Punctuated Equilibrium

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A list of Dan Richards’ previous articles appears at the end of this article.

Recently, I hosted a series of luncheon roundtables for groups of financial advisors. During those, we discussed the disorienting pace at which the investment industry is changing.

For many advisors, the holidays were a time to reflect on plans for the coming year. If you’re among that group, here’s some food for thought as you consider the direction of your business in 2010.

I’ve been a participant in and observer of the investment industry for over twenty years. At no time can I recall anything approaching today’s level of angst about the future.

Part of that relates to investor discontent arising from 2008’s stock market collapse.

That discontent, however, misses an important point.   We’re dealing with a more fundamental issue than the recent market turmoil.  We’re going through one of those rare periods of ground-shaking change that have taken place throughout history, something that was in the works well before last fall’s market excitement.

The late Harvard scientist Stephen Jay Gould first identified a concept called “punctuated equilibrium.” His core idea was that while change is a constant, the pace of change isn’t. For millennia, species have gone through centuries of slow, almost imperceptible change – interspersed with periods of incredibly rapid and intense shifts.

The same phenomenon has taken place throughout human history.

For example, in 1800 Napoleon’s troops travelled using roughly the same technology and at approximately the same speed as Caesar’s army almost 2,000 years earlier.  By 1850, railroads had forever changed how armies would travel.

The investment industry is going through that same sort of epochal transformation – in which all the traditional rules of the game are up for grabs.

More demanding customers

Of course, it’s not just the investment industry that’s going through this change – it’s hard to find a sector of manufacturing or retailing that hasn’t gone through a fundamental shake-up over the past ten years.

A few common patterns are driving these changes.

First and foremost are brutally demanding, intensely value-focused customers – today, providing tepid value means you’re toast.

When I interviewed investors twenty years ago, the decision to to work with an advisor was typically driven by historical relationships. Back then, investors told me “It may have taken my advisor a while to win me over, but now that I’ve started working with him, I’m going to stay unless he gives me a reason to go.”

Now I hear an entirely different story. Investors today tell me “I may have worked with my advisor for five, ten years or longer, but I’m going to go unless she gives me a reason to stay.”

The change in the driver of decision making from yesterday’s relationship to today’s value has transformed industry after industry – look no further than automobiles, where in the 1960s loyalty ruled the day and men proudly branded themselves as “Ford buyers” or “GM buyers.”   Today, cost, performance, image and factors such as environmental awareness weigh more heavily in the decision making process.