With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
US dollar cycles are long.
This morning's release of the December new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 616K, up 2.3% month-over-month from a revised 602K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 617K. The median home price is now at $442K.
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
December's ZHVI came in at $357,319, slightly up from the previous month by 0.01% and up 10.8% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.77% MoM and 3.02% YoY.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.33M was down 1.55% from the November reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.37M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.382M was slightly above the Investing.com forecast of 1.359M and is a 1.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.401M.
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Behind the five-decade low US unemployment rate of 3.5% lies a 2.6 million-person mystery.
Some of the biggest investors in US commercial real estate are looking to cash in before property values slide further.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 35 is up 4 from last month's 31, ending 12 consecutive monthly declines.
As a financial coach whose mission is to talk fee-only advisors “off the fence” of procrastination, I frequently answer two questions.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
As we start the year 2023, we are reminded of the profound poetry from the band, Echosmith, in the song, “Cool Kids.” It can teach us about what it takes to succeed in long-duration common stock investing currently.
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
Money managers for the ultra-wealthy are eschewing traditional private equity funds and betting directly on upstart companies.
Here are two lessons to double the value of your practice…
After a respite in 2021 and 2022, US retailers appear headed for a flurry of bankruptcies, with Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. leading the way.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
With inflation on the rise and the era of ultra-low interest rates over, financial markets will face a huge stress test in 2023.
U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Nikko Asset Management’s Global Investment Committee recently got together to discus their views heading into 2023.
Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
It’s hard to believe that the post-Covid world at one point was supposed to usher in a new consumer-led boom worthy of the “Roaring Twenties.”
Enjoy the latest Newsletter from Harold Evensky.
C6 Bank, the Brazilian digital lender backed by JPMorgan Chase & Co., is planning to double its loan portfolio to midsize firms as it diversifies beyond retail clients.
With this morning's release of the October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% decrease month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 9.2% YoY increase. The MoM is reduced to -1.1% after adjusting for inflation.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for October. U.S. house prices were unchanged from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 9.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is down 0.28% in October and up 1.5% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Bank of America Corp. clients bought $2.8 billion of US stocks last week, marking a sixth straight week of equity inflows at the bank, as they made heavy purchases of exchange-traded funds and sold tech shares, BofA strategists led by Jill Carey Hall wrote in a note Tuesday.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a 10th-straight month in November, extending a record decline as high mortgage rates continue to stifle affordability.
Buying a plot of land in rural America has never been so expensive. And that’s even with soaring interest rates.
Putting 60% of a portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds is supposed to hedge against both assets dropping simultaneously. But it didn’t pan out that way in 2022.
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
Investors have bid farewell to FOMO and are bracing for even more impact after a year in which profitless tech firms, special purpose acquisition companies and anything crypto-related went into a tailspin.
Capital represents the resources and labor used to produce goods and services.
Surging mortgage rates have brought the housing market down from its giddy highs earlier this year.
This wasn’t the year hoped for in the crypto and blockchain space, especially for stakeholders and investors.
Monetary policy is more like the World Cup than it is like mathematics or great literature.
This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. That means we will touch on a variety of topics, kind of a snapshot into where my mind is today. Get ready to travel the world but let’s start at home with the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks writes that the investment world may be experiencing the third major sea change of the last 50 years. Events in recent years – especially the spike in inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response – appear to have caused a reversal of the market conditions that prevailed after the Global Financial Crisis and for much of the last four decades. Howard discusses what this potentially new era could mean for lenders, especially bargain hunters.
There are two types of tax-advantaged accounts for saving for college expenses: A Uniform Transfers to Minors Act (UTMA) account and a 529 Plan. While both plans have their differences and advantages, consider both as viable options.
Emerging Markets (EM) assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
We’ve broken down nine of the best 529 plans.
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year.
The recent escalation in interest rates is squeezing household budgets.
Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t.
The pay negotiation season is looking increasingly fraught this year as workers fret about 8% inflation — and their job security.
An alpha-oriented approach.
From homeowners renting out spare rooms to publicly traded real estate investment trusts, landlords in colder areas of the US are bracing for their heating costs to soar this winter.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves together some of the themes he’s explored in 2022 to explain what he believes really matters in investing and what doesn’t. He discusses the disadvantages of short-term thinking, the difference between volatility and risk, and the one word he believes defines the essence of investment excellence.
