Portfolio Building

It has been an eventful six months, and we are delighted that the Equity Dislocation Strategy has risen to the occasion. The Strategy generated a 9.05% net return in the first half of 2026, compared with a 1.3% return for MSCI ACWI Value minus MSCI ACWI Growth, a broad proxy for the value-growth spread.

The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.

After a wild last 12 months in a technology stock boom – and more recent volatility – the question du jour, in our view, is not whether AI is transformative.

Every major geopolitical crisis has two types of effects: those that occur during the crisis itself and those that remain on a long-term basis, perhaps even permanently. The US-Iran conflict is no exception.

Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.

While tariff uncertainty hasn’t completely disappeared, it has diminished, and firms are feeling less uncertain about the future.

The first wave of upgrades came after the AI hyperscalers reported, by and large, strong earnings. But most of the improvement has stemmed from the rest of the non-financials index, with analysts quadrupling their one-year aggregate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth expectations, from 5% at the end of January to more than 20% as of 30 June.

Despite geopolitical headwinds, the broader macro backdrop remained constructive in the first half of the year. Economic growth proved resilient, consumers kept spending and the S&P 500 gained 10%. That favorable mix drove strong earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings rising 27% year over year in 1Q26, led by the tech sector.

Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.

Fixed income experts James Donahue, John Lloyd and Mike Talaga revisit the levels of supply related to the AI buildout and explain why they remain cautious towards investment grade tech issuance.

For investors who have been tracking this space, the signing is a continuation of a policy architecture that has been assembling with surprising speed.

Unpack the latest ICI flow data as long-term mutual funds bleed billions directly into low-cost, model-ready ETFs.

The Great Moderation has given way to a more volatile era, where inflation shocks and market dispersion favor flexibility and diversification.

As we move through 2026, the political and geopolitical landscapes remain key drivers of policy uncertainty. For the midterm elections, our base case is a Democratic House and Republican Senate, a historically favorable outcome for equities.

The action in Emerging Markets ETFs this year has been really interesting to watch. From record-breaking asset flows to impressive results, albeit massively dispersed, this category of funds has had quite a ride so far in 2026. What comes next could be equally interesting.

Central bankers expect de-dollarization to continue over the next several years, with gold and other currencies taking on a growing role in the global monetary system, according to a survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF).

Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor reviews a strong second quarter for emerging markets, where AI and reindustrialization were key drivers of investor returns.

Investors are often drawn to healthcare for its innovation and long-term growth potential. Yet in practice, allocations are often concentrated in a few large pharmaceutical companies, whether through direct stock picking or index weightings.

The small-cap stock rally we highlighted back in April has continued over the past few months, driven by factors such as robust U.S. economic growth disproportionately benefiting smaller, domestically focused businesses and the AI capital spending boom spreading to smaller tech and energy companies.

ClearBridge Investments: Although markets often pause to digest after large gains, history suggests these episodes usually prove fleeting, meaning major indexes could move higher in the second half of 2026.

Markets move on data, earnings, interest rates, and economic conditions. But they can also be heavily influenced by human behavior. Even experienced investors can fall into emotional or psychological patterns that affect decision-making, particularly during periods of uncertainty or market volatility.

For much of the last decade, investing felt relatively one dimensional. Falling inflation, near zero interest rates and abundant liquidity rewarded long duration growth assets, compressed dispersion and made passive exposure difficult to challenge.

The June jobs report underscored our thesis that while the labor market remains in the 'economic plus column,' some of the prior months' increases in new hiring seemed a bit too high.

Over the first half of 2026, markets faced some expected — and unexpected — tailwinds and headwinds, ranging from geopolitical developments, blockbuster corporate earnings, increasing artificial intelligence (AI) scrutiny, resilient economic data, and a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair.

The capital markets have become an increasingly complex space for investors, complexities that are heightened by the sheer number of ways one can invest.

Model portfolios are seeing billions in inflows, and part of that success may be from how these strategies implement ETFs and private assets.

Royce Investment Partners: In this second quarter recap, Francis Gannon discusses how US small-and micro-cap stocks have continued to lead the US equity market in a robust period for equities.

Stocks staged a powerful recovery in Q2. The S&P 500 gained 15% and closed near record highs as oil round-tripped back to pre-conflict levels, AI enthusiasm returned, and the rally broadened well beyond the handful of names that led the market for three years.

AI may reshape the labor market in ways that are difficult to predict, and it won’t be the first time this has happened. In the short term, the labor market appears to have stabilized and there are some early signs of acceleration.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Higher rates, weaker underwriting, and software concentration are exposing vulnerabilities in direct lending and leveraged loans, while high yield bonds appear better positioned.

