The S&P 500 climbed for most of the week, ending with its highest close of the year on Friday. The index is up 6.04% YTD and is 15.14% below its record close.
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
The latest full set UIG for November is 5.37% while the prices-only measure is 4.53%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.45% and Core CPI is 5.71%.
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 146.7%, down from 156.2% the previous quarter.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,364 for an annualized real return of 5.8%.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of December 30, 2022, it was at 3.88%.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite since 2000. We've updated this through the December 30, 2022 close.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Note: This update includes December close data.
Quick take: At the end of December the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 115% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
The S&P 500 peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.
The headline number of 108.3 was an increase of 8.1 from the final reading of 100.2 for November.
Broad-market exposure meets sustainability. The S&P 500 ESG Index is a market-cap-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of securities meeting sustainability criteria, while maintaining similar overall industry group weights as the S&P 500. Intentionally broad—including over 300 of the original S&P 500 companies—the index seeks to reflect many of the attributes of the S&P 500 itself, while providing an improved sustainability profile.
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
At a time when virtually all of Wall Street is on guard against a recession, Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group said stocks are about to rally at least 25% in the next year.
“Web1” represents static websites, and “Web2” represents the shift in the delivery of the internet to user-centric, dynamic web offerings and platforms.
Equity investors are not being adequately compensated for the economic, geopolitical and financial risks they are bearing. The equity risk premium is too small.
A yield curve inversion, when rates for two-year US Treasury notes rise above those for 10-year notes, has preceded every recession since the 1960s. The first clear inversion in 15 years happened in July 2022, although there were brief and shallow inversions in August 2019 and April 2022.
Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears, with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.
James McHugh isn’t afraid of a little risk. The trouble this year has been knowing where to find it. Crypto burned him. Meme stocks are stuck in the pits. So McHugh, a 36-year-old who works in Houston’s oil and gas industry, has been getting his fix in a corner of the market retail investors typically overlook — junk debt.
I explore some of the factors driving the superiority of PLIBs, in particular lapsation, mortality experience differences, accessing the equity risk premium, and the marginal role of annuities as part of a retirement strategy.
New research reveals that stock prices revert to a predictable P/E multiple, which is a function of growth and profitability. It also shows why growth stocks, while more profitable than value stocks, earn lower returns.
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
While the crypto horror show rages on, stocks have quietly rallied almost 10% in the last month amid cautious optimism that the worst of the inflation shock is over. But might it be a head-fake?
Mohamed El-Erian sees the rollercoaster ride in financial markets, with Friday’s surprisingly strong US jobs report producing the latest drop, as another lesson for Chairman Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve colleagues.
We continue to believe that a value-conscious, risk-managed, full-cycle discipline, focused on the combination of valuations and market internals, will be essential in navigating market volatility in the years ahead.
Weaker economic trends will likely form heading into 2023 as the Fed battles inflation, but a (hopefully) mild recession may help set stocks up for a better second half of the year.
While economists have been lowering their employment forecast month over month over month, the U.S. labor market has continued to disappoint those forecasts and has remained relatively strong as well as relatively stable, with jobs growing at an average of 392,000 per month during 2022.
Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we usually mean the economy’s condition is changing—from expansion to recession, deflationary to inflationary, emerging to developing, etc. That’s different from changes in the economy’s actual structure.
One bad year in the stock market has turned Wall Street strategists into bears after two decades of bullishness.
US employers added more jobs than forecast and wages surged by the most in nearly a year, pointing to enduring inflation pressures that boost chances of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
U.S. equities are sliding as investors sift through the November labor report that showed stronger-than-expected job growth.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
To properly guide their clients, financial advisors must have a good understanding of the long-run behavior of stock and bonds returns.
Better than expected inflationary data and corporate earnings reports helped boost S&P 500 to back-to-back rallies for first time since mid-2021.
Value equities are still priced for significant outperformance, globally.
The ongoing public drama surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and FTX is still unfolding, and there's been excellent coverage of many aspects of the story. Here's a short note on one piece of the puzzle we think is quite important, but so far has remained somewhat under the radar.
