Specialty Investments

Fast-money quants were effectively forced to buy an estimated $225 billion of stocks and bonds over just two trading sessions, as one of Wall Street’s hottest strategies in the great 2022 bear market shows signs of cracking.

I look back to other periods when bonds outperformed stocks. This analysis allows us to assess specific stock traits and specific industries that over- and underperformed in those eras.

The top 50 broad strategy funds – determined by highest historical performance through 2021--outperformed the market by 21 percentage points through the first six months of 2022.

One investment with the ability to provide current income, inflation protection, and even the potential for capital appreciation has been largely overlooked – rising dividend stocks.

Bill Bengen’s 4% safe withdrawal rule is the standard by which retirement strategies are measured. But it fails as a practical guide to retirement planning. Here is how to fix it.

Direct indexing is the fastest growing segment of the asset management industry. In this interview, Brandon Thomas of Envestnet explains how direct indexing helps clients gain low-cost, tax-efficient exposure to asset classes, ESG and quantitative strategies.

A new wave of lawsuits alleges that Blackrock’s target date funds (TDFs) have underperformed. These lawsuits open the door to a related and scandalous breach of fiduciary duty – excessive risk.

Sales of bonds backed by debt associated with single-family rental housing has soared over the last two years, as rents climbed across the country.

After spending much of 2022 playing defense, professional speculators are reasserting themselves with aggressive equity bets on both the short and long side.

If Wall Street is right, the big revival in value investing in the post-lockdown era is in danger of falling apart all thanks to the resurgent bond market.

A few billion dollars cannot move a multi-trillion inflation needle. Two types of inflation are in play: one is transitory, but the other is not. The Fed cannot control inflation, but we want to believe it can.

When it comes to a comfortable retirement, women in the US have the cards stacked against them.

We meet the official definition of a market correction and the unofficial definition of a recession, and we’re close to the definition of high inflation. Market corrections can and have caused recessions. Be prepared for all three problems coexisting for many years.

There was a major development in 2006 that transformed how Americans invest for retirement. It solved one problem, but created another that will be causing extra pain to people who retire in this economy.

Among the many factors cited in academic research, only a handful have been sufficiently reliable for use in asset pricing models. One of those is momentum. New research shows that it works globally – even in China, a country whose markets have not historically exhibited momentum.

Last month I advised abandoning stocks and bonds in favor of inflation-protected alternatives. That hasn’t worked out. I have not changed my mind. Interest rates will increase and cause losses in stock and bond markets.

None of us can control markets, but it’s critical that our clients know how they have performed relative to appropriate benchmarks.

Depending on risk and diversification, 401(k) plans have lost between 4% and 20% so far this year. Unlike most other periods when stocks lost money, bonds have not defended well this time.

If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.

Two forecasting methods predict a 54% stock market loss in 2022. Someday the stock market bubble will burst. But the data says we have not seen the worst of equity market declines.

Why would I work to increase the profile of an active fund manager? My reasons reflect the increasing pressure on advisors to differentiate themselves and demonstrate value.

In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.

Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.

It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.

The U.S. debt cannot be paid, even in inflated dollars. Serious inflation is inevitable that will crash stock and bond markets, in addition to devaluing the dollar.

The historical data has shown that the value premium is smaller for large-cap securities than for small caps. But new research shows that large-cap investors can increase the premium by pursuing an equal-weighted strategy.

Antti Ilmanen’s Investing Amid Low Expected Returns updates his 2011 Expected Returns, a volume considered by many the definitive work on the subject.

The 60/40 stock/bond allocation is ubiquitous, but that’s stupid because it’s just not right for everyone, especially baby boomers.

Given the war in the Ukraine, I thought it would be helpful to provide insights for advisors and investors to think about risk and what if any actions should be considered.

The Rest of the Story was a radio show that aired from 1942-2008. Host Paul Harvey revealed little known facts that were previously not reported. The rest of the Federal Reserve story is that it is just pretending to be in control, and the rest of the Russian invasion story is about China and the U.S. dollar.

Advisors make seven predictably irrational mistakes when it comes to bonds, depleting their clients’ wealth and standard of living.

Interest rate manipulation has been achieved through massive money printing that is causing inflation. To control inflation, bond manipulation must stop. When the manipulation ends, bond prices will plummet, and stock prices will follow.