To the dismay of some and the delight of others, Donald Trump could win reelection in 2020, according to Greg Valliere. Trump, he said, has no strong primary challengers among Republicans, nor are there any Democrats likely to defeat him in the general election.
Valliere is the chief global strategist for Horizon Investments. He was a keynote speaker at the FPA Norcal conference in San Francisco on May 29.
To be fair, Valliere did not predict that Trump would even seek reelection. Nor did he say that he favored Trump. Valliere was careful to note that he takes a nonpartisan position on political issues.
I’ve covered Valliere’s talks in the past and his track record is mixed. In a talk in 2016, he predicted a Hillary Clinton victory – with the only question being the size of her electoral margin.
If Trump wants the nomination, he will get it assuming his health is okay, according to Valliere. Trump is about to turn 72, and Valliere sounded skeptical as to whether he will remain healthy enough to serve another four-year term.
Among Republican contenders, Valliere said that John Kasich won’t beat Trump, because in 2016 he lost every primary except Ohio, where he was the governor. Neither Marco Rubio nor Mitt Romney can prevail, he said. Nikki Haley is a viable candidate, according to Valliere, but she won’t be ready in 2020.
Who do the Democrats have? Valliere was pessimistic. Bernie Sanders, he said, is still infuriated by not getting a fair shot at the nomination in 2016. Joe Biden is too long winded. The great unknown, Valliere said, is Elizabeth Warren, who is an “electrifying demagogue” but “quite polarizing.” There could be some unexpected challengers, he said, like Senators Kamala Harris (CA), Corey Booker (NJ), Kristen Gillibrand (NY), or John Hickenlooper (governor of Colorado).
“The opposition is pretty inept right now,” he said. “Democrats lack an agenda.” They might coalesce around health care or education, but that’s not clear yet. “Democrats need fresh blood,” Valliere said. Among Democratic leadership, Nancy Pelosi is 78, Steny Hoyer is 78, Jim Clyburn is 77, Bernie Sanders is 76 and Joe Biden is 75.
“But nobody could easily take out Trump,” Valliere said.
Valliere dismissed the likelihood of an outsider, like Oprah Winfrey, serving. As an outsider, he said, she would lack the knowledge of “how to get things done.”
“Trump ruined it for amateur politicians,” he said.
The mid-term elections
There won’t be a Democratic wave in the mid-terms, according to Valliere.
Low unemployment, strong GDP growth and a modest success in North Korea are going to help the Republicans. “I’m not sure I’m willing to predict a tidal wave,” he said.
Part of the reason is in the numbers, Valliere explained. In the House, the Democrats need to “flip” 23 seats. That’s possible, he said, because since FDR, the party winning the presidential election has, on average, lost 25 seats in the subsequent mid-term.
But House seats are heavily gerrymandered – much more so than in FDR’s time – so the chances of achieving that transition are limited.
In the Senate, Valliere said, there are 34 seats up for reelection. But 25 of those seats are held by Democrats – 10 of which are in states won by Trump and 5 of those in states he won by a landslide, like West Virginia. Republicans might even gain a seat or two in the Senate, he said.
The issues in 2017 and 2018
“Whether you like it or not,” Valliere said, “2017 was a pretty good year, but 2018 is a different story. This will be a much tougher year.”
In 2017, Trump secured a major tax cut, reduced regulation and improved “business psychology,” Valliere said. Trump did this by intimidating Republicans to not say anything negative about him, according to Valliere. As a result, he has an 80% approval rating among Republicans, who fear having to face a primary challenge. All that was achieved in spite of the chaotic environment.
This year, several negatives have emerged. The budget was a “pig out,” he said, loaded with excessive spending. Valliere claimed that deficits would “irritate” the bond markets, but acknowledged that the market has yet to reflect that sentiment. “At some point, the enormity of these deficits have to be addressed,” he said, but that won’t happen because of a lack of political will.
Trade protection has emerged as a major issue, because of Trump’s “dystopian” view of America, Valliere said. Protection is welcomed by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, he said, but not by the majority of Americans. Trump will negotiate by making excessive demands and scaling back to a more modest proposal. Valliere said he expects a “rocky road” before an outcome on trade is reached.
There will be an imminent departure from the Supreme Court, Valliere predicted. He mentioned Justice Kennedy, who will be 81 this year.
The Mueller investigation will be politicized, Valliere said. Rudy Giuliani will make this “all about Mueller.” He predicted there will be more indictments coming from Mueller’s team of “pit bull” attorneys. He said that Jared Kushner could be indicted, in which case Trump would likely pardon him.
But impeachment is highly unlikely, according to Valliere. There aren’t the 67 votes needed in the Senate to convict. If a conviction were to happen, he said, the markets would be happy with a President Pence.
Valliere said that Michael Cohen represents a large vulnerability for Trump, based on tape recordings or documents he might have.
Mueller has benefited from a lot of people who have “coped a plea” and are “singing like canaries.”
“This is going to get a lot juicier,” Valliere said.
Read more articles by Robert Huebscher
To the dismay of some and the delight of others, Donald Trump could win reelection in 2020, according to Greg Valliere. Trump, he said, has no strong primary challengers among Republicans, nor are there any Democrats likely to defeat him in the general election.