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) has produced incredibly consistent growth since it was spun off in 2001.
Whether foreign nations want or need tightening or easing, they are stuck with the monetary policy that the Fed decides America needs.
The top bosses of US oil and gas companies are speaking less and less about climate and carbon emissions, a signal that the industry’s public focus on ESG over the past couple of years may be fading.
It’s tempting to dismiss the mass layoffs and collapsing stock prices in the tech sector as just another blip in the tech boom-and-bust cycle.
November has given a glimpse of the outperformance that emerging markets can deliver in the post-stimulus world as the maturing phase of Federal Reserve tightening focuses investors’ minds on the opportunities beyond.
Apple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over the past decade, more than any other US company, and the technology juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down.
Global bonds joined US peers in signaling a recession, with a gauge measuring the worldwide yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades.
The question most asked by investors late last year, as Treasury bill yields hovered just above zero was “Where can I go for yield?” followed soon after by “What can I do to protect myself from inflation?”
U.S. stocks are choppy in pre-market trading on the heels of yesterday's drop ahead of tomorrow's comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
As Europe struggles with war, costly energy, record inflation and slowing growth, it’s no surprise that European corporate credit is out of favor.
There are many ways to decompose the bond market to identify the component pieces to infer what the market is pricing in.
A planner who fails to follow their own advice is hardly going to inspire confidence in prospective clients.
Doll’s Deliberations this week summarizes some short-term expectations and some longer-term issues.
The US housing market is in an uneasy state of equilibrium.
There’s a big “open secret” in Silicon Valley that’s spreading, one that has already reached three-fourths of FANG. But the market has yet to recognize its impact on one remaining company.
Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first.
This article explores the efficacy of PLIBs against a retirement income strategy that does not include an annuity, as well as strategies which allocate to either a SPIA, a DIA, or a GLWB. I used a utility framework for this analysis.
Technology megatrends transform society, and there is a hugely significant fourth wave on the horizon.
Vivek Tanneeru, portfolio manager, sees structural and cyclical tailwinds converging for emerging markets equities.
In one of the most challenging years for markets, 2022 brought persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening and heightened geopolitical risks, leaving investors with few places to hide.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s draft plans to overhaul rules for the stock market would also expand its oversight of bond and options trading.
After losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts are saying the share-price decline has gone far enough.
Historically, soaring oil prices have been bad for the US economy because they squeeze US consumers and producers, and often are happening when the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to rein in inflation.
U.S. equities are rising, although no notable directional drivers seem to be in play amid the holiday-shortened week, with the markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and trading in a half day on Friday.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) sentiment about the future was 33% and at its lowest since 2012.
Tighter Federal Reserve policy is raising households’ interest-rate burden, leading to a rapid decline in excess savings and underscoring the likelihood hawkishness has peaked.
Wall Street’s waning conviction in Coinbase Global Inc. has done little to deter Cathie Wood. Instead, she’s been scooping up shares of the struggling cryptocurrency exchange in the wake of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX.
Advisors and their clients need to manage pressures they have not seen for 20 years: market volatility, inflation, rising interest rates and potentially higher taxes. With fixed income not holding up as a low-risk part of the portfolio, it is time to look at other strategies to protect client portfolios.
Believe it or not, 2022 is almost over. That means it’s time to start thinking about end-of-year tax planning strategies…
With the midterm elections behind us, does the market outlook improve given a now gridlocked Congress? Historically speaking, such is the case.
The S&P 500 is down 15% over the past year, so you’d think this would have been a great time to own some protection on your portfolio. Unfortunately, that’s not how things have turned out.
In this letter I’d like to explore the impact interest rates will have on the economy and especially the housing market.
Lifetime annuities in concert with allocations to stocks, TIPS, bond ladders and other diversified investments help retirees weather changing conditions regarding inflation and interest rates.
On the most optimistic corners of Wall Street, promising inflation data over the past week or so suggest the Federal Reserve may accomplish a soft landing after all.
