Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
Capital market expectations (CMEs) are a key input in the strategic asset allocation processes of asset owners of all sizes.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Traders are bracing for one of the most volatile earnings periods in stock market history.
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Over the past few months, I’ve had occasion to speak at a number of conferences concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on financial jobs.
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.
Let's take a close look at December's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
As we enter 2025, there has been a lot of conjecture about a return to the 5% threshold.
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.
Although underlying fundamentals and company financial statements can be difficult to analyze, the general public can easily discern price movements and understand the primary objective—buy low and sell high.
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
As we turn the page on 2024 and look ahead into 2025, the key question on investors' minds is: can 2024’s positive momentum in the economy and financial markets continue into 2025?
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings unexpectedly rose in November, while hiring and quits slowed. Vacancies increased to 8.098 million in November from October's upwardly revised level of 7.839 million. The latest reading was more than the expected 7.730 million vacancies and is the highest level of job openings since May.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.1, better than the forecast of 53.5. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the sixth straight month.
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
Despite a lackluster 2024 for most bonds, investors with an eye on the long-term time horizon could reap future benefits.
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.
The same themes that drove sharp 2024 returns among the Magnificent 7 stocks appear to be very much alive in the new year.
Eden Ovadia, CEO of FINNY, joined WisdomTree’s Office Hours to share actionable growth insights for advisors.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,077 for an annualized real return of 10.75%.
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.5% from that peak.
Money managers are seeing plenty of reasons to remain bullish on gold, following a stellar 2024 that saw the precious metal post its biggest annual gain since 2010.
MicroStrategy Inc. bought $101 million of Bitcoin after announcing that it would use perpetual preferred stock as well as common shares and debt to acquire more of the cryptocurrency.
Continuing last year's trend, our 2025 outlook shows fixed income benefiting from high rates, while equities face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.
Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.
The year ahead may present challenges as markets and the economy look to maintain momentum.
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
With the Q3 GDP third estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.3%, up from the previous quarter.
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
The AI market has evolved significantly in the past two years, shifting from a heavy reliance on mega-cap and semiconductor dominance to a more diverse set of beneficiaries.
Quant funds that make money surfing the momentum of markets saw a promising year slip away in 2024 when big bouts of volatility lashed everything from Japanese stocks to cocoa futures and Treasuries.
Purveyors of exchange-traded funds are finding ever more creative — and potentially riskier — ways to lure investors into the crypto craze.
Maybe you have a pile of cash to invest, but you’re terrified of putting it into a US stock market near record highs.
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
Inflation remains the steadying factor in the Fed’s hand, but the Fed's intentions for next year are not likely unanimous.
As of December 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
The market commentary will explore market predictions, the Santa Claus Rally, and the current state of the markets heading into 2025.
Investors continue to enjoy the bull market but remain somewhat nervous about valuation. Policy uncertainty is higher than usual, in part because there are so many policy changes at the same time.
It’s that time of year when Wall Street soothsayers look ahead 12 months and try to divine the path of US stocks.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The November core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in October as the benchmark national index rose for the 21st consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.6% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.1% and YoY fell to -1.5%.
Before I undertake the hard task of predicting where the crypto industry will go in 2025, let’s take a minute to recall where it has been.
While Bitcoin’s surge above $100,000 captivated the headlines in 2024, many financial firms were more focused this year on a different type of cryptocurrency whose price is never meant to rise — or fall for that matter.
On a rather quiet final Friday of the year, I used my Bloomberg Terminal to check how key government bond yields in advanced economies have changed in 2024.
We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.
Treasuries were mixed in thin trading as traders absorbed the prospect of a less aggressive path ahead for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and priced in greater risk for US long-term debt.
We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
Last week’s market volatility was not surprising for readers of these commentaries, as I anticipated a jarring adjustment to readouts from the Fed Dot Plot that suggested less rate cuts in 2025.
Recurring applications for US unemployment benefits rose to the highest in more than three years, adding to signs that it is taking longer for out-of-work people to find a job.
Today often kicks off the Santa Claus rally. Stocks rose and volatility is down sharply from recent peaks, but yields keep rising, which has hurt the non-tech part of the market.
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a notable shift in its monetary policy approach.
We expect the playbook for emerging markets to be one of volatility at the start of the year, transitioning to growth and opportunity as U.S. trade policies and China stimulus plans become clearer.
