Join the experts at Northern Trust for an educational webcast that explores practical solutions for transforming retirement savings into sustainable spending.
Over seven years ago, I wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan's Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of economic growth. In this article, I present the next episode of Gilligan’s Island, describing what happens after the benefits of innovation stop driving economic growth.
Most of us keep a chunk of cash on hand — for rent, groceries, the occasional emergency, or simply because we haven’t gotten around to investing it yet. In the finance industry, this is called your “float.” We think the single best thing most people can do with it is own a Treasury Bill ETF — and yet almost nobody does.
The TDF industry is an oligopoly where four firms dominate more than 75% of the $5 trillion market. Competitors that are desperate for market share have turned to “managed” QDIA accounts — a gimmick masquerading as personalization.
The appeal of democratic socialism is real because the pain it speaks to is real. I won’t pretend otherwise. But intentions are not outcomes, and history has handed us the outcomes in ink, from Caracas to the old Soviet bloc to the Nordic countries that quietly kept their capitalism. The promise is a beautiful cake. The aftertaste is shortages, capital flight, inflation, and a new elite standing where the old one used to be.
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.
Bond investors at firms including ABN AMRO Investment Solutions and Brandywine Global Investment Management are voicing skepticism about mounting speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is poised to raise interest rates.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and widely known as “Mr. Valuation,” examines 15 dividend-paying companies selected for their potential to generate rapidly growing income. These are not simply the fastest dividend growers in the market. Each company was also chosen for its financial strength, operating history, and current valuation.
The term “backfire” originally referred to the intentional burning of underbrush when there is a wildfire on the horizon, to keep a bad situation from turning worse. Over time, however, backfire has come to mean an action that makes a bad situation worse.
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
Convertible bond investors chasing exposure to the artificial intelligence boom are giving up some of the protection they would normally demand, pushing the market toward levels of risk-taking last seen during the pandemic.
A chorus of investors is urging Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to express a strong determination to deal with high inflation to boost the long end of the Treasury market.
Funding a college education can be one of the biggest financial goals for a family, and it often requires a comprehensive approach.
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.
Investors who focus only on tomorrow’s gold price may miss the larger purpose of owning precious metals. Gold and silver are not merely vehicles for chasing a rally. They are tools for preserving purchasing power during periods of fiscal and monetary instability.
On Wednesday, August 26, 2026, Northern Trust Asset Management expanded its suite of distributing ladder ETFs with the launch of eight new funds. The newly launched ETFs offer additional target maturity options for Northern Trust’s existing strategies.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department surprised the bond market by announcing that it would at least double selected long-end bond buybacks.
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
U.S. labor force participation is declining due to an aging population, slowing immigration, and other factors. This could impact economic growth and earnings moving forward.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.35% in July and was up 3.31% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.19% month-over-month and down -0.38% year-over-year.
The irony is that the advisors who most need to delegate are the ones who find it hardest. You need to stop being the hero of every story. There are four reasons why, and every one of them is a story you tell yourself.
Recent Kitces’ research found no meaningful difference in wellness between advisors who worked in a traditional office versus at home or elsewhere. What did matter was alignment: Advisors thrived when they had the flexibility to work in an environment that matched their personal preferences.
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief political advisor, once quipped that if he could be reincarnated he wanted to come back as the bond market because “You can intimidate everybody.”
We think the gap between women’s confidence and ability underscores that effective plan communications must educate, engage and empower participants across the board. Women may worry more, but they’re clearly knowledgeable and forward-thinking—qualities that can be reinforced. Men may register more confidence but could still use refreshers on financial basics.
I wrote several years ago that the only thing you can count on the stock market to do is fluctuate, and that the wisest response is usually to do nothing. Looking less often will not change your return. It will make you far less likely to damage the return you already have.
The WealthTech market has a serious AI-washing problem. The term borrows directly from a parallel wealth management executives already understand. Just as greenwashing described investment managers who marketed ESG commitments they could not substantiate, AI washing describes technology vendors who relabel rules-based automation as artificial intelligence.
