Join Delaware Funds by Macquarie’s Co-Head of US Multisector Fixed Income, Daniela Mardarovici and Managing Director and Senior Fixed Income Strategist Paul Matlack, for a discussion about how to talk to clients about cash allocations.
A key measure of how much bond investors are compensated for holding long-term debt turned positive for the first time since June 2021, reflecting steep increases in longer-maturity Treasury yields.
The Fed sent a strong signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer, as our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai has long predicted. The Fed also started to acknowledge that the natural real rate of interest is higher than it thought.
Private infrastructure offers unique investment characteristics and potential diversification benefits for portfolio construction.
Investors have been increasingly allocating to various alternative investments. However, I don't see them as distinct assets deserving of allocations. As I discuss in my article below, I consider alternatives investment styles and as optional for portfolios as taste is for nutrition.
The aim of this series is to move beyond the simplistic example of goals that exist at a single point in the future to consider retirement, the most common purpose for long-term investing for an individual.
To judge by recent history, a US government shutdown won’t be a huge event for the bond market. If anything, it could even provide a little short-term relief, since Treasuries usually rally when investors need somewhere to hide.
It might be hard to believe after the crypto winter of 2022, but monetary tightening by global central banks could be supportive of Bitcoin upside.
Today, in a shock decision, the Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate at 5.25% by the tightest possible majority vote of 5-4. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that the BoE would raise the rate to 5.5%.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
Energy and Gold Produces Face Increasing Pressures, Crimping Supply.
We started RBA in 2009 primarily because we thought the US stock market was entering one of the biggest bull markets of our careers. However, most investors did not agree with our bullishness. Now, risk aversion seems a thing of the past.
Some seven weeks ago, hedge fund investor Bill Ackman laid out his rationale for shorting long-term US bonds, and I took exception.
Investment-grade credit is currently offering impressive yields, with relatively less risk than other fixed income sectors, according to Josh Lohmeier of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. He makes a case for investing in the space today.
I, however, like all Kens, have always had a firm grip on the remote for 100% of the time but I decided to let her have her way just once.
Many of the speakers and attendees were bullish on the physical metal, pointing to gold’s resilience in the face of a very strong U.S. dollar and multiyear-high yields.
The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?
Over the last 100 years, the US equity market has returned about 9% annually. What will it return over the next 100 years?
The resilience of the world’s biggest bond market is top priority as US debt officials prepare to start buying back government debt, according to Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets.
While some stocks may seem expensive, there are areas of opportunity that feature attractive valuations and growth catalysts, according to the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
Treasury 10-year yields rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2007 as a more hawkish Federal Reserve adds to concern the bonds face a toxic mix of large US fiscal deficits and persistent inflation.
The yield on the 10-year note ended September 22, 2023 at 4.44%, the 2-year note ended at 5.10%, and the 30-year at 4.53%.
Investment bankers were finally starting to believe in the green shoots of capital-markets activity this month, but the Federal Reserve might now have crushed them under hawkish boots.
Low interest rates can lead people to rationalize all sorts of bad ideas: investing in companies that will never make a profit, financing share buybacks with debt, spending billions on terrible streaming content, to name a few.
A bad week on Wall Street turned dismal Thursday after the relentless surge in Treasury yields sapped demand for risk assets. In the end, US stocks suffered the biggest drop in six months as investors recalibrate for a world where rates sit at levels not seen in a generation.
The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for the 17th consecutive month in August as economic uncertainty and recession fears continue to grow. The index dropped 0.4% from last month to 105.4, the index's lowest reading since June 2020.
Bond traders are bracing for Treasury yields to keep pushing higher after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s likely to hold interest rates at lofty levels well into next year.
BlackRock Inc. and other money managers spent years rolling out sustainable funds, seeking to capitalize on surging interest in ESG investing. Now they’re abandoning an increasing number of those products in the US amid political backlash and investor scrutiny.
Can the economy grow 2.0% to 2.5% faster per year over the next 10 years than the last 30 years? I don't think so.
The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.
Inverted curves (when the gold line goes below the red line meaning that short maturity yields are higher compared to longer maturity yields) have preceded recessions.
