US inflation rose by less than forecast in April amid tame prices for clothing and new cars, suggesting little urgency so far by companies to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.
Global AI, a US tech firm, plans to collaborate with a Saudi Arabian artificial intelligence venture, Humain, in an agreement expected to be worth billions of dollars, according to a person familiar with the mattter.
A wave of municipal-bond sales scheduled for this week will test a recent rebound in buyer demand after investors sold their holdings during April’s market rout.
China and the U.S. conducted their first formal trade talks of 2025 over the weekend. And on Monday, May 12, they announced the outcome of their negotiations.
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
Today Tesla is not trading based on car sales but on future dreams of self-driving robo-taxis, robots, semis, and whatever else Elon dreams up. The car company may be worth $100 billion to $180 billion; the rest is what investors are willing to pay for Elon’s dreams.
The dollar soared and Treasuries fell as the trade war between China and the US eased, stoking appetite for risk assets.
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products in a dramatic ratcheting down of trade tensions that buys the world’s two largest economies three months to work toward a broader agreement.
With Wall Street kicking off another rally, American stocks are now trading like Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” shock never happened.
I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks.
Warren Buffett opened his 60th—and final as CEO—Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with the same understated clarity that has defined his career: "This is my 60th annual meeting... I think it'll be the best yet."
As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.
US equity investors will be watching closely as trade talks kick off between the Trump administration and China, with trillions of dollars hanging in the balance for American companies.
US stocks opened higher Friday as traders weighed comments from President Donald Trump suggesting that an 80% tariff on China seemed right, just as negotiations between the two countries are set to begin on Saturday.
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
Central banks continued to stockpile gold in the first quarter.
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
The US said it’s developing a fast-track process for screening foreign investments in the US, an effort Trump administration officials expect could smooth the way for billions from wealth funds in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
US stocks climbed at the open Thursday as investors welcomed news of a trade agreement between the US and the UK — a widely anticipated development that some traders say could serve as a blueprint for broader global negotiations
Markets are desperate for good news about tariffs — or no news at all. It only took a pause on the reciprocal tariffs and vague promises of future trade deals for the bond market to stabilize and stocks to recover.
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
Market headlines may change daily, but the role of a financial advisor remains remarkably consistent: to be the calm in the storm, the strategist with a plan and—most importantly—the voice of reason when clients need it most.
Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.
When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
US stocks jumped at the open Wednesday as investors were encouraged by news that the US and China are set to start trade talks this weekend, even as traders awaited the Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day.
Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
So what has caused such a surge in international returns versus the U.S. so far this year? Is it just short-term noise, reversion to the mean, or something more systematic? If the last few months were purely short-term noise, we will soon know, as U.S. stocks will resume dominance.
Record gold prices drove first-quarter demand in 2025 to the highest level since 2016.
April's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Markets clawed back early losses in April, but one thing has become clear – policy uncertainty and risk isn’t fading, it’s spreading.
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
Jim Tuchler, a Chicago-area retailer, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have a lot in common these days.
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
While the S&P 500 index was almost unchanged in April, the dollar remained extremely weak, ending the month down over 4%.
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
At the end of April, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered approximately $360 billion of new money.
Amazon.com Inc. said it’s bracing for a tougher business climate in the coming months, echoing concerns from a range of companies that tariffs and related economic turmoil could crimp consumer spending.
US stock futures rose Friday, putting the S&P 500 Index on track to post the longest winning streak in more than 20 years after a government report showed buoyant hiring in April, providing evidence of resilience in an economy beset by trade pressures.
Apple Inc. received at least two downgrades on Friday, following quarterly results that reinforced concerns over tariffs and its growth potential.
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
In the early years of the artificial intelligence (AI) race, performance benchmarks told a clear story: a handful of frontier models, developed by a few dominant labs, consistently outperformed the rest. In 2024, that changed.
A spate of solid corporate earnings pushed US stocks higher in overnight trading, putting major indexes on track for an eighth straight advance and close to wiping out all of the losses suffered after Donald Trump’s major tariff announcement.
