Join NEOS Investments, an award-winning ETF issuer, for an educational discussion designed to help financial professionals better understand the evolving options-based ETF landscape and the key considerations when evaluating income-oriented solutions for client portfolios.
In this webcast, we’ll explore how Buffer ETFs can complement traditional fixed-income allocations and help strengthen the defensive side of a portfolio.
We understand that you can’t forecast the sequence of returns, but we CAN build a plan that survives a bad one. As Howard Marks puts it, you can’t predict, but you can prepare. These are the rules of engagement once you’ve crossed from saving into spending.
While the majority of advisors, 62%, still use an AUM-based fee model to charge clients, a growing number have said they now charge a retainer fee. In 2023, only 14% of advisors offering financial planning services said their compensation model was an annual retainer, while 38% said the same in the 2026 State of Financial Planning Fees study.
If you only looked at the price of gold in September, you’d be forgiven for believing the bull market had run out of steam. The yellow metal fell 6.3% during the month, and some in the financial press were quick to say it had failed as a safe haven.
How’s the US economy doing in President Donald Trump’s second term? Going by the topline economic statistics, not too bad. Second-quarter gross domestic product was revised higher last week, to a 2.2% annualized rate from a previously reported 1.5%. At 4.2%, the jobless rate is consistent with an economy considered to be at full employment.
Today’s employment report reinforced a trend that has been evident across several labor market indicators: conditions in the goods-producing sector continue to improve after several difficult years, while hiring across the much larger service sector continues to soften.
Nvidia Corp. is on the verge of becoming the first company with a $6 trillion market capitalization as investors rotate back into the artificial-intelligence chipmaker after a disappointing start to the year.
Paramount Skydance Corp. closed its $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. on Tuesday, completing one of the biggest media mergers of all time after engaging in a bruising battle for control with Netflix Inc. and fending off antitrust lawsuits.
Societal angst about AI continues to grow. Whether it’s concern about misalignment or potentially misdirected investment, the AI-may-be-bad narrative is gaining traction. In stark contrast, the AI trade in financial markets was alive and well in September of 2026.
Vigilante movies have always been popular with audiences. From Clint Eastwood (Dirty Harry) to Halle Berry (Catwoman) to Denzel Washington (The Equalizer), characters that take justice into their own hands when systems fail are seen as heroes.
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
Long viewed as an emergency brake for macroeconomic panic, gold is starting to prove itself as much more than a crisis asset.
Executives enter the earnings season with a bit of a swagger. They won't say it out loud, of course, but consider all the headwinds CEOs of companies big and small have faced in the last few years. First, it was imminent recession fears; then it was looming tariffs (followed by the shock of April 2025).
Global equities advanced in the third quarter as market returns broadened away from technology. But AI’s disruptive impact is spreading across sectors and industries—transforming the very nature of investment diversification.
September’s fixed income sell-off marked a watershed moment for muni bond markets, delivering the steepest drawdown since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. As benchmark yields spiked, prices across muni ETFs fell in tandem, and the volatility has not let up. This week, both 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since 2002.
The latest employment report showed that 29,000 jobs were added in September, compared to August's 133,000 gain. This figure was significantly lower than the projected addition of 89,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Five of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through October 5, 2026.
How much one needs for retirement is both a mathematical and emotional equation to solve. For both my clients and myself, enough is never enough because we fear a stock market plunge, inflation, or both (stagflation). But these four practical uses of TIPS provide near certainty of having enough to enjoy the rest of one’s life. Rarely do math and emotion each arrive at the same solution.
Today, TINA logic is less compelling. Risk-free five-year and longer Treasury notes and bonds yield over 5%, and investment-grade corporate bonds yield even more. At the same time, stock valuations sit near record levels, implying weak forward returns. The acronym that best describes today's market is TIGA (there is a good alternative).
Wall Street has spent weeks trying to make peace with the great bond selloff. Friday offered some short-lived relief — along with a warning about the damage from stubbornly high yields across investment strategies of all stripes.
The dollar neared its strongest levels this year as fiscal strains and renewed political uncertainty in Europe boosted its haven appeal, even as its run of gains stoked concerns the rally is becoming overstretched.
Larger asset managers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have been looking to snap up CLO management businesses as they hunt for lucrative fee streams in the $1 trillion US market.