We believe microcap stocks are an attractive asset class offering the opportunity to deliver outsized returns to investors and that they should be an important part of a diversified investment portfolio.
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
Pain is deepening across the US real estate industry. Two of the biggest players — Blackstone Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. — took steps this week to contend with weaker demand as the industry faces a rapidly cooling property market, rising interest rates and waning investor appetite.
Over the past 12 months, global container shipping rates have steadily declined to their long-term averages as supply chain snarls have receded and backups at ports have disappeared. Now, another segment of the cargo shipping industry is seeing day rates explode to record highs.
Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we usually mean the economy’s condition is changing—from expansion to recession, deflationary to inflationary, emerging to developing, etc. That’s different from changes in the economy’s actual structure.
In August 1979, President Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Chaiman of the Federal Reserve.
Global bonds rebounded in November, adding a record $2.8 trillion in market value, as investors bet that central banks are getting a grip on inflation. But how long the party lasts is another matter.
The past three years have shown us the downsides of depending too much on low interest rates, and how a better balance of fiscal and monetary policy can achieve a stronger economy.
Financial planning can be opaque, vague, and perceived as non-valuable by the consumer. I’m about to give financial planning a transparency makeover.
The US housing market is in an uneasy state of equilibrium.
MegaThreats, Nouriel Roubini’s latest full-length offering, puts his Olympic-class pessimism on full display.
All is not lost for equity capital market bankers.
Amazon.com Inc. spooked investors last month when it predicted the slowest holiday season growth in its history.
China is still far from open for business as usual.
And up and down.
Despite stubbornly high inflation and recessionary fears, spending by consumers may not slow down as we approach the busy holiday shopping season.
Xi’s move to ease China’s COVID policy should reduce obstacles to normal life in the country and set the stage for a gradual economic recovery.
Wall Street is struggling to whittle down the roughly $37.5 billion in risky corporate loans stuck on their books -- and the pile of so-called hung debt may be about to swell further as another large buyout financing stumbles.
In the wake of the last housing crash, online lenders came to dominate the mortgage market.
Real Estate
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
Charitable Giving, Looking Back and Forward
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
New Home Sales Up 2.3% in December
This morning's release of the December new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 616K, up 2.3% month-over-month from a revised 602K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 617K. The median home price is now at $442K.
Crypto Is Worth Fixing. Regulators Should Get Moving
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
The Case for the Federal Reserve to Pause Right Now
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
1099 Season – An Opportunity for Tax-Aware Advisors
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Ask Brad: Do You Rent or Own Your Advisory Practice?
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Existing-Home Sales: Retreat for 11th Consecutive Month
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Zillow Home Value Index: December Update
December's ZHVI came in at $357,319, slightly up from the previous month by 0.01% and up 10.8% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.77% MoM and 3.02% YoY.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 1.55% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.33M was down 1.55% from the November reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.37M.
New Residential Housing Starts Down 1.4% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.382M was slightly above the Investing.com forecast of 1.359M and is a 1.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.401M.
Global Bond Sales Off to Record Start of Nearly $600 Billion
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
EM Debt Outlook: China Takes Center Stage
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
Investors Risk Making a Classic Portfolio Mistake
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Job Market's 2.6 Million Missing People Unnerves Star Harvard Economist
Behind the five-decade low US unemployment rate of 3.5% lies a 2.6 million-person mystery.
Investors Seek to Pull $20 Billion From Core Real Estate Funds
Some of the biggest investors in US commercial real estate are looking to cash in before property values slide further.
NAHB Housing Market Index: "Builder Confidence Uptick Signals Turning Point for Housing Lies Ahead"
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 35 is up 4 from last month's 31, ending 12 consecutive monthly declines.
The Two Client Questions Advisors Must Be Able to Answer
As a financial coach whose mission is to talk fee-only advisors “off the fence” of procrastination, I frequently answer two questions.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
Not the Cool Kids
As we start the year 2023, we are reminded of the profound poetry from the band, Echosmith, in the song, “Cool Kids.” It can teach us about what it takes to succeed in long-duration common stock investing currently.