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
In the first part of this series, I promised that the next enemy we would face is the one you cannot fire, mute, or unfollow, because it is “You.” You can learn every valuation metric ever invented, memorize the two questions that decide everything, and still hand most of your returns back to the market for one simple reason.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Without a doubt, the number-one story in the financial markets of late has been the run-up in longer-dated Treasury (UST) yields. Indeed, headlines in both traditional and social media have centered on the fact that bond yields are now at levels not seen in nearly 20 years, or the time period right before the Financial Crisis hit in 2007.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
The question facing advisors is no longer whether clients can hold digital assets, because many already do. It is whether the firm can explain, in writing, how each position was sized, why a particular product was chosen, and where that decision is recorded. Most firms cannot, and that gap is the exposure.
The Treasury Department could opt to draw down some of its cash pile to fund expanded buybacks of higher-yielding, older securities, CNBC reported Monday, citing two senior Treasury officials.
The debt problem is real. It just isn’t a bomb. As we’ve written before, the debt and deficit problem isn’t what you think. It’s a tax on future growth, collected slowly, and normal interest rates are simply the price of money doing its job, not the crisis the headlines keep selling.
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
To some, the debate over inflation targeting is largely an academic exercise. But its outcome will have direct consequences for the paths of global interest rates and global markets. Some background on how we arrived at this juncture, and where we might go from here, follows.
On the first few trading days of every month, America’s paychecks hit the stock market. Most 401(k) contributions now default into index-tracking funds, which buy the same stocks in the same proportions whatever the price.
In the early weeks of Kevin Warsh’s start as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, there has been renewed focus on how “underlying” inflation should be measured to guide decisions on interest rates.
The truth about the runaway costs of healthcare turns out to be a little more complex than any single source we've named. Hospitals, insurers, private equity, administrators, pharmaceutical companies… pull the thread on any one and we land in the same overextended, bloated, extractive system.
U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are among the most optimistic about European stocks on the back of a robust corporate earnings outlook, a Bloomberg survey shows.
Leading asset managers T. Rowe Price announced the acquisition of $19 billion F/m Investments in a press release Thursday afternoon. The deal brings F/m’s suite of leading fixed income strategies and ETFs into T. Rowe Price’s fund stable, reinforcing those areas in the latter’s list.
High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.
For many of the past several years, investor enthusiasm has been concentrated in a narrow group of AI-related and technology stocks. As liquidity conditions tighten and speculation begins to recede, broader market fundamentals are gaining importance.
There’s new life in the gold market, and that momentum could represent a buying opportunity for bullion-enthused investors seeking income. The NEOS Gold High Income ETF (IAUI) is ready to meet the moment.
It’s easy to make the case that the US equity market is in bubble territory. After all, the major metrics point in the same direction.
With a slew of unexpected maneuvers this year, Scott Bessent has emerged as the most interventionist Treasury secretary in financial markets in decades — putting his credibility on the line in an effort to quell a potentially damaging rise in US borrowing costs.
The 2026 midterms could reshape control of Congress, raising the odds of divided government and near-term market volatility, but investors should stay focused on long-term goals.
The nation’s affordable-housing shortage is fueling a fast-growing corner of the municipal bond market, as lenders securitize portfolios of multifamily mortgages to free up capital for new loans.
Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.
Would you consider investing in a bond that earns more than 3% after accounting for inflation? What if that security has zero chance of default? Such an opportunity exists today in U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).
I’m always asked for scripts. You don’t want a script. You want to be natural and approach clients in a manner that fits you. Practice, practice, practice until it seems natural and comfortable. Authentic is always best.
The deal follows similar moves elsewhere in the Gulf, including oil and gas pipeline transactions by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Saudi Aramco, as governments seek to bring in external capital without losing control of key assets. In these cases, investors obtained bridge financing from banks that were later refinanced by bonds.
With the US fiscal year 2027 (FY27) state budget season now largely complete, several important trends have emerged. Most states and local governments adopted their budgets without major delays or political impasses, an encouraging sign for two important credit considerations: governance and financial management.