Remember when near-zero interest rates squeezed retirees on fixed incomes and left pensions with huge shortfalls? I suspect they’re happy to see US interest rates returning to normal.
The bond market took center stage through September with inflation, oil supply chains and the Federal Reserve performing as an ensemble.
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” wrote William Shakespeare, who was one of history’s greatest authors but obviously ill-versed in economics. Without lending or borrowing, our modern economic society wouldn’t grow very much, AI or not.
For a quarter of a century, the hyperscalers have been some of the most profitable and technologically innovative businesses ever created. The reason was clear: their marginal cost per additional customer was almost zero. Costs were fixed and scale was effectively unlimited, which meant margins widened as volume grew.
T. Rowe Price has announced the launch of the T. Rowe Price Dynamic Emerging Markets Bond ETF (TDEM) on the Nasdaq today, the company said.
Recent bond market repricing has pushed municipal yields to levels not seen in decades and improved the potential risk-reward profile for fixed income. Here, we examine why municipals stand out, how supportive credit fundamentals shape the opportunity and why investors may benefit from extending maturities to lock in attractive tax-exempt income.
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.
Few investors would naturally put artificial intelligence data centers and US shale oil in the same frame. One is built on advanced semiconductors and software; the other on rock, steel and drilling rigs. But the economic pattern is familiar. A breakthrough changes what is possible, demand outruns supply, attractive profit pools emerge and capital floods in.
The “price of happiness” chart came around again recently, and the number attached to it was as confident as ever. One widely shared version, built from a Remitly analysis, ranked 50 countries. The measure: how close the average wage gets to the income where happiness supposedly “plateaus.”
Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.
This week gave us another glimpse of our AI-powered future. AI personal agents are becoming a thing you need to understand, if not use.
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
Softer U.S. inflation and labor data as well as more cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials shifted the rates outlook this week.
Municipal bond asset managers are finding opportunities in the rout that tore through markets this month, with cheaper valuations and the highest yields in years drawing investors.
In September, Vanguard ETFs overall recorded a mix of steady market performance, some volatility, and significant dividend distributions, with investors pouring substantial capital into its funds.
With Microsoft Corp.’s best quarter for decades in the books, Wall Street is betting the stock can keep rallying as the tech giant’s standing in the artificial intelligence landscape continues to improve.
Tesla Inc. shares have tumbled in 2026, but Wall Street analysts are increasingly reluctant to tell investors to sell.
Chuck Carnevale explains the Rule of 72 and shows how earnings growth can compound over time. Using FAST Graphs and real stock examples, he explores how growth and valuation affect long-term returns.
Fixed-income investors are being paid more to take risk than they have been in years, but not all opportunities are created equal. Higher yield levels, heightened volatility and growing differences across countries, sectors, industries and issuers are expanding the opportunity set. Dispersion is the raw material from which active returns are generated. Below are four ways investors can capitalize on it.
Midterm elections are increasingly taking over the headlines, and that includes coverage of markets. While inflation, rates, and geopolitics probably have more outright impact on portfolios, investors and market watchers still look to midterm elections as a major event.
Franklin Equity’s Grant Bowers discusses why a higher cost of capital does not change the capital expenditure outlook.
The sell-off in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields has continued pretty much in an unabated fashion In fact, multi-year high watermarks are being achieved throughout the fixed coupon maturity curve. The most widely followed development was the UST 10-year yield rising to its highest level since 2007.
Markets await a possible Fed rate hike as Congress weighs Trump's dividend proposal, a limited fall session, and a Senate vote on crypto regulation.
Yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PCE print finally gave the bond market a breather, pulling Treasury yields down from their brief 5.3% peak. For financial advisors, this recent whiplash brings fixed income duration conversations back to center stage — specifically, balancing the hunt for long-term yield with the safety of ultra-short cash alternatives.
You can’t spot it on the field or in the stadium. You can’t correct it in training. Or cure it with a dose from the team doctor. But it’s a malady an overwhelming number of professional athletes will face.
AI could be a transformative force for the Fed’s policy framework. Elevated investment demand – now coupled with positive wealth effects that are necessitating tighter financial conditions – could eventually give way to a positive supply impact from higher productivity growth that could allow for easier financial conditions without inflationary implications.
Munis can fund local power, grid, water and wastewater infrastructure; most AI campus capital will be financed in non-municipal markets.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of September 2026, the weekly average stood at 5.08%, the highest level since July 2007.
