This week we take on the objection that scares people most: that AI, and the data centers that run it, are coming for their jobs. This one is different from the water and power arguments, because it isn't really a factual dispute so much as a forecast, and forecasts about technology and employment have a long, undistinguished history of being wrong in both directions.
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
Nvidia Corp. is not only tightening its grip on artificial intelligence, it’s also absorbing the companies fighting to keep the industry open and decentralized. On the same day the chip giant announced quarterly revenue that had doubled and would continue rising next year, sending its shares up 7%, news broke that it has reportedly agreed to spend $13 billion on Hugging Face, a platform for open-weight AI models.
When a driver sees an unfamiliar light on the dashboard, the hope is that it’s a false positive that will go away on its own. But a persistent warning must be addressed before it becomes a bigger problem. The global economy is moving forward with several warning lights flashing, and those signals are becoming harder to ignore.
For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.
Most residents of rich, Western countries have relatively high earnings, but many also feel they can’t afford a reasonable lifestyle. Americans, for example, are getting richer but also more unhappy. Meanwhile Eastern Europeans, not generally known for their cheery disposition, are most satisfied with their comparatively lower income.
Investors who focus only on tomorrow’s gold price may miss the larger purpose of owning precious metals. Gold and silver are not merely vehicles for chasing a rally. They are tools for preserving purchasing power during periods of fiscal and monetary instability.
High indebtedness has prompted a call for France to cancel part of its public liabilities. Ideas spread, so expect similarly unorthodox demands elsewhere as governments grapple with high debt, while political disruptors air increasingly unconventional policies. All those roads, however, lead to more inflation and the debauchment of financial assets.
A blockbuster outlook from chip darling Nvidia Corp. is providing a boost to tech stocks and lifting key equity indexes Thursday morning, adding to investor optimism about the AI cycle.
The bond market rarely dominates the financial headlines. But with a light economic data release schedule and earnings season largely in the rearview mirror, the bond market took center stage last week.
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
U.S. labor force participation is declining due to an aging population, slowing immigration, and other factors. This could impact economic growth and earnings moving forward.
In choppy waters, many novice ship passengers will experience sea sickness. The only sure remedy is to wait it out. Symptoms will pass, as will the rough waters.
The most durable assumption in global investing is also the most outdated: that the United States is fundamentally a consumption story and China is fundamentally a capital-expenditure story.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in August, falling 0.8 points to 89.4. The index was below the forecast of 90.3.
European equities have long been written off as the ultimate value trap — a sleepy, slow-growth market living in the shadow of Wall Street’s tech-fueled mega-rally. But a massive shift in market dynamics is unfolding across the Atlantic.
When a typical business finds its supply chain costs have risen, it will absorb the increase to keep its customers happy. Nvidia isn’t a typical business. It enjoys gross profit margins of 75% and commands between 70% and 90% of the global market for artificial-intelligence chips.
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief political advisor, once quipped that if he could be reincarnated he wanted to come back as the bond market because “You can intimidate everybody.”
Macro strategists and global portfolio managers have their hands full on this final week of August. As we said recently, this is no time to mail it in before Labor Day in the U.S. And for equity traders and bottom-up analysts, NVIDIA (NVDA) writes the storyline in the sessions ahead. The world's most valuable company reports Q2 results after the bell on Wednesday.
Kevin Warsh’s first major speech as chairman of the Federal Reserve has become an unexpected trial of his slimmed-down communications style.
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
Something strange has been happening in America lately. The Wall Street Journal says this is the summer when the U.S. became “a nation of Luddites.” The Economist calls it “the Summer of Ludd.”
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through August 24, 2026.
Amazon.com Inc.’s Andy Jassy has begun making an audacious boast during conference calls this year. Though his company remains a top Nvidia Corp. customer, it’s also one of the world’s largest makers of data center chips in its own right.
US stocks traded lower before the bell on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of economic data and important earnings from Nvidia Corp.
The debt problem is real. It just isn’t a bomb. As we’ve written before, the debt and deficit problem isn’t what you think. It’s a tax on future growth, collected slowly, and normal interest rates are simply the price of money doing its job, not the crisis the headlines keep selling.
