With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 140.1%, down from 146.7% the previous quarter.
As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
US market structure was back in the news recently with several stocks experiencing irregular price movements on the morning of January 24.
Three decades after helping give birth to the ETF industry, Morgan Stanley is officially back in the game in what could be a milestone moment for the investing world.
The Federal Reserve slowed its drive to rein in inflation and said further interest-rate hikes are in store as officials debate when to end their most aggressive tightening of credit in four decades.
The market has high hopes for the Fed, however, comparing this to the Fed’s own expectations, we see a very different narrative.
In anticipation of tomorrow’s rate decision, we saw another indicator today that the Federal Reserve has been successful in stemming the tide of inflation.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
We are closing in on what we think may be the question of the decade. If a majority of stock market capitalization in the US is passive or indexed, does this cause problems for stock markets?
RIAs will be more financially successful, will retain and attract more investment assets, and will produce superior financial results for their retiree clients when they embrace new thinking that begins with the acknowledgment that, in practice, the safe withdrawal rate is a fiction.
The headline number of 107.1 was a decrease of 1.9 from the upwardly revised final reading of 109.0 for December.
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% decrease month over month. The MoM is reduced to -1.2% after adjusting for inflation. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 7.7% YoY increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices decreased by 0.1% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 8.2% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is was unchanged in November and up 1% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now.
The US federal budget is on an unsustainable path…but not for the reasons that most people think.
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for December was published on Friday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.05% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.02% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) dropped to 4.42%, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Elon Musk’s response to wavering demand and recession risk is pretty clear: slash prices, keep increasing capacity and try to continue growing even if it means sacrificing profit margin in the short term.
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
The US Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates due next week will be closely watched to gauge the department’s view on how the debt-ceiling drama will unfold.
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
US dollar cycles are long.
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
Formed in 2005 to serve educational and resource needs of professional business advisors, the Exit Planning Institute is a trendsetter in the field of exit planning for business owners across the globe. It is the only organization that offers the Certified Exit Planning Advisor Program (CEPA) and qualifies for continuing education credits with 12 major professional associations, making it the most widely endorsed professional exit planning program in the world.
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
Here are the three ways to get 2023 off to a great start so you can deliver even more massive value than ever before.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
If you are competing with the best of the best, how do you rise above the competition?
Microsoft Corp. is investing $10 billion in OpenAI, whose artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT has lit up the internet since its introduction in November, amassing more than a million users within days and touching off a fresh debate over the role of AI in the workplace.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
A fiscal disruption could do great damage to the U.S. economy.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
It’s as close to a sure-thing bet as markets ever offer. When the S&P 500 falls 20% or more, a recession is close behind
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell in December to the slowest pace in over a decade, capping one of the housing market’s worst years on record amid a rapid jump in mortgage rates.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
The greatest financial risk for depleting retirement resources is an unexpected and lengthy stay in a long-term healthcare facility.
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
Here are seven mindset shifts to stretch your thinking to generate only ideal clients this year.
The US is headed for yet another standoff over the federal debt limit. House Republicans say they won’t raise the arbitrary cap on total borrowing unless President Joe Biden agrees to budget cuts.
After 30-year mortgage rates surged past 7% in October, a decline to near 6% in recent weeks has made the start of 2023 look less awful than some had feared.
US retail sales fell by the most in a year and business equipment production slumped, raising concerns that the economy is losing momentum under the weight of tighter Federal Reserve policy.
Behind the five-decade low US unemployment rate of 3.5% lies a 2.6 million-person mystery.
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
We believe it is important to keep you informed on the latest proposals and regulations impacting the retirement industry, as well as implications to your business.
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
Nearly seven years have passed since the publication of our 2016 paper “How Can ‘Smart Beta’ Go Horribly Wrong?”
Advisors must redesign their entire approach, starting from the client's point of view.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -32.9 was a decrease of 21.7 from the previous month's -11.2. This was the index's lowest reading since May 2020 and the fifth worst reading in survey history. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of -8.7.
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
The omnibus spending bill puts our retirement system on an even less sustainable basis.
The process by which advisors select a TAMP is the latest illustration of fiduciary failure, and the SEC has responded with ominous rulemaking that will have questionable value to our profession.
Welcome to tax season, TikTok edition.
Big global banks are eying some of the world’s most fragile countries for a new experiment in financial engineering: debt relief in exchange for environmental protections.
