Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Sales of new US homes jumped in May, reflecting gains in the West and South and interrupting a months-long skid as the residential real estate market adjusts to rising borrowing costs and still-elevated prices.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
This morning's release of the May New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 5696K, up 10.7% month-over-month from a revised 629K in April. The Investing.com forecast was for 588K. The median home price is now at $449K.
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
US banking giants are poised to return $80 billion to shareholders after this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, less than last year’s elevated level that followed a pandemic-driven buyback pause.
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
On the edges of US Sun Belt suburbia, the wait lists for new houses are gone. And homebuilders are doing something they haven’t done in years: slashing prices.
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
May's ZHVI came in at $349,816, up 1.5% from the previous month and up 20.7% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.85% MoM and 14.8% YoY.
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
Mortgage rates in the US surged the most in more than three decades, ratcheting up pressure on would-be homebuyers and cooling the housing market.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.549M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.701M and a 14.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.810M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.695M was down 7% from the April reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.785M.
Mexico was the best-performing Latin American market in 2021 and our recent trip reinforced the reasons to remain bullish.
Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting provides the clearest sign yet that the central bank is treating inflation as a national emergency, with markets expecting a 0.75% interest-rate increase.
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
In our third of three posts on small-cap valuations, let’s examine how focusing on dividend payers amid a volatile market backdrop has provided excess returns, with even lower valuations.
Luxury-home sales in the US are sinking as inflation, economic uncertainty and the stock-market slump push wealthy buyers to the sidelines.
Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.
In terms of a return on investment, it’s hard to imagine a worse outcome than the deal that American taxpayers got from Corinthian Colleges Inc., the for-profit college that closed and filed for bankruptcy in 2015.
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
Investor sentiment expert Peter Atwater believes the bear market is only just beginning.
Even as the US real estate market shows signs of cooling, inflation and higher interest rates are making it difficult for young house hunters to buy properties — at least on their own.
A cooler housing market isn't a bad outcome.
While the danger of a downturn has risen as growth has slowed, most economists argue a contraction is unlikely in the immediate future, given the continued strength of the jobs market and the more than $2 trillion in excess cash on household balance sheets.
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
Homeowners should take a total-balance-sheet view when evaluating options for their mortgage.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets?
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
What do you tell clients who suddenly find themselves receiving a large financial windfall?
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.01% after a loss of 8.8% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
With this morning's release of the March S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 2.4% increase month over month which is cut to 2.0% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.6% YoY increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for March. U.S. house prices were up 1.5%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 19% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is down 0.14% in March and up 7.9% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
The bear has ended a long hibernation.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy.
Texas now leads the nation in the number of Fortune 500 companies that are headquartered in the state.
With the release of this morning's report on April's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.25% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 0% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.42% nominal and an increase from the -0.48% real change. The year-over-year metrics are -0.54% nominal and -6.41% real.
The National Association of Realtors released the March data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales slipped in April, as contract activity decreased for the sixth consecutive month."
"The bear is coming! The bear is coming!" Indeed, it is. Should you be worried?
The recent surge in interest rates and inflation has put the record strength in housing under a microscope.
Research Affiliates discusses the intriguing long-term outlook for value stocks, and provides insights on the models that underpin its asset class forecasts.
“What does a yellow light mean? Slow down!
John Paul Lech, Lead Manager of the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund, explains the potential value that unique real estate equities can offer emerging market-growth portfolios.
Our weekly commentaries provide Euro Pacific Capital's latest thinking on developments in the global marketplace.
Whenever I surf television cable news channels, I see the plethora of ads for financial planning. But they are run by companies that sell financial products or are owned by huge insurance companies.
Wylie Tollette, Head of Client Investment Solutions with Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, joins the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover, for a conversation on the recent equity market selloff.
Advisors face an uphill battle to get attendance to their events.
The seasonally adjusted median home sale price jumped 3.6% in April from March, the biggest increase in Zillow data dating to 2012. Inventory is starting to rise slightly, but it’s still so low that it’s vastly outstripped by demand, fueling housing appreciation.
The Strategic Investment Conference wrapped up this week with another wave of strong, fascinating speakers and panels. Today I have more to share and, as you’ll see, the plot thickened considerably.
At a time when New York towers are struggling with high vacancies and many workers are still remote, money managers are seeking to accommodate growing staff and encourage in-person collaboration with trendier digs. Along with tech companies, they’re helping to fill part of the void left from employers giving up space -- even as Manhattan’s office supply continues to grow faster than demand.
