Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
We often write about the opportunity for fixed income investors to lock in relatively attractive long-term rates. And we would argue that investment consultants and financial advisors have no more important charge than to convince their clients to take advantage of this while they still can.
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
This week I had the chance to run a half-day workshop helping seasoned, successful advisors learn techniques for emerging as strong leaders, so I’ll share some of the information here in this column.
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
The forthcoming presidential election is certainly adding a healthy dose of intrigue into the municipal bond space.
The US economic data released in early August not only triggered a brief, but dramatic episode of financial-market volatility. It also fueled an abnormal degree of instability in forecasts by leading Wall Street economists, suggesting that they, like the Federal Reserve, may have lost their strategic bearings.
As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
Forecasting anything, let alone something as complicated as the economy, is fraught. Stretches of decent growth and low inflation that look, in retrospect, like happy days, can be upended by unforeseen events. Covid, the descent into recession and the sharp rebound are just a few examples. Errors, unfortunately, are an unavoidable part of trying to map the future.
If your home and/or its contents are destroyed or damaged by a disaster such as a fire or flood, the insurance company will need a complete list of what was lost. Do you have such a list?
My colleague Will Keenan recommended an outstanding book, The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King, by Michael Craig. The book is a short and entertaining read of how Andy Beal played the best poker players in the world heads-up. He not only gambled toe-to-toe, but he also reminded them that they were doing what everyone should think poker is: gambling.
Improve your income potential with a tactical, unconstrained strategy that sources opportunities across geographies and asset classes. BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Fund takes a risk-first approach while seeking to deliver a consistently attractive yield.
“What happened in 1971?” It is one of the most important and debated questions in US economic history, and new research suggests that the answer may be lurking a few decades earlier — in 1948, to be precise.
One of the last remaining bright spots for Chinese consumption is rapidly fading, as the nation’s economic malaise takes a toll on demand for even the most accessible of goods.
When you master the art of trust-based selling, you’ll be able to create trust in a split-second and never feel afraid about losing a client again.
Happy National Cheap Flight Day! Yes, you heard that right—there is a national celebration day to mark the start of a lull in travel demand. Who knew this would be a day to celebrate? Regardless, it’s good news for consumers as airfares should continue their recent downward trend!
Artificial intelligence has the potential to reshape our economies, labor markets, societies, and politics. But despite the rosy forecasts of an AI-driven boom, history shows that technological advances rarely lead to immediate improvements in living standards and often lead to profound disruption.
That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.
Mark Zuckerberg may have a history of copying of others’ ideas, but when it comes to navigating the generative AI hype cycle, he’s the one forging a smarter path.
For years, a Chinese company has dominated one of the most lucrative corners of the cryptocurrency universe. Rising political tensions, and the prospect of Donald Trump retaking the White House, pose an unprecedented threat to that reign.
There’s no shortage of market-moving events on the docket to keep Wall Street busy right now.
An Oaktree Capital Management LP venture plans to seek an equity partner to help develop a Dublin project that’s expected to be valued at billions of euro when it’s completed, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.
Treasuries rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole cemented expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates next month.
As recently as the beginning of this year the market pundits were predicting up to six Federal Reserve rate cuts to the short-term Federal Funds Rate. Shockingly, the pundits’ expectations have not come to fruition. Predictions based on the sentiment of the day fill the twenty-four-hour news cycle on multiple outlets.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Capital Group Municipal Income ETF (CGMU) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.
Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.
Bond prices whipsawed over the past month as volatility spiked across markets. What's next for fixed income markets?
Having been warned about the risk, investors now ask if the yen carry trade unwind is complete. Here's how far it might still go.
Actively managed ETFs continued to gain traction in July with $24 billion of net inflows. This represented 19% of the industry’s net inflows.
Municipal bonds maintained their summer strength and posted a second-consecutive month of positive performance in July.
Hastily, investors have turned their worry about inflation into worry about a recession. The catalyst was Friday’s unexpectedly disappointing unemployment number.
The softening trends in both inflation and labor data are sending a message that monetary policy is too restrictive.
Municipal bonds extended their rally on Friday after a lackluster jobs number cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by the end of its next meeting in September.
We are approaching a turning point in policy decisions as the FOMC attempts to walk the fine line of hitting their inflation targets while maintaining a healthy labor market.