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
Since we gave up on the idea that high inflation would be transitory, the hope has been that we would manage a soft landing: Inflation would melt back to 2% without doing too much harm to the labor market or economic growth.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. soared Wednesday, more than wiping out a 46% drop last week and sparking a rally in other so-called meme stocks.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.45%, down from 7.11% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.71%, down from 5.96% the previous month.
Small Cap
Market Cap to GDP: Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 140.1%, down from 146.7% the previous quarter.
The FOMC Won’t Blink
As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
Don’t Call This a Flash Crash!
US market structure was back in the news recently with several stocks experiencing irregular price movements on the morning of January 24.
Morgan Stanley Makes Historic ETF Comeback With Six New Funds
Three decades after helping give birth to the ETF industry, Morgan Stanley is officially back in the game in what could be a milestone moment for the investing world.
Fed Slows Rate Hikes, Signals Further Increases Are Coming
The Federal Reserve slowed its drive to rein in inflation and said further interest-rate hikes are in store as officials debate when to end their most aggressive tightening of credit in four decades.
What to Watch
The market has high hopes for the Fed, however, comparing this to the Fed’s own expectations, we see a very different narrative.
Is the Fed Winning the Inflation War?
In anticipation of tomorrow’s rate decision, we saw another indicator today that the Federal Reserve has been successful in stemming the tide of inflation.
Earnings Season Takes Center Stage
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
A Sharpe Rebuke
We are closing in on what we think may be the question of the decade. If a majority of stock market capitalization in the US is passive or indexed, does this cause problems for stock markets?
The Fiction of Safe Withdrawal Rates
RIAs will be more financially successful, will retain and attract more investment assets, and will produce superior financial results for their retiree clients when they embrace new thinking that begins with the acknowledgment that, in practice, the safe withdrawal rate is a fiction.
Consumer Confidence Declines in January
The headline number of 107.1 was a decrease of 1.9 from the upwardly revised final reading of 109.0 for December.
November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues Decline
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% decrease month over month. The MoM is reduced to -1.2% after adjusting for inflation. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 7.7% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.1% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices decreased by 0.1% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 8.2% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is was unchanged in November and up 1% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
4Q 2022 GMO Quarterly Letter
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
Top Bond Fund Bets Markets Are Wrong on Rates, Again
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
Stocks Decreasing to Start the Busy Week
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
The Labor Market Is Still Historically Tight
With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now.
Debt Limit Drama
The US federal budget is on an unsustainable path…but not for the reasons that most people think.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Why Have Equal-Weighted Portfolios Outperformed the Market?
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
Stocks Are Poised to Hit New Lows This Year, Survey of Investors Shows
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
PCE Price Index: December Headline at 5% YoY
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for December was published on Friday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.05% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.02% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) dropped to 4.42%, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Panasonic Sees Potential for Another EV Battery Plant in US
Elon Musk’s response to wavering demand and recession risk is pretty clear: slash prices, keep increasing capacity and try to continue growing even if it means sacrificing profit margin in the short term.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Debt-Ceiling Saga Puts the Treasury’s Financing Estimates Under Scrutiny
The US Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates due next week will be closely watched to gauge the department’s view on how the debt-ceiling drama will unfold.
An Inside Look at the GDP Q4 Advance Estimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
Charitable Giving, Looking Back and Forward
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
Five Things to Watch For in the Debt-Ceiling Talks
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
We Asked ChatGPT to Make a Market-Beating ETF. Here’s What Happened
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
China Reopening an Insignificant Factor for Germany So Far
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
How to Help Clients with Exit Planning
Formed in 2005 to serve educational and resource needs of professional business advisors, the Exit Planning Institute is a trendsetter in the field of exit planning for business owners across the globe. It is the only organization that offers the Certified Exit Planning Advisor Program (CEPA) and qualifies for continuing education credits with 12 major professional associations, making it the most widely endorsed professional exit planning program in the world.
The Perversion Afflicting Value Investors
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
How To Make 2023 The Best Year Ever
Here are the three ways to get 2023 off to a great start so you can deliver even more massive value than ever before.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
What it Takes to Be an Elite Advisor
If you are competing with the best of the best, how do you rise above the competition?
