The US midterm elections have brought about a major political realignment, with the Democratic Party taking decisive control of both the House and the Senate. What are the most likely implications for the economic outlook and financial markets?
We tend to treat values-aligned investing as a knowledge problem. As long as you learn the impact investing strategies, the client conversations will follow. However, after working alongside impact investors, wealth advisors, and the families around them, I’ve come to think there’s been a misdiagnosis.
Rafay Farooqui, CEO and Founder of SUBSCRIBE, joins Tony Davidow to discuss the future of fintech within private markets.
Tuesday’s midterms were one for the history books. Democrats won control of both the House and Senate, and they picked up governorships in Ohio, Texas and Georgia. Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1932. Our home state of Texas did so for the first time in 38 years.
Sometimes, change comes at you so fast that you forget to congratulate yourself on what you’ve achieved.
A client considering a passive ESG fund may associate “passive” with the low-cost, diversified market exposure familiar from broad-market index funds. But understanding how the fund tracks its index is different from understanding the sustainability judgments that index expresses.
The big message from the midterms is that Americans are struggling with the cost of living. In case anyone missed it, they need relief now. This will put even more attention on the Federal Reserve: Will Chair Kevin Warsh do all he can to bring down inflation or placate the White House, which wants lower interest rates?
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Portfolio Manager Denny Fish explains why the market was justified in assigning a higher level of regulatory risk to the AI ecosystem after the midterm elections. But in his view, the secular strength of this theme, along with the massive bottlenecks and geopolitical implications, mean that this historic investment cycle will likely continue.
Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Larry Hatheway opine on the US stock market’s recent volatility in the wake of the US midterm elections and the path forward for investors.
The big story last week? The Federal Reserve paused despite stronger growth and persistent inflation. It was a hawkish pause, with a December hike still the base case, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. Third-quarter gross domestic product showed the US economy's resilience, but also its growing dependence on artificial intelligence investment, and household purchasing power took a hit.
Understanding the FAFSA process can help families navigate college financial aid. Bill Cass, director of US Wealth Planning, explores five important considerations, from income and assets to application timing and aid offers.
The 2026 midterms may have changed Washington, but they haven’t changed the macro regime. Tariffs, geopolitics, and deficits remain key forces for investors.
Amid a rapidly changing world, where China’s rise as an industrial powerhouse has nations around the globe on alert, we believe that American reindustrialization will be an important driver of investment returns in the decade ahead.
Taken together, these trends point to a healthier, broader economic backdrop than the AI-driven narrative alone would suggest. For us as investors, it reinforces the case for individual, fundamental stockpicking over simply riding the AI wave. There's more supporting this market than one theme, and that breadth matters for how we position portfolios.
We expect the rotation to continue. The earnings bar is high—very high. Any minor misstep has led to punishment, which has led to rotation. Rotation is not a bad thing, and if you are running a diversified equity portfolio, you should be in good shape.
Election Day has markets watching how divided Washington will be over the coming two years. Jeff Schulze shares insights for investors based on different potential outcomes.
Infrastructure has long been valued for its defensive characteristics, income potential and ability to protect against inflation. Essential assets such as electricity networks, pipelines, railways, airports and toll roads typically benefit from high barriers to entry and predictable revenues.
The Fed held rates steady at its October meeting but kept the door open to further tightening, with two dissenting votes and hawkish rhetoric signaling that the pause is a skip, not a stop.
The AI investment boom has become one of the largest sources of demand in the U.S. economy. Announced annual capital spending across large U.S. technology companies points to more than $1 trillion in desired investment, up dramatically from only a few years ago.
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon details why recent volatility looks like the typical pattern of a US small-cap leadership cycle.
After overshooting projections for years, AI capex is slowing down. The shift doesn’t spell the end of the AI trade but a move to a more mature, predictable cycle that favors higher-quality borrowers.
Anybody who has lived through the past quarter century or so is familiar with the concept of a debt doom loop. Big government deficits, say, cause higher interest rates, making the government pay more to borrow and also bail out the banks that own its sinking bonds, driving it even deeper into debt. Rinse, repeat.
