The European Central Bank raised its policy rate, and more hikes are coming.
Markets are no longer shocked by central bank tightening.
ESG proponents sell the idea to investors that they can achieve both altruism and high returns. In the end, they fail at both.
The recent embrace of so-called liquid alternatives by ordinary Americans seeking to fund their retirement is deeply troubling.
Bullish markets are increasingly pricing in a second-half reversal of the global monetary tightening wave, making it tougher for central bankers to vanquish inflation once and for all.
The cost of insuring emerging-market nations against default fell to the lowest in nearly a year as the dollar weakens and investors bet that less aggressive US tightening will bring relief to developing borrowers.
Technology bellwethers Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. posted results Thursday that show an economic slowdown is throttling demand for everything from electronics and e-commerce to cloud computing and digital advertising.
These weekly letters, of which I’ve now written well over 1,000 (plus 7 books and multiple papers and articles), are generally about two broad topics: the economy and the financial markets. While related, these aren’t the same. Good news for one can be (and often is) bad news for the other.
Retail demand for bars and coins in the U.S. and Europe hit a new annual record last year in response to stubbornly high inflation and the war in Ukraine. Western investors gobbled up 427 tons (approximately 15 million ounces), the most since 2011.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
In 1965 I was studying for a degree in Engineering.
Traders piling back into tech stocks just got a sobering signal that they might have gotten ahead of themselves.
Europe’s looming ban on almost all Russian fuel is sparking a scramble for alternatives, not least from Middle Eastern petrostates.
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP’s $15 billion commitment last year to help finance Intel Corp.’s giant new semiconductor complex in Arizona, the first deal of its kind, sent investors and bankers racing to find similar opportunities.
As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
On Monday, Germany’s GDP print for the final quarter of 2022 came out below expectations of 0.0% by -2%.
A $480 billion chipmaker whose processors are used for complex computing tasks. A digital-media company seeking to mine nascent technologies for content.
Three decades after helping give birth to the ETF industry, Morgan Stanley is officially back in the game in what could be a milestone moment for the investing world.
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
The January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.9, up 0.7 from the final December figure, and marginally better than the Investing.com forecast of 46.8. However, this marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
I chose the topic for this month’s Absolute Return Letter during the Christmas break.
Shaky property markets across much of the world pose another risk to the global economy as higher interest rates erode household finances and threaten to exacerbate falling prices.
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
It is hard to reconcile the jubilant mood of many business leaders with the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
Foreigners are returning to China’s stock market with a vengeance, snapping up more shares in January alone than they did for the whole of 2022.
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 30, 2023. The top performer continues to be Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a YTD gain of 11.57%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 9.40%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 8.64%. Coming in last for the fourth straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 2.20% YTD.
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
US dollar cycles are long.
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
It is possible, contrary to the predictions of most economists, that the US will get through this disinflationary period and make the proverbial “soft landing.”
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
No advisor would dream of engaging in the kind of behavior that occurred at Purdue University in early December.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joined Bloomberg TV in Davos to discuss the outlook for credit as recession nears.
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.
Cathie Wood is back to selling JD.com Inc. shares after a hiatus of about six months as Chinese technology stocks see a historic rebound helped by regulatory easing.
After a year that brought a surprise surge in interest rates, the biggest stock drop since 2008 and a halt to major deals, plenty of finance executives lined up at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting to say they now see reasons to be upbeat.
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
A correct, affordable and successful industrial policy would create the conditions in which the U.S. and foreign companies will invest in U.S. re-industrialization in their own self-interest.
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
A chart breakdown in the S&P 500. Signs of complacency in a closely watched options gauge.
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
Bond traders were once deemed so powerful and all-knowing that Tom Wolfe described them as the “Masters of the Universe” in his classic 1987 novel “The Bonfire of the Vanities” that used Wall Street as its backdrop.
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is justifiably proud of the central bank’s independence — and refreshingly candid about its boundaries.
There are several ways to look at Tesla’s deep price cuts in the US and Europe, which came on the heels of two rounds of reductions in the span of 10 weeks in China.
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
European policymakers face a dilemma: continue to hike interest rates to combat inflation or ease off to stimulate growth.
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
Overnight, traders pressed the Bank of Japan again on its Yield Curve Control (YCC).
Nearly seven years have passed since the publication of our 2016 paper “How Can ‘Smart Beta’ Go Horribly Wrong?”
Last year an infamous cryptocurrency ad featured the slogan “fortune favors the brave.” And while historically fortune does favor the brave, there is a difference between courage and blind faith.
