With the Fed resuming rate hikes, inflation remaining above target, and market volatility returning as a persistent feature of the investment landscape, advisors are increasingly turning to income not tied to duration or credit risk.
In this webcast, we’ll explore how Buffer ETFs can complement traditional fixed-income allocations and help strengthen the defensive side of a portfolio.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The Nasdaq-VettaFi Asset Allocation Summit this week included insights from leaders at key asset managers discussing the major decisions that advisors are facing. With costs rising and many investors at or near retirement, fixed income and income ETFs, specifically, took up a big part of the conversation. Leaders from BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Fidelity Investments all shared their views on both the fixed income outlook and the use cases for fixed income ETFs right now.
Almost half of the S&P 500’s earnings growth this year traces back to one activity: companies buying chips, servers, power gear, and concrete to build artificial intelligence. That’s the estimate Goldman Sachs published on September 23. It’s also the clearest statement yet of how tightly AI capex and earnings are now linked.
Third-quarter earnings season kicked off this week and expectations are high. Despite the headwinds of higher oil prices and interest rates, economic growth has remained resilient, while the AI investment boom continues to gain momentum. As a result, the S&P 500 is expected to deliver 29% year-over-year earnings growth, marking a third consecutive quarter of 25%+ gains.
Plenty of story-stocks and recent alpha generators are outside AI glamor companies. Absolute and relative strength have ticked up in real-economy sectors that were beaten up as investor dollars flowed to tech. Macro conditions, such as ebbing Treasury rates and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, are wildcards. Still, traders and portfolio managers should listen up for commentary in perhaps unusual places this earnings season.
We believe the combination of AI, robotics, space technology, and quantum computing will be primary drivers of future economic growth.
The third quarter of 2026 emphasized an increasingly divided macro regime for financial advisors and institutional allocators alike. On one end, broad market hopefulness drove steady capital deployment into broad-market beta, while on the other end, raised rate volatility and geopolitical tension forced strategic pivots across fixed income, real assets, and systematic strategies, according to BlackRock’s Q3 earnings call, released October 14.
Over the last decade, a series of policy decisions in DC support the reindustrialization of the United States. Key policy movers include investments in infrastructure, tax policy that allows significant tax benefits for corporate capital expenditures (capex) and domestic research and development, the CHIPS & Science Act and tariff policies, especially the sector-specific 232 tariffs.
In this commentary, we look at three themes shaping our thinking: a shift in who is leading the market, the return of income as a meaningful source of return, and an economy that, in our view, is growing steadily rather than heading toward either extreme.
As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but increasingly differentiated. Economic growth and corporate earnings have remained resilient, while continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other productivity-enhancing technologies has supported capital spending and market sentiment.
In more normal periods like today, hiring broadly matches the labor force growth, and unemployment holds steady. Labor force growth has slowed to about 0.5% a year, so payroll gains have slowed too. Payrolls rose only 29,000 in September and averaged about 45,000 a month over the past year, yet unemployment is still a low 4.2%.
Big bank earnings offered little to alter the dimming views on the sector mired in the longest losing streak since the financial crisis. The bright spot: equities trading.
We agree that the economy has appeared remarkably resilient at the aggregate level, and that modest further rate increases may not put overall growth at risk. But the more important question for portfolios is not the level of inflation; it is its sensitivity to rates.
Panic is never a good investment strategy—nor is greed. Here's how disciplined investing helps navigate through volatile environments.
Central banks are tightening, and stocks are still within reach of their highs. The Fed hiked on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% this month, its highest level since 2002. Even so, the S&P 500 sits within roughly 2.5% of its record, and Japanese equities recently set fresh all-time highs.
In light of accelerating global fragmentation and geopolitical conflict, many governments and businesses are investing in resilience. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of AI, a technology that can expand the frontier of what is possible. As a result, technology security is becoming a pillar of national economic security strategy.
Q3 was a period of transition in the bond market thanks to Federal Reserve changes, a surge of AI-driven debt issuance, and rising interest rates.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 1.3% in September, better than expectations.
Nominal retail sales were up 0.8% month-over-month and up 6.3% year-over-year in September. After adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.1% month-over-month and up 2.5% year-over-year.
U.S. headline retail sales grew 0.8% in September to $745.0 billion, while core retail sales increased by 0.9% to $605.2 billion.
As AI in wealth management becomes more prevalent, recent research from Vanguard suggests that technology may actually increase investors’ appreciation for human expertise.
BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Fidelity Investments had representation at the recent Nasdaq VettaFi Asset Allocation summit.
In a recent webcast, Ari Polychronopoulos, TMX VettaFi’s head of RAFI Indices™, and Brent Leadbetter, TMX VettaFi’s head of RAFI Distribution, discussed growing market concentration risk.
Last week, the NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI) crossed $15 billion in assets under management. This major milestone was the result of investor demand. In the first nine months of 2026, the tax-efficient options-based ETF had $7.0 billion in net inflows. With the help of the $13 billion NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI), NEOS has firmly established itself as a premier manager for enhanced income ETFs.
As chip stocks shed $1 trillion in market value, ETF investors are pouring billions into the selloff, putting a fund that triples their daily exposure to the sector on pace for record weekly inflows.
We are often asked to predict interest rates, typically because investors hope to invest at the most opportune moment. The motivation is understandable, but the ability to consistently identify that moment is questionable. Voluminous economic data, geopolitical events, shifting monetary policies, and ever-changing economic conditions make forecasting interest rates an unrealistic exercise.
Inflation, geopolitical fragmentation and concentrated, AI-driven markets have put a premium on investors’ ability to navigate directional moves across asset classes. We think systematic trend-following strategies can help chart a course. But how they’re designed matters.
Many investors underestimate the AI exposure already embedded in diversified portfolios. Michael McNurney explains how to evaluate AI enablers, creators and beneficiaries while balancing long-term opportunity against short-term valuation and concentration risks.
While redemption pressure in nonlisted BDCs (funds that invest in small and midsize private U.S. businesses) has eased from its peak, it remains materially above the industry standard 5% quarterly redemption threshold. As a result, capital continues to leave the asset class, forcing managers to look to preserve liquidity, moderate deployment, and, at the margin, tighten financing conditions.
One of the hallmarks for the U.S. economy over the last few years has been its resiliency. This calendar year has been no exception as the war in the Middle East led many a market prognosticator to pencil in the potential for a recession stemming from the effects of the Middle East war.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose 3.7% year-over-year in September, climbing from August's print of 3.4%. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was also higher than economist estimates of 3.6%.
Every time I clean out my wardrobe, I find items I have not worn in years but cannot quite bring myself to give away. Maybe they will come back into fashion. Maybe they’ll fit again one day. Or maybe getting rid of them simply feels harder than buying them did.
Stocks enjoyed a profitable week in the lead-up to third quarter earnings season. The tech-heavy NASDAQ started the week strong, ending Monday at a record high.
Global income strategies offer a compelling value proposition for investors: a steady stream of income generated from dividend-paying equities, government bonds and structured instruments like equity-linked notes (ELNs) from around the world.
Global equity markets finished the third quarter only modestly higher, but the path beneath the surface was anything but calm. The AI and momentum trade that powered markets in the first half unwound sharply in July, leadership broadened through August as capital returned to areas that had been left behind, and the market narrowed again in September.
While the current bull market celebrates its fourth birthday next week, the average bull market lasts about five and a half years. Yet there has been nothing average about this one.
Bank lending rarely commands the attention that payrolls, inflation or consumer spending do. But it helps determine how much momentum the economy can sustain. The Role of C&I Loans: Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, the workhorse of corporate finance, pay for everything from working capital to machinery and software.
Small-capitalization stocks may now provide greater diversification and less valuation risk than many of the market’s largest blue-chip companies. Moreover, it appears to us that this is just the beginning stages of a change in leadership, and it is possible small-capitalization stocks could outperform large stocks for the next few years.
CLOs simply offer strong yield potential that often outpaces corporate bonds with similar credit ratings. Given that the ‘income’ portion of fixed income is often a key priority for investors, attaining high yield on a consistent basis gives CLOs a compelling use case.
The outlook for government policy, bond markets, and monetary policy appears less settled than it has been for much of the post-COVID period. The debate about public debt, the functioning of the Treasury market, inflation persistence, and the future path of interest rates has intensified. Global bond yields have been soaring.
With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades.
Our Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Sustainable Investing, Kris Nelson, sees markets balancing several competing forces this week, from renewed oil-price volatility to softer labor data and increasingly demanding expectations around AI earnings.
Taylor Topousis and Christian Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Higher interest rates are dominating the news of late, raising more questions than answers. Why are they moving up? Can they be tamed? And in the credit world, the question has arisen: as rates rise, are we at risk of loans underperforming?
