Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
The latest new orders number at 5.6% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 2.5% estimate. The series is up 11.9% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was down 0.1% MoM and up 2.1% YoY.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 186K new claims, down 6k from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 205K.
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
As of January 23, the price of regular and premium gas were up 11 and 9 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.94 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.05. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.62 and is up 1.8% from last week.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.33M was down 1.55% from the November reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.37M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.382M was slightly above the Investing.com forecast of 1.359M and is a 1.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.401M.
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
Bond traders were once deemed so powerful and all-knowing that Tom Wolfe described them as the “Masters of the Universe” in his classic 1987 novel “The Bonfire of the Vanities” that used Wall Street as its backdrop.
The latest manufacturing index came in at -8.9, up 4.8 from last month's -13.7, marking the index's fifth negative reading in a row and the seventh in the last eight months. The three-month moving average came in at -12.7, down from last month. The six-month outlook came in at 4.9, up from the previous month's -0.9. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.
Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
Wall Street bond dealers are moving rapidly to the sidelines of US Treasury auctions — the very activity that defines their status at the heart of the world’s biggest bond market.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
We are now seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. soared Wednesday, more than wiping out a 46% drop last week and sparking a rally in other so-called meme stocks.
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
With market volatility expected to continue in 2023, the biggest question on investors’ minds is how they can prepare for the investing challenges ahead. While preparing for volatility is a good start, it also brings opportunity if you know where to look.
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
Healthcare stocks have remained in vogue through volatile markets, driven by increased interest in the sector during COVID-19.
Although inflation appears to have peaked, historical data suggests that prices are unlikely to reverse themselves, which could lead to an extended period of wage inflation.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 223K.
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
The headline number for December came in at 89.8, down 2.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 7th percentile in this series.
Investors are bracing for a miserable stretch of earnings reports that will likely extend the dominance of value shares as Corporate America grapples with high inflation and rising borrowing costs, the latest MLIV Pulse survey shows.
Let's take a closer look at this week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
Countless investment practitioners and academics have unsuccessfully searched for the metric that can successfully identify future mutual fund outperformers. What follows is the saga of the latest failed attempt.
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
Chinese equities have been on a tear in the first week of 2023, and investors are gearing up for more gains with consumer-related stocks expected to spearhead the surge.
The $6.5 trillion US ETF industry boomed in 2022 as innovative product debuts and market volatility fueled a near-record number of launches. But the fanfare revealed a major flaw in the space: the lack of women helming the funds.
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 146.7%, down from 156.2% the previous quarter.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,364 for an annualized real return of 5.8%.
In the rough year ahead, bonds might be one of the only bright spots. It would mark a dramatic turnaround from 2022, when bonds fell alongside almost every other asset class, posting their worst year in a generation.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December saw a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%. The Investing.com consensus was for 200K jobs gained.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$61.5B was better than the -73.0B Investing.com forecast.
The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 22% from that peak.
A long-watched indicator of which way the stock market is likely to move next has lost predictive power lately, confounding investors who have come to rely on the signal embedded in options trades.
U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.
In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we illustrate the relative attractiveness of select developed international sectors.
Volatility/Downside Protection
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Why Have Equal-Weighted Portfolios Outperformed the Market?
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
Charitable Giving, Looking Back and Forward
Donors were again very generous in their support of their favorite charities in 2022 despite inflation and poor performance across the financial markets.
Five Things to Watch For in the Debt-Ceiling Talks
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 5.6% in December
The latest new orders number at 5.6% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 2.5% estimate. The series is up 11.9% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was down 0.1% MoM and up 2.1% YoY.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 6K, Better Than Forecast
This morning's seasonally adjusted 186K new claims, down 6k from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 205K.
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
Global Economic Outlook: Run-of-the-Mill
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Increase for 4th Consecutive Week
As of January 23, the price of regular and premium gas were up 11 and 9 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.94 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.05. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.62 and is up 1.8% from last week.
Investing With a Flat Yield Curve
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Debt-Limit Fight Risks Early End to Fed Quantitative Tightening
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
IG Outlook: Positive Technicals, Deteriorating Fundamentals
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
CB LEI: 10th Consecutive Decline in December, Recession Signal Continues
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Why I’m Waiting for the Fed to Pivot
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Fortune Doesn’t Always Favor the Bold: The Perils of Concentrated Stock Positions
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
China Stocks on Cusp of Bull Market as Year of the Tiger Ends
China’s equity benchmark is closing in on a bull market as foreign investors rush to buy local shares on bets that the nation’s economic reopening and supportive policies will accelerate the market’s rebound.
US Market Watchers Are Fretting Over the Biggest January Options Expiry in a Decade
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
What the US Debt-Ceiling Battle Means for Your Money
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that the US has hit its federal debt limit, kicking off an intense political battle that puts the global financial system at risk.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 1.55% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.33M was down 1.55% from the November reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.37M.
New Residential Housing Starts Down 1.4% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.382M was slightly above the Investing.com forecast of 1.359M and is a 1.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.401M.
Mid-Cap ETFs’ Moment
Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers her perspective on the allure of multifactor US mid-capitalization strategies for 2023.
