Last week we looked at the Federal Reserve’s inflation problem. This week, let’s look at the other half of its mandate: maximum employment.
The yield on the 10-year note finished September 25, 2026 at 5.17% while the 2-year note ended at 4.81%.
US stocks climbed as oil and Treasury yields pulled back from the recent surges ahead of data on inflation expectations.
The exchange-traded fund (ETF) market is pacing toward a record-breaking year in 2026, driven by an unprecedented wave of new product launches and historic capital inflows.
Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.
This year has presented no shortage of challenges for investors. Geopolitical conflict, trade tensions, rising energy prices, shifting interest rate expectations and an increasingly active political backdrop have each taken turns dominating the headlines. Yet despite these obstacles, the economy has continued to expand, corporate profits have marched higher and markets have climbed one wall of worry after another.
Trump Accounts are now available nationwide. Explore how the new tax-advantaged accounts work, who can contribute and key considerations for families evaluating their long-term savings options.
AI has changed coding, mathematics, and weather forecasting. They all have a vast pool of available training data, rapid feedback, and clear right and wrong answers. These keep models moored to reality, not spiraling off to disaster as the result of compounding small errors.
Investment bubbles are inherently dangerous beasts. Like a natural Ponzi scheme, an investment bubble needs to draw in ever larger amounts of capital to keep it going. Nothing attracts capital like apparent success, so an inflating bubble that is creating fortunes for those who got in early will inevitably draw in capital. Unfortunately, this means the amount of money lost when the bubble bursts can outstrip the gains created on its way up.
The appeal of a portfolio of individual bonds for many investors are the known qualities that they can provide: a known stream of cash flow, a known redemption value, a known redemption date, and a known yield; all of which are locked in at the time of purchase.
LPL Research analyzes S&P 500 margin expansion, assessing how much is structural versus cyclical and what that means for future earnings forecasts.
It’s really starting to feel like autumn now. August PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales are in the books, the September FOMC meeting is out of the way, and we can now look forward to Jobs Week on Wall Street. Football is in full swing, and earnings season begins before you know it, with Pepsi (PEP) posting results on Thursday, October 8, followed the next morning by Delta (DAL).
While the AI trade absorbs nearly all available investor attention, owning energy covers our absolute risk while creating the risk budget to cover the AI relative risk more effectively.
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is more than a regional milestone — it is a shift in competition among U.S. capital markets. After months of anticipation, the TXSE reached a major landmark last week as Texas Capital’s TXS and OILT ETFs became its first primary listings, followed a day later by PWRX as the first new ETF to launch on the exchange.
In late January, the week before Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced a $1.6 billion government commitment to fund a US magnet maker, bankers at his former financial services company, now run by his sons, were busy earning fees raising $1.5 billion more for the company from private investors.
Dividend growth is back, and it’s fair to say that outperformance among dividend growth stocks may simply be overdue amid a shift in U.S. equity market leadership beyond a small group of mega-cap technology companies.
Share buybacks are when a company purchases its own shares, reducing the total number of shares on the market. Oftentimes, these buybacks occur on the open market, but companies may also look to buy shares from existing shareholders as well.
A popular trade in US Treasuries has shrunk to its smallest size in over two years, in what Wall Street strategists say reflects fewer dislocations in the bond market for hedge funds to exploit.
For most of this year, investors have flocked into small caps to diversify away from the concentrated AI trade. Rising interest rates are threatening to put a damper on that.
Family offices now see inflation as their No. 1 worry, underscoring how rising costs of goods and services are vexing even the richest investors.
This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting S&P 500 earnings to grow about 15%.
Early this week, I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn’t cheap, but it was well worth it.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
As summer officially gives way to fall on September 22, it's not just the weather that's changing. The global monetary policy landscape is shifting as well. After spending much of the past two years focused on supporting growth, central banks have increasingly turned their attention back to inflation, especially with oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel.
This week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was largely in line with expectations. While many market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) members anticipated another rate increase later this year, we remained in the camp that viewed the move as likely the last increase before the Fed adopted a wait-and-see approach, allowing geopolitical developments to stabilize and recent inflationary base effects related to the US-Iran war to fade.
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through September 21, 2026.
Confused by the Singularity and the impending AI apocalypse? Theoretical physicist turned science writer Adam Becker is here to help with “More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley’s Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity,” a jaundiced tour d’horizon of the peculiar end-times stories that IT visionaries — particularly the richest and most powerful ones — tell themselves.
The combination of prior Fed inaction followed by relatively significant market tightening raises a question: If long-maturity yields were already weighing on economic activity, did the bond market already do the Fed’s job?
