The Treasury market rallied after an auction of 10-year notes drew strong demand, easing concerns that investors will balk at financing swelling US deficits.
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
In this article, you’ll learn how to evaluate crypto ETFs with the same rigor you apply to traditional investment products.
ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.
If you're thinking about adding subscription services to your financial planning practice, you're not alone. More advisors are moving beyond the traditional AUM model to offer monthly subscription plans, and for good reason.
Wall Street’s latest tax dodge doesn’t hide in the Cayman Islands or rely on complex derivatives.
Wall Street’s latest tax dodge doesn’t hide in the Cayman Islands or rely on complex derivatives. It’s engineered to turn a publicly traded fund into a tax-minimizing machine that hums quietly on autopilot.
Opinions of the One Big Beautiful Bill tend toward the extreme. One of its main authors calls it “the greatest piece of Republican legislation in a generation,” while one of its most authoritative critics says it makes him ashamed to be an American.
The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.
In the latest Alternative Allocations, with guest Brian Ullsperger from Andersen, Tony Davidow examines the traditional 60/40 portfolio and how it can be expanded to include alternatives to meet clients’ needs.
If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
Asian countries including Japan and South Korea said they’ll keep pushing for a better deal for their exports to the US after President Donald Trump shifted his tariff deadline to Aug. 1 and tweaked the rates he’s set for many economies.
US equities were steady at the open on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff warnings left room for hope that he was still open to negotiations.
It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.
As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.
This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.
In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and even markets was unanimous (or nearly so) that there was good news to celebrate.
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.
President Donald Trump plans to announce trade deals and deliver tariff warnings on Monday, as countries negotiated through the weekend to avoid the highest punitive measures on their exports to the US before a Wednesday deadline.
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.
As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.
The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
Treasuries tumbled after a stronger-than-expected jobs report for June prompted traders to exit bets on an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
With mortgage rates still near 7%, even relatively wealthy households are choosing to rent rather than buy, and it’s easy to understand why.
Forget Tesla for a moment. Just imagine an anonymous company with the following characteristics.
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
An economy cannot subsist on services alone.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
Financial advice is going to be in more demand than ever in 10 years. Is your firm ready for the challenge?
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.
As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.
Only a subset of subsidies will be rolled back.
The European Union is willing to accept a trade arrangement with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but wants the US to commit to lower rates than that on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft.
Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney handed US President Donald Trump a win in the hope of making bigger gains in trade negotiations.
Margin loan recommendations are often presented by brokers as tax-savvy strategies that allow clients to access “tax-free” cash while keeping their portfolios intact. In many cases, however, the math benefits the advisor more than the investor.
A turf war is breaking out in the vast world of digital payments — and the incumbents are suddenly on defense.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Almost everything said about Tesla Inc. these days ranges from bad to worse.
Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.
Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.
In a recent newsletter, we explored the explosive growth of ETFs and the implications for portfolio construction. In this follow-up blog post, Lauren and I wanted to take that conversation a step further—diving deeper into how advisors can navigate the ever-expanding ETF universe while staying true to their investment philosophy.
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Stocks are wrapping up a stellar quarter at all-time highs amid signs of progress in US trade talks while hopes the Federal Reserve will resume its rate cuts drove Treasuries toward their biggest first-half stretch in five years. The dollar eyed its longest monthly slide since 2017.
Despite concerns regarding the electrical power grid, there are solutions to meet the surge in AI-driven energy demand. For example, nuclear energy is making a comeback.
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.
We continue to suggest an "up in quality" fixed income bias for the short run, but investors can still consider some of the riskier parts of the fixed income market in moderation.
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.
It’s often said there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes. However, the tax landscape may become somewhat murkier, as the recently passed U.S. House budget bill may potentially lead to some non-U.S. investors paying more taxes than previously anticipated.
As the advisory landscape continues to evolve, one theme is increasingly clear: advisors need more flexibility to meet the diverse and growing expectations of their clients.
Until that US government debt-crisis moment arrives, which we will get through, things will muddle along.
