Emerging Markets

Central banks continued to stockpile gold in the first quarter.

As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.

Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.

Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.

After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.

Market headlines may change daily, but the role of a financial advisor remains remarkably consistent: to be the calm in the storm, the strategist with a plan and—most importantly—the voice of reason when clients need it most.

Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.

When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.

Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.

Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.

Record gold prices drove first-quarter demand in 2025 to the highest level since 2016.

A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.

Markets clawed back early losses in April, but one thing has become clear – policy uncertainty and risk isn’t fading, it’s spreading.

If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.

This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.

The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.

While the S&P 500 index was almost unchanged in April, the dollar remained extremely weak, ending the month down over 4%.

April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.

Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.

For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.

Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.

In the early years of the artificial intelligence (AI) race, performance benchmarks told a clear story: a handful of frontier models, developed by a few dominant labs, consistently outperformed the rest. In 2024, that changed.

A massive budget bill of tax and spending cuts, as well as a debt ceiling debate loom as Congress returns from its Easter recess.

First, let’s check the market action. Fortunately for stocks, the public has come around to a thesis that the sky is not falling, though there are a ton of market viewers who remain decidedly skeptical that the worst is behind us.

The current level of tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US goods going into China amounts to a trade embargo between the two countries.

Despite the recent rally, the correction continues. While wanting to “buy the dip” is tempting, there has been enough technical damage to warrant remaining cautious in the near term.

After the U.S. imposed substantial tariffs on China, Beijing responded with tariffs of its own and with restrictions on exports of seven rare earth minerals. The latter action will be a particular hindrance to American manufacturers.

Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.

Think of the drafting process like investing—scouts meticulously rank players based on their strength, speed, flexibility, and mental acuity, much like we analyze the economy and financial markets to shape our outlook. The true value of these players might take years to unfold...

The markets rebounded strongly last week, holding ground despite the lingering cloud of uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations. Importantly, while tariffs and dollar weakness are stirring short-term concerns, long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, setting a strong case for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates.

American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.

Peak earnings season kicks off this week, with 7,600 companies, or 70% of our equity universe expected to report over the next three weeks.

President Donald Trump’s recent executive order revives many of the SDI’s ambitions, albeit with a modern twist. His January 27 directive launched what he first called an “Iron Dome for America,” later rebranded as the “Golden Dome.”

Unexpected wider and larger-scope tariff announcements have sent tremors through bond and equity markets, resulting in a brisk sell-off that signals investors’ caution.

Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.

I don’t believe the current level of tariffs will be maintained. I think most of them will be walked back, and the country will adapt to, say, a 10% tariff here and there. The Chinese (and a few other countries) tariffs are different in that they will have a more significant impact.

U.S. policy uncertainty and the ebbs and flows of AI advancement are likely to stoke continued volatility in the world’s stock markets.

In the Middle Ages, a common form of punishment was some form of mutilation, which included cutting off the nose of a prisoner or purposefully marring one’s own appearance before the arrival of conquering armies

There's a tectonic shift unfolding in global finance—subtle in appearance, but profound in implication. The traditional signposts of market anxiety—stocks, bonds, even crypto—are being bypassed in favor of something far older: gold.

The US is running a substantial net trade deficit with the European Union (EU). Europe has a surplus—but with more exports at risk, it also has the weaker position in a potential trade conflict.

Asia-Pacific will likely be the hardest hit region from a steep increase in U.S. tariffs.

A raft of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US could bruise China’s export revenues in the short term. But its domestically focused economic engine and shrinking dependency on US trade should minimize fallout in the long run.

Risk-assets struggled amidst extremely volatile price action as investors weighed the probabilities of tariffs hitting profits and valuations.

As major tech firms like Apple and Microsoft report, they face questions about the impact of tariffs. Q1 results may be discounted, with strength seen as pre-tariff demand.

Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is a key driver of our forecast this quarter, which includes an increased probability of a recession.