Estate Planning

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 6, 2024 at 3.72%, the 2-year note ended at 3.66%, and the 30-year at 4.03%.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) inched up to 47.2 in August but remains in contraction territory for a fifth straight month. The index has now contracted for 21 of the past 22 months. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 47.5.

The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.

As of August 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 339 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.

Seven of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through August 30th, 2024. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 19.09%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in second with a year-to-date gain of 15.49% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 14.57%.

The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The July core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up to 46.1 in August from 45.3 in July. The latest reading is better than the 45.0 forecast but keeps the index in contraction territory for a ninth straight month.

With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation remained at its lowest level since early 2021. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 2.5% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.6% growth. On a monthly basis, PCE inflation was up 0.2% from June, as expected.

The second estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.95%, an acceleration from 1.41% for the Q1 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.48%, a pickup from 0.95% for the Q1 headline number.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® hit a six-month high in August. The index rose to 103.3 this month from July's upwardly revised 101.9. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 100.9 forecast.

Home prices continued to trend upwards in June as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a sixteenth consecutive month to a new all-time high. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.4% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 6.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.1% and the YoY was reduced to 0.9%.

Gas prices fell to their lowest level in 6 months this past week. As of August 26th, the price of regular and premium gas decreased 7 cents and 5 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.42, up 5.1% from last week.

Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -19 this month from -17 in July. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -14 and is the lowest reading since May 2020.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) unexpectedly declined to 424.5 in June, just below the all-time high of 424.8 from the previous month. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month and are up 5.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for August. The latest general business activity index came in at -9.7, up from -17.5 last month. This marks the highest level for the index since January 2023 but is the 28th consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory.

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $289.65B in July, the highest level since November. This represents a 9.9% increase from the previous month and better than the expected 4.0% growth. The series is up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.6% from one year ago.

The July release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units, the highest level in fourteen months. The latest reading came in higher than the 624,000 forecast. New home sales are down 10.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 668,000 in June and are up 5.6% from one year ago.

The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index did not decline as much in August following a sharper decline last month. The composite index came in at -3, up from -13 in July. Meanwhile, the future outlook increased to 8.

Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.

Travel on all roads and streets decreased in June. The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.40% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% MoM and up 0.78% YoY.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in July to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from the previous month to 100.4, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238 million in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The latest data fell short of the forecasted rate of 1.340 million. This marks a 6.8% decrease from June and a 16.0% decline compared to one year ago.

In July, nominal home values increased for a 16th straight months while "real" home values declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $362,481, up 0.04% from the previous month and up 3.35% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.32% month-over-month and -1.86% year-over-year.

Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell into negative territory for the first time since January as manufacturing activity softened overall. In August, the index dropped to -7.0 from 13.9 in July, coming in below the forecast of 5.4. The six-month outlook decreased to 15.4.

Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing August survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was little changed at -4.7. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -5.9.

Over the past two years, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Over the past year we have slowly made our way back down but CPI remains elevated. Core CPI is currently sitting at a level last seen in the early 1990s, while headline CPI is near levels seen in the early 2010s.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for July puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War for the 14th straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.83%.

The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 93.7 in July. Despite being the highest level since February 2022, the latest reading marks the 31st consecutive month the index has been below the series historical average of 97.9. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 1.5.

The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.

Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.

The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In June, the trade deficit shrank 2.5% to -$73.11B. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -$72.50B.

The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 38.1% from that peak.

Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q2 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.6%, unchanged from Q1 2024 and remaining at its lowest rate in over two years.

This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 28, 2024 close.

Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?

• A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets
• B) Total Mortgages
• C) Taxes Receivable
• D) Student Loans

As of Q1 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 171% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 86% since the 2009 trough.