S&P 500

At a time when virtually all of Wall Street is on guard against a recession, Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group said stocks are about to rally at least 25% in the next year.

Equity investors are not being adequately compensated for the economic, geopolitical and financial risks they are bearing. The equity risk premium is too small.

A yield curve inversion, when rates for two-year US Treasury notes rise above those for 10-year notes, has preceded every recession since the 1960s. The first clear inversion in 15 years happened in July 2022, although there were brief and shallow inversions in August 2019 and April 2022.

James McHugh isn’t afraid of a little risk. The trouble this year has been knowing where to find it. Crypto burned him. Meme stocks are stuck in the pits. So McHugh, a 36-year-old who works in Houston’s oil and gas industry, has been getting his fix in a corner of the market retail investors typically overlook — junk debt.

I explore some of the factors driving the superiority of PLIBs, in particular lapsation, mortality experience differences, accessing the equity risk premium, and the marginal role of annuities as part of a retirement strategy.

New research reveals that stock prices revert to a predictable P/E multiple, which is a function of growth and profitability. It also shows why growth stocks, while more profitable than value stocks, earn lower returns.

Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.

While the crypto horror show rages on, stocks have quietly rallied almost 10% in the last month amid cautious optimism that the worst of the inflation shock is over. But might it be a head-fake?

Mohamed El-Erian sees the rollercoaster ride in financial markets, with Friday’s surprisingly strong US jobs report producing the latest drop, as another lesson for Chairman Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve colleagues.

One bad year in the stock market has turned Wall Street strategists into bears after two decades of bullishness.

US employers added more jobs than forecast and wages surged by the most in nearly a year, pointing to enduring inflation pressures that boost chances of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

The ongoing public drama surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and FTX is still unfolding, and there's been excellent coverage of many aspects of the story. Here's a short note on one piece of the puzzle we think is quite important, but so far has remained somewhat under the radar.

Whether foreign nations want or need tightening or easing, they are stuck with the monetary policy that the Fed decides America needs.

The top bosses of US oil and gas companies are speaking less and less about climate and carbon emissions, a signal that the industry’s public focus on ESG over the past couple of years may be fading.

It’s tempting to dismiss the mass layoffs and collapsing stock prices in the tech sector as just another blip in the tech boom-and-bust cycle.

November has given a glimpse of the outperformance that emerging markets can deliver in the post-stimulus world as the maturing phase of Federal Reserve tightening focuses investors’ minds on the opportunities beyond.

Apple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over the past decade, more than any other US company, and the technology juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down.

Global bonds joined US peers in signaling a recession, with a gauge measuring the worldwide yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades.

The question most asked by investors late last year, as Treasury bill yields hovered just above zero was “Where can I go for yield?” followed soon after by “What can I do to protect myself from inflation?”

A planner who fails to follow their own advice is hardly going to inspire confidence in prospective clients.

The US housing market is in an uneasy state of equilibrium.

This article explores the efficacy of PLIBs against a retirement income strategy that does not include an annuity, as well as strategies which allocate to either a SPIA, a DIA, or a GLWB. I used a utility framework for this analysis.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s draft plans to overhaul rules for the stock market would also expand its oversight of bond and options trading.

After losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts are saying the share-price decline has gone far enough.

Historically, soaring oil prices have been bad for the US economy because they squeeze US consumers and producers, and often are happening when the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to rein in inflation.

Tighter Federal Reserve policy is raising households’ interest-rate burden, leading to a rapid decline in excess savings and underscoring the likelihood hawkishness has peaked.

Wall Street’s waning conviction in Coinbase Global Inc. has done little to deter Cathie Wood. Instead, she’s been scooping up shares of the struggling cryptocurrency exchange in the wake of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX.

Advisors and their clients need to manage pressures they have not seen for 20 years: market volatility, inflation, rising interest rates and potentially higher taxes. With fixed income not holding up as a low-risk part of the portfolio, it is time to look at other strategies to protect client portfolios.

The S&P 500 is down 15% over the past year, so you’d think this would have been a great time to own some protection on your portfolio. Unfortunately, that’s not how things have turned out.

In this letter I’d like to explore the impact interest rates will have on the economy and especially the housing market.

Lifetime annuities in concert with allocations to stocks, TIPS, bond ladders and other diversified investments help retirees weather changing conditions regarding inflation and interest rates.

On the most optimistic corners of Wall Street, promising inflation data over the past week or so suggest the Federal Reserve may accomplish a soft landing after all.

A year after the Nasdaq 100 Index last closed at an all-time high, there’s no sign the index is heading back to those heights any time soon.

To foresee what crisis might be next, it is vital to understand the dollar's role in global finance and economics and the resulting role that the Fed plays in influencing global monetary policy.

If you had to point to one culprit holding back the economy over the past 18 months, it would be the auto industry.

US stocks will end 2023 almost unchanged from their current level -- but will have a bumpy ride to get there, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.

The three-day selloff in the US dollar on the back of a global stock rally and just the possibility -- yet to materialize -- of an end to China’s Covid-zero policy, has caught market players’ attention.

Bank of America Corp. clients from retail investors to hedge fund managers sold into last week’s slump, dumping stocks across every industry, according to the bank’s data.