Both supply and demand of workers will prevent a surge in unemployment rates.
There are plenty of high-performing private investment vehicles in India, but it’s the few that are being set up for dubious purposes that may bring harsher regulatory scrutiny to the country’s most rapidly expanding asset class.
The rapid rise of funds that make loans directly to buyout deals and other highly indebted companies — known as private credit — is among the hottest topics in finance.
Back in the Great Financial Crisis era, someone quipped that the federal government had become a giant hedge fund with an army attached. That wasn’t far off. Various agencies and entities were absorbing all kinds of risky assets to stabilize an overleveraged system.
97% of corporate defined benefit (DB) plans can achieve full funding without a significant draw on corporate cash. This is an increase from the 86% noted in last year’s report.
Now that inflation is finally decelerating, regulators are increasingly turning their focus to financial stability.
ESG fund managers who turned to big tech as a low-carbon, high-return bet are growing increasingly anxious over the sector’s experimentation with artificial intelligence.
While the fall in inflation is welcome, the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage borrowers still has some way to play out. The reduction in inflation will help DB members that are drawing on their pension. Pension trustees should consider their investment strategy and support members with their retirement planning.
Former Bridgewater Associates LP executive Bob Elliott’s plan for exchange-traded funds that employ hedge fund strategies has sharpened the debate about whether retail investors should have access to such approaches.
A quirk in retirement fund accounting is making corporate pensions look particularly flush now, giving them more incentive to cut risk by dumping equities and buying bonds.
The primary holder of U.S. Federal debt is, surprising to many, the U.S. federal government itself, accounting for approximately 40% of the total outstanding debt.
The steepening yield curve has grabbed my attention. Historically, it's been a reliable investment signal. However, as I discuss in my article below, today's might not be occurring for the same reasons as in the past. It's not that it's different this time. It just might not be the same (so far).
A new psychological contract is transforming the modern workplace, highlighted by an increase in collective actions and changing employee expectations.
In the latest episode of the Alternative Allocations podcast series, Franklin Templeton’s Tony Davidow has an insightful conversation with the firm’s CEO, Jenny Johnson, regarding the burgeoning opportunities in alternative investments, especially in the current financial climate.
Every year, millions of Americans send their hard-earned money to life insurance companies, in return for a promise that it will grow and provide them with regular income in old age.
Private equity (PE) has become a staple of institutional portfolios, but its performance has often been disappointing. New research shows that the levels of specialization and portfolio diversification should be important considerations when selecting a manager to implement a PE strategy.
Where is the line between selling a financial product and providing investment advice? That question is at the heart of a debate over a new proposal that aims to protect Americans’ retirement savings.
Starting in 2024, IBM will replace its 401(k) plan matching contributions with a new benefit earned within its overfunded DB plan, which has been frozen since 2008. This move essentially un-freezes the tech giant's DB plan.
At a recent educational event organized by Franklin Templeton, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Senior Alternative Investment Strategist Tony Davidow hosted a day of panels that focused on alternative investments.
I remember the exact moment in 2007 when I knew the financial industry was headed for a reckoning. There was no data point that tipped me off, no great insight about the housing market.
In smart beta, we find that factor returns—net of changes in valuation levels—are much lower than recent performance suggests. In fact, many of the most popular new factors (some 458 at last count) have succeeded solely because they have become more expensive.
Recently, I was asked by a client what my return expectations are for the next three years.
Is there a graceful way to explain to clients I’m not the person making these decisions, and that I understand the impact, without betraying my firm and aligning fully with clients?
Contrary to popular belief, “women” and “pre-retirees” are not niches. Here are tips for narrowing a niche that is too broadly defined.
The ancient Greeks had a word κάθαρσις, which in English we now spell as “catharsis,” although it’s pronounced basically the same. It originally referred to purifying religious ceremonies, medical treatments, and so on.
The calendar third quarter of 2023 was a messy one for financial markets at large, and we were not immune to its lack of charms. Nonetheless, it’s been a pretty good year for our small-cap strategy.
Investors are accustomed to getting a snapshot of the market by looking at the latest index statistics. But today, average spreads and yields for investment-grade corporate bonds are deceptive. A look under the hood reveals that intermediate-maturity corporates are a much more compelling opportunity than long-maturity ones.
With interest rates at near 20-year highs, guaranteed lifetime income locks in those rates for the rest of one’s life, creating better retirement outcomes.
