The US housing slump stretched into a fifth month, sending a measure of prices down 2.5% from a peak in June.
A plunge in pricing power was one of the most notable developments we found in our latest quarterly survey of our credit analysts, who follow more than two dozen industries.
With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now.
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In 2023, trust is only half of the equation, The other half is authority.
US dollar cycles are long.
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
When should your firm begin to leverage a new offering, if at all? Let’s talk about ESG investing and share three strategies to help your firm discuss and market a new product or service in an authentic, practical, and distinctive way.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
A chart breakdown in the S&P 500. Signs of complacency in a closely watched options gauge.
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
Wall Street bond dealers are moving rapidly to the sidelines of US Treasury auctions — the very activity that defines their status at the heart of the world’s biggest bond market.
Many older workers who left the workforce during the pandemic may not return to the labor market.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
One of the most lucrative money-making machines in the world of finance is all clogged up, threatening a year of pain for Wall Street banks and private-equity barons as a decade-long deal boom goes bust.
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
Workers and managers are in a tug-of-war over return to office policies.
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
A disaster for bulls, the yearlong tumble in American stocks has in some respects been almost as rough for the other side of the trade.
My firm’s leader had a major unexpected undiagnosed medical issue. He walked out of the office one day and I haven’t seen him for four weeks.
Investment Director Cheryl Stober shares her team’s expectations for defaults, risks and opportunities in bank loans.
Here are two lessons to double the value of your practice…
One of the most common questions you hear when professional investors are being interviewed is “what do you think is interesting in the current market environment?”
The Loomis Sayles High Yield Sector Team shares their expectations for spreads, defaults and trends in the high yield market.
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
For many investors who started their investing journey following the financial crisis, forward returns will be disappointing compared to the last decade.
Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
Optimists were still to be found in the world of US exchange-traded funds, where more than 400 new ETFs were launched despite a harsh bear market. Funds took in more than half a trillion dollars as more investors learned to embrace their easier-to-trade and tax-friendly structure.
This morning's employment report for December showed a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 200K jobs added. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%.
Just recently, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, suggested the central bank might need to employ the “7% solution” to ensure the complete destruction of inflation.
There's only one thing you really need to know about investing in 2023, and it's both stunningly obvious and invariably forgotten: There's no free lunch.
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
With inflation on the rise and the era of ultra-low interest rates over, financial markets will face a huge stress test in 2023.
Even after a year in which the vast majority of the wealthiest Americans lost a chunk of their fortunes — and in some cases, lost big — in at least one way, they’re still coming out ahead.
In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we illustrate the relative attractiveness of select developed international sectors.
Let's examine the three paths the Fed might take in 2023 and what they mean for stock prices.
Bob Doll, CIO at Crossmark Global Investments, provides his annual 10 predictions for financial markets.
The collapse of FTX and the charges against Sam Bankman-Fried have brought many renewed calls for crypto regulation, from both commentators and legislators.
With 2022 finally over, and not soon enough, such is an excellent time to review our “investor resolutions.”
Nikko Asset Management’s Global Investment Committee recently got together to discus their views heading into 2023.
Billionaire philanthropist Chuck Feeney is credited with saying, “I want the last check I write to bounce.” While that is ideal, it’s unrealistic. Or is it?
I’m looking over my previous “trends” article, published at this time a year ago, and some of my ”fearless predictions” were outlandish then but now seem ordinary. That means I did something right.
The boom in stock market options shows no sign of let up, as the number of traded US contracts surpassed the 10-billion mark in 2022 for the first time ever, playing a role in the biggest equity rout in over a decade.
It’s hard to believe that the post-Covid world at one point was supposed to usher in a new consumer-led boom worthy of the “Roaring Twenties.”
Rather quietly, a new age of atomic energy may be approaching. Splitting atoms may not be as exciting as fusing them, or as modish as wind and solar projects.
Lawmakers and regulators are grappling with a question: What, if anything, should they do to civilize a market so rife with abuse?
Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.
Being good at what you do is no longer enough to differentiate yourself from other advisors.
Private credit can be an attractive asset that has provided high yield and protection against the risks of rising inflation. In addition, the asset class has a strong credit history – specifically senior, secured, sponsored debt.
I’m not sure where I’m going these days.
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +0.1% (+0.3 billion vehicle miles) for October 2022 as compared with October 2021. Travel for the month is estimated to be 286.0 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was mostly unchanged month-over-month and up 3.0% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) inched down 0.1% month-over-month and was up 2% year-over-year.
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
Grayscale Investments’ proposal to buy out certain holders of its flagship Bitcoin trust is the money manager’s latest bid to stanch losses in a fund that’s been a linchpin in the dramatic rise and fall of the cryptocurrency universe.
Stubbornly high inflation, soaring borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty hindered dealmaking in 2022, sending global mergers and acquisitions activity down by almost a third compared with last year’s record haul.
Capital represents the resources and labor used to produce goods and services.
Private equity titans including KKR & Co. and Thoma Bravo pursued unorthodox paths to dealmaking this year in response to a challenging environment likely to persist in 2023.
The credit cycle and the economic cycle are excellent leading indicators of volatility.
Considering that a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another, we've highlighted our top five that may define the global markets in 2023.
The Fed has massively inverted the yield curve. We explain why investors might be frontrunning themselves and why the long-term rate won’t budge.
Monetary policy is more like the World Cup than it is like mathematics or great literature.
The economic tea leaves suggest that 2023 could be another challenging year for both stocks and bonds. However, the outlook is more balanced given that equity valuations are much lower and bond yields much higher.
As investors hope for a Santa Claus rally in the days ahead, the Grinch is looking to steal their holiday cheer.
This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. That means we will touch on a variety of topics, kind of a snapshot into where my mind is today. Get ready to travel the world but let’s start at home with the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
Just two months ago, Elon Musk speculated that Tesla Inc. would eventually be worth twice as much as Saudi Arabian Oil Co. — AKA Saudi Aramco, AKA the biggest listed company in the world with a market capitalization (then) of $2.1 trillion.
The US government is blacklisting Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Group Co. and dozens of other Chinese tech companies, ratcheting up a trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks writes that the investment world may be experiencing the third major sea change of the last 50 years. Events in recent years – especially the spike in inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response – appear to have caused a reversal of the market conditions that prevailed after the Global Financial Crisis and for much of the last four decades. Howard discusses what this potentially new era could mean for lenders, especially bargain hunters.
Global Investment Report's 3Q Update of the 2022 hedge fund survey.
Professional speculators with billions in bearish trades on the line endured a rough ride after Tuesday’s report on US consumer prices brought the latest sign that the Federal Reserve is making progress in its battle against inflation.
Emerging Markets (EM) assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
As the super-growth cycle is ending in dramatic fashion, we are already seeing some of the most attractive valuation opportunities in years.
Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t.
The pay negotiation season is looking increasingly fraught this year as workers fret about 8% inflation — and their job security.
An alpha-oriented approach.
The Federal Reserve hasn’t had much success so far in wrestling down sky-high inflation, but its monetary tightening campaign is having a major impact in deflating asset bubbles that swelled during the pandemic.
Ever since Elon Musk launched his takeover of Twitter Inc., fans of Tesla Inc. have worried about the genius getting distracted. And during the new Twitter’s first six weeks — has it only been that long? — Musk has certainly come across a bit distracted. Addled, even.
If a crushing bear market, inflation-fueled volatility and slump in inflows was meant to cool the booming US exchange-traded fund industry, issuers never got the message.
Leveraged and Inverse Funds
US Housing Market Cools With Prices Down 2.5% From June Peak
The US housing slump stretched into a fifth month, sending a measure of prices down 2.5% from a peak in June.
Corporate Health Weakens as Pricing Power Falls Sharply
A plunge in pricing power was one of the most notable developments we found in our latest quarterly survey of our credit analysts, who follow more than two dozen industries.