Happy Holidays! As the page for the new calendar year will soon turn, three cheers for a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year! With 2024 rapidly drawing to a close, we reflect on the year and all that’s transpired—our readers are wonderful, the economy remains in good shape, and market returns have been stellar for those who participate.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® pulled back in December. The index decreased to 104.7 this month from November's upwardly revised 112.8. This month's reading was much lower compared to the 112.9 forecasted.
People often make a distinction between “good debt” and “bad debt,” in terms of both personal finances and public spending.
As investors continue to step out of cash and potentially rebalance out of equities following their strong performance, we expect bonds to play a larger role in diversified portfolios next year.
If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general.
Index funds emerged in the early 1970s and were designed to match rather than beat the market. For decades, they were associated with the capitalization-weighted (CW) market indexes that defined their investment approach.
As we near the end of 2024, researchers, businesses, and investors have begun to question the overheated artificial intelligence sentiment.
After years in the investment world as an institutional manager, an academic researcher and lecturer, and an independent advisor to individual investors, I’ve learned that there are three main objectives we’re trying to achieve when we design client portfolios.
Wall Street expects the stock market to earn a return in 2025 that is similar to the average return over the past 100 years. Do you agree?
To Michael Saylor’s online fanbase, it’s the next step in the great normalization of crypto: Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy Inc. enters the S&P 500 next year, forcing the likes of index-tracking funds to buy his controversial company en masse. Whether they like it or not.
Buffer ETFs
Gasoline Prices: WTIC Rises to 4-Month High
Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.
Asset Allocation Interactive at 10 Years: The Good, the Not Too Bad, and the Ugly
Capital market expectations (CMEs) are a key input in the strategic asset allocation processes of asset owners of all sizes.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: December 2024
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Surges to Six-Year High
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Traders Brace for Biggest S&P Earnings-Day Reactions Ever
Traders are bracing for one of the most volatile earnings periods in stock market history.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Increased Less Than Expected in December
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Don’t Bank on Your Banking Job Outlasting AI
Over the past few months, I’ve had occasion to speak at a number of conferences concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on financial jobs.
Economic Resilience Meets “Higher for Longer” Rates
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
What We're Worrying About
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
2025 Political Outlook
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
Health Check: How Is the Global Economy Holding Up?
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
Market Predictions & ETF Ideas for a New Year
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Chasing Alpha: Top Active Equity Strategies for 2025
Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: December 2024
Let's take a close look at December's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Unemployment Claims Drop to 11-Month Low
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: December Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
Outlook 2025: Planning for Growth and Embracing Change
After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.
Five Alive: Where Is the Treasury 10-Year Yield Headed?
As we enter 2025, there has been a lot of conjecture about a return to the 5% threshold.
Climate Shocks: The Unseen Drivers of Commodity Market Fluctuations in 2023-2024
Weather has always been a key factor influencing commodity prices, even though not very obvious at first glance. Agricultural yields depend on rainfall, frost can ruin crops, and hurricanes disrupt supply chains.
2025 Economic Outlook
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
Q4 Recap: US Growth Closes the Year on Top
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
5 ETF Predictions for 2025
After hitting nearly 80% of my predictions over the first five years, the past two years are calling into question whether I’m truly the ETF Nostradamus.
Unemployment Claims Drop to 11-Month Low
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
A Necessary Tool for Income Investors… Especially Now
Since dividend investing can be boiled down to a single strategy—generating income—you might assume we don’t need a toolbox full of tools. We know that’s not true.
Treasury Bonds: Riding the Range
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
High Hopes or Hollow Hype? A 2025 Reality Check
While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.
Bonds Are Boring… and That’s a Good thing!
Although underlying fundamentals and company financial statements can be difficult to analyze, the general public can easily discern price movements and understand the primary objective—buy low and sell high.
2025 Year Ahead: Certainties for an Uncertain World
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
Notes From the Desk: The Starting Line for the US Yield Curve
Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium.
The January 25 Dashboard: Our 3 Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
Bitcoin Is Not a Nothing, But Not a Something Either
A few weeks ago, a reader emailed to challenge what he described as our “cautionary, skeptical and net negative” stance on Bitcoin.
Our 10 Investing Themes for 2025
As we turn the page on 2024 and look ahead into 2025, the key question on investors' minds is: can 2024’s positive momentum in the economy and financial markets continue into 2025?
