Ride the momentum wave. Discover how tech-fueled factors propelled momentum and high-beta ETFs to historic, benchmark-crushing gains.
When it comes to systematic investing, numbers tell only part of the story. Traditional quantitative models rely on prices, earnings, and balance sheet data, but words matter too.
The U.S. economy appears resilient, judging from key economic measures. AI-driven capex continues to power investment, support equity markets, and sustain a wealth effect that has propped up consumption. Real GDP growth remains positive. Private sector balance sheets are in generally good condition and many higher income and wealthy households have benefited from equity markets gains.
We are expecting inflation in energy prices and a decline in interest rates when the poop hits the AI mania fan. For these reasons, we are overweight in oil stocks and home builders. These industries prospered in the 1970s, once the stock market mania broke in late 1972!
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.05% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.02% month-over-month and up 0.40% year-over-year.
Even if the Middle East war does find a lasting settlement, the specter of inflation appears poised to hang over the markets. Indeed, while employment data had, up until recently, been the primary focus for investors, arguably, inflation reports have now moved into the ‘leaderboard’ position.
Learn what's in store for the remainder of 2026 and the challenges that lie ahead in our mid-year outlook for U.S. stocks and the economy.
A strong business isn’t always a winning stock at every moment, and 2025 was a good reminder of that. Developed market equities finished the year up more than 20%, but quality stocks lagged. That’s why Parametric favors a multifactor approach to capture factor risk premia.
Get ready for a magnificent month, and then some. Mega-cap tech stocks dominate the corporate event calendar in June, already highlighted by NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote address at Computex 2026 in Taiwan earlier this week, one of many major conferences.
Last week, several Fed members signaled the central bank may have to raise interest rates to cool price inflation.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.5. This was higher than the forecast of 53.7 and keeps the index in expansion territory for a 23rd consecutive month.
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9 and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 25.9 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.9, the highest level since 2000.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is negotiating to pay razor-thin fees to Wall Street firms handling its IPO — but banks are still likely to rake in about $500 million from the record-setting market debut.
If you’re not familiar with the name Leopold Aschenbrenner, you should be. A 24-year-old wunderkind, Aschenbrenner was hired by OpenAI in 2023 to work on the company’s “superalignment” team, essentially trying to figure out how to keep AI systems safe once they become smarter than the people building them.
The ETF landscape includes a wide variety of innovative, intriguing funds that look to meet investor goals. From equities to fixed income, all kinds of strategies offer intriguing spins on areas like income and dividends.
Five of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 1, 2026.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.0 in May, marking the fastest expansion for the index since May 2022. The latest reading was higher than the 53.3 forecast and is the index's fifth straight month in expansion territory.
U.S. manufacturing hit its highest level in four years, as the S&P Global PMI climbed 0.6 points to 55.1 in May. For a second straight month, the expansion was largely driven by defensive stockpiling as companies continue bracing for supply disruptions and price hikes linked to conflict in the Middle East.
The essential feature of a useful alternative asset isn’t that it’s unusual or exotic, but that its returns aren’t tightly linked to the risks that already dominate the portfolio. The value of an alternative asset comes from the way it interacts with the other assets in the portfolio.
The assumption that muni equals tax-free is deeply embedded in how the asset class gets discussed and presented. But for high-net-worth clients in high-tax states, the gap between partially exempt and fully exempt is material enough to be worth a conversation.
The dollar is supposed to be dying. We’ve heard that argument for the better part of a decade, and it’s getting louder, not quieter. Dollar dominance isn’t fading. In fact, the events of late April 2026 just delivered the loudest counter-signal in years.
Many debates in defined contribution (DC) circles focus on fees, new asset classes, and ever more complex solutions. But the biggest improvement available to plan participants may come from something far simpler: how their fixed income is managed.
The next IPO wave may create a different kind of portfolio challenge for institutions already holding private stakes in companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.
Equity investors are facing monumental questions about their allocation strategies in a new market regime. Market concentration has risen sharply, valuations have climbed to record highs in parts of the market and factor volatility has dominated returns.
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up down 0.10% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.50%.
An abundance of cash in US funding markets appears to be driven by deeper structural shifts that are unlocking billions of dollars in balance-sheet capacity at the biggest banks, Wall Street strategists say.
The push for international equities diversification continues amid shifting global macroeconomic conditions. These days, investors have more options when it comes to international exposure. Given the current market uncertainty, they may want to put quality at the forefront of their decision-making process.
US growth stocks underperformed in early 2026 amid AI disruption fears and an unresolved conflict in the Middle East. But these stresses could create favorable conditions for selective, diversified investors to unlock long-term growth potential in a rotating market.
Despite these higher costs, a projected 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home this weekend, setting a new record. Close to 40 million will drive while some 3.7 million will fly.