Top US regulators are zeroing in on dangers posed by highly leveraged hedge fund trades, and considering options to rein in risks to the broader financial system.
Some investors are considering making tactical tilts to their fixed income portfolios to take advantage of the current high-yield environment.
Japanese profits have benefited from the prolonged deleveraging of Japan Inc. The reduction in debt coupled with exceptionally low interest rates has allowed cash flow to impact the bottom line.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve is currently inverted, with yields on short-term bonds higher than yields on longer-term bonds. Some expect this to unwind with short-term bond yields falling faster than longer-term yields. Amid these expectations, those investors are wondering if they should consider reallocating to shorter-term bonds.
Thomas Jefferson University (TJU) developed a strategic resource allocation framework to rationalize and simplify the complex legacy portfolio structures it had inherited through mergers and acquisitions.
Not so long ago, families, businesses and governments were effectively living in a world of free money.
For the last 40 years, interest rates have gone pretty much one way: down. In the last 18 months, however, rates have crept up, and many are worried they will stay high.
If you go to a financial adviser to chat about investments, here’s how your first meeting will probably go: They will ask you about your attitude to risk. How much money are you prepared to lose?
Public credit markets offer high quality investments with attractive yields and downside resilience, while we see growing longer-term opportunities in private markets.
Common aphorisms and assumed truths about stock returns often imply the disappearance of risk over long horizons. Is that accurate?
Hedge funds are in regulators’ sights again. Their risk-taking with borrowed money must be better monitored and will sometimes have to be limited, the head of a global group of supervisors told the Financial Times last week.
The strike comes at an inflection point for automotive production.
If a teacher, electrician or autoworker buys a stock or a share in a mutual fund, the Securities and Exchange Commission aims to ensure they’re investing on a level playing field.
Today, in a shock decision, the Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate at 5.25% by the tightest possible majority vote of 5-4. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that the BoE would raise the rate to 5.5%.
BlackRock Inc. and other money managers spent years rolling out sustainable funds, seeking to capitalize on surging interest in ESG investing. Now they’re abandoning an increasing number of those products in the US amid political backlash and investor scrutiny.
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believe that issuers that think critically about the environment in which they operate could outperform throughout the full market cycle compared with those who are slower to adapt.
Have you ever wondered why your closing ratio on seminar attendees rarely exceeds 40%?
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports. Should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person.
Higher yields on cash have allowed some de-risking.
Our commentary on household income distribution focuses on average household incomes over the 50+ year history of this data series. The analysis offers some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income from a different perspective with a focus on age bracket.
On the interest rate front, the Federal funds rate is now close to systematic benchmarks that have historically been consistent with prevailing core inflation, nominal GDP growth, and unemployment.
For some organizations, a partial outsourcing of their investment program is preferable to total outsourcing. Despite this, some OCIO providers will still try very hard to sell companies on a full OCIO solution.
Private credit lenders are just getting started in the world of consumer and asset based finance, according to Rob Camacho, Blackstone Inc.’s co-head of asset based finance within the firm’s Structured Finance Group.
I lost my dad, Alfred Munro Flaxington, this past weekend.
You’re nearly there! You’re nearing the age when you can finally stop working and enjoy some well-earned rest. But there are a few more steps you should take before officially retiring, which will ensure greater financial stability and peace of mind in your later years.
Fitch’s recent downgrade of the U.S. debt rating alarmed investors as the deficit and debt steadily increased. The downgrade sent 10-year Treasury bond yields above 4%, causing concern about America’s deteriorating financial condition.
If this is what a bad year for the dollar looks like, I'll take it. Widespread predictions of a significant retreat after a bumper 2022 haven't come to pass.
Entrenched long-term economic growth trends and low inflation, coupled with high and increasing leverage, all but ensure lower interest rates. This article defends that thesis and helps us better appreciate the bearish concerns weighing on bond traders.
Financial journalism has a problem. Apart from a few writers such as Michael Lewis, it is essentially bought and paid for by the financial industry itself – especially, investment management.
I’ll share some of the insights my team has gathered in 2023.
Young workers are struggling to find jobs, despite labor shortages.
We maintain a neutral-duration posture overall. We prefer an up-in-quality bias and have become increasingly selective in non-investment grades.