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
On the back of the White House’s cryptocurrency confab, which brought together policymakers and leaders of the digital asset community, Bitcoin notched a double-digit gain over August 19-20 — a rally that pumped new life into the largest digital currency.
For 11 of the 12 years following the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. stocks beat international markets. But that trend has flipped: Over the past four years, international equities have taken the lead.
Artificial intelligence is the topic of the day. It seems everyone has an opinion but not much actual factual knowledge. I’ve been dragging emails and research into my AI folder for a very long time. Today (and next week) I review those emails, as we are going to look at the reasons there is so much opposition to AI data centers.
U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.
Gold climbed to the highest in three months as the US Treasury’s bold intervention to try to stem a damaging increase in borrowing costs revived investor fears about its fiscal burden.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are among the most optimistic about European stocks on the back of a robust corporate earnings outlook, a Bloomberg survey shows.
High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.
For many of the past several years, investor enthusiasm has been concentrated in a narrow group of AI-related and technology stocks. As liquidity conditions tighten and speculation begins to recede, broader market fundamentals are gaining importance.
There’s new life in the gold market, and that momentum could represent a buying opportunity for bullion-enthused investors seeking income. The NEOS Gold High Income ETF (IAUI) is ready to meet the moment.
Shares of Meta Platforms Inc. have been under pressure all year due to questions about its spending on artificial intelligence. But a trial accusing its social media platforms of targeting children goes beyond that, raising existential questions about the future of its core business.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s profit plunged more than 75% after the Chinese company ratcheted up quarterly capital spending to almost $10 billion, aiming to safeguard its position in a fiercely competitive global AI arena.
With a slew of unexpected maneuvers this year, Scott Bessent has emerged as the most interventionist Treasury secretary in financial markets in decades — putting his credibility on the line in an effort to quell a potentially damaging rise in US borrowing costs.
Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.
The deal follows similar moves elsewhere in the Gulf, including oil and gas pipeline transactions by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Saudi Aramco, as governments seek to bring in external capital without losing control of key assets. In these cases, investors obtained bridge financing from banks that were later refinanced by bonds.
BDC bonds have recovered most of their underperformance while equities continue to lag, suggesting investors are demanding a higher risk premium to compensate for uncertainty around portfolio valuations.
Gold’s outlook has brightened considerably following its first-half correction. Spot prices have rebounded to flirt with $4,400 per ounce, supported by renewed central-bank buying, softer economic data, and diminished expectations for further Fed tightening.
More than a decade ago, hundreds of US garage entrepreneurs were working on shoestring budgets to develop drones with dreams of scaling the new technology. Then China’s DJI introduced a small, inexpensive drone with a stable built-in camera.
America remains the best country in the world to get rich. Some see this as cause for celebration, while others view it as evidence of a broken capitalist system. As an economist, I am less interested in debating whether billionaires (or trillionaires) should exist than in asking what the alternative is.
Governments can print money, but they cannot print credibility. Once investors begin to question a country's fiscal trajectory, borrowing costs rise, confidence erodes, and policy choices become increasingly constrained. The age of cheap debt allowed many governments to overlook these limits. Today, they are becoming harder to escape.
Small-cap equities are winning out against their large-cap counterparts in a classic David versus Goliath ETF battle. After years of mega-cap technology dominance, small-cap equities have delivered investors a historic first half of 2026.
The yield on 30-year US Treasuries hit the highest in almost two decades, reflecting investor angst over surging government spending, a flood of long-dated bond sales and inflation that’s been stuck over the Federal Reserve’s target for the past five years.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: it’s not the political party that matters, but the policies. Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change.
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.
For over two decades, US equities have been the global market leader, outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600 by an astonishing approximately 530%. While Europe’s recent comeback has narrowed the gap, the forces underpinning US leadership remain firmly intact. Below, we revisit the case for US versus European equities and reiterate why we maintain our preference for US equities.