While I am not a practice management guru, an experience I had this past year warrants sharing. it led to adding value to your clients in a way few of you do.
With the average U.S. mortgage rate above 5% and home prices at record highs, homeownership feels increasingly out of reach, particularly for young, first-time buyers. To make it work, some are renting out rooms or basements and using the extra income to help offset their costs.
Until recently, inflation and interest rates had been on a secular downtrend after peaking in the early 1980s.
The Fed is on a single-minded mission to fight inflation, according to Jim Bianco. To do that, it will crush stock prices and home values.
The Milken Institute Global Conference continues in Beverly Hills, California, bringing together investors, dealmakers, power brokers and celebrities to discuss markets and megatrends. Academics, sports stars, entrepreneurs and politicians among the thousands coming to the Beverly Hilton for the event, which runs through Wednesday.
Warren Buffett has simple advice for investors as they stare down the worst inflation in decades: Invest in your own skills.
The U.S. economy will be in recession in the second half of this year, according to David Rosenberg. Equity Investors should brace for a 30% bear market decline.
The push-and-pull between centralization and decentralization is the great contest of our times. And decentralization is winning out.
In propping up Japan's economy and financial markets, its central bank indirectly provided liquidity to the world's financial markets. But the BOJ could unleash a liquidity vacuum felt around the world.
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q1 2022.
With the world economy still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and now dealing with the Ukraine-Russia crisis, markets face a great deal of uncertainty.
Bank CEOs kicked off earnings season with a consistent message that household finances and demand are in solid shape. Procter & Gamble Co., which counts Tide, Bounty and Pampers among its brands, has seen consumers reaching for premium-brand products. Bank of America Corp. and credit-card giant American Express Co. noted solid travel demand.
After a multi-decade pause, the winds of inflation have picked up. Only TIPS have been an effective hedge against inflation. Other asset classes have failed to varying degrees.
Through higher mortgage rates, demand for US housing is beginning to wane.
If you haven’t noticed—perhaps because you live on Mars—inflation is here. Not just in the US but almost everywhere. Prices for everyday goods and services, including necessities like food, are climbing rapidly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% in the 12 months through March… and we know it understates categories like housing.
The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, its best day since mid-March and only its second gain in seven sessions. The Russell 2000 Index of smaller firms added 2% in its strongest performance of April. Meanwhile, S&P sectors sensitive to the economy -- including consumer discretionary and real estate -- outperformed, with only energy closing lower.
An often overlooked and underutilized fixed-income alternative, preferred securities offer investors compelling diversification and income opportunities in today's volatile, rising interest rate environment. With yields and returns comparable to high-yield fixed income, today's preferred securities have evolved into a distinct and attractive income-generating asset class.
As we have noted in this space in the past, there is a lot of the world that cannot be captured by the most elegant and detailed of spreadsheets.
Five commercial real estate sectors in markets across the globe have the potential to thrive in this environment.
If you are under 45 and live in America or Europe, the odds are this past year has been your first real experience with inflation. Other than a blip in 2008, inflation has barely topped 3% in the last 30 years.
Will the cloud drive massive increases in productivity and wealth – as the internet did before it? That is the central question asked by Mark Mills in his stunning new book, The Cloud Revolution.
To start, let’s discuss what diversification is and what it is not.
In his federal budget for fiscal year 2023 that he unveiled earlier this month, President Biden proposed a huge new tax increase on America’s wealthiest citizens.
As much as I like money, I have found that being cheap looks bad, especially for a successful financial advisor.
My column yesterday outlined six categories of winners and losers spawned by the current disruptive global economic environment as it transfers incomes and assets. Here are five more that result from the repricing of goods and assets.
Here’s how to customize your calendaring system so that you weed out unqualified prospects and spend your time talking to qualified ones.
The U.S. Marshals Service held 22 cryptocurrencies valued at about $919 million last December, according to spokeswoman Shaunteh Kelly. In February the U.S. made its largest financial seizure ever: about $3.6 billion in Bitcoin stolen during a 2016 hack of the Bitfinex currency exchange. And cryptocurrencies made up almost all—93%—of the assets confiscated by the Internal Revenue Service’s Criminal Investigation Division in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.
There was a little March Madness on Wall Street.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added pressure to the inflationary cycle that began in late 2020.
