Liquidity

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Without a doubt, the number-one story in the financial markets of late has been the run-up in longer-dated Treasury (UST) yields. Indeed, headlines in both traditional and social media have centered on the fact that bond yields are now at levels not seen in nearly 20 years, or the time period right before the Financial Crisis hit in 2007.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.

When it comes to equities exposure, investors typically gravitate toward a passive, market-cap-weighted index as the default strategy. These strategies are often billed as an efficient, low-cost method to capture broad market returns. As such, cap-weighted funds that track the S&P 500 or MSCI World have taken in trillions of dollars in global capital. However, within these market-cap-weighted indexes, a structural flaw exists.

Artificial intelligence is the topic of the day. It seems everyone has an opinion but not much actual factual knowledge. I’ve been dragging emails and research into my AI folder for a very long time. Today (and next week) I review those emails, as we are going to look at the reasons there is so much opposition to AI data centers.

U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.

GMO’s liquid alternatives are hedge fund strategies (e.g., equity long-short, global macro, event-driven) managed with an emphasis on risk control and liquidity. The GMO Alternative Allocation Strategy (“ALTA”) is a liquid alternative solution combining several underlying strategies; ALTA is available in a mutual fund with daily liquidity.

On August 19, the US Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its long-term bond buybacks, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, between September 9 and the November Quarterly Refunding. The announcement followed a rise in the 30-year Treasury yield to roughly 5.3% and is drawing attention to how the Treasury may respond if pressure at the long end persists.

Leading asset managers T. Rowe Price announced the acquisition of $19 billion F/m Investments in a press release Thursday afternoon. The deal brings F/m’s suite of leading fixed income strategies and ETFs into T. Rowe Price’s fund stable, reinforcing those areas in the latter’s list.

For years, Russell index reconstitutions have been treated as a routine maintenance event. Thousands of stocks are ranked, memberships are adjusted, and markets move on

High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.

For many of the past several years, investor enthusiasm has been concentrated in a narrow group of AI-related and technology stocks. As liquidity conditions tighten and speculation begins to recede, broader market fundamentals are gaining importance.

Market leadership has broadened beyond mega-cap tech, but the next phase is likely to reward disciplined, diversified investors, write Chris Galipeau and Lukasz Kalwak of Franklin Templeton Institute.

Hedged equity as a liquid alternative uses an options-based equity strategy — specifically Swan Global Investments’ Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), in continuous operation since 1997 — as a permanent alternatives allocation that stays invested in the equity market while actively managing downside risk through LEAPS put options

Investor appetite for fixed income continues to expand, as evidenced by the latest weekly ETF inflows report from TD Securities. For the week ending August 14, 2026, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered $41.0 billion in total weekly net inflows, which included $13.2 billion into fixed income funds.

Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.

Anthropic’s preliminary second-quarter results reignited enthusiasm across the artificial intelligence sector, lifting semiconductor stocks 1% on Monday despite broader tech sector declines. Q2 revenue topped $11.5 billion — a 14x surge year-over-year and more than 2x last quarter’s figures.

BDC bonds have recovered most of their underperformance while equities continue to lag, suggesting investors are demanding a higher risk premium to compensate for uncertainty around portfolio valuations.

Discounted municipal bonds could expose you to unexpected taxes. Here's what to know before you buy.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: it’s not the political party that matters, but the policies. Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.

So let’s do the work the timeline skips, starting with separating what actually happened from what the narrative needs you to believe. Then we’ll ask the only question that pays: should any of it change how you’re positioned this morning?

Investors are remaining cautious about the markets, according to our U.S. stocks and economy report this month. Our report notes that while investors have continued to pile into the market via strong ETF flows and high margin debt balances, they've done so reluctantly with more subdued attitudes.

In 3Q26, global fixed-income markets continue to navigate a complex backdrop as resilient growth, elevated inflation, hawkish central-bank pricing and the AI infrastructure buildout intersect. Growth remains supported by the US consumer, fiscal spending in Europe and AI-related capital investment, while inflation is expected to moderate through 2026 and into 2027.

For most high-net-worth investors, the bond sleeve of a portfolio isn't there to generate eye-popping returns or provide cocktail party fodder. Its job is much more mainstream: support a targeted lifestyle, cover tax bills, dampen equity market volatility, and provide "dry powder" when the world turns sideways.

The S&P 500 towed an anchor for much of the summer as a historic momentum and leverage unwind under the surface dragged on the equity benchmark before breaking out to fresh records last week.

While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.

Artificial intelligence data centers are hitting a power problem that has little to do with computer chips, according to a new report from Thornburg Investment Management.

The risks of a rate hike have increased lately, but we don't believe we're there just yet. If the data changes—specifically if inflation comes in hotter-than-expected over the next few months—we'll likely change our view.

There’s been no summer vacation for the bond market this year. It seems there’s a new headline every day that needs to be processed and responded to. In terms of Treasuries (UST), yields at the back-end of the curve have risen in notable fashion and have resulted in rates being at levels not seen in almost twenty years in some cases.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is continuing its aggressive expansion into active, high-yielding options strategies with a definitive agreement to acquire NEOS Investments. Similar to Innovator Capital Management, another recent acquisition, NEOS has established a firm leadership position in the ETF space.

Tech and AI are driving a greater share of global equity market returns and earnings growth, raising concentration risks and the need for broader diversification.

Investors, strategists, and market professionals cannot know exactly when interest rates will change, in which direction, or by how much. That does not mean we should ignore economic data, geopolitical developments, policy decisions, or consumer behavior. Those factors matter. But the number of variables and the ways in which they interact make consistently predicting interest rate turning points extremely difficult.