On May 26, 1896, Charles Dow calculated a simple arithmetic average of 12 industrial stocks and arrived at a closing value of 40.94. Now, exactly 130 years later, that same benchmark has crossed the historic 50,000 threshold.
Home prices fell for the first time in eight months in March according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.2% month-over-month and was up 0.7% year-over-year, the slowest pace since June 2023.
Since the post-COVID recovery began, U.S. nonfinancial corporations have generally managed capital conservatively. They have kept credit metrics stable and, in many cases, actively improved them. That discipline was not entirely voluntary: The sharp adjustment in funding costs triggered by the Federal Reserve’s 2022–2023 rate hiking cycle raised the bar for incremental borrowing and pushed management teams toward balance sheet restraint.
Chasing performance by deviating from a benchmark has long been the hallmark of active managers. But it may be time for a rethink. Our research suggests that investors allocating to core equities should consider refreshing the criteria they use to identify portfolio managers that can consistently beat their benchmarks.
Industry discussions on Janus Henderson’s ETF lineup are typically centered around its fixed income funds given the firm’s history in this asset class. However, the issuer also has equity ETFs that are garnering attention, which include a fund that’s close to crossing the $1 billion assets under management (AUM) threshold: the Janus Henderson Small-Mid Cap Growth Alpha ETF (JSMD).
Nvidia is now a textbook fit for quality-focused indexes in ETFs given its strong underlying business fundamentals. The company has become the smartest kid in the quality classroom, scoring exceptionally high on metrics like high return on equity (ROE), strong return on invested capital (ROIC), stable earnings growth, and low balance sheet leverage.
Recently, Matthew Bartolini, global head of research strategists at State Street Investment Management, sat down with VettaFi to discuss where inflation stands, opportunities within portfolio construction, and much more.
We separate this article into two parts. Part one is the optimistic case: an AI-induced, productivity-led economic boom in which the benefits spread quickly to society. Part two will address a more bearish outlook: the possibility of a large gap in the distribution of AI's productivity benefits, accruing to corporations much more quickly than to employees.
Global bond yields are reaching frightening levels due to the continued war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Continued high oil prices and the threat of reverberating inflation are causing investors to demand higher yields on government bonds.
With mega tech AI capital expenditure projected to cross a staggering $660 billion to $750 billion, according to estimates from firms like Goldman Sachs, CreditSights and Bloomberg, saying the stakes are high for Nvidia and the AI ecosystem is an understatement. It’s no wonder we can focus on little else this week.
While most institutional investors recognize that private equity and public equity share similar economic risks, they often seem to ignore how their aggregate equity portfolio is affected by their substantial allocation to private equity.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity continued to increase in May. The composite index came in at 8 this month, down slightly from 10 in April but still indicating continued expansion.
There’s a whiff of panic among investors these days. US Treasury yields have climbed to levels unseen in more than a year at the same time as a furious rally has left stocks near all-time highs. Surely, both moves can’t coexist for long, goes the narrative.
The exchange-traded fund marketplace continues to expand. Now with more than $20 trillion in assets under management ($14 trillion in the U.S., growing at an 18% five-year annualized clip), 2026’s volatility and emerging investment themes have taken the universe to new heights.
The rapid deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) is evident; 99% of CEOs say their companies are investing in the technology. Apparently, AI is also quick at garnering assets. Launched less than three months ago, the Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS) is already approaching the $100 million mark in assets under management (AUM).
Turns out, loading up on technology giants isn’t the only route to better returns. Value companies, too, stand a decent chance of trouncing the market — as long as several conditions are met.
Nineteenth-century oil processing plants used simple, column distillation of crude oil to produce kerosene, which was in high demand for lighting lamps. The process also yielded a dangerously flammable byproduct called gasoline which had no obvious use.
That Buffett cash hoard has also created a lot of speculation, innuendo, and assumptions, which is what I want to walk through in today’s discussion. Primarily, what that cash hoard actually represents, the popular theories explaining it, and what it really costs shareholders to hold.
Investors need to understand what they own, how it may perform in different environments, and why it is structured the way it is. When advisors build this education into their work, it gives clients the discipline and expectations they need to stay the course when volatility rears its head.
Student loan debt is a legitimate concern, and the return on a college degree varies enormously by field, institution, and student. The key is to look realistically and specifically at each student’s needs and interests, each family’s finances, and all the sources of funding and support that might be available.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose 1.4% in April to 74.8, markings its third consecutive increase and highest level since November.
Builder confidence posted a modest gain in May despite persistent affordability challenges and economic uncertainty. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose 3 points from April to 37 this month, marking the 25th consecutive negative reading.
Against this challenging macro backdrop, a stark divergence is expected as major retailers report earnings next week. Discounters are projected to perform well, with Walmart (WMT) expected to outpace Target (TGT) by gaining market share from high-income households trading down for groceries, while Target remains more vulnerable due to its heavier mix of discretionary goods.