Potential for another trade war fueled by a rise in global protectionist policies has investors revisiting the potential impact on stocks, inflation, and economic growth.
With growth moderating and inflation cooling, the US seems on track for a soft landing—as markets digest a stream of incoming information. Equity performance may be on the verge of broadening beyond a handful of stocks, and still-sizable bond yields bolster return potential.
In June, Capital Group added seven new actively managed products. Its executives were in New York last week to ring the NYSE closing bell.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is launching four new municipal-bond exchange-traded funds, adding to the $129 billion corner of the state and local government debt market.
While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.
There are many advantages and risks associated with any investment. Whether you are buying a stock, a house, a business, or a bond, each investment has unique characteristics that allow an investor to gain from particular investment features with varying risks.
Discover what surprised markets in the second quarter of 2024 and understand the potential drivers of volatility for the third quarter.
The dilemma that all Fed committees and chairpersons face when the economic cycle nears a turn but then repeats itself can be summed up with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s recent references: “Easing too soon, too much could harm inflation progress.” “Easing too little, too late could unduly weaken the economy.”
It's important to understand the true meaning behind the names of investment funds, especially when it comes to those labeled "tax-managed"
Elections have been anything but easy for investors. What has been easy is financial conditions in the US relative to the level of policy rates, fostering the debate over the degree of policy restrictiveness as global monetary easing begins.
Broad measures of investment-grade municipal bonds didn’t do much of anything in the first half of 2024, but some believe it could be poised for some upside.
Softening inflation supports the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in coming months, but there are complexities below the surface.
No matter who wins November’s US presidential election, there’s a growing risk that Americans will be paying higher taxes next year, according to MacKay Shields LLC. That makes muni bonds an attractive shield.
Although the market is off to a rough start to the year, we think it should recover.
With high yields and compelling opportunities, we think the muni market looks exceptionally attractive today.
The boom in portfolio trading is starting to creep into the market for state and local government debt.
Municipal bonds posted their strongest June performance since 2019. The asset class outperformed amid improving seasonal supply-and-demand dynamics. Looking ahead, July has historically been the strongest performing month of the year.
The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.
We’re borrowing from the upcoming Paris Summer Olympics for our quarterly theme – with a twist. Instead of using the most popular events (like gymnastics, swimming, and track & field) to express our views, we’ll go beyond the spotlight.
The mid- to long-term costs of missed opportunities by staying in cash mean investors should consider moving off the cash sidelines.
Owning only the U.S. stock market likely means being overweight Tech. But Tech stocks don't always outperform. Investors may want to look outside the U.S. to be diversified.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
U.S. Treasury auctions are of interest lately due to growing U.S. debt and high interest rates. What are Treasury auctions, how do they work, and what should investors know?
Although bonds may not always be able to significantly contribute to growing an investor’s wealth, their lower risk profile can bring comfort in positioning an investor to maintain that wealth.
This year's tale of two markets has underscored resilience at the index level but considerable weakness at the individual member level, leading to massive performance divergences.
Financial markets have posed a number of vexing questions to investors over the past two years, not the least of which included the height to which interest rates could rise without negatively impacting US economic activity.
Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 have shifted dramatically, from six cuts expected at the start of the year, to barely one or two at this writing. Here’s why we think the US economy’s resilience and the year-to-date increase in yields may prolong an attractive opportunity in fixed income.
A rising number of U.S. taxpayers are subject to an investment income surtax, introduced a decade ago in federal legislation. Here are some strategies that may help mitigate the impact of the tax.
A top risk for investors, elections may see a shift from centrist to more populist policy that could slow exports, raise inflation, and increase volatility in the global markets.
In the second half of the year, investors will likely be navigating a potential divergence in monetary policy among the major economy central banks, a more normalized U.S. interest rate regime, and an equity market that may favor quality.
Municipal bonds deviated from U.S. fixed income assets and posted negative performance in May.
Certain segments of the economy and stock market have experienced much stronger recoveries this year, underscoring a severe bifurcation between the "haves" and "have nots."
Looking into the second half of the year, we are optimistic that returns will be stronger, but also expect volatility to remain elevated.
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) measures the price paid for goods and services by consumers. It reflects changes in consumer behavior and captures inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses. Prices for both goods and services are measured.
