The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, dropped to 44.3 in January from 44.9 in December, marking the fifth straight month in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity. This reading comes in below the Investing.com forecast of 45.0.
Factor-Based Investing
Market Cap to GDP: Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 140.1%, down from 146.7% the previous quarter.
5 Dividend Growth Stocks Offering A Margin of Safety
During uncertain economic times – as we are experiencing currently – the ever-important principles of valuation and margin of safety become even more important.
P/E10: January 2022 Update
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Regional Differences in European GDP Trends
On Monday, Germany’s GDP print for the final quarter of 2022 came out below expectations of 0.0% by -2%.
Meta Shares Soar as Zuckerberg Declares 'Year of Efficiency'
Meta Platforms Inc.’s shares soared more than 20%, on track for their biggest gain in 10 years, after Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to make the social media giant leaner, more efficient and more decisive.
Don’t Call This a Flash Crash!
US market structure was back in the news recently with several stocks experiencing irregular price movements on the morning of January 24.
The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: January Update
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Note: This update includes January close data.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 3K, Better Than Forecast
This morning's seasonally adjusted 183K new claims, down 3k from the previous week's unrevised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 200K.
Beware of Wall Street's Groundhog Predictions
Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast is appreciated as a bit of inconsequential fun; nobody takes it too seriously. Unfortunately, that’s not the case on Wall Street.
US Keeps Quarterly Debt Sales Steady Ahead of Debt-Limit Endgame
The US Treasury held steady its quarterly sales of longer-term debt, matching widespread expectations among bond dealers, given the standoff in Washington over expanding the government’s borrowing authority.
Morgan Stanley Makes Historic ETF Comeback With Six New Funds
Three decades after helping give birth to the ETF industry, Morgan Stanley is officially back in the game in what could be a milestone moment for the investing world.
Blackstone's $69 Billion Real Estate Fund Hit Monthly Redemption Limit in January
Blackstone Inc.’s $69 billion real estate trust hit a monthly redemption limit in January, as the firm’s crown jewel continues to wrestle with a line of investors seeking to get money out.
Wall Street Is Obsessed With ChatGPT. These Are the AI Stocks to Watch
A $480 billion chipmaker whose processors are used for complex computing tasks. A digital-media company seeking to mine nascent technologies for content.
Wall Street Shrugs Off 'Fed’s Tough Talk' to Cheer Smaller Hikes
Wall Street had widely expected that the Federal Reserve would ease up on its pace of rate hikes to battle inflation on Wednesday.
Fed Slows Rate Hikes, Signals Further Increases Are Coming
The Federal Reserve slowed its drive to rein in inflation and said further interest-rate hikes are in store as officials debate when to end their most aggressive tightening of credit in four decades.
What to Watch
The market has high hopes for the Fed, however, comparing this to the Fed’s own expectations, we see a very different narrative.
Where is the Recession?
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
How "0DTE" Options Will Cause the Next Black Monday
A trading tool like portfolio insurance is poised to trigger a stunning display of market instability.
ISM Manufacturing Index Continues Contraction in January
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for January. The latest headline purchasing managers index (PMI) was 47.4, down 1.0 from the previous month and in contraction territory. This marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 48.0.
Trying to Make Apple Juice from Oranges: The Problem with Comparing Market Pricing and Fed Projections
As investors seek to pinpoint market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, it’s critical to consider not just rate projections and derivatives pricing, but the degree of uncertainty and distribution of outcomes.
Is the Fed Winning the Inflation War?
In anticipation of tomorrow’s rate decision, we saw another indicator today that the Federal Reserve has been successful in stemming the tide of inflation.
January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Declining Further
The January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.9, up 0.7 from the final December figure, and marginally better than the Investing.com forecast of 46.8. However, this marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Is the Bubble About to Burst?
I chose the topic for this month’s Absolute Return Letter during the Christmas break.
How to Maintain and Grow Your Email Subscribers
I’ll share strategies you can use to grow your list, manage it, and connect with subscribers effectively – broken down into four steps you can easily accomplish over a month.
Housing Slump From US to China Adds Risks to Global Economy
Shaky property markets across much of the world pose another risk to the global economy as higher interest rates erode household finances and threaten to exacerbate falling prices.
Traders See AI Tech Shaping Their Future, JPMorgan Finds
Traders are betting artificial intelligence and machine learning will have the biggest impact on financial markets in the coming years.
Wall Street's Feel-Good Start to 2023 Sets Up Perilous Fed Day
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
Bitcoin Is About to Test the Adage 'Don't Fight the Fed'
This year’s 40% rally in Bitcoin is heading toward a potentially big test in the shape of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision.
Moving Averages: S&P Closes Month Up 6.18%, Best January Finish Since 2019
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed January with a monthly gain of 6.18%, it's highest since 2019, after a loss of 5.9% in December. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, one of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Continue to Climb for 5th Week In A Row
As of January 30, the price of regular and premium gas were up 7 and 8 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.89 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.09. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.90 and is down 4.6% from last week.
A True Story of the Cost of Inaction
How many times have your clients or employees stalled and failed to take action? And then their stall had you managing the fallout?
Corporate Health Weakens as Pricing Power Falls Sharply
A plunge in pricing power was one of the most notable developments we found in our latest quarterly survey of our credit analysts, who follow more than two dozen industries.
Earnings Season Takes Center Stage
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
US Budget Season Implications for the Muni Market
A slowdown in US economic activity this year is likely to impact most states, which could face budget deficits, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bonds.
A Sharpe Rebuke
We are closing in on what we think may be the question of the decade. If a majority of stock market capitalization in the US is passive or indexed, does this cause problems for stock markets?