Equity markets continued to push higher this week, with nearly all major indices in the U.S. and abroad closing near or at record highs. While longer-term interest rates continued to drift higher, shorter-term interest rates moved lower as investors pushed out both the timing and magnitude of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes.
The market continues to impress, with the S&P 500 reaching another record high despite a surprisingly weak retail sales report. I had to look twice at the numbers because the weakness was broad, including the important control group, with the previous month also revised slightly lower.
America remains the best country in the world to get rich. Some see this as cause for celebration, while others view it as evidence of a broken capitalist system. As an economist, I am less interested in debating whether billionaires (or trillionaires) should exist than in asking what the alternative is.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Blackstone Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. had been working tirelessly for months to draw up debt deals that would help developers of artificial intelligence systems pay for chips from Nvidia Corp.
If the bad news is that members of Generation Z can’t afford to buy a house until they are middle-aged — which isn’t really bad news, honestly, but anyway — then the good news is that at least they are investing their money in high-performing assets.
“Think Like An Investor” is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run. Learning to think like an investor rather than a speculator is not a personality quirk or a matter of taste. It is the entire game, and the good news is that it is a skill you can actually build, starting today.
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.
For over two decades, US equities have been the global market leader, outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600 by an astonishing approximately 530%. While Europe’s recent comeback has narrowed the gap, the forces underpinning US leadership remain firmly intact. Below, we revisit the case for US versus European equities and reiterate why we maintain our preference for US equities.
The first step in recovery is recognizing a problem. For decades, some U.S. states have had problems with indebtedness. But as we take stock of state finances today, we see many examples of recovery.
This bargain-hunting environment sets up a stark divide for upcoming earnings. Walmart (WMT) remains uniquely positioned as its dominant grocery business continues to draw trade-down traffic from higher-income households, whereas Target (TGT) faces headwinds due to its heavier mix of discretionary home and apparel goods.
For savers, it drives them to seek bigger and bigger returns to keep up with the government’s monetary devaluation. At first, a simple savings account with a relatively low yield will do the trick. But as the dollar loses purchasing power, you need a better return to keep up. So, maybe you stick your money in a higher-interest-yielding CD.
Hoisington Investment Management — managed by Hunt and Hoisington — sharply reduced its clients’ bond duration and put the proceeds in Treasury bills. That reversal of such long-held opinions deserves serious attention. I will summarize Hunt’s new views and some counterpoints to help you assess his new stance.
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
So let’s do the work the timeline skips, starting with separating what actually happened from what the narrative needs you to believe. Then we’ll ask the only question that pays: should any of it change how you’re positioned this morning?
We are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. This has to end, and I think it will do so in the event I’ve called The Great Reset.
Recent trends are sending confusing signals about the health of the U.S. labor market. Since late 2025, the employment/population ratio has moved lower even as the unemployment rate has declined.
Whether fixed income investors are focused on locking in yield, managing duration risk, or building resilient core portfolios, bond ETFs have been seeing elevated demand this year.
The arrival of the new academic year prompted me to revisit a piece that we wrote in 2023, which detailed the damage that the pandemic had done to young students. In the years immediately following COVID-19, achievement scores skidded, suggesting that online learning was a poor substitute for time in the classroom.
Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.
The S&P 500 towed an anchor for much of the summer as a historic momentum and leverage unwind under the surface dragged on the equity benchmark before breaking out to fresh records last week.
While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.
As we write this, long TIPS yields once again yield 3.0% and, as in 2008, these rates may not last long. That means: You snooze, you lose. The time to buy TIPS is now. In this article, we lay out the options and make recommendations.
Life rarely stands still, and for families caring for a loved one with special needs, change can introduce both emotional and financial complexity. Marriage, divorce, the loss of a parent, an unexpected inheritance, or shifts in public policy may all significantly impact eligibility for benefits, long-term financial security, and family dynamics.
The risks of a rate hike have increased lately, but we don't believe we're there just yet. If the data changes—specifically if inflation comes in hotter-than-expected over the next few months—we'll likely change our view.
All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability.