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believe that issuers that think critically about the environment in which they operate could outperform throughout the full market cycle compared with those who are slower to adapt.
Whatever stories Americans are told about the strength of the economy under President Joe Biden, they are not going to be persuaded to look past the issue of their own living standards. For most Americans, these have declined somewhat as price increases have outpaced wage growth.
Banks have reemerged as a potential pain point for the investment community, as rating agencies recently embarked on a downgrade cycle in the sector.
To widen your audience, deepen client bonds, and carve out a strong market presence, a webinar strategy is your ticket to success.
For new investors, the world of finance can appear daunting. But among the sea of investment options, Treasury bonds (often just called “Treasuries”) are a pillar of stability and reliability.
Given the uncertainty over a recession, there are other incremental steps that investors may want to consider instead. These include making adjustments to a portfolio’s market beta and credit exposure.
Celebrating an exciting milestone: Franklin Income Fund turns 75. Learn more about this flagship strategy and read some fun facts from back in 1948.
The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate.
These days, high-yield US bonds yield just 378 basis points over Treasuries, more than 2 percentage points below the 2022 high and close to the narrowest gap since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates last year.
Fifty cents on the dollar is a very low price in the world of bonds. In most cases, it signals that investors believe the seller of the debt is in such financial distress that it could default.
Now seems like a good time to talk about wrappers and which ones are best for different situations. How do you decide whether to use an ETF, a mutual fund, or something else?
When markets are in a rising tide, all boats (aka stocks) can benefit. When the waters are choppier, active equity selection aims to identify the sounder vessels. Tony DeSpirito reviews five reasons why he believes the new environment is setting up to favor an active approach.
Confidence is returning to the bond markets and one sign is corporations’ willingness to start taking on debt again with new issuance.
Managing volatility is a high priority for advisors. The right investments can stabilize a portfolio and dampen volatility, while keeping goals on track. Increasing bond allocations used to be the standard way to reduce volatility, but with bonds more correlated to equities, their diversification value has decreased. With high inflation, bonds also aren’t providing enough real income for many investors.
Demand for private credit has increased because of its low correlation to traditional equities and bonds, and enhanced income potential. As an asset class, private credit has a history of resiliency throughout economic downturns. That was true during the pandemic, and last year when these types of loans largely held up, in contrast to the bond market which had historically bad performance.
My guest today will discuss how advisors can reduce volatility, increase income and diversify equity and bond allocations through private credit and other alternatives.
Here’s how I apply behavioral finance to help clients to think differently about their investing.
Warren Buffett has advised investors to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful. New research confirms Buffett’s admonition.
Credit Research Analysts Greg Schantz and Julian Wellesley dive into why they favor European banks vs US banks and why they see a potential opportunity in Yankee bank bonds.
Economists are playing a game of “can-you-top-this this,” seeing who can ramp up their US economic growth forecasts the most.
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
Today, I am going to do something that I've never done. I am going to start a two-part series describing what is in my personal portfolio and why. Let me start by offering two caveats: This letter is in the “do as I say and not as I do” category.
Bridgewater Associates LP founder Ray Dalio said he doesn’t want to own bonds and prefers cash, highlighting difficulties investors face as global central banks try to manage inflation.
If held until the bond is redeemed (either by call or maturity), the annual yield earned for the life of a bond is known upfront at the time of purchase. Knowing the return on an investment upfront makes long-term financial planning a much easier task.
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely to shy away from signaling that they’re done raising interest rates when they meet next week.
Municipals posted negative total returns amid rising interest rates. Issuance exceeded tempered expectations, while demand waned as performance struggled.
The consensus is wrong, and the Fed has not engineered a “soft landing.” A recession is all but certain in the first half of next year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
A resilient US economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to pencil in one more interest-rate hike this year and stay at the peak level next year for longer than previously expected, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
Touchstone Investments now has six actively managed ETFs. It seeks to bring its “distinctively active” mutual fund approach to meet advisors where they are focused.
That’s a bold prediction in the title. I believe it will come true.
A recent paper analyzing the correlation between stock and bond returns going back to 1875 suggests the relationship of the past quarter century is shifting in an uncertain inflationary environment. The results might stimulate some investors to rethink their portfolio allocations.
