Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Why RIA Valuations Depend on Organic Growth, Not Just AUM

Massive AUM may earn an RIA a buyer’s attention, but it does not automatically earn a premium valuation in the rapidly evolving M&A landscape.

Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)

The first two articles in this series were about behavior. How to think like an investor instead of a speculator, and how to keep your own wiring and your own training from robbing you. This one is about arithmetic. Cold, unemotional, undefeated arithmetic. Underneath every good decision and every bad one sits a layer of math that does not care how you feel, and Wall Street would very much prefer you never do it in your head.

Five Catalysts That Could Drive a Pickup in Volatility

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, growing questions about the scale of AI-related spending and steadily rising bond yields, market volatility remained remarkably subdued this summer.

Fedspeak's Back, And Warsh Is A Breath of Fresh Air

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech last week to lay out what he thinks of monetary policy. Two things jumped off the pages of his speech.

Triple Mandate

A credit-allocation problem is complicating the Fed’s dual mandate, with current policy restrictive for many consumers and weaker borrowers, but less so for large corporates, higher-quality issuers, and borrowers with access to private credit. This uneven transmission increases the risk that the Fed must tolerate tighter financial conditions and more volatility before policy can ease without extending pro-cyclical leverage.

A Changing Policy Backdrop Could Test Market Optimism

In a week that saw NVIDIA, the largest company in the world, report strong earnings that sent its stock sharply higher and reinvigorated optimism in the artificial intelligence (AI) trade, fiscal and monetary policymakers continued to provide the biggest headlines.

Trade War Resumes

A hard line on trade was a popular plank of the first Trump candidacy. But once in office, his advisors used slow, conventional investigations and negotiations toward the goal of fairer terms of trade.

Income Opportunities Beneath the Surface: Equity Volatility and Credit Dislocations

Beneath relatively muted index-level volatility, single-stock implied volatility remains high. In today’s low-correlation environment, individual stocks are moving more independently, keeping single-name volatility high even as those moves offset at the index level.

There Are Now Half a Million More Home Sellers Than Buyers

San Antonio has been my adopted home for close to 40 years now. I’ve watched it grow through more than one boom cycle, but recent Redfin data suggests we could be looking at a bust.

Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste

The appeal of democratic socialism is real because the pain it speaks to is real. I won’t pretend otherwise. But intentions are not outcomes, and history has handed us the outcomes in ink, from Caracas to the old Soviet bloc to the Nordic countries that quietly kept their capitalism. The promise is a beautiful cake. The aftertaste is shortages, capital flight, inflation, and a new elite standing where the old one used to be.

From the US Market Desk: Now…We Wait…

Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.

Why Emerging Markets Debt is Back in Focus

A weaker U.S. dollar cycle is boosting the appeal of emerging market debt, creating a compelling case for investors seeking income and diversification at an opportune time for the asset class.

How Advisors Rebuilt Their ETF Lineups in Q2 2026

Advisors did not slow down on exchange-traded funds in the second quarter. They added more of them, and pointed the money somewhere new, according to AdvizorPro’s Q2 2026 RIA ETF Trends report.

Getting Paid to Extend: The Case for Muni Duration

Treasury’s pivot toward long-bond buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.

Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Emphasizes Price Stability

In an ambitious and much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh made the most market-moving news when he stated clearly that unless “underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed … we have work to do.”