Leveraged and Inverse Funds

One concern raised by the recent backup in rates is whether CRE is about to relive the stress of 2023, when depressed post-pandemic office demand coincided with rising rates and a regional bank crisis, including Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. The selloff in public REITs suggests investors are repricing property values for a higher-rate world.

While market valuations remain on the loftier side, investors face a familiar dilemma. Chasing pure growth leaves portfolios vulnerable to sharp drawdowns, while hiding in traditional “deep value” risks inheriting mature businesses in structural decline — classic value traps.

Last week, the AI trade began to crack further with Alphabet’s release, missing on both the top and bottom lines. Mirroring Meta’s print from the prior week, massive AI capex turned free cash flow negative, alarming investors.

With the one constant being that gold fell again, this time by 6.6%, October’s price action is a mirror image of what happened in markets in September. In September, tech and momentum led the charge higher, with anything value- or rate-related leading the selloff. October was the exact opposite.

Rising U.S. Treasury yields have added fresh strain to the U.S. housing market. The average 30-year mortgage rate, which generally tracks the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plus a mortgage spread, rose to 7.5% in October 2026, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data, worsening an affordability crunch that remains a top concern among U.S. households.

Infrastructure has long been valued for its defensive characteristics, income potential and ability to protect against inflation. Essential assets such as electricity networks, pipelines, railways, airports and toll roads typically benefit from high barriers to entry and predictable revenues.

The AI investment boom has become one of the largest sources of demand in the U.S. economy. Announced annual capital spending across large U.S. technology companies points to more than $1 trillion in desired investment, up dramatically from only a few years ago.

Franklin Templeton plans to launch two ETFs Thursday that use stock dividends to buy bitcoin instead of more shares.

The credit market had become more discerning. Companies with greater leverage, more uncertain cash flows, or business models requiring enormous amounts of capital appeared to be more scrutinized.

Record ETF launches are compressing product shelf lives and raising closure risks. Learn the real costs for advisors and clients.

Ken Griffin told a room full of investors recently that we are “almost certainly” in an AI bubble. He may well be correct in that assessment, and there are plenty of media narratives that support that view.

We have been arguing that the reset higher in yields has restored the dual role of bonds in multi-asset portfolios: providing attractive income while once again offering the potential for meaningful risk mitigation. This month’s tech market turbulence has provided a clear example: As equities came under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields fell amid a flight to safety, allowing duration to behave like a diversifier again.

Emerging markets continued to deliver strong year-to-date returns in 2026, although the third quarter served as a reminder that the path higher is rarely linear. After a powerful first-half rally led by artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors and other growth-oriented sectors, markets experienced a broad correction in July before stabilizing through the remainder of the quarter.

The Magnificent Seven have dominated the technology trade, but investor attention is now shifting toward the MANGOS — a group of companies that place greater emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI) rather than traditional megacap technology.

Higher bond yields may offer retirees more income potential, but a diversified approach that balances income, risk, and spending needs remains important.

After years when yield was scarce and investors were pushed further out on the risk spectrum, income is investable again. High-quality bonds can once more provide meaningful cash flow, portfolio stability and a credible path to total return without requiring an aggressive call on interest rates or credit.

The US Treasury market is entering a new era. Financing government debt is becoming less about capital availability and more about the yield required to attract it.

Narratives are almost always wrong: clever stories that explain the past and say nothing about the future. One may be right. AI may become the dominant technology of the century and render much of the present economy obsolete.

This year, the software sector has been one of the worst-performing pockets of the leveraged loan market amid fears that AI would severely disrupt existing business models. The sector’s underperformance has also weighed on the leveraged loan asset class as a whole, given its more than 10% weight in the overall Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index.

The link between AI capex and earnings carried roughly half of this year’s profit growth, and that support fades once spending stops accelerating, even at a record level. The earnings bill doesn’t arrive when the spending stops. It arrives when the spending stops growing.

Fall is officially underway, heralding a season of change — and what a difference three months makes. The past quarter brought a dramatic Federal Reserve policy pivot and notable shifts in market sentiment and ETF trends. But within equities, the most striking reversal occurred inside the AI trade itself.

In this commentary, we look at three themes shaping our thinking: a shift in who is leading the market, the return of income as a meaningful source of return, and an economy that, in our view, is growing steadily rather than heading toward either extreme.

Corporate bond yields are high, but spreads are low. Low spreads are supported by strong corporate fundamentals, and high yields might help offset potential price declines.

As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but increasingly differentiated. Economic growth and corporate earnings have remained resilient, while continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other productivity-enhancing technologies has supported capital spending and market sentiment.

Today, we are going to look at some of the cracks which are becoming visible in the AI space. It will change the nature of index investing, the economy and portfolio management for the next decade. And generally, not in a good way as far as current AI investors are concerned.

We agree that the economy has appeared remarkably resilient at the aggregate level, and that modest further rate increases may not put overall growth at risk. But the more important question for portfolios is not the level of inflation; it is its sensitivity to rates.