The US bond market hasn’t flashed recession warnings so consistently for so long in at least six decades.
ETFs are the instrument of choice for millions of investors in the U.S. Through a single trade and for a relatively low price, an investor gains broad exposure to a market, sector or niche.
For the savvy private wealth investor, portfolio diversity is key to success. Investing in infrastructure is one option that can help you both optimize your portfolio and make a positive and meaningful impact on your local community.
Normalizing economic activity and the slow but steadily growing lag effect will result in a recession.
Since the beginning of the year, economic data has continued to defy the recession calls of 2022.
A flurry of hedge funds, direct lenders and others are expecting a revival of the $1.3 trillion collateralized loan obligation market — and they want to be ready to reap the benefits when it happens.
The US government has been looking at ways to offload nearly $13 billion of mortgage bonds it amassed from failed lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, according to people with knowledge of the transactions.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports. Should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person.
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses economic and geopolitical factors shaping the long-term global outlook.
Higher yields on cash have allowed some de-risking.
Municipal bonds are an often overlooked corner of the fixed income space. Because they are tax exempt, munis give investors efficient, low-risk income. Join the experts at Goldman Sachs and VettaFi for a webcast discussing a muni strategy that prioritizes 1-to-15-year maturities within the investment grade municipal bond universe.
Concern over China’s sputtering economy has created a “dramatic shift” in investors’ equity allocation — a rush toward the US and an exodus from emerging markets, Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey showed.
We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.
In September, where volatility can strike at any time, investors will want the safety cushion of bonds for their portfolio. At the same time, short duration continues to be the default play as the U.S. Federal Reserve still attempts to cool down inflation further.
The U.S. dollar has dropped to its lowest level against other currencies in 15 months. In this environment, a wide range of assets stand to profit, not least of which is the AI-infused U.S. technology sector. However, no space stands more ready to benefit from this environment than emerging markets..
Today's economic conditions are attractive for BDCs (business development companies), and some benefit from businesses seeking alternative financing sources.
Many boomers are invested in target-date funds that are not safe and do not provide the protection they desire.
Morgan Stanley has pushed back against Treasury bears, saying investors should buy US sovereign debt as markets may be too optimistic over the prospect of a soft-landing for the economy.
High-yield bonds, often referred to as “junk” or “speculative grade,” are corporate bonds that command a higher interest rate than other bonds. This higher yield is essentially compensation for the increased risk of default that investors assume when purchasing these securities.
On the interest rate front, the Federal funds rate is now close to systematic benchmarks that have historically been consistent with prevailing core inflation, nominal GDP growth, and unemployment.
Vanguard has forecasted that inflation will remain sticky, so the U.S. central bank will continue raising rates. But the investment giant also estimates that a recession still won’t hit the U.S. this year.
Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, at Franklin Templeton Institute, shares some takeaways from a panel discussion on the topic.
When you step back and think about it, it is hard to believe that this hugely important retirement benefit has only been around for just over 40 years.
The rising threat of interest rates staying higher for longer is likely to dent prospects of a soft landing for the US economy and drive a selloff in stocks over the next two months, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
I write a few newsletters, and I frequently get feedback from my subscribers. Sometimes, they’re just saying hello, and sometimes, they’re ripping on me, but sometimes, they’re telling me about things they see in the economy that are of interest.
Diversifying a portfolio means spreading the investments across a variety of asset classes, industries and geographies.
As soft-landing calls engulf Wall Street, traders are betting that a market calm will endure across investing strategies — despite the latest selloff in US stocks and bonds.
Municipal Bonds
Bonds are back: Time to move cash off the sidelines
Join Delaware Funds by Macquarie’s Co-Head of US Multisector Fixed Income, Daniela Mardarovici and Managing Director and Senior Fixed Income Strategist Paul Matlack, for a discussion about how to talk to clients about cash allocations.
Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021
A key measure of how much bond investors are compensated for holding long-term debt turned positive for the first time since June 2021, reflecting steep increases in longer-maturity Treasury yields.
On My Mind: Restrictive? We’ll know it when we see it.