A massive budget bill of tax and spending cuts, as well as a debt ceiling debate loom as Congress returns from its Easter recess.
First, let’s check the market action. Fortunately for stocks, the public has come around to a thesis that the sky is not falling, though there are a ton of market viewers who remain decidedly skeptical that the worst is behind us.
The current level of tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US goods going into China amounts to a trade embargo between the two countries.
Despite the recent rally, the correction continues. While wanting to “buy the dip” is tempting, there has been enough technical damage to warrant remaining cautious in the near term.
After the U.S. imposed substantial tariffs on China, Beijing responded with tariffs of its own and with restrictions on exports of seven rare earth minerals. The latter action will be a particular hindrance to American manufacturers.
When Meta Platforms Inc. reports earnings on Wednesday afternoon, the social media giant will face a high hurdle to satisfy anxious investors.
One of the best-known market trends, the “sell in May” effect is backed by decades of historical performance: Investing in a fund that debuted in 1993 and tracks the S&P 500 during the May-October period yielded a cumulative return of 171%, compared to a 731% gain for November-April, an analysis from Bespoke Investment Group found.
Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
Think of the drafting process like investing—scouts meticulously rank players based on their strength, speed, flexibility, and mental acuity, much like we analyze the economy and financial markets to shape our outlook. The true value of these players might take years to unfold...
The markets rebounded strongly last week, holding ground despite the lingering cloud of uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations. Importantly, while tariffs and dollar weakness are stirring short-term concerns, long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, setting a strong case for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates.
Ultimately, advisors should choose a rebalancing strategy that best serves their client’s needs without putting undue strain on their own operations.
US stocks traded steady on Tuesday as traders digested a slew of corporate earnings results and parsed comments from the White House about trade negotiations.
Europe’s automakers were huge beneficiaries of globalization, but now the hangover has arrived — and Porsche AG and Volvo Car AB look particularly sickly.
The panic over the years has inevitably influenced policy even if heeding cooler heads would offer reassurance. Which brings us to the current US administration.
American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.
Peak earnings season kicks off this week, with 7,600 companies, or 70% of our equity universe expected to report over the next three weeks.
President Donald Trump’s recent executive order revives many of the SDI’s ambitions, albeit with a modern twist. His January 27 directive launched what he first called an “Iron Dome for America,” later rebranded as the “Golden Dome.”
Unexpected wider and larger-scope tariff announcements have sent tremors through bond and equity markets, resulting in a brisk sell-off that signals investors’ caution.
We have good and bad news for investors who want to know whether the stock market will soar, stall, or plummet. First, the good news. This article presents a market path for what lies ahead. Unfortunately, the “right” path lies among three likely scenarios.
Emerging-market stocks rose for a second day, with the benchmark gauge heading for a three-week high amid optimism over corporate earnings.
The “Sell America” trade that gripped markets this month has left a potentially lasting dent in investors’ willingness to hold the US government’s longest-maturity debt, a mainstay of its deficit-financing toolkit.
The last time Big Tech delivered earnings, Donald Trump had just started his second term, stocks were soaring on expectations of a pro-growth agenda and investors’ main worry was how long it would take companies to convert their artificial intelligence spending into profits.
US economic policy is still, let’s say, lacking in strategic clarity. It continues to oscillate; where it will end up is hard to say. But events have yielded some new information: President Donald Trump is alert to “yippy” financial markets.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.
I don’t believe the current level of tariffs will be maintained. I think most of them will be walked back, and the country will adapt to, say, a 10% tariff here and there. The Chinese (and a few other countries) tariffs are different in that they will have a more significant impact.
U.S. policy uncertainty and the ebbs and flows of AI advancement are likely to stoke continued volatility in the world’s stock markets.