As Election Day approaches, investors may be asking what the upcoming midterm elections could mean for policy and markets. While there may be potential shifts in control, the policy impact is likely to be limited. Meanwhile, political rhetoric tends to heat up as elections draw closer, which could lead to an uptick in market volatility.
Strong corporate earnings will be pivotal to hopes for a year-end rally in global stocks, as flare-ups in fears over inflation, bond volatility and artificial intelligence spending weigh on sentiment.
Global investing is changing. Geopolitical tensions, shifting trade relationships, energy costs and divergent central-bank policies are increasingly influencing which companies and markets are best positioned to navigate the environment.
The Fed's recent rate increase may not develop into a hiking cycle as extensive as the one that began in 2022 because much of today's inflation pressure comes from supply constraints rather than broad economic overheating, where demand exceeds the economy's productive capacity.
While a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.
US Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield rising roughly 45 basis points over the past month to about 5.25%. That has understandably revived concerns about what higher bond yields could mean for equities.
The S&P 500 hit a new record high in 3Q as strong earnings offset headwinds from oil returning to $100/bbl, the Fed hiking rates, and the 10-year Treasury crossing 5%.
SpaceX investors are finally getting some reprieve after months of being whipsawed by volatility as the Elon Musk-led company’s stock breaks above the level it’s been stuck below since July.
Emerging markets (EMs) have historically been associated with commodity exports and low-cost manufacturing. Those characteristics remain relevant in parts of the investable universe, but the sources of competitive advantage have broadened materially.
With markets around the globe rattled by the bond sell-off, it may be time to pivot towards safe havens that still generate strong yield.
Active ETF flows offer a window into where the ETF ecosystem is going, and what its shifts and changes might mean for broader ETF innovation.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are expected to unveil a quarterly stock-trading haul of nearly $19 billion when the firms report earnings next week.
The bull market in US stocks is showing few signs of stress as it approaches its fourth anniversary: Corporate profits are rock-solid, the S&P 500 Index is near a record and volatility appears subdued.
Advisors choosing between two similar ETFs often let the lower expense ratio decide, but that fee says little about a fund’s liquidity. It may not even point to the cheaper fund to own, according to State Street Investment Management research.
In 1954, golfer Tommy Bolt won the inaugural Rubber City Open at Firestone Country Club in Akron. Four years later, he returned to Akron as the reigning US Open champion, where in the third round he was paired with an 18-year-old amateur making his tour debut.
The U.S. economy is handing investors a muddled picture. Housing is stuck, hiring is lopsided, and households feel worse than the jobs data suggest. Add a string of geopolitical shocks and a Federal Reserve (Fed) under new leadership still establishing its reaction function, and the signals markets rely on are harder to read. Investors will have to adjust to this market, where clarity is scarce.
Investment performance is often measured by what a portfolio earns. But for investors with substantial assets across taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts, what they keep after taxes can be just as important.
ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.
For decades, investors have used growth and value allocations as a foundational block of equity portfolio construction. The distinction has been intuitive and practical. Investors expected growth to provide exposure to faster-growing companies, often with higher valuation multiples and greater sensitivity to earnings expectations.
There are many reasons to own bonds, but for many investors, one of the most important is principal preservation. Years of saving, investing, and market growth may help build wealth. Bonds can then play a different role, helping preserve that wealth while providing a predictable stream of income and cash flow.
U.S. equities ended the week with mixed results. The S&P 500 declined less than one per cent to 7,722, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined more than one per cent to 51,177. The tech-heavy NASDAQ rose a half per cent, owing to the stability of the AI trade.
As globalization recedes, governments and businesses have stronger incentives to invest in building more resilient societies and supply chains. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of artificial intelligence, creating a powerful interaction between technological innovation and economic security.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In September, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%
Inflation progress remains uneven: The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index showed some improvement after revisions, but several measures suggest price pressures remain sticky and above the Federal Reserve’s target
Long before modern scanners and monitors became common, doctors often checked a patient's health with something as simple as a finger on the wrist. A pulse could reveal a surprising amount about a person's condition. Economists have their own version of this practice. Rather than relying solely on complex statistical models, they often look for signals that offer a quick health check.
In this month’s issue, AI, energy and robotics are creating new opportunities in emerging markets, but selectivity remains key as policy, cost and execution risks evolve.
Industrials are supported by increased capital spending in electricity capacity, construction around the artificial intelligence-related (AI) infrastructure buildout, defense, and energy, although higher costs and possible delays in data center construction could temper growth.