The K-shaped economy is real, and it is old. What changed isn’t the shape of the economy; it’s just that the media found a narrative that gets lots of clicks and views, and we let headlines do our thinking for us.
Throughout this Indexing Redefined series, we explored how traditional market-capitalization indexing ties portfolio weights directly to stock prices, creating hidden concentration risks. Furthermore, we discussed how fundamental indexing offers a disciplined alternative by weighting companies according to their real-world economic footprint. In this final installment, we address the dilemma investors face in highly concentrated equity markets.
Bitcoin surged near $85,000 to its highest since late-January, extending a sharp rebound as falling oil prices and a broader return of risk appetite helped cryptocurrencies move past setbacks on US crypto legislation and monetary policy.
US and Chinese officials offered upbeat assessments of their talks on artificial intelligence, trade and investment, signaling a mutual desire to steady ties ahead of this week’s summit between leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Throughout this Indexing Redefined series, we explored how traditional market-capitalization indexing ties portfolio weights directly to stock prices, creating hidden concentration risks.
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
Janus Henderson Investors today announced two senior investment appointments that will further deepen the firm’s leadership across its global equities franchise.
Open any market commentary today and the conversation is dominated by giants. Mega-cap technology companies command outsized shares of major indexes, and the private markets tell a similar story, as we watch companies increasingly staying private well past the point where they once would have gone public.
Nominal retail sales were up 1.2% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year in August. After adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.8% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
Artificial intelligence is advancing at a stunning, and perhaps uncontrolled speed. Last week, Evan Hubinger, the Alignment Science Lead at the AI company Anthropic estimated a greater than 10% chance that AI could eliminate humanity within a decade. Jakub Pachocki, Chief Scientist at OpenAI, recently observed 'The core problem in AI research is that of alignment - getting the AI to ‘try to do the right thing’ by human standards…
As ETF strategies continue to expand into new asset classes and structures, the SEC has been taking a closer look at how some of these products fit within existing regulations.
For decades, equity investors have relied on a foundational promise from Corporate America: the continuous return of surplus cash. Dividends and share repurchases represent the two primary ways by which companies deliver tangible value back to shareholders. Yet as we navigate the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026, both channels are signaling a distinct shift toward restraint.
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
A rising S&P 500® might suggest few opportunities for tax-loss harvesting. But unusually wide dispersion among individual stocks is telling a different story—and potentially creating new opportunities for direct indexing.
Most people have had that moment when they’re walking along outside, enjoying a sunny day, and suddenly something long and twisty on the ground catches their eye. Before they even know what’s happening, their whole body jumps and their brain shouts, “Snake!”
Janus Henderson launched a new international equity ETF on Wednesday, according to a Janus Henderson press release. The Janus Henderson International Core Alpha ETF (JINT) seeks long-term growth of capital across developed markets outside the U.S.
U.S. headline retail sales rebounded in August, up 1.2% to $773.9 in August, while core retail sales increased by 1.4%.
In my years working with advisors, teams, and firms, I’ve had to confront the topic of compensation many times. It’s hard to grow when you don’t have the right incentives in place to encourage people to focus on actually doing it and hard to team effectively when people may think they are being treated unfairly.
Single-stock leveraged ETFs were unusual when they first arrived in the U.S. market just four years ago. Today, it might be hard to find a stock without one. Issuers are aggressively pushing beyond megacap tech into niche equities, pre-IPO registrations, and even experimenting with leverage levels and frequency.
With so much attention focused on what the Fed might do at its policy meeting this week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should policymakers hike rates as the market now expects. LPL Research had been characterizing the rate decision as a coin flip until Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting and the strong August jobs report.
From the 2020 pandemic to today’s oil shocks, we’re often reminded in recent years that inflation can flare up unexpectedly. We’ve also likely entered an era in which higher inflation may linger for some time. As a result, bond-heavy and income-oriented investors may need to shore up their inflation defense, which we think should combine strategic positioning with tactical maneuvering.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August was generally in line with expectations. However, a slightly hotter-than-expected core CPI reading buoyed expectations of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting in September.
A week of rising oil prices and higher interest rates sent stocks lower across the board as investors increasingly priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin a rate-hiking cycle at its September 16 meeting. Following the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, futures markets implied an 88 percent probability that the Fed will, or at least should, raise rates at next week's meeting.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
In our final chapter for this series, we will dig into that exact question. Unfortunately, there is good and bad news, and it can be summed up in a single sentence.