College planning begins long before college. Learn why welcoming a new child is the ideal time to build a strong financial foundation, explore education savings options and prepare for your family’s future.
An in-line inflation reading spurred gains in both stocks and bonds, easing concern about imminent Federal Reserve rate increases despite elevated oil prices.
After 10 years, we understand that not every conflict has a clean answer. Advisors value feeling heard and supported through difficult situations. Over time, we’ve learned that genuine engagement and thoughtful communication build more trust than rushing toward incomplete answers.
Clients' financial lives don't operate in separate silos, and their advisory team shouldn't either. Well-designed partnerships should clearly define responsibilities, compensation, compliance obligations, and client communication. Transparent agreements create better experiences for both clients and professionals.
We’ve all seen how AI tools can boost our productivity and efficiency but, like most things in life, the benefits must be weighed against potential risks. Here are five best practices to help guide fiduciaries and ensure they benefit from these tools without running afoul of regulations.
South Korea expects to deploy more than 1 trillion won ($707 million) of fresh capital into a new sovereign wealth fund targeting AI and other strategic industries next year, joining a global push by governments to mobilize investment and gain an edge in high-tech sectors.
The market was jolted by a much weaker-than-expected employment report, sending Treasury yields sharply lower as investors quickly reduced the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike. At first glance, the payroll number looked alarming, particularly when combined with sizable downward revisions to prior months and unexpectedly soft wage growth.
Retirement Income
A Modern Approach to Retirement Cash Flow
Join the experts at Northern Trust for an educational webcast that explores practical solutions for transforming retirement savings into sustainable spending.
Gilligan’s Island and the Limit of Economic Innovation
Over seven years ago, I wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan's Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of economic growth. In this article, I present the next episode of Gilligan’s Island, describing what happens after the benefits of innovation stop driving economic growth.
Keeping Your Float Afloat: A Guide to Earning What You Deserve on Your Cash
Most of us keep a chunk of cash on hand — for rent, groceries, the occasional emergency, or simply because we haven’t gotten around to investing it yet. In the finance industry, this is called your “float.” We think the single best thing most people can do with it is own a Treasury Bill ETF — and yet almost nobody does.
The QDIA Illusion: Why Your "Managed" Account Isn't Managed
The TDF industry is an oligopoly where four firms dominate more than 75% of the $5 trillion market. Competitors that are desperate for market share have turned to “managed” QDIA accounts — a gimmick masquerading as personalization.
Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste
The appeal of democratic socialism is real because the pain it speaks to is real. I won’t pretend otherwise. But intentions are not outcomes, and history has handed us the outcomes in ink, from Caracas to the old Soviet bloc to the Nordic countries that quietly kept their capitalism. The promise is a beautiful cake. The aftertaste is shortages, capital flight, inflation, and a new elite standing where the old one used to be.
From the US Market Desk: Now…We Wait…
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.
Bond Investors Wary After Warsh Speech Fuels Rate-Hike Bets
Bond investors at firms including ABN AMRO Investment Solutions and Brandywine Global Investment Management are voicing skepticism about mounting speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is poised to raise interest rates.
Get a Raise Every Year With These 15 Dividend Growth Stocks
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and widely known as “Mr. Valuation,” examines 15 dividend-paying companies selected for their potential to generate rapidly growing income. These are not simply the fastest dividend growers in the market. Each company was also chosen for its financial strength, operating history, and current valuation.
The Treasury Tries to Cap Interest Rates
The term “backfire” originally referred to the intentional burning of underbrush when there is a wildfire on the horizon, to keep a bad situation from turning worse. Over time, however, backfire has come to mean an action that makes a bad situation worse.
More Signs of Growth Across AI and Europe
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
Investor Frenzy for AI Strips Safeguards From Convertible Bonds
Convertible bond investors chasing exposure to the artificial intelligence boom are giving up some of the protection they would normally demand, pushing the market toward levels of risk-taking last seen during the pandemic.
JPMorgan and Apollo Urge Inflation Focus for Warsh’s Big Speech
A chorus of investors is urging Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to express a strong determination to deal with high inflation to boost the long end of the Treasury market.