Defending my love of dividends consumes a lot of my time. Sometimes I’ll pull out my track record. Other times I explain how owning boring and stable dividend stocks means I spend less time watching and worrying about them.
Of course, perfect or even near-perfect market forecasting is folly. But even if we can find a successful forecaster, odds are that they won’t add any value after taxes.
Higher coupons and interest payments can make premium municipal bonds worth the extra upfront cost.
Why is there so much angst among investors? The mixed economic signals may have a lot to do with it.
As the global economy builds on its recovery this year, markets may see increased volatility due to divergent central bank policies, geopolitics and election outcomes.
Discounted municipal bonds could expose you to unexpected taxes. Here's what to know before you buy.
Market factors are constantly changing and require monitoring, analysis, and flexibility by the investors when it comes to choosing appropriate investments.
Rather than dive into a vast pool individual bond options, these three ETFs can provide a low-cost and convenient option.
The two largest emerging markets have taken very different paths, echoing the divergence in the economic and demographic landscape for these two countries.
Recent challenges from higher rates and banking turmoil are well known to investors in preferred securities, but the performance of this asset class relative to other alternatives in fixed income may not be. Here’s why we think preferreds continue to offer attractive total return potential and a tax-advantaged income stream.
An elevated or rising rate environment creates pockets of opportunity within asset classes such as closed-end funds.
Bank lending standards are still restrictive, underscoring the Fed's view that financial conditions remain tight and any resulting economic weakness could keep rate cuts in play.
We think the intersection of hope and fear offers opportunity across asset classes and market segments. Tapping into it, however, requires in-depth research and a discerning eye. Waiting for a clarion bell to ring before deploying capital might leave investors a step behind.
Bonds investors now balance the potential risks and rewards of taking on longer duration exposures in the current environment.
One of the main advantages of constructing a portfolio of individual bonds is that it can be customized to meet the precise needs, wants, and objectives of the investor
While high-yield implies higher risk when it comes to bonds, HYD, which turned 15 years old in February, isn’t excessively risky.
Municipal Bonds
The 2024 US Election and Municipal Bonds: What to Know
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
Two in the Bush: Still Time to Lock in Long-Term Rates
We often write about the opportunity for fixed income investors to lock in relatively attractive long-term rates. And we would argue that investment consultants and financial advisors have no more important charge than to convince their clients to take advantage of this while they still can.
It's Time … For a Fed Pivot
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
A Slow Moving Economic Cycle
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
What Every Leader Should Understand
This week I had the chance to run a half-day workshop helping seasoned, successful advisors learn techniques for emerging as strong leaders, so I’ll share some of the information here in this column.
August Sees Markets Close Strong After Tough Start
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
Apple Rally Fueled by AI Promises Approaches a Crucial Test
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
Overbought Conditions Set Up Short-Term Correction
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
Election Year Adds Intrigue to Municipal Bonds
The forthcoming presidential election is certainly adding a healthy dose of intrigue into the municipal bond space.
Analytical Volatility Is Worse than Market Whiplash
The US economic data released in early August not only triggered a brief, but dramatic episode of financial-market volatility. It also fueled an abnormal degree of instability in forecasts by leading Wall Street economists, suggesting that they, like the Federal Reserve, may have lost their strategic bearings.
The Tax Implications of Your Short-Term Investments
As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.
China's Growth Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for the Global Economy
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
What Jack Nicholson Knew About Forecasting Errors
Forecasting anything, let alone something as complicated as the economy, is fraught. Stretches of decent growth and low inflation that look, in retrospect, like happy days, can be upended by unforeseen events. Covid, the descent into recession and the sharp rebound are just a few examples. Errors, unfortunately, are an unavoidable part of trying to map the future.
How to Get Full Protection From Your Homeowners Insurance
If your home and/or its contents are destroyed or damaged by a disaster such as a fire or flood, the insurance company will need a complete list of what was lost. Do you have such a list?
Markets Adapt to Your Style
My colleague Will Keenan recommended an outstanding book, The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King, by Michael Craig. The book is a short and entertaining read of how Andy Beal played the best poker players in the world heads-up. He not only gambled toe-to-toe, but he also reminded them that they were doing what everyone should think poker is: gambling.
