I wrote this article in 2030 after I interviewed several retirees whose income plans were designed by ChatRET.
Transitioning into the post-COVID investment environment shifts the foundations of portfolio construction that investors relied on in recent decades. On full display in 2022, inflation and recession risk punished both bonds and stocks together to historic declines.
The first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 261,000 initial claims was up 28,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading came in well above the forecast of 235,000. This is the highest level of initial jobless claims since October 2021.
Earlier this month, WealthManagement.com announced the finalists for its 2023 Industry Awards (the “Wealthies”). VettaFi is one of two firms to be recognized for outstanding achievement in research innovation. The Wealthies was the first award program of its kind to honor companies, organizations, and individuals supporting financial advisor success.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
We see the market’s focus returning to higher-for-longer rates and sticky inflation after a U.S. debt ceiling deal. We prefer an up-in-quality portfolio.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 31, 2023 close.
Too many advisors jump into surge poorly prepared to deliver massive value to their clients. Here are five common mistakes and how to avoid them.
The US debt ceiling negotiations brought considerable volatility to market prices.
The empirical evidence supports Seigel’s general assertion that stocks beat inflation in the long run. But the inflation-hedging benefits of stocks aren’t perfect.
I will analyze the pros and cons of three funds to access the reinsurance market.
While tuition is the main qualified expense you think of when you get a 529, there are other tangential education expenses that will also qualify.
Managing substantial wealth often requires specialized capabilities and expertise.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. May saw a 339,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. The forecast was for 180,000 jobs gained.
When portfolio manager David Lipner said he was quitting billionaire Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management to join a rival, the hedge fund countered with an unusual proposal: A one-year paid sabbatical and an incentive upon return if Lipner stayed.
Truist Financial Corporation is a purpose-driven financial services company committed to inspiring and building better lives and communities. Truist has a leading market share in many high-growth markets in the country.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank heightens the Federal Reserve's policy dilemma over fighting inflation while maintaining financial stability. We analyze what the crisis means for the banking system and the economy.
Provisions of the SECURE Act may require advisors to revisit estate plans for clients who aren't utilizing their RMDs or who have qualified assets intended for the next generation. Some clients may benefit from strategies for using life insurance to maximize the value of qualified assets while minimizing their tax burden.
Stay informed and proactive to help clients meet their estate planning goals. Learn how to offset the taxes on qualified assets, structure investments for optimal distribution and navigate changes to inherited IRAs and new RMD requirements under the SECURE Act 2.0."
Brex, a credit-card startup, has seen a surge in usage of its products following this year’s regional banking turmoil.
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.
We all dread the death clutch of the meeting monster.
If you were doubting whether the age of AI has arrived, NVIDIA’s stock performance this week may have given you second thoughts.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in April and is up 5.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year.
While we don't expect the U.S. government to default, the uncertainty may heighten market volatility in coming days. Here are answers to some of the questions we're hearing most often.
Bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasuries, without requiring investors to take on too much additional risk.
Stocks are having a great year, but gold is doing even better. Year-to-date global equities are up roughly 9% in dollar terms; gold has advanced more than 10%.
Over the past decade or so, there has been a broad trend in the industry toward closing and freezing defined benefit plans.
Investors should rely on the wisdom of crowds as expressed through bond yields, not credit rating agencies, to judge fixed-income credit risk.
Cities and states may have their work cut out for them as they explore solutions to preserve their commercial tax bases and maintain the vibrancy of their downtowns.
AI’s arrival will have an increasingly large impact on our lives. That includes investing and, especially, other aspects of financial planning.
Most of us spent moments of our childhood, crayon in hand, connecting numbered dots that gradually revealed a picture that we couldn’t deduce simply by looking at the separate dots. With experience, we got better at looking at those isolated dots and mentally connecting them into a coherent “gestalt.”
We prefer private to public credit long term on better return potential. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks as risks fade in the medium term.
We must understand our clients’ purposes and how they fit together in their lives. We need to take the initiative when rebalancing is in order.
A better retirement stress test would focus on the standard of living in retirement and how spending would need to change in times of market turmoil or heightened inflation.
According to Buffett, the US economy just went through the “most extraordinary economic period since World War II.” That’s a heck of a statement.