A Not-So-Fresh Start
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
Even the Masters of the Universe Are Stumped
Bond traders were once deemed so powerful and all-knowing that Tom Wolfe described them as the “Masters of the Universe” in his classic 1987 novel “The Bonfire of the Vanities” that used Wall Street as its backdrop.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Continues Decline in January
The latest manufacturing index came in at -8.9, up 4.8 from last month's -13.7, marking the index's fifth negative reading in a row and the seventh in the last eight months. The three-month moving average came in at -12.7, down from last month. The six-month outlook came in at 4.9, up from the previous month's -0.9. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.
The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Continue to Decline
Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.
Investors Risk Making a Classic Portfolio Mistake
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Asia: The Early Innings of Innovation?
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
Retail Sales Down 1.15% in December, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
Wall Street Dealers Become Bit Players in US Bond Sales
Wall Street bond dealers are moving rapidly to the sidelines of US Treasury auctions — the very activity that defines their status at the heart of the world’s biggest bond market.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Punchbowl Is Gone
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Unfazed by Airline Grounding, Investors Look Ahead to Earnings
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
Global Credit Outlook: Cautious on Turbulence & Technicals
The Loomis Sayles Global Credit Sector Team discusses rate volatility, possibly deteriorating credit fundamentals and key technicals at play in the market.
Components of the CPI: December
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
December Inflation: The Components
We are now seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
2023 Municipal Bond Playbook: A Page from the 1990s
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
Stocks Falling in Wake of Mixed Banking Results
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
Stocks Grappling With December Inflation Report
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
The Fed Wants Lower Stock Prices
You read that right. The Fed wants lower stock prices.
Bed Bath & Beyond Surges as Meme Rally Sweeps Up Carvana, AMC
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. soared Wednesday, more than wiping out a 46% drop last week and sparking a rally in other so-called meme stocks.
Top US Banks Slash Bond Sales, a Bright Spot for Investors
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Equities Are Searching for Clarity
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
Actionable ideas for a volatile world
With market volatility expected to continue in 2023, the biggest question on investors’ minds is how they can prepare for the investing challenges ahead. While preparing for volatility is a good start, it also brings opportunity if you know where to look.
Emerging-Market Stocks Rise to Six-Month High Versus S&P 500
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
3 Investment Themes for 2023
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
Banks' Revenue Bonanza Seen Under Threat From Looming US Recession
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
Healthcare Stocks: An Innovative Antidote for Volatile Times
Healthcare stocks have remained in vogue through volatile markets, driven by increased interest in the sector during COVID-19.
Things Are Getting Sticky. Prices Always Have Been.
Although inflation appears to have peaked, historical data suggests that prices are unlikely to reverse themselves, which could lead to an extended period of wage inflation.
U.S. Workforce: December 2022 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 223K.
The Dangers of Monte Carlo Simulations
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Declines in December
The headline number for December came in at 89.8, down 2.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 7th percentile in this series.
Value Stocks to Lure Investors During Grim Earnings Season
Investors are bracing for a miserable stretch of earnings reports that will likely extend the dominance of value shares as Corporate America grapples with high inflation and rising borrowing costs, the latest MLIV Pulse survey shows.
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a closer look at this week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
A Primer for Clients to Invest in Commodities
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
The Never-Ending Failure to Identify Future Mutual Fund Outperformers
Countless investment practitioners and academics have unsuccessfully searched for the metric that can successfully identify future mutual fund outperformers. What follows is the saga of the latest failed attempt.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Stay High Quality in 2023
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
China Stock Traders Bet Consumption Will Supercharge 2023 Rally
Chinese equities have been on a tear in the first week of 2023, and investors are gearing up for more gains with consumer-related stocks expected to spearhead the surge.
Women Rarely Manage ETFs. Meet the Team Looking to Change That
The $6.5 trillion US ETF industry boomed in 2022 as innovative product debuts and market volatility fueled a near-record number of launches. But the fanfare revealed a major flaw in the space: the lack of women helming the funds.
Market Cap to GDP: Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 146.7%, down from 156.2% the previous quarter.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,364 for an annualized real return of 5.8%.
Here Are the Top ETFs for Retail Investors in 2023
In the rough year ahead, bonds might be one of the only bright spots. It would mark a dramatic turnaround from 2022, when bonds fell alongside almost every other asset class, posting their worst year in a generation.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: December Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December saw a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%. The Investing.com consensus was for 200K jobs gained.
Federal Reserve Continues Quest to Slow U.S. Economy
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
JPMorgan’s Smash-Hit ‘Income’ ETF Seen Battling Off Bond Market
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Markets Look to Rebound From a Volatile 2022
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
Alternative Investments: The Case for Real Estate
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
November Trade Deficit at $61.5B
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$61.5B was better than the -73.0B Investing.com forecast.
Vehicle Sales Per Capita as of November 2022
The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 22% from that peak.
This Contrarian Stock Market Signal Is Losing Predictive Power
A long-watched indicator of which way the stock market is likely to move next has lost predictive power lately, confounding investors who have come to rely on the signal embedded in options trades.
Stocks Higher to Pare Early-Year Losses
U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.
Quarterly Strategy Report: Global Equity Opportunities
In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we illustrate the relative attractiveness of select developed international sectors.