This series has been updated to include the November release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,510, down 6.5% from over 50 years ago. After adjusting for inflation, hourly earnings are below their all-time high from April 2020.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Inflation rose slightly in November. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.75% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.3%. The October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Understanding how money impacts human behavior and psychology may help serve your clients effectively.
As of November 29, 2024, the 10-year note was 366 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 48.4 in November but remains in contraction territory for an eighth straight month. The index has now contracted for 24 of the past 25 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 47.7.
Seven of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through December 2, 2024. The U.S. S&P 500 finished first with a year-to-date gain of 27.50%. The Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished second with a year-to-date gain of 16.45%. Germany's DAX finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 15.40%.
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The yield on the 10-year note ended November 29, 2024 at 4.18%, the 2-year note ended at 4.13%, and the 30-year at 4.36%.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 40.2 in November from 41.6 in October. The latest reading is worse than the 44.9 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a twelfth straight month.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in October and is up 4.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® rose in November to the highest level since January. The index increased to 111.7 this month from October's upwardly revised 109.6. This month's reading was slightly lower compared to the 111.8 forecasted.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a twentieth consecutive month to a new all-time high. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.2% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 4.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.2% and the YoY was -0.6%.
Don’t let your clients lose sight of their goals in financial complexity. Give them the clarity and simplicity they crave with a one-page plan that’s tailored to their unique needs.
Sirion Skulpone of Goldman Sachs Asset Management talks through the risks of being concentrated in individual stocks.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in October to its lowest level since March 2016. The index fell 0.4% from the previous month to 99.5, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline.
Nominal retail sales in October were up 0.40% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.85% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.15% MoM and up 0.27% YoY.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for October revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. The latest reading was higher than the expected 0.3% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Wholesale inflation rose 0.2% last month, matching economist estimates. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.3% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 1.9% in September to 2.4% in October.
Let's keep our client meetings focused and manageable. By doing so, we not only respect their time and attention but also increase the likelihood of them taking the necessary steps to achieve their financial goals.
While baby boomers can be slower to embrace technology, younger investors tend to seek out and prefer tech-focused services and providers. This preference for technology is something advisors should lean into to connect with younger generations of investors.
In the midst of grieving your loved one’s loss and making funeral arrangements, you may also be responsible for finalizing their estate, which could include inheriting real estate.
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
Let's take a close look at October's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Next-generation investors are looking for more than just traditional portfolio managements, and advisors should look to meet those expectations.
Consistent communication through market events is vital for advisors concerned about client retention.
Year-end can be an opportune time to review finances, rebalance portfolios, and possibly reduce taxes. Our Bill Cass shares some highlights from a year-end planning checklist.
Our analysis explores how potential post-election tax policy changes might impact dividends, capital gains, and municipal bonds and how investors might prepare for different election outcomes.
Equities continued to climb in Q3, with fixed income remaining steady despite international conflicts, inflationary pressure, and election-related uncertainty in the United States.
When done effectively, your outsourced team of professionals can help improve efficiencies, increase productivity, and scale profitably – all while giving you the freedom to focus on what you’re most passionate about.
Here, we'll explore why serving family offices is a natural fit for many RIAs, discuss the considerations that need to be factored in when launching an MFO practice, and offer a roadmap for successfully building one.
With the election looming, investors should prepare for potential changes in tax policies, particularly given the impending sunset of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Opening a 529 college savings account can be a smart move if you’d like to save for college on a tax-advantaged basis. One thing to consider when opening a 529 plan is whether it should be a custodial or individual account. While both allow you to save for college costs and enjoy some tax breaks, they differ in terms of who has control of the account and the assets in it.
This article will explore how to increase your AUM by capturing assets in trusts and DAFs, explain the difference between directed and traditional trustees, and discuss why designating a directed trustee and an advisor-friendly DAF is in the client’s best interest.
The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.
The looming wealth transfer from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to younger generations is set to reshape the financial landscape in unprecedented ways. Estimated at $84 trillion, this transition is a huge financial event.
The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.
Unbundling services and offering them à la carte could appeal to clients who want more control over their financial management. This approach allows clients to tailor the services they receive to their unique needs and preferences.
For registered investment advisors and others who provide financial advice, autumn is the start of a season loaded with opportunity.