The Labor Market Is Still Historically Tight
With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
An Inside Look at the GDP Q4 Advance Estimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Secret to Making the Sale in 2023
In 2023, trust is only half of the equation, The other half is authority.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
The “Pain Trade” Is Higher For Now
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
Global Economic Outlook: Run-of-the-Mill
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
IG Outlook: Positive Technicals, Deteriorating Fundamentals
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Why I’m Waiting for the Fed to Pivot
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Three Strategies to Expand Your ESG Offerings
When should your firm begin to leverage a new offering, if at all? Let’s talk about ESG investing and share three strategies to help your firm discuss and market a new product or service in an authentic, practical, and distinctive way.
Margin Debt Down 5.8% in December
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Strategic Income Outlook: Was This a Crazy Year or What?
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
Bruised Stock Bears Bust Out the Charts in Arguing the Top Is In
A chart breakdown in the S&P 500. Signs of complacency in a closely watched options gauge.
EM Debt Outlook: China Takes Center Stage
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
Investors Risk Making a Classic Portfolio Mistake
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Time to Buy the Dip In Energy?
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
Wall Street Dealers Become Bit Players in US Bond Sales
Wall Street bond dealers are moving rapidly to the sidelines of US Treasury auctions — the very activity that defines their status at the heart of the world’s biggest bond market.
Content in Retirement
Many older workers who left the workforce during the pandemic may not return to the labor market.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
The Punchbowl Is Gone
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Wall Street's Lucrative Leveraged-Debt Machine Is Breaking Down
One of the most lucrative money-making machines in the world of finance is all clogged up, threatening a year of pain for Wall Street banks and private-equity barons as a decade-long deal boom goes bust.
Global Credit Outlook: Cautious on Turbulence & Technicals
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
2023 Municipal Bond Playbook: A Page from the 1990s
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
Breaking the RTO Plateau
Workers and managers are in a tug-of-war over return to office policies.
The Year in Review: Wealthspire Advisors 2022 Q4 Review
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
Equities Are Searching for Clarity
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Biggest Ever Bear-Market Bounces Create Unending Pain for Shorts
A disaster for bulls, the yearlong tumble in American stocks has in some respects been almost as rough for the other side of the trade.
How to Manage a Leaderless Practice
My firm’s leader had a major unexpected undiagnosed medical issue. He walked out of the office one day and I haven’t seen him for four weeks.
Bank Loans Outlook: Don’t Miss Out on the Opportunity
Investment Director Cheryl Stober shares her team’s expectations for defaults, risks and opportunities in bank loans.
Ask Brad: How to Double the Value of Your Practice
Here are two lessons to double the value of your practice…
Don’t Take Our Word for It
One of the most common questions you hear when professional investors are being interviewed is “what do you think is interesting in the current market environment?”
High Credit Yield Outlook: Considering Catalysts for Wider Spreads
The Loomis Sayles High Yield Sector Team shares their expectations for spreads, defaults and trends in the high yield market.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Stay High Quality in 2023
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
Forward Returns Will Disappoint Compared To The Past Decade
For many investors who started their investing journey following the financial crisis, forward returns will be disappointing compared to the last decade.
Year of the Pause
Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.
Federal Reserve Continues Quest to Slow U.S. Economy
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
ETF Market Expanded in 2022 Through Bear Market But Took Hits
Optimists were still to be found in the world of US exchange-traded funds, where more than 400 new ETFs were launched despite a harsh bear market. Funds took in more than half a trillion dollars as more investors learned to embrace their easier-to-trade and tax-friendly structure.
December Employment: 223K New Jobs, Beats Forecast
This morning's employment report for December showed a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 200K jobs added. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%.
The Fed’s “7% Solution” Won’t Work This Time
Just recently, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, suggested the central bank might need to employ the “7% solution” to ensure the complete destruction of inflation.