I thought I’d lead with some really impressive statistics. I just finished reading our latest ADV Part 2 (the SEC disclosure document provided annually to clients) describing the firm.
Fitch Ratings unexpectedly downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+, only the second downgrade in U.S. history, citing debt limit standoffs and rising entitlement costs.
A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.
Many advisors are using longevity assumptions that are less conservative than they think.
UK gilts rally after headline and core inflation numbers surprise to the downside.
ESG scoring and mandates remain a subject we have contested since it sprang to life in 2020. The push of “woke activism” on, and by companies, to meet nebulous or artificial standards has led to various bad outcomes.
Investors willing and able to accept the illiquidity risk of CLOs should consider them as alternatives with attractive risk/reward characteristics.
Target-date funds, which make up over half of total 401(k) assets, are not following investment theory, exposing investors to excessive risk.
Transitioning to a green net-zero economy requires climate solutions that enable the economy to decarbonise, such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and recycling technologies.
Perhaps taking a page from the US, where retirement funds have long made significant equity investments, the UK is hoping that adding lots of private equity to its pension pots will drive higher returns and superior growth outcomes.
Call me superstitious or contrarian — or maybe just a procrastinator — but I only started worrying about a recession last week.
Small business owners without workplace retirement plans now may take advantage of expanded tax credits if they establish one, according to John Kutz, National Retirement Plan Strategist at Franklin Templeton. He outlines recent regulatory and legal developments.
In 2022, the funded status of $20 billion club members reached its highest level since 2007 due to steep rises in discount rates.
Investment banking work has all but dried up and the private equity industry bears a lot of the blame. The bad news for those involved is that managers of buyout funds might struggle to get their flywheels spinning again even when the current economic uncertainty starts to clear up.
Tragically, the 75th anniversary of the UK’s National Health Service this week is less a cause for celebration and pride and more a grim reminder of the everyday reality of premature death.
“We do what we say and do the right thing, we have a service mindset.”
Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable.
Bond traders are bracing for another tumultuous week in which key employment data could push yields on 10-year Treasuries toward 4%, a level that market watchers see luring investors into government debt.
India is rapidly transforming into a formidable global superpower and an increasingly attractive destination for investor capital. Amid rising geopolitical tensions and the impact of disruptive technologies, India's story is a beacon of opportunity in a challenging landscape.
Reading Brendan Ballou’s book, Plunder: Private Equity’s Plan to Pillage America, was to experience a continually reinforcing series of feelings of outrage.
Sam Weitzman of Western Asset Management highlights the overlooked potential of municipal bonds as a high-quality asset class. With fixed income yields reaching near-decade highs and higher tax rates impacting taxable fixed income investing, municipal bonds are offering above-average after-tax returns and downside protection, making them attractive for income seekers.
Few financial topics grab more media attention than money managers who make gobs of money while everyone else suffers. Scott Patterson’s The Chaos Kings centers on two colorful participants who regularly do just that, Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel.
Imagine a new digital environment where our data is portable and democratized, challenging the current monopolies. Web3 promises to be such an environment, using blockchain technology.
This week I saw something I haven’t in a while: a brochure from Strutt & Parker advertising a price reduction on a rather charming Notting Hill house. It is now a mere £4,750,000 ($6 million) — down around 6% from its original listing price.
Central banks have ramped up their hawkish rhetoric this month but for bond bulls, that’s a good thing.
Imagine an investment with stock-like returns and cash-like stability, or close to it. Many investors believe they have found such a thing. It’s called direct lending, and like countless investments before it that promised big profits with little risk, it’s probably too good to be true.
Although once considered a niche strategy, secondaries have matured and now represent a vital cog in the private equity ecosystem, according to Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow.
Hedge funds that deploy a basket of computer algorithms for trading are gaining popularity in China after many investors got burned by human stock pickers.
With interest rates elevated and the number of UK mortgage deals shrinking on a daily basis, many borrowers are seeking to shore up their finances by paying down their home loans early. However, just because you can doesn’t mean you should.
Defined Benefits
Loosening Labor
Both supply and demand of workers will prevent a surge in unemployment rates.
The Murky Uses of India’s Private Credit Funds
There are plenty of high-performing private investment vehicles in India, but it’s the few that are being set up for dubious purposes that may bring harsher regulatory scrutiny to the country’s most rapidly expanding asset class.