Hoisington Investment Management — managed by Hunt and Hoisington — sharply reduced its clients’ bond duration and put the proceeds in Treasury bills. That reversal of such long-held opinions deserves serious attention. I will summarize Hunt’s new views and some counterpoints to help you assess his new stance.
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
So let’s do the work the timeline skips, starting with separating what actually happened from what the narrative needs you to believe. Then we’ll ask the only question that pays: should any of it change how you’re positioned this morning?
As investors debate whether and when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, market expectations for further tightening are building around the world — and spelling trouble for bonds.
Reasons to be wary about stocks are quickly disappearing and a Goldilocks scenario looks increasingly likely. That’s precisely why it’s a perfect time to hedge against a market priced for perfection.
Gold extended a two-week advance as pared back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes put pressure on the dollar, making bullion cheaper for most buyers.
We are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. This has to end, and I think it will do so in the event I’ve called The Great Reset.
In 3Q26, global fixed-income markets continue to navigate a complex backdrop as resilient growth, elevated inflation, hawkish central-bank pricing and the AI infrastructure buildout intersect. Growth remains supported by the US consumer, fiscal spending in Europe and AI-related capital investment, while inflation is expected to moderate through 2026 and into 2027.
Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.
The US will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, intensifying the Trump administration’s effort to force Tehran’s capitulation after almost six months of war.
For most high-net-worth investors, the bond sleeve of a portfolio isn't there to generate eye-popping returns or provide cocktail party fodder. Its job is much more mainstream: support a targeted lifestyle, cover tax bills, dampen equity market volatility, and provide "dry powder" when the world turns sideways.
European stock markets are booming. But that doesn’t mean Europe is. Traditionally, a bet on European equities is actually a bet on growth everywhere else. The companies that make up the Stoxx Europe 600 — which has risen by about 12% this year — get almost half their revenues outside the continent, according to the index’s owners.
The days of unfettered globalization, multilateral rule of law, commonly accepted limits on economic statecraft, and widely shared macroeconomic objectives are now long gone. A perpetual, directionless transition is our new reality, and corporate executives, investors, and policymakers must adapt accordingly.
All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability.
South Korea expects to deploy more than 1 trillion won ($707 million) of fresh capital into a new sovereign wealth fund targeting AI and other strategic industries next year, joining a global push by governments to mobilize investment and gain an edge in high-tech sectors.
Tech and AI are driving a greater share of global equity market returns and earnings growth, raising concentration risks and the need for broader diversification.
The mantra carrying the markets higher for years has been to leave it to mega-cap tech titans and AI leaders to drive the bulk of market gains, leaving cap-weighted indexes historically top-heavy. But a new narrative has begun to take over.
GDP — for gross domestic product, the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a county’s borders — is in many ways the ideal economic statistic, both for what it measures and what it represents. It is a single number that captures so much information, with a scope and history unmatched by almost any other measure.
Fifty-eight billion dollars. That’s what the Department of War just awarded Lockheed Martin for PAC-3 interceptors, the missiles that have been knocking Iranian ballistic missiles out of the sky for the past five months. It’s one of the largest munitions awards in U.S. history.
Today’s equity markets are arguably the most concentrated, interconnected and exposed to correlated risks in the modern era. In this fragile environment, we believe investors need more than just exposure to stocks that have driven recent market returns. Disciplined stock selection and clear risk objectives are essential—as well as conviction in what not to own.
What stock fund could be safer than a total U.S. stock market index fund with thousands of securities? That was my thinking for the last three decades, but things are changing.
Our thesis remains largely unchanged. Today's “exploding” CDS spreads and bond yields are pricing an Oracle problem. The question investors should be asking isn't whether Oracle is an outlier. It clearly is. The question is whether Oracle is a preview of what happens to credit markets more broadly if AI capital spending keeps outrunning AI revenue.
The leveraged ETF boom is creating new ways to profit from sudden bursts of volatility in tech stocks.
US lawmakers from both parties are seeking to boost federal funding for quantum computing as China and other countries race to transition from research to deployment of the nascent technology across defense, intelligence and cybersecurity.