In the Middle Ages, a common form of punishment was some form of mutilation, which included cutting off the nose of a prisoner or purposefully marring one’s own appearance before the arrival of conquering armies
There's a tectonic shift unfolding in global finance—subtle in appearance, but profound in implication. The traditional signposts of market anxiety—stocks, bonds, even crypto—are being bypassed in favor of something far older: gold.
The US is running a substantial net trade deficit with the European Union (EU). Europe has a surplus—but with more exports at risk, it also has the weaker position in a potential trade conflict.
US stocks pared earlier losses with big technology stocks driving gains and hopes for tariff deals overshadowing concerns over deteriorating consumer sentiment and mixed corporate earnings.
A three-day US stock rally took a breather amid deteriorating consumer sentiment and mixed corporate earnings that raised concerns about the impact of global trade war.
Treasuries jumped after comments by a Federal Reserve official bolstered odds that the central bank will cut interest rates as early as June.
Asia-Pacific will likely be the hardest hit region from a steep increase in U.S. tariffs.
A raft of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US could bruise China’s export revenues in the short term. But its domestically focused economic engine and shrinking dependency on US trade should minimize fallout in the long run.
Risk-assets struggled amidst extremely volatile price action as investors weighed the probabilities of tariffs hitting profits and valuations.
As major tech firms like Apple and Microsoft report, they face questions about the impact of tariffs. Q1 results may be discounted, with strength seen as pre-tariff demand.
Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is a key driver of our forecast this quarter, which includes an increased probability of a recession.
Emerging Markets
US Inflation Comes In Softer Than Forecast for a Third Month
US inflation rose by less than forecast in April amid tame prices for clothing and new cars, suggesting little urgency so far by companies to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.
US Firm Global AI Secures Saudi Investment Worth Billions
Global AI, a US tech firm, plans to collaborate with a Saudi Arabian artificial intelligence venture, Humain, in an agreement expected to be worth billions of dollars, according to a person familiar with the mattter.
Busy Week for Muni Debt Sales Tests Investors Wading Into Market
A wave of municipal-bond sales scheduled for this week will test a recent rebound in buyer demand after investors sold their holdings during April’s market rout.
Giant Step in U.S.:China Tariff Talks Sends Stocks Soaring
China and the U.S. conducted their first formal trade talks of 2025 over the weekend. And on Monday, May 12, they announced the outcome of their negotiations.
Hate It or Love It: Sentiment's Message
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
World Markets Watchlist: May 12, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
Current Thoughts on Tesla
Today Tesla is not trading based on car sales but on future dreams of self-driving robo-taxis, robots, semis, and whatever else Elon dreams up. The car company may be worth $100 billion to $180 billion; the rest is what investors are willing to pay for Elon’s dreams.
Dollar Surges, Treasuries Fall as US-China Trade Tensions Ease
The dollar soared and Treasuries fell as the trade war between China and the US eased, stoking appetite for risk assets.
US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talks
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products in a dramatic ratcheting down of trade tensions that buys the world’s two largest economies three months to work toward a broader agreement.
‘Buy America’ Sweeps Across Global Markets After Trade Talks
With Wall Street kicking off another rally, American stocks are now trading like Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” shock never happened.
Tension in the Sandpile
I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks.
Buffett Steps Back, His Insights Remain
Warren Buffett opened his 60th—and final as CEO—Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with the same understated clarity that has defined his career: "This is my 60th annual meeting... I think it'll be the best yet."
Barometer: Equities Set for Further Falls as Tariffs Bite
As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
Global Gold Bar and Coin Demand Rose in Q1 But Not in the U.S.
China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.
Traders’ Guide to US Stocks Most Affected in China Trade Talks
US equity investors will be watching closely as trade talks kick off between the Trump administration and China, with trillions of dollars hanging in the balance for American companies.
US Stocks Rise at Open as Investors Look Ahead to China Talks
US stocks opened higher Friday as traders weighed comments from President Donald Trump suggesting that an 80% tariff on China seemed right, just as negotiations between the two countries are set to begin on Saturday.
