Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual paces in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping pave the way for policymakers to further scale back the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
US dollar cycles are long.
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
This morning's release of the December new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 616K, up 2.3% month-over-month from a revised 602K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 617K. The median home price is now at $442K.
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
Word is out among hedge fund managers on how to get tax breaks for giving to charity - without actually handing over their money just yet. They can even keep it in their funds.
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
December's ZHVI came in at $357,319, slightly up from the previous month by 0.01% and up 10.8% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.77% MoM and 3.02% YoY.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.33M was down 1.55% from the November reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.37M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.382M was slightly above the Investing.com forecast of 1.359M and is a 1.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.401M.
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Behind the five-decade low US unemployment rate of 3.5% lies a 2.6 million-person mystery.
Some of the biggest investors in US commercial real estate are looking to cash in before property values slide further.
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 35 is up 4 from last month's 31, ending 12 consecutive monthly declines.
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
We wrote last week about the soft landing that markets now seem to expect.
Last year an infamous cryptocurrency ad featured the slogan “fortune favors the brave.” And while historically fortune does favor the brave, there is a difference between courage and blind faith.
As a financial coach whose mission is to talk fee-only advisors “off the fence” of procrastination, I frequently answer two questions.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the US economy is still facing a recession this year, despite encouraging news in recent weeks.
One of the most lucrative money-making machines in the world of finance is all clogged up, threatening a year of pain for Wall Street banks and private-equity barons as a decade-long deal boom goes bust.
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
A disaster for bulls, the yearlong tumble in American stocks has in some respects been almost as rough for the other side of the trade.
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
Money managers for the ultra-wealthy are eschewing traditional private equity funds and betting directly on upstart companies.
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is making a $1 billion wager that small private equity firms without the heft of the biggest buyout institutions can boost the pension giant’s returns and clout.
Can you believe these grifters hawking indexed universal life (IUL) insurance on TikTok? Here’s the actions I’m taking to put an end to this predatory nonsense.
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
Although inflation appears to have peaked, historical data suggests that prices are unlikely to reverse themselves, which could lead to an extended period of wage inflation.
Gold prices have increased to start 2023 as the dollar index extends last Friday's losses.
The question that obsessed financial markets last year was when and where US inflation would peak. The 2023 version will likely be how far, and how fast, it comes down.
Here are two lessons to double the value of your practice…
One of the most common questions you hear when professional investors are being interviewed is “what do you think is interesting in the current market environment?”
After a respite in 2021 and 2022, US retailers appear headed for a flurry of bankruptcies, with Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. leading the way.
When the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, triggering the largest-ever oil spill in the US, all eyes turned to BP Plc, the British company behind the drilling. But BP wasn’t alone in the project.
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of December 30, 2022, it was at 3.88%.
The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
Alternative Investments
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Bitcoin Barrels Toward Historic January as Crypto Market Jumps by $280 Billion
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Key Inflation Gauge Cools Further, Paving Way for Smaller Fed Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual paces in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping pave the way for policymakers to further scale back the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Stagflation! Is Now the time to buy Precious Metals
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Charitable Giving, Looking Back and Forward
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
Five Things to Watch For in the Debt-Ceiling Talks
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
Big Oil Faces Headwinds After Record $199 Billion Profit Haul
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
New Home Sales Up 2.3% in December
This morning's release of the December new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 616K, up 2.3% month-over-month from a revised 602K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 617K. The median home price is now at $442K.
Municipal Bonds: Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
Crypto Is Worth Fixing. Regulators Should Get Moving
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
The Case for the Federal Reserve to Pause Right Now
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
1099 Season – An Opportunity for Tax-Aware Advisors
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
What Would an Early Biden Departure Mean for Markets?
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The 2 Trillion Reasons Why Fed Tightening Isn't So Scary
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
Citadel's $16 Billion Win Tops Paulson's Greatest Trade Ever
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Ask Brad: Do You Rent or Own Your Advisory Practice?
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
Hedge Fund Managers Score Tax Break While Keeping Investment Control
Word is out among hedge fund managers on how to get tax breaks for giving to charity - without actually handing over their money just yet. They can even keep it in their funds.
Nvidia to Win Big From ChatGPT Hype, Wall Street Predicts
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
The Crypto Crackdown Is Just Getting Started
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Margin Debt Down 5.8% in December
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.
A Powerful New Tool Transforms How Billionaires Give Fortunes Away
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Existing-Home Sales: Retreat for 11th Consecutive Month
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Quarterly Letter – January 2023
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
Zillow Home Value Index: December Update
December's ZHVI came in at $357,319, slightly up from the previous month by 0.01% and up 10.8% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.77% MoM and 3.02% YoY.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 1.55% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.33M was down 1.55% from the November reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.37M.
