Corporate Credit

July 2026 was a flattish month for markets. The S&P 500 index was down slightly. Value did well, while momentum did poorly. Smallcaps, midcaps, and emerging markets, all of which have been the year’s best performers, had a bad month. Commodities, driven largely by oil prices, led the pack, as the fragile ceasefire in Iran failed to hold.

July was an eventful month for both domestic and international markets, with US-Iran tensions flaring up, increasing energy prices and changing investor expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates.

Just as important, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries have continued to behave like hedges in periods of broader market unrest (driven by geopolitics or other conditions). When risk assets come under pressure, Treasury yields have generally fallen, or the dollar has tended to find support.

Advisors and investors of all kinds are used to closely watching the outcome of each of the Federal Reserve’s meetings, given how critical interest rates are to equity and fixed income markets alike. However, the recent July Fed meeting was particularly crucial. Many were uncertain what direction the central bank would go with interest rates.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

U.S. equities finished lower last week as investors weighed an escalating conflict with Iran against renewed concern over the scale of AI-related spending. The technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite was the worst performer, falling 2.1 per cent, while the S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, declined 0.6 per cent.

In the current macroeconomic landscape marked by higher-for-longer interest rates, investors looking to optimize their short-term capital allocations may want to consider collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) as a higher-yielding potential alternative to traditional cash proxies like money market funds.

Without the support of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it’s been a lethargic year in terms of performance by municipal bonds and the related ETFs, but that doesn’t mean advisors and fixed income investors should ignore this bond segment.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Discover Aberdeen’s closed-end funds (CEFs) for high yields, illiquid assets, long-term investments, and resilient income for 2026.

As markets place a greater premium on shareholder-friendly capital allocation, companies that consistently combine buybacks with dividends may be better positioned to outperform.

Oil has staged an impressive rebound this month as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has re-escalated. The memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 created a 60-day window for negotiations, but the diplomatic opening lasted only a few weeks. Both sides subsequently accused the other of violating the peace agreement, and military operations have resumed.

The ETF market saw a push in capital away from the concentrated U.S. tech sector to defensive broad market exposure, short duration bonds, and commodities. The shift in flows is amplified by the semiconductor market pullback, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In June, market news continued to be dominated by the Middle East conflict as frequent flare-ups in hostilities gave way to repeated ceasefire efforts and the signing of a high-level memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.

During periods of elevated market stress, including those that see pinched corporate bonds, collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) often outperform other corporate bond assets. Add to that, CLOs often emerge from those rough patches in strong form, delivering impressive returns a year after downturns.

From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.

Kevin Warsh’s early overhaul of Federal Reserve communication and policymaking suggests investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer rate environment with greater uncertainty around policy signals.

In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.

The relative cheapness of Treasuries versus interest rate swaps mechanically affects how corporate bond spreads are measured, but it appears to have limited influence on how corporate bond spreads actually behave.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.

The second-quarter earnings season kicked off last week with a resounding statement from Wall Street, led by stellar results across the nation's six largest banking institutions.

AI is changing the investment landscape, but fundamentals still matter, and we remain focused on quality companies with growing free cash flow.

The first half of 2026 reinforced the importance of balance, selectivity and income generation. Franklin Income Investors Chief Investment Officer Ed Perks discusses how markets have evolved, where opportunities are emerging, and why diversification remains critical heading into the second half of the year.

As the forces shaping bond markets become more local, the opportunities become more global. From energy stress to fiscal policy to advances in AI, today’s defining market forces are likely to play out differently across regions, sectors and issuers.

The good news is real. The easy trade is not. Growth has held up, artificial intelligence investment is showing up in earnings and capital spending, and fixed income is offering yields that create serious cushion for portfolios.

This paper presents the case for emerging market (EM) allocations within the broader context of global investment strategy. In a period of heightened geopolitical complexity—spanning the 2026 US-Iran conflict, challenges to globalization, political transformation and ongoing great power competition—we believe the case for engaged emerging markets exposure has never been stronger.

Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.

For decades, traditional index-based ETFs have served as the low-cost foundational anchor for core allocations, consistently demonstrating that outperforming a broad market index is an uphill battle.

What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.

The current level of stock market valuations remains – easily – the most speculative extreme in U.S. financial history, beyond both the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Our baseline estimate is that the S&P 500 has a material risk of losing something on the order of 75% over the completion of this cycle.

LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.

The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.

Fixed income investors continue to grapple with an uncertain macro environment, dominated by higher-for-longer interest rates and a new-look U.S. Federal Reserve, in which rate hikes may be forthcoming. Rather than make a directional bet on interest rates to combat duration risk, consider floating-rate ETFs, a compelling option.