US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3. Currently, the Republican party is in control of the House and the Senate. This vote will essentially be a referendum on the Republican party’s body of work. It’s likely the composition of either the House or the Senate will change.
Rick Polsinello, Christian Galipeau Discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
With several provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) taking effect in 2026, year-end planning may present new opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. It’s important to assess personal finances before the end of the year to determine if action is needed.
Markets look calm on the surface, but AI-driven shifts in capital allocation, earnings quality, and funding needs are reshaping risks and opportunities beneath the index level.
Last week saw a further deterioration in the inflation outlook, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears increasingly reluctant to tighten again immediately. The September headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month/month (m/m) and 3.7% year/year (y/y), while core inflation increased 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 2.6% y/y from 2.4%.
The US Treasury market is entering a new era. Financing government debt is becoming less about capital availability and more about the yield required to attract it.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
On July 24, China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced that putting assets into an offshore trust, and earning income through one, are taxable events. The rate is 20%, and it applies not just when assets go in but also when they earn income and when the trust is wound down.
As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but increasingly differentiated. Economic growth and corporate earnings have remained resilient, while continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other productivity-enhancing technologies has supported capital spending and market sentiment.
With Brent crude above $100 a barrel for most of the past month and diesel prices more than twice as high, you might imagine that the world’s poorest fossil fuel importers would be hitting crisis conditions right now.
An income projection can provide an important starting point for year-end tax planning. Explore key 2026 tax brackets and income thresholds that may help inform planning decisions before year-end.
Global income strategies offer a compelling value proposition for investors: a steady stream of income generated from dividend-paying equities, government bonds and structured instruments like equity-linked notes (ELNs) from around the world.
Taylor Topousis and Christian Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Western Asset’s Ion Dan explains why he thinks the fundamental case for agency mortgage-backed securities has strengthened.
US Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield rising roughly 45 basis points over the past month to about 5.25%. That has understandably revived concerns about what higher bond yields could mean for equities.
Emerging markets (EMs) have historically been associated with commodity exports and low-cost manufacturing. Those characteristics remain relevant in parts of the investable universe, but the sources of competitive advantage have broadened materially.
ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.
Rising interest rates can affect more than investment portfolios. Explore how changing IRS interest rates may influence several estate, charitable and tax-planning strategies.
Seven months into the U.S.–Iran conflict, few historical analogues have held. The trajectory of oil prices has been consistent with previous geopolitical shocks, but the market response elsewhere has looked strikingly different. U.S. Treasury yields have moved notably higher, for example, while credit spreads have remained remarkably resilient.
Long before modern scanners and monitors became common, doctors often checked a patient's health with something as simple as a finger on the wrist. A pulse could reveal a surprising amount about a person's condition. Economists have their own version of this practice. Rather than relying solely on complex statistical models, they often look for signals that offer a quick health check.
In this month’s issue, AI, energy and robotics are creating new opportunities in emerging markets, but selectivity remains key as policy, cost and execution risks evolve.
Industrials are supported by increased capital spending in electricity capacity, construction around the artificial intelligence-related (AI) infrastructure buildout, defense, and energy, although higher costs and possible delays in data center construction could temper growth.
If you only looked at the price of gold in September, you’d be forgiven for believing the bull market had run out of steam. The yellow metal fell 6.3% during the month, and some in the financial press were quick to say it had failed as a safe haven.
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
Financial planners are used to reviewing their executive clients’ financial plans when a major life event occurs, whether it is a promotion, a significant salary increase, retirement, or a liquidity event. But what happens when the client stays in the exact same seat while the organization around them changes fundamentally?
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
Franklin Equity’s Grant Bowers discusses why a higher cost of capital does not change the capital expenditure outlook.
The takeaway from Q3 isn't that the IPO recovery is dead, it's that it has entered a far more tactical phase. The appetite to register is undeniably present, but the window to price comfortably has narrowed. For big names like OpenAI and Oura, taking extra time to clear safety, governance, or market noise is a luxury of strength, not desperation.