Don’t Forget Commodity ETF Exposure in 2025
It’s important that investors remember to rebalance their commodity ETF exposure, particularly as equity ETFs had a strong year in 2024.
Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise in November
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings unexpectedly rose in November, while hiring and quits slowed. Vacancies increased to 8.098 million in November from October's upwardly revised level of 7.839 million. The latest reading was more than the expected 7.730 million vacancies and is the highest level of job openings since May.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Sixth Straight Month in December
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.1, better than the forecast of 53.5. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the sixth straight month.
Trade Balance Jumps 6.2% in November
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
It Was a Very Good Year
Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
Notes From the Desk: The Starting Line for the US Yield Curve
Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium.
Bond Investors Could Reap Rewards in the Long Term
Despite a lackluster 2024 for most bonds, investors with an eye on the long-term time horizon could reap future benefits.
Three Investment Lessons From 2024
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
Fourth Quarter 2024 Performance Commentary and Review
2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.
NVIDIA In Focus: CES This Week, J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Next Week, February Earnings
The same themes that drove sharp 2024 returns among the Magnificent 7 stocks appear to be very much alive in the new year.
How to Drive Organic Growth: Insights From FINNY
Eden Ovadia, CEO of FINNY, joined WisdomTree’s Office Hours to share actionable growth insights for advisors.
The Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,077 for an annualized real return of 10.75%.
Vehicle Sales: December 2024
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.5% from that peak.
Gold Investors Stay Bullish for 2025 on Trump Volatility
Money managers are seeing plenty of reasons to remain bullish on gold, following a stellar 2024 that saw the precious metal post its biggest annual gain since 2010.
MicroStrategy Buys Bitcoin After Adding Preferred Offering
MicroStrategy Inc. bought $101 million of Bitcoin after announcing that it would use perpetual preferred stock as well as common shares and debt to acquire more of the cryptocurrency.
Schwab's 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Expectations
Continuing last year's trend, our 2025 outlook shows fixed income benefiting from high rates, while equities face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.
Equity Outlook: Preparing for Profound Policy-Driven Change
Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.
2025 Investing Outlook
The year ahead may present challenges as markets and the economy look to maintain momentum.
Tech Investing in 2025: Emerging Trends and Market Opportunities
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: December 2024
With the Q3 GDP third estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.3%, up from the previous quarter.
How Climate Volatility Is Redefining Commodity Markets
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
AI Market Leaders: How Equity Performance Is Evolving among AI Innovators
The AI market has evolved significantly in the past two years, shifting from a heavy reliance on mega-cap and semiconductor dominance to a more diverse set of beneficiaries.
Fast-Money Quants Saw Big Year Go Bust in Wild Cross-Asset Ride
Quant funds that make money surfing the momentum of markets saw a promising year slip away in 2024 when big bouts of volatility lashed everything from Japanese stocks to cocoa futures and Treasuries.
ETF Companies Are Racing to Launch the Next ‘Hot’ Crypto Fund
Purveyors of exchange-traded funds are finding ever more creative — and potentially riskier — ways to lure investors into the crypto craze.
Don’t Fear the Froth. Stay Invested Even If Stocks Are Overvalued.
Maybe you have a pile of cash to invest, but you’re terrified of putting it into a US stock market near record highs.
Fixed-Income Outlook 2025: Fertile Ground
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
S&P 500 Records Its Second Straight Year of 20%-Plus Gains
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
Muni Bonds in a New Interest Rate Regime
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
Fed Faces Inflation. Volatility Looms.
Inflation remains the steadying factor in the Fed’s hand, but the Fed's intentions for next year are not likely unanimous.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective - December 2024
As of December 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
What Did Santa Bring to the Markets? Volatility.
The market commentary will explore market predictions, the Santa Claus Rally, and the current state of the markets heading into 2025.
10 Predictions for 2025
Investors continue to enjoy the bull market but remain somewhat nervous about valuation. Policy uncertainty is higher than usual, in part because there are so many policy changes at the same time.
Stock Bears Are Going Extinct. Time to Worry?
It’s that time of year when Wall Street soothsayers look ahead 12 months and try to divine the path of US stocks.
Two Measures of Inflation: November 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The November core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits 17th Consecutive All-Time High in October
Home prices continued to trend upwards in October as the benchmark national index rose for the 21st consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.6% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.1% and YoY fell to -1.5%.
