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The more I review the research, the more convinced I am that giving advice in almost every context is ill-advised.
But I’m receiving a lot of advice these days.
I got a long e-mail from a reader telling me, “not go anywhere,” “stay inside” and “don’t even go to the grocery store or pharmacy,” with a hyperlink to a video by someone describing himself as a “health care worker,” who discussed an elaborate process for decontaminating food packaging.
What this person didn’t know is that I have been posting extensively on social media, trying to give a balanced view of the impact of COVID-19 on the economy. To ensure my information is accurate, I spend countless hours reviewing credible sources and distilling the findings before posting them.
My reader had no way of knowing my interest in this subject or the depth of my efforts to understand it. He also didn’t consider whether this advice was generally applicable. Should health care workers heed it? What about grocery store employees or single mothers in dire economic straits?
That’s one of the problems with giving advice – especially unsolicited advice.
Unintended consequences
Timothy Kreider, in a thoughtful article, recounted his unhappy experience receiving advice (solicited and unsolicited) when confronting a “deeply personal situation.” He quoted this observation, by David Foster Wallace, in The Pale King, “advice – even wise advice – actually does nothing for the advisee, changes nothing inside, and can actually cause confusion when the advisee is made to feel the wide gap between the comparative simplicity of the advice and the totally muddled complication of his own situation and path.”
I share Kreider’s dim view of most self-help books. He believes many authors of these books are “charlatans,” writing books that appeal to “confused dupes.”
His most poignant observation is, “Possible outcomes of giving advice span a spectrum from having no effect at all to irreparably damaging the relationship.”
I embrace this conclusion: If decisions were easy or self-evident they wouldn’t be decisions.
What’s obvious to you …
How does this apply to you, when confronted with anxious clients who want to know, “is it different this time?”
Every advisor I know will respond that it isn’t, often quoting this overused observation by Sir John Templeton: “The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘this time it’s different.’”
I posted this question on social media: “What if you’re wrong and it is different this time? What does that mean, as a practical matter?”
The answers ranged from, “the economic impact would be longer and more devastating than anything in our experience,” to “the wisdom of buying ammunition and expanding your garden.”
It may be obvious to you that it’s not different this time, but telling this to a client does little to ease their anxiety. Instead of giving advice, consider this approach:
- Ask questions to fully explore the nature of the anxiety being expressed;
- Ask follow-up questions to clarify, if necessary.
- Ask if data about past bear markets would be helpful. If it would, share the data.
Resist the temptation to accompany data with advice.
I recently responded in this manner to someone who contacted me. His e-mail was filled with anxiety and dread about the current crisis.
I provided this data:
25 bear markets and 26 bull markets in the S&P 500 since 1928
299 days: Average length of bear market
1,003 days: Average length of bull market
36%: average loss in bear market
112%: average gain in bull market
77% of the time, we are in a bull market.
23% of the time, we are in a bear market.
I told him I couldn’t answer his “is it different this time” question because I didn’t know. I said I coped with my own anxiety by meditating, listening to classical music and never turning on the television. I asked if he had tried doing something similar.
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He responded with a very grateful e-mail, telling me how much my “advice” comforted him, even though technically I never gave him any advice.
I offer this challenge: Don’t give advice.
I took it myself.
If someone is troubled by a decision, it’s insulting to offer them a glib solution. What I would do might not be well-advised for them.
Accepting this challenge is daunting. Aren’t you in in the business of giving advice?
Yet, recognizing your limitations, and respecting the intelligence of your clients, may be a far better course of conduct than giving advice.
Did I just violate my own rule?
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