High School Action Plan Part 1: Freshman and Sophomore Years
Funding a college education can be one of the biggest financial goals for a family, and it often requires a comprehensive approach.
Today’s Interest Rates: Not the New Normal, Just Normal
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.
Gold and Silver Surge as the Debasement Trade Returns
Investors who focus only on tomorrow’s gold price may miss the larger purpose of owning precious metals. Gold and silver are not merely vehicles for chasing a rally. They are tools for preserving purchasing power during periods of fiscal and monetary instability.
Northern Trust Launches New Set of Distributing Ladder ETFs
On Wednesday, August 26, 2026, Northern Trust Asset Management expanded its suite of distributing ladder ETFs with the launch of eight new funds. The newly launched ETFs offer additional target maturity options for Northern Trust’s existing strategies.
Buybacks, Market Functioning, and Treasury Predictability
Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department surprised the bond market by announcing that it would at least double selected long-end bond buybacks.
What the New Section 338 Tariffs Mean for the U.S. and Canada
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
America Has a Labor Force Participation Problem
U.S. labor force participation is declining due to an aging population, slowing immigration, and other factors. This could impact economic growth and earnings moving forward.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.35% in July and was up 3.31% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.19% month-over-month and down -0.38% year-over-year.
Delegate Outcomes, Not Tasks
The irony is that the advisors who most need to delegate are the ones who find it hardest. You need to stop being the hero of every story. There are four reasons why, and every one of them is a story you tell yourself.
Steps to Achieving Wellness as a Financial Advisor
Recent Kitces’ research found no meaningful difference in wellness between advisors who worked in a traditional office versus at home or elsewhere. What did matter was alignment: Advisors thrived when they had the flexibility to work in an environment that matched their personal preferences.
Markets Weigh Business Strength Against Consumer Weakness
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
The Blame Game About Rising Yields
James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief political advisor, once quipped that if he could be reincarnated he wanted to come back as the bond market because “You can intimidate everybody.”
How Can DC Plan Sponsors Bridge the Gender Gap in Retirement Confidence?
We think the gap between women’s confidence and ability underscores that effective plan communications must educate, engage and empower participants across the board. Women may worry more, but they’re clearly knowledgeable and forward-thinking—qualities that can be reinforced. Men may register more confidence but could still use refreshers on financial basics.
The More Often You Check Your Portfolio, The More Volatile It Seems
I wrote several years ago that the only thing you can count on the stock market to do is fluctuate, and that the wisest response is usually to do nothing. Looking less often will not change your return. It will make you far less likely to damage the return you already have.
AI Washing in WealthTech: How to Tell the Real from the Relabeled
The WealthTech market has a serious AI-washing problem. The term borrows directly from a parallel wealth management executives already understand. Just as greenwashing described investment managers who marketed ESG commitments they could not substantiate, AI washing describes technology vendors who relabel rules-based automation as artificial intelligence.
The Bond Market Is Returning to the Old Normal
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)
In the first part of this series, I promised that the next enemy we would face is the one you cannot fire, mute, or unfollow, because it is “You.” You can learn every valuation metric ever invented, memorize the two questions that decide everything, and still hand most of your returns back to the market for one simple reason.
Operation Twist
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Bessent & Warsh Go Down the Jackson Hole
Without a doubt, the number-one story in the financial markets of late has been the run-up in longer-dated Treasury (UST) yields. Indeed, headlines in both traditional and social media have centered on the fact that bond yields are now at levels not seen in nearly 20 years, or the time period right before the Financial Crisis hit in 2007.
What’s Pushing Long-Term Bond Yields Higher?
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
Your Clients Already Own Crypto. Does Your Firm Have a Policy?
The question facing advisors is no longer whether clients can hold digital assets, because many already do. It is whether the firm can explain, in writing, how each position was sized, why a particular product was chosen, and where that decision is recorded. Most firms cannot, and that gap is the exposure.