Explore how muni bond ETFs and targeted state funds can provide tax-efficient yields and strategic flexibility heading into 2027.
Join the experts at Allspring for an educational webcast exploring how an ultra-short, active municipal bond strategy can navigate the unique challenges of today’s market.
All eyes are on the macro economy. A significant market correction in late July triggered the abrupt collapse of Situational Awareness, L.P., a $45 billion, highly leveraged, AI-focused hedge fund. The collapse forced selling of many technology hardware stocks that were winners in the first half of 2026.
Treasuries might look cheap against stocks, GDP and the global cycle, but on their own historical terms they have more to fall before they become oversold and ready for a durable bounce.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is proposing a series of moves to help expand retail investor access to private markets, so more individuals can access private equity, early-stage startups and other assets.
Last week the S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent and the NASDAQ gained 2.1 percent, hitting a fresh record close earlier in the week, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.8 percent. The bigger story, however, was in rates. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed through 5.2 percent, its highest level since June 2006, and the two-year briefly topped 4.9 percent, its highest in over two years.
Assessing the wall of worry. Here, we assess the market's growing wall of worry, explain why these worries warrant attention, and justify our continued constructive intermediate-to-long-term stock market outlook.
Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
From social media and AI tools to financial professionals and workplace resources, defined contribution (DC) plan participants are drawing retirement insights from an expanding portfolio of sources, according to our latest survey. But more content doesn’t necessarily mean better outcomes. We think plan sponsors are well positioned to help participants cut through the noise.
Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.
Yields have pushed higher with some points on the curve reaching yield levels not seen since the mid-2000s. While it is nearly impossible to pinpoint a specific catalyst for any move in the financial markets, below are a few of the factors that have helped push interest rates higher.
Higher-for-longer interest rates are forcing buyout firms to face facts. Struggling since 2023 to sell companies purchased in the long decade of ultra-cheap debt before the Covid pandemic, they’ve tried to placate investors with clever financial engineering to help keep some money turning over.
Across the world, nations are dealing with rising costs from energy and debt service. These costs are compounding as time goes on.
It’s a complicated economic environment to retire in, with high costs and significant geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Still, people want and often may need to retire. However, thanks to innovation in the asset management world, investors have an increasing array of options.
Given that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates earlier in September, inflation data that was already crucial has taken on a new meaning. These reports could now serve as a barometer for what is to come from the central bank.
The financial industry is being pulled between two powerful forces: bottom-up financial technology is enabling seamless integration, while top-down geoeconomic statecraft is promoting fragmentation. So much for the conventional wisdom that finance will simply become smoother, cheaper, and more globalized over time.
The bond market has become the central story for investors. The remarkable development over the past several weeks is not rising inflation expectations but rising real interest rates. Real rates have increased roughly 40 basis points in just three weeks, one of the sharpest moves I can remember over such a short period. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations have actually edged slightly lower.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.23% in August and was up 4.25% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.08% month-over-month and up 0.80% year-over-year.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell significantly more than expected in September, falling 6.7 points to 81.9. The index was far below the forecast of 89.2.
Compared to a decade ago, midstream operators boast improved fundamentals, lower leverage, and robust free cash flow generation. Coupled with surging natural gas demand and a constructive production outlook in response to global geopolitical shifts, these fee-based business models offer compelling yields and a remarkably defensive posture.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3% and core CPI at 2.5%.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3% year-over-year in August. This marks no change from July's reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.2%.
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
With a process and an approach in place, you should move toward a final solution more easily. All you can do is set it up to be as open and fair as possible, with someone holding the absolute final say once the decision is made.
Finance leaders can use agentic AI to boost budget visibility, develop more accurate forecasts efficiently, and find insights in data that would typically require extensive manual effort. With the right platform and a careful approach to governance, finance functions can start reaping the benefits of augmentation within months.
Ken Griffin is donating $3 billion to Carnegie Mellon University, most of it to establish a new campus in Miami, in the largest single gift committed to a US university.
Stock-market risks are everywhere. But you’d be hard pressed to tell anything was wrong by looking at the surface of major US equity gauges.
Banks in the US have plenty to celebrate these days, from record profits and higher stock prices to a strong economy and easier regulation. One thing they don’t need is an added discount on their deposit insurance — a crucial buffer that should be reinforced when times are good.