Two aspects of the financial markets operate simultaneously. Emphatically, they do not operate alternately, but simultaneously. One aspect is driven entirely by arithmetic. Every security is a claim to some long-term stream of cash flows that will be delivered to the holder, or series of holders, over time.
A year after the Nasdaq 100 Index last closed at an all-time high, there’s no sign the index is heading back to those heights any time soon.
Franklin Mutual Series believes dividend payers can give value investors better total returns over the longer term.
With Tuesday's (Nov 15th) Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers bringing more relief on the inflation side, a new bearish narrative has been put forward by financial pundits over the last few days.
To foresee what crisis might be next, it is vital to understand the dollar's role in global finance and economics and the resulting role that the Fed plays in influencing global monetary policy.
If you had to point to one culprit holding back the economy over the past 18 months, it would be the auto industry.
US stocks will end 2023 almost unchanged from their current level -- but will have a bumpy ride to get there, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
Since June, the market rallied on hopes of a “policy pivot” by the Federal Reserve.
Are the FANG stocks dead?
In February of this year, I posted a subscriber request video titled: “5 Premier Dividend Growth Stocks With A Margin Of Safety.”
U.S. equities are lower as the global markets await the final results of the U.S. midterm elections as the control of the Congress remains undetermined.
The three-day selloff in the US dollar on the back of a global stock rally and just the possibility -- yet to materialize -- of an end to China’s Covid-zero policy, has caught market players’ attention.
Bank of America Corp. clients from retail investors to hedge fund managers sold into last week’s slump, dumping stocks across every industry, according to the bank’s data.
S&P 500
S&P 500 Snapshot: Friday Ends Up 0.25%
The S&P 500 climbed for most of the week, ending with its highest close of the year on Friday. The index is up 6.04% YTD and is 15.14% below its record close.
Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Margin Debt Down 5.8% in December
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
Underlying Inflation Gauge: December Update
The latest full set UIG for November is 5.37% while the prices-only measure is 4.53%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.45% and Core CPI is 5.71%.
Emerging-Market Stocks Rise to Six-Month High Versus S&P 500
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
Market Cap to GDP: Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 146.7%, down from 156.2% the previous quarter.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,364 for an annualized real return of 5.8%.
December 2022: Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of December 30, 2022, it was at 3.88%.
Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite since 2000. We've updated this through the December 30, 2022 close.
P/E10: December 2022 Update
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: December Update
Note: This update includes December close data.
Regression to Trend: 115% Above Trend in December
Quick take: At the end of December the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 115% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets
The S&P 500 peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Moving Averages: S&P Down 5.9% in December, Down 19.4% in 2022
Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.
Consumer Confidence Bounces Back in December
The headline number of 108.3 was an increase of 8.1 from the final reading of 100.2 for November.
S&P 500 ESG Index: Defining the Sustainable Core
Broad-market exposure meets sustainability. The S&P 500 ESG Index is a market-cap-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of securities meeting sustainability criteria, while maintaining similar overall industry group weights as the S&P 500. Intentionally broad—including over 300 of the original S&P 500 companies—the index seeks to reflect many of the attributes of the S&P 500 itself, while providing an improved sustainability profile.
Lessons From The “Nifty Fifty”
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
Leuthold’s Paulsen Sees S&P 500 at 5,000 in New Bull Cycle
At a time when virtually all of Wall Street is on guard against a recession, Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group said stocks are about to rally at least 25% in the next year.
Read, Write, Own—How Web3 Can Restore Trust in Markets and Society
“Web1” represents static websites, and “Web2” represents the shift in the delivery of the internet to user-centric, dynamic web offerings and platforms.
Equity Investors Aren’t Being Paid for the Risks They Take
Equity investors are not being adequately compensated for the economic, geopolitical and financial risks they are bearing. The equity risk premium is too small.
What the Inverted Yield Curve Says About the Next Recession
A yield curve inversion, when rates for two-year US Treasury notes rise above those for 10-year notes, has preceded every recession since the 1960s. The first clear inversion in 15 years happened in July 2022, although there were brief and shallow inversions in August 2019 and April 2022.
