No Sign of Bubble Forming for BofA: ‘This Bull Market Has Legs’

Bank of America Corp. sees little evidence to support the worriers on Wall Street who say the stock market has risen too far, too fast and is approaching bubble territory.

The rally in US equities that began last year, as sharp as it has been, doesn’t reflect conditions seen in prior boom-and-bust cycles, such as big gaps between share prices and their values, or the significant use of leverage, according to the bank’s strategists led by Savita Subramanian.

The S&P 500 Index edged lower Monday, extending last week’s decline, with traders on alert for a key inflation reading Tuesday. The market will focus on whether consumer-price pressure remains stubbornly sticky, which could push bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts deeper into 2024. That scenario may add to concern that US stocks are looking stretched after the benchmark gained in 16 of the past 19 weeks, setting a series of record highs.

Most Historical Asset Bubbles Have Seen Volatility Rise Substantially Prior to the Bubble Peak As Assets Begin to Trade More on Momentum and Less on Any Fundamental Grounding

Source: Bank of America

Still, Subramanian points to strong earnings and a resilient economy and sees more room for gains. She lifted her S&P 500 year-end target to 5,400 last week, among the highest on Wall Street, implying more than 5% upside from current levels.

“Sentiment has warmed up on equities since mid-2023, driving our slightly lower level of conviction in an up market, but is nowhere near bullish levels of prior market peaks,” the firm’s head of US equity and quantitative strategy wrote. “In our view, this bull market has legs.”

Valuations Are Well Below Prior Peaks