Corporate Credit

When it comes to personal finance, conventional wisdom says the best way to live is debt-free. There are many important reasons why this is tried and true, but for high-net-worth individuals, lending can be an optimal way to access cash in the near term without sacrificing long-term gains on your assets.

Last December we published Riding the Wave: The Anatomy of Booms & Bubbles. In it, we argued that the AI spending boom would continue through 2026 without tipping into ‘bubble’ mania, and that the right posture was to stay overweight stocks while favoring US assets. Nine months on, we think that call has aged well.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Demand for fixed income ETFs hit a historic high-water mark in September. Investors and advisors turned to fixed income ETFs at a record-breaking pace, driving 2026 net inflows of $446 billion past all-time levels with months to spare. The massive tide of capital arrives at a critical juncture.

Is the AI infrastructure buildout one big trade in credit? So far, the market seems to think so. Spread dispersion – differences in borrowing costs among issuers – across the financing chain remains limited despite sharp differences in underlying risk. This contrasts with equities, where performance has become increasingly differentiated.

Attractive yields and resilient credit conditions are creating opportunities across fixed income, but uncertainty around inflation and interest rates makes flexibility, selectivity and disciplined risk management especially important.

Some investors are questioning how much further this year’s rally can run with the S&P 500 Index up 12.3% through the first eight months of the year. Encouragingly, history suggests that strong starts tend to persist; when the S&P 500 has gained more than 10% through August it has advanced from September through December in 25 of 28 instances, an 89% positive hit rate.

Investors can’t get enough of ultrashort bonds. Driven by concerns over high equity valuations and rate volatility as the U.S. Federal Reserve mulls over the direction of interest rates, capital preservation strategies appear to be the elixir to help ease uncertainty. As such, ultrashort bonds have been seeing greater demand as traditional safe havens fall short on yield or carry unwanted duration risk.

2026 began with 10-year Treasuries right around 4%, which many viewed as a comfortable place. The comfort came from some simple math—2 plus 2 equals 4. The long-term real yield on the 10-year Treasury was around 2% and the Fed’s inflation target is 2%.

Market volatility persisted in August as investors were again forced to reassess escalating tensions and an exchange of military strikes in the Middle East, while softer labor-market data was countered by mixed inflation readings.

With so much attention focused on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) might do at its policy meeting next week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should the Fed hike rates as the market (barely) expects.

Elevated interest rates have investors scrambling for yield, and munis have been ready to answer the call with tax-exempt income.

For much of the past decade and a half, investors saw little reason to favor bonds over equities. Yields were low and returns were muted, especially in passive strategies. Equities seemed to offer a much clearer path to long-term capital appreciation. For many investors, bonds were, at best, ballast: a dull but generally stable component of a broader portfolio. Then the experience of 2022 had investors questioning even that view, as areas of high quality fixed income generated equity-like losses that eroded much of the prior decade’s real return.

LPL Research analyzes rising U.S. debt, Treasury yields, and fiscal trends, highlighting implications for markets and investors.

Labor Day signals more than summer’s end. It marks a return of focus to the economic and market forces that will shape the remainder of the year. From resilient earnings and record AI spending to rising bond yields and the midterm elections, there is no shortage of forces shaping the market outlook.

If you’re planning on driving anywhere this Labor Day weekend, be prepared to pay the highest gas prices ever for this time of year. The national average hit $4.14 per gallon on Thursday, an approximately 30% increase from last year, according to AAA.

Bond markets around the world have trembled in the last week, as uncertainty continues to rise. A mix of geopolitical, trade, debt, and currency pressures have put immense pressure on yields. The Yen carry trade situation alone has soaked bond markets, but when combined with U.S. debt fears and Hormuz concerns, the picture has shifted.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

If you look deeply into a speculative bubble, you can already see the collapse. If you look deeply into a market collapse, you can already see the bull market. The road up and the road down are the very same road. Even so, aside from knowing that our investment position presently requires a safety net regardless of shorter-term conditions – we have utterly no opinions, preferences, or scenarios about the market outlook even a month or a quarter from now.

Before I discuss why I disagree with the “AI bears,” I want to state that I respect their opinions, have evaluated their concerns, and have simply derived a different set of conclusions. That is an important statement, because this particular group of “AI bears” includes some of the sharpest risk minds in the business, and they have been early to almost every warning that later mattered.

The “K-shaped” divide endures even as it evolves. Higher-income households keep benefiting from equity gains, home price appreciation, and solid earnings, while lower-income households face mounting pressure from elevated costs and tighter credit. But recent data suggest the story is becoming more nuanced.

What if you could capture the potential gains of the S&P 500, but limit your losses if the market goes down? Or earn above-market income given the right stock market conditions? How about gaining some market exposure while protecting principal with FDIC insurance, up to applicable limits?

Products and services often benefit from great marketing. A catchy commercial, headline, or gimmick can attract potential customers. Sometimes marketing can be so effective that customers seek or support an average or even inferior product.

