What to Expect in the Last Consumer Price Inflation Report of the Year, and What’s Ahead

The path of US inflation in 2023 may have more surprises in store after a year in which consumers suffered the biggest cost-of-living hit in 40 years, spurring steep interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and spooking investors.

The November consumer price index due Tuesday, the final report of 2022, is projected to show that while inflation is moderating, it’s running at about three times its pre-pandemic pace. Excluding food and energy, the CPI is seen rising 0.3% for a second month, and 6.1% from a year ago.

The report will reinforce the narrative that inflation has peaked, said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC. But “there’s still going be some potholes — at least — that we hit in the next few months in terms of the inflation outlook.”

The trajectory of inflation next year will depend on whether there’s further tempering in core goods prices, when and how much rents cool and to what extent wage growth — particularly in services — moderates.

Here’s a look at what economists are expecting for the CPI in November and the months ahead:

Wall Street’s View: November CPI

  • Median forecast for CPI: 0.3% MoM, core CPI 0.3%
  • Bloomberg Economics expects 0.2% CPI and 0.3% core CPI
  • Year-over-year CPI seen decelerating to 7.3%, core down to 6.1%
  • Other core CPI forecasts: Goldman Sachs Group Inc., 0.3%; JPMorgan Chase & Co., 0.4%; and Morgan Stanley, 0.3%