What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Impact investors can help devastated communities recover and build resilience.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
State and federal agencies are providing immediate assistance and financial aid for essentials for wildfire victims in California. Our Bill Cass shares some financial strategies to secure emergency funds and plan finances.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new book to promote. So while I am loath to fuel the sales campaign, his latest bomb in an interview with the Financial Times — warning of a “death spiral” for Britain’s sovereign debt — requires a riposte.
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s head of research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
On this special New Year’s episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the year in review. The two discussed the top ETF stories of 2024, including the record-breaking $1 trillion in ETF industry AUM, the rise of bitcoin ETFs, and ongoing adoption of options-based ETFs.
MicroStrategy Inc. bought $101 million of Bitcoin after announcing that it would use perpetual preferred stock as well as common shares and debt to acquire more of the cryptocurrency.
Enrollees in Medicare Advantage may end up paying steep costs for specialty care that doesn't meet their healthcare needs, advisors shared.
Caryl Falvey shares retirement-conversation insights from MIT Agelabs and MassMutual Strategic Distributors.
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
When Jaguar’s “copy nothing” brand reboot hit late last year, one self-styled car enthusiast replied on X: “What the actual hell is this.” Jaguar’s response: “The future.”
The clouds that hung over the financial-technology industry in 2024 appear to be clearing as interest-rate cuts, recoveries in fintech stocks and promises of a looser regulatory environment in the second Trump administration paint a more promising outlook for startups.
I expect three major innovation cycles to dramatically affect our world in the next decade, with impacts comparable to steam engines, electricity, automobiles, and even the internet. Every new invention helps us explore even further.
We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
Financial loss is one of the most common secondary losses. The death of a family breadwinner can bring crushing financial uncertainty. Even when the deceased was not the primary earner, grief can derail financial stability.
A rude surprise could be in store for the millions of Americans who get health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. If Congress doesn’t act next year, enhanced premium subsidies will expire by December, causing enrollees’ payments to increase by more than 75% on average.
Bond traders have rarely suffered so much from a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Now they fear 2025 threatens more of the same.
Start the new year right by reviewing and revamping your financial plan.
Private credit firms want more than corporate lending. The largest are laying the groundwork to finance everything from auto loans and residential mortgages to chip manufacturing and data centers in an effort to swell the size of the market by the trillions.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.
Why cyclical leadership in equities could continue into 2025.
Brent Olson and Thomas Ross, fixed income portfolio managers, believe that high yield bonds offer comfortable driving for now, but investors might need to negotiate more difficult terrain later in 2025.
The U.S. economy is experiencing a remarkable period of economic stabilization and growth
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump's bromance could be rekindled in 2025, if both sides play their cards right.
We all know someone who has passed away without their affairs in order. As financial advisors, we have a responsibility to ensure that this doesn’t happen to our clients.
Double-digit increases in rates are common. I’m definitely feeling the pain, as I suspect you are. So here are a few things I do to help my clients save some money.
Joel Liu, J.D. Head of Advanced Sales MassMutual Strategic Distributors, discusses the impending wealth transfer.
Portfolio managers and market strategists from Payden & Rygel review the opportunities and risks ahead for four bond market sectors: high yield, emerging markets, global bonds and low duration securities.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
The surprise nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head healthcare policy in the U.S. caused substantial volatility in November. But despite heightened uncertainty, the sector’s long-term outlook appears intact, say Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons – giving investors a potential opportunity to invest at attractive valuations.
Waiting until 67 or 70 may not feel like the best choice in the moment. Yet the extra income could mean more freedom from financial stress and more ability to enjoy your later years with peace of mind.
A resilient US economy and deepening geopolitical tensions around the world are making asset managers rethink their expectations for a weaker dollar.
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
Quite a few observers have described the dramatic fall of the Barnier government in France not just as a political crisis but also an economic and financial crisis.
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Assets in money market funds reached an all-time high of $7 trillion this past month. Now that rates are moving lower, money market yields may not be as attractive to many investors and assets may gradually leave money funds.