The Fed sent a strong signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer, as our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai has long predicted. The Fed also started to acknowledge that the natural real rate of interest is higher than it thought.
Unlisted Infrastructure – Highway to Diversification
Private infrastructure offers unique investment characteristics and potential diversification benefits for portfolio construction.
Treat Alternatives Like Cuisines, Not Distinct Assets
Investors have been increasingly allocating to various alternative investments. However, I don't see them as distinct assets deserving of allocations. As I discuss in my article below, I consider alternatives investment styles and as optional for portfolios as taste is for nutrition.
Long-Horizon Investing, Part 1: A Ton of Feathers
The aim of this series is to move beyond the simplistic example of goals that exist at a single point in the future to consider retirement, the most common purpose for long-term investing for an individual.
Bond Traders Roiled by Fed See US Shutdown as Next Big Wild Card
To judge by recent history, a US government shutdown won’t be a huge event for the bond market. If anything, it could even provide a little short-term relief, since Treasuries usually rally when investors need somewhere to hide.
Monetary Tightening Might Boost Bitcoin, Says Crypto Expert
It might be hard to believe after the crypto winter of 2022, but monetary tightening by global central banks could be supportive of Bitcoin upside.
Bank of England: A surprise end to UK rate hikes?
Today, in a shock decision, the Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate at 5.25% by the tightest possible majority vote of 5-4. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that the BoE would raise the rate to 5.5%.
Global Economic Outlook: China Casts a Shadow in the East…and West
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
Biden Administration Expands War on Critical Natural Resources
Energy and Gold Produces Face Increasing Pressures, Crimping Supply.
Investors’ Shift From Fear to Greed Presents Historic Opportunities
We started RBA in 2009 primarily because we thought the US stock market was entering one of the biggest bull markets of our careers. However, most investors did not agree with our bullishness. Now, risk aversion seems a thing of the past.
Ackman Doubles Down on Bond Short That’s Still Flawed
Some seven weeks ago, hedge fund investor Bill Ackman laid out his rationale for shorting long-term US bonds, and I took exception.
Opportunity in Investment-Grade Credit
Investment-grade credit is currently offering impressive yields, with relatively less risk than other fixed income sectors, according to Josh Lohmeier of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. He makes a case for investing in the space today.
Call Me Ken
I, however, like all Kens, have always had a firm grip on the remote for 100% of the time but I decided to let her have her way just once.
Why Junior Gold Stocks Could Be Gearing Up For A Glittering Performance
Many of the speakers and attendees were bullish on the physical metal, pointing to gold’s resilience in the face of a very strong U.S. dollar and multiyear-high yields.
Quarterly Market Outlook: A Delicate Balance
The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?
The Next 100 Years
Over the last 100 years, the US equity market has returned about 9% annually. What will it return over the next 100 years?
Treasury Buyback Plan Will Boost Market Resilience, US Debt Official Says
The resilience of the world’s biggest bond market is top priority as US debt officials prepare to start buying back government debt, according to Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets.
Where to Add Risk in Multi-Asset Portfolios Right Now
While some stocks may seem expensive, there are areas of opportunity that feature attractive valuations and growth catalysts, according to the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
Another Yield High as US 10-Year Jumps Above Key 4.5% Level in Post-Fed Bond Rout
Treasury 10-year yields rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2007 as a more hawkish Federal Reserve adds to concern the bonds face a toxic mix of large US fiscal deficits and persistent inflation.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 22, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended September 22, 2023 at 4.44%, the 2-year note ended at 5.10%, and the 30-year at 4.53%.
Did Powell Just Stamp Out Bankers’ Green Shoots?
Investment bankers were finally starting to believe in the green shoots of capital-markets activity this month, but the Federal Reserve might now have crushed them under hawkish boots.
Private Equity Won’t Diversify Your Portfolio
Low interest rates can lead people to rationalize all sorts of bad ideas: investing in companies that will never make a profit, financing share buybacks with debt, spending billions on terrible streaming content, to name a few.