“Sound money,” in its purest form, is money whose supply a government cannot expand at will. Under a gold standard, every dollar is a claim on a fixed weight of gold. You can’t print gold. So the government can’t monetize its deficits, and the money supply grows only as fast as miners pull metal out of the ground, historically around 1.5% a year.
The AI capital expenditure cycle remains solidly on track to eclipse the telecom boom of the late 1990s and become the largest investment cycle since the railway buildout of the 19th century in inflation-adjusted terms. T
Fixed income markets continue to adjust to an evolving policy backdrop following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Stronger gold prices are happening for a couple different reasons. First of all, optimism is rising that the Strait of Hormuz may finally reopen soon. The news in Iran is certainly welcome, but new jobs data from ADP is helping gold, too.
The AI trade has faced renewed volatility as investors question AI spending and current valuations. Semiconductor stocks and related areas — including memory, networking, photonics, and chip equipment—have all been caught in the pullback.
After spending much of the year in the stock market doghouse over fears about their profligate spending on artificial intelligence, the world’s biggest technology companies are suddenly leading the way once again.
Gold jumped more than 3% after an unexpected contraction in the US jobs market, extending a rebound from its slump below $4,000 an ounce.
The S&P 500 was flat in July 2026 as semiconductors fell 29%, energy gained nearly 13% on higher oil, and long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007.
A clear-eyed view of past experience shows that where wealth taxes have been tried, they have usually been abandoned—and for good reason. As policymakers in California, New York, France, and elsewhere revisit this old idea, they should heed the lessons of this history.
Asian/European Markets
In Your Backyard: Jobs, Growth, and the Race We're Actually In
This week we take on the objection that scares people most: that AI, and the data centers that run it, are coming for their jobs. This one is different from the water and power arguments, because it isn't really a factual dispute so much as a forecast, and forecasts about technology and employment have a long, undistinguished history of being wrong in both directions.
More Signs of Growth Across AI and Europe
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
The $13 Billion Hugging Face Deal Would Crown Nvidia King of AI
Nvidia Corp. is not only tightening its grip on artificial intelligence, it’s also absorbing the companies fighting to keep the industry open and decentralized. On the same day the chip giant announced quarterly revenue that had doubled and would continue rising next year, sending its shares up 7%, news broke that it has reportedly agreed to spend $13 billion on Hugging Face, a platform for open-weight AI models.
Warning Lights On
When a driver sees an unfamiliar light on the dashboard, the hope is that it’s a false positive that will go away on its own. But a persistent warning must be addressed before it becomes a bigger problem. The global economy is moving forward with several warning lights flashing, and those signals are becoming harder to ignore.
Gold Regains Its Luster
For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.
Where Is Your Happy Place? Maybe It’s Slovenia
Most residents of rich, Western countries have relatively high earnings, but many also feel they can’t afford a reasonable lifestyle. Americans, for example, are getting richer but also more unhappy. Meanwhile Eastern Europeans, not generally known for their cheery disposition, are most satisfied with their comparatively lower income.
Gold and Silver Surge as the Debasement Trade Returns
Investors who focus only on tomorrow’s gold price may miss the larger purpose of owning precious metals. Gold and silver are not merely vehicles for chasing a rally. They are tools for preserving purchasing power during periods of fiscal and monetary instability.
The ‘Burn the Bonds’ Stage of the Debt Cycle Is Here
High indebtedness has prompted a call for France to cancel part of its public liabilities. Ideas spread, so expect similarly unorthodox demands elsewhere as governments grapple with high debt, while political disruptors air increasingly unconventional policies. All those roads, however, lead to more inflation and the debauchment of financial assets.
US Stock Futures Climb as Nvidia’s Outlook Lifts Tech Sector
A blockbuster outlook from chip darling Nvidia Corp. is providing a boost to tech stocks and lifting key equity indexes Thursday morning, adding to investor optimism about the AI cycle.
Higher Oil Prices and Inflation Concerns Weigh on Both Bonds and Stocks
The bond market rarely dominates the financial headlines. But with a light economic data release schedule and earnings season largely in the rearview mirror, the bond market took center stage last week.