The One True Secret to Successful Investing
There's only one thing you really need to know about investing in 2023, and it's both stunningly obvious and invariably forgotten: There's no free lunch.
Markets Look to Rebound From a Volatile 2022
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
Alternative Investments: The Case for Real Estate
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
The Looming Financial Contagion
With inflation on the rise and the era of ultra-low interest rates over, financial markets will face a huge stress test in 2023.
Inflation Reset Lets Wealthy Americans Give Heirs Even More Tax-Free
Even after a year in which the vast majority of the wealthiest Americans lost a chunk of their fortunes — and in some cases, lost big — in at least one way, they’re still coming out ahead.
Quarterly Strategy Report: Global Equity Opportunities
In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we illustrate the relative attractiveness of select developed international sectors.
Three Paths for 2023
Let's examine the three paths the Fed might take in 2023 and what they mean for stock prices.
10 Predictions for 2023
Bob Doll, CIO at Crossmark Global Investments, provides his annual 10 predictions for financial markets.
Beware the Dangers of Crypto Regulation
The collapse of FTX and the charges against Sam Bankman-Fried have brought many renewed calls for crypto regulation, from both commentators and legislators.
Investor Resolutions & January Stats For 2023
With 2022 finally over, and not soon enough, such is an excellent time to review our “investor resolutions.”
Nikko Asset Management Global Investment Committee’s Outlook
Nikko Asset Management’s Global Investment Committee recently got together to discus their views heading into 2023.
Make that Last Check Bounce
Billionaire philanthropist Chuck Feeney is credited with saying, “I want the last check I write to bounce.” While that is ideal, it’s unrealistic. Or is it?
The Trends That Will Shape the Advisory Profession in 2023
I’m looking over my previous “trends” article, published at this time a year ago, and some of my ”fearless predictions” were outlandish then but now seem ordinary. That means I did something right.
US Stock Options Smash Record, Surpassing 10 Billion Contracts
The boom in stock market options shows no sign of let up, as the number of traded US contracts surpassed the 10-billion mark in 2022 for the first time ever, playing a role in the biggest equity rout in over a decade.
The Roaring Twenties Are Now Over. Time to Get Real.
It’s hard to believe that the post-Covid world at one point was supposed to usher in a new consumer-led boom worthy of the “Roaring Twenties.”
Net Zero Isn't Possible Without Nuclear
Rather quietly, a new age of atomic energy may be approaching. Splitting atoms may not be as exciting as fusing them, or as modish as wind and solar projects.
Thanks to FTX, Regulating Crypto Should Be Easy
Lawmakers and regulators are grappling with a question: What, if anything, should they do to civilize a market so rife with abuse?
Top 10 AP Charts of 2022
Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.
Competence and Credibility Have Been Commoditized
Being good at what you do is no longer enough to differentiate yourself from other advisors.
Private Debt Funds Offer Attractive Yield
Private credit can be an attractive asset that has provided high yield and protection against the risks of rising inflation. In addition, the asset class has a strong credit history – specifically senior, secured, sponsored debt.
On the Road to Nowhere
I’m not sure where I’m going these days.
America's Driving Habits as of October 2022
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +0.1% (+0.3 billion vehicle miles) for October 2022 as compared with October 2021. Travel for the month is estimated to be 286.0 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was mostly unchanged month-over-month and up 3.0% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) inched down 0.1% month-over-month and was up 2% year-over-year.
The Federal Reserve is Killing Capitalism
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
Bitcoin's Biggest Trade Goes From Hero Creator to Widow Maker
Grayscale Investments’ proposal to buy out certain holders of its flagship Bitcoin trust is the money manager’s latest bid to stanch losses in a fund that’s been a linchpin in the dramatic rise and fall of the cryptocurrency universe.
Dealmaking Slips by Almost a Third in 2022 Marked by Volatility, Inflation
Stubbornly high inflation, soaring borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty hindered dealmaking in 2022, sending global mergers and acquisitions activity down by almost a third compared with last year’s record haul.