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
As policymakers adapt to new leadership, navigate a challenging geopolitical backdrop and contend with meaningful internal debate over the path of interest rates, the stakes remain high. Below, we discuss what to expect from next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and provide perspective on the recent rise of Treasury yields to multi-year highs.
In Part III, the focus will center on practical applications of this discipline. In particular, how advisors can integrate the methodology into modern asset allocation, and why it offers an evolutionary leap for passive investing that’s available through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
As I go through the strengths and weaknesses of each model, my goals are to point out where the models are strong and to point out potential weaknesses such as conflicts of interest, which are important to be aware of in working with clients. Although we are all fiduciaries, financial incentives matter because we are all human. I know great advisors across all fee models.
The list of challenges confronting Wall Street piled up this week. Oil firmly above $100. Inflation refusing to disappear. A defiant bond market that all but dared Scott Bessent to bring more policy firepower.
Some investors are questioning how much further this year’s rally can run with the S&P 500 Index up 12.3% through the first eight months of the year. Encouragingly, history suggests that strong starts tend to persist; when the S&P 500 has gained more than 10% through August it has advanced from September through December in 25 of 28 instances, an 89% positive hit rate.
The recent employment report provided reassurance that the US labor market remains resilient. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August; the previous two months’ gains were revised higher by a combined 55,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.
One or a few high-performing stocks can provide a big boost to portfolio values. But they’re hard to come by and often struggle to maintain their momentum over time. Because these stocks increase portfolio concentration, investors must balance the risk of overexposure against the tax cost of diversifying. A thoughtful, tax-aware plan may help bring portfolios back in line.
Don't let September's macro headline noise fool you. Today’s economic backdrop won’t likely trigger a broad market freeze like 2022, but there will be winners and losers. Cash-rich mega-caps, AI infrastructure plays, and scaled market leaders (the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI tier) command their own gravity.
U.S. equities were little changed on the week – the S&P 500 rose 0.1 per cent, the NASDAQ gained 0.4 per cent, and the Russell 2000 added 0.12 per cent – but those modest moves masked a far more turbulent week in the global rates markets.
Inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, as it did for the 12 months ending July. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with economist estimates.
With a handful of stocks attracting most of the recent headlines, it’s easy to forget that investors continue to find opportunities across a broad range of sectors.
History suggests slower Fed tightening tends to support stronger market returns and firmer economic growth, while faster hikes typically deepen drawdowns.
Portfolio Managers Jonathan Coleman and Aaron Schaechterle outline why they believe momentum in small-cap stocks relative to large caps can continue, highlighting favorable earnings growth prospects, appealing relative valuations, and other structural tailwinds.
2026 began with 10-year Treasuries right around 4%, which many viewed as a comfortable place. The comfort came from some simple math—2 plus 2 equals 4. The long-term real yield on the 10-year Treasury was around 2% and the Fed’s inflation target is 2%.
Benchmark-Free has been a flagship strategy for half of GMO's history. As we approach our 50th anniversary in 2027, Ben Inker reflects on our first 25 years of Benchmark-Free investing.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 0.4% in August, better than expectations.
For much of the past decade and a half, investors saw little reason to favor bonds over equities. Yields were low and returns were muted, especially in passive strategies. Equities seemed to offer a much clearer path to long-term capital appreciation. For many investors, bonds were, at best, ballast: a dull but generally stable component of a broader portfolio. Then the experience of 2022 had investors questioning even that view, as areas of high quality fixed income generated equity-like losses that eroded much of the prior decade’s real return.
As students get closer to making a final college decision, the last two years of high school are particularly important. Parents will want to review their financial strategy to meet the costs of college, including a review of current savings, financial and merit aid, scholarships and loan options.
LPL Research analyzes rising U.S. debt, Treasury yields, and fiscal trends, highlighting implications for markets and investors.
Every year, Americans send hundreds of billions of dollars of retirement savings to life insurers in return for annuities that promise a future income. It’s an industry built on trust and prudence.
Equity markets can be as difficult to forecast as the weather, yet investors often assume future return patterns will predictably follow recent trends. In today’s turbulent market climate, we think fundamental research can help investors build conviction in long-term company forecasts that may be obscured by the AI-driven cloud cover.
Labor Day signals more than summer’s end. It marks a return of focus to the economic and market forces that will shape the remainder of the year. From resilient earnings and record AI spending to rising bond yields and the midterm elections, there is no shortage of forces shaping the market outlook.
If you’re planning on driving anywhere this Labor Day weekend, be prepared to pay the highest gas prices ever for this time of year. The national average hit $4.14 per gallon on Thursday, an approximately 30% increase from last year, according to AAA.
