Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 23, 2022, at 3.09%, the 2-year note ended at 3.01%, and the 30-year at 3.21%.
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
In this video I cover 20 stocks requested by subscribers.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Crypto meltdowns. Tech implosions. The biggest rate hike in decades.
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
The US has become the world's oil barrel of last resort, single handedly keeping prices in the energy market from exploding even higher by selling a large chunk of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
Mexico was the best-performing Latin American market in 2021 and our recent trip reinforced the reasons to remain bullish.
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
As of June 13, the price of Regular and Premium were up 13 cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.43 and Georgia has the cheapest at $4.47. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 120.93 and is up 2.1% from last week.
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
There’s a fight brewing in the lithium market, after a controversial forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts set off a backlash among some of the industry’s most prominent experts.
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The proliferation of semiconductors throughout our economy may drive more durable, less cyclical demand and earnings.
Oil extended losses for a third session as the prospect of further monetary tightening to combat surging US inflation sent global markets spiraling lower.
Madonna was right. That iPhone on which you may be reading this article is far less important to society than the materials – like steel and plastic – that were used to build it.
Energy has been on quite a run.
Google, Facebook and Microsoft Corp. — three of the world’s biggest corporate buyers of clean power — are sounding the alarm that a nearly $4 billion, Warren Buffett-backed renewable-energy project proposed in Iowa isn’t necessarily in the best interest of customers, including them.
The global trade in the cheapest foods is grinding to a halt.
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.
Economists like to strip food and energy out of their inflation calculations. They’re too volatile to be meaningful, they say. But for everyday Americans coping with exploding prices, those items are pretty much all they care about right now.
Stanley Druckenmiller has a warning for Wall Street: The sharp decline in the stock market isn’t over just yet.
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.
Most investors take their cue from stock price volatility.
Crude oil and energy equities have been on a tear for the last two years.
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May saw 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 325K jobs gained.
Welcome to the endless cycle of debate over whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of choice will be the much-needed push to jumpstart climate policy around the world. It splits neatly between so-called activists focused on the “should” or “ought” versus the often self-styled realists espousing “careful,” “balanced” views.
Reasons to worry about a recession are piling up: the Federal Reserve's inflation fight, a slowing housing market, warnings from retailers and venture capitalists and a smattering of layoff announcements.
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
It will cost more than the gross domestic product of the entire world to rewire the global economy to run on clean energy.
This commentary provides a look at what we covered in the latest Weekly Insights report. The Weekly Insights Report is part of our entry-level service: presenting some of the key findings from our institutional research service.
Virtual reality is not reality!
The world is struggling with simultaneous energy and climate crises. To solve the first could require undoing all the progress made toward greener power and cleaner air. But it doesn’t have to be that way.
The May US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.0, down 2.2 from the final April figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
They are creations of easy credit, beneficiaries of central bank largesse. And now that the era of unconventional monetary policy is over, they’re facing a challenge like never before.
Treasuries extended their slump in New York, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up by the most in more than three weeks, as renewed inflation concerns and economic data supported expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes in coming months.
High inflation has captured the headlines as of late particularly as CPI recently hit the highest levels since 1981.
Summer is right around the corner, and traditionally that’s when families pack their bags and get away for a well-deserved vacation. Since this is the first summer travel season in three years that feels like the before times, airlines and airports are bracing for what is expected to be a particularly busy three months.
It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy.
Texas now leads the nation in the number of Fortune 500 companies that are headquartered in the state.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in April rose 0.52% and is up 8.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.27%. The real number is up 2.0% year-over-year. October through March revisions were made.
The war in Ukraine will pour more gasoline on the already raging inflationary fire, threatening to send the global economy into stagflation. Stagflation is a slowdown of economic activity caused by inflation.
Low inventories drove natural gas prices to their highest level since 2008, while above normal temperatures are putting additional stress on natural gas supply.