Bessent Eyes Treasury Cashpile for Debt Buybacks, CNBC Says
The Treasury Department could opt to draw down some of its cash pile to fund expanded buybacks of higher-yielding, older securities, CNBC reported Monday, citing two senior Treasury officials.
Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong
The debt problem is real. It just isn’t a bomb. As we’ve written before, the debt and deficit problem isn’t what you think. It’s a tax on future growth, collected slowly, and normal interest rates are simply the price of money doing its job, not the crisis the headlines keep selling.
A Bigger Basket Isn't Always a More Diversified One
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
Rogue AI Is a Scary But Fixable Problem
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
A Testing Time For Inflation Targeting
To some, the debate over inflation targeting is largely an academic exercise. But its outcome will have direct consequences for the paths of global interest rates and global markets. Some background on how we arrived at this juncture, and where we might go from here, follows.
We Now Know Who Really Benefited from the Index Revolution
On the first few trading days of every month, America’s paychecks hit the stock market. Most 401(k) contributions now default into index-tracking funds, which buy the same stocks in the same proportions whatever the price.
The Key Inflation Signal for Investors
In the early weeks of Kevin Warsh’s start as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, there has been renewed focus on how “underlying” inflation should be measured to guide decisions on interest rates.
Healthcare Pt. 2: Show Me The Incentive
The truth about the runaway costs of healthcare turns out to be a little more complex than any single source we've named. Hospitals, insurers, private equity, administrators, pharmaceutical companies… pull the thread on any one and we land in the same overextended, bloated, extractive system.
America's New Debt Reality
U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.
Goldman, JPMorgan Are Among Most Bullish on Europe
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are among the most optimistic about European stocks on the back of a robust corporate earnings outlook, a Bloomberg survey shows.
T. Rowe Price Acquires $19 Billion F/m Investments
Leading asset managers T. Rowe Price announced the acquisition of $19 billion F/m Investments in a press release Thursday afternoon. The deal brings F/m’s suite of leading fixed income strategies and ETFs into T. Rowe Price’s fund stable, reinforcing those areas in the latter’s list.
Should You Consider High-Yield Municipal Bonds?
High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.
There’s More to Growth Than AI
For many of the past several years, investor enthusiasm has been concentrated in a narrow group of AI-related and technology stocks. As liquidity conditions tighten and speculation begins to recede, broader market fundamentals are gaining importance.
Gold’s Renewed Momentum Puts New Shine on IAUI
There’s new life in the gold market, and that momentum could represent a buying opportunity for bullion-enthused investors seeking income. The NEOS Gold High Income ETF (IAUI) is ready to meet the moment.
It Won’t Take Much to Burst the Stock Market Bubble
It’s easy to make the case that the US equity market is in bubble territory. After all, the major metrics point in the same direction.
Bessent Becomes Most Interventionist Treasury Chief in Decades
With a slew of unexpected maneuvers this year, Scott Bessent has emerged as the most interventionist Treasury secretary in financial markets in decades — putting his credibility on the line in an effort to quell a potentially damaging rise in US borrowing costs.
What the 2026 Midterms Could Mean for the Markets
The 2026 midterms could reshape control of Congress, raising the odds of divided government and near-term market volatility, but investors should stay focused on long-term goals.
Housing Crisis Fuels Surge in Mortgage Muni Bond Securitizations
The nation’s affordable-housing shortage is fueling a fast-growing corner of the municipal bond market, as lenders securitize portfolios of multifamily mortgages to free up capital for new loans.
Shifting Leadership in Global Growth
Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.
3% Real TIPS Yields: Boring but Valuable
Would you consider investing in a bond that earns more than 3% after accounting for inflation? What if that security has zero chance of default? Such an opportunity exists today in U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).
Let Your True Self Shine Through When Speaking With Clients
I’m always asked for scripts. You don’t want a script. You want to be natural and approach clients in a manner that fits you. Practice, practice, practice until it seems natural and comfortable. Authentic is always best.
Wall Street Leans on Insurance Pools for $16 Billion Kuwait Deal
The deal follows similar moves elsewhere in the Gulf, including oil and gas pipeline transactions by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Saudi Aramco, as governments seek to bring in external capital without losing control of key assets. In these cases, investors obtained bridge financing from banks that were later refinanced by bonds.