The S&P 500 gained 2.7% in August 2026 and four indexes hit all-time highs, but only five of eleven sectors rose and the Fed’s speech at Jackson Hole put a rate hike back on the table.
The SEC wants to rescind a 15-year-old rule curbing political donations by investment advisers, aiming to ease compliance burdens for RIAs.
Direct venture investment rewards a rigorous, patient approach. The companies that generate exceptional returns tend to combine all three factors above: genuine growth momentum, clear category ownership, and strong institutional support.
Stock investors are caught between the pull of strong earnings and mounting macroeconomic risks, with key events carrying binary outcomes that argue for some protection.
Around 2020, Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook returned from a trip to Asia unusually energized about a new product category: foldable phones.
SpaceX’s stock has been stuck in a tight trading range recently, but a wave of new buying may soon arrive when the Nasdaq 100 Index goes through its quarterly rebalancing later this month.
If you look deeply into a speculative bubble, you can already see the collapse. If you look deeply into a market collapse, you can already see the bull market. The road up and the road down are the very same road. Even so, aside from knowing that our investment position presently requires a safety net regardless of shorter-term conditions – we have utterly no opinions, preferences, or scenarios about the market outlook even a month or a quarter from now.
It's been 40 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.
After a week of traveling abroad to meet with clients and discuss our outlook for the US economy and financial markets, we returned feeling the need to address a growing misconception, both in the United States and overseas, regarding the differences between the US and Chinese economies.
My goal with this letter will be to not interrupt your long weekend too much. But there are some things that are happening that are important. My basic thesis for quite some time has been that we are in a Muddle Through Economy, which I’ve always meant that to me the GDP will grow slightly south of 2% over time.
If you were Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang and you were laying out a few sector-shifting artificial-intelligence trends that could take shape over the coming months and years.
Apple Inc. has spent much of the past 15 years refining existing product lines and launching services to generate more recurring revenue. There have been a few fresh device categories, like the Apple Watch and AirPods, but no steady stream of new concepts.
Small Cap
The Optics of Low-Hire, Low-Fire
Last week we looked at the Federal Reserve’s inflation problem. This week, let’s look at the other half of its mandate: maximum employment.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 25, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished September 25, 2026 at 5.17% while the 2-year note ended at 4.81%.
US Stocks Rise as Investors See Relief in Yields, Oil Prices
US stocks climbed as oil and Treasury yields pulled back from the recent surges ahead of data on inflation expectations.
The ETF Survival of the Fittest: Record Launches Meet Accelerating Delistings
The exchange-traded fund (ETF) market is pacing toward a record-breaking year in 2026, driven by an unprecedented wave of new product launches and historic capital inflows.
A Broader Market, a Stronger Case for Dividend Growth
Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.
Discipline Through Uncertainty
This year has presented no shortage of challenges for investors. Geopolitical conflict, trade tensions, rising energy prices, shifting interest rate expectations and an increasingly active political backdrop have each taken turns dominating the headlines. Yet despite these obstacles, the economy has continued to expand, corporate profits have marched higher and markets have climbed one wall of worry after another.
Trump Accounts Are Here: What Families Need to Know
Trump Accounts are now available nationwide. Explore how the new tax-advantaged accounts work, who can contribute and key considerations for families evaluating their long-term savings options.
The AI Folks Don't Seem to Understand Intelligence
AI has changed coding, mathematics, and weather forecasting. They all have a vast pool of available training data, rapid feedback, and clear right and wrong answers. These keep models moored to reality, not spiraling off to disaster as the result of compounding small errors.
A Catalyst for the AI Bubble Break
Investment bubbles are inherently dangerous beasts. Like a natural Ponzi scheme, an investment bubble needs to draw in ever larger amounts of capital to keep it going. Nothing attracts capital like apparent success, so an inflating bubble that is creating fortunes for those who got in early will inevitably draw in capital. Unfortunately, this means the amount of money lost when the bubble bursts can outstrip the gains created on its way up.
Higher Yields
The appeal of a portfolio of individual bonds for many investors are the known qualities that they can provide: a known stream of cash flow, a known redemption value, a known redemption date, and a known yield; all of which are locked in at the time of purchase.
What's Holding Up Record Margins?
LPL Research analyzes S&P 500 margin expansion, assessing how much is structural versus cyclical and what that means for future earnings forecasts.