Has the stock market bubble quietly burst already? Even though the S&P 500 Index has mostly treaded water for the past four months, Wall Street analysts have continued to boost their earnings estimates.
Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Michigan, has a simple pitch to voters. Imagine, he says, a health-insurance plan with “no premium, no copay, no deductible — just healthcare when you need it.” El-Sayed and other proponents call the idea Medicare for All.
Real GDP rose 2.2% in Q2 for the third estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which was a 0.7% increase from the previous Q2 advance and second estimates.
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
Financial markets continue to grapple with a fundamental question: If inflation remains above target after years of restrictive monetary policy, is interest-rate policy still aimed at the right problem?
In this video The Most Powerful Growth Stock, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and known as “Mr. Valuation,” examines NVIDIA through the lens of growth, valuation, financial strength, and long-term return potential. He explains why growth investing is still value investing when a company’s future earnings justify the price being paid.
There is more than one reason the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23% today. Most importantly, the Fed has stopped anchoring interest rates at artificially low levels. Fear of inflation is likely another. However, both of those are related to the massive government debt the US has created.
I’m writing this week from London, the start of a four-country tour of Europe to see clients. I typically don’t have a lot of free time while on these journeys, but I did sneak away on the weekend for an economics field trip.
AI-related borrowers have accounted for nearly a quarter of nonfinancial U.S. dollar (USD) supply year-to-date, yet spreads for non-AI issuers have not widened meaningfully. Instead, hyperscaler spreads have widened, suggesting the market is absorbing the AI supply shock at its source.
On September 23, Invesco launched the Invesco Nasdaq International Innovators 100 ETF (QQI), a fund that seeks to track the performance of the Nasdaq International Innovators 100 Index.
Income
Navigate the Evolving Landscape of Options-Based Income ETFs
Join NEOS Investments, an award-winning ETF issuer, for an educational discussion designed to help financial professionals better understand the evolving options-based ETF landscape and the key considerations when evaluating income-oriented solutions for client portfolios.
Rethinking the Traditional 60/40 with Buffer ETFs
In this webcast, we’ll explore how Buffer ETFs can complement traditional fixed-income allocations and help strengthen the defensive side of a portfolio.
Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements
We understand that you can’t forecast the sequence of returns, but we CAN build a plan that survives a bad one. As Howard Marks puts it, you can’t predict, but you can prepare. These are the rules of engagement once you’ve crossed from saving into spending.
More Advisors Choosing Annual Retainers as Industry Focuses on Planning
While the majority of advisors, 62%, still use an AUM-based fee model to charge clients, a growing number have said they now charge a retainer fee. In 2023, only 14% of advisors offering financial planning services said their compensation model was an annual retainer, while 38% said the same in the 2026 State of Financial Planning Fees study.
Gold Stumbled in September, but Gold Miners Beat Every Sector in the S&P 500
If you only looked at the price of gold in September, you’d be forgiven for believing the bull market had run out of steam. The yellow metal fell 6.3% during the month, and some in the financial press were quick to say it had failed as a safe haven.
There's Good News About Incomes. No One Seems to Believe It
How’s the US economy doing in President Donald Trump’s second term? Going by the topline economic statistics, not too bad. Second-quarter gross domestic product was revised higher last week, to a 2.2% annualized rate from a previously reported 1.5%. At 4.2%, the jobless rate is consistent with an economy considered to be at full employment.
A Small, Temporary Win for the Doves, Us Included
Today’s employment report reinforced a trend that has been evident across several labor market indicators: conditions in the goods-producing sector continue to improve after several difficult years, while hiring across the much larger service sector continues to soften.
Nvidia Soars Near $6 Trillion Market Cap With Stock Back at High
Nvidia Corp. is on the verge of becoming the first company with a $6 trillion market capitalization as investors rotate back into the artificial-intelligence chipmaker after a disappointing start to the year.
Paramount Closes Warner Merger in Historic Hollywood Deal
Paramount Skydance Corp. closed its $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. on Tuesday, completing one of the biggest media mergers of all time after engaging in a bruising battle for control with Netflix Inc. and fending off antitrust lawsuits.
