A Brief Chronicle of the Federal Reserve’s First Balance Sheet Contraction
If we follow the threads underlying inflation over the past year to their earliest beginnings, they run straight through the fog of pandemic, quickly pass by the financial crisis in 2008, and wind their way past the Great Inflation of the 1970s and the Fed-Treasury Accord twenty years before that, and stretch all the way back to the time when Captain Harry S. Truman, only recently returned from commanding an artillery battery during the Great War, opened Truman & Jacobson on the ground floor of the Glennon Hotel at 104 West 12th Street, in Kansas City, Missouri.
Powell Says Fed Will ‘Keep Pushing’ Until Inflation Comes Down
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his most hawkish remarks to date, said the US central bank will keep raising interest rates until there is “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is in retreat.
Bond Traders Reel as Inflation Hits World’s Emerging Local Debt
Local-currency debt from developing nations -- which is far more sensitive to a country’s domestic inflationary pressures than dollar denominated equivalents -- has slumped almost 9% this year, the most since at least 2008, according to a Bloomberg index.
The Euro Will Survive Falling Below Parity With the Dollar
The euro hasn’t been this cheap against the dollar for almost two decades, but it can get cheaper still. The tail risk of Russian gas and oil being suddenly shut off, most likely plunging the European continent into a sharp recession, is too unpredictable for investors to confidently bet on a rebound any time soon.
Stagflation Risks Are Again Clouding a Global Market Rebound
Equities reversed course and came off highs after Chinese economic data released Monday showed a sharp contraction as Covid lockdowns stung. Wheat jumped after India restricted exports, adding to broader commodity price pressure.
World Markets Update: May 16, 2022
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through May 16, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD gain of 1.09%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in second with a loss of 7.80% and India's BSE SENSEX is in third with a loss of 9.06%. Coming in last is our own S&P 500 with a loss of 15.91% YTD.
Dollar’s Strength Pushes World Economy Deeper Into Slowdown
The soaring dollar is propelling the global economy deeper into a synchronized slowdown by driving up borrowing costs and stoking financial-market volatility -- and there’s little respite on the horizon.
Age of Inflation in US Will Last Much Longer Than Pandemic Spike
Deep-seated trends in trade and demographics helped keep inflation in a comfort zone for decades, but both are now pushing in the opposite direction. Globalization was fraying even before pandemic and war made things worse. Growth in the world’s labor force has slowed.
The Fed Sure Sounds as If It Expects a Recession
In just more than a week, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has gone from expressing confidence that policy makers will be able to avoid pushing the economy into a recession while rapidly raising interest rates to control inflation to remarking, as he did on Thursday, that a downturn is out of the central bank’s control.