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
Asset owners want private-market exposure, but liquidity remains their biggest hurdle, an opening advisors can meet with public alternatives.
Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.
Trump Accounts are now available nationwide. Explore how the new tax-advantaged accounts work, who can contribute and key considerations for families evaluating their long-term savings options.
It’s really starting to feel like autumn now. August PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales are in the books, the September FOMC meeting is out of the way, and we can now look forward to Jobs Week on Wall Street. Football is in full swing, and earnings season begins before you know it, with Pepsi (PEP) posting results on Thursday, October 8, followed the next morning by Delta (DAL).
Global growth remains resilient but uneven. In the United States, expansion is supported by private demand, a stable labor market and AI investment, while Europe and Japan continue to show surprising strength despite ongoing risks.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are developing faster than investors anticipated just a few years ago, fueling a popular narrative that AI will trigger widespread job cuts. Yet there’s little evidence to back this view. Instead, we find that AI is changing hiring patterns, altering skill requirements and shifting the mix of work performed within firms.
While the AI trade absorbs nearly all available investor attention, owning energy covers our absolute risk while creating the risk budget to cover the AI relative risk more effectively.
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Kevin Warsh has established his hawkish credentials. Franklin Templeton CIO, Sonal Desai sees scope for further yield curve steepening and a range of selective opportunities, based on capturing income and focusing on quality rather than counting on lower rates or tighter spreads.
When billionaire Mat Ishbia’s mortgage company was facing significant losses on soured hedges earlier this year, he called old friends at Oaktree for help.
Traditional performance attribution shows which active exposures added value to a portfolio and which detracted value. But for ESG mandates, it can lead to a misleading interpretation because it doesn’t explain why certain exposures exist.
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
Advancements in technology, combined with significant stock market gains in recent years, have created a new set of opportunities—and challenges—for investors. For example, investors holding a concentrated position in a highly appreciated stock may face a difficult trade-off between the risk of a market downturn and the potentially significant tax cost of diversifying the position.
AI-driven healthcare innovation is creating strong investment opportunities by improving efficiency, expanding access, and delivering better patient outcomes.
Is the AI infrastructure buildout one big trade in credit? So far, the market seems to think so. Spread dispersion – differences in borrowing costs among issuers – across the financing chain remains limited despite sharp differences in underlying risk. This contrasts with equities, where performance has become increasingly differentiated.
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
Market madness has never been hard to diagnose. It’s almost two centuries since Charles Mackay published Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Benjamin Graham pioneered value investing in the 1930s by inviting everyone to think of “Mr. Market” as a manic-depressive who makes mistakes that can be exploited.
As students get closer to making a final college decision, the last two years of high school are particularly important. Parents will want to review their financial strategy to meet the costs of college, including a review of current savings, financial and merit aid, scholarships and loan options.
To kick off our fourth season of the Alternative Allocations podcast series, I sat down with John Bowman, CEO of CAIA Association, to explore the massive changes underway across our industry. John and I discussed CAIA’s seminal paper “The World Rewired,” and the implications for private markets.
The “K-shaped” divide endures even as it evolves. Higher-income households keep benefiting from equity gains, home price appreciation, and solid earnings, while lower-income households face mounting pressure from elevated costs and tighter credit. But recent data suggest the story is becoming more nuanced.
True diversification means gaining exposure to different drivers of performance rather than simply holding a larger count of securities. For many retail investors, this exposure is available through listed infrastructure funds, utility strategies, and ETFs focused on energy storage and industrial innovation.
After several challenging years, important parts of the health care sector appear to be reaching an inflection point. Policy uncertainty has weighed on pharmaceutical companies, constrained biotech funding has pressured the drug-development ecosystem and the normalization of pandemic-era has challenged select tool and device companies. More recently, however, several of these headwinds have begun to moderate.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made waves with his recent announcement that the Treasury would at least double the size of its buybacks of long-term debt in the coming months. He argues that long-term yields do not reflect fundamentals, suggesting that the Treasury's intervention is aimed to restore proper market functioning.