Rather than dive straight into a technology investment, a firm should start by clearly defining what it is trying to accomplish, then determine how people, processes, data, and technology can best work together to achieve that outcome.
We understand that you can’t forecast the sequence of returns, but we CAN build a plan that survives a bad one. As Howard Marks puts it, you can’t predict, but you can prepare. These are the rules of engagement once you’ve crossed from saving into spending.
Societal angst about AI continues to grow. Whether it’s concern about misalignment or potentially misdirected investment, the AI-may-be-bad narrative is gaining traction. In stark contrast, the AI trade in financial markets was alive and well in September of 2026.
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
Long viewed as an emergency brake for macroeconomic panic, gold is starting to prove itself as much more than a crisis asset.
Global equities advanced in the third quarter as market returns broadened away from technology. But AI’s disruptive impact is spreading across sectors and industries—transforming the very nature of investment diversification.
September’s fixed income sell-off marked a watershed moment for muni bond markets, delivering the steepest drawdown since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. As benchmark yields spiked, prices across muni ETFs fell in tandem, and the volatility has not let up. This week, both 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since 2002.
The bond market took center stage through September with inflation, oil supply chains and the Federal Reserve performing as an ensemble.
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” wrote William Shakespeare, who was one of history’s greatest authors but obviously ill-versed in economics. Without lending or borrowing, our modern economic society wouldn’t grow very much, AI or not.
Recent bond market repricing has pushed municipal yields to levels not seen in decades and improved the potential risk-reward profile for fixed income. Here, we examine why municipals stand out, how supportive credit fundamentals shape the opportunity and why investors may benefit from extending maturities to lock in attractive tax-exempt income.
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.
Investors who have owned securities for many years can accumulate significant unrealized gains. Selling those investments to reposition a portfolio can trigger capital gains taxes.
Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
Softer U.S. inflation and labor data as well as more cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials shifted the rates outlook this week.
Municipal bond asset managers are finding opportunities in the rout that tore through markets this month, with cheaper valuations and the highest yields in years drawing investors.
Buffer ETFs
Yield 3.0 – How Autocallable ETFs Are Rewriting the Derivative Income Playbook
With the Fed resuming rate hikes, inflation remaining above target, and market volatility returning as a persistent feature of the investment landscape, advisors are increasingly turning to income not tied to duration or credit risk.
Rethinking the Traditional 60/40 with Buffer ETFs
In this webcast, we’ll explore how Buffer ETFs can complement traditional fixed-income allocations and help strengthen the defensive side of a portfolio.
Hot Inflation. Cold Chips. Stay Diversified.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
BlackRock, WisdomTree, Fidelity Leaders Talk Fixed Income ETFs
The Nasdaq-VettaFi Asset Allocation Summit this week included insights from leaders at key asset managers discussing the major decisions that advisors are facing. With costs rising and many investors at or near retirement, fixed income and income ETFs, specifically, took up a big part of the conversation. Leaders from BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Fidelity Investments all shared their views on both the fixed income outlook and the use cases for fixed income ETFs right now.
AI Capex And Earnings: What Happens When Growth Slows
Almost half of the S&P 500’s earnings growth this year traces back to one activity: companies buying chips, servers, power gear, and concrete to build artificial intelligence. That’s the estimate Goldman Sachs published on September 23. It’s also the clearest statement yet of how tightly AI capex and earnings are now linked.
Five Key Questions for Third-Quarter Earnings Season
Third-quarter earnings season kicked off this week and expectations are high. Despite the headwinds of higher oil prices and interest rates, economic growth has remained resilient, while the AI investment boom continues to gain momentum. As a result, the S&P 500 is expected to deliver 29% year-over-year earnings growth, marking a third consecutive quarter of 25%+ gains.
4 Stocks to Watch This Earnings Season Beyond Big Tech and AI
Plenty of story-stocks and recent alpha generators are outside AI glamor companies. Absolute and relative strength have ticked up in real-economy sectors that were beaten up as investor dollars flowed to tech. Macro conditions, such as ebbing Treasury rates and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, are wildcards. Still, traders and portfolio managers should listen up for commentary in perhaps unusual places this earnings season.
Q4 Equity Outlook: Innovation and the Next Growth Cycle
We believe the combination of AI, robotics, space technology, and quantum computing will be primary drivers of future economic growth.