Equity Outlook: The Times They Are A-Changin’
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
The Year in Review: Wealthspire Advisors 2022 Q4 Review
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
The Fed Wants Lower Stock Prices
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
Equities Are Searching for Clarity
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
Family Offices Bypass Private Equity Funds to Make Bets Directly
Money managers for the ultra-wealthy are eschewing traditional private equity funds and betting directly on upstart companies.
Ask Brad: How to Double the Value of Your Practice
Here are two lessons to double the value of your practice…
The Pandemic Was Good for Retailers. What Happens Next?
After a respite in 2021 and 2022, US retailers appear headed for a flurry of bankruptcies, with Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. leading the way.
Federal Reserve Continues Quest to Slow U.S. Economy
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
Alternative Investments: The Case for Real Estate
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
The Looming Financial Contagion
With inflation on the rise and the era of ultra-low interest rates over, financial markets will face a huge stress test in 2023.
Stocks Higher to Pare Early-Year Losses
U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Nikko Asset Management Global Investment Committee’s Outlook
Nikko Asset Management’s Global Investment Committee recently got together to discus their views heading into 2023.
Moving Averages: S&P Down 5.9% in December, Down 19.4% in 2022
Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.
Moving Averages Month-End Preview: Down 5.7% in December
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Roaring Twenties Are Now Over. Time to Get Real.
It’s hard to believe that the post-Covid world at one point was supposed to usher in a new consumer-led boom worthy of the “Roaring Twenties.”
NewsLetter - December 2022
Enjoy the latest Newsletter from Harold Evensky.
JPMorgan-Backed Digital Bank C6 to Double Loans to Midsize Firms
C6 Bank, the Brazilian digital lender backed by JPMorgan Chase & Co., is planning to double its loan portfolio to midsize firms as it diversifies beyond retail clients.
October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues Decline
With this morning's release of the October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% decrease month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 9.2% YoY increase. The MoM is reduced to -1.1% after adjusting for inflation.
FHFA House Price Index Flat in October
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for October. U.S. house prices were unchanged from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 9.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is down 0.28% in October and up 1.5% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Bank of America Clients Pour the Most Cash Into ETFs Since 2017
Bank of America Corp. clients bought $2.8 billion of US stocks last week, marking a sixth straight week of equity inflows at the bank, as they made heavy purchases of exchange-traded funds and sold tech shares, BofA strategists led by Jill Carey Hall wrote in a note Tuesday.
US Previously Owned Home Sales Weaken Further as High Rates Take Toll
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a 10th-straight month in November, extending a record decline as high mortgage rates continue to stifle affordability.
US Farmland Escapes Real Estate Slump as Prices Soar to Record
Buying a plot of land in rural America has never been so expensive. And that’s even with soaring interest rates.
Will the 60/40 Portfolio Stage a Comeback in 2023?
Putting 60% of a portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds is supposed to hedge against both assets dropping simultaneously. But it didn’t pan out that way in 2022.
The Federal Reserve is Killing Capitalism
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
Farewell FOMO! Brace for Hard Landings Next Year.
Investors have bid farewell to FOMO and are bracing for even more impact after a year in which profitless tech firms, special purpose acquisition companies and anything crypto-related went into a tailspin.
Capital Neglect is Killing Capitalism
Capital represents the resources and labor used to produce goods and services.
Housing Market Doesn't Need Much for Buyers to Return
Surging mortgage rates have brought the housing market down from its giddy highs earlier this year.
The 2023 Web3 Investment Outlook
This wasn’t the year hoped for in the crypto and blockchain space, especially for stakeholders and investors.
For the Fed, a Red Card From the Seventies
Monetary policy is more like the World Cup than it is like mathematics or great literature.
Higher for Longer
This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. That means we will touch on a variety of topics, kind of a snapshot into where my mind is today. Get ready to travel the world but let’s start at home with the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
Sea Change
In his latest memo, Howard Marks writes that the investment world may be experiencing the third major sea change of the last 50 years. Events in recent years – especially the spike in inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response – appear to have caused a reversal of the market conditions that prevailed after the Global Financial Crisis and for much of the last four decades. Howard discusses what this potentially new era could mean for lenders, especially bargain hunters.
How an UTMA Compares to a 529 Plan
There are two types of tax-advantaged accounts for saving for college expenses: A Uniform Transfers to Minors Act (UTMA) account and a 529 Plan. While both plans have their differences and advantages, consider both as viable options.