The first wave of upgrades came after the AI hyperscalers reported, by and large, strong earnings. But most of the improvement has stemmed from the rest of the non-financials index, with analysts quadrupling their one-year aggregate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth expectations, from 5% at the end of January to more than 20% as of 30 June.

Given how crucial the fixed income sleeve can be to one’s portfolio, the recent concerns over inflation have caused many advisors and investors to rethink how they go about their exposure. This includes debating over active and passive funds, and reevaluating the type of bond duration that is most attractive at this moment.

Morningstar data shows most active strategies lag passive indexes, but selective active fixed income ETFs can generate alpha.

Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.

Fixed income experts James Donahue, John Lloyd and Mike Talaga revisit the levels of supply related to the AI buildout and explain why they remain cautious towards investment grade tech issuance.

Central bankers expect de-dollarization to continue over the next several years, with gold and other currencies taking on a growing role in the global monetary system, according to a survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF).

One of the bigger questions facing advisors and investors right now revolves around credit. Inflation, volatility, and Fed rate hikes all loom, potentially heightening credit risk for portfolios. Navigating that risk may be a crucial task in the second half of this year.

Over the first half of 2026, markets faced some expected — and unexpected — tailwinds and headwinds, ranging from geopolitical developments, blockbuster corporate earnings, increasing artificial intelligence (AI) scrutiny, resilient economic data, and a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair.

The first half of 2026 has provided a considerable amount of news for investors to digest. Notably, equity markets were higher by nearly 10%, oil prices spiked over 50% before retreating nearly back to where they started, there is a new Chair of the Federal Reserve in Kevin Warsh, and AI infrastructure spending surged.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Bypass the headaches of individual closed-end funds. Discover how Invesco's PCEF bundles over 100 CEFs to capture June's debt rallies.

While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the latest meeting, investors increasingly speculate that rate hikes are on the table in 2026.

Midway through 2026, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Global Investment Outlook framework remains a valuable lens—but the landscape has shifted.

The dollar holds a central place in global markets due to its role as the world’s reserve currency. Its movements influence cross-asset correlations, shape liquidity conditions, and often offer early indications of shifts in the broader macro regime. In short, it is a critical variable that warrants close attention.

Today’s market backdrop reflects a tension between expectations and reality. Despite higher oil prices and plenty of geopolitical noise, the US economy remains resilient and durable, supported by steady consumer spending, a labor market finding its footing, ongoing fiscal support and a surge in AI and infrastructure investment.

U.S.-listed ETFs locked in a record-breaking first half of the year. Read the analysis on active ETFs, fixed income shifts, and equity flows.

The second quarter wraps up today, and it was a good one. With the S&P 500 having returned more than 14% (including dividends) with just one trading day left, it will almost certainly end up being the best quarter for the index since the second quarter of 2020. Technology was the leader despite the June weakness.

June saw strong market fundamentals once again in conflict with macroeconomic uncertainties, creating a choppy market. While a durable peace plan with Iran is seemingly underway, investors have regarded the negotiations with caution, pricing in potential setbacks.

Geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and inflation each took their turn commanding market attention last week. U.S. equities were mixed, as a pullback in technology names masked broadening performance beneath the surface.

Insurance investors face a broader opportunity set than ever across public and private credit—from corporate lending to asset-based finance. But those investments come in many forms. In our view, a all-encompassing approach can better assess relative value, pivot to new avenues and align investments with portfolio, liability and regulatory considerations.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.

It’s hard to believe we’re nearing the halfway point of 2026 – and what an eventful start it’s been. Markets have pushed through a geopolitically driven energy shock, rising inflation pressures and accelerating disruption from the artificial intelligence boom.

Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?

In a world of high starting yields and rupturing economic alliances, investors who actively diversify across regions, sectors, and currencies can be better positioned to pursue durable returns.

As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.

What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.

Municipal bonds often see a seasonal lift during the summer months. This pattern, known as summer technicals, stems from a straightforward supply and demand imbalance that tends to favor bond prices. Over the past ten years, the summer months (May through July) have generally been positive months for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, with monthly returns averaging +0.83%, +0.43%, and +0.82%, respectively.

In broad terms, there appears to be little headline risk facing advisors and income investors mulling municipal bonds. All 50 states carry investment-grade credit ratings, confirming that their credit quality remains solid.

While the market-cap methodology has been the guiding principle for equity index creators, it’s increasingly viewed as a structural error in the world of fixed income. Today, TMX VettaFi is helping to spearhead a growing movement of index innovators who are inclined to challenge the fixed income status quo.