The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on durable goods new orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with two adjustments.
US market structure was back in the news recently with several stocks experiencing irregular price movements on the morning of January 24.
The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done.
As of January 31, 2023, the 10-year note was 300 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 183K new claims, down 3k from the previous week's unrevised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 200K.
Behind closed doors, Federal Reserve policy makers worry rallying markets are impeding their efforts to control inflation. But every time Jerome Powell goes out in public he gives them more room to run.
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for December, released last Friday, shows that core inflation continues to be well above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 4.42%. The December core CPI release was higher, at 5.71%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
The market has high hopes for the Fed, however, comparing this to the Fed’s own expectations, we see a very different narrative.
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
A trading tool like portfolio insurance is poised to trigger a stunning display of market instability.
Traders are betting artificial intelligence and machine learning will have the biggest impact on financial markets in the coming years.
This year’s 40% rally in Bitcoin is heading toward a potentially big test in the shape of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision.
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report, with data through December, is now available.
As of January 30, the price of regular and premium gas were up 7 and 8 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.89 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.09. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.90 and is down 4.6% from last week.
A plunge in pricing power was one of the most notable developments we found in our latest quarterly survey of our credit analysts, who follow more than two dozen industries.
A slowdown in US economic activity this year is likely to impact most states, which could face budget deficits, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bonds.
RIAs will be more financially successful, will retain and attract more investment assets, and will produce superior financial results for their retiree clients when they embrace new thinking that begins with the acknowledgment that, in practice, the safe withdrawal rate is a fiction.
The headline number of 107.1 was a decrease of 1.9 from the upwardly revised final reading of 109.0 for December.
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
Federal Reserve officials are on track to consider pausing interest rate hikes following their March meeting if more evidence of cooling inflation rolls in.
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
Annie Duke’s latest and best of her books, Quit, is on making decisions under uncertainty.
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
Having oscillated between anticipating another 50-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve next week or a downshift to 25 basis points, traders have settled solidly on the latter, guided both by Fed officials’ comments and by media reports.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to -0.49 in December from -0.51 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, but two categories improved from November. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.33 in December from -0.14 in November.
The latest new orders number at 5.6% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 2.5% estimate. The series is up 11.9% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was down 0.1% MoM and up 2.1% YoY.
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.
Federal Reserve officials, heartened by an inflation slowdown, are poised to slow the pace of their interest-rate hikes for a second straight meeting and debate how much more they need to tighten to get prices under control.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.33M was down 1.55% from the November reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.37M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.382M was slightly above the Investing.com forecast of 1.359M and is a 1.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.401M.
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
Bond traders were once deemed so powerful and all-knowing that Tom Wolfe described them as the “Masters of the Universe” in his classic 1987 novel “The Bonfire of the Vanities” that used Wall Street as its backdrop.
The latest manufacturing index came in at -8.9, up 4.8 from last month's -13.7, marking the index's fifth negative reading in a row and the seventh in the last eight months. The three-month moving average came in at -12.7, down from last month. The six-month outlook came in at 4.9, up from the previous month's -0.9. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.
Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
Wall Street bond dealers are moving rapidly to the sidelines of US Treasury auctions — the very activity that defines their status at the heart of the world’s biggest bond market.
Let me share a story of an RIA who will be forced to mount a legal defense because of a lawsuit that is likely to be filed by two of his retired clients.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
We are now seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. soared Wednesday, more than wiping out a 46% drop last week and sparking a rally in other so-called meme stocks.
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
With market volatility expected to continue in 2023, the biggest question on investors’ minds is how they can prepare for the investing challenges ahead. While preparing for volatility is a good start, it also brings opportunity if you know where to look.
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
Healthcare stocks have remained in vogue through volatile markets, driven by increased interest in the sector during COVID-19.
Buffer ETFs
The "Real" Goods on the December Durable Goods Data
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on durable goods new orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with two adjustments.
Don’t Call This a Flash Crash!
US market structure was back in the news recently with several stocks experiencing irregular price movements on the morning of January 24.
Research Reports
The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of January 31, 2023, the 10-year note was 300 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 3K, Better Than Forecast
This morning's seasonally adjusted 183K new claims, down 3k from the previous week's unrevised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 200K.
The More Powell Spoke, the More Stock and Bond Markets Rallied
Behind closed doors, Federal Reserve policy makers worry rallying markets are impeding their efforts to control inflation. But every time Jerome Powell goes out in public he gives them more room to run.
CPI and PCE: Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for December, released last Friday, shows that core inflation continues to be well above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 4.42%. The December core CPI release was higher, at 5.71%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
What to Watch
The market has high hopes for the Fed, however, comparing this to the Fed’s own expectations, we see a very different narrative.
Where is the Recession?
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
How "0DTE" Options Will Cause the Next Black Monday
A trading tool like portfolio insurance is poised to trigger a stunning display of market instability.
Traders See AI Tech Shaping Their Future, JPMorgan Finds
Traders are betting artificial intelligence and machine learning will have the biggest impact on financial markets in the coming years.
Bitcoin Is About to Test the Adage 'Don't Fight the Fed'
This year’s 40% rally in Bitcoin is heading toward a potentially big test in the shape of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision.
December Job Openings & Labor Turnover
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report, with data through December, is now available.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Continue to Climb for 5th Week In A Row
As of January 30, the price of regular and premium gas were up 7 and 8 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.89 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.09. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.90 and is down 4.6% from last week.
Corporate Health Weakens as Pricing Power Falls Sharply
A plunge in pricing power was one of the most notable developments we found in our latest quarterly survey of our credit analysts, who follow more than two dozen industries.
