Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
The S&P 500 climbed for most of the week, ending with its highest close of the year on Friday. The index is up 6.04% YTD and is 15.14% below its record close.
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
US dollar cycles are long.
Special needs trusts and ABLE accounts are the pillars of special needs funding. I have a professional here to discuss the differences between them and how each can be used to maximize financial resources. This includes protecting government benefits, understanding eligibility requirements, guidelines for use, and funding options. The discussion will explain how you can best support families to provide quality of life and a lifetime of care.
The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined to 3. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 186K new claims, down 6k from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 205K.
Formed in 2005 to serve educational and resource needs of professional business advisors, the Exit Planning Institute is a trendsetter in the field of exit planning for business owners across the globe. It is the only organization that offers the Certified Exit Planning Advisor Program (CEPA) and qualifies for continuing education credits with 12 major professional associations, making it the most widely endorsed professional exit planning program in the world.
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
As of January 23, the price of regular and premium gas were up 11 and 9 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.94 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.05. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.62 and is up 1.8% from last week.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
For the 15 years preceding 2022, asset management was a great business, fueled by near-double-digit AUM growth driven by rising equity and bond markets. But that party ended in 2022, with big losses in the stock market and record losses in the bond market. My guest today is here to discuss what that means for asset managers, advisors, and the consumer who ultimately own mutual funds and ETFs.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Cathie Wood is back to selling JD.com Inc. shares after a hiatus of about six months as Chinese technology stocks see a historic rebound helped by regulatory easing.
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
A chart breakdown in the S&P 500. Signs of complacency in a closely watched options gauge.
RIA merger and acquisition activity had yet another record year, although the year-over-year increase was less steep than prior years. There were 264 transactions in 2022. M&A activity was nearly 10% higher than last year's 241 transactions. But 2022 ended with a slower fourth quarter, 20% below last year's blockbuster Q4 total. We'll get into the details beneath the numbers with David DeVoe in this podcast. I have had the privilege of interviewing David every year around this time, and this is the third in that series.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
Nearly seven years have passed since the publication of our 2016 paper “How Can ‘Smart Beta’ Go Horribly Wrong?”
Meta Platforms Inc.’s market-beating rally of the past few months is failing to convince some skeptics, given how much money the owner of Facebook and Instagram continues to pour into building its version of the metaverse.
Vanguard Group, which quit the world’s biggest climate-finance alliance in December, was the only major ETF provider to post an increase in European assets last year thanks to its lower exposure to environmental, social and governance strategies, according to Morningstar Inc.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
The process by which advisors select a TAMP is the latest illustration of fiduciary failure, and the SEC has responded with ominous rulemaking that will have questionable value to our profession.
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
In this 30-minute livecast, get caught up on the latest ETF trends and what's ahead from VettaFi's Head of Research and the Director of Research from ETF Think Tank. Have questions about our Exchange conference? We'll be answering those too! By registering for the livecast, you will also be eligible for a complimentary Exchange registration.
The latest full set UIG for November is 5.37% while the prices-only measure is 4.53%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.45% and Core CPI is 5.71%.
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Demand for Europe’s debt sales has topped half a trillion euros already this year as investors seek to put money to work in bonds offering some of the highest yields in years.
A disaster for bulls, the yearlong tumble in American stocks has in some respects been almost as rough for the other side of the trade.
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
With the aggressive pace of rate hikes in 2022 and inflation slowly starting to come down, we are optimistic that we are in the later stages of the tightening cycle.
Exchange-traded fund investors are piling into bets on junk bonds as the securities start the year with a strong comeback.
Tens of thousands of tech sector job cuts may not be enough to reverse the collapse in share prices, given the looming economic downturn could slash companies’ revenues far more than the cost savings they make via layoffs.
The headline number for December came in at 89.8, down 2.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 7th percentile in this series.
TMX Group Limited (TMX Group) announced today that it has made a strategic investment in VettaFi Holdings LLC (VettaFi), a U.S.-based, privately owned data, analytics, indexing, digital distribution, and thought leadership company.
Investors are bracing for a miserable stretch of earnings reports that will likely extend the dominance of value shares as Corporate America grapples with high inflation and rising borrowing costs, the latest MLIV Pulse survey shows.
Relieved to have turned the page on the worst year for stocks in more than a decade, investors are finding that pricey share valuations and shrinking earnings still stand in the way of any swift bounceback for Big Tech.
