BNY Mellon Wealth Management released its inaugural Charitable Giving Study a couple of weeks ago. It was a survey of 200 people with at least $5 million in AUM. It painted a vivid picture of high-net-worth investors’ behaviors, attitudes and experiences towards charitable giving. Some of the key findings included that only 56% had a charitable giving strategy, and that the top motivators for giving were personal satisfaction and connections. Here to discuss the findings of that study in Crystal Thompkins.
Tax Planning
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Wall Street South Gets Biggest Win in Griffin’s Grand Miami Plan
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
What Biden Should (and Shouldn’t) Do About Inflation
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Cracking and Pivoting
The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country.
Why I Consulted with an Active Fund Manager
Why would I work to increase the profile of an active fund manager? My reasons reflect the increasing pressure on advisors to differentiate themselves and demonstrate value.
Inflation Ate Your Free Lunch, But You’re Still Better Off
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Big, Boxy Apartment Buildings Are Multiplying Faster Than Ever
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
The Fixed Income Water is Getting Warmer
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
Governance For Global Trade
The world needs a stronger World Trade Organization.
The Fed Capitulates
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
Why ESG Funds Have Outperformed
The rising popularity of ESG investing has driven asset flows to green stocks. But new research confirms that the resulting higher valuations forebode lower returns for climate-conscious investors.
How Venture Capital Thrives by Betting on Weirdness
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
What Would You Pay for Lunch With Warren Buffett? Bidding Stands at Record $12 Million
The final day of bidding for Warren Buffett’s last charity lunch just got interesting.
Inflation Turns EVs Into Luxury Items, Threatening Broader Electric Shift
Electric-vehicle prices are going up at a dizzying pace these days.
An Active Week For Central Banks
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Fed Goes Bigger
The Federal Reserve raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) today, the most at any meeting since 1994 and exactly the move Chairman Jerome Powell was dismissive about in early May after the last meeting.
The Future of Food is Technology
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Americans Are Building Vacation-Home Empires With Easy-Money Loans
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Opportunities in Tax Efficiency
I have identified a few opportunities within my portfolio and wealth management practice that prompt consideration for your own strategies as you plan for large estates.
Five Signs You Have a Lousy Succession Plan
Mistakes are easy to make but are easier to avoid if you know what a “bad” succession plan looks like.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Mostly Unchanged in May, Inventory, Inflation, Problematic
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
Social Security: Whistling Past The $96 Trillion Graveyard
Social Security has a problem.
Sobering News for ESG Investors
New research shows that positive returns to ESG portfolios from 2018-2020 were attributed to increased demand for “green“ stocks, raising the question of whether that outperformance will be sustained.
FOMC Preview
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
Trends in Charitable Giving Among Wealthy Families
BNY Mellon Wealth Management released its inaugural Charitable Giving Study a couple of weeks ago. It was a survey of 200 people with at least $5 million in AUM. It painted a vivid picture of high-net-worth investors’ behaviors, attitudes and experiences towards charitable giving. Some of the key findings included that only 56% had a charitable giving strategy, and that the top motivators for giving were personal satisfaction and connections. Here to discuss the findings of that study in Crystal Thompkins.
Are We Headed for Recession? Gold and Bitcoin Could Offer Some Cover
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
Saving For College: Start Small, But Start Now
With National 529 Day last month and graduation season underway, the cost of education is at the top of many people’s minds.
The Current and Future State of Model Portfolios
This article is relevant to financial professionals who are considering offering model portfolios to their clients.
Parents Are Buying Homes for Kids Priced Out of the Housing Market
Even as the US real estate market shows signs of cooling, inflation and higher interest rates are making it difficult for young house hunters to buy properties — at least on their own.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying, and Love the (Interest Rate) Bomb
The year 2022 sure has felt like a pretty bad one so far: interest rates and consumer prices have spiked up, and stock prices are sharply down. But, in terms of what really matters, many investors are better off than they were at the end of 2021–almost 5% better off for an investor in a diversified balanced portfolio.
Are We Too Focused on Making Money?
My staff told me that we have “become totally focused on AUM and fees. It isn’t a nice place to work anymore.”
How to Smash the Competition Using Advice-Only Planning
The advisors who figure out how to work with Generation Z will take your wealthy Baby Boomer clients away. Stop rolling your eyes and listen to why.