What the New Section 338 Tariffs Mean for the U.S. and Canada
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
America Has a Labor Force Participation Problem
U.S. labor force participation is declining due to an aging population, slowing immigration, and other factors. This could impact economic growth and earnings moving forward.
Warning Lights On
In choppy waters, many novice ship passengers will experience sea sickness. The only sure remedy is to wait it out. Symptoms will pass, as will the rough waters.
The Great Inversion: Investment Opportunities Amid a New Paradigm
The most durable assumption in global investing is also the most outdated: that the United States is fundamentally a consumption story and China is fundamentally a capital-expenditure story.
Consumer Confidence Falls Slightly in August
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in August, falling 0.8 points to 89.4. The index was below the forecast of 90.3.
European ETFs: Back in the Game
European equities have long been written off as the ultimate value trap — a sleepy, slow-growth market living in the shadow of Wall Street’s tech-fueled mega-rally. But a massive shift in market dynamics is unfolding across the Atlantic.
Nvidia Is Jolting Silicon Valley to Think Like China
When a typical business finds its supply chain costs have risen, it will absorb the increase to keep its customers happy. Nvidia isn’t a typical business. It enjoys gross profit margins of 75% and commands between 70% and 90% of the global market for artificial-intelligence chips.
Markets Weigh Business Strength Against Consumer Weakness
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
The Blame Game About Rising Yields
James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief political advisor, once quipped that if he could be reincarnated he wanted to come back as the bond market because “You can intimidate everybody.”
NVIDIA Q2 Earnings & Outlook Matter More This Time. Here's Why
Macro strategists and global portfolio managers have their hands full on this final week of August. As we said recently, this is no time to mail it in before Labor Day in the U.S. And for equity traders and bottom-up analysts, NVIDIA (NVDA) writes the storyline in the sessions ahead. The world's most valuable company reports Q2 results after the bell on Wednesday.
Jackson Hole Offers Warsh High Profile Slot to Rebut His Critics
Kevin Warsh’s first major speech as chairman of the Federal Reserve has become an unexpected trial of his slimmed-down communications style.
The Bond Market Is Returning to the Old Normal
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
Operation Twist
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
What’s Pushing Long-Term Bond Yields Higher?
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
Did America Just Become a Nation of Luddites?
Something strange has been happening in America lately. The Wall Street Journal says this is the summer when the U.S. became “a nation of Luddites.” The Economist calls it “the Summer of Ludd.”
World Markets Watchlist: August 24, 2026
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through August 24, 2026.
Nvidia’s Trillion-Dollar Chip Market Has Friends and Foes Closing In
Amazon.com Inc.’s Andy Jassy has begun making an audacious boast during conference calls this year. Though his company remains a top Nvidia Corp. customer, it’s also one of the world’s largest makers of data center chips in its own right.
US Futures Drop as Investors Prep for Busy Week, Nvidia Earnings
US stocks traded lower before the bell on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of economic data and important earnings from Nvidia Corp.
Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong
The debt problem is real. It just isn’t a bomb. As we’ve written before, the debt and deficit problem isn’t what you think. It’s a tax on future growth, collected slowly, and normal interest rates are simply the price of money doing its job, not the crisis the headlines keep selling.
A Bigger Basket Isn't Always a More Diversified One
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
Rogue AI Is a Scary But Fixable Problem
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
White House Bitcoin Support Sparks This ETF
On the back of the White House’s cryptocurrency confab, which brought together policymakers and leaders of the digital asset community, Bitcoin notched a double-digit gain over August 19-20 — a rally that pumped new life into the largest digital currency.
Why International Stocks Are Outpacing the U.S. Again
For 11 of the 12 years following the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. stocks beat international markets. But that trend has flipped: Over the past four years, international equities have taken the lead.
AI In Your Backyard: The Water and the Wires
Artificial intelligence is the topic of the day. It seems everyone has an opinion but not much actual factual knowledge. I’ve been dragging emails and research into my AI folder for a very long time. Today (and next week) I review those emails, as we are going to look at the reasons there is so much opposition to AI data centers.
America's New Debt Reality
U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.