In 1817, David Ricardo developed his theory of comparative advantage to explain why countries engage in trade together, even when one country has an absolute advantage.
Vanguard Group, which quit the world’s biggest climate-finance alliance in December, was the only major ETF provider to post an increase in European assets last year thanks to its lower exposure to environmental, social and governance strategies, according to Morningstar Inc.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Asian/European Markets
The ECB is Not Done Yet
The European Central Bank raised its policy rate, and more hikes are coming.
Central Banks vs. Financial Conditions
Markets are no longer shocked by central bank tightening.
The Real Issue with ESG Investing
ESG proponents sell the idea to investors that they can achieve both altruism and high returns. In the end, they fail at both.
Alternatives for the Masses?
The recent embrace of so-called liquid alternatives by ordinary Americans seeking to fund their retirement is deeply troubling.
Markets Play Game of Chicken With Central Banks on Pivot Bets
Bullish markets are increasingly pricing in a second-half reversal of the global monetary tightening wave, making it tougher for central bankers to vanquish inflation once and for all.
Emerging Market Default Risk Falls Back to Pre-Ukraine War Level
The cost of insuring emerging-market nations against default fell to the lowest in nearly a year as the dollar weakens and investors bet that less aggressive US tightening will bring relief to developing borrowers.
Apple, Alphabet, Amazon Hurt as Economic Slump Crimps Demand
Technology bellwethers Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. posted results Thursday that show an economic slowdown is throttling demand for everything from electronics and e-commerce to cloud computing and digital advertising.
A Muddle-Through Market, for Now
These weekly letters, of which I’ve now written well over 1,000 (plus 7 books and multiple papers and articles), are generally about two broad topics: the economy and the financial markets. While related, these aren’t the same. Good news for one can be (and often is) bad news for the other.
Gold and Copper Look Well-Positioned in 2023
Retail demand for bars and coins in the U.S. and Europe hit a new annual record last year in response to stubbornly high inflation and the war in Ukraine. Western investors gobbled up 427 tons (approximately 15 million ounces), the most since 2011.
Back to the Drawing Board
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
A Walk Down Memory Lane
In 1965 I was studying for a degree in Engineering.
Nasdaq Rally Gets a Reality Check as Megacaps Miss
Traders piling back into tech stocks just got a sobering signal that they might have gotten ahead of themselves.
Gulf Oil Refiners Struggle to Be Ready as EU Bans Russian Fuels
Europe’s looming ban on almost all Russian fuel is sparking a scramble for alternatives, not least from Middle Eastern petrostates.
Intel's Planned US Chip Plant Has Bankers Looking for Similar Deals
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP’s $15 billion commitment last year to help finance Intel Corp.’s giant new semiconductor complex in Arizona, the first deal of its kind, sent investors and bankers racing to find similar opportunities.
The FOMC Won’t Blink
As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
Regional Differences in European GDP Trends
On Monday, Germany’s GDP print for the final quarter of 2022 came out below expectations of 0.0% by -2%.
Wall Street Is Obsessed With ChatGPT. These Are the AI Stocks to Watch
A $480 billion chipmaker whose processors are used for complex computing tasks. A digital-media company seeking to mine nascent technologies for content.
Morgan Stanley Makes Historic ETF Comeback With Six New Funds
Three decades after helping give birth to the ETF industry, Morgan Stanley is officially back in the game in what could be a milestone moment for the investing world.
Where is the Recession?
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Declining Further
The January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.9, up 0.7 from the final December figure, and marginally better than the Investing.com forecast of 46.8. However, this marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Is the Bubble About to Burst?
I chose the topic for this month’s Absolute Return Letter during the Christmas break.
Housing Slump From US to China Adds Risks to Global Economy
Shaky property markets across much of the world pose another risk to the global economy as higher interest rates erode household finances and threaten to exacerbate falling prices.
Wall Street's Feel-Good Start to 2023 Sets Up Perilous Fed Day
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
Too Soon for Global Optimism
It is hard to reconcile the jubilant mood of many business leaders with the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
10 Macroeconomic Themes for 2023
Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
Foreigners Scoop Up China Shares With January Inflow at Record
Foreigners are returning to China’s stock market with a vengeance, snapping up more shares in January alone than they did for the whole of 2022.
Top Bond Fund Bets Markets Are Wrong on Rates, Again
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
World Markets Update: January 30, 2023
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 30, 2023. The top performer continues to be Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a YTD gain of 11.57%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 9.40%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 8.64%. Coming in last for the fourth straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 2.20% YTD.