Explore how Women in ETFs & CFAOC experts believe AI will supplement, not replace, financial professionals.
Investing in emerging markets (EM) used to be synonymous with getting exposure to China. It’s an ideal notion, given that it’s the second largest economy and thus commands a heavy weight in standard EM benchmarks. Challenging that narrative today is a changing geopolitical landscape, which continues as U.S. president Donald Trump visits China in a high-stakes meeting between the two economic superpowers.
According to the Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending climbed for the third consecutive month in April. While headline sales rose 0.5% (as expected), this marked a deceleration from March’s 1.6% surge, with much of the gain driven by higher prices at the pump.
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in April.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
AI infrastructure costs just keep on rising. Big tech firms are likely to invest several trillion dollars over the next few years to satisfy your ChatGPT and Claude habit.
The nearly $13 trillion market isn’t the flashiest outpost on Wall Street, but it’s the vital plumbing that keeps the money flowing. Through repurchase agreements, or repos, firms exchange Treasuries for cash — typically overnight — providing the short‑term funding that underpins trading, settlement and market‑making across the financial system.
Inflation surged to 3.8% year-over-year in April, hitting its highest level in nearly three years. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was slightly above the forecast of 3.7%, driven primarily by cost increases in energy, shelter, and food.
Existing home sales were modestly boosted in April, inching up 0.2% following a 2.9% decline in March. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units, falling just short of the projected 4.05 million.
Gold bugs often claim that when more dollars are in circulation, each dollar buys less; prices rise, and gold, as a store of value, helps protect purchasing power from that decline. As a result, they believe that a rising money supply, in and of itself, is inherently inflationary.
With the war in Iran dragging past the original ceasefire deadline, how might the situation impact global energy markets—and other sectors—from here? To cut through the noise, we asked Luke Pryor, Security of the Future Portfolio Manager and Co-Portfolio Manager of Strategic Equities, to share his oil and gas industry expertise.
Claiming Social Security is one of the most critical financial decisions you will make, serving as a significant factor in determining your financial success in retirement. You must consider several variables: Does it make sense to claim benefits early to improve current cash flow and avoid tapping into other accounts?
Something unusual is happening with U.S. inflation data. While the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has looked relatively cool recently, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation has risen sharply.
Research Affiliates explains how a fundamental growth strategy can outperform traditional market-cap-weighted growth indices.
Retirement is a challenge for countless investors and their advisors. A new report from Goldman Sachs has more.
Global equity markets entered 2025 with a familiar narrative. U.S. leadership remained firm, supported by strong earnings, AI-driven optimism, and a market structure increasingly dominated by a narrow group of large-cap companies. For many investors, the path forward seemed clear: stay anchored to what worked.
Momentum and growth dominated in April 2026, driving the S&P 500 to a massive 10.5% return. Discover the data behind this risk-on shift.
While oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term, we do not view the current disruption as a lasting supply shock. A diplomatic resolution, or even progress toward one, should help bring prices lower by year-end. Although higher oil prices are a headwind, we believe both the economy and equity markets can absorb the impact with limited damage, as underlying fundamentals remain strong.
The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones. The chaos and bad press surrounding private credit funds are not reasons to avoid BDCs. In fact, we think it’s a reason to consider them.
Despite repeated wars, equity markets have delivered strong long-term returns, and in some stretches, market performance appears to have coincided with wartime episodes rather neatly. Viewed through the lens of financial markets, the implication seems almost intuitive: wars have not been bad for investors and may even have been supportive.
Robots are coming to the economy. It is inevitable, really, and there is nothing that will stop it. At some point in the not-so-distant future, robots will infiltrate every aspect of our lives, from office work and manufacturing to service work and trade skills, and even your home. Here are some numbers for you.
We’re going to explore what happened at the Fed, and what changes we can expect. Let’s just say it’s not what some are predicting, at least in my humble opinion. Inflation is sadly a growing problem. And that complicates Kevin Warsh’s coming tenure as Fed chair.
This week marks the busiest of the Q1 2026 earnings season with 3,213 companies expected to report. The S&P 500® is projected to deliver its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth at 15.1%, fueled largely by a powerhouse 46% expansion in the Information Technology sector.
The stock market would love to see nothing more than the labor market holding up. Time and again, we find monetary policy having a beautiful, lagged effect in the jobless claims series. We are of the view that the cumulative 175 basis points of Fed rate cuts that hit the market in 2024 and 2025 is exactly what the labor market needs in 2026-2027. We will soon find out if manufacturing employment continued to mend in April.
When Jamie Dimon turned to competitive threats in his shareholder letter this year, the chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. did something unusual: He named some. Citadel Securities LLC and Revolut Ltd. were two of the firms Dimon picked out.