Our experts explore the implications of wider S&P 500 earnings growth, potential Fed rate cuts, and the outlook for global equities and bonds amidst ongoing economic shifts.
Just as the industrial revolution changed the way goods are manufactured and consumed, so the technological revolution will do for services. Once something can be made at scale, the market for it can expand and be segmented. The same goes for financial planning.
The TCJA is set to expire at the end of 2025, bringing unprecedented uncertainty. From potential tax rate hikes to changes in deductions, our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to plan ahead.
A surprising trend has emerged when it comes to discussing inheritance. While very and ultra-high-net-worth clients often engage in these conversations, they tend to occur far less frequently with other segments.
Since mid-2022, when the Federal Reserve was in the midst of its aggressive hiking cycle, investors piled over $1.6 trillion into money market funds, which include Treasury bills.
Most American couples say they trust their partner regarding financial matters, but many reveal they aren’t necessarily in full agreement.
MSCI boosted India’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and reduced China’s in its latest quarterly rebalance, continuing long-term trends.
With attractive valuations, emerging market equities look like a good opportunity. A factor investing strategy, designed well, may enhance performance and help manage some key risks.
The term “Complexity Curve” refers to the growing intricacies that come with managing the wealth of high-net-worth individuals. As their assets grow, so do the complexities of their financial portfolios. This includes everything from business ownership and large qualified plans to complex estate planning issues.
Christine Benz is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning, but she’s written a book that evokes Viktor Frankl as much as Bill Sharpe, aiming to go well beyond the mathematics of saving for, and living in, retirement.
States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.
Passive fixed income index investing has evolved significantly over the previous decade, offering investors the flexibility to align risk requirements and investment goals. Learn more from our experts.
Here’s a quote attributed to P. J. O’Rourke, an American author, journalist and political satirist: “There is a simple rule here, a rule of legislation, a rule of business, a rule of life: beyond a certain point, complexity is fraud.”
The next U.S. president will face immediate fiscal challenges.
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation remained at its lowest level since early 2021. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 2.5% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.6% growth. On a monthly basis, PCE inflation was up 0.2% from June, as expected.
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.
The second estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.95%, an acceleration from 1.41% for the Q1 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.48%, a pickup from 0.95% for the Q1 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.
We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.
Gas prices fell to their lowest level in 6 months this past week. As of August 26th, the price of regular and premium gas decreased 7 cents and 5 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.42, up 5.1% from last week.
Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -19 this month from -17 in July. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -14 and is the lowest reading since May 2020.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) unexpectedly declined to 424.5 in June, just below the all-time high of 424.8 from the previous month. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month and are up 5.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for August. The latest general business activity index came in at -9.7, up from -17.5 last month. This marks the highest level for the index since January 2023 but is the 28th consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $289.65B in July, the highest level since November. This represents a 9.9% increase from the previous month and better than the expected 4.0% growth. The series is up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.6% from one year ago.
The July release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units, the highest level in fourteen months. The latest reading came in higher than the 624,000 forecast. New home sales are down 10.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 668,000 in June and are up 5.6% from one year ago.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index did not decline as much in August following a sharper decline last month. The composite index came in at -3, up from -13 in July. Meanwhile, the future outlook increased to 8.
Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.
Travel on all roads and streets decreased in June. The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.40% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% MoM and up 0.78% YoY.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238 million in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The latest data fell short of the forecasted rate of 1.340 million. This marks a 6.8% decrease from June and a 16.0% decline compared to one year ago.
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
In July, nominal home values increased for a 16th straight months while "real" home values declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $362,481, up 0.04% from the previous month and up 3.35% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.32% month-over-month and -1.86% year-over-year.
Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell into negative territory for the first time since January as manufacturing activity softened overall. In August, the index dropped to -7.0 from 13.9 in July, coming in below the forecast of 5.4. The six-month outlook decreased to 15.4.
Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing August survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was little changed at -4.7. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -5.9.
Over the past two years, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Over the past year we have slowly made our way back down but CPI remains elevated. Core CPI is currently sitting at a level last seen in the early 1990s, while headline CPI is near levels seen in the early 2010s.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for July puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War for the 14th straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.83%.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 93.7 in July. Despite being the highest level since February 2022, the latest reading marks the 31st consecutive month the index has been below the series historical average of 97.9. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 1.5.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.
Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.
Estate Planning
Middle Class Hourly Wages as of November 2024
This series has been updated to include the November release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,510, down 6.5% from over 50 years ago. After adjusting for inflation, hourly earnings are below their all-time high from April 2020.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: November 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Edges Up to 2.75% in November
Inflation rose slightly in November. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.75% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.
Bond Market Opportunities for Investors in 2025
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
Homes for Christmas
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Year-End Estate Planning: Strategies for Maximizing Tax Benefits and Legacy Planning
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
Two Measures of Inflation: October 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.3%. The October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Money Changes Your Clients: Key Psychological Insights for Financial Advisors
Understanding how money impacts human behavior and psychology may help serve your clients effectively.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of November 29, 2024, the 10-year note was 366 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
ISM Manufacturing Index Higher Than Last Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 48.4 in November but remains in contraction territory for an eighth straight month. The index has now contracted for 24 of the past 25 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 47.7.
World Markets Watchlist: December 2, 2024
Seven of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through December 2, 2024. The U.S. S&P 500 finished first with a year-to-date gain of 27.50%. The Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished second with a year-to-date gain of 16.45%. Germany's DAX finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 15.40%.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes November 2024 Up 5.7%
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: November 29, 2024
The yield on the 10-year note ended November 29, 2024 at 4.18%, the 2-year note ended at 4.13%, and the 30-year at 4.36%.
Chicago PMI Edged Lower in November
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 40.2 in November from 41.6 in October. The latest reading is worse than the 44.9 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a twelfth straight month.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.6% in October
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in October and is up 4.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.
Consumer Confidence Rises in November
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® rose in November to the highest level since January. The index increased to 111.7 this month from October's upwardly revised 109.6. This month's reading was slightly lower compared to the 111.8 forecasted.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits New Record High in September
Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a twentieth consecutive month to a new all-time high. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.2% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 4.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.2% and the YoY was -0.6%.
79 Questions to Ask When Building a One-Page Plan
Don’t let your clients lose sight of their goals in financial complexity. Give them the clarity and simplicity they crave with a one-page plan that’s tailored to their unique needs.
Tackling Concentrated Stock Risk
Sirion Skulpone of Goldman Sachs Asset Management talks through the risks of being concentrated in individual stocks.
CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall in October
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in October to its lowest level since March 2016. The index fell 0.4% from the previous month to 99.5, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.4% in October
Nominal retail sales in October were up 0.40% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.85% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.15% MoM and up 0.27% YoY.
Retail Sales Up 0.4% in October, Better Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for October revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. The latest reading was higher than the expected 0.3% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Rose in October
Wholesale inflation rose 0.2% last month, matching economist estimates. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.3% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 1.9% in September to 2.4% in October.
Mastering Client Meetings: How to Avoid Overwhelm and Deliver Massive Value
Let's keep our client meetings focused and manageable. By doing so, we not only respect their time and attention but also increase the likelihood of them taking the necessary steps to achieve their financial goals.
How Financial Advisors Can Target the Next-Gen Recipients of Generational Wealth
While baby boomers can be slower to embrace technology, younger investors tend to seek out and prefer tech-focused services and providers. This preference for technology is something advisors should lean into to connect with younger generations of investors.
Estate Planning Essentials: A Beneficiary’s Guide to Selling Real Estate After a Loved One Dies
In the midst of grieving your loved one’s loss and making funeral arrangements, you may also be responsible for finalizing their estate, which could include inheriting real estate.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.3% of All Employed
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment
Let's take a close look at October's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Advisors Should Adapt to Evolving Client Expectations
Next-generation investors are looking for more than just traditional portfolio managements, and advisors should look to meet those expectations.
Thinking Long Term, Communicating Short Term
Consistent communication through market events is vital for advisors concerned about client retention.
Get a Jumpstart on Year-End Planning With This Useful Checklist
Year-end can be an opportune time to review finances, rebalance portfolios, and possibly reduce taxes. Our Bill Cass shares some highlights from a year-end planning checklist.
U.S. Election: Prepare Now for Potential Tax Shifts
Our analysis explores how potential post-election tax policy changes might impact dividends, capital gains, and municipal bonds and how investors might prepare for different election outcomes.
