As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
The US Treasury held steady its quarterly sales of longer-term debt, matching widespread expectations among bond dealers, given the standoff in Washington over expanding the government’s borrowing authority.
Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast is appreciated as a bit of inconsequential fun; nobody takes it too seriously. Unfortunately, that’s not the case on Wall Street.
Behind closed doors, Federal Reserve policy makers worry rallying markets are impeding their efforts to control inflation. But every time Jerome Powell goes out in public he gives them more room to run.
The market has high hopes for the Fed, however, comparing this to the Fed’s own expectations, we see a very different narrative.
I chose the topic for this month’s Absolute Return Letter during the Christmas break.
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
This year’s 40% rally in Bitcoin is heading toward a potentially big test in the shape of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed January with a monthly gain of 6.18%, it's highest since 2019, after a loss of 5.9% in December. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, one of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
A slowdown in US economic activity this year is likely to impact most states, which could face budget deficits, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bonds.
RIAs will be more financially successful, will retain and attract more investment assets, and will produce superior financial results for their retiree clients when they embrace new thinking that begins with the acknowledgment that, in practice, the safe withdrawal rate is a fiction.
Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
US dollar cycles are long.
Tesla Inc. has secured a new $5 billion revolving credit facility, another sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Some of the biggest investors in US commercial real estate are looking to cash in before property values slide further.
European policymakers face a dilemma: continue to hike interest rates to combat inflation or ease off to stimulate growth.
Overnight, traders pressed the Bank of Japan again on its Yield Curve Control (YCC).
I learned a lot in 2022. Here were my biggest epiphanies.
It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.
In 1817, David Ricardo developed his theory of comparative advantage to explain why countries engage in trade together, even when one country has an absolute advantage.
Wall Street bond dealers are moving rapidly to the sidelines of US Treasury auctions — the very activity that defines their status at the heart of the world’s biggest bond market.
As a financial coach whose mission is to talk fee-only advisors “off the fence” of procrastination, I frequently answer two questions.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
One of the most lucrative money-making machines in the world of finance is all clogged up, threatening a year of pain for Wall Street banks and private-equity barons as a decade-long deal boom goes bust.
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
Big global banks are eying some of the world’s most fragile countries for a new experiment in financial engineering: debt relief in exchange for environmental protections.
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Demand for Europe’s debt sales has topped half a trillion euros already this year as investors seek to put money to work in bonds offering some of the highest yields in years.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is making a $1 billion wager that small private equity firms without the heft of the biggest buyout institutions can boost the pension giant’s returns and clout.
2022 was a rough year for fixed income, but we anticipate better days ahead as the Fed will likely keep rates elevated in its ongoing battle against inflation.
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
Exchange-traded fund investors are piling into bets on junk bonds as the securities start the year with a strong comeback.
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
Tight monetary policy and rising government debt will drive a regime of high interest rates, depressing stock prices and destroying the wealth of clients, most severely those at or near retirement.
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
Build your ladder with multiple target-maturity ETFs representing different segments of the bond market, with different target years.
In the rough year ahead, bonds might be one of the only bright spots. It would mark a dramatic turnaround from 2022, when bonds fell alongside almost every other asset class, posting their worst year in a generation.
The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
European governments are set to unleash a deluge of bonds into markets this year. Investors will demand either a further shift higher in yields or a substantial improvement in the region’s inflation outlook to digest the coming wave of supply...
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Municipal Bond Strategist Jim Grabovac shares his views on outflows, trends and opportunities in the municipal sector.
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
Municipal Bonds
The FOMC Won’t Blink
As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
US Keeps Quarterly Debt Sales Steady Ahead of Debt-Limit Endgame
The US Treasury held steady its quarterly sales of longer-term debt, matching widespread expectations among bond dealers, given the standoff in Washington over expanding the government’s borrowing authority.