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
Learn trading techniques to better control pricing when buying or selling ETFs.
Tesla Inc. shares kicked off the new year on an ominous note, buckling this week under renewed concerns about weakening demand for its electric cars, and sending its market value briefly below Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.’s for the first time in over a year.
The $6.5 trillion US ETF industry boomed in 2022 as innovative product debuts and market volatility fueled a near-record number of launches. But the fanfare revealed a major flaw in the space: the lack of women helming the funds.
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 146.7%, down from 156.2% the previous quarter.
Build your ladder with multiple target-maturity ETFs representing different segments of the bond market, with different target years.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,364 for an annualized real return of 5.8%.
In the rough year ahead, bonds might be one of the only bright spots. It would mark a dramatic turnaround from 2022, when bonds fell alongside almost every other asset class, posting their worst year in a generation.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of December 30, 2022, it was at 3.88%.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
The December US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by S&P Global came in at 44.7 percent, down from the final November estimate of 46.2 and in contraction territory.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the December Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 49.6 percent and is down 6.9 from 56.5 last month. Today's number came in well below the Investing.com forecast of 55.0 percent.
Optimists were still to be found in the world of US exchange-traded funds, where more than 400 new ETFs were launched despite a harsh bear market. Funds took in more than half a trillion dollars as more investors learned to embrace their easier-to-trade and tax-friendly structure.
Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite since 2000. We've updated this through the December 30, 2022 close.
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
Note: This update includes December close data.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$61.5B was better than the -73.0B Investing.com forecast.
Investors are no longer turning a blind eye to risks facing Apple Inc., an about-face that has taken the iPhone maker’s market value below $2 trillion and threatens more pain for the stock in the months ahead.
Quick take: At the end of December the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 115% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
The S&P 500 peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 22% from that peak.
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through November, is now available.
The December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.2, down 1.5 from the final November figure and in contraction territory for the second consecutive month. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Although the latest CPI data showed that inflation is slowing, it is still the number-one concern for clients. Investors are worried about the Fed’s reaction to interest rates, economic turbulence, and a potential recession. My guest today is here to discuss four topics:
Quick take: Based on the December S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 115% above its arithmetic mean and at the 97th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
ETF
Performance Persistence Matters
Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Why Have Equal-Weighted Portfolios Outperformed the Market?
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
Dollar's Decline Is a Rare Nasdaq Tailwind as Earnings Loom
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Bitcoin Barrels Toward Historic January as Crypto Market Jumps by $280 Billion
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Friday Ends Up 0.25%
The S&P 500 climbed for most of the week, ending with its highest close of the year on Friday. The index is up 6.04% YTD and is 15.14% below its record close.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
Funding Special Needs Clients with ABLE Accounts
Special needs trusts and ABLE accounts are the pillars of special needs funding. I have a professional here to discuss the differences between them and how each can be used to maximize financial resources. This includes protecting government benefits, understanding eligibility requirements, guidelines for use, and funding options. The discussion will explain how you can best support families to provide quality of life and a lifetime of care.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Was Flat
The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined to 3. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
We Asked ChatGPT to Make a Market-Beating ETF. Here’s What Happened
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
Municipal Bonds: Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 6K, Better Than Forecast
This morning's seasonally adjusted 186K new claims, down 6k from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 205K.
How to Help Clients with Exit Planning
Formed in 2005 to serve educational and resource needs of professional business advisors, the Exit Planning Institute is a trendsetter in the field of exit planning for business owners across the globe. It is the only organization that offers the Certified Exit Planning Advisor Program (CEPA) and qualifies for continuing education credits with 12 major professional associations, making it the most widely endorsed professional exit planning program in the world.
The Perversion Afflicting Value Investors
Successful investment management can be Impaired by perverse incentives, which are what now plagues value funds.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Increase for 4th Consecutive Week
As of January 23, the price of regular and premium gas were up 11 and 9 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.94 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.05. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.62 and is up 1.8% from last week.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Cathie Wood's ARKK Is Well on Way to One of Its Best Months Ever
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
The Post-2022 Asset Management Landscape
For the 15 years preceding 2022, asset management was a great business, fueled by near-double-digit AUM growth driven by rising equity and bond markets. But that party ended in 2022, with big losses in the stock market and record losses in the bond market. My guest today is here to discuss what that means for asset managers, advisors, and the consumer who ultimately own mutual funds and ETFs.