Wall Street Brings the Bitcoin-Versus-Gold Clash to ETF Masses
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
Central Banks Continued Stockpiling Gold in Q1
Central banks continued to stockpile gold in the first quarter.
Mixed Signals on the Path Ahead for U.S. Economy
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
US Unveils Plans to Fast-Track Deals as Trump Eyes Mideast Funds
The US said it’s developing a fast-track process for screening foreign investments in the US, an effort Trump administration officials expect could smooth the way for billions from wealth funds in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Fed Watch: Still Waiting
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
US Stocks Advance as Trump Touts Trade Agreement With UK
US stocks climbed at the open Thursday as investors welcomed news of a trade agreement between the US and the UK — a widely anticipated development that some traders say could serve as a blueprint for broader global negotiations
Tariffs Will Be Bad, But They Won’t Cause a Recession
Markets are desperate for good news about tariffs — or no news at all. It only took a pause on the reciprocal tariffs and vague promises of future trade deals for the bond market to stabilize and stocks to recover.
Tactical Rules Move to Neutral
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
Tariff Risks Reshape Manager Positioning
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
When Markets Shake, Advisors Steady the Ship
Market headlines may change daily, but the role of a financial advisor remains remarkably consistent: to be the calm in the storm, the strategist with a plan and—most importantly—the voice of reason when clients need it most.
Is US Exceptionalism Over for Equity Investors?
Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.
Bonzai Bonds: Could 14% Treasury Bonds Return?
When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.
Gridlock
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
US Stocks Rise on China Trade Talk Hopes Ahead of Fed Decision
US stocks jumped at the open Wednesday as investors were encouraged by news that the US and China are set to start trade talks this weekend, even as traders awaited the Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day.
Gold Has Many Buyers
Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
International Investing: A New Paradigm?
So what has caused such a surge in international returns versus the U.S. so far this year? Is it just short-term noise, reversion to the mean, or something more systematic? If the last few months were purely short-term noise, we will soon know, as U.S. stocks will resume dominance.
First Quarter Gold Demand at Highest Level Since 2016
Record gold prices drove first-quarter demand in 2025 to the highest level since 2016.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: April 2025
April's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Tariffs: Q1 Impacts and Q2 Negotiations
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Ongoing Policy Uncertainty Keeps Markets Uneasy
Markets clawed back early losses in April, but one thing has become clear – policy uncertainty and risk isn’t fading, it’s spreading.
U.S. Ports Face Massive Slowdowns as Trump Tariffs Bite Hard
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
Looking Beyond President Trump’s First 100 Days in Office
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
Trade Chaos is Part of the Plan for Trump, Nightmare for Powell
Jim Tuchler, a Chicago-area retailer, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have a lot in common these days.
Firms Front-Load Increase in Tariffs During Q1 2025
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
QuantStreet May 2025 Letter: Negotiations
While the S&P 500 index was almost unchanged in April, the dollar remained extremely weak, ending the month down over 4%.
Top Lessons from Professor Siegel This April
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Soft Data Gets Softer
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
U.S. Treasuries Falling Out of Favor?
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
ETFs on Pace (Again) to Break a Record
At the end of April, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered approximately $360 billion of new money.
Amazon Braces for Tougher Business Climate as US Tariffs Hit
Amazon.com Inc. said it’s bracing for a tougher business climate in the coming months, echoing concerns from a range of companies that tariffs and related economic turmoil could crimp consumer spending.
US Stock Futures Extend Gains After Strong Jobs Report
US stock futures rose Friday, putting the S&P 500 Index on track to post the longest winning streak in more than 20 years after a government report showed buoyant hiring in April, providing evidence of resilience in an economy beset by trade pressures.
Apple Hit With Two Downgrades as Tariff and Growth Worries Grow
Apple Inc. received at least two downgrades on Friday, following quarterly results that reinforced concerns over tariffs and its growth potential.