Record $205 Billion Inflows, iShares Momentum Define BlackRock’s Q3 Results
The third quarter of 2026 emphasized an increasingly divided macro regime for financial advisors and institutional allocators alike. On one end, broad market hopefulness drove steady capital deployment into broad-market beta, while on the other end, raised rate volatility and geopolitical tension forced strategic pivots across fixed income, real assets, and systematic strategies, according to BlackRock’s Q3 earnings call, released October 14.
A New Industrial Revolution?
Over the last decade, a series of policy decisions in DC support the reindustrialization of the United States. Key policy movers include investments in infrastructure, tax policy that allows significant tax benefits for corporate capital expenditures (capex) and domestic research and development, the CHIPS & Science Act and tariff policies, especially the sector-specific 232 tariffs.
Q3 2026 Investment & Market Update
In this commentary, we look at three themes shaping our thinking: a shift in who is leading the market, the return of income as a meaningful source of return, and an economy that, in our view, is growing steadily rather than heading toward either extreme.
Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2026
As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but increasingly differentiated. Economic growth and corporate earnings have remained resilient, while continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other productivity-enhancing technologies has supported capital spending and market sentiment.
Under the Hood: Strong Demand, Higher Real Rates, and What It Means for Portfolios
In more normal periods like today, hiring broadly matches the labor force growth, and unemployment holds steady. Labor force growth has slowed to about 0.5% a year, so payroll gains have slowed too. Payrolls rose only 29,000 in September and averaged about 45,000 a month over the past year, yet unemployment is still a low 4.2%.
Equity Trading Gives Banks a Bright Spot This Earnings Season
Big bank earnings offered little to alter the dimming views on the sector mired in the longest losing streak since the financial crisis. The bright spot: equities trading.
The Edge Comes from Asking Better Questions
We agree that the economy has appeared remarkably resilient at the aggregate level, and that modest further rate increases may not put overall growth at risk. But the more important question for portfolios is not the level of inflation; it is its sensitivity to rates.
Panic Is Not a Strategy—Nor Is Greed
Panic is never a good investment strategy—nor is greed. Here's how disciplined investing helps navigate through volatile environments.
Equities: On Hikes and Highs
Central banks are tightening, and stocks are still within reach of their highs. The Fed hiked on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% this month, its highest level since 2002. Even so, the S&P 500 sits within roughly 2.5% of its record, and Japanese equities recently set fresh all-time highs.
The AI Investment Boom Goes Beyond America
In light of accelerating global fragmentation and geopolitical conflict, many governments and businesses are investing in resilience. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of AI, a technology that can expand the frontier of what is possible. As a result, technology security is becoming a pillar of national economic security strategy.
Q3 Strategic Income Outlook: The Times They are a Changin’
Q3 was a period of transition in the bond market thanks to Federal Reserve changes, a surge of AI-driven debt issuance, and rising interest rates.
Producer Price Index: Up 1.3% in September, Better Than Expected
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 1.3% in September, better than expectations.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales were up 0.8% month-over-month and up 6.3% year-over-year in September. After adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.1% month-over-month and up 2.5% year-over-year.
September Retail Sales Better Than Expectations
U.S. headline retail sales grew 0.8% in September to $745.0 billion, while core retail sales increased by 0.9% to $605.2 billion.
How AI Could Increase the Value of Human Financial Advice
As AI in wealth management becomes more prevalent, recent research from Vanguard suggests that technology may actually increase investors’ appreciation for human expertise.
BlackRock, WisdomTree, Fidelity Leaders Talk Fixed Income ETFs
BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Fidelity Investments had representation at the recent Nasdaq VettaFi Asset Allocation summit.
Combining Growth Optimism With Fundamental Discipline
In a recent webcast, Ari Polychronopoulos, TMX VettaFi’s head of RAFI Indices™, and Brent Leadbetter, TMX VettaFi’s head of RAFI Distribution, discussed growing market concentration risk.
QQQI Hits $15 Billion Mark Aided by Tax-Efficient Approach
Last week, the NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI) crossed $15 billion in assets under management. This major milestone was the result of investor demand. In the first nine months of 2026, the tax-efficient options-based ETF had $7.0 billion in net inflows. With the help of the $13 billion NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI), NEOS has firmly established itself as a premier manager for enhanced income ETFs.
A $1 Trillion Chip Rout Draws Billions Into Leveraged ETF Bets
As chip stocks shed $1 trillion in market value, ETF investors are pouring billions into the selloff, putting a fund that triples their daily exposure to the sector on pace for record weekly inflows.