Banks and financial institutions are big issuers of preferred securities, so the recent banking industry volatility has had an impact. Our guidance on preferreds is unchanged but with some caveats.
What generally follows that expression is a succinct synopsis. We’re always trying to be concise; however, distilling complex economic and investment matters usually requires several pages.
HNW Americans need to be prepared for every contingency, including Democrats winning a trifecta of POTUS and majorities in both houses of Congress.
When markets turn volatile, it’s not time to despair. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, offers some judicious perspectives on how to turn volatility into opportunity.
Deep in the bowels of Wall Street, there’s a surprisingly successful counterfeiting operation underway: The world’s largest banks have created a booming business churning out imitation quant trades.
Advisors are looking ahead to the policy and tax changes impacting their high-net-worth clients. Those include changes stemming from the passage of Secure 2.0 Act.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April dropped to 107.5 from March's revised figure of 108.2. This is the 13th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009, and the lowest reading since September 2020. Today's reading represented a 0.6% month-over-month decline, consistent with the forecast.
Investor indifference to the threat of a prolonged debt-ceiling impasse has left a handful of tail-risk strategies almost too cheap to pass up.
Equita Financial Network is helping women build independent financial advisory firms efficiently with tangible, meaningful support.
A long-term financial plan can be dismantled late in life by adult children, usually with good intentions. What can you do to guard against this possibility?
Nearly a year ago, I – provisionally and with qualifications – declared I-Bonds to be the fabled “free lunch” due to the remarkable 9.62% rate they were paying. That rate came down – a lot – so should you still buy them?
Whether it’s high inflation or greater market volatility, Monte Carlo analysis will reveal how those uncertainties impact a client and provide peace of mind about their plans.
We think the U.S. debt limit showdown will spark renewed volatility in markets. That risk reinforces why we stay invested and cautious by going up in quality.
There are still some optimists in the market confident that a solution will be found in time to the US debt-ceiling crisis even as the Washington stalemate persists and many investors shun the most at-risk Treasury bill issues.
The Banking emergency arising with mid-sized, regional banks is a direct consequence of policy decisions. Examine the causes of bank failures in 2023 and the potential for larger contagion.
We are presented with this decision in finance a lot. There is a small probability of something bad happening and a large probability that everything will be fine. What do you do to insure yourself against something bad happening? Because there is no such thing as a free lunch.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in at 4.9%, down from 5.0% the previous month (n.s.a) and lower than the forecast of 5.0%. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).
A relationship-based business thrives on one’s ability to nurture, support, leverage and maintain the connections to the business and the people associated with it. Referrals require trust from all parties.
Financial cracks from rate hikes have led to jitters over commercial real estate. Yet granularity is key. We see opportunities in some U.S. industrial properties.
Last year, 2022, saw record annuity sales across several categories. Now, nearly halfway through 2023, many of the same macro-economic factors that drove sales last year are still present. While it’s too soon to say what 2023 annuity sales will look like, our guest today will share why annuities can be a valuable addition to a retirement strategy, regardless of market and economic conditions.
The U.S. regional banking crisis is intensifying as rising interest rates put smaller banks at risk, leading to significant losses in the sector. Amid the turmoil, gold and gold mining stocks may offer investors a potentially safer alternative to manage risk.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett made his name by being greedy when others were fearful and fearful when others were greedy, dispensing folksy wisdom along the way.
Investors have punished a handful of US regional banks amid fears the turmoil will ensnare more lenders. But depositors at some — at least for now — appear to be sitting tight.
Along with identifying your goals and time horizon, assessing risk is a key part of building a holistic financial plan. And while affluent investors generally have higher risk tolerances, determining their individual risk profiles isn’t straightforward.
The Fed and its loose monetary policy are to blame, according to Lacy Hunt, for high inflation, excessive risk taking, slow growth and other maladies afflicting our economy.
PacWest Bancorp has become the latest focal point of investor concern about the health of US regional banks, shedding nearly half its value in premarket trading, a day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said authorities were closer to containing the turmoil that’s claimed four lenders this year.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon made a bold call on Monday: his firm’s rescue of First Republic Bank ended the initial phase of the turmoil engulfing banks.