QuantStreet October 2026 Letter: Interest Rate Worries
Societal angst about AI continues to grow. Whether it’s concern about misalignment or potentially misdirected investment, the AI-may-be-bad narrative is gaining traction. In stark contrast, the AI trade in financial markets was alive and well in September of 2026.
The Return of the Bond Vigilantes
Vigilante movies have always been popular with audiences. From Clint Eastwood (Dirty Harry) to Halle Berry (Catwoman) to Denzel Washington (The Equalizer), characters that take justice into their own hands when systems fail are seen as heroes.
Will the Real Yield Please Stand Up?!
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
The Case for Gold as an ‘All-Weather’ Investment
Long viewed as an emergency brake for macroeconomic panic, gold is starting to prove itself as much more than a crisis asset.
How AI, the Midterms, and Consumer Shifts Shape the Outlook
Executives enter the earnings season with a bit of a swagger. They won't say it out loud, of course, but consider all the headwinds CEOs of companies big and small have faced in the last few years. First, it was imminent recession fears; then it was looming tariffs (followed by the shock of April 2025).
AI, Higher Rates Raise the Bar for Diversification
Global equities advanced in the third quarter as market returns broadened away from technology. But AI’s disruptive impact is spreading across sectors and industries—transforming the very nature of investment diversification.
Muni Bond ETFs: Unlocking Robust Returns
September’s fixed income sell-off marked a watershed moment for muni bond markets, delivering the steepest drawdown since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. As benchmark yields spiked, prices across muni ETFs fell in tandem, and the volatility has not let up. This week, both 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since 2002.
Employment Report: 29K Jobs Added in September, Worse Than Expected
The latest employment report showed that 29,000 jobs were added in September, compared to August's 133,000 gain. This figure was significantly lower than the projected addition of 89,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%.
World Markets Watchlist: October 5, 2026
Five of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through October 5, 2026.
4 Practical Uses of TIPS in the Portfolio
How much one needs for retirement is both a mathematical and emotional equation to solve. For both my clients and myself, enough is never enough because we fear a stock market plunge, inflation, or both (stagflation). But these four practical uses of TIPS provide near certainty of having enough to enjoy the rest of one’s life. Rarely do math and emotion each arrive at the same solution.
From TINA To TIGA: Diversification Pays Again
Today, TINA logic is less compelling. Risk-free five-year and longer Treasury notes and bonds yield over 5%, and investment-grade corporate bonds yield even more. At the same time, stock valuations sit near record levels, implying weak forward returns. The acronym that best describes today's market is TIGA (there is a good alternative).
Wall Street Tries to Live With 5% Yields as Market Cracks Grow
Wall Street has spent weeks trying to make peace with the great bond selloff. Friday offered some short-lived relief — along with a warning about the damage from stubbornly high yields across investment strategies of all stripes.
Dollar Nears Strongest Level This Year as Cracks Emerge in Rally
The dollar neared its strongest levels this year as fiscal strains and renewed political uncertainty in Europe boosted its haven appeal, even as its run of gains stoked concerns the rally is becoming overstretched.
Goldman’s Bid for CLO Manager Highlights Wall Street’s Fee Hunt
Larger asset managers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have been looking to snap up CLO management businesses as they hunt for lucrative fee streams in the $1 trillion US market.
The Bond Market’s Balancing Act Is Perfectly Normal
Remember when near-zero interest rates squeezed retirees on fixed incomes and left pensions with huge shortfalls? I suspect they’re happy to see US interest rates returning to normal.
September Review: Bond Market in Focus as Treasury Yields Climb
The bond market took center stage through September with inflation, oil supply chains and the Federal Reserve performing as an ensemble.
Don’t Own Bonds and be Cautious With Stocks
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” wrote William Shakespeare, who was one of history’s greatest authors but obviously ill-versed in economics. Without lending or borrowing, our modern economic society wouldn’t grow very much, AI or not.
Paying Software Prices for Refinery Economics
For a quarter of a century, the hyperscalers have been some of the most profitable and technologically innovative businesses ever created. The reason was clear: their marginal cost per additional customer was almost zero. Costs were fixed and scale was effectively unlimited, which meant margins widened as volume grew.
T. Rowe Price Launches Active Emerging Markets Bond ETF
T. Rowe Price has announced the launch of the T. Rowe Price Dynamic Emerging Markets Bond ETF (TDEM) on the Nasdaq today, the company said.