Yields are Soaring – Elevating Investor Opportunities
We are often asked to predict interest rates, typically because investors hope to invest at the most opportune moment. The motivation is understandable, but the ability to consistently identify that moment is questionable. Voluminous economic data, geopolitical events, shifting monetary policies, and ever-changing economic conditions make forecasting interest rates an unrealistic exercise.
Rethinking Trend Investing: Alternative Signals, Not Alternative Markets
Inflation, geopolitical fragmentation and concentrated, AI-driven markets have put a premium on investors’ ability to navigate directional moves across asset classes. We think systematic trend-following strategies can help chart a course. But how they’re designed matters.
You May Already Have More AI Exposure Than You Realize
Many investors underestimate the AI exposure already embedded in diversified portfolios. Michael McNurney explains how to evaluate AI enablers, creators and beneficiaries while balancing long-term opportunity against short-term valuation and concentration risks.
Green Shoots and Legacy Risks in Direct Lending
While redemption pressure in nonlisted BDCs (funds that invest in small and midsize private U.S. businesses) has eased from its peak, it remains materially above the industry standard 5% quarterly redemption threshold. As a result, capital continues to leave the asset class, forcing managers to look to preserve liquidity, moderate deployment, and, at the margin, tighten financing conditions.
Investing in a 5% World
One of the hallmarks for the U.S. economy over the last few years has been its resiliency. This calendar year has been no exception as the war in the Middle East led many a market prognosticator to pencil in the potential for a recession stemming from the effects of the Middle East war.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: September 2026
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation at 3.7% in September
Inflation rose 3.7% year-over-year in September, climbing from August's print of 3.4%. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was also higher than economist estimates of 3.6%.
Central Banks Shrink Their Footprints
Every time I clean out my wardrobe, I find items I have not worn in years but cannot quite bring myself to give away. Maybe they will come back into fashion. Maybe they’ll fit again one day. Or maybe getting rid of them simply feels harder than buying them did.
Tech Stocks Carry NASDAQ to Record High
Stocks enjoyed a profitable week in the lead-up to third quarter earnings season. The tech-heavy NASDAQ started the week strong, ending Monday at a record high.
The Case for Global Income
Global income strategies offer a compelling value proposition for investors: a steady stream of income generated from dividend-paying equities, government bonds and structured instruments like equity-linked notes (ELNs) from around the world.
Q3 2026 Baird Chautauqua International and Global Growth Fund Commentary
Global equity markets finished the third quarter only modestly higher, but the path beneath the surface was anything but calm. The AI and momentum trade that powered markets in the first half unwound sharply in July, leadership broadened through August as capital returned to areas that had been left behind, and the market narrowed again in September.
S&P 500 Bull Market: Drivers, History and Outlook
While the current bull market celebrates its fourth birthday next week, the average bull market lasts about five and a half years. Yet there has been nothing average about this one.
Credit Is Still Flowing, and Businesses Are Borrowing
Bank lending rarely commands the attention that payrolls, inflation or consumer spending do. But it helps determine how much momentum the economy can sustain. The Role of C&I Loans: Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, the workhorse of corporate finance, pay for everything from working capital to machinery and software.
Buy Small-Capitalization Stocks for Safety, Outperformance in the Coming Years
Small-capitalization stocks may now provide greater diversification and less valuation risk than many of the market’s largest blue-chip companies. Moreover, it appears to us that this is just the beginning stages of a change in leadership, and it is possible small-capitalization stocks could outperform large stocks for the next few years.
Tackle CLO Momentum With Actively Managed ETF Exposure
CLOs simply offer strong yield potential that often outpaces corporate bonds with similar credit ratings. Given that the ‘income’ portion of fixed income is often a key priority for investors, attaining high yield on a consistent basis gives CLOs a compelling use case.
What Happens When Central Banks Get Busy?
The outlook for government policy, bond markets, and monetary policy appears less settled than it has been for much of the post-COVID period. The debate about public debt, the functioning of the Treasury market, inflation persistence, and the future path of interest rates has intensified. Global bond yields have been soaring.
Bonds At 5%: Is The 10-Year Treasury Finally A Buy?
With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades.
Investors Need Convincing Despite Cooling Jobs and Strong AI Earnings
Our Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Sustainable Investing, Kris Nelson, sees markets balancing several competing forces this week, from renewed oil-price volatility to softer labor data and increasingly demanding expectations around AI earnings.
The Bar Is High—Can Earnings Clear It Again?
Taylor Topousis and Christian Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Will Higher Rates Increase Defaults?