International deep value stocks are a high-conviction, active position across all GMO Asset Allocation portfolios. We define the deep value group of securities as the cheapest 20% of the market, a broad opportunity set that allows us to construct portfolios that are cheaper than traditional value indexes but still high in quality.
The European Union (EU), pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals, is significantly recalibrating its emissions compliance regime with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This new border tax intends to promote fair competition amid varying emissions rules and costs. Our research suggests it could also offer insight into profitability as the rising costs to meet carbon limits weigh on corporate financial health, creating winners and losers.
Days before his first annual meeting as the chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Greg Abel is facing a problem that seldom confronted his legendary predecessor: a floundering stock price.
As widely expected amid rising oil, rates will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. However, four policymakers dissented. And Fed Chair Powell will stay as governor after his chairmanship ends.
In a recent (unscientific) Franklin Templeton social media poll, we asked investors what they felt was the biggest risk to the global economy over the next 12 months. Nearly half (45%) of respondents highlighted high oil prices as their greatest fear factor.
The long-term shift from traditional pensions to defined contribution (DC) plans puts employees in charge of their retirement savings—and needing help.
If you read my column, you know I am a proponent of following the SHIFT format. First, get the team together to identify who you want to be as a team and what success looks like to you. Make sure everyone is headed toward the same outcome and cares about the same goals.
If venture capital investment is a measure of the economic future, California would seem to have locked things up. In the first quarter of this year — by far the biggest quarter for US VC investment ever — an unheard-of 85% of the money went to California companies, according to the PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor. For all of 2025, California’s share was an also-unprecedented 60%.
The defining feature of a Ponzi scheme is that it persuades investors to pay for future cash flows that, at least in part, don’t actually exist, while creating the impression that those cash flows imply an attractive return on the price investors pay. If we look carefully at the record valuation extremes in the equity market, and the wildly elevated profit margins that investors appear to view as permanent, we can already see the potential for difficult, even tragic outcomes for investors.
Every year, hundreds of thousands of life insurance policies lapse or are surrendered for cash. The policyholders walk away with whatever the carrier offers. Their advisors sign off. Their attorneys see nothing. And nobody asks the obvious question. Could this policy have sold for more?
The chip industry seems to be the only game in town lately. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, known as the SOX, has risen 48% this year. Bourses in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan are riding the wave and hitting record highs, brushing away potential energy shocks from the military conflict over Iran.
The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base.
Factor-Based Investing
S&P 500 Momentum Continued Its Dominant Run in May
Ride the momentum wave. Discover how tech-fueled factors propelled momentum and high-beta ETFs to historic, benchmark-crushing gains.
Reading Between the Lines: NLP for Long-Horizon Factor Investing (Part 1 of 2)
When it comes to systematic investing, numbers tell only part of the story. Traditional quantitative models rely on prices, earnings, and balance sheet data, but words matter too.
The Quiet Erosion Beneath U.S. Growth
The U.S. economy appears resilient, judging from key economic measures. AI-driven capex continues to power investment, support equity markets, and sustain a wealth effect that has propped up consumption. Real GDP growth remains positive. Private sector balance sheets are in generally good condition and many higher income and wealthy households have benefited from equity markets gains.
Late-Stage Mania: “The Worst Thing Ever”
We are expecting inflation in energy prices and a decline in interest rates when the poop hits the AI mania fan. For these reasons, we are overweight in oil stocks and home builders. These industries prospered in the 1970s, once the stock market mania broke in late 1972!
America's Driving Habits: April 2026
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.05% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.02% month-over-month and up 0.40% year-over-year.
Could the ‘I’ in AI Stand for Inflation?
Even if the Middle East war does find a lasting settlement, the specter of inflation appears poised to hang over the markets. Indeed, while employment data had, up until recently, been the primary focus for investors, arguably, inflation reports have now moved into the ‘leaderboard’ position.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
Learn what's in store for the remainder of 2026 and the challenges that lie ahead in our mid-year outlook for U.S. stocks and the economy.
Factor Investing Endures Despite Tough 2025 for Quality Stocks
A strong business isn’t always a winning stock at every moment, and 2025 was a good reminder of that. Developed market equities finished the year up more than 20%, but quality stocks lagged. That’s why Parametric favors a multifactor approach to capture factor risk premia.
AI Stocks Enter a Crucial Month as Major Tech Events Crowd the Calendar
Get ready for a magnificent month, and then some. Mega-cap tech stocks dominate the corporate event calendar in June, already highlighted by NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote address at Computex 2026 in Taiwan earlier this week, one of many major conferences.
Rate Hikes: The Right Medicine at the Wrong Time
Last week, several Fed members signaled the central bank may have to raise interest rates to cool price inflation.
ISM Services PMI: Continued Expansion in May
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.5. This was higher than the forecast of 53.7 and keeps the index in expansion territory for a 23rd consecutive month.
S&P Global Services PMI: Slower Expansion in May
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9 and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: May 2026
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 25.9 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.9, the highest level since 2000.