Central bankers can’t drill for oil, grow more crops or repair global supply chains. That means the only quick fix available to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues for cooling the fastest inflation in four decades may be raising interest rates so much that they crash the economy into recession.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is taking its biggest step yet to stop money managers from misleading investors when they claim their funds are focused on environmental, social or governance issues.
The price of foods, fuels and other essential items are spiraling ever upward as Russia’s war on Ukraine compounds supply-chain woes stemming from the pandemic. Central banks may be in the driving seat when it comes to tackling inflation, but it’s governments that face the fallout and so are compelled to act.
U.S. equities are trading lower in afternoon action with the markets unable to extend yesterday's solid gains.
The future is always unknown.
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
With economies scrambling for alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers perspective on single-country portfolio exposure to other world oil producers.
Stocks start the week higher following recent bearishness.
Two of the world’s most respected investors, Jeremy Grantham and Ray Dalio, offered identical warnings: The bubble in U.S. equities is unwinding, and the economy is headed for stagflation.
Some 162 companies in the S&P 500 Index received target price reductions Thursday compared with only 62 increases, according to Bloomberg data. The difference marked one of the sharpest swings in analyst sentiment in the 11 years of the series.
The rise in energy costs has contributed to rampant inflation, prompting central banks to raise rates and stoking investor concern growth will slow. The Biden administration is considering tapping a little-used emergency diesel fuel reserve to mitigate the supply crunch amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a White House official.
The U.S. was experiencing some of the highest inflation in its history.
As with bodily atherosclerosis, curing our economic condition may require lifestyle modifications. But in one sense, it will be even worse: We’re all going to get the cure whether we want it or not. We’ll get its side effects, too… and you can bet there will be many.
Soaring commodity prices have helped drive inflation to 8.5%, by far the highest level in the last few decades.
Energy
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Global Commodity Shock Enters Next Phase With Recession Test
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Treasury Snapshot: 10 Yr at 3.09%
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 23, 2022, at 3.09%, the 2-year note ended at 3.01%, and the 30-year at 3.21%.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
20 Stocks Subscribers Asked To Have Analyzed
In this video I cover 20 stocks requested by subscribers.
Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Tesla Said Readying Its China Factory for Even Greater Volumes
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
Cracking and Pivoting
The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Global Food Inflation Gets Reprieve as Wheat and Oilseeds Tumble
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Why Insiders Are Bullish When Nobody Else Is
Crypto meltdowns. Tech implosions. The biggest rate hike in decades.
Credit Cards at 20%, Mortgages Near 6%: The Fed's Rate Hikes Are Already Having an Impact
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Traders Weigh Monetary Tightening
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
The US Is Depleting Its Strategic Petroleum Reserve Faster Than It Looks
The US has become the world's oil barrel of last resort, single handedly keeping prices in the energy market from exploding even higher by selling a large chunk of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
ESG Investment Cools as the Sector’s Notoriety Grows
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
The Bear Is Here
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
Closer Look: Postcard from Mexico
Mexico was the best-performing Latin American market in 2021 and our recent trip reinforced the reasons to remain bullish.
The Big Four: May Real Retail Sales Down 1.2%
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC at $120
As of June 13, the price of Regular and Premium were up 13 cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.43 and Georgia has the cheapest at $4.47. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 120.93 and is up 2.1% from last week.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Tantrum Rip
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Red-Hot Lithium Boom Pits Wall Street Against the Wonks
There’s a fight brewing in the lithium market, after a controversial forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts set off a backlash among some of the industry’s most prominent experts.
Global Stock Rout Prompts Call for Back-to-Basics Investing
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
Components of the CPI: May
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Semiconductors: A Less Cyclical Future
The proliferation of semiconductors throughout our economy may drive more durable, less cyclical demand and earnings.
Oil Extends Losses Near $118 as Global Market Selloff Deepens
Oil extended losses for a third session as the prospect of further monetary tightening to combat surging US inflation sent global markets spiraling lower.