Most people experience transportation through roads and airports. Traffic jams on highways and delays at major hubs are familiar frustrations. But the world's most important transportation network lies largely out of sight.
AI-driven scarcity is allowing companies perceived as lower quality to post the revenue growth, margin expansion and rising returns that investors associate with quality, lifting estimates, multiples and stock prices.
Beneath relatively muted index-level volatility, single-stock implied volatility remains high. In today’s low-correlation environment, individual stocks are moving more independently, keeping single-name volatility high even as those moves offset at the index level.
San Antonio has been my adopted home for close to 40 years now. I’ve watched it grow through more than one boom cycle, but recent Redfin data suggests we could be looking at a bust.
The US plans to use its newfound assertion of control over billions of barrels of Venezuelan crude oil to refill the nation’s depleted emergency reserve, President Donald Trump said Sunday.
We think it’s time for investors to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core (plus) bond portfolios. Valuations have become more attractive across fixed income, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels. We share our views on when and why.
Funding a college education can be one of the biggest financial goals for a family, and it often requires a comprehensive approach.
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.
The most durable assumption in global investing is also the most outdated: that the United States is fundamentally a consumption story and China is fundamentally a capital-expenditure story.
This may come as something of a surprise since the financial press has not written or said much about how well this important—and opportunity-rich—subset of small-cap has performed over the last several months.
The WealthTech market has a serious AI-washing problem. The term borrows directly from a parallel wealth management executives already understand. Just as greenwashing described investment managers who marketed ESG commitments they could not substantiate, AI washing describes technology vendors who relabel rules-based automation as artificial intelligence.
ESG
On My Mind: Out of the Blue
The US midterm elections have brought about a major political realignment, with the Democratic Party taking decisive control of both the House and the Senate. What are the most likely implications for the economic outlook and financial markets?
The Blank-Page Problem in Values-Aligned Investing
We tend to treat values-aligned investing as a knowledge problem. As long as you learn the impact investing strategies, the client conversations will follow. However, after working alongside impact investors, wealth advisors, and the families around them, I’ve come to think there’s been a misdiagnosis.
Solving the Operational Challenges of Private Markets
Rafay Farooqui, CEO and Founder of SUBSCRIBE, joins Tony Davidow to discuss the future of fintech within private markets.
What Stocks Have Done Under a Republican President and a Democratic Congress
Tuesday’s midterms were one for the history books. Democrats won control of both the House and Senate, and they picked up governorships in Ohio, Texas and Georgia. Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1932. Our home state of Texas did so for the first time in 38 years.
Clean Power Won. Now Comes the Hard Part
Sometimes, change comes at you so fast that you forget to congratulate yourself on what you’ve achieved.
The Active Decisions Inside Every Passive ESG Fund
A client considering a passive ESG fund may associate “passive” with the low-cost, diversified market exposure familiar from broad-market index funds. But understanding how the fund tracks its index is different from understanding the sustainability judgments that index expresses.
The Affordability Crisis Isn’t About Inflation
The big message from the midterms is that Americans are struggling with the cost of living. In case anyone missed it, they need relief now. This will put even more attention on the Federal Reserve: Will Chair Kevin Warsh do all he can to bring down inflation or placate the White House, which wants lower interest rates?
Panic at the Disco
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Quick View: An Argument for the Long View During AI Volatility
Portfolio Manager Denny Fish explains why the market was justified in assigning a higher level of regulatory risk to the AI ecosystem after the midterm elections. But in his view, the secular strength of this theme, along with the massive bottlenecks and geopolitical implications, mean that this historic investment cycle will likely continue.
The AI Selloff and Portfolio Implications
Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Larry Hatheway opine on the US stock market’s recent volatility in the wake of the US midterm elections and the path forward for investors.
Strong Growth, Emerging Cracks
The big story last week? The Federal Reserve paused despite stronger growth and persistent inflation. It was a hawkish pause, with a December hike still the base case, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. Third-quarter gross domestic product showed the US economy's resilience, but also its growing dependence on artificial intelligence investment, and household purchasing power took a hit.