SpaceX Wants a Fee Cut From IPO Bankers Targeting $500 Million Windfall
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is negotiating to pay razor-thin fees to Wall Street firms handling its IPO — but banks are still likely to rake in about $500 million from the record-setting market debut.
The $13.7 Billion Hedge Fund That’s Betting Big on AGI Infrastructure
If you’re not familiar with the name Leopold Aschenbrenner, you should be. A 24-year-old wunderkind, Aschenbrenner was hired by OpenAI in 2023 to work on the company’s “superalignment” team, essentially trying to figure out how to keep AI systems safe once they become smarter than the people building them.
ProShares Leaders Q&A on Dividend Aristocrat Suite
The ETF landscape includes a wide variety of innovative, intriguing funds that look to meet investor goals. From equities to fixed income, all kinds of strategies offer intriguing spins on areas like income and dividends.
World Markets Watchlist: June 1, 2026
Five of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 1, 2026.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Highest Level Since May 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.0 in May, marking the fastest expansion for the index since May 2022. The latest reading was higher than the 53.3 forecast and is the index's fifth straight month in expansion territory.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Highest Level Since May 2022
U.S. manufacturing hit its highest level in four years, as the S&P Global PMI climbed 0.6 points to 55.1 in May. For a second straight month, the expansion was largely driven by defensive stockpiling as companies continue bracing for supply disruptions and price hikes linked to conflict in the Middle East.
Record Extremes, Alternative Investments, and the Hippo
The essential feature of a useful alternative asset isn’t that it’s unusual or exotic, but that its returns aren’t tightly linked to the risks that already dominate the portfolio. The value of an alternative asset comes from the way it interacts with the other assets in the portfolio.
The Hidden Tax Drag in Municipal Bond Portfolios: What Advisors Are Missing
The assumption that muni equals tax-free is deeply embedded in how the asset class gets discussed and presented. But for high-net-worth clients in high-tax states, the gap between partially exempt and fully exempt is material enough to be worth a conversation.
Dollar Dominance Remains Alive And Well (Part 1)
The dollar is supposed to be dying. We’ve heard that argument for the better part of a decade, and it’s getting louder, not quieter. Dollar dominance isn’t fading. In fact, the events of late April 2026 just delivered the loudest counter-signal in years.
The Retirement Hack Hiding Inside Most DC Plans
Many debates in defined contribution (DC) circles focus on fees, new asset classes, and ever more complex solutions. But the biggest improvement available to plan participants may come from something far simpler: how their fixed income is managed.
Mega IPOs and Institutional Portfolio Risk
The next IPO wave may create a different kind of portfolio challenge for institutions already holding private stakes in companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.
Allocate with Intent: Active Equity Strategies for Changing Markets
Equity investors are facing monumental questions about their allocation strategies in a new market regime. Market concentration has risen sharply, valuations have climbed to record highs in parts of the market and factor volatility has dominated returns.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.5% in April
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up down 0.10% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.50%.
US Funding Markets Are Flooded With Cash That’s Here to Stay
An abundance of cash in US funding markets appears to be driven by deeper structural shifts that are unlocking billions of dollars in balance-sheet capacity at the biggest banks, Wall Street strategists say.
Add Quality to Your International Equities Exposure With QINT
The push for international equities diversification continues amid shifting global macroeconomic conditions. These days, investors have more options when it comes to international exposure. Given the current market uncertainty, they may want to put quality at the forefront of their decision-making process.
Three Reasons to Stick with Growth Stocks in Rotating Markets
US growth stocks underperformed in early 2026 amid AI disruption fears and an unresolved conflict in the Middle East. But these stresses could create favorable conditions for selective, diversified investors to unlock long-term growth potential in a rotating market.
45 Million Americans Hit the Road This Weekend Despite $4.50 Gas
Despite these higher costs, a projected 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home this weekend, setting a new record. Close to 40 million will drive while some 3.7 million will fly.
130 Years of the Dow: Why It Still Matters for Advisors
On May 26, 1896, Charles Dow calculated a simple arithmetic average of 12 industrial stocks and arrived at a closing value of 40.94. Now, exactly 130 years later, that same benchmark has crossed the historic 50,000 threshold.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index: Housing Slowdown Intensifies
Home prices fell for the first time in eight months in March according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.2% month-over-month and was up 0.7% year-over-year, the slowest pace since June 2023.
AI Credit Expansion: Assessing the Micro and Macro Risks
Since the post-COVID recovery began, U.S. nonfinancial corporations have generally managed capital conservatively. They have kept credit metrics stable and, in many cases, actively improved them. That discipline was not entirely voluntary: The sharp adjustment in funding costs triggered by the Federal Reserve’s 2022–2023 rate hiking cycle raised the bar for incremental borrowing and pushed management teams toward balance sheet restraint.
