Economic Insights

In the AI-led markets of recent years, companies with distant profit potential have been favored. But higher interest rates could change the equation and create a new advantage for value stocks, whose businesses tend to have more visible cash flows in the shorter term.

Central banks are tightening, and stocks are still within reach of their highs. The Fed hiked on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% this month, its highest level since 2002. Even so, the S&P 500 sits within roughly 2.5% of its record, and Japanese equities recently set fresh all-time highs.

As we round the three-quarter pole and head into the final stretch of 2026, the prevailing investment narrative has, of course, been AI, along with its pros and cons. Since March, when the Iran conflict began, there has been a secondary drumbeat that continues to get louder and louder: the narrative surrounding bond prices, interest rates, inflation, and the economy.

In light of accelerating global fragmentation and geopolitical conflict, many governments and businesses are investing in resilience. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of AI, a technology that can expand the frontier of what is possible. As a result, technology security is becoming a pillar of national economic security strategy.

Q3 was a period of transition in the bond market thanks to Federal Reserve changes, a surge of AI-driven debt issuance, and rising interest rates.

In a recent webcast, Ari Polychronopoulos, TMX VettaFi’s head of RAFI Indices™, and Brent Leadbetter, TMX VettaFi’s head of RAFI Distribution, discussed growing market concentration risk.

Inflation, geopolitical fragmentation and concentrated, AI-driven markets have put a premium on investors’ ability to navigate directional moves across asset classes. We think systematic trend-following strategies can help chart a course. But how they’re designed matters.

One of the hallmarks for the U.S. economy over the last few years has been its resiliency. This calendar year has been no exception as the war in the Middle East led many a market prognosticator to pencil in the potential for a recession stemming from the effects of the Middle East war.

In a week marked by continued concerns about rising interest rates, the bond market found some relief after two large Treasury auctions of 10- and 30-year securities were well received by investors. The week’s most significant development came Thursday, when questions emerged about OpenAI’s revenue. Reports suggested revenue was running at a $50 billion annual pace, well below the $70 billion investors had expected.

In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses how tech strength is hiding broader market weakness, as higher rates begin to weigh on rate-sensitive sectors.

Gold and silver finally put a winning week on the board. But the more revealing development is what happened while prices were falling: investors poured billions into gold-backed funds, and China stepped up its purchases of physical gold.

Every time I clean out my wardrobe, I find items I have not worn in years but cannot quite bring myself to give away. Maybe they will come back into fashion. Maybe they’ll fit again one day. Or maybe getting rid of them simply feels harder than buying them did.

Sound and stable money promotes long-term economic growth. And “independent” central banks are more likely to deliver it. For most of the 1800s, the US was on the gold standard, which meant policy was insulated from political interference. But once the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, it became susceptible to political pressures.

Stocks enjoyed a profitable week in the lead-up to third quarter earnings season. The tech-heavy NASDAQ started the week strong, ending Monday at a record high.

Global income strategies offer a compelling value proposition for investors: a steady stream of income generated from dividend-paying equities, government bonds and structured instruments like equity-linked notes (ELNs) from around the world.

Global equity markets finished the third quarter only modestly higher, but the path beneath the surface was anything but calm. The AI and momentum trade that powered markets in the first half unwound sharply in July, leadership broadened through August as capital returned to areas that had been left behind, and the market narrowed again in September.

While the current bull market celebrates its fourth birthday next week, the average bull market lasts about five and a half years. Yet there has been nothing average about this one.

Bank lending rarely commands the attention that payrolls, inflation or consumer spending do. But it helps determine how much momentum the economy can sustain. The Role of C&I Loans: Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, the workhorse of corporate finance, pay for everything from working capital to machinery and software.

The outlook for government policy, bond markets, and monetary policy appears less settled than it has been for much of the post-COVID period. The debate about public debt, the functioning of the Treasury market, inflation persistence, and the future path of interest rates has intensified. Global bond yields have been soaring.