Five Things Families Should Know About the FAFSA
Understanding the FAFSA process can help families navigate college financial aid. Bill Cass, director of US Wealth Planning, explores five important considerations, from income and assets to application timing and aid offers.
Midterms Change Congress, Not the Macro Regime
The 2026 midterms may have changed Washington, but they haven’t changed the macro regime. Tariffs, geopolitics, and deficits remain key forces for investors.
Investing in American Resilience
Amid a rapidly changing world, where China’s rise as an industrial powerhouse has nations around the globe on alert, we believe that American reindustrialization will be an important driver of investment returns in the decade ahead.
Where Investors Aren’t Looking
Taken together, these trends point to a healthier, broader economic backdrop than the AI-driven narrative alone would suggest. For us as investors, it reinforces the case for individual, fundamental stockpicking over simply riding the AI wave. There's more supporting this market than one theme, and that breadth matters for how we position portfolios.
The Rotation Will Continue Until Morale Improves
We expect the rotation to continue. The earnings bar is high—very high. Any minor misstep has led to punishment, which has led to rotation. Rotation is not a bad thing, and if you are running a diversified equity portfolio, you should be in good shape.
The Big Picture Beats Politics
Election Day has markets watching how divided Washington will be over the coming two years. Jeff Schulze shares insights for investors based on different potential outcomes.
Infrastructure’s Essential Assets Have Expanding Ambitions
Infrastructure has long been valued for its defensive characteristics, income potential and ability to protect against inflation. Essential assets such as electricity networks, pipelines, railways, airports and toll roads typically benefit from high barriers to entry and predictable revenues.
October FOMC Recap—No Hike But Hawk Talk Persists
The Fed held rates steady at its October meeting but kept the door open to further tightening, with two dissenting votes and hawkish rhetoric signaling that the pause is a skip, not a stop.
Is AI Crowding Out the Rest of the Economy?
The AI investment boom has become one of the largest sources of demand in the U.S. economy. Announced annual capital spending across large U.S. technology companies points to more than $1 trillion in desired investment, up dramatically from only a few years ago.
The US Small-Cap Bull Market: A Correction, Not a Conclusion
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon details why recent volatility looks like the typical pattern of a US small-cap leadership cycle.
The AI Soft Landing Scenario
After overshooting projections for years, AI capex is slowing down. The shift doesn’t spell the end of the AI trade but a move to a more mature, predictable cycle that favors higher-quality borrowers.
A New Era of Debt Doom Loops Has Begun
Anybody who has lived through the past quarter century or so is familiar with the concept of a debt doom loop. Big government deficits, say, cause higher interest rates, making the government pay more to borrow and also bail out the banks that own its sinking bonds, driving it even deeper into debt. Rinse, repeat.
The Midterm Market Effect
US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3. Currently, the Republican party is in control of the House and the Senate. This vote will essentially be a referendum on the Republican party’s body of work. It’s likely the composition of either the House or the Senate will change.
AI Wobbles. Treasuries Step Up.
Rick Polsinello, Christian Galipeau Discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
A Checklist May Help Taxpayers Navigate Year-End Planning
With several provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) taking effect in 2026, year-end planning may present new opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. It’s important to assess personal finances before the end of the year to determine if action is needed.
Calm on the Surface, Steady as She Goes?
Markets look calm on the surface, but AI-driven shifts in capital allocation, earnings quality, and funding needs are reshaping risks and opportunities beneath the index level.
Resilient Growth, Sticky Inflation
Last week saw a further deterioration in the inflation outlook, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears increasingly reluctant to tighten again immediately. The September headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month/month (m/m) and 3.7% year/year (y/y), while core inflation increased 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 2.6% y/y from 2.4%.
US Treasuries: A Market in Transition
The US Treasury market is entering a new era. Financing government debt is becoming less about capital availability and more about the yield required to attract it.