Though equities have proven resilient, more of the long-expected effects of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) rapid interest rate-raising policy arrived in April.
Lending standards are a lot like carbon monoxide since they operate in the back ground. When the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOOS) showed that banks significantly increased lending standards in the third quarter, no one on Wall Street noticed.
Investors who base their beliefs about the distribution of possible stock returns on historical data from their home country underestimate the probability of experiencing a significant crash.
There have been glimmers of hope in 2023 that the inflation fixation of 2022 was a transitory phenomenon. In particular, the market has begun to more closely monitor jobs market data releases to try to spot signs of a labor market and wage slowdown.
Cryptocurrency adoption in the U.S. increased amid fears of a full-blown banking crisis, a new poll finds. According to Morning Consult, 22% of Americans, over one in five, said they owned at least one form of crypto in April, representing a four-percentage-point increase from January.
We have the royal coronation in England to remind us that once upon a time, one person would issue all the laws – which is an unfair but very effective way to make things happen. Here are the edicts that I would issue if the financial services world made me its king.
A few months ago, the internet was filling up with predictions that we’d have a 2008-style crash in home prices. The thinking was that the increase in interest rates would cause mortgage payments to skyrocket and price out an entire generation of homebuyers.
The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Group AG and others have gotten financial authorities thinking again about bank runs and liquidity regulations — and whether some rules ought to be tweaked to make the system safer.
Principal Financial Group® recently released the results of an extensive survey it conducted asking advisors and employers their expectations for the future of retirement. Among the key trends it identified were an aging workforce with evolving financial planning needs. At the other extreme, Gen Z workers are beginning their careers with investment and planning preferences that differ markedly from older generations. Other findings included the anticipated need for personalization, financial wellness monitoring and counseling, and better services for retirement planning.
How can advisors ensure that clients will keep their assets with you?
Amid the overabundance of economic opinion, unexamined clichés, and unverified assertions, and nutrient-free word salad dispensed by talking heads on television, market observers, and even Federal Reserve officials, I often wonder how many of them have ever taken the time to carefully examine historical data.
Here’s how we can improve financial planning projections to result in better forecasts, advice and guidance to households.
April is Financial Literacy month, but all that elicits from the advice industry is a collective yawn.
Resisting recency bias is the key to earning the premiums available from all risky assets, as this example illustrates.
Corporate bond investors may be wondering if banking sector turmoil will affect financial institution bond issuers. Here's what to know now.
Many investors, including my clients, have been worried about their Schwab account safety. Are they right to be worried?
Bitcoin’s dominant showing in 2023 is leaving exchange-traded fund investors divided on what’s next for the world’s biggest cryptocurrency.
Technology enhancements have increased the speed of panic.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the significance of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. He argues that it likely doesn’t portend a wave of banking failures but may amplify preexisting wariness among investors and lenders, leading to further credit tightening and additional pain across a range of industries and sectors.
Keto diets are a proven regimen to reduce weight and foster a healthy lifestyle. The financial equivalent – the keto annuity – will drive successful outcomes for your female clients and build a stronger practice.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
2023 has already been an eventful year, featuring a banking crisis and more Fed rate hikes. In our view, this is not a “set it and forget it” type of market – investors need to stay vigilant.
After the market selloff in 2022—a period that was particularly hard on growth stocks—we think our companies are attractively priced for the next five years, which is our baseline investment horizon.
The Federal Reserve Board reduced banking reserve requirements to zero in March 2020. So banks in the United States are technically not required to back customers' deposits with anything.
During his spring break, Johnson Financial Group Portfolio Manager Brian Schaefer had the time to read “A Gentleman in Moscow,” which got him thinking about the how the current market moves could impact the American experiment. In this investment commentary, Schaefer discusses the MOVE and VIX indexes and what they might say about the markets.
There are four critical reasons why the dollar will not lose its global reserve status anytime soon.
Insurance & Annuities
The Year 2030: My Conversation with ChatRET Clients
I wrote this article in 2030 after I interviewed several retirees whose income plans were designed by ChatRET.
A New Playbook for Portfolio Diversification
Transitioning into the post-COVID investment environment shifts the foundations of portfolio construction that investors relied on in recent decades. On full display in 2022, inflation and recession risk punished both bonds and stocks together to historic declines.
