Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Gold has historically performed well during stagflation, a period of high inflation and high unemployment.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for December was published on Friday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.05% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.02% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) dropped to 4.42%, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate.
The January final report came in at 64.9, up 5.2 (8.7%) from the December final. Investing.com had forecast 64.6. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 24% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 23% below its geometric mean.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual paces in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping pave the way for policymakers to further scale back the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which I reported on yesterday, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
For Americans with a New Year’s resolution to trade in their gas furnace or water heater for climate-friendly heat pumps, a word of caution: Generous Inflation Reduction Act rebates for home electrification took effect on Jan. 1, but they won’t actually be available to homeowners until year’s end or 2024 at the earliest, according the US Department of Energy.
Here’s an article to help clients better understand the tax benefits of charitable contributions.
US dollar cycles are long.
The Biden administration is under pressure from Capitol Hill lawmakers and student debt advocates to develop contingency plans to cancel billions of dollars in student debt and to move forward quickly if the Supreme Court strikes down the administration’s initial executive action.
Tesla Inc. has secured a new $5 billion revolving credit facility, another sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
The US economy grew faster than forecast into the end of 2022, but there were signs of slowing underlying demand as the steepest interest-rate hikes in decades threaten growth this year.
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q4 2022 release) and initial jobless claims through 1/21.
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
Having oscillated between anticipating another 50-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve next week or a downshift to 25 basis points, traders have settled solidly on the latter, guided both by Fed officials’ comments and by media reports.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.9% (2.89% to two decimal places), a decrease from 3.2% (3.24% to two decimal places) for the Q3 third estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.6%.
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Here are the three ways to get 2023 off to a great start so you can deliver even more massive value than ever before.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
COVID-19 has been a catalyst for change in many aspects of our lives, not least the migration to flexible working, which would have taken many more years without the pandemic’s brutal intervention.
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Two major issues clients should consider in creating their own long-term care plan are where they will live and how they will pay for the care they are likely to need.
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Word is out among hedge fund managers on how to get tax breaks for giving to charity - without actually handing over their money just yet. They can even keep it in their funds.
For the 15 years preceding 2022, asset management was a great business, fueled by near-double-digit AUM growth driven by rising equity and bond markets. But that party ended in 2022, with big losses in the stock market and record losses in the bond market. My guest today is here to discuss what that means for asset managers, advisors, and the consumer who ultimately own mutual funds and ETFs.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
To determine the places where affluent Americans give the most to charity, we compared 384 metro areas.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
A fiscal disruption could do great damage to the U.S. economy.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy?
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
The recurring farce of lifting the US government debt ceiling began again this week.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
I've updated this series to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $47,438, down 8.6% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
A common mistake that investors make regarding dividend portfolio construction is not having a well-thought-out plan.
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
The greatest financial risk for depleting retirement resources is an unexpected and lengthy stay in a long-term healthcare facility.
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
A correct, affordable and successful industrial policy would create the conditions in which the U.S. and foreign companies will invest in U.S. re-industrialization in their own self-interest.
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Income
Performance Persistence Matters
Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Stagflation! Is NOW the time to buy Precious Metals?
Gold has historically performed well during stagflation, a period of high inflation and high unemployment.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Dollar's Decline Is a Rare Nasdaq Tailwind as Earnings Loom
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Bitcoin Barrels Toward Historic January as Crypto Market Jumps by $280 Billion
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Fed's Wall Street Clash Sets Stage for Powell’s Hawkish Message
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Stocks Are Poised to Hit New Lows This Year, Survey of Investors Shows
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
PCE Price Index: December Headline at 5% YoY
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for December was published on Friday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.05% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.02% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) dropped to 4.42%, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up 8% in January, Beats Forecast
The January final report came in at 64.9, up 5.2 (8.7%) from the December final. Investing.com had forecast 64.6. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 24% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 23% below its geometric mean.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Key Inflation Gauge Cools Further, Paving Way for Smaller Fed Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual paces in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping pave the way for policymakers to further scale back the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Investors Flock to European Stocks Leaving US Behind, BofA Says
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Stagflation! Is Now the time to buy Precious Metals
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
An Inside Look at the GDP Q4 Advance Estimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
CFNAI Components: Employment, Production, Consumption, Sales
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which I reported on yesterday, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
Charitable Giving, Looking Back and Forward
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
Looking for Inflation Reduction Act Rebates to Go Green? Get Ready to Wait
For Americans with a New Year’s resolution to trade in their gas furnace or water heater for climate-friendly heat pumps, a word of caution: Generous Inflation Reduction Act rebates for home electrification took effect on Jan. 1, but they won’t actually be available to homeowners until year’s end or 2024 at the earliest, according the US Department of Energy.
How Does Donating to Charity Reduce Taxes?
Here’s an article to help clients better understand the tax benefits of charitable contributions.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
White House Under Pressure to Develop a 'Plan B' on Student Debt
The Biden administration is under pressure from Capitol Hill lawmakers and student debt advocates to develop contingency plans to cancel billions of dollars in student debt and to move forward quickly if the Supreme Court strikes down the administration’s initial executive action.