Index futures inched upward premarket as the headline May PCE data landed in line with expectations, though the core data and annual figures were up slightly.
There’s plenty of talk about how India’s 600-million-strong workforce gives it a unique edge in the US-China spat over trade and technology.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was flat in May and was up 3.9% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was down 0.60% month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since January 2022. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.73%.
US stocks climbed Thursday, ending the day on the cusp of a record as optimism around potential rate cuts stoked risk-on sentiment across financial markets.
Today’s investment landscape, shaped by persistently above-target inflation, structurally higher debt and deficits, and reduced global dollar recycling into US financial markets, has contributed to elevated market volatility alongside historically high policy uncertainty.
The newest generation of college graduates will switch jobs more than a dozen times over the course of their careers. They will juggle side gigs, launch businesses, and step in and out of traditional roles.
The Fed left rates unchanged and signaled it’s still in wait-and-see mode, even as inflation risks and policy uncertainty persist.
As tax policy discussions continue on Capitol Hill, the Senate Finance Committee recently released its version of the tax bill that would avoid the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
ETFs have surged in popularity thanks to their transparency, low costs and tax efficiency. But behind the scenes, a unique dual-market system powers their liquidity and accessibility.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in May, coming in at 72.6. This marks a 1.8% increase from April, higher than the anticipated 0.2% rise, and a 1.1% increase from one year ago.
The Senate is getting close to the finish line on its version of the "One Big Beautiful" tax-and-spending bill.
Target-date fund glide paths can be important tools for retirement planning. Advisors should focus on assumptions, transparency, and outcomes to ensure they align with participants' needs.
OBBBA sets a path for more borrowing ahead.
It’s said nothing in life is certain save death and taxes. There is also certainly an increase in investors’ appetites for nontraditional instruments like hedge funds as their wealth grows.
While both valuation and technical factors suggest to us that the dollar may continue to weaken in the near-term, we would caution investors against reading too much concerning the US’ long-term economic stability into further dollar weakness.
AQR Capital Management is doubling down on a strategy that seeks to juice returns with leverage for its first new US mutual funds in four years.
President Donald Trump’s economic policies will reduce US fiscal deficits by up to $11 trillion over the coming decade, according to the White House’s chief economist — a projection at variance with independent analysis.
How do direct indexing ideas fit into a fixed income portfolio? These two powerful strategies make one compelling combination with potential tax and risk management opportunities.
Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries remains intact.
The U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend has added a modest premium to oil, and in the Sunday evening market, stocks opened only slightly lower. Any resolution to the crisis could send stocks to new all-time highs.
VettaFi’s Todd Rosenbluth joins host Nate Geraci to break down the top ETF stories shaping the first half of 2025. Astoria’s Bruce Lavine dives into one of the industry’s hottest topics: 351 Exchanges – what they are and why they matter.
Whether you’re breaking away from a wirehouse and going independent for the first time or looking for a greater degree of balance, there are opportunities for advisors to truly manage their practice the way they choose.
Investors have been waiting years for the chance to buy a stake in hedge fund Millennium Management.
The current round of budget discussions in Washington will have a significant impact on America’s fiscal trajectory decades into the future. A key underpinning of this year’s debate has roots that go decades into the past.
When navigating the unknown, an experienced guide can ensure you don’t veer off the path to your chosen destination, can prevent you from stumbling over hazards, and ensure you have the tools you need to finish the journey safely and soundly.
For the fourth meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.
Tax Loss Harvesting
US Treasuries Jump as Strong Auction Calms Investor Jitters
The Treasury market rallied after an auction of 10-year notes drew strong demand, easing concerns that investors will balk at financing swelling US deficits.
At the Midway Point: Returning to the Fundamentals
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
Midyear Commodity Outlook: Better for Commodities than Consumers
We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.
Emerging Markets Insights: Seeking Clarity on Tariffs
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
How to Choose a Crypto ETF: A Practical Guide for Financial Advisors
In this article, you’ll learn how to evaluate crypto ETFs with the same rigor you apply to traditional investment products.