The S&P 500’s recent advance is masking a more dynamic story for US equity investors. Market winners remain confined to a tight clique of AI-related technology stocks, yet more companies are showing attractive fundamentals. For active equity investors, we believe this points to a more diversified and differentiated opportunity set ahead.

Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.

Bypass the headaches of individual closed-end funds. Discover how Invesco's PCEF bundles over 100 CEFs to capture June's debt rallies.

While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the latest meeting, investors increasingly speculate that rate hikes are on the table in 2026.

The most interesting shift in market price action in June was the strong outperformance of value stocks compared to the broad market and tech

A growing share of central bankers argue that artificial intelligence will ultimately push neutral interest rates higher. Intuitively, if AI boosts productivity and lifts long-run growth, then households have less incentive to save, pushing up the real neutral rate.

Six months is enough time for a lot to change. Your income, your expenses, your goals, and even the broader economy may look different than they did at the start of the year. And a plan that made sense in January might not fit the reality you're living in now.

Midway through 2026, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Global Investment Outlook framework remains a valuable lens—but the landscape has shifted.

The war in Iran has delivered an oil shock into a bond market that had not fully shaken inflation pressures. Higher energy prices have revived concerns about the path of inflation just as central banks were edging toward rate cuts, forcing a reassessment of what investors require to hold long-term bonds. That reassessment is now playing out in higher long-term yields and steeper yield curves globally.

AI-related disruption, asset valuations and borrower stress have put private credit under a microscope lately. Is this a market facing its first major test after a decade of rapid growth? If it is, we expect it to pass comfortably.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its June 17 meeting, but investors were more focused on the future under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whom Trump appointed in May.

Federal estate taxes may not affect most households, but state death taxes can still be significant. Learn key planning considerations and strategies to help preserve wealth.

The strong run by the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 the last few years has loaded portfolios with heavy concentration risk. As a tiny group of mega cap tech giants shapes the market, finding meaningful diversification has become a priority for advisors. Data from last week’s VettaFi Mid-Year Market Outlook Symposium confirms that wealth managers are actively looking down the market-cap spectrum to rebalance risk.

The dollar holds a central place in global markets due to its role as the world’s reserve currency. Its movements influence cross-asset correlations, shape liquidity conditions, and often offer early indications of shifts in the broader macro regime. In short, it is a critical variable that warrants close attention.

Today’s market backdrop reflects a tension between expectations and reality. Despite higher oil prices and plenty of geopolitical noise, the US economy remains resilient and durable, supported by steady consumer spending, a labor market finding its footing, ongoing fiscal support and a surge in AI and infrastructure investment.

The second quarter wraps up today, and it was a good one. With the S&P 500 having returned more than 14% (including dividends) with just one trading day left, it will almost certainly end up being the best quarter for the index since the second quarter of 2020. Technology was the leader despite the June weakness.

The Mag 7 has been the single largest driver of the stock market’s performance three straight years, accounting for over 20% of the S&P 500’s performance. However, there is a performance divergence happening in 2026 as the S&P 500 continues to go up, while the Mag7 go down.

A look at the resilient global economy, evolving market opportunities, and key risks shaping the investment outlook.

At first glance, allocating to emerging markets appears to add diversification to a portfolio. Look more closely, and the reality is more nuanced. In the late 1990s, the MSCI EM index was dominated by materials and telecoms, driven by the growth of mobile telephony and the internet bubble.

June saw strong market fundamentals once again in conflict with macroeconomic uncertainties, creating a choppy market. While a durable peace plan with Iran is seemingly underway, investors have regarded the negotiations with caution, pricing in potential setbacks.

Markets may have ended the first quarter with a thud, but stocks put another record run in the books to close out the first half of 2026. The U.S. ETF market had already shattered records, crossing the $15 trillion threshold and cruising past $1 trillion in net inflows right before summer officially began.

While the Middle East is still far from calm, it does appear the worst of the volatility in the region is in the past. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is in place, with negotiations underway for a more durable peace.

A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.

Startup equity decisions often happen before a founder has a full advisory team in place. Formation documents get signed, vesting schedules are approved, and the tax consequences may not feel urgent because the company is still young.

In our view, this divergence continues to reflect how the buildout of artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing both the economy and markets as it progresses across the value chain, even as the associated costs continue to climb.

Insurance investors face a broader opportunity set than ever across public and private credit—from corporate lending to asset-based finance. But those investments come in many forms. In our view, a all-encompassing approach can better assess relative value, pivot to new avenues and align investments with portfolio, liability and regulatory considerations.