Balanced Budgets, Uneven Pressures
With the US fiscal year 2027 (FY27) state budget season now largely complete, several important trends have emerged. Most states and local governments adopted their budgets without major delays or political impasses, an encouraging sign for two important credit considerations: governance and financial management.
Markets Broaden as the Economy Remains Delicately Balanced
Equity markets continued to push higher this week, with nearly all major indices in the U.S. and abroad closing near or at record highs. While longer-term interest rates continued to drift higher, shorter-term interest rates moved lower as investors pushed out both the timing and magnitude of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Strong Earnings Support Stocks Despite Softer Economic Data
The market continues to impress, with the S&P 500 reaching another record high despite a surprisingly weak retail sales report. I had to look twice at the numbers because the weakness was broad, including the important control group, with the previous month also revised slightly lower.
Is It Better to Be Rich in Europe or in America?
America remains the best country in the world to get rich. Some see this as cause for celebration, while others view it as evidence of a broken capitalist system. As an economist, I am less interested in debating whether billionaires (or trillionaires) should exist than in asking what the alternative is.
Nvidia’s $500 Billion Plan Envelops Wall Street in Its AI Frenzy
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Blackstone Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. had been working tirelessly for months to draw up debt deals that would help developers of artificial intelligence systems pay for chips from Nvidia Corp.
Housing Crisis Fuels Surge in Mortgage Muni Bond Securitizations
The nation’s affordable-housing shortage is fueling a fast-growing corner of the municipal bond market, as lenders securitize portfolios of multifamily mortgages to free up capital for new loans.
Gen Z Is Mistaking Sports Betting for Investing
If the bad news is that members of Generation Z can’t afford to buy a house until they are middle-aged — which isn’t really bad news, honestly, but anyway — then the good news is that at least they are investing their money in high-performing assets.
Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)
“Think Like An Investor” is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run. Learning to think like an investor rather than a speculator is not a personality quirk or a matter of taste. It is the entire game, and the good news is that it is a skill you can actually build, starting today.
Bonds vs. Bond Funds: Which is Right for You?
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.
US Equity Leadership Remains Intact
For over two decades, US equities have been the global market leader, outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600 by an astonishing approximately 530%. While Europe’s recent comeback has narrowed the gap, the forces underpinning US leadership remain firmly intact. Below, we revisit the case for US versus European equities and reiterate why we maintain our preference for US equities.
U.S. State Budget Update
The first step in recovery is recognizing a problem. For decades, some U.S. states have had problems with indebtedness. But as we take stock of state finances today, we see many examples of recovery.
Bargain Hunters, AI Bets, and CEO Confidence: Navigating the Final Wave of Q2 Earnings
This bargain-hunting environment sets up a stark divide for upcoming earnings. Walmart (WMT) remains uniquely positioned as its dominant grocery business continues to draw trade-down traffic from higher-income households, whereas Target (TGT) faces headwinds due to its heavier mix of discretionary home and apparel goods.
Sports Betting the Newest Gen Z Investment Strategy in the War Against Inflation
For savers, it drives them to seek bigger and bigger returns to keep up with the government’s monetary devaluation. At first, a simple savings account with a relatively low yield will do the trick. But as the dollar loses purchasing power, you need a better return to keep up. So, maybe you stick your money in a higher-interest-yielding CD.
Micro Over Macro
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Lacy Hunt Turns Bearish: Studying His Reversal
Hoisington Investment Management — managed by Hunt and Hoisington — sharply reduced its clients’ bond duration and put the proceeds in Treasury bills. That reversal of such long-held opinions deserves serious attention. I will summarize Hunt’s new views and some counterpoints to help you assess his new stance.
A Market Ahead of Its Economy
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
Yen Intervention Narrative: What’s True And Not
So let’s do the work the timeline skips, starting with separating what actually happened from what the narrative needs you to believe. Then we’ll ask the only question that pays: should any of it change how you’re positioned this morning?