We’re Living in a Material World
Madonna was right. That iPhone on which you may be reading this article is far less important to society than the materials – like steel and plastic – that were used to build it.
I’m Buying Another Dirt-Cheap Energy Stock
Energy has been on quite a run.
It’s Warren Buffett Versus Big Tech in Iowa’s Latest Wind-Farm Debate
Google, Facebook and Microsoft Corp. — three of the world’s biggest corporate buyers of clean power — are sounding the alarm that a nearly $4 billion, Warren Buffett-backed renewable-energy project proposed in Iowa isn’t necessarily in the best interest of customers, including them.
It’s Time to Get Biofuels Out of Your Gas Tank
The global trade in the cheapest foods is grinding to a halt.
Are We Headed for Recession? Gold and Bitcoin Could Offer Some Cover
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
US Inflation Quickens to 40-Year High, Pressuring Fed and Biden
US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.
Consumer Price Index: May Headline at 8.58%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.
Why Inflation Is Hitting American Households Like Never Before
Economists like to strip food and energy out of their inflation calculations. They’re too volatile to be meaningful, they say. But for everyday Americans coping with exploding prices, those items are pretty much all they care about right now.
Druckenmiller Warns ‘Bear Market Has a Ways to Run’ as Fed Hikes Rates
Stanley Druckenmiller has a warning for Wall Street: The sharp decline in the stock market isn’t over just yet.
Does This CDO Come in Green? With ESG Everywhere, Buyers Beware
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
Today's Options Market Update
Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.
Stock Prices Follow Fundamentals In The Long Run
Most investors take their cue from stock price volatility.
Divergences in the Energy Patch
Crude oil and energy equities have been on a tear for the last two years.
Gundlach: Oil Could Hit $150 This Summer
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
Markets Primed To Be Hawkish On Rates
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
Saudi Arabia Is Swinging Again – But for How Long?
The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role.
Bank Of Canada Lifts Rates By 50 Basis Points Again. Is an Even Steeper Increase in the Cards?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
Schwab Market Update: Stocks Lower as Volatility Continues
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: May Employment
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May saw 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 325K jobs gained.
What a Stock-Price Divergence Reveals About Climate Policy and Risk
Welcome to the endless cycle of debate over whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of choice will be the much-needed push to jumpstart climate policy around the world. It splits neatly between so-called activists focused on the “should” or “ought” versus the often self-styled realists espousing “careful,” “balanced” views.
Consumers Are Losers in a Booming Industrial Economy
Reasons to worry about a recession are piling up: the Federal Reserve's inflation fight, a slowing housing market, warnings from retailers and venture capitalists and a smattering of layoff announcements.
Recession Talk Is Exaggerated
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
The Upside to Record High Gas Prices
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
No Soft Landings
The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.
FOMC Inflation Test Coming
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
How to Push Wall Street to Ditch Fossil Fuels for Clean Energy
It will cost more than the gross domestic product of the entire world to rewire the global economy to run on clean energy.
Chart of the Week - Green Boom & Bust
This commentary provides a look at what we covered in the latest Weekly Insights report. The Weekly Insights Report is part of our entry-level service: presenting some of the key findings from our institutional research service.
Stock Market Metaverse
Virtual reality is not reality!
These Are the Batteries We Need to Ease the Power Crunch
The world is struggling with simultaneous energy and climate crises. To solve the first could require undoing all the progress made toward greener power and cleaner air. But it doesn’t have to be that way.
May Markit Manufacturing: Growth Slows
The May US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.0, down 2.2 from the final April figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Markets Seek Direction, Hope For Soft Landing
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
Zombie Firms Face Slow Death in US as Era of Easy Credit Ends
They are creations of easy credit, beneficiaries of central bank largesse. And now that the era of unconventional monetary policy is over, they’re facing a challenge like never before.