Stocks Sink Most in Six Months After Recent Runup in Treasury Yields
A bad week on Wall Street turned dismal Thursday after the relentless surge in Treasury yields sapped demand for risk assets. In the end, US stocks suffered the biggest drop in six months as investors recalibrate for a world where rates sit at levels not seen in a generation.
Fed Pauses but Projects One More Hike This Year
The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.
CB Leading Economic Index Declines, Deepening Recession Fears
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for the 17th consecutive month in August as economic uncertainty and recession fears continue to grow. The index dropped 0.4% from last month to 105.4, the index's lowest reading since June 2020.
Bond Traders See Yields Marching Higher After September Fed Meeting
Bond traders are bracing for Treasury yields to keep pushing higher after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s likely to hold interest rates at lofty levels well into next year.
BlackRock, State Street Among Money Managers Closing ESG Funds
BlackRock Inc. and other money managers spent years rolling out sustainable funds, seeking to capitalize on surging interest in ESG investing. Now they’re abandoning an increasing number of those products in the US amid political backlash and investor scrutiny.
This Time is Not Different. Yields are Too High
Can the economy grow 2.0% to 2.5% faster per year over the next 10 years than the last 30 years? I don't think so.
ECB Prioritizes Fighting Inflation Above Avoiding Recession
The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.
To the Point!
Inverted curves (when the gold line goes below the red line meaning that short maturity yields are higher compared to longer maturity yields) have preceded recessions.
Weathering the Storm: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation and the Investor’s Imperative
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believe that issuers that think critically about the environment in which they operate could outperform throughout the full market cycle compared with those who are slower to adapt.
Down on the Biden Economy
Whatever stories Americans are told about the strength of the economy under President Joe Biden, they are not going to be persuaded to look past the issue of their own living standards. For most Americans, these have declined somewhat as price increases have outpaced wage growth.
Do We Really Need to Be Worried About the Banking Sector?
Banks have reemerged as a potential pain point for the investment community, as rating agencies recently embarked on a downgrade cycle in the sector.
Boost Client Engagement and Growth with Webinars
To widen your audience, deepen client bonds, and carve out a strong market presence, a webinar strategy is your ticket to success.
The ABCs of Treasury Bonds
For new investors, the world of finance can appear daunting. But among the sea of investment options, Treasury bonds (often just called “Treasuries”) are a pillar of stability and reliability.
A Recession Is Possible, but Far From Certain. So How Should You Consider Positioning Your Portfolio?
Given the uncertainty over a recession, there are other incremental steps that investors may want to consider instead. These include making adjustments to a portfolio’s market beta and credit exposure.
A Pioneering Income Strategy Celebrates 75 Years
Celebrating an exciting milestone: Franklin Income Fund turns 75. Learn more about this flagship strategy and read some fun facts from back in 1948.
Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot
The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate.
Bond Mountaineers Easily Scale the Maturity Wall
These days, high-yield US bonds yield just 378 basis points over Treasuries, more than 2 percentage points below the 2022 high and close to the narrowest gap since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates last year.
Sub-50 Cent Price on Treasury Bond Underscores Investor Pain
Fifty cents on the dollar is a very low price in the world of bonds. In most cases, it signals that investors believe the seller of the debt is in such financial distress that it could default.
VettaFi Voices On: Choosing Your Wrapper
Now seems like a good time to talk about wrappers and which ones are best for different situations. How do you decide whether to use an ETF, a mutual fund, or something else?
5 Factors Favoring Stock Selection
When markets are in a rising tide, all boats (aka stocks) can benefit. When the waters are choppier, active equity selection aims to identify the sounder vessels. Tony DeSpirito reviews five reasons why he believes the new environment is setting up to favor an active approach.
Get Active Exposure as Corporate Confidence Returns in Bonds
Confidence is returning to the bond markets and one sign is corporations’ willingness to start taking on debt again with new issuance.
The Outlook for Alternative Investments
Managing volatility is a high priority for advisors. The right investments can stabilize a portfolio and dampen volatility, while keeping goals on track. Increasing bond allocations used to be the standard way to reduce volatility, but with bonds more correlated to equities, their diversification value has decreased. With high inflation, bonds also aren’t providing enough real income for many investors.