Private Credit Won't Cause the Next Financial Crisis
The rapid rise of funds that make loans directly to buyout deals and other highly indebted companies — known as private credit — is among the hottest topics in finance.
Healthcare, a Minor Major Problem
Back in the Great Financial Crisis era, someone quipped that the federal government had become a giant hedge fund with an army attached. That wasn’t far off. Various agencies and entities were absorbing all kinds of risky assets to stabilize an overleveraged system.
2023 Prudent Pension Funding Report: A Story of Positive Trends and Persistent Outliers
97% of corporate defined benefit (DB) plans can achieve full funding without a significant draw on corporate cash. This is an increase from the 86% noted in last year’s report.
A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall on Hedge Funds
Now that inflation is finally decelerating, regulators are increasingly turning their focus to financial stability.
‘AI Blowback’ Angst Grips ESG Investors Who Bet Big on Tech
ESG fund managers who turned to big tech as a low-carbon, high-return bet are growing increasingly anxious over the sector’s experimentation with artificial intelligence.
Falling UK Inflation: What Are the Implications for Pension Savings?
While the fall in inflation is welcome, the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage borrowers still has some way to play out. The reduction in inflation will help DB members that are drawing on their pension. Pension trustees should consider their investment strategy and support members with their retirement planning.
Is a Hedge Fund-Style Investment Right for You?
Former Bridgewater Associates LP executive Bob Elliott’s plan for exchange-traded funds that employ hedge fund strategies has sharpened the debate about whether retail investors should have access to such approaches.
US Pensions to Gorge on Corporate Bonds as Funding Levels Soar
A quirk in retirement fund accounting is making corporate pensions look particularly flush now, giving them more incentive to cut risk by dumping equities and buying bonds.
Who Owns the Federal Debt?
The primary holder of U.S. Federal debt is, surprising to many, the U.S. federal government itself, accounting for approximately 40% of the total outstanding debt.
Today’s Yield Curve Steepening Is Not Different This Time, It’s Not The Same
The steepening yield curve has grabbed my attention. Historically, it's been a reliable investment signal. However, as I discuss in my article below, today's might not be occurring for the same reasons as in the past. It's not that it's different this time. It just might not be the same (so far).
A Changing World: The New Psychological Workplace Contract
A new psychological contract is transforming the modern workplace, highlighted by an increase in collective actions and changing employee expectations.
Democratizing Alternative Investments
In the latest episode of the Alternative Allocations podcast series, Franklin Templeton’s Tony Davidow has an insightful conversation with the firm’s CEO, Jenny Johnson, regarding the burgeoning opportunities in alternative investments, especially in the current financial climate.
Annuities Should Be Boring, Not a Systemic Threat
Every year, millions of Americans send their hard-earned money to life insurance companies, in return for a promise that it will grow and provide them with regular income in old age.
How to Select PE Investments
Private equity (PE) has become a staple of institutional portfolios, but its performance has often been disappointing. New research shows that the levels of specialization and portfolio diversification should be important considerations when selecting a manager to implement a PE strategy.
Retirement Savers Are Getting Ripped Off
Where is the line between selling a financial product and providing investment advice? That question is at the heart of a debate over a new proposal that aims to protect Americans’ retirement savings.
How IBM Reopened Its DB Plan To Replace 401(K) Contributions
Starting in 2024, IBM will replace its 401(k) plan matching contributions with a new benefit earned within its overfunded DB plan, which has been frozen since 2008. This move essentially un-freezes the tech giant's DB plan.
Alternative Allocations: Lessons Learned From Institutions
At a recent educational event organized by Franklin Templeton, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Senior Alternative Investment Strategist Tony Davidow hosted a day of panels that focused on alternative investments.
The Tech Gold Rush Is Over. Where’s the Next One?
I remember the exact moment in 2007 when I knew the financial industry was headed for a reckoning. There was no data point that tipped me off, no great insight about the housing market.
How Can “Smart Beta” Go Horribly Wrong?
In smart beta, we find that factor returns—net of changes in valuation levels—are much lower than recent performance suggests. In fact, many of the most popular new factors (some 458 at last count) have succeeded solely because they have become more expensive.
The Outlook for 2024-26
Recently, I was asked by a client what my return expectations are for the next three years.
How Do I Avoid Badmouthing My Company?
Is there a graceful way to explain to clients I’m not the person making these decisions, and that I understand the impact, without betraying my firm and aligning fully with clients?