Beware of Wall Street's Groundhog Predictions
Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast is appreciated as a bit of inconsequential fun; nobody takes it too seriously. Unfortunately, that’s not the case on Wall Street.
The More Powell Spoke, the More Stock and Bond Markets Rallied
Behind closed doors, Federal Reserve policy makers worry rallying markets are impeding their efforts to control inflation. But every time Jerome Powell goes out in public he gives them more room to run.
What to Watch
The market has high hopes for the Fed, however, comparing this to the Fed’s own expectations, we see a very different narrative.
Is the Bubble About to Burst?
I chose the topic for this month’s Absolute Return Letter during the Christmas break.
Wall Street's Feel-Good Start to 2023 Sets Up Perilous Fed Day
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
Bitcoin Is About to Test the Adage 'Don't Fight the Fed'
This year’s 40% rally in Bitcoin is heading toward a potentially big test in the shape of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision.
Moving Averages: S&P Closes Month Up 6.18%, Best January Finish Since 2019
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed January with a monthly gain of 6.18%, it's highest since 2019, after a loss of 5.9% in December. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, one of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
US Budget Season Implications for the Muni Market
A slowdown in US economic activity this year is likely to impact most states, which could face budget deficits, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bonds.
The Fiction of Safe Withdrawal Rates
RIAs will be more financially successful, will retain and attract more investment assets, and will produce superior financial results for their retiree clients when they embrace new thinking that begins with the acknowledgment that, in practice, the safe withdrawal rate is a fiction.
10 Macroeconomic Themes for 2023
Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
4Q 2022 GMO Quarterly Letter
2022 was a painful year in financial markets with almost all traditional assets delivering significant losses.
Top Bond Fund Bets Markets Are Wrong on Rates, Again
After successful bets against the world’s major bond markets paid off in 2022, a BlueBay Asset Management fund is positioned for another debt selloff this year.
Stocks Decreasing to Start the Busy Week
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Fed's Wall Street Clash Sets Stage for Powell’s Hawkish Message
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Investors Flock to European Stocks Leaving US Behind, BofA Says
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Stagflation! Is Now the time to buy Precious Metals
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
Tesla Gets $5 Billion Credit Line in Sign It's Nearing Investment-Grade Status
Tesla Inc. has secured a new $5 billion revolving credit facility, another sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
European Outlook: Less Downside Now, But Caution Still Warranted
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
Municipal Bonds: Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
Big Banks Told to Phase Out Financing of New Fossil-Fuel Projects
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
1099 Season – An Opportunity for Tax-Aware Advisors
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
What Would an Early Biden Departure Mean for Markets?
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
Investing With a Flat Yield Curve
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The 2 Trillion Reasons Why Fed Tightening Isn't So Scary
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
IG Outlook: Positive Technicals, Deteriorating Fundamentals
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Treasury Snapshot: January 20, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
What the US Debt-Ceiling Battle Means for Your Money
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Quarterly Letter – January 2023
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
Strategic Income Outlook: Was This a Crazy Year or What?
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
Global Bond Sales Off to Record Start of Nearly $600 Billion
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Macro Hedge Funds Had a Banner Year. Can They Stage an Encore?
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
EM Debt Outlook: China Takes Center Stage
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
Investors Risk Making a Classic Portfolio Mistake
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Investors Seek to Pull $20 Billion From Core Real Estate Funds
Some of the biggest investors in US commercial real estate are looking to cash in before property values slide further.
Weakening Growth Outlook to Eventually Favor Euro Rate Risk
European policymakers face a dilemma: continue to hike interest rates to combat inflation or ease off to stimulate growth.
Obituary: Yield Curve Control
Overnight, traders pressed the Bank of Japan again on its Yield Curve Control (YCC).
My Biggest Epiphanies in 2022
I learned a lot in 2022. Here were my biggest epiphanies.
Areté Market Review Q422: Cash is King-ish
It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.
