to weakness; it's the lack of participation from the "average stock" that warrants some caution.
Hedge Funds Are Deploying ChatGPT to Handle All the Grunt Work
The latest artificial intelligence hype is powering a massive surge in the stock market on bets that a new era of innovation is nigh.
The Resilience of the U.S. Economy: It’s All About Employment, and the Consumer
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Size, Value and Factor Exposures Improve Retirement Outcomes
Some of the most common questions clients ask advisors revolve around retirement:
New research from Dimensional addresses these questions. The study found that investors who tilt towards size, value, and profitability in their equity allocation are likely to enter retirement with significantly more assets, sustain their retirement spending longer, and to leave behind larger bequests than with a standard, broad-market-index portfolio. Given the popularity of broad market indexing, the findings have implications for advisors. Joining us to talk about the research is Mathieu Pellerin.
Consumer Confidence Slips to Six Month Low
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index ® slipped to 102.3 in May from April's upwardly revised reading of 103.7. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 99.0 forecast. The latest figure is the index's lowest reading in the past six months.
Looming Debt Ceiling Deal to Leave Dollar Locked in Downtrend
As the debt ceiling fight in Washington heads down to the wire with the risk of a technical default looming, investors are growing nervous.
VettaFi Viewpoints: Nadig & Reverend Tuck on Community
VettaFi’s financial futurist Dave Nadig spoke at length with Reverend Michael Tuck on the topic of finding meaning for this video. The pair discussed community as a central pillar of meaning and how the community has changed before and after the pandemic.
Debt Ceiling Standoff: What Investors Should Know
While we don't expect the U.S. government to default, the uncertainty may heighten market volatility in coming days. Here are answers to some of the questions we're hearing most often.
The 11 Best Finance Films to Watch This Memorial Day Weekend
Why not take a break from working in the world of finance by immersing yourself in the eleven best finance films of all time?
Thinking in Probabilities
I was a math major in college. My favorite class was Probability and Statistics, taught by Dr. Wolcin. He warned us from the beginning that the final exam was the grandaddy of final exams—that it was really hard, and he would probably end up curving it.
Agents of Change?
If you’ve been to a high school or college commencement lately, then you know the drill: at some point at least one speaker will urge the graduates to be “agents of change,” suggesting they’d like to see these students make the world a better place through some sort of social activism.
Tech Stock Hail Mary
The most famous “Hail Mary” in American football history happened in 1984. On the very last play of the Boston College football game, an undersized quarterback named Doug Flutie threw a bomb into the end zone to teammate Gerald Whelan. Boston College had won the game!
How to Improve Client Communications
I am struggling with best ways to organize my thoughts and prepare something our advisors will validate and be willing to send.
The Fed Was Dead Wrong
The Fed failed to recognize the danger of its loose monetary policy in 2021. We are seeing its pernicious effect, as the money supply and velocity combined to inflict non-transitory inflation.
Rebalancing Your Clients’ “Purpose Portfolio”
We must understand our clients’ purposes and how they fit together in their lives. We need to take the initiative when rebalancing is in order.
A New, Low-Cost REIT ETF
Many investors view real estate as an attractive long-term investment opportunity that plays an important role in portfolio diversification. With that in mind, Columbia Threadneedle Investments recently announced the expansion of its exchange-traded fund offerings with the launch of the Columbia Research Enhanced Real Estate ETF (Ticker: CRED). The fund offers investors and allocators an accessible, research-driven way to gain exposure to the real estate asset class. REITS have a history of low correlations and attractive long-term returns and have a strong historical performance record in high inflation. According to a recent Columbia Threadneedle survey, 93% of financial advisors plan to maintain or increase their real estate allocations over the next 12 to 24 months.
Social Security is Not a Retirement Safety Net
Social Security has always been born from political rather than financial necessity. The initial retirement age was not based on life expectancy but rather on the political and social realities of the time.
In Golf and Investing, Handicaps Matter
We propose a golf-inspired advisor assessment framework with a scorecard, fairway average and handicap as performance measures to quantitatively assess an advisors’ investment performance.