Demand for private credit has increased because of its low correlation to traditional equities and bonds, and enhanced income potential. As an asset class, private credit has a history of resiliency throughout economic downturns. That was true during the pandemic, and last year when these types of loans largely held up, in contrast to the bond market which had historically bad performance.
My guest today will discuss how advisors can reduce volatility, increase income and diversify equity and bond allocations through private credit and other alternatives.
How I Apply Behavioral Finance to Achieve Better Client Outcomes
Here’s how I apply behavioral finance to help clients to think differently about their investing.
Buffett was Right About Sentiment and the VIX as Predictors of Returns
Warren Buffett has advised investors to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful. New research confirms Buffett’s admonition.
Shifting Trends Favor European Banks vs. US Banks for the First Time in Years
Credit Research Analysts Greg Schantz and Julian Wellesley dive into why they favor European banks vs US banks and why they see a potential opportunity in Yankee bank bonds.
Bidenomics Is Having an Unusual Effect on Deficits
Economists are playing a game of “can-you-top-this this,” seeing who can ramp up their US economic growth forecasts the most.
Schwab Market Perspective: Tension
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
What's in My Personal Portfolio?
Today, I am going to do something that I've never done. I am going to start a two-part series describing what is in my personal portfolio and why. Let me start by offering two caveats: This letter is in the “do as I say and not as I do” category.
Ray Dalio Says He Doesn’t Want to Hold Bonds, Cash ‘Is Good’
Bridgewater Associates LP founder Ray Dalio said he doesn’t want to own bonds and prefers cash, highlighting difficulties investors face as global central banks try to manage inflation.
Locking in Target Returns
If held until the bond is redeemed (either by call or maturity), the annual yield earned for the life of a bond is known upfront at the time of purchase. Knowing the return on an investment upfront makes long-term financial planning a much easier task.
Why Global Bonds Make Sense for US Investors
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Fed Is Likely to Shy Away From Calling Interest-Rate Peak Next Week
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely to shy away from signaling that they’re done raising interest rates when they meet next week.
Munis Fall Short Of Seasonal Expectations In August
Municipals posted negative total returns amid rising interest rates. Issuance exceeded tempered expectations, while demand waned as performance struggled.
Gundlach: There Will be a Recession in the First Half of 2024
The consensus is wrong, and the Fed has not engineered a “soft landing.” A recession is all but certain in the first half of next year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
Fed Seen Signaling One More Hike and Pushing Out 2024 Rate Cuts
A resilient US economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to pencil in one more interest-rate hike this year and stay at the peak level next year for longer than previously expected, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Inflation Is Coming Down. Will Treasury Yields Be Next?
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
Touchstone’s Active ETF Lineup Is Focused on Income
Touchstone Investments now has six actively managed ETFs. It seeks to bring its “distinctively active” mutual fund approach to meet advisors where they are focused.
The Fed Will Cut Rates in 2024
That’s a bold prediction in the title. I believe it will come true.
What Shifting Stock-Bond Correlations Mean for Your Money
A recent paper analyzing the correlation between stock and bond returns going back to 1875 suggests the relationship of the past quarter century is shifting in an uncertain inflationary environment. The results might stimulate some investors to rethink their portfolio allocations.
The Bond Market Has Never Sounded Recession Alarms for This Long
The US bond market hasn’t flashed recession warnings so consistently for so long in at least six decades.
What’s the Right Price for an ETF?
ETFs are the instrument of choice for millions of investors in the U.S. Through a single trade and for a relatively low price, an investor gains broad exposure to a market, sector or niche.
Impact of Local Infrastructure Investments on a Portfolio
For the savvy private wealth investor, portfolio diversity is key to success. Investing in infrastructure is one option that can help you both optimize your portfolio and make a positive and meaningful impact on your local community.
The Lag Effect Will Trigger a Recession
Normalizing economic activity and the slow but steadily growing lag effect will result in a recession.
Economic Data Points Diverge
Since the beginning of the year, economic data has continued to defy the recession calls of 2022.
New CLO Managers Eye $1.3 Trillion Market, Betting on Return
A flurry of hedge funds, direct lenders and others are expecting a revival of the $1.3 trillion collateralized loan obligation market — and they want to be ready to reap the benefits when it happens.