Japan Finally Gets Some Inflation
Japan zero-inflation mindset is no match for today's price pressures.
Bank Of Canada Lifts Rates By 50 Basis Points Again. Is an Even Steeper Increase in the Cards?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
Housing Is Correcting, Not Crashing
A cooler housing market isn't a bad outcome.
A Framework for Working with Foreign-Born Families in the U.S.
Using this five-question framework will go a long way to help you be effective as you work with foreign-born families in the U.S.
Advisor Tax Mistake #1 – Getting Bad Tax Advice
Countless examples of incorrect tax information, ranging from capital gains rates to Medicare premiums to gifting limits and especially the math on Roth conversions can be found prominently displayed across the internet, including on some of the most reputable websites.
Quick Thoughts: Navigating Uncertainty In A Rapidly Changing World
Thoughts on recent market volatility and implications for investors from Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover.
No Hurricane, Yet
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon caused a stir lately when he talked about a "hurricane" hitting the US economy.
Recession Talk Is Exaggerated
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
The Problems with Market-Cap Weighted Index Funds
New research quantifies the implicit cost that investors incur when index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500, are rebalanced. Those costs may be avoidable by adopting trading strategies that introduce the possibility of tracking error.
Your Mortgage is Not a Hedge Against Inflation
Homeowners should take a total-balance-sheet view when evaluating options for their mortgage.
No Soft Landings
The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.
Making The Case for Municipal Bonds Despite Recent Volatility
The first half of the year has so far been challenging for investors in municipal bonds.
These Are the Batteries We Need to Ease the Power Crunch
The world is struggling with simultaneous energy and climate crises. To solve the first could require undoing all the progress made toward greener power and cleaner air. But it doesn’t have to be that way.
Think Twice Before Buying a Muni Below Par
Municipal bonds acquired at too deep a discount could be subject to an additional tax, known as the de minimis tax, which would take a bite out of the after-tax return.
When Continuous Care Becomes Continuous Grief
While some continuous-care retirement communities (CCRCs) deliver on their promises, others don’t.
The Death of Active Management Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
For the year ending December 31, 2021, passive mutual funds and ETFs reported estimated net inflows totaling $958.43 billion, compared to estimated net inflows totaling $249.91 billion for actively managed funds.
The Outlook for November
We are now about five months away from the mid-term elections that will decide who controls the Senate and House of Representatives for the next two years.
Moving Averages: S&P Inched Up in May
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.01% after a loss of 8.8% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Crushed by Crypto Losses? Here Are Some Tax Tips.
Investors in Bitcoin and other digital assets have been pummeled recently by the longest losing streak since 2011.
The Virtue Bubble Is About to Burst. Good Riddance.
There are costs to living a virtuous life; It requires going without.
It’s the End of the World As We Know It…
Has the global investment environment which we have grown accustomed to over the past few decades fundamentally changed?
Today’s Pensions Just Don’t Favor Millennials and Gen Z
Even in 2022, pensions still command an aura of reverence. A benefit where you work for one company for 30 years and then retire with a livable wage? And you don’t have to fret about picking investments? What’s not to like?
Consumer Confidence Down in May
The headline number of 106.4 was a decrease of 2.2 from the final reading of 108.6 for April.
The Danger Posed by Cryptocurrency Regulation
The executive order signed by President Biden in March is clearly the first of several steps that will bring the IRS and regulators closer to your crypto wallet.
Advisor Tax Mistake #2 – Not Getting Referrals from COIs
As an advocate of advisors working closely with tax preparers, and as a tax preparer myself, I hear the complaint of unreciprocated referrals all the time from financial advisors. Typically, I respond with questions such as…
Getting Hitched Is Getting More Expensive
Wedding costs reflect the myriad forces that have driven inflation upward.
The Mother Of All Bear Markets
The bear has ended a long hibernation.
The Growing Threat Posed by the Federal Deficit
Our fiscal deficit, as measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio, has grown to levels that could impede growth, as predicted by financial theory and confirmed by empirical evidence. Moreover, new research shows that our burgeoning deficit could increase risk premiums for both stocks and bonds.
How to Handle the DOL’s New IRA Rollover Rule
How are advisors coping with the new Department of Labor (DOL) rollover rules? Here are a dozen observations.