Recovery and Risk
Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears, with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.
Bonds Get a Meme Moment as Reddit Crowd Drifts Over From Stocks
James McHugh isn’t afraid of a little risk. The trouble this year has been knowing where to find it. Crypto burned him. Meme stocks are stuck in the pits. So McHugh, a 36-year-old who works in Houston’s oil and gas industry, has been getting his fix in a corner of the market retail investors typically overlook — junk debt.
The Drivers of the Efficiency of Protected Lifetime Income Benefit (PLIB) Strategies: Part 3
I explore some of the factors driving the superiority of PLIBs, in particular lapsation, mortality experience differences, accessing the equity risk premium, and the marginal role of annuities as part of a retirement strategy.
Estimating the Fair P/E Multiple
New research reveals that stock prices revert to a predictable P/E multiple, which is a function of growth and profitability. It also shows why growth stocks, while more profitable than value stocks, earn lower returns.
The Alternative Tech Stack
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
This Stock Strategist Says We’ll See 5% Inflation for the Next Decade
While the crypto horror show rages on, stocks have quietly rallied almost 10% in the last month amid cautious optimism that the worst of the inflation shock is over. But might it be a head-fake?
Wall Street Veteran El-Erian Says Fed Comments Roil Markets
Mohamed El-Erian sees the rollercoaster ride in financial markets, with Friday’s surprisingly strong US jobs report producing the latest drop, as another lesson for Chairman Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve colleagues.
December 2022 Portfolio Notes
We continue to believe that a value-conscious, risk-managed, full-cycle discipline, focused on the combination of valuations and market internals, will be essential in navigating market volatility in the years ahead.
U.S. Outlook: How Many More Times, Fed?
Weaker economic trends will likely form heading into 2023 as the Fed battles inflation, but a (hopefully) mild recession may help set stocks up for a better second half of the year.
The Labor Market Is Dead, Long Live the Labor Market
While economists have been lowering their employment forecast month over month over month, the U.S. labor market has continued to disappoint those forecasts and has remained relatively strong as well as relatively stable, with jobs growing at an average of 392,000 per month during 2022.
The Economy Is a-Changin’
Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we usually mean the economy’s condition is changing—from expansion to recession, deflationary to inflationary, emerging to developing, etc. That’s different from changes in the economy’s actual structure.
Wall Street Turns Bearish on Stocks After Bad Year
One bad year in the stock market has turned Wall Street strategists into bears after two decades of bullishness.
US Hiring and Wages Extend Strong Gains, Keeping Pressure on Fed
US employers added more jobs than forecast and wages surged by the most in nearly a year, pointing to enduring inflation pressures that boost chances of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Stocks Tumble in Wake of Hot Labor Report
U.S. equities are sliding as investors sift through the November labor report that showed stronger-than-expected job growth.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
The Long-Run Behavior of Stocks, Government Bonds, and Inflation in the U.S.
To properly guide their clients, financial advisors must have a good understanding of the long-run behavior of stock and bonds returns.
S&P 500 Secures Second Consecutive Month Of Gains
Better than expected inflationary data and corporate earnings reports helped boost S&P 500 to back-to-back rallies for first time since mid-2021.
Quarterly Letter 3Q 2022
Value equities are still priced for significant outperformance, globally.
A Missing Piece of the SBF Puzzle
The ongoing public drama surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and FTX is still unfolding, and there's been excellent coverage of many aspects of the story. Here's a short note on one piece of the puzzle we think is quite important, but so far has remained somewhat under the radar.
Recession Resistant Consistent Growth Stock at Attractive Value
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) has produced incredibly consistent growth since it was spun off in 2001.
The Fed is Exporting Global Inflation - Part II
Whether foreign nations want or need tightening or easing, they are stuck with the monetary policy that the Fed decides America needs.
