Fixed Income

GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast for July 31, 2026.

With the US fiscal year 2027 (FY27) state budget season now largely complete, several important trends have emerged. Most states and local governments adopted their budgets without major delays or political impasses, an encouraging sign for two important credit considerations: governance and financial management.

BDC bonds have recovered most of their underperformance while equities continue to lag, suggesting investors are demanding a higher risk premium to compensate for uncertainty around portfolio valuations.

Gold’s outlook has brightened considerably following its first-half correction. Spot prices have rebounded to flirt with $4,400 per ounce, supported by renewed central-bank buying, softer economic data, and diminished expectations for further Fed tightening.

Equity markets continued to push higher this week, with nearly all major indices in the U.S. and abroad closing near or at record highs. While longer-term interest rates continued to drift higher, shorter-term interest rates moved lower as investors pushed out both the timing and magnitude of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The biggest political news of recent months is the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America. We suppose this started in New York City, with the election of Mayor Zohran Mamdani, but it has spread to Michigan and other states.

The market continues to impress, with the S&P 500 reaching another record high despite a surprisingly weak retail sales report. I had to look twice at the numbers because the weakness was broad, including the important control group, with the previous month also revised slightly lower.

Governments can print money, but they cannot print credibility. Once investors begin to question a country's fiscal trajectory, borrowing costs rise, confidence erodes, and policy choices become increasingly constrained. The age of cheap debt allowed many governments to overlook these limits. Today, they are becoming harder to escape.

Discounted municipal bonds could expose you to unexpected taxes. Here's what to know before you buy.

Small-cap equities are winning out against their large-cap counterparts in a classic David versus Goliath ETF battle. After years of mega-cap technology dominance, small-cap equities have delivered investors a historic first half of 2026.

“Think Like An Investor” is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run. Learning to think like an investor rather than a speculator is not a personality quirk or a matter of taste. It is the entire game, and the good news is that it is a skill you can actually build, starting today.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: it’s not the political party that matters, but the policies. Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.

Global equity markets continued their strong summer run this week, supported by what has been an exceptionally strong second-quarter earnings season.

For over two decades, US equities have been the global market leader, outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600 by an astonishing approximately 530%. While Europe’s recent comeback has narrowed the gap, the forces underpinning US leadership remain firmly intact. Below, we revisit the case for US versus European equities and reiterate why we maintain our preference for US equities.

The first step in recovery is recognizing a problem. For decades, some U.S. states have had problems with indebtedness. But as we take stock of state finances today, we see many examples of recovery.

This bargain-hunting environment sets up a stark divide for upcoming earnings. Walmart (WMT) remains uniquely positioned as its dominant grocery business continues to draw trade-down traffic from higher-income households, whereas Target (TGT) faces headwinds due to its heavier mix of discretionary home and apparel goods.

For savers, it drives them to seek bigger and bigger returns to keep up with the government’s monetary devaluation. At first, a simple savings account with a relatively low yield will do the trick. But as the dollar loses purchasing power, you need a better return to keep up. So, maybe you stick your money in a higher-interest-yielding CD.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.

So let’s do the work the timeline skips, starting with separating what actually happened from what the narrative needs you to believe. Then we’ll ask the only question that pays: should any of it change how you’re positioned this morning?

We are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. This has to end, and I think it will do so in the event I’ve called The Great Reset.

Investors are remaining cautious about the markets, according to our U.S. stocks and economy report this month. Our report notes that while investors have continued to pile into the market via strong ETF flows and high margin debt balances, they've done so reluctantly with more subdued attitudes.

Recent trends are sending confusing signals about the health of the U.S. labor market. Since late 2025, the employment/population ratio has moved lower even as the unemployment rate has declined.

Whether fixed income investors are focused on locking in yield, managing duration risk, or building resilient core portfolios, bond ETFs have been seeing elevated demand this year.

The arrival of the new academic year prompted me to revisit a piece that we wrote in 2023, which detailed the damage that the pandemic had done to young students. In the years immediately following COVID-19, achievement scores skidded, suggesting that online learning was a poor substitute for time in the classroom.

In 3Q26, global fixed-income markets continue to navigate a complex backdrop as resilient growth, elevated inflation, hawkish central-bank pricing and the AI infrastructure buildout intersect. Growth remains supported by the US consumer, fiscal spending in Europe and AI-related capital investment, while inflation is expected to moderate through 2026 and into 2027.

Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.

For most high-net-worth investors, the bond sleeve of a portfolio isn't there to generate eye-popping returns or provide cocktail party fodder. Its job is much more mainstream: support a targeted lifestyle, cover tax bills, dampen equity market volatility, and provide "dry powder" when the world turns sideways.

The S&P 500 towed an anchor for much of the summer as a historic momentum and leverage unwind under the surface dragged on the equity benchmark before breaking out to fresh records last week.

Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon examines the myth that rate hikes are bad news for US small-cap returns—and finds that history tells a different story.

While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.

The release of ChatGPT in 2022 ushered in the AI era. Since then, technology stocks have emerged as a key driver of market performance. The extraordinary gains have naturally sparked questions about whether the momentum can continue, particularly as technology companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure.

Life rarely stands still, and for families caring for a loved one with special needs, change can introduce both emotional and financial complexity. Marriage, divorce, the loss of a parent, an unexpected inheritance, or shifts in public policy may all significantly impact eligibility for benefits, long-term financial security, and family dynamics.

The fixed income landscape continues to offer real opportunity this year as well as persistent, events-driven uncertainty. Still, cutting through the headlines, investors can find major opportunities inside the portfolios and in adding new funds.

The risks of a rate hike have increased lately, but we don't believe we're there just yet. If the data changes—specifically if inflation comes in hotter-than-expected over the next few months—we'll likely change our view.

All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability. ​

Among the key benefits of the ETF wrapper is the wide range of tools it gives advisors and investors to build tailored fixed income portfolios. And given today’s complex rate and inflation environment, it certainly helps to have a wide range of options available.

There’s been no summer vacation for the bond market this year. It seems there’s a new headline every day that needs to be processed and responded to. In terms of Treasuries (UST), yields at the back-end of the curve have risen in notable fashion and have resulted in rates being at levels not seen in almost twenty years in some cases.

College planning begins long before college. Learn why welcoming a new child is the ideal time to build a strong financial foundation, explore education savings options and prepare for your family’s future.

Equities opened the week higher after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled on Monday morning that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within a day or two.

Discover the top ETF launches of summer 2026, including new funds from iShares, Amplify, and Defiance targeting crypto, AI, and core equity.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is continuing its aggressive expansion into active, high-yielding options strategies with a definitive agreement to acquire NEOS Investments. Similar to Innovator Capital Management, another recent acquisition, NEOS has established a firm leadership position in the ETF space.

The market was jolted by a much weaker-than-expected employment report, sending Treasury yields sharply lower as investors quickly reduced the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike. At first glance, the payroll number looked alarming, particularly when combined with sizable downward revisions to prior months and unexpectedly soft wage growth.

Municipals posted their weakest July return in more than two decades. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index returned -1.85%, underperforming most investment-grade fixed-income sectors and marking just the fifth negative July return over the past 30 years.

Stocks moved higher as stronger economic data, solid corporate earnings and easing geopolitical concerns helped support investor optimism.