3 Airline Stocks to Consider as We Head into the Busy Summer Travel Season
Summer is right around the corner, and traditionally that’s when families pack their bags and get away for a well-deserved vacation. Since this is the first summer travel season in three years that feels like the before times, airlines and airports are bracing for what is expected to be a particularly busy three months.
Texas Is Now Home To More Fortune 500 Companies Than Any Other State, And I’m Not Surprised
Texas now leads the nation in the number of Fortune 500 companies that are headquartered in the state.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in April
With the release of this morning's report on April's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.25% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 0% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.42% nominal and an increase from the -0.48% real change. The year-over-year metrics are -0.54% nominal and -6.41% real.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in April
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in April rose 0.52% and is up 8.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.27%. The real number is up 2.0% year-over-year. October through March revisions were made.
Quick Thoughts: Global Investor Forum 2022
The Franklin Templeton Institute hosted the Global Investor Forum last week in New York featuring internal and external speakers with expertise across economics, history, foreign policy, sustainability and investment management.
Crypto in Retirement Accounts? Are You Kidding?
Cryptocurrencies are the exact opposite of a prudent investment: They’re volatile, have little practical use beyond speculation and crime, often get lost or stolen, and lack the real-world cash flows that underpin the values of stocks and bonds.
On My Mind: Overdue Reality Check for Fed and Markets Has Barely Begun
Investors’ expectations that interest rates will not rise much may be very misguided.
Despite the Gray Mood, Skies Are Only Partly Cloudy
The outlook for credit amid rising inflation, monetary tightening, and war in Europe.
Inflation Forces Desperate Leaders to Try and Soften the Blow
The price of foods, fuels and other essential items are spiraling ever upward as Russia’s war on Ukraine compounds supply-chain woes stemming from the pandemic. Central banks may be in the driving seat when it comes to tackling inflation, but it’s governments that face the fallout and so are compelled to act.
Advisor Tax Mistake #3 – Skipping the Three Most Important (But Least Sexy) Tax Strategies
I want to draw your focus to the three most important, yet boring, tax strategies that every advisor should be discussing with every client.
Drilling Down: Oil Production Scenarios Across Countries
With economies scrambling for alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers perspective on single-country portfolio exposure to other world oil producers.
The Right Strategy Is Critical When Investing During A Recession!
Investing during a recession can be a very difficult, and often dangerous, prospect.
How Inflation Went From Dormant To Dominant
Policymakers and forecasters were slow to change their mindset about inflation.
The “Buffett Indicator” Predicts Historically Low Long-Term Equity Returns
Shiller’s CAPE ratio is the most-cited predictor of long-term equity returns. But new research shows that the “Buffett” indicator does a good job of forecasting, and both ratios predict subdued, long-term returns for stocks.
Art Is an Investment to Appreciate
Technology stocks have taken a deep dive, blue-chip stocks are ailing, stablecoins aren’t stable, and don’t even ask about traditional crypto. Art markets, however, are alive and well — and it’s worth asking why.
How to Tell if a Fund is All it Claims to Be
There are thousands of mutual funds that offer to select stocks and bonds for your portfolio. But which ones are right for you? Use our Premium membership service to add your logo and a note from you and forward it to your clients.
The Best Gift for College Graduates Is Help With Retirement
New graduates face fierce financial headwinds of soaring rent, ballooning student debt and inflation. The oft-repeated message to the young to “save early and often” may feel near-impossible. Still, it's worth highlighting the benefit of doing so for those who can somehow squirrel some money away.
The US Needs to Get Real About Taxes and Inflation
The Twitter spat about taxes and inflation involving President Joe Biden, Amazon.com Inc. founder Jeff Bezos and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has served mainly to prove that Twitter is a bad place to attempt intelligent debate. Still, the point at issue matters. It deserves a slightly less abbreviated treatment.
Fed Aggressiveness Following Delayed Liftoff Sets Up 2023 Collision
The risks of tightening into a downturn.
Credit: This Time Is Different?
Credit market volatility this year has been extreme.
The One Thing the Market (Almost) Never Does
We put together a histogram of the last 96 years of annual returns, bunching them into percentile ranges. You might expect something that looks like a bell curve, but you would be very wrong! As advisors, we constantly remind clients about the necessity to think long term. The problem is that it’s hard at any age to think in 30-year terms, especially in the middle of a year like 2022.