The Aftershock Economy
The first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt.
Weekly Unemployment Claims Jump to Highest Since October 2021
This morning's seasonally adjusted 261,000 initial claims was up 28,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading came in well above the forecast of 235,000. This is the highest level of initial jobless claims since October 2021.
VettaFi Honored As Finalist for 2023 “Wealthie” Award In Research Innovation
Earlier this month, WealthManagement.com announced the finalists for its 2023 Industry Awards (the “Wealthies”). VettaFi is one of two firms to be recognized for outstanding achievement in research innovation. The Wealthies was the first award program of its kind to honor companies, organizations, and individuals supporting financial advisor success.
The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Macro Outlook Retakes Spotlight
We see the market’s focus returning to higher-for-longer rates and sticky inflation after a U.S. debt ceiling deal. We prefer an up-in-quality portfolio.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 31, 2023 close.
The Top Five Mistakes Advisors Make in Surge Meetings
Too many advisors jump into surge poorly prepared to deliver massive value to their clients. Here are five common mistakes and how to avoid them.
Preparing for Volatility: The Debt Ceiling and The End of US Exceptionalism
The US debt ceiling negotiations brought considerable volatility to market prices.
Is Jeremy Siegel Right About Stocks for the Long Run?
The empirical evidence supports Seigel’s general assertion that stocks beat inflation in the long run. But the inflation-hedging benefits of stocks aren’t perfect.
Which Fund to Choose for Exposure to the Reinsurance Risk Premium
I will analyze the pros and cons of three funds to access the reinsurance market.
What are 529 Plan Qualified Expenses?
While tuition is the main qualified expense you think of when you get a 529, there are other tangential education expenses that will also qualify.
Complex, Significant Wealth Warrants Elevated Support
Managing substantial wealth often requires specialized capabilities and expertise.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: May Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. May saw a 339,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. The forecast was for 180,000 jobs gained.
Hedge Funds at War for Top Traders Dangle $120 Million Payouts
When portfolio manager David Lipner said he was quitting billionaire Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management to join a rival, the hedge fund countered with an unusual proposal: A one-year paid sabbatical and an incentive upon return if Lipner stayed.
Can you Bank On Truist Financial’s 6.69% Dividend?
Truist Financial Corporation is a purpose-driven financial services company committed to inspiring and building better lives and communities. Truist has a leading market share in many high-growth markets in the country.
Why Favor Higher Quality as Credit Squeeze Tightens
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank heightens the Federal Reserve's policy dilemma over fighting inflation while maintaining financial stability. We analyze what the crisis means for the banking system and the economy.
Ensure your Clients' Estate Plans are SECURE
Provisions of the SECURE Act may require advisors to revisit estate plans for clients who aren't utilizing their RMDs or who have qualified assets intended for the next generation. Some clients may benefit from strategies for using life insurance to maximize the value of qualified assets while minimizing their tax burden.
Stay informed and proactive to help clients meet their estate planning goals. Learn how to offset the taxes on qualified assets, structure investments for optimal distribution and navigate changes to inherited IRAs and new RMD requirements under the SECURE Act 2.0."
Fintech Brex’s Revenue Surges After Regional Bank Turmoil
Brex, a credit-card startup, has seen a surge in usage of its products following this year’s regional banking turmoil.
The Far-Reaching Effects of Commercial Real Estate’s Downward Spiral
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
Markets Now Accept Rate Cuts Unlikely
Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.
How to Escape the Terrible Meeting Monster in Two Words or Less
We all dread the death clutch of the meeting monster.
The AI Era Unleashed: How NVIDIA’s Stock Boom Reflects The Future Of Tech
If you were doubting whether the age of AI has arrived, NVIDIA’s stock performance this week may have given you second thoughts.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income Inches Up
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in April and is up 5.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year.
Debt Ceiling Standoff: What Investors Should Know
While we don't expect the U.S. government to default, the uncertainty may heighten market volatility in coming days. Here are answers to some of the questions we're hearing most often.
U.S. Agency Bonds: What You Should Know
Bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasuries, without requiring investors to take on too much additional risk.
An End To Tightening Supports Gold
Stocks are having a great year, but gold is doing even better. Year-to-date global equities are up roughly 9% in dollar terms; gold has advanced more than 10%.
