Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Gold has historically performed well during stagflation, a period of high inflation and high unemployment.
The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
The S&P 500 climbed for most of the week, ending with its highest close of the year on Friday. The index is up 6.04% YTD and is 15.14% below its record close.
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
BuzzFeed Inc. shares surged by a record on news that the digital-media company plans to use OpenAI to bolster some of its content creation.
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
Here are six steps to implement multiple niches, bring in new clients, and accelerate their growth goals.
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
In 2023, trust is only half of the equation, The other half is authority.
Here’s an article to help clients better understand the tax benefits of charitable contributions.
US dollar cycles are long.
There’s a price to be paid for being early in investing even if you get the broader story right, as US stock market bears are learning the hard way.
Special needs trusts and ABLE accounts are the pillars of special needs funding. I have a professional here to discuss the differences between them and how each can be used to maximize financial resources. This includes protecting government benefits, understanding eligibility requirements, guidelines for use, and funding options. The discussion will explain how you can best support families to provide quality of life and a lifetime of care.
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
It pays to parse the language of any company’s earnings report, but perhaps more so for Tesla Inc. You could say it’s in the corporate genes.
Checking your 401(k) account balance is a little less painful these days.
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
Microsoft Corp. is investing $10 billion in OpenAI, whose artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT has lit up the internet since its introduction in November, amassing more than a million users within days and touching off a fresh debate over the role of AI in the workplace.
For the 15 years preceding 2022, asset management was a great business, fueled by near-double-digit AUM growth driven by rising equity and bond markets. But that party ended in 2022, with big losses in the stock market and record losses in the bond market. My guest today is here to discuss what that means for asset managers, advisors, and the consumer who ultimately own mutual funds and ETFs.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy?
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.
Cathie Wood is back to selling JD.com Inc. shares after a hiatus of about six months as Chinese technology stocks see a historic rebound helped by regulatory easing.
It’s as close to a sure-thing bet as markets ever offer. When the S&P 500 falls 20% or more, a recession is close behind
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
After a year that brought a surprise surge in interest rates, the biggest stock drop since 2008 and a halt to major deals, plenty of finance executives lined up at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting to say they now see reasons to be upbeat.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
A common mistake that investors make regarding dividend portfolio construction is not having a well-thought-out plan.
The lag effect of monetary policy changes will surprise the Fed as the fiscal “pig” of stimulus begins to exit the economic “python.”
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
December's ZHVI came in at $357,319, slightly up from the previous month by 0.01% and up 10.8% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.77% MoM and 3.02% YoY.
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
Reducing the U.S. deficit is praiseworthy. How was that accomplished in 2022?
A chart breakdown in the S&P 500. Signs of complacency in a closely watched options gauge.
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
There are several ways to look at Tesla’s deep price cuts in the US and Europe, which came on the heels of two rounds of reductions in the span of 10 weeks in China.
Some of the biggest investors in US commercial real estate are looking to cash in before property values slide further.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 35 is up 4 from last month's 31, ending 12 consecutive monthly declines.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
Capital Growth
Performance Persistence Matters
Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Stagflation! Is NOW the time to buy Precious Metals?
Gold has historically performed well during stagflation, a period of high inflation and high unemployment.
Historic Crash for Memory Chips Threatens to Wipe Out Earnings
The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Why Have Equal-Weighted Portfolios Outperformed the Market?
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
Dollar's Decline Is a Rare Nasdaq Tailwind as Earnings Loom
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Bitcoin Barrels Toward Historic January as Crypto Market Jumps by $280 Billion
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Fed's Wall Street Clash Sets Stage for Powell’s Hawkish Message
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Stocks Are Poised to Hit New Lows This Year, Survey of Investors Shows
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
S&P 500 Snapshot: Friday Ends Up 0.25%
The S&P 500 climbed for most of the week, ending with its highest close of the year on Friday. The index is up 6.04% YTD and is 15.14% below its record close.
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
BuzzFeed Shares Surge 120% on Plans to Embrace OpenAI
BuzzFeed Inc. shares surged by a record on news that the digital-media company plans to use OpenAI to bolster some of its content creation.
Investors Flock to European Stocks Leaving US Behind, BofA Says
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Stagflation! Is Now the time to buy Precious Metals
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
An Uncommon Approach to Implementing Multiple Niches
Here are six steps to implement multiple niches, bring in new clients, and accelerate their growth goals.
Charitable Giving, Looking Back and Forward
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
The Secret to Making the Sale in 2023
In 2023, trust is only half of the equation, The other half is authority.
How Does Donating to Charity Reduce Taxes?
Here’s an article to help clients better understand the tax benefits of charitable contributions.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
GDP and Jobs Show the Stock Market Bears Are Still Early
There’s a price to be paid for being early in investing even if you get the broader story right, as US stock market bears are learning the hard way.
Funding Special Needs Clients with ABLE Accounts
Special needs trusts and ABLE accounts are the pillars of special needs funding. I have a professional here to discuss the differences between them and how each can be used to maximize financial resources. This includes protecting government benefits, understanding eligibility requirements, guidelines for use, and funding options. The discussion will explain how you can best support families to provide quality of life and a lifetime of care.