How to Narrow Your Niche
Contrary to popular belief, “women” and “pre-retirees” are not niches. Here are tips for narrowing a niche that is too broadly defined.
Debt Catharsis
The ancient Greeks had a word κάθαρσις, which in English we now spell as “catharsis,” although it’s pronounced basically the same. It originally referred to purifying religious ceremonies, medical treatments, and so on.
Lines in the Yield Sand
The calendar third quarter of 2023 was a messy one for financial markets at large, and we were not immune to its lack of charms. Nonetheless, it’s been a pretty good year for our small-cap strategy.
Investment-Grade Corporates: A Tale of Two Markets
Investors are accustomed to getting a snapshot of the market by looking at the latest index statistics. But today, average spreads and yields for investment-grade corporate bonds are deceptive. A look under the hood reveals that intermediate-maturity corporates are a much more compelling opportunity than long-maturity ones.
Guaranteed Lifetime Income is a Better Solution than Taxable Bonds
With interest rates at near 20-year highs, guaranteed lifetime income locks in those rates for the rest of one’s life, creating better retirement outcomes.
US Weighs Leaning on Banks to Curb Hedge Fund Leveraged Trading
Top US regulators are zeroing in on dangers posed by highly leveraged hedge fund trades, and considering options to rein in risks to the broader financial system.
The Role Fixed Income Plays for Non-Profit Investors
Some investors are considering making tactical tilts to their fixed income portfolios to take advantage of the current high-yield environment.
Japan: The Land of the Rising Profits
Japanese profits have benefited from the prolonged deleveraging of Japan Inc. The reduction in debt coupled with exceptionally low interest rates has allowed cash flow to impact the bottom line.
The Inverted Yield Curve: What Institutional Investors Should Know
The U.S. Treasury yield curve is currently inverted, with yields on short-term bonds higher than yields on longer-term bonds. Some expect this to unwind with short-term bond yields falling faster than longer-term yields. Amid these expectations, those investors are wondering if they should consider reallocating to shorter-term bonds.
How We Helped a Health System Evolve Its Investment Program in Alignment With Its Enterprise-Wide Strategic Plan
Thomas Jefferson University (TJU) developed a strategic resource allocation framework to rationalize and simplify the complex legacy portfolio structures it had inherited through mergers and acquisitions.
The 5% Bond Market Means Pain Is Heading Everyone’s Way
Not so long ago, families, businesses and governments were effectively living in a world of free money.
Three Myths About the Bond Market
For the last 40 years, interest rates have gone pretty much one way: down. In the last 18 months, however, rates have crept up, and many are worried they will stay high.
There’s No Such Thing as a Cautious Portfolio Anymore
If you go to a financial adviser to chat about investments, here’s how your first meeting will probably go: They will ask you about your attitude to risk. How much money are you prepared to lose?
Navigating Credit Markets Today – A Q&A With Mark Kiesel and Jamie Weinstein
Public credit markets offer high quality investments with attractive yields and downside resilience, while we see growing longer-term opportunities in private markets.
Long-Horizon Investing, Part 2: Stocks are Always Risky
Common aphorisms and assumed truths about stock returns often imply the disappearance of risk over long horizons. Is that accurate?
Why Central Banks Will Soon Lend to Hedge Funds
Hedge funds are in regulators’ sights again. Their risk-taking with borrowed money must be better monitored and will sometimes have to be limited, the head of a global group of supervisors told the Financial Times last week.
Walking Out On The Auto Industry
The strike comes at an inflection point for automotive production.
Private Fund Investors Don’t Need the SEC’s Help
If a teacher, electrician or autoworker buys a stock or a share in a mutual fund, the Securities and Exchange Commission aims to ensure they’re investing on a level playing field.
Bank of England: A surprise end to UK rate hikes?
Today, in a shock decision, the Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate at 5.25% by the tightest possible majority vote of 5-4. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that the BoE would raise the rate to 5.5%.
BlackRock, State Street Among Money Managers Closing ESG Funds
BlackRock Inc. and other money managers spent years rolling out sustainable funds, seeking to capitalize on surging interest in ESG investing. Now they’re abandoning an increasing number of those products in the US amid political backlash and investor scrutiny.
Weathering the Storm: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation and the Investor’s Imperative
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believe that issuers that think critically about the environment in which they operate could outperform throughout the full market cycle compared with those who are slower to adapt.