$20 Billion Club Strategy Series – Benefits Policy
Over the past decade or so, there has been a broad trend in the industry toward closing and freezing defined benefit plans.
The Bond Market Knows More than the Credit Rating Agencies
Investors should rely on the wisdom of crowds as expressed through bond yields, not credit rating agencies, to judge fixed-income credit risk.
The Urban Challenge: Can Cities Fill the Tax Gap Created by Empty Offices?
Cities and states may have their work cut out for them as they explore solutions to preserve their commercial tax bases and maintain the vibrancy of their downtowns.
Imagine Financial Planning 2030
AI’s arrival will have an increasingly large impact on our lives. That includes investing and, especially, other aspects of financial planning.
Money, Banking, and Markets – Connecting the Dots
Most of us spent moments of our childhood, crayon in hand, connecting numbered dots that gradually revealed a picture that we couldn’t deduce simply by looking at the separate dots. With experience, we got better at looking at those isolated dots and mentally connecting them into a coherent “gestalt.”
Public or Private? A Strategic Question
We prefer private to public credit long term on better return potential. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks as risks fade in the medium term.
Rebalancing Your Clients’ “Purpose Portfolio”
We must understand our clients’ purposes and how they fit together in their lives. We need to take the initiative when rebalancing is in order.
How Stress Testing Retirement Plans Builds Client Confidence
A better retirement stress test would focus on the standard of living in retirement and how spending would need to change in times of market turmoil or heightened inflation.
Buffett’s Calling a Recession—and He’s Probably Right
According to Buffett, the US economy just went through the “most extraordinary economic period since World War II.” That’s a heck of a statement.
Banking Stress and Preferred Securities: Now What?
Banks and financial institutions are big issuers of preferred securities, so the recent banking industry volatility has had an impact. Our guidance on preferreds is unchanged but with some caveats.
The Long and Short of It
What generally follows that expression is a succinct synopsis. We’re always trying to be concise;
however, distilling complex economic and investment matters usually requires several pages.
Pre-Election Strategies for Wealthy Americans
HNW Americans need to be prepared for every contingency, including Democrats winning a trifecta of POTUS and majorities in both houses of Congress.
What To Do When Stuff Happens
When markets turn volatile, it’s not time to despair. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, offers some judicious perspectives on how to turn volatility into opportunity.
Wall Street Built a $370 Billion Business Cloning Quant Trades
Deep in the bowels of Wall Street, there’s a surprisingly successful counterfeiting operation underway: The world’s largest banks have created a booming business churning out imitation quant trades.
Policy and Tax Changes Impacting HNW Clients in 2023
Advisors are looking ahead to the policy and tax changes impacting their high-net-worth clients. Those include changes stemming from the passage of Secure 2.0 Act.
CB Leading Economic Index: Forecasts Mild Recession by Mid-2023
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April dropped to 107.5 from March's revised figure of 108.2. This is the 13th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009, and the lowest reading since September 2020. Today's reading represented a 0.6% month-over-month decline, consistent with the forecast.
Debt-Ceiling Tail Hedges Are ‘Cheap Lottery Tickets,’ Bank of America Says
Investor indifference to the threat of a prolonged debt-ceiling impasse has left a handful of tail-risk strategies almost too cheap to pass up.
Less Talk, More Action to Support Female Advisors
Equita Financial Network is helping women build independent financial advisory firms efficiently with tangible, meaningful support.
Nine Ways to Protect Financial Plans from Bad Decisions by Family Members
A long-term financial plan can be dismantled late in life by adult children, usually with good intentions. What can you do to guard against this possibility?
Does It Still Make Sense to Buy I-Bonds?
Nearly a year ago, I – provisionally and with qualifications – declared I-Bonds to be the fabled “free lunch” due to the remarkable 9.62% rate they were paying. That rate came down – a lot – so should you still buy them?
Monte Carlo Simulations During Uncertainty
Whether it’s high inflation or greater market volatility, Monte Carlo analysis will reveal how those uncertainties impact a client and provide peace of mind about their plans.
U.S. Debt Stand-off To Add to Volatility
We think the U.S. debt limit showdown will spark renewed volatility in markets. That risk reinforces why we stay invested and cautious by going up in quality.