Energy CEOs Hit Mute Button on ESG, Hinting at Fading Interest
The top bosses of US oil and gas companies are speaking less and less about climate and carbon emissions, a signal that the industry’s public focus on ESG over the past couple of years may be fading.
Big Tech Has Failed to Live Up to Its Promise
It’s tempting to dismiss the mass layoffs and collapsing stock prices in the tech sector as just another blip in the tech boom-and-bust cycle.
November Brings Best Gains in Years to Emerging Markets
November has given a glimpse of the outperformance that emerging markets can deliver in the post-stimulus world as the maturing phase of Federal Reserve tightening focuses investors’ minds on the opportunities beyond.
Apple's Historic Buyback Keeps Investors Captivated
Apple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over the past decade, more than any other US company, and the technology juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down.
Global Yield Curve Inverts in Signal a Recession Is Brewing
Global bonds joined US peers in signaling a recession, with a gauge measuring the worldwide yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades.
Playing Inflation Russian Roulette in Retirement
The question most asked by investors late last year, as Treasury bill yields hovered just above zero was “Where can I go for yield?” followed soon after by “What can I do to protect myself from inflation?”
Stocks Subdued After Yesterday's Drop
U.S. stocks are choppy in pre-market trading on the heels of yesterday's drop ahead of tomorrow's comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Fixed Income Strategy if a Recession is Declared
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Can European Credit Ride Out the Storm?
As Europe struggles with war, costly energy, record inflation and slowing growth, it’s no surprise that European corporate credit is out of favor.
Does the Inflation Risk Premium Decline Signal Lower Commodity Prices?
There are many ways to decompose the bond market to identify the component pieces to infer what the market is pricing in.
Do Clients Need to Know Your Net Worth?
A planner who fails to follow their own advice is hardly going to inspire confidence in prospective clients.
Doll's Deliberations
Doll’s Deliberations this week summarizes some short-term expectations and some longer-term issues.
Rising Inventory Will Be the Housing Market’s Next Problem
The US housing market is in an uneasy state of equilibrium.
Using Silicon Valley's "Open Secret" to Buy a World-Class Tech Stock
There’s a big “open secret” in Silicon Valley that’s spreading, one that has already reached three-fourths of FANG. But the market has yet to recognize its impact on one remaining company.
More Bearish Market Action Before The Bull Can Run
Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first.
Contrasting Protected Lifetime Income Benefits (PLIBs) Against Other Annuities (Part 2)
This article explores the efficacy of PLIBs against a retirement income strategy that does not include an annuity, as well as strategies which allocate to either a SPIA, a DIA, or a GLWB. I used a utility framework for this analysis.
Evolution & Revolution: Five Technology Megatrends Impacting Society
Technology megatrends transform society, and there is a hugely significant fourth wave on the horizon.
Looking Up
Vivek Tanneeru, portfolio manager, sees structural and cyclical tailwinds converging for emerging markets equities.
Three Income Themes for Multi-Asset Investors in 2023
In one of the most challenging years for markets, 2022 brought persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening and heightened geopolitical risks, leaving investors with few places to hide.
SEC to Push Bond and Option Brokers for Better Prices on Trades
The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s draft plans to overhaul rules for the stock market would also expand its oversight of bond and options trading.
Tesla a Bargain as It Nears Morgan Stanley Bear Case
After losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts are saying the share-price decline has gone far enough.
Oil Prices Are Breaking an Old Recession Tradition
Historically, soaring oil prices have been bad for the US economy because they squeeze US consumers and producers, and often are happening when the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to rein in inflation.
Stocks Increasing Amid Well Received Earnings Reports
U.S. equities are rising, although no notable directional drivers seem to be in play amid the holiday-shortened week, with the markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and trading in a half day on Friday.
Home Builders’ Sentiment
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) sentiment about the future was 33% and at its lowest since 2012.
Fed Hawkishness Peaks as Rising Debt Payments Erode Savings
Tighter Federal Reserve policy is raising households’ interest-rate burden, leading to a rapid decline in excess savings and underscoring the likelihood hawkishness has peaked.
