Join Global X to understand how transformative technologies are disrupting our economy, creating exciting opportunities for investors. “Charting Disruption” is Global X’s annual flagship thematic outlook for the trends, technologies and bold ideas shaping the future. Join VettaFi | Advisor Perspectives on February 21st for a webcast to learn more.
As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
On Monday, Germany’s GDP print for the final quarter of 2022 came out below expectations of 0.0% by -2%.
The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Note: This update includes January close data.
Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast is appreciated as a bit of inconsequential fun; nobody takes it too seriously. Unfortunately, that’s not the case on Wall Street.
Three decades after helping give birth to the ETF industry, Morgan Stanley is officially back in the game in what could be a milestone moment for the investing world.
A $480 billion chipmaker whose processors are used for complex computing tasks. A digital-media company seeking to mine nascent technologies for content.
Wall Street had widely expected that the Federal Reserve would ease up on its pace of rate hikes to battle inflation on Wednesday.
The Federal Reserve slowed its drive to rein in inflation and said further interest-rate hikes are in store as officials debate when to end their most aggressive tightening of credit in four decades.
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for January. The latest headline purchasing managers index (PMI) was 47.4, down 1.0 from the previous month and in contraction territory. This marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 48.0.
As investors seek to pinpoint market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, it’s critical to consider not just rate projections and derivatives pricing, but the degree of uncertainty and distribution of outcomes.
The January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.9, up 0.7 from the final December figure, and marginally better than the Investing.com forecast of 46.8. However, this marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
I chose the topic for this month’s Absolute Return Letter during the Christmas break.
Shaky property markets across much of the world pose another risk to the global economy as higher interest rates erode household finances and threaten to exacerbate falling prices.
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
This year’s 40% rally in Bitcoin is heading toward a potentially big test in the shape of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision.
It is hard to reconcile the jubilant mood of many business leaders with the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed January with a monthly gain of 6.18%, it's highest since 2019, after a loss of 5.9% in December. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, one of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q4 2022.
Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
Foreigners are returning to China’s stock market with a vengeance, snapping up more shares in January alone than they did for the whole of 2022.
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% decrease month over month. The MoM is reduced to -1.2% after adjusting for inflation. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 7.7% YoY increase.
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said persistently weak inflation is likely to return as a long-term challenge for the economy and policymakers once pandemic-era distortions behind the recent surge subside and prices cool.
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 30, 2023. The top performer continues to be Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a YTD gain of 11.57%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 9.40%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 8.64%. Coming in last for the fourth straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 2.20% YTD.
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Elon Musk’s response to wavering demand and recession risk is pretty clear: slash prices, keep increasing capacity and try to continue growing even if it means sacrificing profit margin in the short term.
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
US dollar cycles are long.
Tesla Inc. has secured a new $5 billion revolving credit facility, another sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined to 3. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Having oscillated between anticipating another 50-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve next week or a downshift to 25 basis points, traders have settled solidly on the latter, guided both by Fed officials’ comments and by media reports.
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
Formed in 2005 to serve educational and resource needs of professional business advisors, the Exit Planning Institute is a trendsetter in the field of exit planning for business owners across the globe. It is the only organization that offers the Certified Exit Planning Advisor Program (CEPA) and qualifies for continuing education credits with 12 major professional associations, making it the most widely endorsed professional exit planning program in the world.
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
It is possible, contrary to the predictions of most economists, that the US will get through this disinflationary period and make the proverbial “soft landing.”
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
No advisor would dream of engaging in the kind of behavior that occurred at Purdue University in early December.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joined Bloomberg TV in Davos to discuss the outlook for credit as recession nears.
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
If you are competing with the best of the best, how do you rise above the competition?
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.
Global Markets
Charting Disruption – FinTech & Blockchain
Join Global X to understand how transformative technologies are disrupting our economy, creating exciting opportunities for investors. “Charting Disruption” is Global X’s annual flagship thematic outlook for the trends, technologies and bold ideas shaping the future. Join VettaFi | Advisor Perspectives on February 21st for a webcast to learn more.
The FOMC Won’t Blink
As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
P/E10: January 2022 Update
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Regional Differences in European GDP Trends
On Monday, Germany’s GDP print for the final quarter of 2022 came out below expectations of 0.0% by -2%.
Research Reports
The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done.
The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: January Update
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Note: This update includes January close data.
Beware of Wall Street's Groundhog Predictions
Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast is appreciated as a bit of inconsequential fun; nobody takes it too seriously. Unfortunately, that’s not the case on Wall Street.
Morgan Stanley Makes Historic ETF Comeback With Six New Funds
Three decades after helping give birth to the ETF industry, Morgan Stanley is officially back in the game in what could be a milestone moment for the investing world.
Wall Street Is Obsessed With ChatGPT. These Are the AI Stocks to Watch
A $480 billion chipmaker whose processors are used for complex computing tasks. A digital-media company seeking to mine nascent technologies for content.
Wall Street Shrugs Off 'Fed’s Tough Talk' to Cheer Smaller Hikes
Wall Street had widely expected that the Federal Reserve would ease up on its pace of rate hikes to battle inflation on Wednesday.
Fed Slows Rate Hikes, Signals Further Increases Are Coming
The Federal Reserve slowed its drive to rein in inflation and said further interest-rate hikes are in store as officials debate when to end their most aggressive tightening of credit in four decades.
Where is the Recession?
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
ISM Manufacturing Index Continues Contraction in January
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for January. The latest headline purchasing managers index (PMI) was 47.4, down 1.0 from the previous month and in contraction territory. This marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 48.0.