How to Recognize Alpha Potential in Active Equity Portfolios
Chasing performance by deviating from a benchmark has long been the hallmark of active managers. But it may be time for a rethink. Our research suggests that investors allocating to core equities should consider refreshing the criteria they use to identify portfolio managers that can consistently beat their benchmarks.
This Janus Henderson SMID-Cap ETF is Creeping Up on $1 Billion
Industry discussions on Janus Henderson’s ETF lineup are typically centered around its fixed income funds given the firm’s history in this asset class. However, the issuer also has equity ETFs that are garnering attention, which include a fund that’s close to crossing the $1 billion assets under management (AUM) threshold: the Janus Henderson Small-Mid Cap Growth Alpha ETF (JSMD).
Nvidia Cements Its Quality Characteristics After Q1 Earnings Beat
Nvidia is now a textbook fit for quality-focused indexes in ETFs given its strong underlying business fundamentals. The company has become the smartest kid in the quality classroom, scoring exceptionally high on metrics like high return on equity (ROE), strong return on invested capital (ROIC), stable earnings growth, and low balance sheet leverage.
Matt Bartolini Talks Inflation-Resilient Portfolios & More
Recently, Matthew Bartolini, global head of research strategists at State Street Investment Management, sat down with VettaFi to discuss where inflation stands, opportunities within portfolio construction, and much more.
The AI Economy: A Look Beyond the Facade
We separate this article into two parts. Part one is the optimistic case: an AI-induced, productivity-led economic boom in which the benefits spread quickly to society. Part two will address a more bearish outlook: the possibility of a large gap in the distribution of AI's productivity benefits, accruing to corporations much more quickly than to employees.
Are Climbing Bond Yields a Signal to the Fed to Raise Interest Rates?
Global bond yields are reaching frightening levels due to the continued war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Continued high oil prices and the threat of reverberating inflation are causing investors to demand higher yields on government bonds.
It’s Nvidia’s World: How Advisors See the Next Phase of AI
With mega tech AI capital expenditure projected to cross a staggering $660 billion to $750 billion, according to estimates from firms like Goldman Sachs, CreditSights and Bloomberg, saying the stakes are high for Nvidia and the AI ecosystem is an understatement. It’s no wonder we can focus on little else this week.
What Barbarians Like to Take Private
While most institutional investors recognize that private equity and public equity share similar economic risks, they often seem to ignore how their aggregate equity portfolio is affected by their substantial allocation to private equity.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Continued to Increase in May
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity continued to increase in May. The composite index came in at 8 this month, down slightly from 10 in April but still indicating continued expansion.
High Bond Yields Are What America Needs in the AI Era
There’s a whiff of panic among investors these days. US Treasury yields have climbed to levels unseen in more than a year at the same time as a furious rally has left stocks near all-time highs. Surely, both moves can’t coexist for long, goes the narrative.
The ETF Universe Keeps Expanding. So Does the Complexity of Tracking It.
The exchange-traded fund marketplace continues to expand. Now with more than $20 trillion in assets under management ($14 trillion in the U.S., growing at an 18% five-year annualized clip), 2026’s volatility and emerging investment themes have taken the universe to new heights.
AI-Driven ETF Close to Hitting $100M in Just 3 Months
The rapid deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) is evident; 99% of CEOs say their companies are investing in the technology. Apparently, AI is also quick at garnering assets. Launched less than three months ago, the Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS) is already approaching the $100 million mark in assets under management (AUM).
Value Stocks With Earnings Strength Post 3,500% Run Since 2000
Turns out, loading up on technology giants isn’t the only route to better returns. Value companies, too, stand a decent chance of trouncing the market — as long as several conditions are met.
Oil Prices Spill Over
Nineteenth-century oil processing plants used simple, column distillation of crude oil to produce kerosene, which was in high demand for lighting lamps. The process also yielded a dangerously flammable byproduct called gasoline which had no obvious use.
Buffett Cash Hoard: Why $397 Billion Sits On The Sidelines
That Buffett cash hoard has also created a lot of speculation, innuendo, and assumptions, which is what I want to walk through in today’s discussion. Primarily, what that cash hoard actually represents, the popular theories explaining it, and what it really costs shareholders to hold.
What ‘Smart Defense’ Actually Means in Practice
Investors need to understand what they own, how it may perform in different environments, and why it is structured the way it is. When advisors build this education into their work, it gives clients the discipline and expectations they need to stay the course when volatility rears its head.
Is Education As Unaffordable As It Seems?
Student loan debt is a legitimate concern, and the return on a college degree varies enormously by field, institution, and student. The key is to look realistically and specifically at each student’s needs and interests, each family’s finances, and all the sources of funding and support that might be available.
Pending Home Sales Up for Third Straight Month
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose 1.4% in April to 74.8, markings its third consecutive increase and highest level since November.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Persist
Builder confidence posted a modest gain in May despite persistent affordability challenges and economic uncertainty. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose 3 points from April to 37 this month, marking the 25th consecutive negative reading.