Capital Neglect is Killing Capitalism
Capital represents the resources and labor used to produce goods and services.
Private Equity's Tough Year Shows No Signs of Letting Up
Private equity titans including KKR & Co. and Thoma Bravo pursued unorthodox paths to dealmaking this year in response to a challenging environment likely to persist in 2023.
Why We Should Expect Higher Volatility For Longer
The credit cycle and the economic cycle are excellent leading indicators of volatility.
Top Global Risks of 2023
Considering that a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another, we've highlighted our top five that may define the global markets in 2023.
The Current Yield Curve Inversion, Explained
The Fed has massively inverted the yield curve. We explain why investors might be frontrunning themselves and why the long-term rate won’t budge.
For the Fed, a Red Card From the Seventies
Monetary policy is more like the World Cup than it is like mathematics or great literature.
Fourth Quarter 2022 Economic Review and Outlook
The economic tea leaves suggest that 2023 could be another challenging year for both stocks and bonds. However, the outlook is more balanced given that equity valuations are much lower and bond yields much higher.
Investors Brace for the Fed’s Hard Landing
As investors hope for a Santa Claus rally in the days ahead, the Grinch is looking to steal their holiday cheer.
Higher for Longer
This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. That means we will touch on a variety of topics, kind of a snapshot into where my mind is today. Get ready to travel the world but let’s start at home with the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
2022 Has Not Been Kind to Musk's Tesla. Exxon Is Catching Up.
Just two months ago, Elon Musk speculated that Tesla Inc. would eventually be worth twice as much as Saudi Arabian Oil Co. — AKA Saudi Aramco, AKA the biggest listed company in the world with a market capitalization (then) of $2.1 trillion.
US Blacklists More Chinese Tech Companies, Escalating Trade Fight
The US government is blacklisting Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Group Co. and dozens of other Chinese tech companies, ratcheting up a trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
Sea Change
In his latest memo, Howard Marks writes that the investment world may be experiencing the third major sea change of the last 50 years. Events in recent years – especially the spike in inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response – appear to have caused a reversal of the market conditions that prevailed after the Global Financial Crisis and for much of the last four decades. Howard discusses what this potentially new era could mean for lenders, especially bargain hunters.
Top 50 Hedge Funds Outperform the Market by 28 percentage points through the first nine months of the year
Global Investment Report's 3Q Update of the 2022 hedge fund survey.
Wrong-Way Bets on Inflation Exposed Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
Professional speculators with billions in bearish trades on the line endured a rough ride after Tuesday’s report on US consumer prices brought the latest sign that the Federal Reserve is making progress in its battle against inflation.
2023 Outlook for Emerging Markets, “A year of Two halves”
Emerging Markets (EM) assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
Opportunities In Today’s Environment
As the super-growth cycle is ending in dramatic fashion, we are already seeing some of the most attractive valuation opportunities in years.
Recession Scale
Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t.
Workers Have High Hopes for Pay Hikes Next Year. Perhaps Too High
The pay negotiation season is looking increasingly fraught this year as workers fret about 8% inflation — and their job security.
EM Corporate Debt ESG Integration
An alpha-oriented approach.
The Federal Reserve Is Deflating Financial Bubbles, Without a Crash
The Federal Reserve hasn’t had much success so far in wrestling down sky-high inflation, but its monetary tightening campaign is having a major impact in deflating asset bubbles that swelled during the pandemic.
Musk Loans Put Twitter in Tesla's Driving Seat
Ever since Elon Musk launched his takeover of Twitter Inc., fans of Tesla Inc. have worried about the genius getting distracted. And during the new Twitter’s first six weeks — has it only been that long? — Musk has certainly come across a bit distracted. Addled, even.
Hundreds of New ETFs Debuted This Year Even as Markets Suffered
If a crushing bear market, inflation-fueled volatility and slump in inflows was meant to cool the booming US exchange-traded fund industry, issuers never got the message.