BNY Mellon Wealth Management released its inaugural Charitable Giving Study a couple of weeks ago. It was a survey of 200 people with at least $5 million in AUM. It painted a vivid picture of high-net-worth investors’ behaviors, attitudes and experiences towards charitable giving. Some of the key findings included that only 56% had a charitable giving strategy, and that the top motivators for giving were personal satisfaction and connections. Here to discuss the findings of that study in Crystal Thompkins.
Global Markets
Portfolio Perspectives – Recession or Not, That’s the Question
Accelerated interest rate expectations, hotter than expected inflation, a protracted war in Ukraine and continued Chinese COVID uncertainty form a challenging backdrop for markets. As the earnings outlook deteriorates and global economic growth slows, the big R word is on everyone’s mind. Can the U.S. escape a recession should Europe and other key countries experience deteriorating real growth? Jon and Michelle will discuss the macroeconomic landscape and positioning portfolios for the current environment.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way for Shareholder Payouts
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Global Commodity Shock Enters Next Phase With Recession Test
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Assessing Inflation’s Effects Across Emerging Markets
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Putin’s Mask is Off. Europe is Next
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Time To Jump Aboard The Value Train
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
Wall Street South Gets Biggest Win in Griffin’s Grand Miami Plan
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Further Slowing in June
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
What Biden Should (and Shouldn’t) Do About Inflation
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Stocks Are Losing the Race With Bonds in Era of Tightening Fed
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
Tesla Said Readying Its China Factory for Even Greater Volumes
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
Reaching for Resilience
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
China Cheap Again
While much of the rest of the world is increasingly entrenched into bear market mode, Chinese equities are looking more and more interesting as China continues zigging while the rest of the world is zagging.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Zero Harm Farming and Mining
Headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, Incitec Pivot is a global leader in the materials sector with an unrelenting focus on Zero Harm, the expectation that its operations should never expose staff to harm or cause environmental incidents.
What Does 8% Yield Pay For?
The yield of the U.S. high yield (HY) market, currently at 8.4%, has risen by over 420 basis points since the start of the year.
An Established Case and Emerging Trends for Frontier Markets Equity Investing
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
Global Food Inflation Gets Reprieve as Wheat and Oilseeds Tumble
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
US Sanctions Help China Supercharge Its Chipmaking Industry
China’s chip industry is growing faster than anywhere else in the world, after US sanctions on local champions from Huawei Technologies Co. to Hikvision spurred appetite for home-grown components.
Elon Musk Says Tesla Job Cuts Will Reduce Workforce by 3.5%
Elon Musk confirmed the salaried workforce at Tesla Inc. would be cut by about 10% over the next three months.
Big Banks Led by JPMorgan Set to Return $80 Billion to Investors
US banking giants are poised to return $80 billion to shareholders after this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, less than last year’s elevated level that followed a pandemic-driven buyback pause.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Governance For Global Trade
The world needs a stronger World Trade Organization.
Private Equity’s Crisis First-Timers See Their Playbook Shredded
Private equity bosses are finding history to be a lousy guide as they hunt for clues on how to work through the turmoil in global markets.
Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Traders Weigh Monetary Tightening
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
An Active Week For Central Banks
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Inflation in Japan Should Be Cheered, Not Feared
Japan has been stuck in a low growth, low inflation (and at times, deflationary) environment.
CB LEI: Falls Again in May
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
Elizabeth Holmes’ Lesson for Target-Date Funds
In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.
World’s Central Banks Unleash Most Hawkish Campaign Since 1980s
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
For All Their Worries, Investors Are Piling Into US Stocks
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
Number of Underwater Russell 3000 Stocks Surges to Record
The number of Russell 3000 companies, excluding financial firms, trading below cash has surpassed the month-end record set during the global financial crisis.
The US Is Depleting Its Strategic Petroleum Reserve Faster Than It Looks
The US has become the world's oil barrel of last resort, single handedly keeping prices in the energy market from exploding even higher by selling a large chunk of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Chart of the Week: Is the US Dollar Poised to Enter a Bear Market?
US dollar cycles last an average of six to nine years, and we are approaching the tenth year of this dollar bull market.
The Bear Is Here
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
Everything You Wanted To Know About Bear Markets
Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina opens with one of the most famous lines in world literature: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
Tech Bear Market’s Latest Casualty Is Pandemic-Era Convertible Debt
The equity-linked debt of some of the pandemic’s darlings has plunged to record lows and is now considered distressed.
Bond Market Losses Just Beginning as Fed Sets Path to 4% Yields
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
Consumer Spending Is Running Out Of Steam and the Market Isn’t Ready For It
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
Closer Look: Postcard from Mexico
Mexico was the best-performing Latin American market in 2021 and our recent trip reinforced the reasons to remain bullish.
Nearly $16 Trillion in the Rear-View Mirror
A historic shift in central bank policy is currently underway. The implications of this change are likely to be varied and in some instances substantial.