Tesla Gets $5 Billion Credit Line in Sign It's Nearing Investment-Grade Status
Tesla Inc. has secured a new $5 billion revolving credit facility, another sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
US Economy Shows Slowdown Signs After Growing 2.9% Last Quarter
The US economy grew faster than forecast into the end of 2022, but there were signs of slowing underlying demand as the steepest interest-rate hikes in decades threaten growth this year.
The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index Update
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q4 2022 release) and initial jobless claims through 1/21.
European Outlook: Less Downside Now, But Caution Still Warranted
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
The “Pain Trade” Is Higher For Now
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
Why the Fed Should Raise Rates by Half a Percent
Having oscillated between anticipating another 50-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve next week or a downshift to 25 basis points, traders have settled solidly on the latter, guided both by Fed officials’ comments and by media reports.
Big Oil Faces Headwinds After Record $199 Billion Profit Haul
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.9%, Better Than Forecast
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.9% (2.89% to two decimal places), a decrease from 3.2% (3.24% to two decimal places) for the Q3 third estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.6%.
Selecting the Best Dividend Growth Stocks for Total Return: Part 2
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.
Municipal Bonds: Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
The Perversion Afflicting Value Investors
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
Big Banks Told to Phase Out Financing of New Fossil-Fuel Projects
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
The Case for the Federal Reserve to Pause Right Now
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
Global Economic Outlook: Run-of-the-Mill
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
How To Make 2023 The Best Year Ever
Here are the three ways to get 2023 off to a great start so you can deliver even more massive value than ever before.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
1099 Season – An Opportunity for Tax-Aware Advisors
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
A Charitable Way to Beat Taxes in the Afterlife
COVID-19 has been a catalyst for change in many aspects of our lives, not least the migration to flexible working, which would have taken many more years without the pandemic’s brutal intervention.
What Would an Early Biden Departure Mean for Markets?
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
Recession Fear Investing
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Investing With a Flat Yield Curve
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Debt-Limit Fight Risks Early End to Fed Quantitative Tightening
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
The 2 Trillion Reasons Why Fed Tightening Isn't So Scary
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
Citadel's $16 Billion Win Tops Paulson's Greatest Trade Ever
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Creating a Plan for Long-Term Care
Two major issues clients should consider in creating their own long-term care plan are where they will live and how they will pay for the care they are likely to need.
IG Outlook: Positive Technicals, Deteriorating Fundamentals
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Hedge Fund Managers Score Tax Break While Keeping Investment Control
Word is out among hedge fund managers on how to get tax breaks for giving to charity - without actually handing over their money just yet. They can even keep it in their funds.
The Post-2022 Asset Management Landscape
For the 15 years preceding 2022, asset management was a great business, fueled by near-double-digit AUM growth driven by rising equity and bond markets. But that party ended in 2022, with big losses in the stock market and record losses in the bond market. My guest today is here to discuss what that means for asset managers, advisors, and the consumer who ultimately own mutual funds and ETFs.
World Markets Update: January 20, 2023
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Where Rich Americans Give the Most to Charity
To determine the places where affluent Americans give the most to charity, we compared 384 metro areas.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
CB LEI: 10th Consecutive Decline in December, Recession Signal Continues
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Why I’m Waiting for the Fed to Pivot
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Debt Ceiling Drama
A fiscal disruption could do great damage to the U.S. economy.
Fortune Doesn’t Always Favor the Bold: The Perils of Concentrated Stock Positions
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
Margin Debt Down 5.8% in December
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
Monetary Policy. Is The Fed Trying To Wean Markets Off Of It?
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy?
A Powerful New Tool Transforms How Billionaires Give Fortunes Away
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
The Debt-Ceiling Nonsense Has Gone On Long Enough
The recurring farce of lifting the US government debt ceiling began again this week.
Treasury Snapshot: January 20, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
What the US Debt-Ceiling Battle Means for Your Money
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Middle-Class Hourly Wages as of December 2022
I've updated this series to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $47,438, down 8.6% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Constructing a Dividend Growth Stock Portfolio for Total Return
A common mistake that investors make regarding dividend portfolio construction is not having a well-thought-out plan.
Existing-Home Sales: Retreat for 11th Consecutive Month
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Quarterly Letter – January 2023
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
Will Your Clients' Retirement Resources Cover Long-Term Care?
The greatest financial risk for depleting retirement resources is an unexpected and lengthy stay in a long-term healthcare facility.
Mid-Cap ETFs’ Moment
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
A Not-So-Fresh Start
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
A Four-Step Plan for Re-Industrialization
A correct, affordable and successful industrial policy would create the conditions in which the U.S. and foreign companies will invest in U.S. re-industrialization in their own self-interest.
Strategic Income Outlook: Was This a Crazy Year or What?
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
Payden & Rygel 2023 Macro Outlook: Macro Memes & Mind Viruses
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
Global Bond Sales Off to Record Start of Nearly $600 Billion
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.