Worried Markets Want to Believe a Debt-Ceiling Deal Can Be Done
There are still some optimists in the market confident that a solution will be found in time to the US debt-ceiling crisis even as the Washington stalemate persists and many investors shun the most at-risk Treasury bill issues.
The Danger Beneath the Surface: How Bad Policy Led to Bank Failures
The Banking emergency arising with mid-sized, regional banks is a direct consequence of policy decisions. Examine the causes of bank failures in 2023 and the potential for larger contagion.
The Probability of Something Bad Happening
We are presented with this decision in finance a lot. There is a small probability of something bad happening and a large probability that everything will be fine. What do you do to insure yourself against something bad happening? Because there is no such thing as a free lunch.
Consumer Price Index: April Headline at 4.9%, Down from March
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in at 4.9%, down from 5.0% the previous month (n.s.a) and lower than the forecast of 5.0%. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).
Four Secrets from a Referral Coach
A relationship-based business thrives on one’s ability to nurture, support, leverage and maintain the connections to the business and the people associated with it. Referrals require trust from all parties.
Commercial Real Estate: Going Granular
Financial cracks from rate hikes have led to jitters over commercial real estate. Yet granularity is key. We see opportunities in some U.S. industrial properties.
The Behavioral Benefits of Annuities
Last year, 2022, saw record annuity sales across several categories. Now, nearly halfway through 2023, many of the same macro-economic factors that drove sales last year are still present. While it’s too soon to say what 2023 annuity sales will look like, our guest today will share why annuities can be a valuable addition to a retirement strategy, regardless of market and economic conditions.
Unraveling The Regional Banking Crisis Amid Skyrocketing Interest Rates
The U.S. regional banking crisis is intensifying as rising interest rates put smaller banks at risk, leading to significant losses in the sector. Amid the turmoil, gold and gold mining stocks may offer investors a potentially safer alternative to manage risk.
Berkshire Die-Hards Flock to Omaha as Market Volatility Reigns
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett made his name by being greedy when others were fearful and fearful when others were greedy, dispensing folksy wisdom along the way.
PacWest, Western Alliance Depositors Sit Tight in Stock Turmoil
Investors have punished a handful of US regional banks amid fears the turmoil will ensnare more lenders. But depositors at some — at least for now — appear to be sitting tight.
Risk Mitigation's Crucial, Complex Role for Wealthy Families
Along with identifying your goals and time horizon, assessing risk is a key part of building a holistic financial plan. And while affluent investors generally have higher risk tolerances, determining their individual risk profiles isn’t straightforward.
Lacy Hunt – Fed Policy is Destroying Growth
The Fed and its loose monetary policy are to blame, according to Lacy Hunt, for high inflation, excessive risk taking, slow growth and other maladies afflicting our economy.
Regional Banks Sink as PacWest Weighs Strategic Options
PacWest Bancorp has become the latest focal point of investor concern about the health of US regional banks, shedding nearly half its value in premarket trading, a day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said authorities were closer to containing the turmoil that’s claimed four lenders this year.
Wall Street Is Betting the Regional Bank Crisis Isn’t Over Yet
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon made a bold call on Monday: his firm’s rescue of First Republic Bank ended the initial phase of the turmoil engulfing banks.
Effects Of The Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Starting To Show
Though equities have proven resilient, more of the long-expected effects of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) rapid interest rate-raising policy arrived in April.
Economic Carbon Monoxide
Lending standards are a lot like carbon monoxide since they operate in the back ground. When the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOOS) showed that banks significantly increased lending standards in the third quarter, no one on Wall Street noticed.
Do U.S. Investors Underestimate Risk?
Investors who base their beliefs about the distribution of possible stock returns on historical data from their home country underestimate the probability of experiencing a significant crash.
Services Inflation is Stuck
There have been glimmers of hope in 2023 that the inflation fixation of 2022 was a transitory phenomenon. In particular, the market has begun to more closely monitor jobs market data releases to try to spot signs of a labor market and wage slowdown.
Over One In Five Americans Now Own Crypto On Banking Uncertainty
Cryptocurrency adoption in the U.S. increased amid fears of a full-blown banking crisis, a new poll finds. According to Morning Consult, 22% of Americans, over one in five, said they owned at least one form of crypto in April, representing a four-percentage-point increase from January.