Federal Reserve Must Do More Than Raise Rates by 75 Points
While the market chatter in the run-up to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision has understandably focused on whether the increase will be 50 or 75 basis points, the critical issue in play is a broader one.
June Swoon: U.S. Stocks Slip Into Bear-market Territory As Inflation Concerns Rattle Investors
After months of hand-wringing, U.S. indexes are now in bear-market territory across the board, down 20% from their most recent highs.
Three Surprising Lessons from Decades of Research
Here are the major takeaways from my two decades research into how advisors can more effectively work with prospects and clients.
The Next Generation of Video Marketing
Here’s how financial marketers can repurpose virtual meetings and video content.
Not Expensive, But Not Cheap Yet
One of the most interesting aspects of the past decade has been the divergence in valuations between the USA and the rest of the world.
The Future of Food is Technology
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Weekly Investment Strategy
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Big Tech’s Floor Collapses on Renewed Fears of Bigger Rate Hikes
The world’s biggest technology stocks are crumbling on Monday as broad markets enter into bear market territory amid fears the Federal Reserve will send the US economy into recession.
Tesla, MicroStrategy, Ark ETF Need to Capitulate Before Stocks Bottom
MicroStrategy Inc., ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund, Tesla Inc. and Twitter Inc. are what I’m watching to identify the ultimate capitulation point of this cycle.
Americans Are Building Vacation-Home Empires With Easy-Money Loans
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Utilizing Volatility Benchmarks In Building Long-short Stock Pairs
Applying volatility benchmarks correctly is the key to effective portfolio management.
Inflation Risk: Persistent or Transitory is the Wrong Question
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Tantrum Rip
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Red-Hot Lithium Boom Pits Wall Street Against the Wonks
There’s a fight brewing in the lithium market, after a controversial forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts set off a backlash among some of the industry’s most prominent experts.
Global Stock Rout Prompts Call for Back-to-Basics Investing
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
Semiconductors: A Less Cyclical Future
The proliferation of semiconductors throughout our economy may drive more durable, less cyclical demand and earnings.
Sobering News for ESG Investors
New research shows that positive returns to ESG portfolios from 2018-2020 were attributed to increased demand for “green“ stocks, raising the question of whether that outperformance will be sustained.
FOMC Preview
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
Oil Extends Losses Near $118 as Global Market Selloff Deepens
Oil extended losses for a third session as the prospect of further monetary tightening to combat surging US inflation sent global markets spiraling lower.
Bond Yields, Dollar Surge With Fed Bets as Recession Risk Grows
The hottest US inflation in four decades will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively this year, and a recession may not be far behind.
Bitcoin Tumbles to 18-Month Low After Latest DeFi Lender Blowup
Bitcoin plunged to the lowest in about 18 months after the freezing of withdrawals by the Celsius lending platform added to concern that systemic risk in the crypto ecosystem will accelerate the digital-asset market meltdown.
Hedge Funds Chasing ESG Billions Get Help From Researchers
Hedge funds eager to prove that short-selling is a legitimate ESG strategy just got some fresh material to back their case.
We’re Living in a Material World
Madonna was right. That iPhone on which you may be reading this article is far less important to society than the materials – like steel and plastic – that were used to build it.
Trends in Charitable Giving Among Wealthy Families
BNY Mellon Wealth Management released its inaugural Charitable Giving Study a couple of weeks ago. It was a survey of 200 people with at least $5 million in AUM. It painted a vivid picture of high-net-worth investors’ behaviors, attitudes and experiences towards charitable giving. Some of the key findings included that only 56% had a charitable giving strategy, and that the top motivators for giving were personal satisfaction and connections. Here to discuss the findings of that study in Crystal Thompkins.
‘Straightforward Bad’: Stock Investors React to Inflation Report
US consumer prices surged to a 40-year high, defying expectations that gains would start to moderate after the Federal Reserve began tightening.
Fed Seen Extending Steep Rate-Hike Path to Cool Heated Inflation
May’s red-hot inflation hardened expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates in half-point steps through September, with talk of an even larger move creeping into the conversation.
It’s Time to Get Biofuels Out of Your Gas Tank
The global trade in the cheapest foods is grinding to a halt.
Are We Headed for Recession? Gold and Bitcoin Could Offer Some Cover
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
Stagflation May Be Our Next Stop (but that is not what I am worried about)
I have been doing this long enough to know that the economy is a complex, self-adjusting mechanism, and thus the grim picture I have painted in this and previous articles may not play out.
US Inflation Quickens to 40-Year High, Pressuring Fed and Biden
US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.
That Chevy Feels A Lot Better Than a Tesla Right Now
Sedans are a rarity and electrics even more so. That’s even as pump prices are surging.
Does This CDO Come in Green? With ESG Everywhere, Buyers Beware
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.