World Markets Update: January 20, 2023
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
Nvidia to Win Big From ChatGPT Hype, Wall Street Predicts
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
CB LEI: 10th Consecutive Decline in December, Recession Signal Continues
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Fortune Doesn’t Always Favor the Bold: The Perils of Concentrated Stock Positions
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
Margin Debt Down 5.8% in December
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Cathie Wood Resumes Selling in JD.com for First Time Since July
Cathie Wood is back to selling JD.com Inc. shares after a hiatus of about six months as Chinese technology stocks see a historic rebound helped by regulatory easing.
US Market Watchers Are Fretting Over the Biggest January Options Expiry in a Decade
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Treasury Snapshot: January 20, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
Mid-Cap ETFs’ Moment
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
Bruised Stock Bears Bust Out the Charts in Arguing the Top Is In
A chart breakdown in the S&P 500. Signs of complacency in a closely watched options gauge.
M&A Valuations and the Landscape for 2023
RIA merger and acquisition activity had yet another record year, although the year-over-year increase was less steep than prior years. There were 264 transactions in 2022. M&A activity was nearly 10% higher than last year's 241 transactions. But 2022 ended with a slower fourth quarter, 20% below last year's blockbuster Q4 total. We'll get into the details beneath the numbers with David DeVoe in this podcast. I have had the privilege of interviewing David every year around this time, and this is the third in that series.
Retail Sales Down 1.15% in December, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
Revisiting Our “Horribly Wrong” Paper: That Was Then, This Is Now
Nearly seven years have passed since the publication of our 2016 paper “How Can ‘Smart Beta’ Go Horribly Wrong?”
Meta’s 54% Stock Comeback Is Still on Shaky Ground
Meta Platforms Inc.’s market-beating rally of the past few months is failing to convince some skeptics, given how much money the owner of Facebook and Instagram continues to pour into building its version of the metaverse.
Vanguard Gets Extra ETF Billions After Largely Shunning ESG
Vanguard Group, which quit the world’s biggest climate-finance alliance in December, was the only major ETF provider to post an increase in European assets last year thanks to its lower exposure to environmental, social and governance strategies, according to Morningstar Inc.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
Unfazed by Airline Grounding, Investors Look Ahead to Earnings
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
The SEC Outsourcing Rule and Our Failure as Fiduciaries
The process by which advisors select a TAMP is the latest illustration of fiduciary failure, and the SEC has responded with ominous rulemaking that will have questionable value to our profession.
Global Credit Outlook: Cautious on Turbulence & Technicals
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
Was 2022 The Best Year for ETF Industry?
In this 30-minute livecast, get caught up on the latest ETF trends and what's ahead from VettaFi's Head of Research and the Director of Research from ETF Think Tank. Have questions about our Exchange conference? We'll be answering those too! By registering for the livecast, you will also be eligible for a complimentary Exchange registration.
Underlying Inflation Gauge: December Update
The latest full set UIG for November is 5.37% while the prices-only measure is 4.53%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.45% and Core CPI is 5.71%.
Top US Banks Slash Bond Sales, a Bright Spot for Investors
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Europe Debt Demand Is Already at Half a Trillion Dollars in 2023
Demand for Europe’s debt sales has topped half a trillion euros already this year as investors seek to put money to work in bonds offering some of the highest yields in years.
Biggest Ever Bear-Market Bounces Create Unending Pain for Shorts
A disaster for bulls, the yearlong tumble in American stocks has in some respects been almost as rough for the other side of the trade.
Emerging-Market Stocks Rise to Six-Month High Versus S&P 500
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
3 Investment Themes for 2023
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
Gundlach: Bonds are Much Cheaper than Stocks
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
The Back Half of the Hike Cycle
With the aggressive pace of rate hikes in 2022 and inflation slowly starting to come down, we are optimistic that we are in the later stages of the tightening cycle.
Biggest Junk-Bond ETF Draws Most Cash Since 2020 as Debt Rallies
Exchange-traded fund investors are piling into bets on junk bonds as the securities start the year with a strong comeback.
Amazon, Salesforce Job Cuts Are Warning Signs for Stock Prices
Tens of thousands of tech sector job cuts may not be enough to reverse the collapse in share prices, given the looming economic downturn could slash companies’ revenues far more than the cost savings they make via layoffs.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Declines in December
The headline number for December came in at 89.8, down 2.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 7th percentile in this series.