Gold Jumps as Treasury Buybacks Revive Debasement Concerns
Gold climbed to the highest in three months as the US Treasury’s bold intervention to try to stem a damaging increase in borrowing costs revived investor fears about its fiscal burden.
Goldman, JPMorgan Are Among Most Bullish on Europe
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are among the most optimistic about European stocks on the back of a robust corporate earnings outlook, a Bloomberg survey shows.
Should You Consider High-Yield Municipal Bonds?
High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.
There’s More to Growth Than AI
For many of the past several years, investor enthusiasm has been concentrated in a narrow group of AI-related and technology stocks. As liquidity conditions tighten and speculation begins to recede, broader market fundamentals are gaining importance.
Gold’s Renewed Momentum Puts New Shine on IAUI
There’s new life in the gold market, and that momentum could represent a buying opportunity for bullion-enthused investors seeking income. The NEOS Gold High Income ETF (IAUI) is ready to meet the moment.
Meta’s Trial Adds a Trillion-Dollar Risk to Its Struggling Stock
Shares of Meta Platforms Inc. have been under pressure all year due to questions about its spending on artificial intelligence. But a trial accusing its social media platforms of targeting children goes beyond that, raising existential questions about the future of its core business.
Alibaba Profit Dives 75% After AI Spending Hits $10 Billion
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s profit plunged more than 75% after the Chinese company ratcheted up quarterly capital spending to almost $10 billion, aiming to safeguard its position in a fiercely competitive global AI arena.
Bessent Becomes Most Interventionist Treasury Chief in Decades
With a slew of unexpected maneuvers this year, Scott Bessent has emerged as the most interventionist Treasury secretary in financial markets in decades — putting his credibility on the line in an effort to quell a potentially damaging rise in US borrowing costs.
Shifting Leadership in Global Growth
Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.
Wall Street Leans on Insurance Pools for $16 Billion Kuwait Deal
The deal follows similar moves elsewhere in the Gulf, including oil and gas pipeline transactions by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Saudi Aramco, as governments seek to bring in external capital without losing control of key assets. In these cases, investors obtained bridge financing from banks that were later refinanced by bonds.
What BDC Markets Are Signaling About Private Credit Valuations
BDC bonds have recovered most of their underperformance while equities continue to lag, suggesting investors are demanding a higher risk premium to compensate for uncertainty around portfolio valuations.
Gold Mining ETFs: Poised to Outshine Gold
Gold’s outlook has brightened considerably following its first-half correction. Spot prices have rebounded to flirt with $4,400 per ounce, supported by renewed central-bank buying, softer economic data, and diminished expectations for further Fed tightening.
Humanoid Robots Need a Supply Chain in North America
More than a decade ago, hundreds of US garage entrepreneurs were working on shoestring budgets to develop drones with dreams of scaling the new technology. Then China’s DJI introduced a small, inexpensive drone with a stable built-in camera.
Is It Better to Be Rich in Europe or in America?
America remains the best country in the world to get rich. Some see this as cause for celebration, while others view it as evidence of a broken capitalist system. As an economist, I am less interested in debating whether billionaires (or trillionaires) should exist than in asking what the alternative is.
Governments Dealing With Debt
Governments can print money, but they cannot print credibility. Once investors begin to question a country's fiscal trajectory, borrowing costs rise, confidence erodes, and policy choices become increasingly constrained. The age of cheap debt allowed many governments to overlook these limits. Today, they are becoming harder to escape.
Small-Caps, Big Opportunities: Consider Value Amid Rally
Small-cap equities are winning out against their large-cap counterparts in a classic David versus Goliath ETF battle. After years of mega-cap technology dominance, small-cap equities have delivered investors a historic first half of 2026.
US Bond Selloff Drives 30-Year Yields to Highest Since 2007
The yield on 30-year US Treasuries hit the highest in almost two decades, reflecting investor angst over surging government spending, a flood of long-dated bond sales and inflation that’s been stuck over the Federal Reserve’s target for the past five years.
Midterm Year Pullbacks Have Been Followed by Double-Digit Gains
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: it’s not the political party that matters, but the policies. Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change.