Stocks Decreasing to Start the Busy Week
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Historic Crash for Memory Chips Threatens to Wipe Out Earnings
The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Investors Flock to European Stocks Leaving US Behind, BofA Says
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
European Outlook: Less Downside Now, But Caution Still Warranted
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
$1 Trillion Green Investment Matches Fossil Fuels for First Time
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Big Oil Faces Headwinds After Record $199 Billion Profit Haul
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
China Reopening an Insignificant Factor for Germany So Far
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
Economists Finally Have a Good Excuse for Being Wrong
It is possible, contrary to the predictions of most economists, that the US will get through this disinflationary period and make the proverbial “soft landing.”
Global Economic Outlook: Run-of-the-Mill
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Lessons from a Deeply Offensive Gaffe
No advisor would dream of engaging in the kind of behavior that occurred at Purdue University in early December.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Market Conditions Favor a Move Up in Credit Quality
Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joined Bloomberg TV in Davos to discuss the outlook for credit as recession nears.
From Inflation Reduction To Trade Friction
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Cathie Wood's ARKK Is Well on Way to One of Its Best Months Ever
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
The Crypto Crackdown Is Just Getting Started
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
Common and Unique Threads of European Inflation
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
A Powerful New Tool Transforms How Billionaires Give Fortunes Away
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
US Market Watchers Are Fretting Over the Biggest January Options Expiry in a Decade
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
China Stocks on Cusp of Bull Market as Year of the Tiger Ends
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.
Cathie Wood Resumes Selling in JD.com for First Time Since July
Cathie Wood is back to selling JD.com Inc. shares after a hiatus of about six months as Chinese technology stocks see a historic rebound helped by regulatory easing.
Wall Street Spreads New Year Cheer With Upbeat Davos Outlook
After a year that brought a surprise surge in interest rates, the biggest stock drop since 2008 and a halt to major deals, plenty of finance executives lined up at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting to say they now see reasons to be upbeat.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Quarterly Letter – January 2023
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
A Not-So-Fresh Start
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
A Four-Step Plan for Re-Industrialization
A correct, affordable and successful industrial policy would create the conditions in which the U.S. and foreign companies will invest in U.S. re-industrialization in their own self-interest.
Strategic Income Outlook: Was This a Crazy Year or What?
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
Bruised Stock Bears Bust Out the Charts in Arguing the Top Is In
A chart breakdown in the S&P 500. Signs of complacency in a closely watched options gauge.
Payden & Rygel 2023 Macro Outlook: Macro Memes & Mind Viruses
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
Global Bond Sales Off to Record Start of Nearly $600 Billion
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Macro Hedge Funds Had a Banner Year. Can They Stage an Encore?
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
Even the Masters of the Universe Are Stumped
Bond traders were once deemed so powerful and all-knowing that Tom Wolfe described them as the “Masters of the Universe” in his classic 1987 novel “The Bonfire of the Vanities” that used Wall Street as its backdrop.
EM Debt Outlook: China Takes Center Stage
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
The Fed Should Fight Inflation, Not Climate Change
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is justifiably proud of the central bank’s independence — and refreshingly candid about its boundaries.
Tesla Is on Both Offense and Defense in Its First-Ever Price War
There are several ways to look at Tesla’s deep price cuts in the US and Europe, which came on the heels of two rounds of reductions in the span of 10 weeks in China.
Asia: The Early Innings of Innovation?
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
Weakening Growth Outlook to Eventually Favor Euro Rate Risk
European policymakers face a dilemma: continue to hike interest rates to combat inflation or ease off to stimulate growth.
Time to Buy the Dip In Energy?
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
Obituary: Yield Curve Control
Overnight, traders pressed the Bank of Japan again on its Yield Curve Control (YCC).
Revisiting Our “Horribly Wrong” Paper: That Was Then, This Is Now
Nearly seven years have passed since the publication of our 2016 paper “How Can ‘Smart Beta’ Go Horribly Wrong?”
Beware of the “Obvious” Trade
Last year an infamous cryptocurrency ad featured the slogan “fortune favors the brave.” And while historically fortune does favor the brave, there is a difference between courage and blind faith.
4Q22 International Value Strategy
In 1817, David Ricardo developed his theory of comparative advantage to explain why countries engage in trade together, even when one country has an absolute advantage.
Vanguard Gets Extra ETF Billions After Largely Shunning ESG
Vanguard Group, which quit the world’s biggest climate-finance alliance in December, was the only major ETF provider to post an increase in European assets last year thanks to its lower exposure to environmental, social and governance strategies, according to Morningstar Inc.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Punchbowl Is Gone
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.