Real Estate
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way for Shareholder Payouts
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Sales of New US Homes Jumped in May, Marking First Gain This Year
Sales of new US homes jumped in May, reflecting gains in the West and South and interrupting a months-long skid as the residential real estate market adjusts to rising borrowing costs and still-elevated prices.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
New Home Sales Up 10.7% in May
This morning's release of the May New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 5696K, up 10.7% month-over-month from a revised 629K in April. The Investing.com forecast was for 588K. The median home price is now at $449K.
Wall Street South Gets Biggest Win in Griffin’s Grand Miami Plan
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
Don’t Cry for the Most Wealthy
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
Existing-Home Sales: Down 3.4% in May
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
Big, Boxy Apartment Buildings Are Multiplying Faster Than Ever
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
Big Banks Led by JPMorgan Set to Return $80 Billion to Investors
US banking giants are poised to return $80 billion to shareholders after this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, less than last year’s elevated level that followed a pandemic-driven buyback pause.
How Venture Capital Thrives by Betting on Weirdness
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
Builders Are Slashing Prices to Sell Homes in Fast-Cooling US Markets
On the edges of US Sun Belt suburbia, the wait lists for new houses are gone. And homebuilders are doing something they haven’t done in years: slashing prices.
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
For All Their Worries, Investors Are Piling Into US Stocks
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
ESG Investment Cools as the Sector’s Notoriety Grows
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
Zillow Home Value Index: May Update
May's ZHVI came in at $349,816, up 1.5% from the previous month and up 20.7% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.85% MoM and 14.8% YoY.
Bond Market Losses Just Beginning as Fed Sets Path to 4% Yields
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
Consumer Spending Is Running Out Of Steam and the Market Isn’t Ready For It
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
US Mortgage Rates Surge to 5.78% in Biggest Jump Since 1987
Mortgage rates in the US surged the most in more than three decades, ratcheting up pressure on would-be homebuyers and cooling the housing market.
New Residential Housing Starts Down 14% in May
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.549M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.701M and a 14.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.810M.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 14% from April
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.695M was down 7% from the April reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.785M.
Closer Look: Postcard from Mexico
Mexico was the best-performing Latin American market in 2021 and our recent trip reinforced the reasons to remain bullish.
Housing Market Cooldown Will Only Lead to More Dysfunction
Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting provides the clearest sign yet that the central bank is treating inflation as a national emergency, with markets expecting a 0.75% interest-rate increase.
Americans Are Building Vacation-Home Empires With Easy-Money Loans
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Inflation Risk: Persistent or Transitory is the Wrong Question
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
Mid-Cap and Small-Cap Dividends Shine amid Volatility
In our third of three posts on small-cap valuations, let’s examine how focusing on dividend payers amid a volatile market backdrop has provided excess returns, with even lower valuations.
Luxury-Home Sales in US Plunge Most Since Start of the Pandemic
Luxury-home sales in the US are sinking as inflation, economic uncertainty and the stock-market slump push wealthy buyers to the sidelines.
How I Protect Against the Coming Market Crash
Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.
US Taxpayers Got Little From a College's Canceled Debt
In terms of a return on investment, it’s hard to imagine a worse outcome than the deal that American taxpayers got from Corinthian Colleges Inc., the for-profit college that closed and filed for bankruptcy in 2015.
Does This CDO Come in Green? With ESG Everywhere, Buyers Beware
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
Have We Kicked the Can to the End of the Road?
Investor sentiment expert Peter Atwater believes the bear market is only just beginning.
Parents Are Buying Homes for Kids Priced Out of the Housing Market
Even as the US real estate market shows signs of cooling, inflation and higher interest rates are making it difficult for young house hunters to buy properties — at least on their own.
Housing Is Correcting, Not Crashing
A cooler housing market isn't a bad outcome.
US Recession Is Avoidable If Fed Can ‘Thread the Needle’
While the danger of a downturn has risen as growth has slowed, most economists argue a contraction is unlikely in the immediate future, given the continued strength of the jobs market and the more than $2 trillion in excess cash on household balance sheets.
Recession Talk Is Exaggerated
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
Your Mortgage is Not a Hedge Against Inflation
Homeowners should take a total-balance-sheet view when evaluating options for their mortgage.
The Upside to Record High Gas Prices
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
A “Lost Decade” Ahead For Markets?
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets?
FOMC Inflation Test Coming
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
What Not to Do When a Financial Windfall Happens
What do you tell clients who suddenly find themselves receiving a large financial windfall?
