Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 229K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 227K.
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.01 in May from +0.40 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in May, and two categories deteriorated from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.20 in May from +0.40 in April
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
Cryptocurrencies were supposed to teach traditional financiers a thing or two about how to avoid collapses and crises. Yet it feels like we’re simply repeating history. Specifically, the messy hedge-fund humiliation captured in “When Genius Failed.”
Applications for US unemployment insurance were little changed last week, suggesting the labor market remains exceptionally tight.
Investors are terrified.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.549M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.701M and a 14.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.810M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.695M was down 7% from the April reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.785M.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -3.3, down 5.9 from last month's 2.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 5.6, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at -6.8, down from the previous month's 2.5.
The S&P 500 officially fell into bear market territory during the month of May, although a late month bounce allowed it to finish the month only slightly down from April. It is down about 2.5% thus far in June. The tone of the market has changed, and it doesn’t appear to be calming down anytime soon.
According to my guest today, Greg Taylor, when looking at the performance of the large-cap tech stocks, it was inevitable that the broader market would touch bear market levels. He is here to discuss the market environment, not just in equities, but across asset classes including gold and cryptocurrencies.
While the market chatter in the run-up to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision has understandably focused on whether the increase will be 50 or 75 basis points, the critical issue in play is a broader one.
Despite a lot of confident predictions, nobody knows what will happen at the Federal Reserve Wednesday, never mind what the impact will be on markets.
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
Over the last year, we’ve experienced heightened macroeconomic uncertainty with several events impacting society and financial markets.
With stocks down around 20% year-to-date, it is important for investors to know what kind of bear they are dealing with.
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who’s carefully telegraphed interest rate hikes over four years, looks likely to abandon gradualism and move more forcefully to stamp out inflation along with growing concerns that it will persist.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -0.27% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.52% MoM.
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Applying volatility benchmarks correctly is the key to effective portfolio management.
Several avenues for diversifying cryptocurrency portfolios exist. Investors should weigh the costs and benefits of each of the following three methods.
As of June 13, the price of Regular and Premium were up 13 cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.43 and Georgia has the cheapest at $4.47. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 120.93 and is up 2.1% from last week.
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
New research shows that positive returns to ESG portfolios from 2018-2020 were attributed to increased demand for “green“ stocks, raising the question of whether that outperformance will be sustained.
In our third of three posts on small-cap valuations, let’s examine how focusing on dividend payers amid a volatile market backdrop has provided excess returns, with even lower valuations.
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
The hottest US inflation in four decades will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively this year, and a recession may not be far behind.
US consumer prices surged to a 40-year high, defying expectations that gains would start to moderate after the Federal Reserve began tightening.
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
With National 529 Day last month and graduation season underway, the cost of education is at the top of many people’s minds.
Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.
Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.
Most investors take their cue from stock price volatility.
Crude oil and energy equities have been on a tear for the last two years.
Go around the world in one blog post; Loomis Sayles' Macro Strategies Group shares a visual snapshot of its GDP growth expectations for the months ahead.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 390K.
Let's take a closer look at last week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role.
Gold may be heading for another rally, with warnings over a global economic slowdown paving the way for a fresh push toward $2,000 an ounce.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
Thoughts on recent market volatility and implications for investors from Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -87.08B was better than the -89.5B Investing.com forecast.
The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 23% from that peak.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,778 for an annualized real return of 9.2%.
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May saw 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 325K jobs gained.
Will the Fed pause its rate hikes as markets correct?
Let me take a minute to introduce myself and my publication The FRED Report.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
Markets stabilized in May after one of the worst months since the start of the pandemic.
Bear markets always signal a leadership change within the overall equity market. The leadership going into a bear market is rarely, if ever, the leadership coming out. Because of this rule of thumb, we view bear markets as periods of extreme opportunity.
Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.
One of the most difficult challenges in finance is how to price crypto assets. Bonds pay interest. Stocks pay dividends. What exactly do crypto assets pay?
We strongly believe that the traditional benchmark-led approach to investing in emerging market debt can be far from optimal.
The first half of the year has so far been challenging for investors in municipal bonds.
A fascinating aspect of the financial markets is that long-term returns are driven almost entirely by math, while short-term returns are driven almost entirely by psychology.
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for April, released Friday, shows that core inflation is above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 6.27%. The April Core Consumer Price Index release is currently higher, at 8.26%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
The May US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.0, down 2.2 from the final April figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through April, is now available.
Through rising real yields, a slowing economy and poor seasonality, short-term headwinds remain for gold and precious metals.
Investors in Bitcoin and other digital assets have been pummeled recently by the longest losing streak since 2011.
The headline number of 106.4 was a decrease of 2.2 from the final reading of 108.6 for April.
Growth stocks are under acute pressure as rising interest rates change the dynamics that drive equity valuations.
How can you put the “know, like, trust” element of relationship marketing to work for your business at scale?
Our fiscal deficit, as measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio, has grown to levels that could impede growth, as predicted by financial theory and confirmed by empirical evidence. Moreover, new research shows that our burgeoning deficit could increase risk premiums for both stocks and bonds.