New Residential Housing Starts Down 1.4% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.382M was slightly above the Investing.com forecast of 1.359M and is a 1.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.401M.
Strategic Income Outlook: Was This a Crazy Year or What?
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
Global Bond Sales Off to Record Start of Nearly $600 Billion
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion dollars.
Macro Hedge Funds Had a Banner Year. Can They Stage an Encore?
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
EM Debt Outlook: China Takes Center Stage
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
Investors Risk Making a Classic Portfolio Mistake
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Job Market's 2.6 Million Missing People Unnerves Star Harvard Economist
Behind the five-decade low US unemployment rate of 3.5% lies a 2.6 million-person mystery.
Investors Seek to Pull $20 Billion From Core Real Estate Funds
Some of the biggest investors in US commercial real estate are looking to cash in before property values slide further.
Asia: The Early Innings of Innovation?
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
NAHB Housing Market Index: "Builder Confidence Uptick Signals Turning Point for Housing Lies Ahead"
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 35 is up 4 from last month's 31, ending 12 consecutive monthly declines.
Time to Buy the Dip In Energy?
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
Soft Landing?
We wrote last week about the soft landing that markets now seem to expect.
Beware of the “Obvious” Trade
Last year an infamous cryptocurrency ad featured the slogan “fortune favors the brave.” And while historically fortune does favor the brave, there is a difference between courage and blind faith.
The Two Client Questions Advisors Must Be Able to Answer
As a financial coach whose mission is to talk fee-only advisors “off the fence” of procrastination, I frequently answer two questions.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Punchbowl Is Gone
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Unfazed by Airline Grounding, Investors Look Ahead to Earnings
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
Summers Says Recession Still Looms, Fed Getting Closer to Done
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the US economy is still facing a recession this year, despite encouraging news in recent weeks.
Wall Street's Lucrative Leveraged-Debt Machine Is Breaking Down
One of the most lucrative money-making machines in the world of finance is all clogged up, threatening a year of pain for Wall Street banks and private-equity barons as a decade-long deal boom goes bust.
Equity Outlook: The Times They Are A-Changin’
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
Stocks Falling in Wake of Mixed Banking Results
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
Stocks Grappling With December Inflation Report
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
The Year in Review: Wealthspire Advisors 2022 Q4 Review
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
The Fed Wants Lower Stock Prices
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
Equities Are Searching for Clarity
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
Biggest Ever Bear-Market Bounces Create Unending Pain for Shorts
A disaster for bulls, the yearlong tumble in American stocks has in some respects been almost as rough for the other side of the trade.
3 Investment Themes for 2023
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
Banks' Revenue Bonanza Seen Under Threat From Looming US Recession
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
Family Offices Bypass Private Equity Funds to Make Bets Directly
Money managers for the ultra-wealthy are eschewing traditional private equity funds and betting directly on upstart companies.
Calpers Makes $1 Billion Bet on Small Funds as New CIO Reshapes Pension
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is making a $1 billion wager that small private equity firms without the heft of the biggest buyout institutions can boost the pension giant’s returns and clout.
Gimme a Break, Bro – Stop the TikTok Grifters
Can you believe these grifters hawking indexed universal life (IUL) insurance on TikTok? Here’s the actions I’m taking to put an end to this predatory nonsense.
Gundlach: Bonds are Much Cheaper than Stocks
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
Things Are Getting Sticky. Prices Always Have Been.
Although inflation appears to have peaked, historical data suggests that prices are unlikely to reverse themselves, which could lead to an extended period of wage inflation.
Gold Rallies on a Weaker Dollar
Gold prices have increased to start 2023 as the dollar index extends last Friday's losses.
Inflation's Path From Peak Is Next Big Question for US Economy
The question that obsessed financial markets last year was when and where US inflation would peak. The 2023 version will likely be how far, and how fast, it comes down.
Ask Brad: How to Double the Value of Your Practice
Here are two lessons to double the value of your practice…
Don’t Take Our Word for It
One of the most common questions you hear when professional investors are being interviewed is “what do you think is interesting in the current market environment?”
The Pandemic Was Good for Retailers. What Happens Next?
After a respite in 2021 and 2022, US retailers appear headed for a flurry of bankruptcies, with Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. leading the way.
The Warren Buffett Way to Profit From the Energy Crisis
When the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, triggering the largest-ever oil spill in the US, all eyes turned to BP Plc, the British company behind the drilling. But BP wasn’t alone in the project.
A Primer for Clients to Invest in Commodities
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
Year of the Pause
Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.
Is It Time To Rethink The 60/40 Portfolio?
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
December 2022: Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of December 30, 2022, it was at 3.88%.
Bloomberg Commodity Index Trends Downward to Start the Year
The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.
Federal Reserve Continues Quest to Slow U.S. Economy
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.