Hot Inflation. Cold Chips. Stay Diversified.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Wealth Taxes Are Driving Money Out of China and California
On July 24, China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced that putting assets into an offshore trust, and earning income through one, are taxable events. The rate is 20%, and it applies not just when assets go in but also when they earn income and when the trust is wound down.
Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2026
As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but increasingly differentiated. Economic growth and corporate earnings have remained resilient, while continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other productivity-enhancing technologies has supported capital spending and market sentiment.
Fossil Fuels Are Winning the Battle for Easy Money
With Brent crude above $100 a barrel for most of the past month and diesel prices more than twice as high, you might imagine that the world’s poorest fossil fuel importers would be hitting crisis conditions right now.
Year-End Planning Begins With Projecting Income
An income projection can provide an important starting point for year-end tax planning. Explore key 2026 tax brackets and income thresholds that may help inform planning decisions before year-end.
The Case for Global Income
Global income strategies offer a compelling value proposition for investors: a steady stream of income generated from dividend-paying equities, government bonds and structured instruments like equity-linked notes (ELNs) from around the world.
The Bar Is High—Can Earnings Clear It Again?
Taylor Topousis and Christian Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Agency MBS Offer a Compelling Current Opportunity for Reserve Managers
Western Asset’s Ion Dan explains why he thinks the fundamental case for agency mortgage-backed securities has strengthened.
Bond Market Blues—Real or Inflationary?
US Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield rising roughly 45 basis points over the past month to about 5.25%. That has understandably revived concerns about what higher bond yields could mean for equities.
From Scale to Innovation
Emerging markets (EMs) have historically been associated with commodity exports and low-cost manufacturing. Those characteristics remain relevant in parts of the investable universe, but the sources of competitive advantage have broadened materially.
Love at First Hike? It Could Be
ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.
Rising Interest Rates: What They Mean for Wealth Planning
Rising interest rates can affect more than investment portfolios. Explore how changing IRS interest rates may influence several estate, charitable and tax-planning strategies.
An Oil Shock (Mostly) Like No Other
Seven months into the U.S.–Iran conflict, few historical analogues have held. The trajectory of oil prices has been consistent with previous geopolitical shocks, but the market response elsewhere has looked strikingly different. U.S. Treasury yields have moved notably higher, for example, while credit spreads have remained remarkably resilient.
A Metal in High Demand
Long before modern scanners and monitors became common, doctors often checked a patient's health with something as simple as a finger on the wrist. A pulse could reveal a surprising amount about a person's condition. Economists have their own version of this practice. Rather than relying solely on complex statistical models, they often look for signals that offer a quick health check.
AI, Energy and Robotics
In this month’s issue, AI, energy and robotics are creating new opportunities in emerging markets, but selectivity remains key as policy, cost and execution risks evolve.
Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Industrials are supported by increased capital spending in electricity capacity, construction around the artificial intelligence-related (AI) infrastructure buildout, defense, and energy, although higher costs and possible delays in data center construction could temper growth.
Gold Stumbled in September, but Gold Miners Beat Every Sector in the S&P 500
If you only looked at the price of gold in September, you’d be forgiven for believing the bull market had run out of steam. The yellow metal fell 6.3% during the month, and some in the financial press were quick to say it had failed as a safe haven.
Will the Real Yield Please Stand Up?!
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
When the Company Changes Before the Client
Financial planners are used to reviewing their executive clients’ financial plans when a major life event occurs, whether it is a promotion, a significant salary increase, retirement, or a liquidity event. But what happens when the client stays in the exact same seat while the organization around them changes fundamentally?
Recalibrating Rates, Not Tightening Policy
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.
Why Waiting for Certainty Could Be Costly
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
The Next Phase of AI is an Earnings Story
Franklin Equity’s Grant Bowers discusses why a higher cost of capital does not change the capital expenditure outlook.
Do Oura and OpenAI IPO Delays Foreshadow a Slowdown in Dealmaking for Q4?