4Q22 International Value Strategy
In 1817, David Ricardo developed his theory of comparative advantage to explain why countries engage in trade together, even when one country has an absolute advantage.
Wall Street Dealers Become Bit Players in US Bond Sales
Wall Street bond dealers are moving rapidly to the sidelines of US Treasury auctions — the very activity that defines their status at the heart of the world’s biggest bond market.
The Two Client Questions Advisors Must Be Able to Answer
As a financial coach whose mission is to talk fee-only advisors “off the fence” of procrastination, I frequently answer two questions.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
Wall Street's Lucrative Leveraged-Debt Machine Is Breaking Down
One of the most lucrative money-making machines in the world of finance is all clogged up, threatening a year of pain for Wall Street banks and private-equity barons as a decade-long deal boom goes bust.
Global Credit Outlook: Cautious on Turbulence & Technicals
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
Wall Street's New ESG Money-Maker Promises Nature Conservation - With a Catch
Big global banks are eying some of the world’s most fragile countries for a new experiment in financial engineering: debt relief in exchange for environmental protections.
Equity Outlook: The Times They Are A-Changin’
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
2023 Municipal Bond Playbook: A Page from the 1990s
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
Stocks Falling in Wake of Mixed Banking Results
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
Stocks Grappling With December Inflation Report
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
The Year in Review: Wealthspire Advisors 2022 Q4 Review
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
Top US Banks Slash Bond Sales, a Bright Spot for Investors
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Europe Debt Demand Is Already at Half a Trillion Dollars in 2023
Demand for Europe’s debt sales has topped half a trillion euros already this year as investors seek to put money to work in bonds offering some of the highest yields in years.
Equities Are Searching for Clarity
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
Calpers Makes $1 Billion Bet on Small Funds as New CIO Reshapes Pension
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is making a $1 billion wager that small private equity firms without the heft of the biggest buyout institutions can boost the pension giant’s returns and clout.
Total Return Outlook: Can I Have Another (Rate Hike)?
2022 was a rough year for fixed income, but we anticipate better days ahead as the Fed will likely keep rates elevated in its ongoing battle against inflation.
Gundlach: Bonds are Much Cheaper than Stocks
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
Biggest Junk-Bond ETF Draws Most Cash Since 2020 as Debt Rallies
Exchange-traded fund investors are piling into bets on junk bonds as the securities start the year with a strong comeback.
The Dangers of Monte Carlo Simulations
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
Plan for More Wealth Destruction
Tight monetary policy and rising government debt will drive a regime of high interest rates, depressing stock prices and destroying the wealth of clients, most severely those at or near retirement.
When Old Rules Break Down, Consider a New Investing Approach
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
A Primer for Clients to Invest in Commodities
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Stay High Quality in 2023
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
Is It Time To Rethink The 60/40 Portfolio?
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
How to Build a Bond Ladder Using ETFs
Build your ladder with multiple target-maturity ETFs representing different segments of the bond market, with different target years.
Here Are the Top ETFs for Retail Investors in 2023
In the rough year ahead, bonds might be one of the only bright spots. It would mark a dramatic turnaround from 2022, when bonds fell alongside almost every other asset class, posting their worst year in a generation.
Bloomberg Commodity Index Trends Downward to Start the Year
The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.
Federal Reserve Continues Quest to Slow U.S. Economy
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
Europe’s Coming Bond Avalanche Will Test the ECB
European governments are set to unleash a deluge of bonds into markets this year. Investors will demand either a further shift higher in yields or a substantial improvement in the region’s inflation outlook to digest the coming wave of supply...
JPMorgan’s Smash-Hit ‘Income’ ETF Seen Battling Off Bond Market
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Municipal Outlook: Fresh Opportunities After the Pressures of 2022
Municipal Bond Strategist Jim Grabovac shares his views on outflows, trends and opportunities in the municipal sector.
Markets Look to Rebound From a Volatile 2022
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.