Caught in a Debt Trap
We are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. This has to end, and I think it will do so in the event I’ve called The Great Reset.
As Older Workers Retire, Labor Costs Ease
Recent trends are sending confusing signals about the health of the U.S. labor market. Since late 2025, the employment/population ratio has moved lower even as the unemployment rate has declined.
Yield, Duration, & Taxes: Investors Pour Billions Into Schwab Bond ETFs
Whether fixed income investors are focused on locking in yield, managing duration risk, or building resilient core portfolios, bond ETFs have been seeing elevated demand this year.
Educational Attainment Is Still in a Slump
The arrival of the new academic year prompted me to revisit a piece that we wrote in 2023, which detailed the damage that the pandemic had done to young students. In the years immediately following COVID-19, achievement scores skidded, suggesting that online learning was a poor substitute for time in the classroom.
Time for Core (Plus) Bond Portfolios Again?
Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.
Yields on the Rise: Do Stocks Notice?
The S&P 500 towed an anchor for much of the summer as a historic momentum and leverage unwind under the surface dragged on the equity benchmark before breaking out to fresh records last week.
Building Better Portfolios With Private Markets: Rethinking Retirement
While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.
Long TIPS Yield 3%. Time to Buy?
As we write this, long TIPS yields once again yield 3.0% and, as in 2008, these rates may not last long. That means: You snooze, you lose. The time to buy TIPS is now. In this article, we lay out the options and make recommendations.
Updating Your Plan for Life’s Changes: Marriage, Divorce, Inheritance, and Policy Shifts
Life rarely stands still, and for families caring for a loved one with special needs, change can introduce both emotional and financial complexity. Marriage, divorce, the loss of a parent, an unexpected inheritance, or shifts in public policy may all significantly impact eligibility for benefits, long-term financial security, and family dynamics.
Fed and Treasury Update: Higher-for-Longer Yields
The risks of a rate hike have increased lately, but we don't believe we're there just yet. If the data changes—specifically if inflation comes in hotter-than-expected over the next few months—we'll likely change our view.
Mid-Quarter Investor Conference Calendar: Stocks Heat Up Heading Into Autumn
All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability.
College Planning Starts Earlier Than You Think
College planning begins long before college. Learn why welcoming a new child is the ideal time to build a strong financial foundation, explore education savings options and prepare for your family’s future.
Stocks, Bonds Rise as Tame CPI Curbs Fed-Hike Bets
An in-line inflation reading spurred gains in both stocks and bonds, easing concern about imminent Federal Reserve rate increases despite elevated oil prices.
10 Lessons From 10 Years of Independence
After 10 years, we understand that not every conflict has a clean answer. Advisors value feeling heard and supported through difficult situations. Over time, we’ve learned that genuine engagement and thoughtful communication build more trust than rushing toward incomplete answers.
Partnerships, Not Silos: A Better Model for Serving Affluent Clients
Clients' financial lives don't operate in separate silos, and their advisory team shouldn't either. Well-designed partnerships should clearly define responsibilities, compensation, compliance obligations, and client communication. Transparent agreements create better experiences for both clients and professionals.
5 Steps To Help Retirement Advisors Compliantly Integrate AI Usage Into Their Practices
We’ve all seen how AI tools can boost our productivity and efficiency but, like most things in life, the benefits must be weighed against potential risks. Here are five best practices to help guide fiduciaries and ensure they benefit from these tools without running afoul of regulations.
Korea Sovereign Wealth Fund to Join Global Race for AI, Robotics
South Korea expects to deploy more than 1 trillion won ($707 million) of fresh capital into a new sovereign wealth fund targeting AI and other strategic industries next year, joining a global push by governments to mobilize investment and gain an edge in high-tech sectors.
Soft Payrolls, Strong Earnings Reinforce Bullish Outlook
The market was jolted by a much weaker-than-expected employment report, sending Treasury yields sharply lower as investors quickly reduced the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike. At first glance, the payroll number looked alarming, particularly when combined with sizable downward revisions to prior months and unexpectedly soft wage growth.