Global fixed income and equity ETF strategies posted gains and saw inflows surge in August, even amid ongoing macroeconomic turbulence and elevated long-term borrowing costs. International equities maintained their year-to-date lead over U.S. stocks throughout the month, led by notable strength in emerging markets.

Stocks have enjoyed a powerful run off the spring lows and have largely shrugged off concerns around growth, inflation, higher interest rates, the effects of artificial intelligence (AI), geopolitics, and policy uncertainty. As the calendar turns to September, however, they are entering what has historically been, from a seasonality perspective, the most challenging month of the year for equities.

The saying “May you live in interesting times” is becoming relevant in the bond market for all the wrong reasons. “Interesting” usually means “trouble.”

On Wednesday, September 2, State Street Investment Management announced the debut of the State Street SPDR UC Investments 90/10 Endowment Strategy Index ETF (UCBG). Notably, this fund was created through a collaboration between State Street and UC Investments, the investment arm of the University of California.

The month of August reminded many investors that the markets rarely move in a straight line. A combination of encouraging economic fundamentals, uncertainty in the bond market and renewed geopolitical turmoil led to increased volatility and shifting market leadership. But the underlying backdrop reinforced that the US economy continues to expand at a sustainable pace.

August was a good month in financial markets, with the S&P 500 up around 2.7%. The market leaders came from the commodity complex, with gold and bitcoin (not sure how this should be classified) being the two top performers.

Record fixed income ETF inflows in August pushed year-to-date ETF totals past $1.4 trillion, with short-term bonds leading the surge.

The high-yield market appears expensive at first glance. Spreads sit near the tight end of their historical range, which implies limited compensation for credit risk. However, spreads relative to their historical levels do not capture the full opportunity set of the asset class. Corporate fundamentals remain healthy, defaults are low, and the quality of today’s high-yield universe is higher than its long-standing reputation might suggest.

The backup in global yields since late February has reignited the debate over the potential knock-on effects for corporate borrowers, particularly through higher refinancing costs and weaker debt-servicing capacity.

A credit-allocation problem is complicating the Fed’s dual mandate, with current policy restrictive for many consumers and weaker borrowers, but less so for large corporates, higher-quality issuers, and borrowers with access to private credit.

Beneath relatively muted index-level volatility, single-stock implied volatility remains high. In today’s low-correlation environment, individual stocks are moving more independently, keeping single-name volatility high even as those moves offset at the index level.

Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.

A weaker U.S. dollar cycle is boosting the appeal of emerging market debt, creating a compelling case for investors seeking income and diversification at an opportune time for the asset class.

Treasury’s pivot toward long-bond buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.

We think it’s time for investors to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core (plus) bond portfolios. Valuations have become more attractive across fixed income, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels. We share our views on when and why.

For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.

Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department surprised the bond market by announcing that it would at least double selected long-end bond buybacks.

Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.

Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

For the past five weeks, markets have been focused on a steady stream of corporate earnings, supported by upbeat management commentary and another quarter of strong results. But with second quarter 2026 earnings season nearing its end, investors' attention is shifting back to the macro backdrop.

For years, Russell index reconstitutions have been treated as a routine maintenance event. Thousands of stocks are ranked, memberships are adjusted, and markets move on

High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.

Hedged equity as a liquid alternative uses an options-based equity strategy — specifically Swan Global Investments’ Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), in continuous operation since 1997 — as a permanent alternatives allocation that stays invested in the equity market while actively managing downside risk through LEAPS put options

U.S. equities were mostly higher last week, though gains were modest and trading was quiet. The S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, rose 0.4 per cent and closed on Thursday at a new record high.

Investor appetite for fixed income continues to expand, as evidenced by the latest weekly ETF inflows report from TD Securities. For the week ending August 14, 2026, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered $41.0 billion in total weekly net inflows, which included $13.2 billion into fixed income funds.

Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.

Global equity markets continued their strong summer run this week, supported by what has been an exceptionally strong second-quarter earnings season.

The first step in recovery is recognizing a problem. For decades, some U.S. states have had problems with indebtedness. But as we take stock of state finances today, we see many examples of recovery.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.

Whether fixed income investors are focused on locking in yield, managing duration risk, or building resilient core portfolios, bond ETFs have been seeing elevated demand this year.

In 3Q26, global fixed-income markets continue to navigate a complex backdrop as resilient growth, elevated inflation, hawkish central-bank pricing and the AI infrastructure buildout intersect. Growth remains supported by the US consumer, fiscal spending in Europe and AI-related capital investment, while inflation is expected to moderate through 2026 and into 2027.

Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.

For most high-net-worth investors, the bond sleeve of a portfolio isn't there to generate eye-popping returns or provide cocktail party fodder. Its job is much more mainstream: support a targeted lifestyle, cover tax bills, dampen equity market volatility, and provide "dry powder" when the world turns sideways.