April Showered with Tariff Talk, Market Volatility
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
AI’s Great Flattening: What Happens when Everyone Is State-of-the-Art?
In the early years of the artificial intelligence (AI) race, performance benchmarks told a clear story: a handful of frontier models, developed by a few dominant labs, consistently outperformed the rest. In 2024, that changed.
US Stock Rally Hits 8th Day, Close to Erasing Post-Tariff Rout
A spate of solid corporate earnings pushed US stocks higher in overnight trading, putting major indexes on track for an eighth straight advance and close to wiping out all of the losses suffered after Donald Trump’s major tariff announcement.
Washington: What to Watch Now
A massive budget bill of tax and spending cuts, as well as a debt ceiling debate loom as Congress returns from its Easter recess.
The Supply Chain Has Seen This Before
First, let’s check the market action. Fortunately for stocks, the public has come around to a thesis that the sky is not falling, though there are a ton of market viewers who remain decidedly skeptical that the worst is behind us.
The Ripple Effects of the US/China Trade Embargo
The current level of tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US goods going into China amounts to a trade embargo between the two countries.
Correction Continues – The Value of Risk Management
Despite the recent rally, the correction continues. While wanting to “buy the dip” is tempting, there has been enough technical damage to warrant remaining cautious in the near term.
Rare Earth Restrictions
After the U.S. imposed substantial tariffs on China, Beijing responded with tariffs of its own and with restrictions on exports of seven rare earth minerals. The latter action will be a particular hindrance to American manufacturers.
Meta Earnings Have High Bar to Clear After Shares Outperform
When Meta Platforms Inc. reports earnings on Wednesday afternoon, the social media giant will face a high hurdle to satisfy anxious investors.
Old Wisdom of ‘Sell in May’ Back in Focus as Stock Market Churns
One of the best-known market trends, the “sell in May” effect is backed by decades of historical performance: Investing in a fund that debuted in 1993 and tracks the S&P 500 during the May-October period yielded a cumulative return of 171%, compared to a 731% gain for November-April, an analysis from Bespoke Investment Group found.
Dominoes: Recessions' History Guide
Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
A Look at What is Shaping our Market Views
Think of the drafting process like investing—scouts meticulously rank players based on their strength, speed, flexibility, and mental acuity, much like we analyze the economy and financial markets to shape our outlook. The true value of these players might take years to unfold...
Markets Resilient Despite Tariff Turmoil
The markets rebounded strongly last week, holding ground despite the lingering cloud of uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations. Importantly, while tariffs and dollar weakness are stirring short-term concerns, long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, setting a strong case for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates.
What Is the Optimal Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy?
Ultimately, advisors should choose a rebalancing strategy that best serves their client’s needs without putting undue strain on their own operations.
US Stocks Steady as Traders Assess Earnings, Tariff Headlines
US stocks traded steady on Tuesday as traders digested a slew of corporate earnings results and parsed comments from the White House about trade negotiations.
Porsche and Volvo Become Victims of Deglobalization
Europe’s automakers were huge beneficiaries of globalization, but now the hangover has arrived — and Porsche AG and Volvo Car AB look particularly sickly.
Critical Minerals Are a US Headache, Not an Emergency
The panic over the years has inevitably influenced policy even if heeding cooler heads would offer reassurance. Which brings us to the current US administration.
The Trials and Tribulations of Trade
American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.
Alphabet Sets a Positive Tone Ahead of Mega Tech Earnings Results this Week
Peak earnings season kicks off this week, with 7,600 companies, or 70% of our equity universe expected to report over the next three weeks.
Trump’s Golden Dome Could Spark the Biggest Defense Boom in Decades
President Donald Trump’s recent executive order revives many of the SDI’s ambitions, albeit with a modern twist. His January 27 directive launched what he first called an “Iron Dome for America,” later rebranded as the “Golden Dome.”
Bracing for Impact
Unexpected wider and larger-scope tariff announcements have sent tremors through bond and equity markets, resulting in a brisk sell-off that signals investors’ caution.