Climbing the Wall of Worries
Equities continued to climb in Q3, with fixed income remaining steady despite international conflicts, inflationary pressure, and election-related uncertainty in the United States.
Who Belongs on Your Advisory Firm’s Dream Team?
When done effectively, your outsourced team of professionals can help improve efficiencies, increase productivity, and scale profitably – all while giving you the freedom to focus on what you’re most passionate about.
How Can RIAs Start a Multi-Family Office Practice?
Here, we'll explore why serving family offices is a natural fit for many RIAs, discuss the considerations that need to be factored in when launching an MFO practice, and offer a roadmap for successfully building one.
U.S. Election 2024: An Analysis of the Tax Scenarios for Investors
With the election looming, investors should prepare for potential changes in tax policies, particularly given the impending sunset of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
529 Plans: Custodial Versus Individual Accounts
Opening a 529 college savings account can be a smart move if you’d like to save for college on a tax-advantaged basis. One thing to consider when opening a 529 plan is whether it should be a custodial or individual account. While both allow you to save for college costs and enjoy some tax breaks, they differ in terms of who has control of the account and the assets in it.
An Untapped Gold Mine of Assets You Can Manage
This article will explore how to increase your AUM by capturing assets in trusts and DAFs, explain the difference between directed and traditional trustees, and discuss why designating a directed trustee and an advisor-friendly DAF is in the client’s best interest.
Can America Age Gracefully?
The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.
Navigating the $84 Trillion Wealth Transfer: Shaping the Future of Financial Planning
The looming wealth transfer from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to younger generations is set to reshape the financial landscape in unprecedented ways. Estimated at $84 trillion, this transition is a huge financial event.
S&P 500 Index Rebalance: Steady Preference for Technology
The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.
What If Your Prospect Doesn’t Want Comprehensive Wealth Management?
Unbundling services and offering them à la carte could appeal to clients who want more control over their financial management. This approach allows clients to tailor the services they receive to their unique needs and preferences.
Registered Investment Advisors - Turning Autumn Into Assets: Strategies for October’s Bounty
For registered investment advisors and others who provide financial advice, autumn is the start of a season loaded with opportunity.
S&P 500 Earnings Breadth Broadens
Our experts explore the implications of wider S&P 500 earnings growth, potential Fed rate cuts, and the outlook for global equities and bonds amidst ongoing economic shifts.
Your Next Financial Adviser Will Be on an App
Just as the industrial revolution changed the way goods are manufactured and consumed, so the technological revolution will do for services. Once something can be made at scale, the market for it can expand and be segmented. The same goes for financial planning.
Five Observations on the Expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)
The TCJA is set to expire at the end of 2025, bringing unprecedented uncertainty. From potential tax rate hikes to changes in deductions, our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to plan ahead.
Navigating the Psychological Barriers to Fruitful Inheritance Conversations
A surprising trend has emerged when it comes to discussing inheritance. While very and ultra-high-net-worth clients often engage in these conversations, they tend to occur far less frequently with other segments.
Considering Moving Out of T-bills? A Guide to Determine What’s Next in Your Portfolio
Since mid-2022, when the Federal Reserve was in the midst of its aggressive hiking cycle, investors piled over $1.6 trillion into money market funds, which include Treasury bills.
Hot-Button Financial Questions Couples Face in Retirement & Beyond
Most American couples say they trust their partner regarding financial matters, but many reveal they aren’t necessarily in full agreement.
MSCI Index Rebalances: China’s Weight Continues Decline
MSCI boosted India’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and reduced China’s in its latest quarterly rebalance, continuing long-term trends.
Seizing the Opportunity in Emerging Markets
With attractive valuations, emerging market equities look like a good opportunity. A factor investing strategy, designed well, may enhance performance and help manage some key risks.
The Complexity Curve and Excelling with High-Net-Worth Clients
The term “Complexity Curve” refers to the growing intricacies that come with managing the wealth of high-net-worth individuals. As their assets grow, so do the complexities of their financial portfolios. This includes everything from business ownership and large qualified plans to complex estate planning issues.
Retirement Beyond the Numbers
Christine Benz is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning, but she’s written a book that evokes Viktor Frankl as much as Bill Sharpe, aiming to go well beyond the mathematics of saving for, and living in, retirement.
Municipal Bonds: Fiscal 2025 State Outlook
States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.