US Is Looking to Offload Nearly $13 Billion of MBS Seized From SVB and Signature
The US government has been looking at ways to offload nearly $13 billion of mortgage bonds it amassed from failed lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, according to people with knowledge of the transactions.
Fewer Losers, or More Winners?
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports. Should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person.
Shifting Macro Trends in the Aftershock Economy
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses economic and geopolitical factors shaping the long-term global outlook.
Higher Rates: Positive Values
Higher yields on cash have allowed some de-risking.
Why Municipal Bonds Matter
Municipal bonds are an often overlooked corner of the fixed income space. Because they are tax exempt, munis give investors efficient, low-risk income. Join the experts at Goldman Sachs and VettaFi for a webcast discussing a muni strategy that prioritizes 1-to-15-year maturities within the investment grade municipal bond universe.
BofA Survey Shows ‘Dramatic Shift’ Toward High-Flying US Stocks
Concern over China’s sputtering economy has created a “dramatic shift” in investors’ equity allocation — a rush toward the US and an exodus from emerging markets, Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey showed.
Treasury Yields: Where Do They Go From Here?
We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.
Look No Further for Active, Short-Term Exposure to Bonds
In September, where volatility can strike at any time, investors will want the safety cushion of bonds for their portfolio. At the same time, short duration continues to be the default play as the U.S. Federal Reserve still attempts to cool down inflation further.
Emerging Markets and a Falling Dollar: Risk Assets Around the World Stand to Benefit from a Weaker U.S. Currency
The U.S. dollar has dropped to its lowest level against other currencies in 15 months. In this environment, a wide range of assets stand to profit, not least of which is the AI-infused U.S. technology sector. However, no space stands more ready to benefit from this environment than emerging markets..
High Rates and Lower Bank Lending May Lift BDCs
Today's economic conditions are attractive for BDCs (business development companies), and some benefit from businesses seeking alternative financing sources.
Coming Soon: Revenge of the Baby Boomers
Many boomers are invested in target-date funds that are not safe and do not provide the protection they desire.
Morgan Stanley ‘Last Bull Standing’ on Treasuries as Peers Shift
Morgan Stanley has pushed back against Treasury bears, saying investors should buy US sovereign debt as markets may be too optimistic over the prospect of a soft-landing for the economy.
Understanding High-Yield Bonds
High-yield bonds, often referred to as “junk” or “speculative grade,” are corporate bonds that command a higher interest rate than other bonds. This higher yield is essentially compensation for the increased risk of default that investors assume when purchasing these securities.
Central Bankers Wandering in the Woods
On the interest rate front, the Federal funds rate is now close to systematic benchmarks that have historically been consistent with prevailing core inflation, nominal GDP growth, and unemployment.
Why Longer Treasury ETFs Could Help if a Recession Does Occur This Year
Vanguard has forecasted that inflation will remain sticky, so the U.S. central bank will continue raising rates. But the investment giant also estimates that a recession still won’t hit the U.S. this year.
Investment Ideas—Building Portfolios During Economic Uncertainty
Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, at Franklin Templeton Institute, shares some takeaways from a panel discussion on the topic.
Remember These Investing Concepts When Planning Your Future
When you step back and think about it, it is hard to believe that this hugely important retirement benefit has only been around for just over 40 years.
BofA’s Hartnett Says Higher-for-Longer Rates Set to Hurt Stocks
The rising threat of interest rates staying higher for longer is likely to dent prospects of a soft landing for the US economy and drive a selloff in stocks over the next two months, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
The Email Beige Book
I write a few newsletters, and I frequently get feedback from my subscribers. Sometimes, they’re just saying hello, and sometimes, they’re ripping on me, but sometimes, they’re telling me about things they see in the economy that are of interest.
Building Resilient Portfolios: The Power of Diversification
Diversifying a portfolio means spreading the investments across a variety of asset classes, industries and geographies.
Traders Unfazed as Soft-Landing Calls Stoke Bets on Market Calm
As soft-landing calls engulf Wall Street, traders are betting that a market calm will endure across investing strategies — despite the latest selloff in US stocks and bonds.