Multi-Asset Income
Improve your income potential with a tactical, unconstrained strategy that sources opportunities across geographies and asset classes. BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Fund takes a risk-first approach while seeking to deliver a consistently attractive yield.
When Did the Great Stagnation Actually Begin?
“What happened in 1971?” It is one of the most important and debated questions in US economic history, and new research suggests that the answer may be lurking a few decades earlier — in 1948, to be precise.
PDD’s $55 Billion Stock Crash Sends Warning on China Economy
One of the last remaining bright spots for Chinese consumption is rapidly fading, as the nation’s economic malaise takes a toll on demand for even the most accessible of goods.
The Fear of Losing Clients – Your Value Being Questioned
When you master the art of trust-based selling, you’ll be able to create trust in a split-second and never feel afraid about losing a client again.
Five Lessons Learned as Summer Comes to an End
Happy National Cheap Flight Day! Yes, you heard that right—there is a national celebration day to mark the start of a lull in travel demand. Who knew this would be a day to celebrate? Regardless, it’s good news for consumers as airfares should continue their recent downward trend!
Will the AI Revolution Lead to Greater Prosperity?
Artificial intelligence has the potential to reshape our economies, labor markets, societies, and politics. But despite the rosy forecasts of an AI-driven boom, history shows that technological advances rarely lead to immediate improvements in living standards and often lead to profound disruption.
Getting to the Bottom of “Greedflation”
That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.
AI Giants Can Learn a Thing or Two From Mark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg may have a history of copying of others’ ideas, but when it comes to navigating the generative AI hype cycle, he’s the one forging a smarter path.
Trump’s ‘Made in USA’ Bitcoin Threatens China Juggernaut Bitmain’s Reign
For years, a Chinese company has dominated one of the most lucrative corners of the cryptocurrency universe. Rising political tensions, and the prospect of Donald Trump retaking the White House, pose an unprecedented threat to that reign.
‘It’s Just Atrocious’: Jobs Snafu Stokes Fury on Wall Street
There’s no shortage of market-moving events on the docket to keep Wall Street busy right now.
Oaktree Plans to Seek Partner for 3,800 Home Project in Dublin
An Oaktree Capital Management LP venture plans to seek an equity partner to help develop a Dublin project that’s expected to be valued at billions of euro when it’s completed, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Five Reasons Munis May Offer Shelter in Recession
Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.
Treasuries Rally as Powell Locks in Bets on a September Rate Cut
Treasuries rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole cemented expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates next month.
The Long Term Approach vs. Short Term Noise
As recently as the beginning of this year the market pundits were predicting up to six Federal Reserve rate cuts to the short-term Federal Funds Rate. Shockingly, the pundits’ expectations have not come to fruition. Predictions based on the sentiment of the day fill the twenty-four-hour news cycle on multiple outlets.
Capital Group Municipal Income ETF (CGMU)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Capital Group Municipal Income ETF (CGMU) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Schwab Market Perspective: Spinning
Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.
Charts for the Beach 2024
Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.
Bond Market: Shaken, Not Stirred
Bond prices whipsawed over the past month as volatility spiked across markets. What's next for fixed income markets?
Carry Trade Unwind: Is It Really Over?
Having been warned about the risk, investors now ask if the yen carry trade unwind is complete. Here's how far it might still go.
Growing Supply of Active Municipal Bond ETFs
Actively managed ETFs continued to gain traction in July with $24 billion of net inflows. This represented 19% of the industry’s net inflows.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Municipal bonds maintained their summer strength and posted a second-consecutive month of positive performance in July.
Heightened Volatility
Hastily, investors have turned their worry about inflation into worry about a recession. The catalyst was Friday’s unexpectedly disappointing unemployment number.
The Next Episode for Jobs, Inflation, and the Fed
The softening trends in both inflation and labor data are sending a message that monetary policy is too restrictive.
Munis Extend Rally as Jobs Miss Cements Path to Fed Rate Cut
Municipal bonds extended their rally on Friday after a lackluster jobs number cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by the end of its next meeting in September.
Fed Week – Is a Rate Cut on Deck?
We are approaching a turning point in policy decisions as the FOMC attempts to walk the fine line of hitting their inflation targets while maintaining a healthy labor market.
Trade War 2.0: Should Investors Prepare?