October Could Bring New Market Surprises as Earnings Season Nears: Here’s What to Watch
It’s really starting to feel like autumn now. August PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales are in the books, the September FOMC meeting is out of the way, and we can now look forward to Jobs Week on Wall Street. Football is in full swing, and earnings season begins before you know it, with Pepsi (PEP) posting results on Thursday, October 8, followed the next morning by Delta (DAL).
Energy Hedges the AI Trade
While the AI trade absorbs nearly all available investor attention, owning energy covers our absolute risk while creating the risk budget to cover the AI relative risk more effectively.
ETFs on TXSE: A Big Milestone for Y’all Street
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is more than a regional milestone — it is a shift in competition among U.S. capital markets. After months of anticipation, the TXSE reached a major landmark last week as Texas Capital’s TXS and OILT ETFs became its first primary listings, followed a day later by PWRX as the first new ETF to launch on the exchange.
The Tiny Magnet Maker That Attracted $1.6 Billion From Lutnick
In late January, the week before Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced a $1.6 billion government commitment to fund a US magnet maker, bankers at his former financial services company, now run by his sons, were busy earning fees raising $1.5 billion more for the company from private investors.
Dividend Demand Revives as Market Leadership Shifts
Dividend growth is back, and it’s fair to say that outperformance among dividend growth stocks may simply be overdue amid a shift in U.S. equity market leadership beyond a small group of mega-cap technology companies.
How Share Buybacks Can Create Compelling Value Trades
Share buybacks are when a company purchases its own shares, reducing the total number of shares on the market. Oftentimes, these buybacks occur on the open market, but companies may also look to buy shares from existing shareholders as well.
Hedge Funds Pull Back From the Basis Trade as Bond Gaps Vanish
A popular trade in US Treasuries has shrunk to its smallest size in over two years, in what Wall Street strategists say reflects fewer dislocations in the bond market for hedge funds to exploit.
Riskiest Stocks Lose Performance Edge as Interest Rates Climb
For most of this year, investors have flocked into small caps to diversify away from the concentrated AI trade. Rising interest rates are threatening to put a damper on that.
Inflation Tops Family Offices’ Worries, Citi Survey Finds
Family offices now see inflation as their No. 1 worry, underscoring how rising costs of goods and services are vexing even the richest investors.
Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back
This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting S&P 500 earnings to grow about 15%.
Why Big Tech’s AI Capex Is Now Outrunning Cash Flow
Early this week, I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn’t cheap, but it was well worth it.
Here We Go Again—Another Hiking Cycle?
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
What the Federal Reserve’s Rate Hike Means for the Markets
As summer officially gives way to fall on September 22, it's not just the weather that's changing. The global monetary policy landscape is shifting as well. After spending much of the past two years focused on supporting growth, central banks have increasingly turned their attention back to inflation, especially with oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel.
Trying to Decipher the Federal Reserve
This week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was largely in line with expectations. While many market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) members anticipated another rate increase later this year, we remained in the camp that viewed the move as likely the last increase before the Fed adopted a wait-and-see approach, allowing geopolitical developments to stabilize and recent inflationary base effects related to the US-Iran war to fade.
World Markets Watchlist: September 21, 2026
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through September 21, 2026.
Future Schlock: A Guide to the Singularity
Confused by the Singularity and the impending AI apocalypse? Theoretical physicist turned science writer Adam Becker is here to help with “More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley’s Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity,” a jaundiced tour d’horizon of the peculiar end-times stories that IT visionaries — particularly the richest and most powerful ones — tell themselves.
Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed's Job?
The combination of prior Fed inaction followed by relatively significant market tightening raises a question: If long-maturity yields were already weighing on economic activity, did the bond market already do the Fed’s job?
K-Shaped Economy: Reality or Media-Driven Perception
The K-shaped economy is real, and it is old. What changed isn’t the shape of the economy; it’s just that the media found a narrative that gets lots of clicks and views, and we let headlines do our thinking for us.
Indexing Redefined, Part IV: Active Management vs. RAFI
Throughout this Indexing Redefined series, we explored how traditional market-capitalization indexing ties portfolio weights directly to stock prices, creating hidden concentration risks. Furthermore, we discussed how fundamental indexing offers a disciplined alternative by weighting companies according to their real-world economic footprint. In this final installment, we address the dilemma investors face in highly concentrated equity markets.
Bitcoin Jumps to Over $84,800 After ETF Flows Turn Positive
Bitcoin surged near $85,000 to its highest since late-January, extending a sharp rebound as falling oil prices and a broader return of risk appetite helped cryptocurrencies move past setbacks on US crypto legislation and monetary policy.