Bonds vs. Bond Funds: Which is Right for You?
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.
US Equity Leadership Remains Intact
For over two decades, US equities have been the global market leader, outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600 by an astonishing approximately 530%. While Europe’s recent comeback has narrowed the gap, the forces underpinning US leadership remain firmly intact. Below, we revisit the case for US versus European equities and reiterate why we maintain our preference for US equities.
Micro Over Macro
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Lacy Hunt Turns Bearish: Studying His Reversal
Hoisington Investment Management — managed by Hunt and Hoisington — sharply reduced its clients’ bond duration and put the proceeds in Treasury bills. That reversal of such long-held opinions deserves serious attention. I will summarize Hunt’s new views and some counterpoints to help you assess his new stance.
A Market Ahead of Its Economy
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
Yen Intervention Narrative: What’s True And Not
So let’s do the work the timeline skips, starting with separating what actually happened from what the narrative needs you to believe. Then we’ll ask the only question that pays: should any of it change how you’re positioned this morning?
Bonds Face Bigger Threat Than the Fed as Global Rates Climb
As investors debate whether and when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, market expectations for further tightening are building around the world — and spelling trouble for bonds.
Chasing This Rally Boosts the Need for Protection
Reasons to be wary about stocks are quickly disappearing and a Goldilocks scenario looks increasingly likely. That’s precisely why it’s a perfect time to hedge against a market priced for perfection.
Gold Rises to Near $4,400 as Traders Pare Fed Rate Hike Bets
Gold extended a two-week advance as pared back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes put pressure on the dollar, making bullion cheaper for most buyers.
Caught in a Debt Trap
We are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. This has to end, and I think it will do so in the event I’ve called The Great Reset.
Key Convictions: Third Quarter 2026
In 3Q26, global fixed-income markets continue to navigate a complex backdrop as resilient growth, elevated inflation, hawkish central-bank pricing and the AI infrastructure buildout intersect. Growth remains supported by the US consumer, fiscal spending in Europe and AI-related capital investment, while inflation is expected to moderate through 2026 and into 2027.
Time for Core (Plus) Bond Portfolios Again?
Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.
US Readies Unprecedented ‘Economic Isolation’ Plan for Iran
The US will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, intensifying the Trump administration’s effort to force Tehran’s capitulation after almost six months of war.
Is Your Bond Strategy Built for Change?
For most high-net-worth investors, the bond sleeve of a portfolio isn't there to generate eye-popping returns or provide cocktail party fodder. Its job is much more mainstream: support a targeted lifestyle, cover tax bills, dampen equity market volatility, and provide "dry powder" when the world turns sideways.
Europe’s Stock Market Boom Is Hiding a Darker Truth
European stock markets are booming. But that doesn’t mean Europe is. Traditionally, a bet on European equities is actually a bet on growth everywhere else. The companies that make up the Stoxx Europe 600 — which has risen by about 12% this year — get almost half their revenues outside the continent, according to the index’s owners.
The World Economy Is Swerving, and the Destination Is Unknown
The days of unfettered globalization, multilateral rule of law, commonly accepted limits on economic statecraft, and widely shared macroeconomic objectives are now long gone. A perpetual, directionless transition is our new reality, and corporate executives, investors, and policymakers must adapt accordingly.
Mid-Quarter Investor Conference Calendar: Stocks Heat Up Heading Into Autumn
All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability.
Korea Sovereign Wealth Fund to Join Global Race for AI, Robotics
South Korea expects to deploy more than 1 trillion won ($707 million) of fresh capital into a new sovereign wealth fund targeting AI and other strategic industries next year, joining a global push by governments to mobilize investment and gain an edge in high-tech sectors.
Equity Diversification in an Era of Concentration
Tech and AI are driving a greater share of global equity market returns and earnings growth, raising concentration risks and the need for broader diversification.
Value Strikes Back: Inside 2026’s Great Rotation
The mantra carrying the markets higher for years has been to leave it to mega-cap tech titans and AI leaders to drive the bulk of market gains, leaving cap-weighted indexes historically top-heavy. But a new narrative has begun to take over.