A Historic Opportunity in Municipals
Recent bond market repricing has pushed municipal yields to levels not seen in decades and improved the potential risk-reward profile for fixed income. Here, we examine why municipals stand out, how supportive credit fundamentals shape the opportunity and why investors may benefit from extending maturities to lock in attractive tax-exempt income.
Recalibrating Rates, Not Tightening Policy
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.
Chips and Frack: How the AI Boom Rhymes with the US Shale Cycle
Few investors would naturally put artificial intelligence data centers and US shale oil in the same frame. One is built on advanced semiconductors and software; the other on rock, steel and drilling rigs. But the economic pattern is familiar. A breakthrough changes what is possible, demand outruns supply, attractive profit pools emerge and capital floods in.
Price Of Happiness: Missing The Things That Matter
The “price of happiness” chart came around again recently, and the number attached to it was as confident as ever. One widely shared version, built from a Remitly analysis, ranked 50 countries. The measure: how close the average wage gets to the income where happiness supposedly “plateaus.”
Economic Desiderata
Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.
A Different Kind of Bank Run?
This week gave us another glimpse of our AI-powered future. AI personal agents are becoming a thing you need to understand, if not use.
Why Waiting for Certainty Could Be Costly
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
The Case for a Fed Pause Strengthens
Softer U.S. inflation and labor data as well as more cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials shifted the rates outlook this week.
Muni Managers Tout Equity-Like Returns After Historic Selloff
Municipal bond asset managers are finding opportunities in the rout that tore through markets this month, with cheaper valuations and the highest yields in years drawing investors.
Yields & Global Value: Inside Vanguard’s Top 8 ETFs for September
In September, Vanguard ETFs overall recorded a mix of steady market performance, some volatility, and significant dividend distributions, with investors pouring substantial capital into its funds.
Microsoft’s Trillion-Dollar Quarter Powered by Ravenous AI Trade
With Microsoft Corp.’s best quarter for decades in the books, Wall Street is betting the stock can keep rallying as the tech giant’s standing in the artificial intelligence landscape continues to improve.
Tesla Sell Ratings Slide as Street Says ‘Don’t Bet Against Musk’
Tesla Inc. shares have tumbled in 2026, but Wall Street analysts are increasingly reluctant to tell investors to sell.
How the Power of Compounding Shapes Stock Investing Returns
Chuck Carnevale explains the Rule of 72 and shows how earnings growth can compound over time. Using FAST Graphs and real stock examples, he explores how growth and valuation affect long-term returns.
Four Ways to Capitalize on Dispersion
Fixed-income investors are being paid more to take risk than they have been in years, but not all opportunities are created equal. Higher yield levels, heightened volatility and growing differences across countries, sectors, industries and issuers are expanding the opportunity set. Dispersion is the raw material from which active returns are generated. Below are four ways investors can capitalize on it.
What Midterm Elections Do – & Don’t – Mean for Bonds
Midterm elections are increasingly taking over the headlines, and that includes coverage of markets. While inflation, rates, and geopolitics probably have more outright impact on portfolios, investors and market watchers still look to midterm elections as a major event.
The Next Phase of AI is an Earnings Story
Franklin Equity’s Grant Bowers discusses why a higher cost of capital does not change the capital expenditure outlook.
Higher Bond Yields Go Global
The sell-off in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields has continued pretty much in an unabated fashion In fact, multi-year high watermarks are being achieved throughout the fixed coupon maturity curve. The most widely followed development was the UST 10-year yield rising to its highest level since 2007.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Markets await a possible Fed rate hike as Congress weighs Trump's dividend proposal, a limited fall session, and a Senate vote on crypto regulation.
Navigating Fixed Income Duration as Treasury Yields Retreat
Yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PCE print finally gave the bond market a breather, pulling Treasury yields down from their brief 5.3% peak. For financial advisors, this recent whiplash brings fixed income duration conversations back to center stage — specifically, balancing the hunt for long-term yield with the safety of ultra-short cash alternatives.
New Money, New problems: Athletes and Sudden Wealth
You can’t spot it on the field or in the stadium. You can’t correct it in training. Or cure it with a dose from the team doctor. But it’s a malady an overwhelming number of professional athletes will face.
Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Financial Conditions
AI could be a transformative force for the Fed’s policy framework. Elevated investment demand – now coupled with positive wealth effects that are necessitating tighter financial conditions – could eventually give way to a positive supply impact from higher productivity growth that could allow for easier financial conditions without inflationary implications.