Higher interest rates are dominating the news of late, raising more questions than answers. Why are they moving up? Can they be tamed? And in the credit world, the question has arisen: as rates rise, are we at risk of loans underperforming?
Midterm Elections: Potential Political Shifts and Market Volatility
As Election Day approaches, investors may be asking what the upcoming midterm elections could mean for policy and markets. While there may be potential shifts in control, the policy impact is likely to be limited. Meanwhile, political rhetoric tends to heat up as elections draw closer, which could lead to an uptick in market volatility.
Stumbling Equity Rally Hinges on Earnings for Year-End Boost
Strong corporate earnings will be pivotal to hopes for a year-end rally in global stocks, as flare-ups in fears over inflation, bond volatility and artificial intelligence spending weigh on sentiment.
Opportunities Go Global
Global investing is changing. Geopolitical tensions, shifting trade relationships, energy costs and divergent central-bank policies are increasingly influencing which companies and markets are best positioned to navigate the environment.
Fed Rate Hikes: Stocks, Bonds & the Economy
The Fed's recent rate increase may not develop into a hiking cycle as extensive as the one that began in 2022 because much of today's inflation pressure comes from supply constraints rather than broad economic overheating, where demand exceeds the economy's productive capacity.
Positive ETF Gold Flows Pushed Holdings to a New Record in September
While a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.
Bond Market Blues—Real or Inflationary?
US Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield rising roughly 45 basis points over the past month to about 5.25%. That has understandably revived concerns about what higher bond yields could mean for equities.
Q3 2026 Market Recap & Q4 Outlook: Rates, Oil and the Midterms
The S&P 500 hit a new record high in 3Q as strong earnings offset headwinds from oil returning to $100/bbl, the Fed hiking rates, and the 10-year Treasury crossing 5%.
SpaceX’s $750 Billion Rally Breaks Stock Out of Post-IPO Funk
SpaceX investors are finally getting some reprieve after months of being whipsawed by volatility as the Elon Musk-led company’s stock breaks above the level it’s been stuck below since July.
From Scale to Innovation
Emerging markets (EMs) have historically been associated with commodity exports and low-cost manufacturing. Those characteristics remain relevant in parts of the investable universe, but the sources of competitive advantage have broadened materially.
2 Fixed Income Solutions for Navigating Bond Instability
With markets around the globe rattled by the bond sell-off, it may be time to pivot towards safe havens that still generate strong yield.
The Numbers Are In: Active ETF Innovation Pulling Big Flows
Active ETF flows offer a window into where the ETF ecosystem is going, and what its shifts and changes might mean for broader ETF innovation.
Goldman Set to Lead Wall Street’s $19 Billion Stock-Trading Haul
Wall Street’s biggest banks are expected to unveil a quarterly stock-trading haul of nearly $19 billion when the firms report earnings next week.
AI Powered Bull Market in S&P, Now It Needs More Building Blocks
The bull market in US stocks is showing few signs of stress as it approaches its fourth anniversary: Corporate profits are rock-solid, the S&P 500 Index is near a record and volatility appears subdued.
3 ETF Liquidity Myths That Can Raise Client Costs
Advisors choosing between two similar ETFs often let the lower expense ratio decide, but that fee says little about a fund’s liquidity. It may not even point to the cheaper fund to own, according to State Street Investment Management research.
Bond Sell-Off
In 1954, golfer Tommy Bolt won the inaugural Rubber City Open at Firestone Country Club in Akron. Four years later, he returned to Akron as the reigning US Open champion, where in the third round he was paired with an 18-year-old amateur making his tour debut.
Gloom in the Living Room
The U.S. economy is handing investors a muddled picture. Housing is stuck, hiring is lopsided, and households feel worse than the jobs data suggest. Add a string of geopolitical shocks and a Federal Reserve (Fed) under new leadership still establishing its reaction function, and the signals markets rely on are harder to read. Investors will have to adjust to this market, where clarity is scarce.
Strategies for a More Tax-Smart Portfolio
Investment performance is often measured by what a portfolio earns. But for investors with substantial assets across taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts, what they keep after taxes can be just as important.
Love at First Hike? It Could Be
ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.
AI is Taking Over the Value Style Too
For decades, investors have used growth and value allocations as a foundational block of equity portfolio construction. The distinction has been intuitive and practical. Investors expected growth to provide exposure to faster-growing companies, often with higher valuation multiples and greater sensitivity to earnings expectations.