The “Pain Trade” Is Higher For Now
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
We Asked ChatGPT to Make a Market-Beating ETF. Here’s What Happened
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
$1 Trillion Green Investment Matches Fossil Fuels for First Time
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Big Oil Faces Headwinds After Record $199 Billion Profit Haul
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Musk's Big Tesla Growth Target Is a Problem
It pays to parse the language of any company’s earnings report, but perhaps more so for Tesla Inc. You could say it’s in the corporate genes.
Popular 401(k) Funds Rebound After Tanking in 2022
Checking your 401(k) account balance is a little less painful these days.
Selecting the Best Dividend Growth Stocks for Total Return: Part 2
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.
The Perversion Afflicting Value Investors
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
1099 Season – An Opportunity for Tax-Aware Advisors
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
What Would an Early Biden Departure Mean for Markets?
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
Recession Fear Investing
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Investing With a Flat Yield Curve
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Debt-Limit Fight Risks Early End to Fed Quantitative Tightening
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
The 2 Trillion Reasons Why Fed Tightening Isn't So Scary
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
Cathie Wood's ARKK Is Well on Way to One of Its Best Months Ever
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
Citadel's $16 Billion Win Tops Paulson's Greatest Trade Ever
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Ask Brad: Do You Rent or Own Your Advisory Practice?
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
Microsoft Invests $10 Billion in ChatGPT Maker OpenAI
Microsoft Corp. is investing $10 billion in OpenAI, whose artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT has lit up the internet since its introduction in November, amassing more than a million users within days and touching off a fresh debate over the role of AI in the workplace.
The Post-2022 Asset Management Landscape
For the 15 years preceding 2022, asset management was a great business, fueled by near-double-digit AUM growth driven by rising equity and bond markets. But that party ended in 2022, with big losses in the stock market and record losses in the bond market. My guest today is here to discuss what that means for asset managers, advisors, and the consumer who ultimately own mutual funds and ETFs.
World Markets Update: January 20, 2023
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Nvidia to Win Big From ChatGPT Hype, Wall Street Predicts
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
CB LEI: 10th Consecutive Decline in December, Recession Signal Continues
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Fortune Doesn’t Always Favor the Bold: The Perils of Concentrated Stock Positions
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
Margin Debt Down 5.8% in December
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
Monetary Policy. Is The Fed Trying To Wean Markets Off Of It?
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy?
A Powerful New Tool Transforms How Billionaires Give Fortunes Away
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
China Stocks on Cusp of Bull Market as Year of the Tiger Ends
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.
Cathie Wood Resumes Selling in JD.com for First Time Since July
Cathie Wood is back to selling JD.com Inc. shares after a hiatus of about six months as Chinese technology stocks see a historic rebound helped by regulatory easing.
There's an Upbeat Signal Buried Beneath the Stock Market's Surface
It’s as close to a sure-thing bet as markets ever offer. When the S&P 500 falls 20% or more, a recession is close behind
US Market Watchers Are Fretting Over the Biggest January Options Expiry in a Decade
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Treasury Snapshot: January 20, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
Wall Street Spreads New Year Cheer With Upbeat Davos Outlook
After a year that brought a surprise surge in interest rates, the biggest stock drop since 2008 and a halt to major deals, plenty of finance executives lined up at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting to say they now see reasons to be upbeat.
What the US Debt-Ceiling Battle Means for Your Money
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Constructing a Dividend Growth Stock Portfolio for Total Return
A common mistake that investors make regarding dividend portfolio construction is not having a well-thought-out plan.
The Lag Effect Of The Fiscal Pig & Economic Python
The lag effect of monetary policy changes will surprise the Fed as the fiscal “pig” of stimulus begins to exit the economic “python.”
Existing-Home Sales: Retreat for 11th Consecutive Month
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Quarterly Letter – January 2023
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
Zillow Home Value Index: December Update
December's ZHVI came in at $357,319, slightly up from the previous month by 0.01% and up 10.8% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.77% MoM and 3.02% YoY.
Mid-Cap ETFs’ Moment
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
A Not-So-Fresh Start
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
Strategic Income Outlook: Was This a Crazy Year or What?
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
The Deficit is Not the Debt
Reducing the U.S. deficit is praiseworthy. How was that accomplished in 2022?
Bruised Stock Bears Bust Out the Charts in Arguing the Top Is In
A chart breakdown in the S&P 500. Signs of complacency in a closely watched options gauge.
Global Bond Sales Off to Record Start of Nearly $600 Billion
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Macro Hedge Funds Had a Banner Year. Can They Stage an Encore?
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
Investors Risk Making a Classic Portfolio Mistake
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Tesla Is on Both Offense and Defense in Its First-Ever Price War
There are several ways to look at Tesla’s deep price cuts in the US and Europe, which came on the heels of two rounds of reductions in the span of 10 weeks in China.
Investors Seek to Pull $20 Billion From Core Real Estate Funds
Some of the biggest investors in US commercial real estate are looking to cash in before property values slide further.
NAHB Housing Market Index: "Builder Confidence Uptick Signals Turning Point for Housing Lies Ahead"
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 35 is up 4 from last month's 31, ending 12 consecutive monthly declines.
Retail Sales Down 1.15% in December, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.