Microsoft Invests $10 Billion in ChatGPT Maker OpenAI
Microsoft Corp. is investing $10 billion in OpenAI, whose artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT has lit up the internet since its introduction in November, amassing more than a million users within days and touching off a fresh debate over the role of AI in the workplace.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
The Crypto Crackdown Is Just Getting Started
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
CB LEI: 10th Consecutive Decline in December, Recession Signal Continues
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Common and Unique Threads of European Inflation
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
Why I’m Waiting for the Fed to Pivot
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Debt Ceiling Drama
A fiscal disruption could do great damage to the U.S. economy.
Fortune Doesn’t Always Favor the Bold: The Perils of Concentrated Stock Positions
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
There's an Upbeat Signal Buried Beneath the Stock Market's Surface
It’s as close to a sure-thing bet as markets ever offer. When the S&P 500 falls 20% or more, a recession is close behind
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Existing Home Sales Slide to Cap Biggest Annual Drop Since 2008
Sales of previously owned US homes fell in December to the slowest pace in over a decade, capping one of the housing market’s worst years on record amid a rapid jump in mortgage rates.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Existing-Home Sales: Retreat for 11th Consecutive Month
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Quarterly Letter – January 2023
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
Will Your Clients' Retirement Resources Cover Long-Term Care?
The greatest financial risk for depleting retirement resources is an unexpected and lengthy stay in a long-term healthcare facility.
Mid-Cap ETFs’ Moment
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
Seven Mindset Shifts to Grow Your Practice
Here are seven mindset shifts to stretch your thinking to generate only ideal clients this year.
Do Away With a Debt Ceiling That Serves No Purpose
The US is headed for yet another standoff over the federal debt limit. House Republicans say they won’t raise the arbitrary cap on total borrowing unless President Joe Biden agrees to budget cuts.
Homebuilders Are Signaling Buyers to Wait a Little Longer
After 30-year mortgage rates surged past 7% in October, a decline to near 6% in recent weeks has made the start of 2023 look less awful than some had feared.
Weak US Retail Sales, Factory Data Heighten Recession Concerns
US retail sales fell by the most in a year and business equipment production slumped, raising concerns that the economy is losing momentum under the weight of tighter Federal Reserve policy.
Job Market's 2.6 Million Missing People Unnerves Star Harvard Economist
Behind the five-decade low US unemployment rate of 3.5% lies a 2.6 million-person mystery.
Asia: The Early Innings of Innovation?
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
Retail Sales Down 1.15% in December, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
US Retirement Legislation and Regulation Bulletin: Fourth Quarter 2022
We believe it is important to keep you informed on the latest proposals and regulations impacting the retirement industry, as well as implications to your business.
Time to Buy the Dip In Energy?
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
Revisiting Our “Horribly Wrong” Paper: That Was Then, This Is Now
Nearly seven years have passed since the publication of our 2016 paper “How Can ‘Smart Beta’ Go Horribly Wrong?”
To Deliver a Transformative Experience Think Like a Client
Advisors must redesign their entire approach, starting from the client's point of view.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Contracted Sharply in January
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -32.9 was a decrease of 21.7 from the previous month's -11.2. This was the index's lowest reading since May 2020 and the fifth worst reading in survey history. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of -8.7.
Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Punchbowl Is Gone
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Unfazed by Airline Grounding, Investors Look Ahead to Earnings
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
Unsecure
The omnibus spending bill puts our retirement system on an even less sustainable basis.
The SEC Outsourcing Rule and Our Failure as Fiduciaries
The process by which advisors select a TAMP is the latest illustration of fiduciary failure, and the SEC has responded with ominous rulemaking that will have questionable value to our profession.
Tax Season Gets a Gen Z Revamp on TikTok
Welcome to tax season, TikTok edition.
Wall Street's New ESG Money-Maker Promises Nature Conservation - With a Catch
Big global banks are eying some of the world’s most fragile countries for a new experiment in financial engineering: debt relief in exchange for environmental protections.
The Year in Review: Wealthspire Advisors 2022 Q4 Review
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
A Soft Landing Won't Mean the Economy Is Safe
Since we gave up on the idea that high inflation would be transitory, the hope has been that we would manage a soft landing: Inflation would melt back to 2% without doing too much harm to the labor market or economic growth.
Bed Bath & Beyond Surges as Meme Rally Sweeps Up Carvana, AMC
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. soared Wednesday, more than wiping out a 46% drop last week and sparking a rally in other so-called meme stocks.
Consumer Price Index: December Headline at 6.45%, Down from November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.45%, down from 7.11% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.71%, down from 5.96% the previous month.