TMX Group Makes Announcement of Strategic Investment in VettaFi
TMX Group Limited (TMX Group) announced today that it has made a strategic investment in VettaFi Holdings LLC (VettaFi), a U.S.-based, privately owned data, analytics, indexing, digital distribution, and thought leadership company.
Value Stocks to Lure Investors During Grim Earnings Season
Investors are bracing for a miserable stretch of earnings reports that will likely extend the dominance of value shares as Corporate America grapples with high inflation and rising borrowing costs, the latest MLIV Pulse survey shows.
Earnings Remain Key Risk for Tech Stocks After Worst Year Since 2008
Relieved to have turned the page on the worst year for stocks in more than a decade, investors are finding that pricey share valuations and shrinking earnings still stand in the way of any swift bounceback for Big Tech.
When Old Rules Break Down, Consider a New Investing Approach
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
A Primer for Clients to Invest in Commodities
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
Understanding “Guaranteed” Market-on-Close
Learn trading techniques to better control pricing when buying or selling ETFs.
Tesla’s Demand Troubles Spell a Terrible Start to the Year
Tesla Inc. shares kicked off the new year on an ominous note, buckling this week under renewed concerns about weakening demand for its electric cars, and sending its market value briefly below Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.’s for the first time in over a year.
Women Rarely Manage ETFs. Meet the Team Looking to Change That
The $6.5 trillion US ETF industry boomed in 2022 as innovative product debuts and market volatility fueled a near-record number of launches. But the fanfare revealed a major flaw in the space: the lack of women helming the funds.
Is It Time To Rethink The 60/40 Portfolio?
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
Market Cap to GDP: Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 146.7%, down from 156.2% the previous quarter.
How to Build a Bond Ladder Using ETFs
Build your ladder with multiple target-maturity ETFs representing different segments of the bond market, with different target years.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,364 for an annualized real return of 5.8%.
Here Are the Top ETFs for Retail Investors in 2023
In the rough year ahead, bonds might be one of the only bright spots. It would mark a dramatic turnaround from 2022, when bonds fell alongside almost every other asset class, posting their worst year in a generation.
December 2022: Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of December 30, 2022, it was at 3.88%.
Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
S&P Global Services PMI: Sharp Decline in December
The December US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by S&P Global came in at 44.7 percent, down from the final November estimate of 46.2 and in contraction territory.
ISM Services Plummets in December
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the December Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 49.6 percent and is down 6.9 from 56.5 last month. Today's number came in well below the Investing.com forecast of 55.0 percent.
ETF Market Expanded in 2022 Through Bear Market But Took Hits
Optimists were still to be found in the world of US exchange-traded funds, where more than 400 new ETFs were launched despite a harsh bear market. Funds took in more than half a trillion dollars as more investors learned to embrace their easier-to-trade and tax-friendly structure.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite since 2000. We've updated this through the December 30, 2022 close.
JPMorgan’s Smash-Hit ‘Income’ ETF Seen Battling Off Bond Market
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
P/E10: December 2022 Update
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Markets Look to Rebound From a Volatile 2022
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: December Update
Note: This update includes December close data.
November Trade Deficit at $61.5B
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$61.5B was better than the -73.0B Investing.com forecast.
Apple’s Stock Is Losing Its Shine After an Ugly Month of December
Investors are no longer turning a blind eye to risks facing Apple Inc., an about-face that has taken the iPhone maker’s market value below $2 trillion and threatens more pain for the stock in the months ahead.
Regression to Trend: 115% Above Trend in December
Quick take: At the end of December the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 115% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets
The S&P 500 peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Vehicle Sales Per Capita as of November 2022
The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 22% from that peak.
November Job Openings & Labor Turnover
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through November, is now available.
December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Deteriorating Faster
The December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.2, down 1.5 from the final November figure and in contraction territory for the second consecutive month. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
How to Protect Against Inflation and Slow Growth
Although the latest CPI data showed that inflation is slowing, it is still the number-one concern for clients. Investors are worried about the Fed’s reaction to interest rates, economic turbulence, and a potential recession. My guest today is here to discuss four topics:
Crestmont Market Valuation Update: December 2022
Quick take: Based on the December S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 115% above its arithmetic mean and at the 97th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.