Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 23, 2022, at 3.09%, the 2-year note ended at 3.01%, and the 30-year at 3.21%.
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports raising interest rates by 75 basis points again in July and following that with a few more half-point hikes.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Register today to join the Delaware Funds by Macquarie® Fixed Income team, as they discuss credit market valuations, the current market environment, their outlook for the remainder of 2022, and how to find value, specifically in high yield securities including bank loans. The discussion will include an analysis of credit fundamentals and technicals, how the US Federal Reserve is impacting credit markets, and how to look for attractive valuations.
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a fourth month in May, receding to the lowest level in nearly two years and underscoring how high prices and a surge in mortgage rates have stifled demand.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
The yield of the U.S. high yield (HY) market, currently at 8.4%, has risen by over 420 basis points since the start of the year.
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
Stocks struggled again this past week with the S&P 500 falling -5.79% for the week and the S&P 500 has now lost ground in 10 of the last 11 weeks, falling -19.16%, which is very unusual.
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
On the edges of US Sun Belt suburbia, the wait lists for new houses are gone. And homebuilders are doing something they haven’t done in years: slashing prices.
Electric-vehicle prices are going up at a dizzying pace these days.
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.
An ETF issuer is following in Cathie Wood’s footsteps with a new innovation-themed fund, despite the fact that her flagship ETF tumbled 61% this year.
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
The US has become the world's oil barrel of last resort, single handedly keeping prices in the energy market from exploding even higher by selling a large chunk of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
While hedge funds were busy bailing from stocks at a record pace as the S&P 500 plunged into a bear market, Corporate America was furiously buying.
The equity-linked debt of some of the pandemic’s darlings has plunged to record lows and is now considered distressed.
Applications for US unemployment insurance were little changed last week, suggesting the labor market remains exceptionally tight.
Investors are terrified.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) today, the most at any meeting since 1994 and exactly the move Chairman Jerome Powell was dismissive about in early May after the last meeting.
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
The better ARK performed, the more money flowed into its main ETF, ARKK. It used this money to buy more sci-fi ARKK stocks, pushing up the prices of its holdings. This created a vicious cycle that has now reversed.
Late last year, investors who were clinging to the hope that inflation might be temporary took solace in the fact that real Treasury yields remained negative, a sign that bond investors might not be that worried about inflation.
Despite a lot of confident predictions, nobody knows what will happen at the Federal Reserve Wednesday, never mind what the impact will be on markets.
With stocks down around 20% year-to-date, it is important for investors to know what kind of bear they are dealing with.
On June 7, Bob was in Las Vegas at the AICPA Engage conference, where he moderated a panel discussion.
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
US retail sales fell in May for the first time in five months, restrained by a plunge in auto purchases and other big-ticket items, suggesting moderating demand for goods amid decades-high inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who’s carefully telegraphed interest rate hikes over four years, looks likely to abandon gradualism and move more forcefully to stamp out inflation along with growing concerns that it will persist.
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
The world’s biggest technology stocks are crumbling on Monday as broad markets enter into bear market territory amid fears the Federal Reserve will send the US economy into recession.
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Gold fell after high producer prices exceeded market expectations, reinforcing concerns of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy stance to combat stubbornly high inflation.
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
As proxy season comes to a close, investors and advisors have grappled with company stewardship on a wide variety of issues. But what’s the best way to get a company to listen? Is divestment the way to go? Or must you engage with a company? And how do investors in ETFs and mutual funds make sure their voices are heard at the asset managers they invest with?
Engine No. 1 focuses on engaging with companies constructively to make sure they are taking the costs they impose on society and other stakeholders into account. It operates on the belief that climate and social concerns are economic issues and companies that fail to address them will underperform for the long term.
With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.
All eyes will be on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday when it announces how much it's going to raise short-term rates, its new projections for the economy and short-term rates for the next few years, as well as Chairman Powell's press conference.
Multi-asset strategies have caught the eye of market participants seeking pre-packaged solutions to diversification. Whereas many of these strategies are becoming increasingly complex—with black-box allocation algorithms, multiple signals, and 10 or more components—the S&P Target Risk Indices offer a more transparent approach.
Read on to explore:
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
Investors are a fickle bunch. They love owning stocks when the market goes up. It feels great! So great, in fact, that pesky details like nosebleed valuations or a lack of profitability are easily overlooked. But the romance never lasts.