High inflation and the consequences of attempts to curb it are a top concern for today’s investors.
With the release of this morning's report on April's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.25% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 0% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.42% nominal and an increase from the -0.48% real change. The year-over-year metrics are -0.54% nominal and -6.41% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in April rose 0.52% and is up 8.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.27%. The real number is up 2.0% year-over-year. October through March revisions were made.
For investors wondering where to store cash, comparing the maturity profiles on Treasuries with their “risk of loss” history can help reveal where value might lie within shorter maturities.
Volatility/Downside Protection
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 2K
This morning's seasonally adjusted 229K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 227K.
An Established Case and Emerging Trends for Frontier Markets Equity Investing
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth declined in May"
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.01 in May from +0.40 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in May, and two categories deteriorated from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.20 in May from +0.40 in April
The Fixed Income Water is Getting Warmer
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
The Fed Capitulates
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
World’s Central Banks Unleash Most Hawkish Campaign Since 1980s
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
When Crypto’s Own Hedge Fund Geniuses Failed
Cryptocurrencies were supposed to teach traditional financiers a thing or two about how to avoid collapses and crises. Yet it feels like we’re simply repeating history. Specifically, the messy hedge-fund humiliation captured in “When Genius Failed.”
US Jobless Claims Edge Lower, Reflecting Tight Labor Market
Applications for US unemployment insurance were little changed last week, suggesting the labor market remains exceptionally tight.
Investors Are Terrified, So Why Aren’t They Selling?
Investors are terrified.
New Residential Housing Starts Down 14% in May
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.549M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.701M and a 14.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.810M.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 14% from April
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.695M was down 7% from the April reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.785M.
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Activity Weakens in June
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -3.3, down 5.9 from last month's 2.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 5.6, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at -6.8, down from the previous month's 2.5.
The Summer of Bear Markets
The S&P 500 officially fell into bear market territory during the month of May, although a late month bounce allowed it to finish the month only slightly down from April. It is down about 2.5% thus far in June. The tone of the market has changed, and it doesn’t appear to be calming down anytime soon.
According to my guest today, Greg Taylor, when looking at the performance of the large-cap tech stocks, it was inevitable that the broader market would touch bear market levels. He is here to discuss the market environment, not just in equities, but across asset classes including gold and cryptocurrencies.
Federal Reserve Must Do More Than Raise Rates by 75 Points
While the market chatter in the run-up to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision has understandably focused on whether the increase will be 50 or 75 basis points, the critical issue in play is a broader one.
Big Money in Stock Market Is In Mad Dash to Get Out of Fed’s Way
Despite a lot of confident predictions, nobody knows what will happen at the Federal Reserve Wednesday, never mind what the impact will be on markets.
The Big Four: May Real Retail Sales Down 1.2%
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
The State of Sustainable Investing
Over the last year, we’ve experienced heightened macroeconomic uncertainty with several events impacting society and financial markets.
Bear Watch
With stocks down around 20% year-to-date, it is important for investors to know what kind of bear they are dealing with.
Will the Fed’s Third Mandate Derail Markets?
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
Fed Mulls ‘Game Changer’ to Jolt Inflation: Decision Day Guide
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who’s carefully telegraphed interest rate hikes over four years, looks likely to abandon gradualism and move more forcefully to stamp out inflation along with growing concerns that it will persist.
Retail Sales Down 0.3% in May, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -0.27% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.52% MoM.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Utilizing Volatility Benchmarks In Building Long-short Stock Pairs
Applying volatility benchmarks correctly is the key to effective portfolio management.
How to Build a Diversified Crypto Allocation
Several avenues for diversifying cryptocurrency portfolios exist. Investors should weigh the costs and benefits of each of the following three methods.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC at $120
As of June 13, the price of Regular and Premium were up 13 cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.43 and Georgia has the cheapest at $4.47. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 120.93 and is up 2.1% from last week.
Inflation Risk: Persistent or Transitory is the Wrong Question
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Tantrum Rip
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Global Stock Rout Prompts Call for Back-to-Basics Investing
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Mostly Unchanged in May, Inventory, Inflation, Problematic
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
Components of the CPI: May
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Market Cap to GDP: May Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.
May Inflation: The Components
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
Sobering News for ESG Investors
New research shows that positive returns to ESG portfolios from 2018-2020 were attributed to increased demand for “green“ stocks, raising the question of whether that outperformance will be sustained.
Mid-Cap and Small-Cap Dividends Shine amid Volatility
In our third of three posts on small-cap valuations, let’s examine how focusing on dividend payers amid a volatile market backdrop has provided excess returns, with even lower valuations.
FOMC Preview
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
Bond Yields, Dollar Surge With Fed Bets as Recession Risk Grows
The hottest US inflation in four decades will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively this year, and a recession may not be far behind.