Municipal Bonds and AI Data Center Financing
Munis can fund local power, grid, water and wastewater infrastructure; most AI campus capital will be financed in non-municipal markets.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: September 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of September 2026, the weekly average stood at 5.08%, the highest level since July 2007.
Looking Ahead at ETFs for the 2027 Muni Bond Outlook
Explore how muni bond ETFs and targeted state funds can provide tax-efficient yields and strategic flexibility heading into 2027.
How municipal bonds are uniquely positioned in today’s uncertain rate environment
Join the experts at Allspring for an educational webcast exploring how an ultra-short, active municipal bond strategy can navigate the unique challenges of today’s market.
The Macro / Micro Divide
All eyes are on the macro economy. A significant market correction in late July triggered the abrupt collapse of Situational Awareness, L.P., a $45 billion, highly leveraged, AI-focused hedge fund. The collapse forced selling of many technology hardware stocks that were winners in the first half of 2026.
Don’t Be Fooled. Treasuries Aren’t Cheap Yet
Treasuries might look cheap against stocks, GDP and the global cycle, but on their own historical terms they have more to fall before they become oversold and ready for a durable bounce.
Wall Street Regulator Moves to Expand Access to Private Funds
The Securities and Exchange Commission is proposing a series of moves to help expand retail investor access to private markets, so more individuals can access private equity, early-stage startups and other assets.
Treasury Yields Hit Post-GFC Highs as Fed Signals More Hikes Ahead
Last week the S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent and the NASDAQ gained 2.1 percent, hitting a fresh record close earlier in the week, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.8 percent. The bigger story, however, was in rates. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed through 5.2 percent, its highest level since June 2006, and the two-year briefly topped 4.9 percent, its highest in over two years.
Stock Market’s Wall of Worry Gets Taller
Assessing the wall of worry. Here, we assess the market's growing wall of worry, explain why these worries warrant attention, and justify our continued constructive intermediate-to-long-term stock market outlook.
Strong U.S. Growth Meets Rising Rate Risks
Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.
Supercharge Your Roth Savings With After-Tax Contributions
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
Nurture Over Noise: Helping DC Participants Navigate a Complex Information Age
From social media and AI tools to financial professionals and workplace resources, defined contribution (DC) plan participants are drawing retirement insights from an expanding portfolio of sources, according to our latest survey. But more content doesn’t necessarily mean better outcomes. We think plan sponsors are well positioned to help participants cut through the noise.
Investing Amid Geopolitical Fragmentation
Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.
What’s Behind the Move?
Yields have pushed higher with some points on the curve reaching yield levels not seen since the mid-2000s. While it is nearly impossible to pinpoint a specific catalyst for any move in the financial markets, below are a few of the factors that have helped push interest rates higher.
The End of Private Equity’s Leveraged Buyout Era Is Nigh
Higher-for-longer interest rates are forcing buyout firms to face facts. Struggling since 2023 to sell companies purchased in the long decade of ultra-cheap debt before the Covid pandemic, they’ve tried to placate investors with clever financial engineering to help keep some money turning over.
Compounding Costs
Across the world, nations are dealing with rising costs from energy and debt service. These costs are compounding as time goes on.
Why Equity Income ETFs Can Star in Retiree Portfolios
It’s a complicated economic environment to retire in, with high costs and significant geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Still, people want and often may need to retire. However, thanks to innovation in the asset management world, investors have an increasing array of options.
Why Active CLO ETFs Can Shine as PCE Data Cools
Given that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates earlier in September, inflation data that was already crucial has taken on a new meaning. These reports could now serve as a barometer for what is to come from the central bank.
The Opposing Forces Reshaping Global Finance
The financial industry is being pulled between two powerful forces: bottom-up financial technology is enabling seamless integration, while top-down geoeconomic statecraft is promoting fragmentation. So much for the conventional wisdom that finance will simply become smoother, cheaper, and more globalized over time.
Surging Real Yields Test a Resilient Market
The bond market has become the central story for investors. The remarkable development over the past several weeks is not rising inflation expectations but rising real interest rates. Real rates have increased roughly 40 basis points in just three weeks, one of the sharpest moves I can remember over such a short period. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations have actually edged slightly lower.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.23% in August and was up 4.25% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.08% month-over-month and up 0.80% year-over-year.