Moving Averages: S&P Inched Up in May
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.01% after a loss of 8.8% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
March S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Rise Continues
With this morning's release of the March S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 2.4% increase month over month which is cut to 2.0% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.6% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index: Down 0.14% in March
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for March. U.S. house prices were up 1.5%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 19% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is down 0.14% in March and up 7.9% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
The Mother Of All Bear Markets
The bear has ended a long hibernation.
Moving Averages Month-End Preview: Up 0.64% in May
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
Rock and a Hard Place
It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy.
Texas Is Now Home To More Fortune 500 Companies Than Any Other State, And I’m Not Surprised
Texas now leads the nation in the number of Fortune 500 companies that are headquartered in the state.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in April
With the release of this morning's report on April's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.25% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 0% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.42% nominal and an increase from the -0.48% real change. The year-over-year metrics are -0.54% nominal and -6.41% real.
Pending Home Sales Slid in April
The National Association of Realtors released the March data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales slipped in April, as contract activity decreased for the sixth consecutive month."
Should You Be Afraid of a Bear Market?
"The bear is coming! The bear is coming!" Indeed, it is. Should you be worried?
Don’t Discount Structural Housing Trends
The recent surge in interest rates and inflation has put the record strength in housing under a microscope.
All Asset All Access: Managing Portfolios Amid Evolving Market Narratives
Research Affiliates discusses the intriguing long-term outlook for value stocks, and provides insights on the models that underpin its asset class forecasts.
What Does A Yellow Light Mean?
“What does a yellow light mean? Slow down!
Elevate Your Portfolio
John Paul Lech, Lead Manager of the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund, explains the potential value that unique real estate equities can offer emerging market-growth portfolios.
The Fed Girds For Battle
Our weekly commentaries provide Euro Pacific Capital's latest thinking on developments in the global marketplace.
Beware of Faux Financial Planning
Whenever I surf television cable news channels, I see the plethora of ads for financial planning. But they are run by companies that sell financial products or are owned by huge insurance companies.
Making Sense of the Recent Market Selloffs
Wylie Tollette, Head of Client Investment Solutions with Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, joins the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover, for a conversation on the recent equity market selloff.
Rock the Event Invite for 300% More Attendees
Advisors face an uphill battle to get attendance to their events.
Housing Defies Fed’s Campaign to Control Inflation
The seasonally adjusted median home sale price jumped 3.6% in April from March, the biggest increase in Zillow data dating to 2012. Inventory is starting to rise slightly, but it’s still so low that it’s vastly outstripped by demand, fueling housing appreciation.
A Little Harder
The Strategic Investment Conference wrapped up this week with another wave of strong, fascinating speakers and panels. Today I have more to share and, as you’ll see, the plot thickened considerably.
Money Managers Are Swooping In to Fill Manhattan’s Office Void
At a time when New York towers are struggling with high vacancies and many workers are still remote, money managers are seeking to accommodate growing staff and encourage in-person collaboration with trendier digs. Along with tech companies, they’re helping to fill part of the void left from employers giving up space -- even as Manhattan’s office supply continues to grow faster than demand.
Ask Brad: Adding Client Value in a Way Few Advisors Do
While I am not a practice management guru, an experience I had this past year warrants sharing. it led to adding value to your clients in a way few of you do.
Homeowners are Seeking Roommates to Help Pay Their Mortgages
With the average U.S. mortgage rate above 5% and home prices at record highs, homeownership feels increasingly out of reach, particularly for young, first-time buyers. To make it work, some are renting out rooms or basements and using the extra income to help offset their costs.
Stocks and Inflation
Until recently, inflation and interest rates had been on a secular downtrend after peaking in the early 1980s.
Jim Bianco: The Fed Will Crush Inflation and with it, the Stock Market
The Fed is on a single-minded mission to fight inflation, according to Jim Bianco. To do that, it will crush stock prices and home values.
Fed ‘Not Out of Bullets’ Yet to Control Inflation: Milken Update
The Milken Institute Global Conference continues in Beverly Hills, California, bringing together investors, dealmakers, power brokers and celebrities to discuss markets and megatrends. Academics, sports stars, entrepreneurs and politicians among the thousands coming to the Beverly Hilton for the event, which runs through Wednesday.
Avoid ‘Evil’ Bitcoin and Stay Sane: Investing Wisdom from Buffett and Munger
Warren Buffett has simple advice for investors as they stare down the worst inflation in decades: Invest in your own skills.