Consumer Confidence Declines in January
The headline number of 107.1 was a decrease of 1.9 from the upwardly revised final reading of 109.0 for December.
Chicago PMI Down in January, Worse Than Forecast
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, dropped to 44.3 in January from 44.9 in December, marking the fifth straight month in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity. This reading comes in below the Investing.com forecast of 45.0.
November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues Decline
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% decrease month over month. The MoM is reduced to -1.2% after adjusting for inflation. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 7.7% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.1% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices decreased by 0.1% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 8.2% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is was unchanged in November and up 1% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
4Q 2022 GMO Quarterly Letter
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
Yellen Sees Low Inflation as More Likely Long-Term Challenge
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said persistently weak inflation is likely to return as a long-term challenge for the economy and policymakers once pandemic-era distortions behind the recent surge subside and prices cool.
Top Bond Fund Bets Markets Are Wrong on Rates, Again
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
World Markets Update: January 30, 2023
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 30, 2023. The top performer continues to be Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a YTD gain of 11.57%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 9.40%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 8.64%. Coming in last for the fourth straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 2.20% YTD.
Stocks Decreasing to Start the Busy Week
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
The Labor Market Is Still Historically Tight
With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now.
Performance Persistence Matters
Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Historic Crash for Memory Chips Threatens to Wipe Out Earnings
The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Why Have Equal-Weighted Portfolios Outperformed the Market?
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
Dollar's Decline Is a Rare Nasdaq Tailwind as Earnings Loom
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Bitcoin Barrels Toward Historic January as Crypto Market Jumps by $280 Billion
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Fed's Wall Street Clash Sets Stage for Powell’s Hawkish Message
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Stocks Are Poised to Hit New Lows This Year, Survey of Investors Shows
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Panasonic Sees Potential for Another EV Battery Plant in US
Elon Musk’s response to wavering demand and recession risk is pretty clear: slash prices, keep increasing capacity and try to continue growing even if it means sacrificing profit margin in the short term.
BuzzFeed Shares Surge 120% on Plans to Embrace OpenAI
BuzzFeed Inc. shares surged by a record on news that the digital-media company plans to use OpenAI to bolster some of its content creation.
Key Inflation Gauge Cools Further, Paving Way for Smaller Fed Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual paces in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping pave the way for policymakers to further scale back the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Investors Flock to European Stocks Leaving US Behind, BofA Says
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Debt-Ceiling Saga Puts the Treasury’s Financing Estimates Under Scrutiny
The US Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates due next week will be closely watched to gauge the department’s view on how the debt-ceiling drama will unfold.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
An Inside Look at the GDP Q4 Advance Estimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Things in Atlanta are Dropping Like a Stone
The Atlanta Fed Flexible CPI is a price series developed by the Atlanta Fed to capture the price of items that change the most frequently.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
Looking for Inflation Reduction Act Rebates to Go Green? Get Ready to Wait
For Americans with a New Year’s resolution to trade in their gas furnace or water heater for climate-friendly heat pumps, a word of caution: Generous Inflation Reduction Act rebates for home electrification took effect on Jan. 1, but they won’t actually be available to homeowners until year’s end or 2024 at the earliest, according the US Department of Energy.
How Does Donating to Charity Reduce Taxes?
Here’s an article to help clients better understand the tax benefits of charitable contributions.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
White House Under Pressure to Develop a 'Plan B' on Student Debt
The Biden administration is under pressure from Capitol Hill lawmakers and student debt advocates to develop contingency plans to cancel billions of dollars in student debt and to move forward quickly if the Supreme Court strikes down the administration’s initial executive action.
Tesla Gets $5 Billion Credit Line in Sign It's Nearing Investment-Grade Status
Tesla Inc. has secured a new $5 billion revolving credit facility, another sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
US Economy Shows Slowdown Signs After Growing 2.9% Last Quarter
The US economy grew faster than forecast into the end of 2022, but there were signs of slowing underlying demand as the steepest interest-rate hikes in decades threaten growth this year.
Big Tech Binged on Workers During Covid. Now, the Purge
The layoff announcements coming lately from the chief executive officers of big technology companies all contain variations on the theme of “we hired too many people during the pandemic,” expressed with varying degrees of contrition.
Five Things to Watch For in the Debt-Ceiling Talks
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
Funding Special Needs Clients with ABLE Accounts
Special needs trusts and ABLE accounts are the pillars of special needs funding. I have a professional here to discuss the differences between them and how each can be used to maximize financial resources. This includes protecting government benefits, understanding eligibility requirements, guidelines for use, and funding options. The discussion will explain how you can best support families to provide quality of life and a lifetime of care.
The “Pain Trade” Is Higher For Now
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Was Flat
The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined to 3. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Why the Fed Should Raise Rates by Half a Percent
Having oscillated between anticipating another 50-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve next week or a downshift to 25 basis points, traders have settled solidly on the latter, guided both by Fed officials’ comments and by media reports.
We Asked ChatGPT to Make a Market-Beating ETF. Here’s What Happened
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
$1 Trillion Green Investment Matches Fossil Fuels for First Time
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Big Oil Faces Headwinds After Record $199 Billion Profit Haul
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Musk's Big Tesla Growth Target Is a Problem
It pays to parse the language of any company’s earnings report, but perhaps more so for Tesla Inc. You could say it’s in the corporate genes.
Popular 401(k) Funds Rebound After Tanking in 2022
Checking your 401(k) account balance is a little less painful these days.
Selecting the Best Dividend Growth Stocks for Total Return: Part 2
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.