Cathie Wood Goes On Coinbase Buying Spree as Wall Street Sours
Wall Street’s waning conviction in Coinbase Global Inc. has done little to deter Cathie Wood. Instead, she’s been scooping up shares of the struggling cryptocurrency exchange in the wake of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX.
The Case for Annuities in Today’s Market
Advisors and their clients need to manage pressures they have not seen for 20 years: market volatility, inflation, rising interest rates and potentially higher taxes. With fixed income not holding up as a low-risk part of the portfolio, it is time to look at other strategies to protect client portfolios.
The Silver Lining to Investment Losses in 2022
Believe it or not, 2022 is almost over. That means it’s time to start thinking about end-of-year tax planning strategies…
Midterm Elections Are Bullish Even in a Bear Market
With the midterm elections behind us, does the market outlook improve given a now gridlocked Congress? Historically speaking, such is the case.
Who Wants Protection Like This?
The S&P 500 is down 15% over the past year, so you’d think this would have been a great time to own some protection on your portfolio. Unfortunately, that’s not how things have turned out.
The Housing Market is Worse Than You Think
In this letter I’d like to explore the impact interest rates will have on the economy and especially the housing market.
Inflation, Interest Rates and Retirement Planning
Lifetime annuities in concert with allocations to stocks, TIPS, bond ladders and other diversified investments help retirees weather changing conditions regarding inflation and interest rates.
Wall Street Rebuffs Soft-Landing Dream as 92% Bet on Stagflation
On the most optimistic corners of Wall Street, promising inflation data over the past week or so suggest the Federal Reserve may accomplish a soft landing after all.
Weighing Machine, Voting Machine
Two aspects of the financial markets operate simultaneously. Emphatically, they do not operate alternately, but simultaneously. One aspect is driven entirely by arithmetic. Every security is a claim to some long-term stream of cash flows that will be delivered to the holder, or series of holders, over time.
One Year From a Record High, the Nasdaq Has a Long Road to Recovery
A year after the Nasdaq 100 Index last closed at an all-time high, there’s no sign the index is heading back to those heights any time soon.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
The Value of Dividends in Any Season
Franklin Mutual Series believes dividend payers can give value investors better total returns over the longer term.
The Ever-Evolving Bearish Narrative
With Tuesday's (Nov 15th) Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers bringing more relief on the inflation side, a new bearish narrative has been put forward by financial pundits over the last few days.
The Dollar is the World's Problem (Part 1)
To foresee what crisis might be next, it is vital to understand the dollar's role in global finance and economics and the resulting role that the Fed plays in influencing global monetary policy.
Auto Industry Is the Economy’s Best Hope Right Now
If you had to point to one culprit holding back the economy over the past 18 months, it would be the auto industry.
Morgan Stanley Sees Rough Ride for US Stocks in 2023
US stocks will end 2023 almost unchanged from their current level -- but will have a bumpy ride to get there, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
The “Policy Pivot” May Not Be Bullish
Since June, the market rallied on hopes of a “policy pivot” by the Federal Reserve.
Are The FANG Stocks Dead?
Are the FANG stocks dead?
5 Dividend Growth Stocks-Prices Say I Was Wrong–Fundamentals Say I Was Right: Which Do You Believe?
In February of this year, I posted a subscriber request video titled: “5 Premier Dividend Growth Stocks With A Margin Of Safety.”
Stocks Lower as Control of Congress Remains Unclear
U.S. equities are lower as the global markets await the final results of the U.S. midterm elections as the control of the Congress remains undetermined.
Dollar Is Down, But Not Out, as Fed Prepares for More Rate Hikes
The three-day selloff in the US dollar on the back of a global stock rally and just the possibility -- yet to materialize -- of an end to China’s Covid-zero policy, has caught market players’ attention.
BofA Clients Pull Money From Stocks at Fastest Clip Since 2021
Bank of America Corp. clients from retail investors to hedge fund managers sold into last week’s slump, dumping stocks across every industry, according to the bank’s data.