The Long View: Push-pull
ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.
Breaking Down the Regulatory Requirements for Subscription Services
If you're thinking about adding subscription services to your financial planning practice, you're not alone. More advisors are moving beyond the traditional AUM model to offer monthly subscription plans, and for good reason.
Wall Street Builds S&P 500 ‘No Dividend’ Fund in New Tax Dodge
Wall Street’s latest tax dodge doesn’t hide in the Cayman Islands or rely on complex derivatives.
Wall Street Builds S&P 500 ‘No Dividend’ Fund in New Tax Dodge
Wall Street’s latest tax dodge doesn’t hide in the Cayman Islands or rely on complex derivatives. It’s engineered to turn a publicly traded fund into a tax-minimizing machine that hums quietly on autopilot.
Megabills Didn’t Break the Economy Before and Won’t Now
Opinions of the One Big Beautiful Bill tend toward the extreme. One of its main authors calls it “the greatest piece of Republican legislation in a generation,” while one of its most authoritative critics says it makes him ashamed to be an American.
Jobs Report Better Than Feared
The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.
Examining the 60/40 Portfolio With Brian Ullsperger
In the latest Alternative Allocations, with guest Brian Ullsperger from Andersen, Tony Davidow examines the traditional 60/40 portfolio and how it can be expanded to include alternatives to meet clients’ needs.
Wall Street Is Wrong on Airlines: Americans Are Flying Like Never Before
If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.
Equities Enter Slightly Calmer Waters
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
Asian Economies in Rush to Cut Tariff Deals as US Deadline Moves
Asian countries including Japan and South Korea said they’ll keep pushing for a better deal for their exports to the US after President Donald Trump shifted his tariff deadline to Aug. 1 and tweaked the rates he’s set for many economies.
Stocks Hold Steady on Hope Trade Talks Have Room for Negotiation
US equities were steady at the open on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff warnings left room for hope that he was still open to negotiations.
A Solid Quarter Signals Promising Potential
It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.
Multi-Asset Midyear Outlook: Selectivity Matters
As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.
Fixed Income In Focus: 2025 Mid-Year Recap
This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.
Not So Hot
In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and even markets was unanimous (or nearly so) that there was good news to celebrate.
Behind the Meter Solutions Investing Guide
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
At The Crossroads
In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.
Trump Sets Aug. 1 Start for Tariffs Ahead of Wednesday Deadline
President Donald Trump plans to announce trade deals and deliver tariff warnings on Monday, as countries negotiated through the weekend to avoid the highest punitive measures on their exports to the US before a Wednesday deadline.
Mid-Year Themes
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
Quantstreet July 2025 Letter: Geopolitics and Markets
After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.
Quick Thoughts: The Global Reset
As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.
Senate Approves Revised Tax and Spending Bill
The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Sustained in June
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
Bond Traders Scrap Bets on July Rate Cut After Strong Jobs Data
Treasuries tumbled after a stronger-than-expected jobs report for June prompted traders to exit bets on an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
Today’s Housing Math Favors Buying — Even in Austin
With mortgage rates still near 7%, even relatively wealthy households are choosing to rent rather than buy, and it’s easy to understand why.
Tesla Hit Refresh on Its EVs. It Didn't Work.: Liam Denning
Forget Tesla for a moment. Just imagine an anonymous company with the following characteristics.
Under the Macroscope: Why Cutting the SLR Matters
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity Markets Found Traction in June
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
Midyear Fixed Income Outlook: Starting Yields Matter Amid Uncertainty
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
A Lesson From Recent History
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
India's Incomplete Growth
An economy cannot subsist on services alone.
Markets Soar on Rate Cut Hopes, Job Strength
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Expanding the Field
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
The Advisors Who Will Thrive in 2035 Are Planning in 2025
Financial advice is going to be in more demand than ever in 10 years. Is your firm ready for the challenge?
Expand Your Mind and Your Commodity Universe
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
Stocks Slip From Highs as Senate Marathon Persists
The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.
Active Management Comes for Private Credit
As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.