Retailers and Nvidia Close Out a Season Marked by Robust Growth
Against this challenging macro backdrop, a stark divergence is expected as major retailers report earnings next week. Discounters are projected to perform well, with Walmart (WMT) expected to outpace Target (TGT) by gaining market share from high-income households trading down for groceries, while Target remains more vulnerable due to its heavier mix of discretionary goods.
Will I Be Replaced? Decoding the $1.5T AI Disruption in Finance
Explore how Women in ETFs & CFAOC experts believe AI will supplement, not replace, financial professionals.
The Ex-China Files: ETFs to Watch Amid Trump’s High-Stakes Visit
Investing in emerging markets (EM) used to be synonymous with getting exposure to China. It’s an ideal notion, given that it’s the second largest economy and thus commands a heavy weight in standard EM benchmarks. Challenging that narrative today is a changing geopolitical landscape, which continues as U.S. president Donald Trump visits China in a high-stakes meeting between the two economic superpowers.
Retail Sales: Consumer Spending Rises for Third Straight Month
According to the Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending climbed for the third consecutive month in April. While headline sales rose 0.5% (as expected), this marked a deceleration from March’s 1.6% surge, with much of the gain driven by higher prices at the pump.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.2% of Workers in April 2026
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in April.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: April 2026
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
AI’s Big Guns Have a Serious Inflation Problem
AI infrastructure costs just keep on rising. Big tech firms are likely to invest several trillion dollars over the next few years to satisfy your ChatGPT and Claude habit.
Wall Street Puts Blockchain to Work in $13 Trillion Repo Market
The nearly $13 trillion market isn’t the flashiest outpost on Wall Street, but it’s the vital plumbing that keeps the money flowing. Through repurchase agreements, or repos, firms exchange Treasuries for cash — typically overnight — providing the short‑term funding that underpins trading, settlement and market‑making across the financial system.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation at 3.8% in April
Inflation surged to 3.8% year-over-year in April, hitting its highest level in nearly three years. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was slightly above the forecast of 3.7%, driven primarily by cost increases in energy, shelter, and food.
Existing Home Sales Modestly Boosted in April
Existing home sales were modestly boosted in April, inching up 0.2% following a 2.9% decline in March. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units, falling just short of the projected 4.05 million.
Gold Bugs Faulty Thesis: M2 & Inflation
Gold bugs often claim that when more dollars are in circulation, each dollar buys less; prices rise, and gold, as a store of value, helps protect purchasing power from that decline. As a result, they believe that a rising money supply, in and of itself, is inherently inflationary.
Iran War Fallout: The Real Market Risks Aren’t Just Oil
With the war in Iran dragging past the original ceasefire deadline, how might the situation impact global energy markets—and other sectors—from here? To cut through the noise, we asked Luke Pryor, Security of the Future Portfolio Manager and Co-Portfolio Manager of Strategic Equities, to share his oil and gas industry expertise.
Three Strategic Options for Adjusting your Social Security Claim
Claiming Social Security is one of the most critical financial decisions you will make, serving as a significant factor in determining your financial success in retirement. You must consider several variables: Does it make sense to claim benefits early to improve current cash flow and avoid tapping into other accounts?
U.S. Inflation Measures Tell Two Different Stories
Something unusual is happening with U.S. inflation data. While the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has looked relatively cool recently, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation has risen sharply.
Rethinking Growth: Why Glamour Isn't a Proxy for Performance
Research Affiliates explains how a fundamental growth strategy can outperform traditional market-cap-weighted growth indices.
Goldman Sachs’ 2025 Retirement Investing Report: 3 Takeaways
Retirement is a challenge for countless investors and their advisors. A new report from Goldman Sachs has more.
Why Global, Why Active, Why Now
Global equity markets entered 2025 with a familiar narrative. U.S. leadership remained firm, supported by strong earnings, AI-driven optimism, and a market structure increasingly dominated by a narrow group of large-cap companies. For many investors, the path forward seemed clear: stay anchored to what worked.
As a Matter of Factor, Momentum & Growth Dominated April
Momentum and growth dominated in April 2026, driving the S&P 500 to a massive 10.5% return. Discover the data behind this risk-on shift.
Strong Fundamentals Poised to Offset Oil Price Headwinds
While oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term, we do not view the current disruption as a lasting supply shock. A diplomatic resolution, or even progress toward one, should help bring prices lower by year-end. Although higher oil prices are a headwind, we believe both the economy and equity markets can absorb the impact with limited damage, as underlying fundamentals remain strong.
BDCs: Not All Yield Is Created Equal
The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones. The chaos and bad press surrounding private credit funds are not reasons to avoid BDCs. In fact, we think it’s a reason to consider them.