Remember Why You Buy Bonds
There are many reasons to own bonds, but for many investors, one of the most important is principal preservation. Years of saving, investing, and market growth may help build wealth. Bonds can then play a different role, helping preserve that wealth while providing a predictable stream of income and cash flow.
Can AI Strength Continue to Offset Deteriorating Market Breadth?
U.S. equities ended the week with mixed results. The S&P 500 declined less than one per cent to 7,722, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined more than one per cent to 51,177. The tech-heavy NASDAQ rose a half per cent, owing to the stability of the AI trade.
Growth Holds, Risks Widen
As globalization recedes, governments and businesses have stronger incentives to invest in building more resilient societies and supply chains. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of artificial intelligence, creating a powerful interaction between technological innovation and economic security.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In September, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%
Markets Navigate Uncertainty as Inflation and Rates Remain in Focus
Inflation progress remains uneven: The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index showed some improvement after revisions, but several measures suggest price pressures remain sticky and above the Federal Reserve’s target
A Metal in High Demand
Long before modern scanners and monitors became common, doctors often checked a patient's health with something as simple as a finger on the wrist. A pulse could reveal a surprising amount about a person's condition. Economists have their own version of this practice. Rather than relying solely on complex statistical models, they often look for signals that offer a quick health check.
AI, Energy and Robotics
In this month’s issue, AI, energy and robotics are creating new opportunities in emerging markets, but selectivity remains key as policy, cost and execution risks evolve.
Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Industrials are supported by increased capital spending in electricity capacity, construction around the artificial intelligence-related (AI) infrastructure buildout, defense, and energy, although higher costs and possible delays in data center construction could temper growth.
Rethinking the Trust Operating Model With AI in Mind
Rather than dive straight into a technology investment, a firm should start by clearly defining what it is trying to accomplish, then determine how people, processes, data, and technology can best work together to achieve that outcome.
Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements
We understand that you can’t forecast the sequence of returns, but we CAN build a plan that survives a bad one. As Howard Marks puts it, you can’t predict, but you can prepare. These are the rules of engagement once you’ve crossed from saving into spending.
QuantStreet October 2026 Letter: Interest Rate Worries
Societal angst about AI continues to grow. Whether it’s concern about misalignment or potentially misdirected investment, the AI-may-be-bad narrative is gaining traction. In stark contrast, the AI trade in financial markets was alive and well in September of 2026.
Will the Real Yield Please Stand Up?!
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
The Case for Gold as an ‘All-Weather’ Investment
Long viewed as an emergency brake for macroeconomic panic, gold is starting to prove itself as much more than a crisis asset.
AI, Higher Rates Raise the Bar for Diversification
Global equities advanced in the third quarter as market returns broadened away from technology. But AI’s disruptive impact is spreading across sectors and industries—transforming the very nature of investment diversification.
Muni Bond ETFs: Unlocking Robust Returns
September’s fixed income sell-off marked a watershed moment for muni bond markets, delivering the steepest drawdown since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. As benchmark yields spiked, prices across muni ETFs fell in tandem, and the volatility has not let up. This week, both 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since 2002.
September Review: Bond Market in Focus as Treasury Yields Climb
The bond market took center stage through September with inflation, oil supply chains and the Federal Reserve performing as an ensemble.
Don’t Own Bonds and be Cautious With Stocks
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” wrote William Shakespeare, who was one of history’s greatest authors but obviously ill-versed in economics. Without lending or borrowing, our modern economic society wouldn’t grow very much, AI or not.
A Historic Opportunity in Municipals
Recent bond market repricing has pushed municipal yields to levels not seen in decades and improved the potential risk-reward profile for fixed income. Here, we examine why municipals stand out, how supportive credit fundamentals shape the opportunity and why investors may benefit from extending maturities to lock in attractive tax-exempt income.
Recalibrating Rates, Not Tightening Policy
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.
What Is a 351 Exchange? How Section 351 Exchanges Work and Their Potential Benefits
Investors who have owned securities for many years can accumulate significant unrealized gains. Selling those investments to reposition a portfolio can trigger capital gains taxes.
Economic Desiderata
Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.
Why Waiting for Certainty Could Be Costly
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
The Case for a Fed Pause Strengthens
Softer U.S. inflation and labor data as well as more cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials shifted the rates outlook this week.
Muni Managers Tout Equity-Like Returns After Historic Selloff
Municipal bond asset managers are finding opportunities in the rout that tore through markets this month, with cheaper valuations and the highest yields in years drawing investors.