Our Tenuous – and Crucial – Microchip Dependency
No piece of technology is more crucial than the microchip. Its supply was central to the cause of the post-COVID-19 inflation, and the stability of the U.S.-China relationship hinges on its manufacture.
Real Money Supply and The Real Price of Petroleum, Examined
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Technology Turning
We often talk about technology’s influence on the economy. After the Strategic Investment Conference, though, I’ve decided that isn’t strong enough. It’s more correct to say technology is the economy.
International Style
Factor investing has seen increased popularity in the US. Investors may also want to consider increasing their opportunity set by considering factors abroad.
Policy and Tax Changes Impacting HNW Clients in 2023
Advisors are looking ahead to the policy and tax changes impacting their high-net-worth clients. Those include changes stemming from the passage of Secure 2.0 Act.
Income Fund Update: Building Resilience and Harnessing Yield in High Quality Assets
Despite economic uncertainty, we see compelling value in high-quality, liquid assets that we view as more resilient in the face of a potential recession.
Good Odds and Odd Goods
The paradox that this marriage potential created at the college was that the odds are good, but the goods are odd. This is the statement that can be made for common stock investing today.
Holding Gold Is Like Holding a Wildcard
The future of money is uncertain, and speculation about what comes next is all over the place. The Federal Reserve note "dollar" is the world's reserve currency, but its seat on that throne is no longer secure.
Less Talk, More Action to Support Female Advisors
Equita Financial Network is helping women build independent financial advisory firms efficiently with tangible, meaningful support.
My Older Advisors Don’t “Get” the Younger Generation
Our older advisors (four of them in their 60s) are not comfortable bringing the younger team members into their client meetings.
Why Future Returns Could Approach Zero
What if I told you that future returns could approach zero? Such seems hard to believe, considering young investors piling back into the markets since the beginning of the year
Household Debt Rises to $17.05 Trillion Amidst Higher Mortgage, Auto, and Student Loan Balances
Household debt increased by $148 billion (0.9%) to $17.05 trillion in Q1 2023. Mortgage balances climbed the highest to $12.04 trillion while auto loan and student loan balances increased to $1.56 trillion and $1.60 trillion, respectively. Credit card balances remained flat at $986 billion.
The Folly of Trying to Control Technology
Technological progress in the last two centuries, and especially in the recent past, has been nothing short of amazing. So why are we so unhappy? Why aren’t we all rich?
Plan for Paralysis
The economy co-exists and interacts with broader society, including government. Public policies—and the political processes that determine them—can change the economy in deep and lasting ways. We may not like them, but we can’t ignore them.
Inflation Continued its Disinflationary Path in April...
This week’s inflation numbers were mostly positive and benign for the U.S. economy as well as for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and confirms our view that, at least for now, the Fed is done increasing interest rates for this monetary tightening cycle.
A Guide to Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans
Depending on your financial situation, you may qualify for a subsidized loan or an unsubsidized loan. Here’s the breakdown of subsidized and unsubsidized loans, along with how to get each of them.
College Funding Strategies
Saving for college can be daunting. Many parents don’t know how prepared they will be for college costs in the future. Parents face the question of how much to save and which funding vehicles to use.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: April 2023
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Need For Speed: How Cboe's New Volatility Index is Built to Track Next-Day Expectations
The Cboe's new 1-Day Volatility Index, launched on April 24, and was built to measure the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next day of trading. VIX1D is a response to a surge in the use of extremely short-dated options.
The Battle for Fiduciary Standards in Massachusetts
On May 3, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court heard arguments on whether Massachusetts citizens will get a state-level fiduciary rule. The Fiduciary Institute submitted an amicus brief that said, emphatically, “Yes!” This is why.
Vanguard’s Trillion-Dollar Man Leads a Fixed-Income Revolution
When March’s bank failures ignited a historic bond rally, few, if any, made more money than Josh Barrickman. His army of funds gained roughly $26 billion, the equivalent of more than $1 billion in paper profits every single trading session.
My Boss is Horrible and I’m Losing Hope
I’m tired of working for someone who is always angry. Nothing we do is good enough.