The takeaway from Q3 isn't that the IPO recovery is dead, it's that it has entered a far more tactical phase. The appetite to register is undeniably present, but the window to price comfortably has narrowed. For big names like OpenAI and Oura, taking extra time to clear safety, governance, or market noise is a luxury of strength, not desperation.
Supercharge Your Roth Savings With After-Tax Contributions
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
House Call
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The Private-Market Liquidity Gap Advisors Can Close
Asset owners want private-market exposure, but liquidity remains their biggest hurdle, an opening advisors can meet with public alternatives.
A Broader Market, a Stronger Case for Dividend Growth
Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.
Trump Accounts Are Here: What Families Need to Know
Trump Accounts are now available nationwide. Explore how the new tax-advantaged accounts work, who can contribute and key considerations for families evaluating their long-term savings options.
October Could Bring New Market Surprises as Earnings Season Nears: Here’s What to Watch
It’s really starting to feel like autumn now. August PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales are in the books, the September FOMC meeting is out of the way, and we can now look forward to Jobs Week on Wall Street. Football is in full swing, and earnings season begins before you know it, with Pepsi (PEP) posting results on Thursday, October 8, followed the next morning by Delta (DAL).
Growth Holds, Pressure Builds
Global growth remains resilient but uneven. In the United States, expansion is supported by private demand, a stable labor market and AI investment, while Europe and Japan continue to show surprising strength despite ongoing risks.
So Far, AI Is Reshaping More Than Cutting the Workforce
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are developing faster than investors anticipated just a few years ago, fueling a popular narrative that AI will trigger widespread job cuts. Yet there’s little evidence to back this view. Instead, we find that AI is changing hiring patterns, altering skill requirements and shifting the mix of work performed within firms.
Energy Hedges the AI Trade
While the AI trade absorbs nearly all available investor attention, owning energy covers our absolute risk while creating the risk budget to cover the AI relative risk more effectively.
On My Mind: One Flew Over the Dove’s Nest
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Kevin Warsh has established his hawkish credentials. Franklin Templeton CIO, Sonal Desai sees scope for further yield curve steepening and a range of selective opportunities, based on capturing income and focusing on quality rather than counting on lower rates or tighter spreads.
Oaktree’s $1.5 Billion UWM Deal Shows New Zeal for Complex Bets
When billionaire Mat Ishbia’s mortgage company was facing significant losses on soured hedges earlier this year, he called old friends at Oaktree for help.
Here We Go Again—Another Hiking Cycle?
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
ESG Attribution Analysis: What Traditional Attribution Doesn’t Explain About Values-Based Portfolios
Traditional performance attribution shows which active exposures added value to a portfolio and which detracted value. But for ESG mandates, it can lead to a misleading interpretation because it doesn’t explain why certain exposures exist.
Pacing the Frontier
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
Energy Addition Within the Transition
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
Planning Considerations for a Direct Indexing Program
Advancements in technology, combined with significant stock market gains in recent years, have created a new set of opportunities—and challenges—for investors. For example, investors holding a concentrated position in a highly appreciated stock may face a difficult trade-off between the risk of a market downturn and the potentially significant tax cost of diversifying the position.
Charting the Structural Growth Opportunity in Health Care Technology
AI-driven healthcare innovation is creating strong investment opportunities by improving efficiency, expanding access, and delivering better patient outcomes.
From the US Market Desk: From Missouri
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
One AI Trade for Now, Many Trades Later
Is the AI infrastructure buildout one big trade in credit? So far, the market seems to think so. Spread dispersion – differences in borrowing costs among issuers – across the financing chain remains limited despite sharp differences in underlying risk. This contrasts with equities, where performance has become increasingly differentiated.
Cheap Drones Are Repricing Global Energy Markets
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
The Many Signs of Madness in Markets
Market madness has never been hard to diagnose. It’s almost two centuries since Charles Mackay published Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Benjamin Graham pioneered value investing in the 1930s by inviting everyone to think of “Mr. Market” as a manic-depressive who makes mistakes that can be exploited.
