For decades, traditional index-based ETFs have served as the low-cost foundational anchor for core allocations, consistently demonstrating that outperforming a broad market index is an uphill battle.

After a difficult start to the year, investor sentiment reached a low point near the end of March as concerns around inflation, geopolitics, and rising interest rates weighed on risk assets.

We had a data center at my first banking job. It was a dusty room filled with old Federal Reserve Bulletins, Economic Reports of the Presidents, and annual reports from the International Monetary Fund. I was the search engine, and the operation was powered by caffeine.

What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.

The current level of stock market valuations remains – easily – the most speculative extreme in U.S. financial history, beyond both the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Our baseline estimate is that the S&P 500 has a material risk of losing something on the order of 75% over the completion of this cycle.

Investors should consider where in the capital structure they are best compensated for risk. Equity may offer income with upside potential from active asset management, whereas debt may offer income with downside mitigation.

The first half of 2026 reinforced an important lesson for fixed income investors: Tax-loss harvesting opportunities don’t always arrive at year-end, often appearing during short periods of market dislocation when interest rates rise, new-issue supply increases or investor sentiment shifts.

When it comes to space stocks, Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) is clearly the big kahuna. After all, the company just completed the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, rapidly joining the $1 trillion-plus market capitalization club in the process. However, the broader space economy extends beyond a single company.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ benefited from a semiconductor rebound and renewed enthusiasm for AI infrastructure names. The Dow, weighted more toward “old economy” stocks than high-growth names, captured none of last week’s gains.

LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.

Historically, many in the pension industry viewed funding above the "plan termination level" as having little incremental value. Once a plan reached “plan termination level”, thought of as roughly 110% funding, conventional wisdom suggested additional surplus had little economic value because it is effectively "trapped capital."

It has been an eventful six months, and we are delighted that the Equity Dislocation Strategy has risen to the occasion. The Strategy generated a 9.05% net return in the first half of 2026, compared with a 1.3% return for MSCI ACWI Value minus MSCI ACWI Growth, a broad proxy for the value-growth spread.

The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.

Regardless of how inflation is measured or debated, households continue to feel the cumulative effect of higher prices. The cost of goods and services have risen at a high pace over the past several years, and wage growth has not always kept pace evenly across households.

After a wild last 12 months in a technology stock boom – and more recent volatility – the question du jour, in our view, is not whether AI is transformative.

Every major geopolitical crisis has two types of effects: those that occur during the crisis itself and those that remain on a long-term basis, perhaps even permanently. The US-Iran conflict is no exception.

Fixed income investors continue to grapple with an uncertain macro environment, dominated by higher-for-longer interest rates and a new-look U.S. Federal Reserve, in which rate hikes may be forthcoming. Rather than make a directional bet on interest rates to combat duration risk, consider floating-rate ETFs, a compelling option.

Every year in early July, we update our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months of the year. Maybe I’m biased, but I believe it’s one of the clearest snapshots of the commodities landscape you’ll find anywhere.

While tariff uncertainty hasn’t completely disappeared, it has diminished, and firms are feeling less uncertain about the future.

Over the past few weeks, data has continued to point to a U.S. labor market that is healing after showing signs of weakness starting in late 2024 and persisting for nearly the entirety of 2025—a condition that spurred the Fed to cut rates even as inflation remained stuck above its 2 percent target.

The first wave of upgrades came after the AI hyperscalers reported, by and large, strong earnings. But most of the improvement has stemmed from the rest of the non-financials index, with analysts quadrupling their one-year aggregate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth expectations, from 5% at the end of January to more than 20% as of 30 June.

If you knew you were standing inside a stock market bubble, you wouldn’t be standing in it for long. You’d sell. So would I, and so would everyone reading this. And if spotting market bubbles was something everyone could do in real time, the bubble couldn’t form in the first place.

Despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, markets continue to display remarkable resilience. Major equity averages sit within striking distance of new all-time highs while oil, perhaps the biggest surprise of the year, remains anchored in the low $70s despite renewed hostilities.

As we move toward the mid-term elections, many are making the argument that “democracy is at risk.” We get politicians making this argument, but when supposedly sober political and economic analysts start to make it, we do get worried.

Given how crucial the fixed income sleeve can be to one’s portfolio, the recent concerns over inflation have caused many advisors and investors to rethink how they go about their exposure. This includes debating over active and passive funds, and reevaluating the type of bond duration that is most attractive at this moment.

Morningstar data shows most active strategies lag passive indexes, but selective active fixed income ETFs can generate alpha.

The Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates in the second half of 2026 appear very much up in the air. That said, advisors and fixed income investors may want to renew their focus on short duration bonds and related ETFs.

What makes this earnings setup truly unique is the behavior of Wall Street analysts over the last 90 days. Because corporate guidance tends to be conservative, analysts historically cut estimates ahead of time.

The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.

This week a number of articles caught my attention. The only thing that ties them together is their impact on the US and global economy. Economic anomalies: things we were not looking for but show up and force us to pay attention. Today in the summer heat, let’s take a look at a few of them.