How Pre-Screening Avoids “Plate Lickers” at Seminars
Have you ever wondered why your closing ratio on seminar attendees rarely exceeds 40%?
Fewer Losers, or More Winners?
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports. Should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person.
Higher Rates: Positive Values
Higher yields on cash have allowed some de-risking.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2022
Our commentary on household income distribution focuses on average household incomes over the 50+ year history of this data series. The analysis offers some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income from a different perspective with a focus on age bracket.
Central Bankers Wandering in the Woods
On the interest rate front, the Federal funds rate is now close to systematic benchmarks that have historically been consistent with prevailing core inflation, nominal GDP growth, and unemployment.
What Do Investment Outsourcing and Ice Cream Have in Common?
For some organizations, a partial outsourcing of their investment program is preferable to total outsourcing. Despite this, some OCIO providers will still try very hard to sell companies on a full OCIO solution.
Blackstone Says Private Credit Is Coming for Asset-Based Debt
Private credit lenders are just getting started in the world of consumer and asset based finance, according to Rob Camacho, Blackstone Inc.’s co-head of asset based finance within the firm’s Structured Finance Group.
In Memory of My Dad, Alfred Munro Flaxington
I lost my dad, Alfred Munro Flaxington, this past weekend.
Transitioning Into Retirement: Financial Strategies For The Final Stretch
You’re nearly there! You’re nearing the age when you can finally stop working and enjoy some well-earned rest. But there are a few more steps you should take before officially retiring, which will ensure greater financial stability and peace of mind in your later years.
Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher
Fitch’s recent downgrade of the U.S. debt rating alarmed investors as the deficit and debt steadily increased. The downgrade sent 10-year Treasury bond yields above 4%, causing concern about America’s deteriorating financial condition.
The Dollar Is the Fortress China Struggles to Breach
If this is what a bad year for the dollar looks like, I'll take it. Widespread predictions of a significant retreat after a bumper 2022 haven't come to pass.
Why Bond Traders Have it All Wrong
Entrenched long-term economic growth trends and low inflation, coupled with high and increasing leverage, all but ensure lower interest rates. This article defends that thesis and helps us better appreciate the bearish concerns weighing on bond traders.
Is a Hedge Fund-Style Investment Right for You?
Former Bridgewater Associates LP executive Bob Elliott’s plan for exchange-traded funds that employ hedge fund strategies has sharpened the debate about whether retail investors should have access to such approaches.
Financial Journalism Fails its Readers
Financial journalism has a problem. Apart from a few writers such as Michael Lewis, it is essentially bought and paid for by the financial industry itself – especially, investment management.
Four Important Lessons (so far) in 2023
I’ll share some of the insights my team has gathered in 2023.
Putting Young People To Work
Young workers are struggling to find jobs, despite labor shortages.
Munis Maintain Summer Heat in July
We maintain a neutral-duration posture overall. We prefer an up-in-quality bias and have become increasingly selective in non-investment grades.
Harold Evensky’s NewsLetter Vol. 16, No. 3 – August 2023
I thought I’d lead with some really impressive statistics. I just finished reading our latest ADV Part 2 (the SEC disclosure document provided annually to clients) describing the firm.
The Implications Of Fitch Ratings’ U.S. Credit Downgrade
Fitch Ratings unexpectedly downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+, only the second downgrade in U.S. history, citing debt limit standoffs and rising entitlement costs.
The Debt Ceiling Is Raised, but the Debt Problem Persists
A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.
You Are Underestimating Longevity… and How Uncertain It Is
Many advisors are using longevity assumptions that are less conservative than they think.
UK Disinflation Under Way
UK gilts rally after headline and core inflation numbers surprise to the downside.
ESG Is Dying Its Inevitable Death
ESG scoring and mandates remain a subject we have contested since it sprang to life in 2020. The push of “woke activism” on, and by companies, to meet nebulous or artificial standards has led to various bad outcomes.
The Opportunity in CLO Investments
Investors willing and able to accept the illiquidity risk of CLOs should consider them as alternatives with attractive risk/reward characteristics.
The Big Fat 401(k) Fake Out
Target-date funds, which make up over half of total 401(k) assets, are not following investment theory, exposing investors to excessive risk.
Weighted Average Green Revenue (Wagr): Integrating Climate Solutions into Portfolio Construction
Transitioning to a green net-zero economy requires climate solutions that enable the economy to decarbonise, such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and recycling technologies.