David Rosenberg: Recession in 2022 Will Drive a Bear Market
The U.S. economy will be in recession in the second half of this year, according to David Rosenberg. Equity Investors should brace for a 30% bear market decline.
Decentralization Is Winning the War Against Centralization
The push-and-pull between centralization and decentralization is the great contest of our times. And decentralization is winning out.
Liquidity Crisis in the Making – Japan's Role in Financial Instability
In propping up Japan's economy and financial markets, its central bank indirectly provided liquidity to the world's financial markets. But the BOJ could unleash a liquidity vacuum felt around the world.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.4% in Q1 2022
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q1 2022.
How To Use Alternative Assets For Refuge In Uncertain Times
With the world economy still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and now dealing with the Ukraine-Russia crisis, markets face a great deal of uncertainty.
‘Strong Recovery’: Resilient Consumers Ease U.S. Recession Worry
Bank CEOs kicked off earnings season with a consistent message that household finances and demand are in solid shape. Procter & Gamble Co., which counts Tide, Bounty and Pampers among its brands, has seen consumers reaching for premium-brand products. Bank of America Corp. and credit-card giant American Express Co. noted solid travel demand.
Which Asset Classes Protect Against Inflation?
After a multi-decade pause, the winds of inflation have picked up. Only TIPS have been an effective hedge against inflation. Other asset classes have failed to varying degrees.
Housing Market Set To Stall
Through higher mortgage rates, demand for US housing is beginning to wane.
Into the Fire
If you haven’t noticed—perhaps because you live on Mars—inflation is here. Not just in the US but almost everywhere. Prices for everyday goods and services, including necessities like food, are climbing rapidly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% in the 12 months through March… and we know it understates categories like housing.
Stock Bulls Wake Up From the Nightmare of a Dying Economy
The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, its best day since mid-March and only its second gain in seven sessions. The Russell 2000 Index of smaller firms added 2% in its strongest performance of April. Meanwhile, S&P sectors sensitive to the economy -- including consumer discretionary and real estate -- outperformed, with only energy closing lower.
The Case For Preferred Securities in a Rising Rate Environment
An often overlooked and underutilized fixed-income alternative, preferred securities offer investors compelling diversification and income opportunities in today's volatile, rising interest rate environment. With yields and returns comparable to high-yield fixed income, today's preferred securities have evolved into a distinct and attractive income-generating asset class.
Herding the Gray Rhinos
As we have noted in this space in the past, there is a lot of the world that cannot be captured by the most elegant and detailed of spreadsheets.
Real Estate Investing in an Uncertain Environment
Five commercial real estate sectors in markets across the globe have the potential to thrive in this environment.
This Is What Living With Long-Term High Inflation Feels Like
If you are under 45 and live in America or Europe, the odds are this past year has been your first real experience with inflation. Other than a blip in 2008, inflation has barely topped 3% in the last 30 years.
Cloudy with a Chance of Technological Breakthrough
Will the cloud drive massive increases in productivity and wealth – as the internet did before it? That is the central question asked by Mark Mills in his stunning new book, The Cloud Revolution.
The Biggest Risk to Portfolios Today
To start, let’s discuss what diversification is and what it is not.
Biden’s “Billionaires Tax” Affects More Than Billionaires
In his federal budget for fiscal year 2023 that he unveiled earlier this month, President Biden proposed a huge new tax increase on America’s wealthiest citizens.
Cheap is an Ugly Look
As much as I like money, I have found that being cheap looks bad, especially for a successful financial advisor.
Eleven Themes for the New Global Economy, Part 2
My column yesterday outlined six categories of winners and losers spawned by the current disruptive global economic environment as it transfers incomes and assets. Here are five more that result from the repricing of goods and assets.
Use Your Calendaring System to Qualify Prospects
Here’s how to customize your calendaring system so that you weed out unqualified prospects and spend your time talking to qualified ones.
‘Staggering’ Crypto Seizures Have Cops Struggling to Keep Up
The U.S. Marshals Service held 22 cryptocurrencies valued at about $919 million last December, according to spokeswoman Shaunteh Kelly. In February the U.S. made its largest financial seizure ever: about $3.6 billion in Bitcoin stolen during a 2016 hack of the Bitfinex currency exchange. And cryptocurrencies made up almost all—93%—of the assets confiscated by the Internal Revenue Service’s Criminal Investigation Division in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.
March Madness in the Bond Market
There was a little March Madness on Wall Street.
K2 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook: Second Quarter 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added pressure to the inflationary cycle that began in late 2020.