US and China Hail Talks as Positive Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
US and Chinese officials offered upbeat assessments of their talks on artificial intelligence, trade and investment, signaling a mutual desire to steady ties ahead of this week’s summit between leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
SPIVA Report: Active Managers Struggle as Market Breadth Expands
Throughout this Indexing Redefined series, we explored how traditional market-capitalization indexing ties portfolio weights directly to stock prices, creating hidden concentration risks.
Pacing the Frontier
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
Janus Henderson Further Bolsters Global Equities Franchise with Two Senior Investment Appointments
Janus Henderson Investors today announced two senior investment appointments that will further deepen the firm’s leadership across its global equities franchise.
The Case for Small-Cap Investing: A Cyclical Story, Not a Broken One
Open any market commentary today and the conversation is dominated by giants. Mega-cap technology companies command outsized shares of major indexes, and the private markets tell a similar story, as we watch companies increasingly staying private well past the point where they once would have gone public.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales were up 1.2% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year in August. After adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.8% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
Dear Humanity – Can We Teach AI Compassion?
Artificial intelligence is advancing at a stunning, and perhaps uncontrolled speed. Last week, Evan Hubinger, the Alignment Science Lead at the AI company Anthropic estimated a greater than 10% chance that AI could eliminate humanity within a decade. Jakub Pachocki, Chief Scientist at OpenAI, recently observed 'The core problem in AI research is that of alignment - getting the AI to ‘try to do the right thing’ by human standards…
Novel ETFs: New Strategies Push Boundaries
As ETF strategies continue to expand into new asset classes and structures, the SEC has been taking a closer look at how some of these products fit within existing regulations.
Capital Return Retreat: Dividends and Buybacks Slump as Macro Risks Mount in Q3
For decades, equity investors have relied on a foundational promise from Corporate America: the continuous return of surplus cash. Dividends and share repurchases represent the two primary ways by which companies deliver tangible value back to shareholders. Yet as we navigate the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026, both channels are signaling a distinct shift toward restraint.
Energy Addition Within the Transition
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
The Hidden Tax-Loss Opportunity in Today's Stock Market
A rising S&P 500® might suggest few opportunities for tax-loss harvesting. But unusually wide dispersion among individual stocks is telling a different story—and potentially creating new opportunities for direct indexing.
The Hidden Psychology Behind Market FOMO
Most people have had that moment when they’re walking along outside, enjoying a sunny day, and suddenly something long and twisty on the ground catches their eye. Before they even know what’s happening, their whole body jumps and their brain shouts, “Snake!”
Janus Henderson Launches International Core Alpha ETF
Janus Henderson launched a new international equity ETF on Wednesday, according to a Janus Henderson press release. The Janus Henderson International Core Alpha ETF (JINT) seeks long-term growth of capital across developed markets outside the U.S.
Retail Sales Rebound Strongly in August
U.S. headline retail sales rebounded in August, up 1.2% to $773.9 in August, while core retail sales increased by 1.4%.
Compensation Is a Multi-Layered & Ongoing Conversation
In my years working with advisors, teams, and firms, I’ve had to confront the topic of compensation many times. It’s hard to grow when you don’t have the right incentives in place to encourage people to focus on actually doing it and hard to team effectively when people may think they are being treated unfairly.
Leveraged ETFs: From Megacaps to Micro Trends
Single-stock leveraged ETFs were unusual when they first arrived in the U.S. market just four years ago. Today, it might be hard to find a stock without one. Issuers are aggressively pushing beyond megacap tech into niche equities, pre-IPO registrations, and even experimenting with leverage levels and frequency.
What History Says About Fed Hikes and Stocks
With so much attention focused on what the Fed might do at its policy meeting this week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should policymakers hike rates as the market now expects. LPL Research had been characterizing the rate decision as a coin flip until Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting and the strong August jobs report.
Should Inflation Defense Be Strategic or Tactical? Both
From the 2020 pandemic to today’s oil shocks, we’re often reminded in recent years that inflation can flare up unexpectedly. We’ve also likely entered an era in which higher inflation may linger for some time. As a result, bond-heavy and income-oriented investors may need to shore up their inflation defense, which we think should combine strategic positioning with tactical maneuvering.
Beyond the CPI: The Complete Inflation Story -- August 2026
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August was generally in line with expectations. However, a slightly hotter-than-expected core CPI reading buoyed expectations of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting in September.
Markets Tested by Higher Rates and Sticky Inflation
A week of rising oil prices and higher interest rates sent stocks lower across the board as investors increasingly priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin a rate-hiking cycle at its September 16 meeting. Following the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, futures markets implied an 88 percent probability that the Fed will, or at least should, raise rates at next week's meeting.