Insurance & Annuities
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: January 2025
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
California Wildfires: Municipal Bond Investors Can Make a Difference
Impact investors can help devastated communities recover and build resilience.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of January 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
Principal, Pimco Bet on Debt From Riskier High-Grade Companies
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Unemployment Claims Up 11K, Higher Than Expected
In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.
Macquarie Shuts US Debt Capital Markets in Private Credit Pivot
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Red Dye, Wildfires, and Winter Storms in Wichita Have 1 Thing in Common
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Lessons From My Investing Career
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Signs of Strength & Softness
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Not Time Yet for Stocks to Worry About Rising Rates
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
Priced for Perfection: S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI Trade
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Existing Home Sales Up for 3rd Straight Month in December
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
2025 Fixed Income Outlook
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
U.S. Household Incomes: A 50+ Year Perspective
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
Rebuilding Hope: Immediate Assistance and Financial Guidance for Wildfire Victims
State and federal agencies are providing immediate assistance and financial aid for essentials for wildfire victims in California. Our Bill Cass shares some financial strategies to secure emergency funds and plan finances.
No, Ray Dalio, There's Not a UK Debt Death Spiral
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new book to promote. So while I am loath to fuel the sales campaign, his latest bomb in an interview with the Financial Times — warning of a “death spiral” for Britain’s sovereign debt — requires a riposte.
Q4 2024 Commentary: Defying Expectations, Embracing Optimization
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
Earth, Wind, and Fire
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s head of research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Restoring Fiscal Control Can’t Wait Much Longer
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
Periodic Table of Commodity Returns Revels Winners and Losers for 2024
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Are California Fires a Risk to the Muni Market?
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
The Inflation Genie Is Moving to the White House
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Median Household Income by State: 2023 Update
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
The $2 Trillion Home Insurance Nightmare Is Getting Even Worse
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Early Groundwork Is Key for Implementing Lifetime Income Solutions
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
The Missing Piece in America’s Healthcare Debate
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
Private Equity Does Not Belong in Your 401(k)
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
U.S. Household Incomes: A 50+ Year Perspective
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
Unemployment Claims Drop to 11-Month Low
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
2025 Year Ahead: Certainties for an Uncertain World
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
The January 25 Dashboard: Our 3 Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
Privatize the USPS? Not in an Era of Crony Capitalism
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
Three Investment Lessons From 2024
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
Biggest ETF Stories of 2024
On this special New Year’s episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the year in review. The two discussed the top ETF stories of 2024, including the record-breaking $1 trillion in ETF industry AUM, the rise of bitcoin ETFs, and ongoing adoption of options-based ETFs.
MicroStrategy Buys Bitcoin After Adding Preferred Offering
MicroStrategy Inc. bought $101 million of Bitcoin after announcing that it would use perpetual preferred stock as well as common shares and debt to acquire more of the cryptocurrency.
Ignore Concerns About Medicare Advantage at Your Peril
Enrollees in Medicare Advantage may end up paying steep costs for specialty care that doesn't meet their healthcare needs, advisors shared.
Why Words Matter in Client Conversations About Retirement
Caryl Falvey shares retirement-conversation insights from MIT Agelabs and MassMutual Strategic Distributors.
How Climate Volatility Is Redefining Commodity Markets
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
A ‘Made in China’ Crisis Awaits Big Auto
When Jaguar’s “copy nothing” brand reboot hit late last year, one self-styled car enthusiast replied on X: “What the actual hell is this.” Jaguar’s response: “The future.”
Regulation, Deals and Crypto: Fintech Themes to Watch in 2025
The clouds that hung over the financial-technology industry in 2024 appear to be clearing as interest-rate cuts, recoveries in fintech stocks and promises of a looser regulatory environment in the second Trump administration paint a more promising outlook for startups.