The Future of the Externship Program
Here’s why I started the Externship and why it matters.
Alternative Investments for Volatile Markets
Investments in a selection of private markets – also known as “alternatives” – reduced the volatility of portfolios in 2022.
The Federal Reserve... Reserves the Right to Remain Hawkish
If there was a message the Federal Reserve (Fed) wanted to make clear after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 3, it was that it reserves the right to remain hawkish.
What to Do If You Miss a Student Loan Payment
If you act quickly, you can prevent your mistake from ruining your credit score and jeopardizing your financial future.
Is Japan springing into bloom?
Japan’s business and government leaders have undertaken efforts to revitalize the country’s economy. Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, discusses some of these positive developments.
All About the Federal Pell Grant
The federal Pell grant provides financial assistance to low-income students. Since it’s a grant instead of a loan, it’s essentially free money that students can use to cover their college costs.
Wall Street Is Betting the Regional Bank Crisis Isn’t Over Yet
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon made a bold call on Monday: his firm’s rescue of First Republic Bank ended the initial phase of the turmoil engulfing banks.
A Guide to Student Loans: How Do They Work?
Whether you are a potential borrower or just trying to understand the modern economy, student loans are essential to understand.
David Rosenberg – A Near-Certain Recession in Q2
The odds of a “hard” recession are 99%, according to David Rosenberg, and it will start in the second quarter. Indeed, he said, it may have already started.
You Control More in the Hiring Process Than You Think
It is frustrating for us to try and add to our great team when there are so few “good” people in the market from which to choose.
Economic Carbon Monoxide
Lending standards are a lot like carbon monoxide since they operate in the back ground. When the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOOS) showed that banks significantly increased lending standards in the third quarter, no one on Wall Street noticed.
How Americans Spend Their Lottery Winnings
What would you do with a million-dollar windfall?
Do U.S. Investors Underestimate Risk?
Investors who base their beliefs about the distribution of possible stock returns on historical data from their home country underestimate the probability of experiencing a significant crash.
McCarthy’s Debt-Limit Plan Would Slash Education, Biden Administration Says
Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s plan to link spending cuts to an increase in the US debt limit would result in fewer teachers and more expensive college educations, the Biden administration warned...
Services Inflation is Stuck
There have been glimmers of hope in 2023 that the inflation fixation of 2022 was a transitory phenomenon. In particular, the market has begun to more closely monitor jobs market data releases to try to spot signs of a labor market and wage slowdown.
Analyzing Who Has the Greatest Potential to Move Markets
Key Takeaways
The End of the Tightening Cycle Is in Sight
The current Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) tightening cycle is approaching an end. This has been one of the most forceful as well as the fastest tightening cycle in history. However, because the federal funds rate was well below the neutral federal funds rate, the time it has been above that neutral level has not been that long.
Will Gas Prices Foreshadow Higher Inflation Expectations?
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey will give us more information on US consumers’ inflation expectations. The survey respondents’ inflation expectations, as other analysts have pointed out, are highly correlated with gasoline prices, which rose in March by 3.7%.
Why Your Grandmother Was Right
My grandmother always had something witty or wise to share. One of her favorites had me imagining vivid pictures of pounds of medicine in bottles and spoonfuls of colorful liquids.
Larry Summers – Get out of U.S. Equities
“Be careful in the equity markets,” warned Larry Summers. The bond market is predicting a recession but, he said, the equity market has not priced that in.
NewsLetter - April 2023
We hope you enjoy the latest NewsLetter from Harold Evensky.
Aswath Damodaran: It’s Time to Retire the ESG Concept
The fiercest adversary of investing based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) is Aswath Damodaran. ESG is a failure, its advocates are to blame, and the concept should be retired, according to Damodaran.
Managing Time When You Have No Time
While we cannot manufacture more time, there are some things to consider that will ease the frenetic rush to get things done. In this week’s article, I’ll share some best practices.
The Cash Hoard Of 2023 (And The Sideline Money Myth)
The vast “cash hoard of 2023” has the bullish media salivating about what it means for the future of equities. That cash hoard in money market funds now exceeds $5.2 trillion.