A Crypto Optimist’s Guide for 2025
Before I undertake the hard task of predicting where the crypto industry will go in 2025, let’s take a minute to recall where it has been.
Crypto’s $205 Billion Stablecoin Market Set to Go Mainstream
While Bitcoin’s surge above $100,000 captivated the headlines in 2024, many financial firms were more focused this year on a different type of cryptocurrency whose price is never meant to rise — or fall for that matter.
Bond Vigilantes Are Putting Governments on Notice
On a rather quiet final Friday of the year, I used my Bloomberg Terminal to check how key government bond yields in advanced economies have changed in 2024.
High Hopes, Solid Grounds
We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.
Treasuries Trade Mixed, With 30-Year Yield Near 2024 Highs
Treasuries were mixed in thin trading as traders absorbed the prospect of a less aggressive path ahead for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and priced in greater risk for US long-term debt.
Reflections on 2024
We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.
The Popular Rise of Lifetime Income on Annuities
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
2025 Outlook: Moderated Returns, A Rotation Possible
Last week’s market volatility was not surprising for readers of these commentaries, as I anticipated a jarring adjustment to readouts from the Fed Dot Plot that suggested less rate cuts in 2025.
US Continuing Claims Rise to Highest in More Than Three Years
Recurring applications for US unemployment benefits rose to the highest in more than three years, adding to signs that it is taking longer for out-of-work people to find a job.
Stocks Rise in Shortened Session
Today often kicks off the Santa Claus rally. Stocks rose and volatility is down sharply from recent peaks, but yields keep rising, which has hurt the non-tech part of the market.
Decoding the Fed’s Latest Meeting: Impacts and Insights
The Federal Reserve’s recent meeting signaled a notable shift in its monetary policy approach.
Volatility and Opportunity
We expect the playbook for emerging markets to be one of volatility at the start of the year, transitioning to growth and opportunity as U.S. trade policies and China stimulus plans become clearer.
What Factors Could Help the Markets and Economy Prosper in 2025?
Happy Holidays! As the page for the new calendar year will soon turn, three cheers for a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year! With 2024 rapidly drawing to a close, we reflect on the year and all that’s transpired—our readers are wonderful, the economy remains in good shape, and market returns have been stellar for those who participate.
Consumer Confidence Pulls Back in December
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® pulled back in December. The index decreased to 104.7 this month from November's upwardly revised 112.8. This month's reading was much lower compared to the 112.9 forecasted.
Good Debt? Bad Debt? There’s No Such Thing
People often make a distinction between “good debt” and “bad debt,” in terms of both personal finances and public spending.
2025 Fixed Income Outlook: Monetary and Fiscal Crosscurrents May Create Volatility, Yet Opportunity Persists
As investors continue to step out of cash and potentially rebalance out of equities following their strong performance, we expect bonds to play a larger role in diversified portfolios next year.
BlackRock Says Bitcoin Deserves a Spot in Your Portfolio
If you happen to be a Bitcoin skeptic, you’re not alone. A recent Pew Research survey found that 63% of Americans are not confident in the reliability or safety of cryptocurrencies in general.
Capitalization-Weighted Indexes, RAFI, “Smart Beta,” and Factors (JPM Series)
Index funds emerged in the early 1970s and were designed to match rather than beat the market. For decades, they were associated with the capitalization-weighted (CW) market indexes that defined their investment approach.
Artificial Intelligence Doesn’t Appear Ready to Take Over the World Yet
As we near the end of 2024, researchers, businesses, and investors have begun to question the overheated artificial intelligence sentiment.
Improving Client Portfolios: 4 Mean-Reversion-Driven Scenarios
After years in the investment world as an institutional manager, an academic researcher and lecturer, and an independent advisor to individual investors, I’ve learned that there are three main objectives we’re trying to achieve when we design client portfolios.
Framework for Forecasting Next Year’s Stock Market Return
Wall Street expects the stock market to earn a return in 2025 that is similar to the average return over the past 100 years. Do you agree?
MicroStrategy’s Long-Shot S&P 500 Bid Stokes Wall Street Agita
To Michael Saylor’s online fanbase, it’s the next step in the great normalization of crypto: Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy Inc. enters the S&P 500 next year, forcing the likes of index-tracking funds to buy his controversial company en masse. Whether they like it or not.