Live Free and Don't Die
I expect three major innovation cycles to dramatically affect our world in the next decade, with impacts comparable to steam engines, electricity, automobiles, and even the internet. Every new invention helps us explore even further.
Reflections on 2024
We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.
The Popular Rise of Lifetime Income on Annuities
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
How Grief’s Emotional Impact Is Compounded by Secondary Financial Loss
Financial loss is one of the most common secondary losses. The death of a family breadwinner can bring crushing financial uncertainty. Even when the deceased was not the primary earner, grief can derail financial stability.
Obamacare Is More Popular and Costlier Than Ever
A rude surprise could be in store for the millions of Americans who get health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. If Congress doesn’t act next year, enhanced premium subsidies will expire by December, causing enrollees’ payments to increase by more than 75% on average.
Bond Traders Face 2025 Amid Most Agonizing Easing in Decades
Bond traders have rarely suffered so much from a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Now they fear 2025 threatens more of the same.
Financial Resolutions for 2025
Start the new year right by reviewing and revamping your financial plan.
Private Credit Plots Expansion in Bid for $40 Trillion Prize
Private credit firms want more than corporate lending. The largest are laying the groundwork to finance everything from auto loans and residential mortgages to chip manufacturing and data centers in an effort to swell the size of the market by the trillions.
CB Leading Economic Index: Small Rise in November
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.
Economic Resilience Supports Cyclical Rally
Why cyclical leadership in equities could continue into 2025.
High Yield Bonds Outlook: Taking the Scenic Route in 2025
Brent Olson and Thomas Ross, fixed income portfolio managers, believe that high yield bonds offer comfortable driving for now, but investors might need to negotiate more difficult terrain later in 2025.
The Beat Goes On
The U.S. economy is experiencing a remarkable period of economic stabilization and growth
The Trump-Xi Bromance Has a Chance in 2025
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump's bromance could be rekindled in 2025, if both sides play their cards right.
My Uncle’s Early Death Hit Our Family Hard: A Case for Estate Planning
We all know someone who has passed away without their affairs in order. As financial advisors, we have a responsibility to ensure that this doesn’t happen to our clients.
Help Clients Save Money on Property and Casualty Insurance
Double-digit increases in rates are common. I’m definitely feeling the pain, as I suspect you are. So here are a few things I do to help my clients save some money.
Adapting to Seismic Shifts in Financial Services
Joel Liu, J.D. Head of Advanced Sales MassMutual Strategic Distributors, discusses the impending wealth transfer.
What’s Ahead for Fixed Income in 2025?
Portfolio managers and market strategists from Payden & Rygel review the opportunities and risks ahead for four bond market sectors: high yield, emerging markets, global bonds and low duration securities.
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Despite Political Headwinds, Healthcare Stocks Stay Anchored to Innovation
The surprise nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head healthcare policy in the U.S. caused substantial volatility in November. But despite heightened uncertainty, the sector’s long-term outlook appears intact, say Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons – giving investors a potential opportunity to invest at attractive valuations.
The $182,000 Social Security Mistake That Could Limit Your Retirement
Waiting until 67 or 70 may not feel like the best choice in the moment. Yet the extra income could mean more freedom from financial stress and more ability to enjoy your later years with peace of mind.
Dollar Optimism Is Spreading From Hedge Funds to Asset Managers
A resilient US economy and deepening geopolitical tensions around the world are making asset managers rethink their expectations for a weaker dollar.
Homes for Christmas
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
The December 2024 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
2025 Investment Outlook: Building the Transformation
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
Year-End Estate Planning: Strategies for Maximizing Tax Benefits and Legacy Planning
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
This Is Not France’s "Truss" Moment
Quite a few observers have described the dramatic fall of the Barnier government in France not just as a political crisis but also an economic and financial crisis.
Monthly Global Economic Report
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Rethinking Cash
Assets in money market funds reached an all-time high of $7 trillion this past month. Now that rates are moving lower, money market yields may not be as attractive to many investors and assets may gradually leave money funds.