If you want a glimpse of a changing global order, go to Singapore. That’s what I did last month, when I served as the S. Rajaratnam Professor of Strategic Studies at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies and met extensively with leading thinkers and government officials.
Singapore is a mind-blowing success story that reminds us how distinctive America’s post-World War II global project was — and how much uncertainty today’s more unilateral, abrasive superpower is creating for smaller states.
Singapore gained its independence unwillingly in 1965, after being booted from the larger Malaysian Federation. It was immediately at risk of being engulfed by radicalism convulsing the region. Yet it went on to become a hub of trade and technology with living standards among the highest in the world. Its small but tough military, and its strategy-minded elite, have helped Singapore punch above its global weight. The island has become a model for other nations that aspire to be “the Singapore of” somewhere — small states that somehow make it big.
The country’s rise reflected potent advantages: its strategic location, near the Strait of Malacca, at the confluence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans; the stability of its governance, rooted in a unique blend of Eastern and Western traditions; and the visionary leadership of founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew. But the country’s leaders also recognize that Singapore might not have survived, let alone thrived, absent a global system led by the US.
Lee long argued that America’s war in Vietnam was a bloody success: By holding the line for a decade, the US bought crucial time for Singapore and its neighbors to stabilize themselves both economically and politically. More broadly, America secured the seas, discouraged violent aggression, underwrote free trade and globalization, and provided public goods that a micro-state could hardly have secured alone.
When the Pentagon lost access to air and naval bases in the Philippines in the 1990s, Singapore quietly welcomed US forces. A close security partnership with Washington remains a cornerstone of its foreign policy and a counterweight to Chinese power.
That balancing act is tricky, given that Singapore has an ethnic Chinese majority and Beijing is its largest trade partner: When I visited, I saw plenty of electric vehicles made by BYD. Changes in US policy aren’t making things any simpler.
Singapore has been buffeted by President Donald Trump’s tariffs — applied even though America has a trade surplus with Singapore — and threats to seize territory from weaker countries. Many Singaporean observers are bemused by a president who talks about making America great again, but attacks its university ecosystem, the capacity of its governing institutions, its system of checks and balances, and other pillars of American strength.
In April, Singapore’s then-defense minister declared that America had shifted from being a system-manager to acting like “a landlord seeking rent.” In his speech marking Singapore’s 60th birthday last month, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong bluntly said that it is now “every country for itself.”
There’s a consensus, among Singaporean leaders, that the age of a US-led international order is over. There’s less certainty about what comes next.
One relatively favorable possibility is that a more narrowly self-interested, transactional America would still compete with other big actors, thereby preserving some space for the world’s smaller states. An uglier scenario is an aggressively acquisitive America shredding international norms, such as the prohibition on territorial conquest, as well as the rules-based trading system that Singapore has banked on, and using its power for more nakedly exploitive ends. Or perhaps America could simply turn inward, leaving the field to others and unleashing conflict and nuclear proliferation across Asia. Regardless of the outcome, Singaporean leaders are preparing their population for a very different world.
The country is hardly helpless. A more transactional America will still want some partnership with Singapore because the island has things — military access, help in securing pharmaceutical and semiconductor supply chains — that America needs. Singapore is already a standout on military spending, allocating around 3% of GDP to defense.
The government is making a virtue of technological upheaval by integrating artificial intelligence into the workings of government and seeking to train one of the world’s most AI-literate workforces. Singapore is also doubling down on ties with neighbors: A special economic zone in Johor will give Singapore-based multinationals access to Malaysian workers and space. But near-term optimism about Singapore’s prospects is clouded by some larger, longer-term concerns.
Singapore is a case study in demographic degradation: Its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has long been near the world’s lowest. Immigration helps but also strains the social fabric. Given that many recent immigrants are Chinese, this poses geopolitical complications as well.
Not least, the world that enabled Singapore’s rise is passing, and what comes next may be less benign. The Singapore story is remarkable. But in a shifting global landscape, the next chapter may be harder than the last.
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