‘Straightforward Bad’: Stock Investors React to Inflation Report
US consumer prices surged to a 40-year high, defying expectations that gains would start to moderate after the Federal Reserve began tightening.
Are We Headed for Recession? Gold and Bitcoin Could Offer Some Cover
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
Saving For College: Start Small, But Start Now
With National 529 Day last month and graduation season underway, the cost of education is at the top of many people’s minds.
How I Protect Against the Coming Market Crash
Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.
Today's Options Market Update
Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.
Stock Prices Follow Fundamentals In The Long Run
Most investors take their cue from stock price volatility.
Divergences in the Energy Patch
Crude oil and energy equities have been on a tear for the last two years.
Global GDP Themes and Forecasts (Infographic)
Go around the world in one blog post; Loomis Sayles' Macro Strategies Group shares a visual snapshot of its GDP growth expectations for the months ahead.
U.S. Workforce: May 2022 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 390K.
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a closer look at last week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Gundlach: Oil Could Hit $150 This Summer
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
Saudi Arabia Is Swinging Again – But for How Long?
The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role.
Gold’s Haven Appeal Burnished by Drumbeat of Growth Warnings
Gold may be heading for another rally, with warnings over a global economic slowdown paving the way for a fresh push toward $2,000 an ounce.
Bank Of Canada Lifts Rates By 50 Basis Points Again. Is an Even Steeper Increase in the Cards?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
Schwab Market Update: Stocks Lower as Volatility Continues
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
Quick Thoughts: Navigating Uncertainty In A Rapidly Changing World
Thoughts on recent market volatility and implications for investors from Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover.
April Trade Deficit at $87.07B, Better Than Forecast
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -87.08B was better than the -89.5B Investing.com forecast.
Vehicle Sales Per Capita as of May 2022
The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 23% from that peak.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,778 for an annualized real return of 9.2%.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: May Employment
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May saw 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 325K jobs gained.
Fed Pause? Markets Hope So, But Likely Not Yet.
Will the Fed pause its rate hikes as markets correct?
Quality Growth Is Not Dead
Let me take a minute to introduce myself and my publication The FRED Report.
The Upside to Record High Gas Prices
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
Looking Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June 2022
Markets stabilized in May after one of the worst months since the start of the pandemic.
Bear Markets Signal Leadership Change
Bear markets always signal a leadership change within the overall equity market. The leadership going into a bear market is rarely, if ever, the leadership coming out. Because of this rule of thumb, we view bear markets as periods of extreme opportunity.
2022 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.
Crypto’s Value Comes From Crypto’s Volatility
One of the most difficult challenges in finance is how to price crypto assets. Bonds pay interest. Stocks pay dividends. What exactly do crypto assets pay?
No Stone Unturned
We strongly believe that the traditional benchmark-led approach to investing in emerging market debt can be far from optimal.
Making The Case for Municipal Bonds Despite Recent Volatility
The first half of the year has so far been challenging for investors in municipal bonds.
Making Friends with Bears Through Math
A fascinating aspect of the financial markets is that long-term returns are driven almost entirely by math, while short-term returns are driven almost entirely by psychology.
CPI and PCE: Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for April, released Friday, shows that core inflation is above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 6.27%. The April Core Consumer Price Index release is currently higher, at 8.26%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
May Markit Manufacturing: Growth Slows
The May US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.0, down 2.2 from the final April figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Markets Seek Direction, Hope For Soft Landing
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
April Job Openings & Labor Turnover: Openings, Layoffs Down
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through April, is now available.
Short-Term Headwinds Abound For Gold
Through rising real yields, a slowing economy and poor seasonality, short-term headwinds remain for gold and precious metals.
Crushed by Crypto Losses? Here Are Some Tax Tips.
Investors in Bitcoin and other digital assets have been pummeled recently by the longest losing streak since 2011.
Consumer Confidence Down in May
The headline number of 106.4 was a decrease of 2.2 from the final reading of 108.6 for April.
Capturing Persistent Growth in Volatile Equity Markets
Growth stocks are under acute pressure as rising interest rates change the dynamics that drive equity valuations.
Relationship Marketing: Scaling the “Know, Like, Trust” Factor
How can you put the “know, like, trust” element of relationship marketing to work for your business at scale?
The Growing Threat Posed by the Federal Deficit
Our fiscal deficit, as measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio, has grown to levels that could impede growth, as predicted by financial theory and confirmed by empirical evidence. Moreover, new research shows that our burgeoning deficit could increase risk premiums for both stocks and bonds.
Inflation: Higher but Not Forever
High inflation and the consequences of attempts to curb it are a top concern for today’s investors.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in April
With the release of this morning's report on April's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.25% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 0% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.42% nominal and an increase from the -0.48% real change. The year-over-year metrics are -0.54% nominal and -6.41% real.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in April
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in April rose 0.52% and is up 8.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.27%. The real number is up 2.0% year-over-year. October through March revisions were made.
Storing Cash
For investors wondering where to store cash, comparing the maturity profiles on Treasuries with their “risk of loss” history can help reveal where value might lie within shorter maturities.