Q3 was a period of transition in the bond market thanks to Federal Reserve changes, a surge of AI-driven debt issuance, and rising interest rates.

While redemption pressure in nonlisted BDCs (funds that invest in small and midsize private U.S. businesses) has eased from its peak, it remains materially above the industry standard 5% quarterly redemption threshold. As a result, capital continues to leave the asset class, forcing managers to look to preserve liquidity, moderate deployment, and, at the margin, tighten financing conditions.

Gold and silver finally put a winning week on the board. But the more revealing development is what happened while prices were falling: investors poured billions into gold-backed funds, and China stepped up its purchases of physical gold.

Global equity markets finished the third quarter only modestly higher, but the path beneath the surface was anything but calm. The AI and momentum trade that powered markets in the first half unwound sharply in July, leadership broadened through August as capital returned to areas that had been left behind, and the market narrowed again in September.

Earlier last week, a supertanker loading crude in the Gulf of Oman was fixed at $1.01 million a day for a voyage to Asia, with another deal reportedly agreed at $1.16 million.

The market continues to hold near all-time highs despite pressure from higher bond yields. This week brought relatively little economic data, but the important takeaway is that the underlying economy still looks strong. High-frequency indicators, jobless claims and consumer spending data continue to point to solid growth, while this week’s CPI, PPI and retail sales reports will provide the next important test for both the economy and the Federal Reserve.

Headlines are popping up left and right about how high the 10-year Treasury yield has risen. While investors make decisions about what is the “right” longer-term cost of government debt, many journalists focus on single-factor ways of viewing it.

In 1954, golfer Tommy Bolt won the inaugural Rubber City Open at Firestone Country Club in Akron. Four years later, he returned to Akron as the reigning US Open champion, where in the third round he was paired with an 18-year-old amateur making his tour debut.

ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.

Sometimes, there’s safety in size. Semiconductor Goliath Nvidia (NVDA) is proving as much. Already one of the world’s largest companies by market capitalization, Nvidia is up 29.5% year-to-date. That extends a five-year run in which the stock surged 1,066%.

Is now the time for senior loans? Shifting yields and rising pressure make the floating rate yield vehicles an intriguing place to watch.

After a nine-month rally in equity markets and a recent spike in bond yields, some investors may see fit to reduce their exposure to stocks. On the surface at least, bonds appear to offer better value than equities. The gap between stocks' earnings yields, the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio, and bond yields is narrower than it has been in two decades.

As globalization recedes, governments and businesses have stronger incentives to invest in building more resilient societies and supply chains. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of artificial intelligence, creating a powerful interaction between technological innovation and economic security.

Market participants have been conditioned to expect clear Forward Guidance from Fed Chairs and Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jay Powell provided it continuously, especially after the Financial Crisis. Chairman Warsh has made it clear that Forward Guidance will be less under his leadership, but he has offered a very important qualifier that many have yet to grasp.

Long before modern scanners and monitors became common, doctors often checked a patient's health with something as simple as a finger on the wrist. A pulse could reveal a surprising amount about a person's condition. Economists have their own version of this practice. Rather than relying solely on complex statistical models, they often look for signals that offer a quick health check.

Industrials are supported by increased capital spending in electricity capacity, construction around the artificial intelligence-related (AI) infrastructure buildout, defense, and energy, although higher costs and possible delays in data center construction could temper growth.

Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.

Long viewed as an emergency brake for macroeconomic panic, gold is starting to prove itself as much more than a crisis asset.

Executives enter the earnings season with a bit of a swagger. They won't say it out loud, of course, but consider all the headwinds CEOs of companies big and small have faced in the last few years. First, it was imminent recession fears; then it was looming tariffs (followed by the shock of April 2025).

For a quarter of a century, the hyperscalers have been some of the most profitable and technologically innovative businesses ever created. The reason was clear: their marginal cost per additional customer was almost zero. Costs were fixed and scale was effectively unlimited, which meant margins widened as volume grew.

The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.

This week gave us another glimpse of our AI-powered future. AI personal agents are becoming a thing you need to understand, if not use.

Yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PCE print finally gave the bond market a breather, pulling Treasury yields down from their brief 5.3% peak. For financial advisors, this recent whiplash brings fixed income duration conversations back to center stage — specifically, balancing the hunt for long-term yield with the safety of ultra-short cash alternatives.

You can’t spot it on the field or in the stadium. You can’t correct it in training. Or cure it with a dose from the team doctor. But it’s a malady an overwhelming number of professional athletes will face.

All eyes are on the macro economy. A significant market correction in late July triggered the abrupt collapse of Situational Awareness, L.P., a $45 billion, highly leveraged, AI-focused hedge fund. The collapse forced selling of many technology hardware stocks that were winners in the first half of 2026.

The bond market has become the central story for investors. The remarkable development over the past several weeks is not rising inflation expectations but rising real interest rates. Real rates have increased roughly 40 basis points in just three weeks, one of the sharpest moves I can remember over such a short period. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations have actually edged slightly lower.