Potential for another trade war fueled by a rise in global protectionist policies has investors revisiting the potential impact on stocks, inflation, and economic growth.
Capital Markets Outlook 3Q 2024: Distinguishing Signal from Noise
With growth moderating and inflation cooling, the US seems on track for a soft landing—as markets digest a stream of incoming information. Equity performance may be on the verge of broadening beyond a handful of stocks, and still-sizable bond yields bolster return potential.
Newer Active ETFs From Capital Group Offer More Conservative Approach
In June, Capital Group added seven new actively managed products. Its executives were in New York last week to ring the NYSE closing bell.
Goldman Sachs Makes Bigger Bet on $129 Billion Muni ETF Market
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is launching four new municipal-bond exchange-traded funds, adding to the $129 billion corner of the state and local government debt market.
Brea(d)th of Life: Market Leadership Shifts
While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.
Reinvestment Risk
There are many advantages and risks associated with any investment. Whether you are buying a stock, a house, a business, or a bond, each investment has unique characteristics that allow an investor to gain from particular investment features with varying risks.
Q2 Surprises and What Could Surprise in Q3
Discover what surprised markets in the second quarter of 2024 and understand the potential drivers of volatility for the third quarter.
Walking the Tightrope
The dilemma that all Fed committees and chairpersons face when the economic cycle nears a turn but then repeats itself can be summed up with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s recent references: “Easing too soon, too much could harm inflation progress.” “Easing too little, too late could unduly weaken the economy.”
What’s in a Name? Understanding Tax-Managed Funds and Strategies
It's important to understand the true meaning behind the names of investment funds, especially when it comes to those labeled "tax-managed"
Easing Into Elections
Elections have been anything but easy for investors. What has been easy is financial conditions in the US relative to the level of policy rates, fostering the debate over the degree of policy restrictiveness as global monetary easing begins.
Municipal Bonds May Be Ready to Rebound
Broad measures of investment-grade municipal bonds didn’t do much of anything in the first half of 2024, but some believe it could be poised for some upside.
Schwab Market Perspective: Connecting the Pieces
Softening inflation supports the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in coming months, but there are complexities below the surface.
Tax Hikes Seen No Matter Who’s President, Making Muni Bonds Attractive
No matter who wins November’s US presidential election, there’s a growing risk that Americans will be paying higher taxes next year, according to MacKay Shields LLC. That makes muni bonds an attractive shield.
2024 Mid-Year Outlook: Municipal Bonds
Although the market is off to a rough start to the year, we think it should recover.
Municipal Mid-Year Outlook: End the Waiting Game
With high yields and compelling opportunities, we think the muni market looks exceptionally attractive today.
Wall Street’s Portfolio-Trade Fad Hooks Slow-Moving Muni Market
The boom in portfolio trading is starting to creep into the market for state and local government debt.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Municipal bonds posted their strongest June performance since 2019. The asset class outperformed amid improving seasonal supply-and-demand dynamics. Looking ahead, July has historically been the strongest performing month of the year.
Just a Job to Do: Assessing the Labor Market
The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.
City of Lights, Market of Opportunities
We’re borrowing from the upcoming Paris Summer Olympics for our quarterly theme – with a twist. Instead of using the most popular events (like gymnastics, swimming, and track & field) to express our views, we’ll go beyond the spotlight.
An Advisor’s Guidebook for Moving Off the Cash Sidelines
The mid- to long-term costs of missed opportunities by staying in cash mean investors should consider moving off the cash sidelines.
How Much "Tech" Do You Own?
Owning only the U.S. stock market likely means being overweight Tech. But Tech stocks don't always outperform. Investors may want to look outside the U.S. to be diversified.
Mid-Year Report
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
How Do Treasury Auctions Work?
U.S. Treasury auctions are of interest lately due to growing U.S. debt and high interest rates. What are Treasury auctions, how do they work, and what should investors know?
Individual Bonds - Providing a Dual Benefit
Although bonds may not always be able to significantly contribute to growing an investor’s wealth, their lower risk profile can bring comfort in positioning an investor to maintain that wealth.
Hard to Concentrate: Top-Heavy Market
This year's tale of two markets has underscored resilience at the index level but considerable weakness at the individual member level, leading to massive performance divergences.