Treasuries Slide as Inflation Concerns Keep Rate-Hike Bets Alive
Treasuries extended their slump in New York, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up by the most in more than three weeks, as renewed inflation concerns and economic data supported expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes in coming months.
High Inflation May Already Be Behind Us
High inflation has captured the headlines as of late particularly as CPI recently hit the highest levels since 1981.
3 Airline Stocks to Consider as We Head into the Busy Summer Travel Season
Summer is right around the corner, and traditionally that’s when families pack their bags and get away for a well-deserved vacation. Since this is the first summer travel season in three years that feels like the before times, airlines and airports are bracing for what is expected to be a particularly busy three months.
Rock and a Hard Place
It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy.
Texas Is Now Home To More Fortune 500 Companies Than Any Other State, And I’m Not Surprised
Texas now leads the nation in the number of Fortune 500 companies that are headquartered in the state.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in April
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in April rose 0.52% and is up 8.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.27%. The real number is up 2.0% year-over-year. October through March revisions were made.
Six Reasons Inflation is So High
The war in Ukraine will pour more gasoline on the already raging inflationary fire, threatening to send the global economy into stagflation. Stagflation is a slowdown of economic activity caused by inflation.
Looking to the Futures: Natural Gas at New Highs
Low inventories drove natural gas prices to their highest level since 2008, while above normal temperatures are putting additional stress on natural gas supply.
Supply Woes Raise Recession Risk as Fed Rejects Inflation Nuance
Central bankers can’t drill for oil, grow more crops or repair global supply chains. That means the only quick fix available to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues for cooling the fastest inflation in four decades may be raising interest rates so much that they crash the economy into recession.
SEC to Crack Down on Misleading ESG Claims With Fund Rules
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is taking its biggest step yet to stop money managers from misleading investors when they claim their funds are focused on environmental, social or governance issues.
Inflation Forces Desperate Leaders to Try and Soften the Blow
The price of foods, fuels and other essential items are spiraling ever upward as Russia’s war on Ukraine compounds supply-chain woes stemming from the pandemic. Central banks may be in the driving seat when it comes to tackling inflation, but it’s governments that face the fallout and so are compelled to act.
Schwab Market Update: Markets See Pressure Amid Disappointing Data
U.S. equities are trading lower in afternoon action with the markets unable to extend yesterday's solid gains.
The Markets Are Telling Us…
The future is always unknown.
Russian Port Sieges ‘Declaration of War,’ UN Says
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Drilling Down: Oil Production Scenarios Across Countries
With economies scrambling for alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers perspective on single-country portfolio exposure to other world oil producers.
Today's Options Market Update
Stocks start the week higher following recent bearishness.
Grantham and Dalio: The Equity Bubble is Bursting and Stagflation Awaits
Two of the world’s most respected investors, Jeremy Grantham and Ray Dalio, offered identical warnings: The bubble in U.S. equities is unwinding, and the economy is headed for stagflation.
Corporate Earnings Go From Savior to Nemesis for Stocks
Some 162 companies in the S&P 500 Index received target price reductions Thursday compared with only 62 increases, according to Bloomberg data. The difference marked one of the sharpest swings in analyst sentiment in the 11 years of the series.
Oil Gains on Tight Fuel Supplies While Recession Fears Grow
The rise in energy costs has contributed to rampant inflation, prompting central banks to raise rates and stoking investor concern growth will slow. The Biden administration is considering tapping a little-used emergency diesel fuel reserve to mitigate the supply crunch amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a White House official.
Which Investments Worked 40 Years Ago When Inflation Was This High?
The U.S. was experiencing some of the highest inflation in its history.
Hardening of the Economies
As with bodily atherosclerosis, curing our economic condition may require lifestyle modifications. But in one sense, it will be even worse: We’re all going to get the cure whether we want it or not. We’ll get its side effects, too… and you can bet there will be many.
Who Needs Tips When You’ve Got Friends Like This?
Soaring commodity prices have helped drive inflation to 8.5%, by far the highest level in the last few decades.