Rethinking U.S. Infrastructure Investment
Only a subset of subsidies will be rolled back.
EU to Accept Trump Universal Tariff but Seeks Key Exemptions
The European Union is willing to accept a trade arrangement with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but wants the US to commit to lower rates than that on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft.
Fireworks Ahead: Jobs Data Loom After Record Highs
Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.
Carney Gives Trump a Small Trade Victory in Hunt for Larger Deal
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney handed US President Donald Trump a win in the hope of making bigger gains in trade negotiations.
Beware of Borrowing That Helps Your Advisor, Not You
Margin loan recommendations are often presented by brokers as tax-savvy strategies that allow clients to access “tax-free” cash while keeping their portfolios intact. In many cases, however, the math benefits the advisor more than the investor.
Visa, Mastercard Race to Capture a $253 Billion Crypto Threat
A turf war is breaking out in the vast world of digital payments — and the incumbents are suddenly on defense.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Highest Level in Three Years
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Let AI Explain Why Tesla's Critics Are Losing
Almost everything said about Tesla Inc. these days ranges from bad to worse.
Trump Succeeds at Pushing NATO to Spend Five Percent as New Arms Race Begins
Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.
Simmering Down
Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.
ETFs Are Evolving—Is Your Portfolio Strategy Keeping Up?
In a recent newsletter, we explored the explosive growth of ETFs and the implications for portfolio construction. In this follow-up blog post, Lauren and I wanted to take that conversation a step further—diving deeper into how advisors can navigate the ever-expanding ETF universe while staying true to their investment philosophy.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: June 2025
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
S&P 500 Set for Best Quarter Since December 2023
Stocks are wrapping up a stellar quarter at all-time highs amid signs of progress in US trade talks while hopes the Federal Reserve will resume its rate cuts drove Treasuries toward their biggest first-half stretch in five years. The dollar eyed its longest monthly slide since 2017.
Fueling AI Data Centers: Behind the Meter Solutions
Despite concerns regarding the electrical power grid, there are solutions to meet the surge in AI-driven energy demand. For example, nuclear energy is making a comeback.
Monitoring Portfolio News Using AI
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
The Fed’s “Transitory” Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook
The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.
Corporate Bonds: Mid-Year 2025 Outlook
We continue to suggest an "up in quality" fixed income bias for the short run, but investors can still consider some of the riskier parts of the fixed income market in moderation.
Bend, Not Break: Investing in Real Estate Amid Economic Uncertainty
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.
Meet the 899-Ton Elephant in U.S. Tax Reform
It’s often said there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes. However, the tax landscape may become somewhat murkier, as the recently passed U.S. House budget bill may potentially lead to some non-U.S. investors paying more taxes than previously anticipated.
Why More Advisors than Ever are Personalizing Portfolios with Tax-Efficient SMAs
As the advisory landscape continues to evolve, one theme is increasingly clear: advisors need more flexibility to meet the diverse and growing expectations of their clients.
The Great Slowdown
Until that US government debt-crisis moment arrives, which we will get through, things will muddle along.
Core Inflation Rose in May, Indexes Near High
Index futures inched upward premarket as the headline May PCE data landed in line with expectations, though the core data and annual figures were up slightly.
India’s Banks Will Lend. Will Tycoons Borrow?
There’s plenty of talk about how India’s 600-million-strong workforce gives it a unique edge in the US-China spat over trade and technology.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Down 0.1% in May
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was flat in May and was up 3.9% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.7% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was down 0.60% month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since January 2022. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.73%.
S&P 500 Extends Rally, Closing Just Short of Its All-Time High
US stocks climbed Thursday, ending the day on the cusp of a record as optimism around potential rate cuts stoked risk-on sentiment across financial markets.
A Bond Alternative for the New Era of Investing
Today’s investment landscape, shaped by persistently above-target inflation, structurally higher debt and deficits, and reduced global dollar recycling into US financial markets, has contributed to elevated market volatility alongside historically high policy uncertainty.