High School Action Plan Part 2: Junior and Senior Years
As students get closer to making a final college decision, the last two years of high school are particularly important. Parents will want to review their financial strategy to meet the costs of college, including a review of current savings, financial and merit aid, scholarships and loan options.
The World Rewired—AI, Private Markets & the Future of Investing
To kick off our fourth season of the Alternative Allocations podcast series, I sat down with John Bowman, CEO of CAIA Association, to explore the massive changes underway across our industry. John and I discussed CAIA’s seminal paper “The World Rewired,” and the implications for private markets.
How a K-Shaped Economy Affects Opportunities in Asset Based Finance
The “K-shaped” divide endures even as it evolves. Higher-income households keep benefiting from equity gains, home price appreciation, and solid earnings, while lower-income households face mounting pressure from elevated costs and tighter credit. But recent data suggest the story is becoming more nuanced.
Rethinking Diversification in the AI Economy
True diversification means gaining exposure to different drivers of performance rather than simply holding a larger count of securities. For many retail investors, this exposure is available through listed infrastructure funds, utility strategies, and ETFs focused on energy storage and industrial innovation.
Health Care’s Next Act: Tailwinds Emerging Across R&D Cycle
After several challenging years, important parts of the health care sector appear to be reaching an inflection point. Policy uncertainty has weighed on pharmaceutical companies, constrained biotech funding has pressured the drug-development ecosystem and the normalization of pandemic-era has challenged select tool and device companies. More recently, however, several of these headwinds have begun to moderate.
Rearranging the Debt Chairs
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made waves with his recent announcement that the Treasury would at least double the size of its buybacks of long-term debt in the coming months. He argues that long-term yields do not reflect fundamentals, suggesting that the Treasury's intervention is aimed to restore proper market functioning.
Maritime Pressure Points
Most people experience transportation through roads and airports. Traffic jams on highways and delays at major hubs are familiar frustrations. But the world's most important transportation network lies largely out of sight.
When Revenue Acceleration Overwhelms Quality
AI-driven scarcity is allowing companies perceived as lower quality to post the revenue growth, margin expansion and rising returns that investors associate with quality, lifting estimates, multiples and stock prices.
Income Opportunities Beneath the Surface: Equity Volatility and Credit Dislocations
Beneath relatively muted index-level volatility, single-stock implied volatility remains high. In today’s low-correlation environment, individual stocks are moving more independently, keeping single-name volatility high even as those moves offset at the index level.
There Are Now Half a Million More Home Sellers Than Buyers
San Antonio has been my adopted home for close to 40 years now. I’ve watched it grow through more than one boom cycle, but recent Redfin data suggests we could be looking at a bust.
Venezuelan Oil Will Be Used to Refill US Reserve, Trump Says
The US plans to use its newfound assertion of control over billions of barrels of Venezuelan crude oil to refill the nation’s depleted emergency reserve, President Donald Trump said Sunday.
Core Bond (Plus): What’s Under the Hood and When to Consider It
We think it’s time for investors to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core (plus) bond portfolios. Valuations have become more attractive across fixed income, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels. We share our views on when and why.
High School Action Plan Part 1: Freshman and Sophomore Years
Funding a college education can be one of the biggest financial goals for a family, and it often requires a comprehensive approach.
Today’s Interest Rates: Not the New Normal, Just Normal
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.
The Great Inversion: Investment Opportunities Amid a New Paradigm
The most durable assumption in global investing is also the most outdated: that the United States is fundamentally a consumption story and China is fundamentally a capital-expenditure story.
Are US Micro-Caps the Market’s Best Kept Secret?
This may come as something of a surprise since the financial press has not written or said much about how well this important—and opportunity-rich—subset of small-cap has performed over the last several months.
AI Washing in WealthTech: How to Tell the Real from the Relabeled
The WealthTech market has a serious AI-washing problem. The term borrows directly from a parallel wealth management executives already understand. Just as greenwashing described investment managers who marketed ESG commitments they could not substantiate, AI washing describes technology vendors who relabel rules-based automation as artificial intelligence.