Fixed Income
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Remote Work Could Save Firms $206 Billion and Ease Pressure on the Fed
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Assessing Inflation’s Effects Across Emerging Markets
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Treasury Snapshot: 10 Yr at 3.09%
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 23, 2022, at 3.09%, the 2-year note ended at 3.01%, and the 30-year at 3.21%.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Further Slowing in June
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Fed’s Bowman Backs Raising Rates 75 Basis Points in July
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports raising interest rates by 75 basis points again in July and following that with a few more half-point hikes.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Stocks Are Losing the Race With Bonds in Era of Tightening Fed
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
NFIB Signals A Recession Is Coming…Again
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
Heating and Cooling
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
Reaching for Resilience
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Credit in Focus: Finding Value in High Yield and Bank Loans
Register today to join the Delaware Funds by Macquarie® Fixed Income team, as they discuss credit market valuations, the current market environment, their outlook for the remainder of 2022, and how to find value, specifically in high yield securities including bank loans. The discussion will include an analysis of credit fundamentals and technicals, how the US Federal Reserve is impacting credit markets, and how to look for attractive valuations.
Don’t Cry for the Most Wealthy
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
Sales of Previously Owned Homes Fall to an Almost Two-Year Low
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a fourth month in May, receding to the lowest level in nearly two years and underscoring how high prices and a surge in mortgage rates have stifled demand.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
The US Economy Is Headed for a Hard Landing
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
Inflation Ate Your Free Lunch, But You’re Still Better Off
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
What Does 8% Yield Pay For?
The yield of the U.S. high yield (HY) market, currently at 8.4%, has risen by over 420 basis points since the start of the year.
Lifetime Income Fees vs. Costs: Look Beneath the Tip of the Iceberg
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
Reg BI’s Unhappy Second Birthday
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
Respect the Bear
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Five Touchpoints to Build Family Relationships
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 3.4% in May
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
Big, Boxy Apartment Buildings Are Multiplying Faster Than Ever
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The Fixed Income Water is Getting Warmer
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
“Economic Hurricane” – Hyperbole Or Real Possibility?
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
The Fed Capitulates
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
DMA Table Still Negative. But Erlanger Options Rank Showing Extreme Short Selling Indicating A Bounce In The Offing
Stocks struggled again this past week with the S&P 500 falling -5.79% for the week and the S&P 500 has now lost ground in 10 of the last 11 weeks, falling -19.16%, which is very unusual.
How Venture Capital Thrives by Betting on Weirdness
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
Credit Cards at 20%, Mortgages Near 6%: The Fed's Rate Hikes Are Already Having an Impact
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
Builders Are Slashing Prices to Sell Homes in Fast-Cooling US Markets
On the edges of US Sun Belt suburbia, the wait lists for new houses are gone. And homebuilders are doing something they haven’t done in years: slashing prices.
Inflation Turns EVs Into Luxury Items, Threatening Broader Electric Shift
Electric-vehicle prices are going up at a dizzying pace these days.
Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Traders Weigh Monetary Tightening
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
An Active Week For Central Banks
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
CB LEI: Falls Again in May
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
Elizabeth Holmes’ Lesson for Target-Date Funds
In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.
Cathie Wood’s ARKK Has Tumbled 61%, Yet Gets Another Copycat
An ETF issuer is following in Cathie Wood’s footsteps with a new innovation-themed fund, despite the fact that her flagship ETF tumbled 61% this year.
World’s Central Banks Unleash Most Hawkish Campaign Since 1980s
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
For All Their Worries, Investors Are Piling Into US Stocks
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
The US Is Depleting Its Strategic Petroleum Reserve Faster Than It Looks
The US has become the world's oil barrel of last resort, single handedly keeping prices in the energy market from exploding even higher by selling a large chunk of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
ESG Investment Cools as the Sector’s Notoriety Grows
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
The Bear Is Here
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
Goldman Buyback Desk Was Flooded With Orders During Stock Rout
While hedge funds were busy bailing from stocks at a record pace as the S&P 500 plunged into a bear market, Corporate America was furiously buying.
Tech Bear Market’s Latest Casualty Is Pandemic-Era Convertible Debt
The equity-linked debt of some of the pandemic’s darlings has plunged to record lows and is now considered distressed.
