Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes Initial Jobless Claims through 6/18.
This morning's release of the May New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 5696K, up 10.7% month-over-month from a revised 629K in April. The Investing.com forecast was for 588K. The median home price is now at $449K.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 23, 2022, at 3.09%, the 2-year note ended at 3.01%, and the 30-year at 3.21%.
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Free consulting is when you provide information and education to prove you know your stuff.
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 229K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 227K.
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
There is no Hall of Fame for single parents. There should be. The challenges of being a single parent are monumental.
Elon Musk confirmed the salaried workforce at Tesla Inc. would be cut by about 10% over the next three months.
US banking giants are poised to return $80 billion to shareholders after this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, less than last year’s elevated level that followed a pandemic-driven buyback pause.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.01 in May from +0.40 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in May, and two categories deteriorated from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.20 in May from +0.40 in April
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement of a 75-basis-point (bp) rate hike on June 15 revealed a shift in the Fed’s thinking.
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
The one speed bump advisors keep tripping over is that, well, people are funny about their money.
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
May's ZHVI came in at $349,816, up 1.5% from the previous month and up 20.7% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.85% MoM and 14.8% YoY.
Applications for US unemployment insurance were little changed last week, suggesting the labor market remains exceptionally tight.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) today, the most at any meeting since 1994 and exactly the move Chairman Jerome Powell was dismissive about in early May after the last meeting.
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.549M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.701M and a 14.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.810M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.695M was down 7% from the April reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.785M.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -3.3, down 5.9 from last month's 2.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 5.6, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at -6.8, down from the previous month's 2.5.
The better ARK performed, the more money flowed into its main ETF, ARKK. It used this money to buy more sci-fi ARKK stocks, pushing up the prices of its holdings. This created a vicious cycle that has now reversed.
Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting provides the clearest sign yet that the central bank is treating inflation as a national emergency, with markets expecting a 0.75% interest-rate increase.
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
After months of hand-wringing, U.S. indexes are now in bear-market territory across the board, down 20% from their most recent highs.
Over the last year, we’ve experienced heightened macroeconomic uncertainty with several events impacting society and financial markets.
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
US retail sales fell in May for the first time in five months, restrained by a plunge in auto purchases and other big-ticket items, suggesting moderating demand for goods amid decades-high inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who’s carefully telegraphed interest rate hikes over four years, looks likely to abandon gradualism and move more forcefully to stamp out inflation along with growing concerns that it will persist.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -0.27% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.52% MoM.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -1.2 was an increase of 10.4 from the previous month's -11.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 3.0.
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
“This market has a 1929 like feeling....”
As of June 13, the price of Regular and Premium were up 13 cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.43 and Georgia has the cheapest at $4.47. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 120.93 and is up 2.1% from last week.
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
This morning's release of the May Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was up 1.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.8% change last month. It is at 16.4% year-over-year, up from a 15.5% increase last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.
Social Security has a problem.
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
The proliferation of semiconductors throughout our economy may drive more durable, less cyclical demand and earnings.
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
It's been a tough job market for much of the past 20 years, making a grim landscape for workers and contributing to a world of haves and have-nots. Now the have-nots are finally getting their shot.
According to a recent survey, a majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats believe the US is in a recession. The question is how seriously to take their complaints.
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
I have been doing this long enough to know that the economy is a complex, self-adjusting mechanism, and thus the grim picture I have painted in this and previous articles may not play out.
US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.
When will the bear market end?
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen rejected the idea that corporate greed is causing the US inflation surge, differing with fellow Democrats who have accused big businesses of price gouging.
Wall Street is pounding the table on the next big thing in technology, predicting the metaverse could be a $13 trillion industry by the end of the decade.
Shanghai, the Chinese commercial hub with 26 million residents, ended its two-month citywide pandemic lockdown last week, a sign that the world’s second largest economy may be ready to return to business-as-usual.
Go around the world in one blog post; Loomis Sayles' Macro Strategies Group shares a visual snapshot of its GDP growth expectations for the months ahead.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 390K.
Investor sentiment expert Peter Atwater believes the bear market is only just beginning.
As corporate leaders increase their grim pronouncements about the future, there are still market economists who see stocks heading higher in the second half of this year and who say the US could sidestep a recession.
Consumer confidence has tanked, with the University of Michigan’s widely followed sentiment index at its lowest since 2011. This is incongruous with the fact that the labor market is very hot.
Will the plight of consumers drag GDP lower in the second quarter, resulting in a recession?
Let's take a closer look at last week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
Japan zero-inflation mindset is no match for today's price pressures.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.