From the US Market Desk: From Missouri
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Portfolio Risk Management: Winning The Long Game (Chapter 5)
In our final chapter for this series, we will dig into that exact question. Unfortunately, there is good and bad news, and it can be summed up in a single sentence.
Cheap Drones Are Repricing Global Energy Markets
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
Expectations for Monetary Policy as Treasury Yields Reach Multi-Year Highs
As policymakers adapt to new leadership, navigate a challenging geopolitical backdrop and contend with meaningful internal debate over the path of interest rates, the stakes remain high. Below, we discuss what to expect from next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and provide perspective on the recent rise of Treasury yields to multi-year highs.
Indexing Redefined, Part III: Implementation & The Total ETF Experience
In Part III, the focus will center on practical applications of this discipline. In particular, how advisors can integrate the methodology into modern asset allocation, and why it offers an evolutionary leap for passive investing that’s available through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Strengths & Weaknesses of Advisor Fee–Only Models from the Client Perspective
As I go through the strengths and weaknesses of each model, my goals are to point out where the models are strong and to point out potential weaknesses such as conflicts of interest, which are important to be aware of in working with clients. Although we are all fiduciaries, financial incentives matter because we are all human. I know great advisors across all fee models.
AI-Obsessed Wall Street Pours Billions Into Inflation-Era Bets
The list of challenges confronting Wall Street piled up this week. Oil firmly above $100. Inflation refusing to disappear. A defiant bond market that all but dared Scott Bessent to bring more policy firepower.
Are Higher Rates a “Real” Problem?
Some investors are questioning how much further this year’s rally can run with the S&P 500 Index up 12.3% through the first eight months of the year. Encouragingly, history suggests that strong starts tend to persist; when the S&P 500 has gained more than 10% through August it has advanced from September through December in 25 of 28 instances, an 89% positive hit rate.
The Labor Market’s New Math
The recent employment report provided reassurance that the US labor market remains resilient. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August; the previous two months’ gains were revised higher by a combined 55,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.
Does Your Financial Plan Depend Too Much on One Stock?
One or a few high-performing stocks can provide a big boost to portfolio values. But they’re hard to come by and often struggle to maintain their momentum over time. Because these stocks increase portfolio concentration, investors must balance the risk of overexposure against the tax cost of diversifying. A thoughtful, tax-aware plan may help bring portfolios back in line.
Dodging the September Slump: Inside the 2026 IPO Rebound
Don't let September's macro headline noise fool you. Today’s economic backdrop won’t likely trigger a broad market freeze like 2022, but there will be winners and losers. Cash-rich mega-caps, AI infrastructure plays, and scaled market leaders (the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI tier) command their own gravity.
Global Bond Yields Rise as Iran Conflict Escalates and Fed Outlook Wavers
U.S. equities were little changed on the week – the S&P 500 rose 0.1 per cent, the NASDAQ gained 0.4 per cent, and the Russell 2000 added 0.12 per cent – but those modest moves masked a far more turbulent week in the global rates markets.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation at 3.4% in August
Inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, as it did for the 12 months ending July. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with economist estimates.
A Broad-Based Rally
With a handful of stocks attracting most of the recent headlines, it’s easy to forget that investors continue to find opportunities across a broad range of sectors.
Rate Hikes and Market Impacts
History suggests slower Fed tightening tends to support stronger market returns and firmer economic growth, while faster hikes typically deepen drawdowns.
The Catalysts Behind Small Cap Outperformance
Portfolio Managers Jonathan Coleman and Aaron Schaechterle outline why they believe momentum in small-cap stocks relative to large caps can continue, highlighting favorable earnings growth prospects, appealing relative valuations, and other structural tailwinds.
What’s Really Driving up Treasury Yields?
2026 began with 10-year Treasuries right around 4%, which many viewed as a comfortable place. The comfort came from some simple math—2 plus 2 equals 4. The long-term real yield on the 10-year Treasury was around 2% and the Fed’s inflation target is 2%.
25 Years of Benchmark-Free Investing
Benchmark-Free has been a flagship strategy for half of GMO's history. As we approach our 50th anniversary in 2027, Ben Inker reflects on our first 25 years of Benchmark-Free investing.
Producer Price Index: Up 0.4% in August, Better Than Expected
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 0.4% in August, better than expectations.