Will the Stock Market Soar, Stall, or Plummet?
We have good and bad news for investors who want to know whether the stock market will soar, stall, or plummet. First, the good news. This article presents a market path for what lies ahead. Unfortunately, the “right” path lies among three likely scenarios.
Emerging-Market Stocks Extend Rally Amid Earnings Optimism
Emerging-market stocks rose for a second day, with the benchmark gauge heading for a three-week high amid optimism over corporate earnings.
Treasury Market’s ‘New World Order’ Brings Fear of Long Bond
The “Sell America” trade that gripped markets this month has left a potentially lasting dent in investors’ willingness to hold the US government’s longest-maturity debt, a mainstay of its deficit-financing toolkit.
Big Tech’s Earnings Problem Is Estimates May Be Way Too High
The last time Big Tech delivered earnings, Donald Trump had just started his second term, stocks were soaring on expectations of a pro-growth agenda and investors’ main worry was how long it would take companies to convert their artificial intelligence spending into profits.
How Trump Could Champion Fair Trade — and Save the WTO
US economic policy is still, let’s say, lacking in strategic clarity. It continues to oscillate; where it will end up is hard to say. But events have yielded some new information: President Donald Trump is alert to “yippy” financial markets.
Home Ownership Rate Falls to Five-Year Low
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
Why is the U.S. Dollar Declining?
Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.
Tariff-Induced Paralysis
I don’t believe the current level of tariffs will be maintained. I think most of them will be walked back, and the country will adapt to, say, a 10% tariff here and there. The Chinese (and a few other countries) tariffs are different in that they will have a more significant impact.
Equity Market Outlook
U.S. policy uncertainty and the ebbs and flows of AI advancement are likely to stoke continued volatility in the world’s stock markets.
Cutting Off Your Nose to Spite Your Face
In the Middle Ages, a common form of punishment was some form of mutilation, which included cutting off the nose of a prisoner or purposefully marring one’s own appearance before the arrival of conquering armies
The New Gold Story: Who’s Buying, and Why
There's a tectonic shift unfolding in global finance—subtle in appearance, but profound in implication. The traditional signposts of market anxiety—stocks, bonds, even crypto—are being bypassed in favor of something far older: gold.
European Tariff Talks: Does the US Hold All the Cards?
The US is running a substantial net trade deficit with the European Union (EU). Europe has a surplus—but with more exports at risk, it also has the weaker position in a potential trade conflict.
Tech Giants Push US Stocks Higher with Tesla Leading Mag 7 Gains
US stocks pared earlier losses with big technology stocks driving gains and hopes for tariff deals overshadowing concerns over deteriorating consumer sentiment and mixed corporate earnings.
US Stocks Trade Sideways Amid Weak Economic Data, Mixed Earnings
A three-day US stock rally took a breather amid deteriorating consumer sentiment and mixed corporate earnings that raised concerns about the impact of global trade war.
US Bonds Rally as Fed’s Hammack Revives Odds of a June Rate Cut
Treasuries jumped after comments by a Federal Reserve official bolstered odds that the central bank will cut interest rates as early as June.
It’s Complicated
Asia-Pacific will likely be the hardest hit region from a steep increase in U.S. tariffs.
Chinese Equities: Investing in Stocks That Transcend Tariff Turmoil
A raft of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US could bruise China’s export revenues in the short term. But its domestically focused economic engine and shrinking dependency on US trade should minimize fallout in the long run.
Investing Alongside Change
Risk-assets struggled amidst extremely volatile price action as investors weighed the probabilities of tariffs hitting profits and valuations.
Q1 Tech Earnings Preview: Tariffs Chip Confidence
As major tech firms like Apple and Microsoft report, they face questions about the impact of tariffs. Q1 results may be discounted, with strength seen as pre-tariff demand.
Asset Allocation Quarterly: 2nd Quarter 2025
Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is a key driver of our forecast this quarter, which includes an increased probability of a recession.