Earnings drive market corrections. That’s the finding, and the next serious decline won’t arrive with a headline about capital spending or the deficit but will begin exactly where all eight of the others began, in the profit cycle, surfacing in credit spreads and revision breadth well before it reaches any earnings report you can actually read.

Fifty-eight billion dollars. That’s what the Department of War just awarded Lockheed Martin for PAC-3 interceptors, the missiles that have been knocking Iranian ballistic missiles out of the sky for the past five months. It’s one of the largest munitions awards in U.S. history.

For three years, clients have asked the same question: “How do I get into SpaceX or OpenAI before the IPO?” That question just changed tense.

Given how uncertain advisors and investors are over the Federal Reserve’s plans for handling interest rates, the July jobs report was perhaps watched even more closely than normal. That being said, the latest report may not have inspired much confidence.

“Sound money,” in its purest form, is money whose supply a government cannot expand at will. Under a gold standard, every dollar is a claim on a fixed weight of gold. You can’t print gold. So the government can’t monetize its deficits, and the money supply grows only as fast as miners pull metal out of the ground, historically around 1.5% a year.

The AI capital expenditure cycle remains solidly on track to eclipse the telecom boom of the late 1990s and become the largest investment cycle since the railway buildout of the 19th century in inflation-adjusted terms. T

While long-term interest rates have been trending higher driven by a combination of persistent inflation, Fed uncertainty and geopolitical conflict, earnings growth this year has been very strong. If the trend continues, earnings could continue to help equity markets outpace rising interest rate and inflation risks.

Stronger gold prices are happening for a couple different reasons. First of all, optimism is rising that the Strait of Hormuz may finally reopen soon. The news in Iran is certainly welcome, but new jobs data from ADP is helping gold, too.

Most conversations about artificial intelligence in wealth management begin with efficiency. The larger opportunity is using AI to build a different kind of advisory business: one that provides “growth alpha”. Harnessed smartly, AI has the potential to create capacity for the activities that actually drive organic growth.

Morningstar research shows ETF investors gave up 1.2 points a year to poor timing, a gap advisors can help clients close through discipline.

Investors are warming to systematic processes in bond markets. In this new approach, a dynamic multifactor process drives the investment decisions, using predictive factors with demonstrable links to outperformance.

Reducing or eliminating debt might feel like the ultimate financial milestone, but paying off debt early – or avoiding it entirely – can limit future opportunities for building or preserving wealth. During periods of volatility, it may be tempting to get rid of debt for short-term relief, but this could compromise your long-term plan. Staying the course may be crucial to your goals – no matter the market.

On Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, and stocks buckled: the Dow fell 1,153 points, its worst day since April of last year.

This year has offered a vivid reminder of how quickly market conditions can shift—from policy uncertainty, to a sharp geopolitical shock, to a focus on an AI-driven rally. As the themes of the day changed, the case for an overlay persisted.

July 2026 was a flattish month for markets. The S&P 500 index was down slightly. Value did well, while momentum did poorly. Smallcaps, midcaps, and emerging markets, all of which have been the year’s best performers, had a bad month. Commodities, driven largely by oil prices, led the pack, as the fragile ceasefire in Iran failed to hold.

New clients frequently arrive with portfolios that have been built over many years, often across multiple market cycles and advisory relationships. While these portfolios may have generated strong returns, they can also contain concentrated positions, legacy holdings or allocations that no longer align with the client's objectives.

Many of the most critical components of AI infrastructure are produced by a small and increasingly consolidated group of highly specialized companies.

Kevin Warsh considers fewer Fed meetings, the Fed holds rates steady, the Senate moves to avert a shutdown, a new BLS chief is confirmed, and midterms near.

This summer has offered little opportunity for a lull. Investors have contended with Federal Reserve (Fed) policy uncertainty, renewed tariff-driven inflation concerns, escalating tensions in the Middle East, questions about the durability of AI-related investment spending and a packed earnings calendar.

Just as important, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries have continued to behave like hedges in periods of broader market unrest (driven by geopolitics or other conditions). When risk assets come under pressure, Treasury yields have generally fallen, or the dollar has tended to find support.

Lately, it seems like you can’t open a financial publication without stumbling across another article declaring the 60/40 portfolio dead. The pitch is everywhere: bonds are broken, the old rules no longer apply, and investors should modernize by swapping the bonds in their portfolio for Bitcoin, gold, or whatever alternative the asset management industry is currently selling.

In January 1790, the House of Representatives put a simple question to its new Treasury Secretary: what should America make for itself? Alexander Hamilton took almost two years to answer.

There are 38% fewer companies listed on U.S. exchanges today than at the peak in the mid-1990s. The forces behind that decline—regulatory burden, the abundance of private capital, and the quiet disappearance of mid-sized public companies—are structural, not cyclical.

Fixed income can serve several important purposes within an investment portfolio, including income generation, capital preservation, diversification, and supporting future cash flow needs. Unlike growth assets, an individual bond generally provides a defined schedule of interest payments and a stated maturity date.

In this report, John P Kerschner, Global Head of Securitized Products, Daniel Siluk, Head of Global Short Duration and Liquidity, and Michael Contopoulos, Head of Multi-Asset Macro Investing, make the case for why it’s time for short-duration bonds.

GMO’s liquid alternatives are hedge fund strategies (e.g., equity long-short, global macro, event-driven) managed with an emphasis on risk control and liquidity. The GMO Alternative Allocation Strategy (“ALTA”) is a liquid alternative solution combining several underlying strategies; ALTA is available in a mutual fund with daily liquidity.