Asset Allocation

The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.

The roller coaster continues! A stronger than expected first quarter earnings season and encouraging signs on the trade front—highlighted by the US-UK trade deal—helped lift the S&P 500 from its April 8 near-bear market lows, reversing nearly all post-Liberation Day (April 2) losses.

In the latest edition of Design Matters, titled “What’s the Frequency… Russell?” Greg Behar of Westwood’s Managed Investment Solutions (MIS) team examines how the Russell U.S. Indexes’ decision to return to a semi-annual reconstitution schedule is transforming risk management practices, market participation and the future of custom indexing.

The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.

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As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.

Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.

At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.

Preparing for retirement involves more than finances and should include a focus on health, wellbeing and goals. Our Mike Dullaghan explains why it’s important to start preparing 10 years ahead of retirement.

Fed officials remain patient, likely awaiting hard evidence of a weaker U.S. labor market before considering rate cuts.

Central banks continued to stockpile gold in the first quarter.

As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.

Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.

Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.

Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Importantly, each of these systems work together.

Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.

When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.

Trend-following strategies can offer attractive, positively skewed returns, with large positive outperformance often coinciding with large equity selloffs, thereby offering tail protection.

Despite negative GDP growth in Q1 and global trade tensions, markets are showing surprising resilience. Investors are betting tariffs will not bite as hard as feared earlier in April and that deals will emerge to soften the blow.

A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.

Markets clawed back early losses in April, but one thing has become clear – policy uncertainty and risk isn’t fading, it’s spreading.

One of the advantages of individual bonds is the ability to custom-select bonds that fit individual needs and/or goals

This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.

US markets struggled in the first half of April due to tariff-related worries. The second half saw rallies amid policy reversal.

In investing, success is often judged by numbers—returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody.

While the S&P 500 index was almost unchanged in April, the dollar remained extremely weak, ending the month down over 4%.

April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.

For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.

Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.

Like sailors lured by the Sirens' song, today’s investors risk being captivated by seductive narratives in the market. While diversification remains a time-tested strategy for building wealth, we examine the risks and returns investors are embracing today.

Sustainable adjustments to trade imbalances require supportive monetary and fiscal policies – not just currency intervention.

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SEI^® (NASDAQ:SEIC) today announced that Summit Wealth Group, a fast-growing enterprise advisor practice, has selected SEI to support the firm’s vision and evolution for strategic growth.

Even in normal times, managing an investment program is a challenging job. But when you add on tariffs and trade wars, it's bound to lead to some sleepless nights. Learn how an OCIO firm can provide relief.

Stable value funds can offer capital preservation and stable returns. Our Mike Dullaghan explains the key role of stable value in long-term retirement savings.

With flexibility, humility and disciplined processes, equity investors can find a way forward.

Despite the recent rally, the correction continues. While wanting to “buy the dip” is tempting, there has been enough technical damage to warrant remaining cautious in the near term.

Sharp losses in investment grade (IG) corporate bonds this month have reminded us of the potential advantages of rules-based fixed income ladders.

Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.

Think of the drafting process like investing—scouts meticulously rank players based on their strength, speed, flexibility, and mental acuity, much like we analyze the economy and financial markets to shape our outlook. The true value of these players might take years to unfold...

The markets rebounded strongly last week, holding ground despite the lingering cloud of uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations. Importantly, while tariffs and dollar weakness are stirring short-term concerns, long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, setting a strong case for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates.

Small-caps have suffered in early 2025, but increased market breadth could support a recovery.

Although President Trump has said he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, the Trump administration may be testing the laws underpinning Fed independence.

Unexpected wider and larger-scope tariff announcements have sent tremors through bond and equity markets, resulting in a brisk sell-off that signals investors’ caution.

Are you a “speculator” or an “investor”? This is an essential question that every individual deploying capital into the financial markets must answer. The reason is that how you answer that question determines how you should behave during market cycles.

Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.

Five pivotal U.S. economic considerations, including tariffs, monetary policy, fiscal policy, debt overhang, and demographics, are aligning to depress economic growth for the balance of this year and into 2026.

U.S. policy uncertainty and the ebbs and flows of AI advancement are likely to stoke continued volatility in the world’s stock markets.

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida shares three charts highlighting possible macro inflection points in the business cycle: from growth and inflation to debt and labor.

A well-planned defensive strategy can position equity portfolios to be resilient in a very harsh market environment.

Downgrades and defaults can detract from corporate bond portfolio performance. Let’s look at how applying fundamental credit research may help reduce these risks.

A raft of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US could bruise China’s export revenues in the short term. But its domestically focused economic engine and shrinking dependency on US trade should minimize fallout in the long run.

Risk-assets struggled amidst extremely volatile price action as investors weighed the probabilities of tariffs hitting profits and valuations.

A historic sell-off enhances value, with high yields, strong fundamentals, and ample reserves mitigating policy risks.

Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is a key driver of our forecast this quarter, which includes an increased probability of a recession.