2023 Outlook for Emerging Markets, “A year of Two halves”
Emerging Markets (EM) assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
The Best 529 Plans for 2023 and Beyond
We’ve broken down nine of the best 529 plans.
The Best Books of 2022
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year.
Mortgages May Force Central Banks To Back Off
The recent escalation in interest rates is squeezing household budgets.
Recession Scale
Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t.
Workers Have High Hopes for Pay Hikes Next Year. Perhaps Too High
The pay negotiation season is looking increasingly fraught this year as workers fret about 8% inflation — and their job security.
EM Corporate Debt ESG Integration
An alpha-oriented approach.
Surging Heating Costs Squeeze Landlords and Threaten Higher Rents
From homeowners renting out spare rooms to publicly traded real estate investment trusts, landlords in colder areas of the US are bracing for their heating costs to soar this winter.
What Really Matters?
In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves together some of the themes he’s explored in 2022 to explain what he believes really matters in investing and what doesn’t. He discusses the disadvantages of short-term thinking, the difference between volatility and risk, and the one word he believes defines the essence of investment excellence.
Value Creation In Microcaps Through Constructive Activism
We believe microcap stocks are an attractive asset class offering the opportunity to deliver outsized returns to investors and that they should be an important part of a diversified investment portfolio.
The Alternative Tech Stack
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
Why Blackstone’s $69 Billion Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead for Real Estate Industry
Pain is deepening across the US real estate industry. Two of the biggest players — Blackstone Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. — took steps this week to contend with weaker demand as the industry faces a rapidly cooling property market, rising interest rates and waning investor appetite.
Crude Tanker Rates Could Reach a Jaw-Dropping $200,000 a Day Next Year
Over the past 12 months, global container shipping rates have steadily declined to their long-term averages as supply chain snarls have receded and backups at ports have disappeared. Now, another segment of the cargo shipping industry is seeing day rates explode to record highs.
The Economy Is a-Changin’
Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we usually mean the economy’s condition is changing—from expansion to recession, deflationary to inflationary, emerging to developing, etc. That’s different from changes in the economy’s actual structure.
2022 vs. 1979
In August 1979, President Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Chaiman of the Federal Reserve.
Bond Market Bulls Are $2.8 Trillion Better Off After Rebound
Global bonds rebounded in November, adding a record $2.8 trillion in market value, as investors bet that central banks are getting a grip on inflation. But how long the party lasts is another matter.
Lesson Learned: Central Bankers Can’t Manage Economies All by Themselves
The past three years have shown us the downsides of depending too much on low interest rates, and how a better balance of fiscal and monetary policy can achieve a stronger economy.
Financial Planning Needs a Makeover!
Financial planning can be opaque, vague, and perceived as non-valuable by the consumer. I’m about to give financial planning a transparency makeover.
Rising Inventory Will Be the Housing Market’s Next Problem
The US housing market is in an uneasy state of equilibrium.
Doomster in Chief
MegaThreats, Nouriel Roubini’s latest full-length offering, puts his Olympic-class pessimism on full display.
IPO Hole Is Partly Plugged by $24 Billion Burst in Share Sales
All is not lost for equity capital market bankers.
Amazon Poised to Benefit This Season as Inflation Fears Ease
Amazon.com Inc. spooked investors last month when it predicted the slowest holiday season growth in its history.
Cracks In China’s Zero-COVID Policy?
China is still far from open for business as usual.
Up and Down
And up and down.
U.S. Consumers Defy The Odds Ahead Of The Holiday Shopping Season
Despite stubbornly high inflation and recessionary fears, spending by consumers may not slow down as we approach the busy holiday shopping season.
On the Path to Pragmatism
Xi’s move to ease China’s COVID policy should reduce obstacles to normal life in the country and set the stage for a gradual economic recovery.
Wall Street’s $38 Billion Loan Backlog Curbs New Bank Lending
Wall Street is struggling to whittle down the roughly $37.5 billion in risky corporate loans stuck on their books -- and the pile of so-called hung debt may be about to swell further as another large buyout financing stumbles.
Mortgage Lenders Vie to Be 'Last Man Standing' as Rates Soar
In the wake of the last housing crash, online lenders came to dominate the mortgage market.