CIM Market Commentary: Cue the Great Moderation
Financial markets have posed a number of vexing questions to investors over the past two years, not the least of which included the height to which interest rates could rise without negatively impacting US economic activity.
Midyear Fixed Income Outlook: Solid but Slowing, a Favorable Environment for Fixed Income
Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 have shifted dramatically, from six cuts expected at the start of the year, to barely one or two at this writing. Here’s why we think the US economy’s resilience and the year-to-date increase in yields may prolong an attractive opportunity in fixed income.
Planning Moves to Lessen the Sting of the 3.8% Surtax
A rising number of U.S. taxpayers are subject to an investment income surtax, introduced a decade ago in federal legislation. Here are some strategies that may help mitigate the impact of the tax.
Election Risk Returns
A top risk for investors, elections may see a shift from centrist to more populist policy that could slow exports, raise inflation, and increase volatility in the global markets.
Midyear Outlook 2024
In the second half of the year, investors will likely be navigating a potential divergence in monetary policy among the major economy central banks, a more normalized U.S. interest rate regime, and an equity market that may favor quality.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Municipal bonds deviated from U.S. fixed income assets and posted negative performance in May.
Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
Certain segments of the economy and stock market have experienced much stronger recoveries this year, underscoring a severe bifurcation between the "haves" and "have nots."
Mid-Year Outlook: Fixed Income
Looking into the second half of the year, we are optimistic that returns will be stronger, but also expect volatility to remain elevated.
Personal Consumption Expenditure – An Inflation Measure
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) measures the price paid for goods and services by consumers. It reflects changes in consumer behavior and captures inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses. Prices for both goods and services are measured.
Big News that Affects All Your Dividend Stocks
Defending my love of dividends consumes a lot of my time. Sometimes I’ll pull out my track record. Other times I explain how owning boring and stable dividend stocks means I spend less time watching and worrying about them.
Forecasting is Hard…and a Fool’s Errand After Taxes
Of course, perfect or even near-perfect market forecasting is folly. But even if we can find a successful forecaster, odds are that they won’t add any value after taxes.
Premium Municipal Bonds: Myth vs. Fact
Higher coupons and interest payments can make premium municipal bonds worth the extra upfront cost.
The Markets' Mixed Signals
Why is there so much angst among investors? The mixed economic signals may have a lot to do with it.
2024 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
As the global economy builds on its recovery this year, markets may see increased volatility due to divergent central bank policies, geopolitics and election outcomes.
Buying a Muni Below Par? Reasons to Think Twice
Discounted municipal bonds could expose you to unexpected taxes. Here's what to know before you buy.
Shifting Market Dynamics
Market factors are constantly changing and require monitoring, analysis, and flexibility by the investors when it comes to choosing appropriate investments.
3 ETFs for Low-Cost and Convenient Bond Exposure
Rather than dive into a vast pool individual bond options, these three ETFs can provide a low-cost and convenient option.
Emerging Market Contrasts: China and India
The two largest emerging markets have taken very different paths, echoing the divergence in the economic and demographic landscape for these two countries.
Reiterating the Case for Preferred Securities
Recent challenges from higher rates and banking turmoil are well known to investors in preferred securities, but the performance of this asset class relative to other alternatives in fixed income may not be. Here’s why we think preferreds continue to offer attractive total return potential and a tax-advantaged income stream.
Why Now Is the Time for Closed-End Fund Strategies
An elevated or rising rate environment creates pockets of opportunity within asset classes such as closed-end funds.
Loan Me a Dime
Bank lending standards are still restrictive, underscoring the Fed's view that financial conditions remain tight and any resulting economic weakness could keep rate cuts in play.
Capital Markets Outlook: 2Q 2024
We think the intersection of hope and fear offers opportunity across asset classes and market segments. Tapping into it, however, requires in-depth research and a discerning eye. Waiting for a clarion bell to ring before deploying capital might leave investors a step behind.
Is Now a Good Entry Point for Bonds?
Bonds investors now balance the potential risks and rewards of taking on longer duration exposures in the current environment.
Portfolio Construction
One of the main advantages of constructing a portfolio of individual bonds is that it can be customized to meet the precise needs, wants, and objectives of the investor
High-Yield Munis Could Be Interesting
While high-yield implies higher risk when it comes to bonds, HYD, which turned 15 years old in February, isn’t excessively risky.