Asian/European Markets

The U.S. debt cannot be paid, even in inflated dollars. Serious inflation is inevitable that will crash stock and bond markets, in addition to devaluing the dollar.

The Fed is at a crucial junction, according to Lacy Hunt. It has to contain inflation. If not, the stability of the U.S. economy over the longer term is seriously in doubt.

In 1995, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin asserted that a strong dollar is in the US national interest, a mantra repeated by each of his successors. They’re partially correct since the effects of the robust buck, which has soared this year, help some while harming others.

The latest US inflation report should be a reality check for Wall Street, but many investors are still wearing rose-colored glasses. Bond yields ticked slightly higher Wednesday after the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose more than forecast last month, but they are still nowhere near reflecting the monetary policy path it may take to rein in inflation.

As markets slumped in unison on Thursday, traders pointed to the chaos in crypto as a focal point of their concern. Strategists are increasingly worried that small traders, already nursing losses from the meme stock craze, will be wiped out on their crypto holdings and sell everything else.

There was a time, some 12 years ago, when I bowed to no one in my enthusiasm for bonds. Longer-dated government debt yields had surged after the global financial crisis. Yet for various reasons, inflation was likely to remain subdued, I argued. US Treasuries and even German bunds yielded about 3.5% at the time. Although headline inflation waxed and waned, it consistently came in below forecasts for the next 10 years.

To achieve its mission of reducing inflation, the Fed will keep raising rates, according to Albert Edwards, and won’t stop before the S&P 500 hits 3,000.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has trumped all other assets this month, notching a 0.6% advance at a time when stocks and bonds are tumbling. Investors have poured cash into an exchange-traded fund tracking Treasury bills for five weeks, clocking up the biggest inflows since 2020.

Stock markets continued to sink following last week’s recession worries, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the threat to global growth from China’s continued Covid lockdowns. The fear could be seen across asset classes, as traders offloaded equities and other risk assets in favor of cash.

With the average U.S. mortgage rate above 5% and home prices at record highs, homeownership feels increasingly out of reach, particularly for young, first-time buyers. To make it work, some are renting out rooms or basements and using the extra income to help offset their costs.

U.S. investment-grade debt sales have missed Wall Street estimates for two consecutive weeks with issuers choosing to sit on the sidelines instead of braving volatile markets. Bond sales were expected to pick up this week amid a growing backlog, but seven potential issuers opted to stand down amid broad volatility on Monday.

Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q1 2022.

With volatile markets fraying investors’ nerves, companies are now paying the biggest premiums to sell new bonds since the height of the coronavirus pandemic two years ago.

U.S. Treasuries tumbled Monday, driving the yield on five-year notes to the highest level since September 2008 amid speculation persistent inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten policy more aggressively.

The ocean shipping industry, among the world’s biggest polluters, is asking a key regulator to overhaul its emissions directives so that all carriers are working off the same rulebook as they make the expensive changes needed to cut output of harmful carbons.

Consumers seem undaunted by higher prices of everything from luxury cars to beer, letting companies like Anheuser-Busch InBev NV and BMW AG boost profits despite economic threats ranging from inflation to war to China’s Covid flare-up.

ICYMI: In this roundup, we’re highlighting the five most popular pieces of content from the previous week.

Dutch power company TenneT Holding BV sold 3.85 billion euros ($4.06 billion) of green debt across four maturities Tuesday, to fund greener electricity grids across Europe. It’s the largest deal for the environmental debt from a company, topping previous efforts from Honda Motor Co. and Engie SA, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Milken Institute Global Conference continues in Beverly Hills, California, bringing together investors, dealmakers, power brokers and celebrities to discuss markets and megatrends. Academics, sports stars, entrepreneurs and politicians among the thousands coming to the Beverly Hilton for the event, which runs through Wednesday.

Whether it’s because of tight Covid restrictions, separation from family or the frustration of closed borders, a growing number of people living abroad have made the choice to move closer to home. In the process, they’re facing the reality of inflation and pandemic-related transportation snags, not to mention the possibility of lower-paying jobs and higher taxes in their new location.

There are no shortage of bears making similar claims these days. Between the Russia-Ukraine war, the aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, soaring inflation and Covid lockdowns in China, there are plenty things to worry about. The S&P 500 has already lost 12% this year, while the Nasdaq Composite cratered into a bear market after sliding more than 20% from its peak in November. Key bond benchmarks are down more than 10%.

The BOJ is trapped. It is conducting unlimited QE to keep rates low and weaken the yen, which promotes inflation.

With so many analysts, not to mention market pricing, having settled on a 50-basis-point interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve this week, it would be understandable to assume that it’s a “done deal” when it comes to what the central bank will announce at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday. The situation could not be further from the truth.

The U.S. economy will be in recession in the second half of this year, according to David Rosenberg. Equity Investors should brace for a 30% bear market decline.

In an ambitious new book, the economist Andrew Smithers rejects core “Newtonian” principles of economics, replacing them with radical departures from conventional wisdom. But as I will explain, some of Smithers’ theories fail meet the standard of empirical verification.

The U.S. stock market is very likely in a bear market that anticipates a recession will start later this year. This means the time is now to shift portfolios from risk-on mode to risk-off before the losses get even worse. But what worked in the past when hedging against a bear market may not work now, given the ever-changing economic dynamics. It’s also important not to fall for some old myths.

The Fed messed up. Big time. After almost 40 years of low, predictable price growth, inflation is back: 8.5% at last count and it may go higher still. Some of the inflation is related to pandemic re-opening, but some of it came from serious policy errors. Now the Federal Reserve faces some hard choices. It may even need to cause a recession to bring inflation back to manageable levels.

The green energy revolution is making greater progress than expected. Solar and wind power have seen exponential cost declines, and electric vehicles seem to be a market winner. That’s all good news, but improving green energy is not the same as addressing climate change. There is good chance that even optimistic projections for green energy will come true — and carbon emissions will continue to increase.

Big Tech founders like Mark Zuckerberg and Alphabet Inc.’s Sergey Brin and Larry Page have fashioned themselves as modern-day autocrats of business, thanks to the way they have structured their initial public offerings and voting shares over the past decade.

After hanging in the shadows for most of the pandemic, the billionaire investor and his deputies have been ramping up Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s acquisition machine -- snapping up shares of Occidental Petroleum Corp. and HP Inc. and striking an $11.6 billion deal to buy Alleghany Corp. The flurry of activity comes just as investors are set to flock to Omaha, Nebraska, for the conglomerate’s first in-person shareholder meeting since 2019.

In propping up Japan's economy and financial markets, its central bank indirectly provided liquidity to the world's financial markets. But the BOJ could unleash a liquidity vacuum felt around the world.

Few corners of the financial universe have been surrounded by as much marketing froth as ESG, which by some estimates represents more than $40 trillion in assets. According to Morningstar, genuine ESG funds held about $2.7 trillion in managed assets at the end of the fourth quarter.

Oil climbed as Chinese central bank assurances of economic support eased fears that a new round of virus lockdowns will crimp crude demand. Diesel markets also spiked amid a global clamor for supplies.