Why GDP Is the GOAT of Economic Statistics
GDP — for gross domestic product, the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a county’s borders — is in many ways the ideal economic statistic, both for what it measures and what it represents. It is a single number that captures so much information, with a scope and history unmatched by almost any other measure.
The U.S. Needs Missiles Faster Than It Can Build Them
Fifty-eight billion dollars. That’s what the Department of War just awarded Lockheed Martin for PAC-3 interceptors, the missiles that have been knocking Iranian ballistic missiles out of the sky for the past five months. It’s one of the largest munitions awards in U.S. history.
So, Why Don't You Own It?
Today’s equity markets are arguably the most concentrated, interconnected and exposed to correlated risks in the modern era. In this fragile environment, we believe investors need more than just exposure to stocks that have driven recent market returns. Disciplined stock selection and clear risk objectives are essential—as well as conviction in what not to own.
The Mega-cap IPOs’ Impact on Index Funds
What stock fund could be safer than a total U.S. stock market index fund with thousands of securities? That was my thinking for the last three decades, but things are changing.
Hidden Debt: Is Our Hyperscaler Thesis Wrong?
Our thesis remains largely unchanged. Today's “exploding” CDS spreads and bond yields are pricing an Oracle problem. The question investors should be asking isn't whether Oracle is an outlier. It clearly is. The question is whether Oracle is a preview of what happens to credit markets more broadly if AI capital spending keeps outrunning AI revenue.
Leveraged ETF Boom Creates New Ways to Profit From Sudden Bursts of Volatility
The leveraged ETF boom is creating new ways to profit from sudden bursts of volatility in tech stocks.
Congress Eyes Boosting Quantum Funds as Global Race Heats Up
US lawmakers from both parties are seeking to boost federal funding for quantum computing as China and other countries race to transition from research to deployment of the nascent technology across defense, intelligence and cybersecurity.
Sound Money: Be Careful What You Wish For
“Sound money,” in its purest form, is money whose supply a government cannot expand at will. Under a gold standard, every dollar is a claim on a fixed weight of gold. You can’t print gold. So the government can’t monetize its deficits, and the money supply grows only as fast as miners pull metal out of the ground, historically around 1.5% a year.
Earnings Drive the Tape
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The AI Split Between U.S. Dollar and Euro Investment Grade
The AI capital expenditure cycle remains solidly on track to eclipse the telecom boom of the late 1990s and become the largest investment cycle since the railway buildout of the 19th century in inflation-adjusted terms. T
AI Borrowing Reshapes the Bond Market
Fixed income markets continue to adjust to an evolving policy backdrop following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Looking at Gold? Active ETFs Can Ride the Rally
Stronger gold prices are happening for a couple different reasons. First of all, optimism is rising that the Strait of Hormuz may finally reopen soon. The news in Iran is certainly welcome, but new jobs data from ADP is helping gold, too.
AI ETFs: Memory & Photonics Move Into Focus
The AI trade has faced renewed volatility as investors question AI spending and current valuations. Semiconductor stocks and related areas — including memory, networking, photonics, and chip equipment—have all been caught in the pullback.
Big Tech Stocks Storm Back as AI Fears Fade and Euphoria Resumes
After spending much of the year in the stock market doghouse over fears about their profligate spending on artificial intelligence, the world’s biggest technology companies are suddenly leading the way once again.
Gold Jumps as Weak US Jobs Data Adds Fuel to Bullion’s Rebound
Gold jumped more than 3% after an unexpected contraction in the US jobs market, extending a rebound from its slump below $4,000 an ounce.
July 2026 Market Update: The AI Selloff, Middle East Tensions and What it Means for Your Portfolio
The S&P 500 was flat in July 2026 as semiconductors fell 29%, energy gained nearly 13% on higher oil, and long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007.
Why Wealth Taxes Always Fail
A clear-eyed view of past experience shows that where wealth taxes have been tried, they have usually been abandoned—and for good reason. As policymakers in California, New York, France, and elsewhere revisit this old idea, they should heed the lessons of this history.