Economic Insights

A weaker U.S. dollar cycle is boosting the appeal of emerging market debt, creating a compelling case for investors seeking income and diversification at an opportune time for the asset class.

Treasury’s pivot toward long-bond buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.

In an ambitious and much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh made the most market-moving news when he stated clearly that unless “underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed … we have work to do.”

In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and widely known as “Mr. Valuation,” examines 15 dividend-paying companies selected for their potential to generate rapidly growing income. These are not simply the fastest dividend growers in the market. Each company was also chosen for its financial strength, operating history, and current valuation.

The term “backfire” originally referred to the intentional burning of underbrush when there is a wildfire on the horizon, to keep a bad situation from turning worse. Over time, however, backfire has come to mean an action that makes a bad situation worse.

We often hear that consumption accounts for roughly 70% of the US economy and that, as long as consumers keep spending, the economy will continue to grow. There is certainly some truth to that.

This week, we take on the objection that scares people most: that AI and the data centers that run it are coming for their jobs. Let's separate what people currently believe from what the data currently shows, and then talk about why the jobs argument, even where it has merit, points toward building more data centers rather than fewer.

We think it’s time for investors to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core (plus) bond portfolios. Valuations have become more attractive across fixed income, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels. We share our views on when and why.

This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.

When a driver sees an unfamiliar light on the dashboard, the hope is that it’s a false positive that will go away on its own. But a persistent warning must be addressed before it becomes a bigger problem. The global economy is moving forward with several warning lights flashing, and those signals are becoming harder to ignore.

For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.

Funding a college education can be one of the biggest financial goals for a family, and it often requires a comprehensive approach.

In markets that have faced multiple sources of uncertainty this year, small-cap stocks have quietly moved to the front of the pack. Unlike the S&P 500, where performance has been heavily influenced by changing AI narratives, smaller companies have seen earnings improve across a broader set of sectors that are more closely tied to the overall US economy.

Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.

Investors who focus only on tomorrow’s gold price may miss the larger purpose of owning precious metals. Gold and silver are not merely vehicles for chasing a rally. They are tools for preserving purchasing power during periods of fiscal and monetary instability.

On Wednesday, August 26, 2026, Northern Trust Asset Management expanded its suite of distributing ladder ETFs with the launch of eight new funds. The newly launched ETFs offer additional target maturity options for Northern Trust’s existing strategies.

Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department surprised the bond market by announcing that it would at least double selected long-end bond buybacks.

The bond market rarely dominates the financial headlines. But with a light economic data release schedule and earnings season largely in the rearview mirror, the bond market took center stage last week.

Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement

U.S. labor force participation is declining due to an aging population, slowing immigration, and other factors. This could impact economic growth and earnings moving forward.

Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.

In choppy waters, many novice ship passengers will experience sea sickness. The only sure remedy is to wait it out. Symptoms will pass, as will the rough waters.

The most durable assumption in global investing is also the most outdated: that the United States is fundamentally a consumption story and China is fundamentally a capital-expenditure story.

Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).

Markets continue to hold up remarkably well as we move through the traditionally difficult second half of August, but the risks beneath the surface have shifted. Commodity prices are rising, money growth remains stronger than I would like, and long-term interest rates are again testing important levels.

James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief political advisor, once quipped that if he could be reincarnated he wanted to come back as the bond market because “You can intimidate everybody.”

Interest rates are moving higher, and the forces behind the move appear to be persistent inflation and an economy that continues to grow more strongly than many anticipated. Economic growth is generally advantageous, and moderate inflation is a normal feature of a healthy economy.

We think the gap between women’s confidence and ability underscores that effective plan communications must educate, engage and empower participants across the board. Women may worry more, but they’re clearly knowledgeable and forward-thinking—qualities that can be reinforced. Men may register more confidence but could still use refreshers on financial basics.

Macro strategists and global portfolio managers have their hands full on this final week of August. As we said recently, this is no time to mail it in before Labor Day in the U.S. And for equity traders and bottom-up analysts, NVIDIA (NVDA) writes the storyline in the sessions ahead. The world's most valuable company reports Q2 results after the bell on Wednesday.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Without a doubt, the number-one story in the financial markets of late has been the run-up in longer-dated Treasury (UST) yields. Indeed, headlines in both traditional and social media have centered on the fact that bond yields are now at levels not seen in nearly 20 years, or the time period right before the Financial Crisis hit in 2007.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.

For the past five weeks, markets have been focused on a steady stream of corporate earnings, supported by upbeat management commentary and another quarter of strong results. But with second quarter 2026 earnings season nearing its end, investors' attention is shifting back to the macro backdrop.

The debt problem is real. It just isn’t a bomb. As we’ve written before, the debt and deficit problem isn’t what you think. It’s a tax on future growth, collected slowly, and normal interest rates are simply the price of money doing its job, not the crisis the headlines keep selling.

The minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released this week, revealed a committee that remained broadly hawkish. Policymakers continued to characterize inflation as elevated and emphasized that upside inflation risks persist.

To some, the debate over inflation targeting is largely an academic exercise. But its outcome will have direct consequences for the paths of global interest rates and global markets. Some background on how we arrived at this juncture, and where we might go from here, follows.

In the early weeks of Kevin Warsh’s start as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, there has been renewed focus on how “underlying” inflation should be measured to guide decisions on interest rates.

Artificial intelligence is the topic of the day. It seems everyone has an opinion but not much actual factual knowledge. I’ve been dragging emails and research into my AI folder for a very long time. Today (and next week) I review those emails, as we are going to look at the reasons there is so much opposition to AI data centers.

U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.

On August 19, the US Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its long-term bond buybacks, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, between September 9 and the November Quarterly Refunding. The announcement followed a rise in the 30-year Treasury yield to roughly 5.3% and is drawing attention to how the Treasury may respond if pressure at the long end persists.

Outdoor sports and exercise are more difficult at the height of summer. Runners slow their paces, and teams start their practices early to beat the heat. Competitors must marshal their energy carefully to perform at their best.

High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.

After recovering from the “tariff tantrum” that saw stocks of all sizes and styles bottoming out in early April of 2025, equities finished 2025 in admirable shape, carrying the positive momentum into 2026.

The headline U.S. unemployment rate has been falling for several months, but a closer look at who is leaving the workforce – and who isn’t entering or returning to it – reveals why average wages are stagnating, and why labor markets aren’t a source of inflationary pressure.

For many of the past several years, investor enthusiasm has been concentrated in a narrow group of AI-related and technology stocks. As liquidity conditions tighten and speculation begins to recede, broader market fundamentals are gaining importance.

There’s new life in the gold market, and that momentum could represent a buying opportunity for bullion-enthused investors seeking income. The NEOS Gold High Income ETF (IAUI) is ready to meet the moment.