Criticism of the AI and data center investment boom often centers on two distinct employment concerns. The first is that broader AI adoption could displace workers across industries as firms increasingly automate certain tasks. The second is that while data center construction generates jobs, these facilities require relatively few permanent employees once operational.

With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades.

Our Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Sustainable Investing, Kris Nelson, sees markets balancing several competing forces this week, from renewed oil-price volatility to softer labor data and increasingly demanding expectations around AI earnings.

Taylor Topousis and Christian Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Earlier last week, a supertanker loading crude in the Gulf of Oman was fixed at $1.01 million a day for a voyage to Asia, with another deal reportedly agreed at $1.16 million.

Higher interest rates are dominating the news of late, raising more questions than answers. Why are they moving up? Can they be tamed? And in the credit world, the question has arisen: as rates rise, are we at risk of loans underperforming?

The market continues to hold near all-time highs despite pressure from higher bond yields. This week brought relatively little economic data, but the important takeaway is that the underlying economy still looks strong. High-frequency indicators, jobless claims and consumer spending data continue to point to solid growth, while this week’s CPI, PPI and retail sales reports will provide the next important test for both the economy and the Federal Reserve.

For most of the past year, investors have been trying to answer what seems like a fairly straightforward question: How can the stock market continue to rise when interest rates keep moving higher? The conventional answer is that interest rates simply do not matter as much as they used to.

By generation, Gen Z and Millennials now make up 88% of online betting activity. Gen X trails at 9%. Boomers barely register. As recently as this spring, Millennials were the bigger group. Then Gen Z passed them, and Bank of America called it a “turning point.”

We have a number of logistics routes that run close to our home, which can snarl traffic. Freight rail lines cut across local roads, and long columns of trucks crowd local highways. Transit delays are frequent, and their duration always seems proportional to how much of a hurry I am in.

For insurance investors, bond yields play a defining role in long-term planning, with the effects of their levels and movements rippling across balance sheets. Liabilities may move inversely to asset values, and today’s investment decisions have implications far into the future. That makes bond yields critical variables for prudent insurance investors. There are also insights in the “why” behind higher rates.

The Fed's recent rate increase may not develop into a hiking cycle as extensive as the one that began in 2022 because much of today's inflation pressure comes from supply constraints rather than broad economic overheating, where demand exceeds the economy's productive capacity.

While a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

I write my letter as if I’m writing to friends, which I consider you to be. How many times do you get together with friends and you focus on just one topic? The usual friendly dinner conversation covers lots of topics. This week is a multiple topic letter, but with so much happening, how could it not be?

Western Asset’s Ion Dan explains why he thinks the fundamental case for agency mortgage-backed securities has strengthened.

US Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield rising roughly 45 basis points over the past month to about 5.25%. That has understandably revived concerns about what higher bond yields could mean for equities.

The S&P 500 hit a new record high in 3Q as strong earnings offset headwinds from oil returning to $100/bbl, the Fed hiking rates, and the 10-year Treasury crossing 5%.

Emerging markets (EMs) have historically been associated with commodity exports and low-cost manufacturing. Those characteristics remain relevant in parts of the investable universe, but the sources of competitive advantage have broadened materially.

With markets around the globe rattled by the bond sell-off, it may be time to pivot towards safe havens that still generate strong yield.

Headlines are popping up left and right about how high the 10-year Treasury yield has risen. While investors make decisions about what is the “right” longer-term cost of government debt, many journalists focus on single-factor ways of viewing it.

In 1954, golfer Tommy Bolt won the inaugural Rubber City Open at Firestone Country Club in Akron. Four years later, he returned to Akron as the reigning US Open champion, where in the third round he was paired with an 18-year-old amateur making his tour debut.

The U.S. economy is handing investors a muddled picture. Housing is stuck, hiring is lopsided, and households feel worse than the jobs data suggest. Add a string of geopolitical shocks and a Federal Reserve (Fed) under new leadership still establishing its reaction function, and the signals markets rely on are harder to read. Investors will have to adjust to this market, where clarity is scarce.

ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.

Stocks chopped this summer as high hopes for AI product and infrastructure development were offset by rising inflation and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.