If I Were King…
We have the royal coronation in England to remind us that once upon a time, one person would issue all the laws – which is an unfair but very effective way to make things happen. Here are the edicts that I would issue if the financial services world made me its king.
How ’Bout Those Housing Doom Predictions
A few months ago, the internet was filling up with predictions that we’d have a 2008-style crash in home prices. The thinking was that the increase in interest rates would cause mortgage payments to skyrocket and price out an entire generation of homebuyers.
The Only Way to Stop Bank Runs Is to Get Rid of Banks
The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Group AG and others have gotten financial authorities thinking again about bank runs and liquidity regulations — and whether some rules ought to be tweaked to make the system safer.
Retirement Trends Anticipated by 2030
Principal Financial Group® recently released the results of an extensive survey it conducted asking advisors and employers their expectations for the future of retirement. Among the key trends it identified were an aging workforce with evolving financial planning needs. At the other extreme, Gen Z workers are beginning their careers with investment and planning preferences that differ markedly from older generations. Other findings included the anticipated need for personalization, financial wellness monitoring and counseling, and better services for retirement planning.
Using Financial Advice to Calm Deposit Flight
How can advisors ensure that clients will keep their assets with you?
Fabricated Fairy Tales and Section 2A
Amid the overabundance of economic opinion, unexamined clichés, and unverified assertions, and nutrient-free word salad dispensed by talking heads on television, market observers, and even Federal Reserve officials, I often wonder how many of them have ever taken the time to carefully examine historical data.
The Problems with Monte Carlo are in Your Mind
Here’s how we can improve financial planning projections to result in better forecasts, advice and guidance to households.
Why Financial Literacy Programs Fail
April is Financial Literacy month, but all that elicits from the advice industry is a collective yawn.
A Case Study of How Recency Bias Destroyed Investor Wealth
Resisting recency bias is the key to earning the premiums available from all risky assets, as this example illustrates.
Will Banking Sector Issues Affect Corporate Bonds?
Corporate bond investors may be wondering if banking sector turmoil will affect financial institution bond issuers. Here's what to know now.
Should You Worry About the Safety of Schwab Accounts?
Many investors, including my clients, have been worried about their Schwab account safety. Are they right to be worried?
Bitcoin’s 70% Surge Fuels an ETF Showdown Between Bulls and Bears
Bitcoin’s dominant showing in 2023 is leaving exchange-traded fund investors divided on what’s next for the world’s biggest cryptocurrency.
The Cadence of Crisis
Technology enhancements have increased the speed of panic.
Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the significance of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. He argues that it likely doesn’t portend a wave of banking failures but may amplify preexisting wariness among investors and lenders, leading to further credit tightening and additional pain across a range of industries and sectors.
The Keto Annuity and the Future of Financial Planning
Keto diets are a proven regimen to reduce weight and foster a healthy lifestyle. The financial equivalent – the keto annuity – will drive successful outcomes for your female clients and build a stronger practice.
Intermittent Storms
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
Strategic Income Outlook: And We Thought 2022 Was a Crazy Year
2023 has already been an eventful year, featuring a banking crisis and more Fed rate hikes. In our view, this is not a “set it and forget it” type of market – investors need to stay vigilant.
Although Stocks Were Volatile During the First Quarter, High Quality Has Come Back Into Favor
After the market selloff in 2022—a period that was particularly hard on growth stocks—we think our companies are attractively priced for the next five years, which is our baseline investment horizon.
More Bailouts for Bankers Won't Fix a Broken Financial System
The Federal Reserve Board reduced banking reserve requirements to zero in March 2020. So banks in the United States are technically not required to back customers' deposits with anything.
“The Fear Index” and “A Gentleman in Moscow”
During his spring break, Johnson Financial Group Portfolio Manager Brian Schaefer had the time to read “A Gentleman in Moscow,” which got him thinking about the how the current market moves could impact the American experiment. In this investment commentary, Schaefer discusses the MOVE and VIX indexes and what they might say about the markets.
The Dollars Death? Not So Fast - Part One
There are four critical reasons why the dollar will not lose its global reserve status anytime soon.