US Jobless Claims Edge Lower, Reflecting Tight Labor Market
Applications for US unemployment insurance were little changed last week, suggesting the labor market remains exceptionally tight.
Investors Are Terrified, So Why Aren’t They Selling?
Investors are terrified.
Fed Goes Bigger
The Federal Reserve raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) today, the most at any meeting since 1994 and exactly the move Chairman Jerome Powell was dismissive about in early May after the last meeting.
Crypto Market Outlook: Risk-Off
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
Bond Market Losses Just Beginning as Fed Sets Path to 4% Yields
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
Consumer Spending Is Running Out Of Steam and the Market Isn’t Ready For It
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
ARKK Stocks Sunk
The better ARK performed, the more money flowed into its main ETF, ARKK. It used this money to buy more sci-fi ARKK stocks, pushing up the prices of its holdings. This created a vicious cycle that has now reversed.
How Inflation Fuels Bargain Hunting
Late last year, investors who were clinging to the hope that inflation might be temporary took solace in the fact that real Treasury yields remained negative, a sign that bond investors might not be that worried about inflation.
Big Money in Stock Market Is In Mad Dash to Get Out of Fed’s Way
Despite a lot of confident predictions, nobody knows what will happen at the Federal Reserve Wednesday, never mind what the impact will be on markets.
Bear Watch
With stocks down around 20% year-to-date, it is important for investors to know what kind of bear they are dealing with.
A Bit About Bob
On June 7, Bob was in Las Vegas at the AICPA Engage conference, where he moderated a panel discussion.
Will the Fed’s Third Mandate Derail Markets?
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
US Retail Sales Post First Drop in Five Months as Auto Purchases Plunge
US retail sales fell in May for the first time in five months, restrained by a plunge in auto purchases and other big-ticket items, suggesting moderating demand for goods amid decades-high inflation.
Fed Mulls ‘Game Changer’ to Jolt Inflation: Decision Day Guide
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who’s carefully telegraphed interest rate hikes over four years, looks likely to abandon gradualism and move more forcefully to stamp out inflation along with growing concerns that it will persist.
The Future of Food is Technology
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Weekly Investment Strategy
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Big Tech’s Floor Collapses on Renewed Fears of Bigger Rate Hikes
The world’s biggest technology stocks are crumbling on Monday as broad markets enter into bear market territory amid fears the Federal Reserve will send the US economy into recession.
Americans Are Building Vacation-Home Empires With Easy-Money Loans
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Gold Drops as Traders Brace for Fed Hike Amid High US Inflation
Gold fell after high producer prices exceeded market expectations, reinforcing concerns of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy stance to combat stubbornly high inflation.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Inflation Risk: Persistent or Transitory is the Wrong Question
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Tantrum Rip
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Global Stock Rout Prompts Call for Back-to-Basics Investing
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Mostly Unchanged in May, Inventory, Inflation, Problematic
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
Engine No. 1 and Its Compelling Approach to ESG Investing
As proxy season comes to a close, investors and advisors have grappled with company stewardship on a wide variety of issues. But what’s the best way to get a company to listen? Is divestment the way to go? Or must you engage with a company? And how do investors in ETFs and mutual funds make sure their voices are heard at the asset managers they invest with?
Engine No. 1 focuses on engaging with companies constructively to make sure they are taking the costs they impose on society and other stakeholders into account. It operates on the belief that climate and social concerns are economic issues and companies that fail to address them will underperform for the long term.
Market Cap to GDP: May Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.
50 or More?
All eyes will be on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday when it announces how much it's going to raise short-term rates, its new projections for the economy and short-term rates for the next few years, as well as Chairman Powell's press conference.
A Streamlined Approach to Multi-Asset with the S&P Target Risk Indices
Multi-asset strategies have caught the eye of market participants seeking pre-packaged solutions to diversification. Whereas many of these strategies are becoming increasingly complex—with black-box allocation algorithms, multiple signals, and 10 or more components—the S&P Target Risk Indices offer a more transparent approach.
Read on to explore:
FOMC Preview
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
Investor Behavior: A Tragic Love Story
Investors are a fickle bunch. They love owning stocks when the market goes up. It feels great! So great, in fact, that pesky details like nosebleed valuations or a lack of profitability are easily overlooked. But the romance never lasts.