Welcome Back, Balanced Portfolio
For much of the past decade and a half, investors saw little reason to favor bonds over equities. Yields were low and returns were muted, especially in passive strategies. Equities seemed to offer a much clearer path to long-term capital appreciation. For many investors, bonds were, at best, ballast: a dull but generally stable component of a broader portfolio. Then the experience of 2022 had investors questioning even that view, as areas of high quality fixed income generated equity-like losses that eroded much of the prior decade’s real return.
High School Action Plan Part 2: Junior and Senior Years
As students get closer to making a final college decision, the last two years of high school are particularly important. Parents will want to review their financial strategy to meet the costs of college, including a review of current savings, financial and merit aid, scholarships and loan options.
Signs Point to a Normalization, Not a Crisis
LPL Research analyzes rising U.S. debt, Treasury yields, and fiscal trends, highlighting implications for markets and investors.
Americans Deserve Better Oversight of Their Annuities
Every year, Americans send hundreds of billions of dollars of retirement savings to life insurers in return for annuities that promise a future income. It’s an industry built on trust and prudence.
Equity Markets and the Weather: Escaping the Forecast Trap
Equity markets can be as difficult to forecast as the weather, yet investors often assume future return patterns will predictably follow recent trends. In today’s turbulent market climate, we think fundamental research can help investors build conviction in long-term company forecasts that may be obscured by the AI-driven cloud cover.
5 Key Forces Shaping the Market Outlook After Labor Day
Labor Day signals more than summer’s end. It marks a return of focus to the economic and market forces that will shape the remainder of the year. From resilient earnings and record AI spending to rising bond yields and the midterm elections, there is no shortage of forces shaping the market outlook.
The Real Winners of the Venezuela Oil Deal
If you’re planning on driving anywhere this Labor Day weekend, be prepared to pay the highest gas prices ever for this time of year. The national average hit $4.14 per gallon on Thursday, an approximately 30% increase from last year, according to AAA.
August 2026 Market Update: Record Highs, Narrow Breadth, and a Fed That Might Hike
The S&P 500 gained 2.7% in August 2026 and four indexes hit all-time highs, but only five of eleven sectors rose and the Fed’s speech at Jackson Hole put a rate hike back on the table.
SEC Proposes to Scrap Pay-to-Play Rule for Advisers
The SEC wants to rescind a 15-year-old rule curbing political donations by investment advisers, aiming to ease compliance burdens for RIAs.
The Right Benchmarks for Direct Venture Investment
Direct venture investment rewards a rigorous, patient approach. The companies that generate exceptional returns tend to combine all three factors above: genuine growth momentum, clear category ownership, and strong institutional support.
Bonds. Worth a Look?
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The Wall of Political and Economic Risks Is Growing
Stock investors are caught between the pull of strong earnings and mounting macroeconomic risks, with key events carrying binary outcomes that argue for some protection.
Apple’s $2,000-Plus Foldable iPhone Was a Decade in the Making
Around 2020, Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook returned from a trip to Asia unusually energized about a new product category: foldable phones.
SpaceX Set for Boost From Potential Jump in Nasdaq 100 Weighting
SpaceX’s stock has been stuck in a tight trading range recently, but a wave of new buying may soon arrive when the Nasdaq 100 Index goes through its quarterly rebalancing later this month.
The Road Up and the Road Down are the Very Same Road
If you look deeply into a speculative bubble, you can already see the collapse. If you look deeply into a market collapse, you can already see the bull market. The road up and the road down are the very same road. Even so, aside from knowing that our investment position presently requires a safety net regardless of shorter-term conditions – we have utterly no opinions, preferences, or scenarios about the market outlook even a month or a quarter from now.
Songs of Experience: Reminiscences of a Strategist
It's been 40 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.
Let’s Talk China, but Don’t Be Fooled by Its Propaganda Machine
After a week of traveling abroad to meet with clients and discuss our outlook for the US economy and financial markets, we returned feeling the need to address a growing misconception, both in the United States and overseas, regarding the differences between the US and Chinese economies.
Revisiting Muddle Through
My goal with this letter will be to not interrupt your long weekend too much. But there are some things that are happening that are important. My basic thesis for quite some time has been that we are in a Muddle Through Economy, which I’ve always meant that to me the GDP will grow slightly south of 2% over time.
Nvidia’s $13 Billion Hugging Face Deal Is a Bargain Hedge
If you were Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang and you were laying out a few sector-shifting artificial-intelligence trends that could take shape over the coming months and years.
Apple to Kick Off Ternus Era With Its Biggest-Ever Slate of New Products
Apple Inc. has spent much of the past 15 years refining existing product lines and launching services to generate more recurring revenue. There have been a few fresh device categories, like the Apple Watch and AirPods, but no steady stream of new concepts.