Wars, Markets and Economic Growth
Despite repeated wars, equity markets have delivered strong long-term returns, and in some stretches, market performance appears to have coincided with wartime episodes rather neatly. Viewed through the lens of financial markets, the implication seems almost intuitive: wars have not been bad for investors and may even have been supportive.
A Robot Economy: Who Gets Rich, Who Gets Left Behind
Robots are coming to the economy. It is inevitable, really, and there is nothing that will stop it. At some point in the not-so-distant future, robots will infiltrate every aspect of our lives, from office work and manufacturing to service work and trade skills, and even your home. Here are some numbers for you.
WWWD?
We’re going to explore what happened at the Fed, and what changes we can expect. Let’s just say it’s not what some are predicting, at least in my humble opinion. Inflation is sadly a growing problem. And that complicates Kevin Warsh’s coming tenure as Fed chair.
Earnings Strength Takes Center Stage as the Busiest Week of the Q1 Season Arrives
This week marks the busiest of the Q1 2026 earnings season with 3,213 companies expected to report. The S&P 500® is projected to deliver its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth at 15.1%, fueled largely by a powerhouse 46% expansion in the Information Technology sector.
Robust 2026-2027 Earnings Growth is a Live Probability
The stock market would love to see nothing more than the labor market holding up. Time and again, we find monetary policy having a beautiful, lagged effect in the jobless claims series. We are of the view that the cumulative 175 basis points of Fed rate cuts that hit the market in 2024 and 2025 is exactly what the labor market needs in 2026-2027. We will soon find out if manufacturing employment continued to mend in April.
Jamie Dimon Is Competing With Everyone. He’s Not Alone
When Jamie Dimon turned to competitive threats in his shareholder letter this year, the chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. did something unusual: He named some. Citadel Securities LLC and Revolut Ltd. were two of the firms Dimon picked out.
How A “Big Bet” Remains Poised for Future Outperformance
International deep value stocks are a high-conviction, active position across all GMO Asset Allocation portfolios. We define the deep value group of securities as the cheapest 20% of the market, a broad opportunity set that allows us to construct portfolios that are cheaper than traditional value indexes but still high in quality.
Carbon Emissions Compliance May Redefine Corporate Strength
The European Union (EU), pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals, is significantly recalibrating its emissions compliance regime with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This new border tax intends to promote fair competition amid varying emissions rules and costs. Our research suggests it could also offer insight into profitability as the rising costs to meet carbon limits weigh on corporate financial health, creating winners and losers.
Berkshire’s Ailing Share Price Clouds Abel’s First Annual Meeting as CEO
Days before his first annual meeting as the chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Greg Abel is facing a problem that seldom confronted his legendary predecessor: a floundering stock price.
Powell's Swan Song: Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged
As widely expected amid rising oil, rates will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. However, four policymakers dissented. And Fed Chair Powell will stay as governor after his chairmanship ends.
Are Markets Complacent?
In a recent (unscientific) Franklin Templeton social media poll, we asked investors what they felt was the biggest risk to the global economy over the next 12 months. Nearly half (45%) of respondents highlighted high oil prices as their greatest fear factor.
DC Sponsors Can Help Turn the Retirement Puzzle into a Plan
The long-term shift from traditional pensions to defined contribution (DC) plans puts employees in charge of their retirement savings—and needing help.
How to Effectively Navigate Your Team’s Diverging Work Styles
If you read my column, you know I am a proponent of following the SHIFT format. First, get the team together to identify who you want to be as a team and what success looks like to you. Make sure everyone is headed toward the same outcome and cares about the same goals.
Is California a Harbinger of the AI Job Disruption?
If venture capital investment is a measure of the economic future, California would seem to have locked things up. In the first quarter of this year — by far the biggest quarter for US VC investment ever — an unheard-of 85% of the money went to California companies, according to the PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor. For all of 2025, California’s share was an also-unprecedented 60%.
Causes and Conditions
The defining feature of a Ponzi scheme is that it persuades investors to pay for future cash flows that, at least in part, don’t actually exist, while creating the impression that those cash flows imply an attractive return on the price investors pay. If we look carefully at the record valuation extremes in the equity market, and the wildly elevated profit margins that investors appear to view as permanent, we can already see the potential for difficult, even tragic outcomes for investors.
The Fiduciary Question Nobody Is Asking About Life Insurance
Every year, hundreds of thousands of life insurance policies lapse or are surrendered for cash. The policyholders walk away with whatever the carrier offers. Their advisors sign off. Their attorneys see nothing. And nobody asks the obvious question. Could this policy have sold for more?
This Chip Supercycle Has One Collective Blind Spot
The chip industry seems to be the only game in town lately. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, known as the SOX, has risen 48% this year. Bourses in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan are riding the wave and hitting record highs, brushing away potential energy shocks from the military conflict over Iran.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base.