Index Investing as an Active Decision: Implications for Fixed Income Investors
Passive fixed income index investing has evolved significantly over the previous decade, offering investors the flexibility to align risk requirements and investment goals. Learn more from our experts.
It's Increasingly Difficult to Defend Your Complex Portfolios
Here’s a quote attributed to P. J. O’Rourke, an American author, journalist and political satirist: “There is a simple rule here, a rule of legislation, a rule of business, a rule of life: beyond a certain point, complexity is fraud.”
Overture on Election Issues
The next U.S. president will face immediate fiscal challenges.
Volatility Strikes in September: Our Thoughts
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMIâ„¢: Lowest Level of 2024
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in July
With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.
PCE Inflation Rises 2.5% in July, Less Than Expected
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation remained at its lowest level since early 2021. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 2.5% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.6% growth. On a monthly basis, PCE inflation was up 0.2% from June, as expected.
Consider Packing a Legal Safety Net Before Students Leave for College
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
Fundamentals Matter
While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.
Q2 Second Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP
The second estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.95%, an acceleration from 1.41% for the Q1 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.48%, a pickup from 0.95% for the Q1 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q2 2024 GDP Second Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall 5.5% in July to All-Time Low
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.
Analysis of Fed Chair Powell’s Comments: September Cut Likely, but What After?
We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.
Gasoline Prices Fall to 6-Month Low
Gas prices fell to their lowest level in 6 months this past week. As of August 26th, the price of regular and premium gas decreased 7 cents and 5 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.42, up 5.1% from last week.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Slowed in August
Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -19 this month from -17 in July. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -14 and is the lowest reading since May 2020.
FHFA House Price Index Unexpectedly Declined in June
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) unexpectedly declined to 424.5 in June, just below the all-time high of 424.8 from the previous month. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month and are up 5.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Activity Reaches 19-Month High in August
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for August. The latest general business activity index came in at -9.7, up from -17.5 last month. This marks the highest level for the index since January 2023 but is the 28th consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory.
Durable Goods Orders: July 2024
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $289.65B in July, the highest level since November. This represents a 9.9% increase from the previous month and better than the expected 4.0% growth. The series is up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.6% from one year ago.
New Home Sales Surge to 14-Month High
The July release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units, the highest level in fourteen months. The latest reading came in higher than the 624,000 forecast. New home sales are down 10.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 668,000 in June and are up 5.6% from one year ago.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Declined Less in August
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index did not decline as much in August following a sharper decline last month. The composite index came in at -3, up from -13 in July. Meanwhile, the future outlook increased to 8.
Existing Home Sales Increase in July, Ending 4-Month Skid
Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.
Transform Risk Into Opportunity
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
High-Yield Bonds: Exploring Opportunities in a Volatile Market
We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.
America's Driving Habits as of June 2024
Travel on all roads and streets decreased in June. The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.40% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% MoM and up 0.78% YoY.
Housing Starts Fall to 4-Year Low in July
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238 million in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The latest data fell short of the forecasted rate of 1.340 million. This marks a 6.8% decrease from June and a 16.0% decline compared to one year ago.
Value of an Advisor: C is for Customized Experience and Family Wealth Planning
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls in July
In July, nominal home values increased for a 16th straight months while "real" home values declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $362,481, up 0.04% from the previous month and up 3.35% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.32% month-over-month and -1.86% year-over-year.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Hits Lowest Level of the Year
Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Softens in August
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell into negative territory for the first time since January as manufacturing activity softened overall. In August, the index dropped to -7.0 from 13.9 in July, coming in below the forecast of 5.4. The six-month outlook decreased to 15.4.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declines Slightly in August
Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing August survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was little changed at -4.7. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -5.9.
CPI Components: Breaking Down the July 2024 CPI
Over the past two years, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Over the past year we have slowly made our way back down but CPI remains elevated. Core CPI is currently sitting at a level last seen in the early 1990s, while headline CPI is near levels seen in the early 2010s.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for July puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War for the 14th straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.83%.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Reaches Highest Level Since February 2022
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 93.7 in July. Despite being the highest level since February 2022, the latest reading marks the 31st consecutive month the index has been below the series historical average of 97.9. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 1.5.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
U.S. Workforce Analysis: July 2024
Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.
Household Debt Rises to $17.80 Trillion in Q2
Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.