Trying to Make Apple Juice from Oranges: The Problem with Comparing Market Pricing and Fed Projections
As investors seek to pinpoint market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, it’s critical to consider not just rate projections and derivatives pricing, but the degree of uncertainty and distribution of outcomes.
January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Declining Further
The January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.9, up 0.7 from the final December figure, and marginally better than the Investing.com forecast of 46.8. However, this marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Is the Bubble About to Burst?
I chose the topic for this month’s Absolute Return Letter during the Christmas break.
Housing Slump From US to China Adds Risks to Global Economy
Shaky property markets across much of the world pose another risk to the global economy as higher interest rates erode household finances and threaten to exacerbate falling prices.
Wall Street's Feel-Good Start to 2023 Sets Up Perilous Fed Day
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
Bitcoin Is About to Test the Adage 'Don't Fight the Fed'
This year’s 40% rally in Bitcoin is heading toward a potentially big test in the shape of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision.
Too Soon for Global Optimism
It is hard to reconcile the jubilant mood of many business leaders with the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
Moving Averages: S&P Closes Month Up 6.18%, Best January Finish Since 2019
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed January with a monthly gain of 6.18%, it's highest since 2019, after a loss of 5.9% in December. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, one of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.9% in Q4 2022
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q4 2022.
10 Macroeconomic Themes for 2023
Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
Foreigners Scoop Up China Shares With January Inflow at Record
Foreigners are returning to China’s stock market with a vengeance, snapping up more shares in January alone than they did for the whole of 2022.
November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues Decline
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% decrease month over month. The MoM is reduced to -1.2% after adjusting for inflation. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 7.7% YoY increase.
4Q 2022 GMO Quarterly Letter
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
Yellen Sees Low Inflation as More Likely Long-Term Challenge
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said persistently weak inflation is likely to return as a long-term challenge for the economy and policymakers once pandemic-era distortions behind the recent surge subside and prices cool.
Top Bond Fund Bets Markets Are Wrong on Rates, Again
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
World Markets Update: January 30, 2023
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 30, 2023. The top performer continues to be Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a YTD gain of 11.57%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 9.40%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 8.64%. Coming in last for the fourth straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 2.20% YTD.
Stocks Decreasing to Start the Busy Week
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
Performance Persistence Matters
Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Historic Crash for Memory Chips Threatens to Wipe Out Earnings
The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Bitcoin Barrels Toward Historic January as Crypto Market Jumps by $280 Billion
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Fed's Wall Street Clash Sets Stage for Powell’s Hawkish Message
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Stocks Are Poised to Hit New Lows This Year, Survey of Investors Shows
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Panasonic Sees Potential for Another EV Battery Plant in US
Elon Musk’s response to wavering demand and recession risk is pretty clear: slash prices, keep increasing capacity and try to continue growing even if it means sacrificing profit margin in the short term.
Investors Flock to European Stocks Leaving US Behind, BofA Says
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
Tesla Gets $5 Billion Credit Line in Sign It's Nearing Investment-Grade Status
Tesla Inc. has secured a new $5 billion revolving credit facility, another sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
European Outlook: Less Downside Now, But Caution Still Warranted
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Was Flat
The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined to 3. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Why the Fed Should Raise Rates by Half a Percent
Having oscillated between anticipating another 50-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve next week or a downshift to 25 basis points, traders have settled solidly on the latter, guided both by Fed officials’ comments and by media reports.
We Asked ChatGPT to Make a Market-Beating ETF. Here’s What Happened
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
$1 Trillion Green Investment Matches Fossil Fuels for First Time
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Big Oil Faces Headwinds After Record $199 Billion Profit Haul
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
China Reopening an Insignificant Factor for Germany So Far
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
Municipal Bonds: Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
How to Help Clients with Exit Planning
Formed in 2005 to serve educational and resource needs of professional business advisors, the Exit Planning Institute is a trendsetter in the field of exit planning for business owners across the globe. It is the only organization that offers the Certified Exit Planning Advisor Program (CEPA) and qualifies for continuing education credits with 12 major professional associations, making it the most widely endorsed professional exit planning program in the world.
Big Banks Told to Phase Out Financing of New Fossil-Fuel Projects
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
Crypto Is Worth Fixing. Regulators Should Get Moving
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
Economists Finally Have a Good Excuse for Being Wrong
It is possible, contrary to the predictions of most economists, that the US will get through this disinflationary period and make the proverbial “soft landing.”
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
Global Economic Outlook: Run-of-the-Mill
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Lessons from a Deeply Offensive Gaffe
No advisor would dream of engaging in the kind of behavior that occurred at Purdue University in early December.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Market Conditions Favor a Move Up in Credit Quality
Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joined Bloomberg TV in Davos to discuss the outlook for credit as recession nears.
From Inflation Reduction To Trade Friction
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Cathie Wood's ARKK Is Well on Way to One of Its Best Months Ever
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
Citadel's $16 Billion Win Tops Paulson's Greatest Trade Ever
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
What it Takes to Be an Elite Advisor
If you are competing with the best of the best, how do you rise above the competition?
IG Outlook: Positive Technicals, Deteriorating Fundamentals
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Nvidia to Win Big From ChatGPT Hype, Wall Street Predicts
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
The Crypto Crackdown Is Just Getting Started
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
CB LEI: 10th Consecutive Decline in December, Recession Signal Continues
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Common and Unique Threads of European Inflation
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Fortune Doesn’t Always Favor the Bold: The Perils of Concentrated Stock Positions
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
A Powerful New Tool Transforms How Billionaires Give Fortunes Away
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
China Stocks on Cusp of Bull Market as Year of the Tiger Ends
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.