US Budget Season Implications for the Muni Market
A slowdown in US economic activity this year is likely to impact most states, which could face budget deficits, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bonds.
The Fiction of Safe Withdrawal Rates
RIAs will be more financially successful, will retain and attract more investment assets, and will produce superior financial results for their retiree clients when they embrace new thinking that begins with the acknowledgment that, in practice, the safe withdrawal rate is a fiction.
Consumer Confidence Declines in January
The headline number of 107.1 was a decrease of 1.9 from the upwardly revised final reading of 109.0 for December.
4Q 2022 GMO Quarterly Letter
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
Fed Points Toward a Pause in May Once Hikes Have Time to Sink In
Federal Reserve officials are on track to consider pausing interest rate hikes following their March meeting if more evidence of cooling inflation rolls in.
Top Bond Fund Bets Markets Are Wrong on Rates, Again
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
Stocks Decreasing to Start the Busy Week
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
How the Greatest Female Poker Player Reduces Risk
Annie Duke’s latest and best of her books, Quit, is on making decisions under uncertainty.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Why Have Equal-Weighted Portfolios Outperformed the Market?
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
Charitable Giving, Looking Back and Forward
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
Five Things to Watch For in the Debt-Ceiling Talks
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
Why the Fed Should Raise Rates by Half a Percent
Having oscillated between anticipating another 50-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve next week or a downshift to 25 basis points, traders have settled solidly on the latter, guided both by Fed officials’ comments and by media reports.
Chicago Fed: Little Change in Economic Growth in December
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to -0.49 in December from -0.51 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, but two categories improved from November. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.33 in December from -0.14 in November.
Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 5.6% in December
The latest new orders number at 5.6% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 2.5% estimate. The series is up 11.9% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was down 0.1% MoM and up 2.1% YoY.
The Perversion Afflicting Value Investors
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
Global Economic Outlook: Run-of-the-Mill
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Investing With a Flat Yield Curve
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Debt-Limit Fight Risks Early End to Fed Quantitative Tightening
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
IG Outlook: Positive Technicals, Deteriorating Fundamentals
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
CB LEI: 10th Consecutive Decline in December, Recession Signal Continues
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Why I’m Waiting for the Fed to Pivot
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Fortune Doesn’t Always Favor the Bold: The Perils of Concentrated Stock Positions
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
US Market Watchers Are Fretting Over the Biggest January Options Expiry in a Decade
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
China Stocks on Cusp of Bull Market as Year of the Tiger Ends
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.
Fed Set to Slow Rate Hikes Again and Debate How Much Further to Go
Federal Reserve officials, heartened by an inflation slowdown, are poised to slow the pace of their interest-rate hikes for a second straight meeting and debate how much more they need to tighten to get prices under control.
What the US Debt-Ceiling Battle Means for Your Money
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 1.55% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.33M was down 1.55% from the November reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.37M.
New Residential Housing Starts Down 1.4% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.382M was slightly above the Investing.com forecast of 1.359M and is a 1.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.401M.
Mid-Cap ETFs’ Moment
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
A Not-So-Fresh Start
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
Even the Masters of the Universe Are Stumped
Bond traders were once deemed so powerful and all-knowing that Tom Wolfe described them as the “Masters of the Universe” in his classic 1987 novel “The Bonfire of the Vanities” that used Wall Street as its backdrop.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Continues Decline in January
The latest manufacturing index came in at -8.9, up 4.8 from last month's -13.7, marking the index's fifth negative reading in a row and the seventh in the last eight months. The three-month moving average came in at -12.7, down from last month. The six-month outlook came in at 4.9, up from the previous month's -0.9. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.
The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Continue to Decline
Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.
Asia: The Early Innings of Innovation?
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
Retail Sales Down 1.15% in December, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
Wall Street Dealers Become Bit Players in US Bond Sales
Wall Street bond dealers are moving rapidly to the sidelines of US Treasury auctions — the very activity that defines their status at the heart of the world’s biggest bond market.
Will RIAs be Liable for Failed Retirement Income Planning?
Let me share a story of an RIA who will be forced to mount a legal defense because of a lawsuit that is likely to be filed by two of his retired clients.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Punchbowl Is Gone
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Unfazed by Airline Grounding, Investors Look Ahead to Earnings
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
Global Credit Outlook: Cautious on Turbulence & Technicals
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
Components of the CPI: December
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
December Inflation: The Components
We are now seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
2023 Municipal Bond Playbook: A Page from the 1990s
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
Stocks Falling in Wake of Mixed Banking Results
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
Stocks Grappling With December Inflation Report
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
The Fed Wants Lower Stock Prices
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
Bed Bath & Beyond Surges as Meme Rally Sweeps Up Carvana, AMC
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. soared Wednesday, more than wiping out a 46% drop last week and sparking a rally in other so-called meme stocks.
Top US Banks Slash Bond Sales, a Bright Spot for Investors
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Equities Are Searching for Clarity
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
Actionable ideas for a volatile world
With market volatility expected to continue in 2023, the biggest question on investors’ minds is how they can prepare for the investing challenges ahead. While preparing for volatility is a good start, it also brings opportunity if you know where to look.
Emerging-Market Stocks Rise to Six-Month High Versus S&P 500
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
3 Investment Themes for 2023
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
Banks' Revenue Bonanza Seen Under Threat From Looming US Recession
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
Healthcare Stocks: An Innovative Antidote for Volatile Times
Healthcare stocks have remained in vogue through volatile markets, driven by increased interest in the sector during COVID-19.