401(k)s Weren’t Built for the Gen Z Economy
The newest generation of college graduates will switch jobs more than a dozen times over the course of their careers. They will juggle side gigs, launch businesses, and step in and out of traditional roles.
Continued Risk to Both Sides of the Dual Mandate
The Fed left rates unchanged and signaled it’s still in wait-and-see mode, even as inflation risks and policy uncertainty persist.
Senate Tax Proposal: Some Key Provisions Differ From House Bill
As tax policy discussions continue on Capitol Hill, the Senate Finance Committee recently released its version of the tax bill that would avoid the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
Understanding the Primary and Secondary Markets in ETFs
ETFs have surged in popularity thanks to their transparency, low costs and tax efficiency. But behind the scenes, a unique dual-market system powers their liquidity and accessibility.
Pending Home Sales Up 1.8% in May, Higher Than Expected
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in May, coming in at 72.6. This marks a 1.8% increase from April, higher than the anticipated 0.2% rise, and a 1.1% increase from one year ago.
Washington: What to Watch Now
The Senate is getting close to the finish line on its version of the "One Big Beautiful" tax-and-spending bill.
Why Glide Path Selection Deserves More Attention in Target-Date Fund Evaluation
Target-date fund glide paths can be important tools for retirement planning. Advisors should focus on assumptions, transparency, and outcomes to ensure they align with participants' needs.
Big Bill Promises Big Bills
OBBBA sets a path for more borrowing ahead.
PPLI and PPVA: Vehicles for tax-efficient growth
It’s said nothing in life is certain save death and taxes. There is also certainly an increase in investors’ appetites for nontraditional instruments like hedge funds as their wealth grows.
‘King Dollar’ Challenged…But Not Vanquished: Still No Substitute for the World’s Reserve Currency
While both valuation and technical factors suggest to us that the dollar may continue to weaken in the near-term, we would caution investors against reading too much concerning the US’ long-term economic stability into further dollar weakness.
AQR Bets on Levered Trades in First New US Mutual Funds in Years
AQR Capital Management is doubling down on a strategy that seeks to juice returns with leverage for its first new US mutual funds in four years.
Trump Policies Will Cut Deficits Up to $11 Trillion, White House Economist Says
President Donald Trump’s economic policies will reduce US fiscal deficits by up to $11 trillion over the coming decade, according to the White House’s chief economist — a projection at variance with independent analysis.
Customize to Optimize: Combining Fixed Income and Direct Indexing
How do direct indexing ideas fit into a fixed income portfolio? These two powerful strategies make one compelling combination with potential tax and risk management opportunities.
U.S. Bonds Are Still Popular
Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries remains intact.
Markets Taking U.S. Strike Well
The U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend has added a modest premium to oil, and in the Sunday evening market, stocks opened only slightly lower. Any resolution to the crisis could send stocks to new all-time highs.
Top ETF Stories of 2025: A Mid-Year Recap with VettaFi’s Todd Rosenbluth
VettaFi’s Todd Rosenbluth joins host Nate Geraci to break down the top ETF stories shaping the first half of 2025. Astoria’s Bruce Lavine dives into one of the industry’s hottest topics: 351 Exchanges – what they are and why they matter.
Getting the Flexibility to Serve Clients as You’d Like To
Whether you’re breaking away from a wirehouse and going independent for the first time or looking for a greater degree of balance, there are opportunities for advisors to truly manage their practice the way they choose.
Millennium's $14 Billion Valuation Hinges on Scarcity
Investors have been waiting years for the chance to buy a stake in hedge fund Millennium Management.
Back to the Supply Side
The current round of budget discussions in Washington will have a significant impact on America’s fiscal trajectory decades into the future. A key underpinning of this year’s debate has roots that go decades into the past.
Value of an Advisor 10th Anniversary Edition: The Importance of an Experienced Guide June
When navigating the unknown, an experienced guide can ensure you don’t veer off the path to your chosen destination, can prevent you from stumbling over hazards, and ensure you have the tools you need to finish the journey safely and soundly.
Fed Watch: In No Hurry
For the fourth meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.