Our Pensions Shouldn’t Be Used to Juice the Economy
Perhaps taking a page from the US, where retirement funds have long made significant equity investments, the UK is hoping that adding lots of private equity to its pension pots will drive higher returns and superior growth outcomes.
Yes, a Recession Is Still a Possibility
Call me superstitious or contrarian — or maybe just a procrastinator — but I only started worrying about a recession last week.
An Attractive Deal Awaits Small Businesses When Starting a Workplace Retirement Plan
Small business owners without workplace retirement plans now may take advantage of expanded tax credits if they establish one, according to John Kutz, National Retirement Plan Strategist at Franklin Templeton. He outlines recent regulatory and legal developments.
$20 Billion Club Strategy Series – Funding Policy
In 2022, the funded status of $20 billion club members reached its highest level since 2007 due to steep rises in discount rates.
The Private Equity Machine Will Be Tough to Unjam
Investment banking work has all but dried up and the private equity industry bears a lot of the blame. The bad news for those involved is that managers of buyout funds might struggle to get their flywheels spinning again even when the current economic uncertainty starts to clear up.
A Death Letter to Loved Ones Makes Financial Sense
Tragically, the 75th anniversary of the UK’s National Health Service this week is less a cause for celebration and pride and more a grim reminder of the everyday reality of premature death.
A Service Mindset
“We do what we say and do the right thing, we have a service mindset.”
Three Reasons to Moderate Your Optimism
Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable.
Dizzying Bond Moves Put 4% Yield in Play to Win Over Investors
Bond traders are bracing for another tumultuous week in which key employment data could push yields on 10-year Treasuries toward 4%, a level that market watchers see luring investors into government debt.
The Rise Of India: A Powerhouse In The Making
India is rapidly transforming into a formidable global superpower and an increasingly attractive destination for investor capital. Amid rising geopolitical tensions and the impact of disruptive technologies, India's story is a beacon of opportunity in a challenging landscape.
Gaining Wealth and Prestige Through Meanness
Reading Brendan Ballou’s book, Plunder: Private Equity’s Plan to Pillage America, was to experience a continually reinforcing series of feelings of outrage.
Municipal Bonds, Powered by Tax-Exemption, Earn Renewed Appeal
Sam Weitzman of Western Asset Management highlights the overlooked potential of municipal bonds as a high-quality asset class. With fixed income yields reaching near-decade highs and higher tax rates impacting taxable fixed income investing, municipal bonds are offering above-average after-tax returns and downside protection, making them attractive for income seekers.
Of Black Swans and White Chipmunks
Few financial topics grab more media attention than money managers who make gobs of money while everyone else suffers. Scott Patterson’s The Chaos Kings centers on two colorful participants who regularly do just that, Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel.
Exploring Web3, Artificial Intelligence And The Digital Asset Revolution
Imagine a new digital environment where our data is portable and democratized, challenging the current monopolies. Web3 promises to be such an environment, using blockchain technology.
The Bank of England Owes Mortgage Payers a Big Apology
This week I saw something I haven’t in a while: a brochure from Strutt & Parker advertising a price reduction on a rather charming Notting Hill house. It is now a mere £4,750,000 ($6 million) — down around 6% from its original listing price.
Traders Can’t Get Enough of Treasuries Even With Hawkish Fed
Central banks have ramped up their hawkish rhetoric this month but for bond bulls, that’s a good thing.
Looks Like Cash and Acts Like Stocks, But It Has a Catch
Imagine an investment with stock-like returns and cash-like stability, or close to it. Many investors believe they have found such a thing. It’s called direct lending, and like countless investments before it that promised big profits with little risk, it’s probably too good to be true.
Alternative Allocations: The Growth and Diversification of Secondaries
Although once considered a niche strategy, secondaries have matured and now represent a vital cog in the private equity ecosystem, according to Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow.
Quant Funds That Spread Bets Are Having a Moment in China
Hedge funds that deploy a basket of computer algorithms for trading are gaining popularity in China after many investors got burned by human stock pickers.
Reducing Your Mortgage May Not Be the Smartest Strategy
With interest rates elevated and the number of UK mortgage deals shrinking on a daily basis, many borrowers are seeking to shore up their finances by paying down their home loans early. However, just because you can doesn’t mean you should.