Academics argue that there are three proven factors of investing: Value, quality and momentum.
US workers can’t quit quitting.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
Market Indicators
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Remote Work Could Save Firms $206 Billion and Ease Pressure on the Fed
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way for Shareholder Payouts
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index Update
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes Initial Jobless Claims through 6/18.
New Home Sales Up 10.7% in May
This morning's release of the May New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 5696K, up 10.7% month-over-month from a revised 629K in April. The Investing.com forecast was for 588K. The median home price is now at $449K.
Treasury Snapshot: 10 Yr at 3.09%
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 23, 2022, at 3.09%, the 2-year note ended at 3.01%, and the 30-year at 3.21%.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Are You Doing Free Consulting?
Free consulting is when you provide information and education to prove you know your stuff.
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Further Slowing in June
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
What Biden Should (and Shouldn’t) Do About Inflation
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 2K
This morning's seasonally adjusted 229K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 227K.
NFIB Signals A Recession Is Coming…Again
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
Heating and Cooling
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
The Future of Female Financial Empowerment is Today
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
The US Economy Is Headed for a Hard Landing
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
CFNAI Components: Employment, Production, Consumption, Sales
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
Existing-Home Sales: Down 3.4% in May
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
Single Parents Deserve a Hall of Fame
There is no Hall of Fame for single parents. There should be. The challenges of being a single parent are monumental.
Elon Musk Says Tesla Job Cuts Will Reduce Workforce by 3.5%
Elon Musk confirmed the salaried workforce at Tesla Inc. would be cut by about 10% over the next three months.
Big Banks Led by JPMorgan Set to Return $80 Billion to Investors
US banking giants are poised to return $80 billion to shareholders after this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, less than last year’s elevated level that followed a pandemic-driven buyback pause.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth declined in May"
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.01 in May from +0.40 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in May, and two categories deteriorated from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.20 in May from +0.40 in April
“Economic Hurricane” – Hyperbole Or Real Possibility?
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
Playing Catch-Up: Takeaways from the June FOMC Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement of a 75-basis-point (bp) rate hike on June 15 revealed a shift in the Fed’s thinking.
How Venture Capital Thrives by Betting on Weirdness
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
Credit Cards at 20%, Mortgages Near 6%: The Fed's Rate Hikes Are Already Having an Impact
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
An Active Week For Central Banks
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
CB LEI: Falls Again in May
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
Dr. Cole Cash and the Next Generation
The one speed bump advisors keep tripping over is that, well, people are funny about their money.
World’s Central Banks Unleash Most Hawkish Campaign Since 1980s
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
Zillow Home Value Index: May Update
May's ZHVI came in at $349,816, up 1.5% from the previous month and up 20.7% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.85% MoM and 14.8% YoY.
US Jobless Claims Edge Lower, Reflecting Tight Labor Market
Applications for US unemployment insurance were little changed last week, suggesting the labor market remains exceptionally tight.
Fed Goes Bigger
The Federal Reserve raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) today, the most at any meeting since 1994 and exactly the move Chairman Jerome Powell was dismissive about in early May after the last meeting.
Consumer Spending Is Running Out Of Steam and the Market Isn’t Ready For It
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
New Residential Housing Starts Down 14% in May
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.549M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.701M and a 14.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.810M.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 14% from April
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.695M was down 7% from the April reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.785M.
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Activity Weakens in June
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -3.3, down 5.9 from last month's 2.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 5.6, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at -6.8, down from the previous month's 2.5.
ARKK Stocks Sunk
The better ARK performed, the more money flowed into its main ETF, ARKK. It used this money to buy more sci-fi ARKK stocks, pushing up the prices of its holdings. This created a vicious cycle that has now reversed.
Housing Market Cooldown Will Only Lead to More Dysfunction
Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting provides the clearest sign yet that the central bank is treating inflation as a national emergency, with markets expecting a 0.75% interest-rate increase.
The Big Four: May Real Retail Sales Down 1.2%
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
June Swoon: U.S. Stocks Slip Into Bear-market Territory As Inflation Concerns Rattle Investors
After months of hand-wringing, U.S. indexes are now in bear-market territory across the board, down 20% from their most recent highs.
The State of Sustainable Investing
Over the last year, we’ve experienced heightened macroeconomic uncertainty with several events impacting society and financial markets.
Will the Fed’s Third Mandate Derail Markets?
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
US Retail Sales Post First Drop in Five Months as Auto Purchases Plunge
US retail sales fell in May for the first time in five months, restrained by a plunge in auto purchases and other big-ticket items, suggesting moderating demand for goods amid decades-high inflation.