Consumer Confidence Falls Significantly in September
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell significantly more than expected in September, falling 6.7 points to 81.9. The index was far below the forecast of 89.2.
A Decade of Evolution: What’s Changed in the Midstream Space?
Compared to a decade ago, midstream operators boast improved fundamentals, lower leverage, and robust free cash flow generation. Coupled with surging natural gas demand and a constructive production outlook in response to global geopolitical shifts, these fee-based business models offer compelling yields and a remarkably defensive posture.
Two Measures of Inflation: August 2026
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3% and core CPI at 2.5%.
Core PCE Inflation at 3% in August, Unchanged from July
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3% year-over-year in August. This marks no change from July's reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.2%.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: September 2026
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Have a Process for Decisions on Major Changes at Your Firm
With a process and an approach in place, you should move toward a final solution more easily. All you can do is set it up to be as open and fair as possible, with someone holding the absolute final say once the decision is made.
How Finance Teams Use Agentic AI to Plan Smarter, Forecast Accurately, and Operate Proactively
Finance leaders can use agentic AI to boost budget visibility, develop more accurate forecasts efficiently, and find insights in data that would typically require extensive manual effort. With the right platform and a careful approach to governance, finance functions can start reaping the benefits of augmentation within months.
Griffin Commits $3 Billion to Carnegie Mellon in Largest Single Gift Ever
Ken Griffin is donating $3 billion to Carnegie Mellon University, most of it to establish a new campus in Miami, in the largest single gift committed to a US university.
Extreme Volatility Divergence Exposes ‘Fragile Footing’ for S&P
Stock-market risks are everywhere. But you’d be hard pressed to tell anything was wrong by looking at the surface of major US equity gauges.
Americans Rely on Deposit Insurance. Now Is the Time to Fortify It
Banks in the US have plenty to celebrate these days, from record profits and higher stock prices to a strong economy and easier regulation. One thing they don’t need is an added discount on their deposit insurance — a crucial buffer that should be reinforced when times are good.
Stocks Are Suddenly Looking Cheap? It's Just a Mirage
Has the stock market bubble quietly burst already? Even though the S&P 500 Index has mostly treaded water for the past four months, Wall Street analysts have continued to boost their earnings estimates.
The Flawed Logic of Medicare for All
Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Michigan, has a simple pitch to voters. Imagine, he says, a health-insurance plan with “no premium, no copay, no deductible — just healthcare when you need it.” El-Sayed and other proponents call the idea Medicare for All.
Q2 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP Revised Upward to 2.2%
Real GDP rose 2.2% in Q2 for the third estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which was a 0.7% increase from the previous Q2 advance and second estimates.
What the AI Investment Boom Means for Bonds
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
Slowing Down the Economy? There Is a Better Way
Financial markets continue to grapple with a fundamental question: If inflation remains above target after years of restrictive monetary policy, is interest-rate policy still aimed at the right problem?
NVIDIA Stock Analysis: Extraordinary Growth, Strong Financials, and Key Risks
In this video The Most Powerful Growth Stock, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and known as “Mr. Valuation,” examines NVIDIA through the lens of growth, valuation, financial strength, and long-term return potential. He explains why growth investing is still value investing when a company’s future earnings justify the price being paid.
National Debt A Growing Threat
There is more than one reason the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23% today. Most importantly, the Fed has stopped anchoring interest rates at artificially low levels. Fear of inflation is likely another. However, both of those are related to the massive government debt the US has created.
Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality
I’m writing this week from London, the start of a four-country tour of Europe to see clients. I typically don’t have a lot of free time while on these journeys, but I did sneak away on the weekend for an economics field trip.
Hyperscalers Are Repricing, Not Displacing (So Far)
AI-related borrowers have accounted for nearly a quarter of nonfinancial U.S. dollar (USD) supply year-to-date, yet spreads for non-AI issuers have not widened meaningfully. Instead, hyperscaler spreads have widened, suggesting the market is absorbing the AI supply shock at its source.
Invesco Expands QQQ Suite With International Innovators ETF
On September 23, Invesco launched the Invesco Nasdaq International Innovators 100 ETF (QQI), a fund that seeks to track the performance of the Nasdaq International Innovators 100 Index.