Fed Mulls ‘Game Changer’ to Jolt Inflation: Decision Day Guide
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who’s carefully telegraphed interest rate hikes over four years, looks likely to abandon gradualism and move more forcefully to stamp out inflation along with growing concerns that it will persist.
Retail Sales Down 0.3% in May, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -0.27% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.52% MoM.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Levels Off
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -1.2 was an increase of 10.4 from the previous month's -11.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 3.0.
The Future of Food is Technology
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Weekly Investment Strategy
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Americans Are Building Vacation-Home Empires With Easy-Money Loans
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Is the Real Economy as Weak as Markets?
“This market has a 1929 like feeling....”
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC at $120
As of June 13, the price of Regular and Premium were up 13 cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.43 and Georgia has the cheapest at $4.47. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 120.93 and is up 2.1% from last week.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Mostly Unchanged in May, Inventory, Inflation, Problematic
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
May Producer Price Index: Final Demand Up 10.8% YoY
This morning's release of the May Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was up 1.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.8% change last month. It is at 16.4% year-over-year, up from a 15.5% increase last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
Components of the CPI: May
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Market Cap to GDP: May Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.
Social Security: Whistling Past The $96 Trillion Graveyard
Social Security has a problem.
May Inflation: The Components
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
Semiconductors: A Less Cyclical Future
The proliferation of semiconductors throughout our economy may drive more durable, less cyclical demand and earnings.
FOMC Preview
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
Never Mind, Harvard, Job Seekers Will Do Just Fine Without You
It's been a tough job market for much of the past 20 years, making a grim landscape for workers and contributing to a world of haves and have-nots. Now the have-nots are finally getting their shot.
Politics Have Distorted Americans’ Views of the Economy
According to a recent survey, a majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats believe the US is in a recession. The question is how seriously to take their complaints.
Are We Headed for Recession? Gold and Bitcoin Could Offer Some Cover
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
Stagflation May Be Our Next Stop (but that is not what I am worried about)
I have been doing this long enough to know that the economy is a complex, self-adjusting mechanism, and thus the grim picture I have painted in this and previous articles may not play out.
US Inflation Quickens to 40-Year High, Pressuring Fed and Biden
US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.
Consumer Price Index: May Headline at 8.58%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.
When Will This Bear Market End?
When will the bear market end?
Janet Yellen Rejects Idea Corporate Greed Is to Blame for Inflation
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen rejected the idea that corporate greed is causing the US inflation surge, differing with fellow Democrats who have accused big businesses of price gouging.
As Meta Ditches FB Ticker, Investors Shun Metaverse
Wall Street is pounding the table on the next big thing in technology, predicting the metaverse could be a $13 trillion industry by the end of the decade.
Global Luxury Sales Expected To Recover As Shanghai Ends Lockdown
Shanghai, the Chinese commercial hub with 26 million residents, ended its two-month citywide pandemic lockdown last week, a sign that the world’s second largest economy may be ready to return to business-as-usual.
Global GDP Themes and Forecasts (Infographic)
Go around the world in one blog post; Loomis Sayles' Macro Strategies Group shares a visual snapshot of its GDP growth expectations for the months ahead.
U.S. Workforce: May 2022 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 390K.
Have We Kicked the Can to the End of the Road?
Investor sentiment expert Peter Atwater believes the bear market is only just beginning.
Market Optimists Make the Case That 2022 Will End on High Note
As corporate leaders increase their grim pronouncements about the future, there are still market economists who see stocks heading higher in the second half of this year and who say the US could sidestep a recession.
Inflation's 'Fun' Period Was Way Too Brief
Consumer confidence has tanked, with the University of Michigan’s widely followed sentiment index at its lowest since 2011. This is incongruous with the fact that the labor market is very hot.
Consumer Weakness Signals a Recession
Will the plight of consumers drag GDP lower in the second quarter, resulting in a recession?
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a closer look at last week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Gundlach: Oil Could Hit $150 This Summer
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
Markets Primed To Be Hawkish On Rates
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
Japan Finally Gets Some Inflation
Japan zero-inflation mindset is no match for today's price pressures.
May 2022: Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.
When Quality Fails
Academics argue that there are three proven factors of investing: Value, quality and momentum.
People Keep Quitting Their Jobs Even as Recession Fears Mount
US workers can’t quit quitting.
Bank Of Canada Lifts Rates By 50 Basis Points Again. Is an Even Steeper Increase in the Cards?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.